Time to extinction in relation to mating system and type of density regulation in populations with two sexes

Adult sex ratios: causes of variation and implications for animal and human societies

Converging lines of inquiry from across the social and biological sciences target the adult sex ratio (ASR; the proportion of males in the adult population) as a fundamental population-level determinant of behavior. The ASR, which indicates the relative number of potential mates to competitors in a population, frames the selective arena for competition, mate choice, and social interactions. Here we review a growing literature, focusing on methodological developments that sharpen knowledge of the demographic variables underlying ASR variation, experiments that enhance understanding of the consequences of ASR imbalance across societies, and phylogenetic analyses that provide novel insights into social evolution. We additionally highlight areas where research advances are expected to make accelerating contributions across the social sciences, evolutionary biology, and biodiversity conservation.

Decomposing demographic contributions to the effective population size with moose as a case study

Levels of random genetic drift are influenced by demographic factors, such as mating system, sex ratio and age structure. The effective population size (N_e ) is a useful measure for quantifying genetic drift. Evaluating relative contributions of different demographic factors to N_e is therefore important to identify what makes a population vulnerable to loss of genetic variation. Until recently, models for estimating N_e have required many simplifying assumptions, making them unsuitable for this task. Here, using data from a small, harvested moose population, we demonstrate the use of a stochastic demographic framework allowing for fluctuations in both population size and age distribution to estimate and decompose the total demographic variance and hence the ratio of effective to total population size (N_e /N) into components originating from sex, age, survival and reproduction. We not only show which components contribute most to N_e /N currently, but also which components have the greatest potential for changing N_e /N. In this relatively long-lived polygynous system we show that N_e /N is most sensitive to the demographic variance of older males, and that both reproductive autocorrelations (i.e., a tendency for the same individuals to be successful several years in a row) and covariance between survival and reproduction contribute to decreasing N_e /N (increasing genetic drift). These conditions are common in nature and can be caused by common hunting strategies. Thus, the framework presented here has great potential to increase our understanding of the demographic processes that contribute to genetic drift and viability of populations, and to inform management decisions.

Capture from the wild has long-term costs on reproductive success in Asian elephants

Capturing wild animals is common for conservation, economic or research purposes. Understanding how capture itself affects lifetime fitness measures is often difficult because wild and captive populations live in very different environments and there is a need for long-term life-history data. Here, we show how wild capture influences reproduction in 2685 female Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) used in the timber industry in Myanmar. Wild-caught females demonstrated a consistent reduction in breeding success relative to captive-born females, with significantly lower lifetime reproduction probabilities, lower breeding probabilities at peak reproductive ages and a later age of first reproduction. Furthermore, these negative effects lasted for over a decade, and there was a significant influence on the next generation: wild-caught females had calves with reduced survival to age 5. Our results suggest that wild capture has long-term consequences for reproduction, which is important not only for elephants, but also for other species in captivity.

Towards a predictive conservation biology: the devil is in the behaviour

One of the most important challenges in conservation biology is to predict the viability of populations of vulnerable and threatened species. This requires that the demographic stochasticity strongly affecting the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of especially small populations is correctly estimated and modelled. Here, we summarize theoretical evidence showing that the demographic variance in population dynamics is a key parameter determining the probability of extinction and also is directly linked to the magnitude of the genetic drift in the population. The demographic variance is dependent on the mating system, being larger in a polygynous than in monogamous populations. Understanding factors affecting intersexual differences in mating success is therefore essential in explaining variation in the demographic variance. We hypothesize that the strength of sexual selection, for example, quantified by the Bateman gradient, may be a useful predictor of the magnitude of the demographic stochasticity and hence the genetic drift in the population. We provide results from a field study of moose that support this claim. Thus, including central principles from behavioural ecology may increase the reliability of population viability analyses through an improvement of our understanding of factors affecting stochastic influences on population dynamics and evolutionary processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity

A population's effective size (N_e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N_e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N_e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N_e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N_e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N_e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N_e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N_e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N_e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N_e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N_e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N_e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N_e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N_e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N_e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N_e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes.

Sexing free-ranging adult Cuvier's beaked whales ( Ziphius cavirostris ) using natural marking thresholds and pigmentation patterns

Sex identification of adult cetaceans is an important ecological parameter that should be incorporated into studies such as population dynamics and animal behavior. In Cuvier’s beaked whale ( Ziphius cavirostris ), sex determination may be achieved through genetics, observation of genitals, the presence/absence of erupted teeth, and calf association. However, these features are difficult to ascertain due to the shy behavior of this species. Therefore, this study aimed to create a robust sex identification method using only external characteristics. Particularly, this work analyzed pigmentation patterns and levels of natural marks from adult individuals of known sex in order to identify gender differences, using frequency analysis and generalized linear models. Photographic captures of 73 free-ranging animals were utilized. The frequencies of the individual pigmentation patterns were found to be sex dependent. The 63% of the animals could be classified into either a “soft” or “sharp” pigmentation cluster. The “soft” cluster was only displayed by females, while the “sharp” cluster was present in both the sexes. However, the model selection process indicated that natural marking is the best determinative factor for sex classification. The density of the visible intraspecific natural marks was found to differ between the sexes ( P value < 0.001) and was incorporated as a predictor variable into several candidate models. All candidate models had a high predictive power (mean area under the curve 0.973) and correctly predicted the sex, by means of a density threshold value, in 85–90% of the analyzed animals. The density threshold ranged from 4.1% to 6.4% according to the different body area analyzed. These density threshold values represent a robust post hoc sexing method to classify individuals to sex from opportunistic photos in the absence of other sexing methods.

Bet-hedging as a mechanism for the evolution of polyandry, revisited

Females that mate with multiple males (polyandry) may reduce the risk that their eggs are fertilized by a single unsuitable male. About 25 years ago it was hypothesized that bet-hedging could function as a mechanism favoring the evolution of polyandry, but this idea is controversial because theory indicates that bet-hedging via polyandry can compensate the costs of mating only in small populations. Nevertheless, populations are often spatially structured, and even in the absence of spatial structure, mate-choice opportunity can be limited to a few potential partners. We examined the effectiveness of bet-hedging in such situations with simulations carried out under two scenarios: (1) intrinsic male quality, with offspring survival determined by male phenotype (male's ability to generate viable offspring), and (2) genetic incompatibility (offspring fitness determined nonadditively by parental genotypes). We find higher fixation probabilities for a polyandrous strategy compared to a monandrous strategy if complete reproductive failure due to male effects or parental incompatibility is pervasive in the population. Our results also indicate that bet-hedging polyandry can delay the extinction of small demes. Our results underscore the potential for bet-hedging to provide benefits to polyandrous females and have valuable implications for conservation biology.

Tail probabilities of extinction time in a large number of experimental populations

Determining the distribution of population extinction times is a fundamental problem in theoretical population biology. In particular, the tail properties, patterns in the probability of long-term persistence, have not been studied. Further, until now there have been no experimental or observational data sets with which to empirically test the "rare event" predictions of the standard stochastic theory of extinction, which holds that extinction times should be exponentially distributed. I performed an experimental study of extinction in a large number of replicate (n = 1076) laboratory populations of the waterflea Daphnia pulicaria. Observed extinction time ranged from 1 to 1239 days. Statistical models supported the hypothesis of a power-law distribution over the exponential distribution and other alternatives. This pattern contradicts the notion that population extinction time has an exponential tail, questioning its ubiquitous use in theoretical ecology. It is also a rare instance of a data set that exhibits power-law scaling under appropriate statistical criteria.

Adaptive value of same-sex pairing in Laysan albatross

Same-sex pairing is widespread among animals but is difficult to explain in an evolutionary context because it does not result in reproduction, and thus same-sex behaviour often is viewed as maladaptive. Here, we compare survival, fecundity and transition probabilities of female Laysan albatross in different pair types, and we show how female-female pairing could be an adaptive alternative mating strategy, albeit one that resulted in lower fitness than male-female pairing. Females in same-sex pairs produced 80% fewer chicks, had lower survival and skipped breeding more often than those in male-female pairs. Females in same-sex pairs that raised a chick sometimes acquired a male mate in the following year, but females in failed same-sex pairs never did, suggesting that males exert sexual selection by assessing female quality and relegating low-quality females into same-sex pairs. Sexual selection by males in a monomorphic, non-ornamented species is rare and suggests that reconsideration is needed of the circumstances in which alternative reproductive behaviour evolves. Given the lack of males and obligate biparental care in this species, this research demonstrates how same-sex pairing was better than not breeding and highlights how it could be an adaptive strategy under certain demographic conditions.

Demographic effects on the use of genetic options for the control of mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki

This study tests the sensitivity of genetically based pest control options based on sex ratio distortion to intra- and intersexual aggressive interactions that affect male and female survival and fitness. Data on these interactions and their impacts were gathered for the mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki (Poeciliidae), a promiscuous species with a strongly male-biased operational sex ratio and well-documented male harassment of females. The experimental design consisted of an orthogonal combination of two population densities and three sex ratios, ranging from strongly male-biased to strongly female-biased, and long-term observations of laboratory populations. Contrary to expectations, the number of males in a population had little evident effect on population demographics. Rather, the density of adult females determined population fecundity (as a result of a stock-recruitment relationship involving females, but not males), constrained male densities (apparently as a result of cannibalism or intersexual aggression), and regulated itself (most likely through effects of intrasexual aggression on female recruitment). The principal effect of males was to constrain their own densities via effects of male-male aggression on adult male mortality rates. Through use of a realistically parameterized genetic/demographic model, we show that of three different genetic options applied to control G. holbrooki, one based on recombinant sex ratio distortion (release of Female Lethal carriers) is marginally more efficient than a sterile male release program, and both outperform an option based on chromosomal sex ratio distortion (Trojan W). Nonlinear dependence of reproductive rate on female density reduces the efficacy of all three approaches. The major effect of intra- and intersexual aggression is mediated through females, whose interactions reduce female numbers and increase the efficacy of a control program based on sex ratio. Socially mediated male mortality has a small impact on control programs due to operational sex ratios that are heavily male-biased. The sensitivity of sex ratio-based control options to social factors will depend on the mating system of the targeted pest, but evidence of widespread density-dependent population regulation suggests that, for most species, the effects of elevated adult mortality (due to intra- and intersexual aggression) on control programs are likely to be slight.

A method for estimating population sex ratio for sage-grouse using noninvasive genetic samples

Population sex ratio is an important metric for wildlife management and conservation, but estimates can be difficult to obtain, particularly for sexually monomorphic species or for species that differ in detection probability between the sexes. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has become a common method for identifying sex from sources such as hair, feathers or faeces, and is a potential source for estimating sex ratio. If, however, PCR success is sex-biased, naively using NGS could lead to a biased sex ratio estimator. We measured PCR success rates and error rates for amplifying the W and Z chromosomes from greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) faecal samples, examined how success and error rates for sex identification changed in response to faecal sample exposure time, and used simulation models to evaluate precision and bias of three sex assignment criteria for estimating population sex ratio with variable sample sizes and levels of PCR replication. We found PCR success rates were higher for females than males and that choice of sex assignment criteria influenced the bias and precision of corresponding sex ratio estimates. Our simulations demonstrate the importance of considering the interplay between the sex bias of PCR success, number of genotyping replicates, sample size, true population sex ratio and accuracy of assignment rules for designing future studies. Our results suggest that using faecal DNA for estimating the sex ratio of sage-grouse populations has great potential and, with minor adaptations and similar marker evaluations, should be applicable to numerous species.

Metapopulation dynamics on the brink of extinction

We analyse metapopulation dynamics in terms of an individual-based, stochastic model of a finite metapopulation. We suggest a new approach, using the number of patches in the population as a large parameter. This approach does not require that the number of individuals per patch is large, neither is it necessary to assume a time-scale separation between local population dynamics and migration. Our approach makes it possible to accurately describe the dynamics of metapopulations consisting of many small patches. We focus on metapopulations on the brink of extinction. We estimate the time to extinction and describe the most likely path to extinction. We find that the logarithm of the time to extinction is proportional to the product of two vectors, a vector characterising the distribution of patch population sizes in the quasi-steady state, and a vector-related to Fisher's reproduction vector-that quantifies the sensitivity of the quasi-steady state distribution to demographic fluctuations. We compare our analytical results to stochastic simulations of the model, and discuss the range of validity of the analytical expressions. By identifying fast and slow degrees of freedom in the metapopulation dynamics, we show that the dynamics of large metapopulations close to extinction is approximately described by a deterministic equation originally proposed by Levins (1969). We were able to compute the rates in Levins' equation in terms of the parameters of our stochastic, individual-based model. It turns out, however, that the interpretation of the dynamical variable depends strongly on the intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity of the patches. Only when the local growth rate and the carrying capacity are large does the slow variable correspond to the number of patches, as envisaged by Levins. Last but not least, we discuss how our findings relate to other, widely used metapopulation models.

A general stochastic model for sporophytic self-incompatibility

Disentangling the processes leading populations to extinction is a major topic in ecology and conservation biology. The difficulty to find a mate in many species is one of these processes. Here, we investigate the impact of self-incompatibility in flowering plants, where several inter-compatible classes of individuals exist but individuals of the same class cannot mate. We model pollen limitation through different relationships between mate availability and fertilization success. After deriving a general stochastic model, we focus on the simple case of distylous plant species where only two classes of individuals exist. We first study the dynamics of such a species in a large population limit and then, we look for an approximation of the extinction probability in small populations. This leads us to consider inhomogeneous random walks on the positive quadrant. We compare the dynamics of distylous species to self-fertile species with and without inbreeding depression, to obtain the conditions under which self-incompatible species can be less sensitive to extinction while they can suffer more pollen limitation.

Demographic consequences of adult sex ratio in a reintroduced hihi population

1. Male-biased adult sex ratios are frequently observed in free-ranging populations and are known to cause changes in mating behaviours including increased male harassment of females, which can cause injury to females and/or alter female behaviour during breeding. 2. Although we can explain why such behaviours may evolve and have studied their impacts on individuals when it does, we know very little about the demographic consequences of harassment caused by changes in adult sex ratio. 3. Using a 12-year longitudinal data set of a free-living and endangered New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), we show that a changing adult sex ratio has little or no effect on adult female survival or the number of fledglings produced per female. This is despite clear evidence of male harassment of breeding females when the sex ratio was male biased (up to three males per female). 4. The length of the study and major fluctuations in sex ratio observed made it possible to obtain narrow confidence or credible intervals for effect sizes, showing that any effect of sex ratio on demographic rates were small. 5. Our results provide rare empirical evidence for the demographic consequences of biased adult sex ratios in the wild and particularly in a conservation context.

Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach

We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.

Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect

Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches are needed that identify the circumstances leading to an Allee effect before such a scenario occurs. We present a predictive approach of Allee effects for polar bears where low population densities, an unpredictable habitat and harvest-depleted male populations result in infrequent mating encounters. We develop a mechanistic model for the polar bear mating system that predicts the proportion of fertilized females at the end of the mating season given population density and operational sex ratio. The model is parametrized using pairing data from Lancaster Sound, Canada, and describes the observed pairing dynamics well. Female mating success is shown to be a nonlinear function of the operational sex ratio, so that a sudden and rapid reproductive collapse could occur if males are severely depleted. The operational sex ratio where an Allee effect is expected is dependent on population density. We focus on the prediction of Allee effects in polar bears but our approach is also applicable to other species.

EFFECTIVE SIZE OF FLUCTUATING POPULATIONS WITH TWO SEXES AND OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS

We derive formulas that can be applied to estimate the effective population size N(e) for organisms with two sexes reproducing once a year and having constant adult mean vital rates independent of age. Temporal fluctuations in population size are generated by demographic and environmental stochasticity. For populations with even sex ratio at birth, no deterministic population growth and identical mean vital rates for both sexes, the key parameter determining N(e) is simply the mean value of the demographic variance for males and females considered separately. In this case Crow and Kimura's generalization of Wright's formula for N(e) with two sexes, in terms of the effective population sizes for each sex, is applicable even for fluctuating populations with different stochasticity in vital rates for males and females. If the mean vital rates are different for the sexes then a simple linear combination of the demographic variances determines N(e), further extending Wright's formula. For long-lived species an expression is derived for N(e) involving the generation times for both sexes. In the general case with nonzero population growth and uneven sex ratio of newborns, we use the model to investigate numerically the effects of different population parameters on N(e). We also estimate the ratio of effective to actual population size in six populations of house sparrows on islands off the coast of northern Norway. This ratio showed large interisland variation because of demographic differences among the populations. Finally, we calculate how N(e) in a growing house sparrow population will change over time.

Patch Aging and theS‐Allee Effect: Breeding System Effects on the Demographic Response of Plants to Habitat Fragmentation

We used empirical and modeling approaches to examine effects of plant breeding systems on demographic responses to habitat fragmentation. Empirically, we investigated effects of local flowering plant density on pollination and of population size on mate availability in a common, self-incompatible purple coneflower, Echinacea angustifolia, growing in fragmented prairie habitat. Pollination and recruitment increased with weighted local density around individual flowering plants. This positive density dependence is an Allee effect. In addition, mean mate compatibility between pairs of plants increased with population size. Based on this empirical study, we developed an individual-based, spatially explicit demographic model that incorporates autosomal loci and an S locus. We simulated habitat fragmentation in populations identical except for their breeding system, self-incompatible (SI) or self-compatible (SC). Both populations suffered reduced reproduction in small patches because of scarcity of plants within pollination distance (potential mates) and inbreeding depression. But SI species experienced an additional, genetic contribution to the Allee effect (S-Allee effect) caused by allele loss at the S locus, which reduces mate availability, thereby decreasing reproduction. The strength of the S-Allee effect increases through time (i.e., patches age) because random genetic drift reduces S-allele richness. We investigate how patch aging influences extinction and discuss how the S-Allee effect influences communities in fragmented habitat.

Demographic side effects of selective hunting in ungulates and carnivores

Selective harvesting regimes are often implemented because age and sex classes contribute differently to population dynamics and hunters show preferences associated with body size and trophy value. We reviewed the literature on how such cropping regimes affect the demography of the remaining population (here termed demographic side effects). First, we examined the implications of removing a large proportion of a specific age or sex class. Such harvesting strategies often bias the population sex ratio toward females and reduce the mean age of males, which may consequently delay birth dates, reduce birth synchrony, delay body mass development, and alter offspring sex ratios. Second, we reviewed the side effects associated with the selective removal of relatively few specific individuals, often large trophy males. Such selective harvesting can destabilize social structures and the dominance hierarchy and may cause loss of social knowledge, sexually selected infanticide, habitat changes among reproductive females, and changes in offspring sex ratio. A common feature of many of the reported mechanisms is that they ultimately depress recruitment and in some extreme cases even cause total reproductive collapse. These effects could act additively and destabilize the dynamics of populations, thus having a stronger effect on population growth rate than first anticipated. Although more experimental than observational studies reported demographic side effects, we argue that this may reflect the quite subtle mechanisms involved, which are unlikely to be detected in observational studies without rigorous monitoring regimes. We call for more detailed studies of hunted populations with marked individuals that address how the expression of these effects varies across mating systems, habitats, and with population density. Theoretical models investigating how strongly these effects influence population growth rates are also required.

Census error and the detection of density dependence

1. Studies aiming to identify the prevalence and nature of density dependence in ecological populations have often used statistical analysis of ecological time-series of population counts. Such time-series are also being used increasingly to parameterize models that may be used in population management. 2. If time-series contain measurement errors, tests that rely on detecting a negative relationship between log population change and population size are biased and prone to spuriously detecting density dependence (Type I error). This is because the measurement error in density for a given year appears in the corresponding change in population density, with equal magnitude but opposite sign. 3. This effect introduces bias that may invalidate comparisons of ecological data with density-independent time-series. Unless census error can be accounted for, time-series may appear to show strongly density-dependent dynamics, even though the density-dependent signal may in reality be weak or absent. 4. We distinguish two forms of census error, both of which have serious consequences for detecting density dependence. 5. First, estimates of population density are based rarely on exact counts, but on samples. Hence there exists sampling error, with the level of error depending on the method employed and the number of replicates on which the population estimate is based. 6. Secondly, the group of organisms measured is often not a truly self-contained population, but part of a wider ecological population, defined in terms of location or behaviour. Consequently, the subpopulation studied may effectively be a sample of the population and spurious density dependence may be detected in the dynamics of a single subpopulation. In this case, density dependence is detected erroneously, even if numbers within the subpopulation are censused without sampling error. 7. In order to illustrate how process variation and measurement error may be distinguished we review data sets (counts of numbers of birds by single observers) for which both census error and long-term variance in population density can be estimated. 8. Tests for density dependence need to obviate the problem that measured population sizes are typically estimates rather than exact counts. It is possible that in some cases it may be possible to test for density dependence in the presence of unknown levels of census error, for example by uncovering nonlinearities in the density response. However, it seems likely that these may lack power compared with analyses that are able to explicitly include census error and we review some recently developed methods.

Causes and consequences of adaptive seasonal sex ratio variation in house sparrows

1. Here we examine how sex ratio variation in house sparrow broods interacts with other demographic traits and parental characteristics to improve the understanding of adaptive significance and demographic effects on variation in sex ratio. 2. The sex ratio in complete broods did not deviate significantly from parity (54.9% males). 3. There was sex-specific seasonal variation in the probability of recruitment. Male nestlings that hatched late in the breeding season had larger probability of surviving than early hatched males. 4. An adaptive adjustment of sex ratio should favour production of an excess of males late in the breeding season. Accordingly, the proportion of male offspring increased throughout the breeding season. 5. A significant nonlinear relationship was present between sex ratio and age of the female. However, there was no relationship between parental phenotype and standardized hatch day that could explain the observed seasonal change in sex ratio. 6. The sex-specific number of offspring recruited by a pair to subsequent generations was closely related to the brood sex ratio. 7. These results indicate an adaptive adjustment of sex ratio to seasonal variation in environmental conditions that affects the offspring fitness of the two sexes differently. Our results also suggest that such a sex ratio variation can strongly influence the demography and structural composition of small passerine populations.

Lonely hearts or sex in the city? Density-dependent effects in mating systems

Two very basic ideas in sexual selection are heavily influenced by numbers of potential mates: the evolution of anisogamy, leading to sex role differentiation, and the frequency dependence of reproductive success that tends to equalize primary sex ratios. However, being explicit about the numbers of potential mates is not typical to most evolutionary theory of sexual selection. Here, we argue that this may prevent us from finding the appropriate ecological equilibria that determine the evolutionary endpoints of selection. We review both theoretical and empirical advances on how population density may influence aspects of mating systems such as intrasexual competition, female choice or resistance, and parental care. Density can have strong effects on selective pressures, whether or not there is phenotypic plasticity in individual strategies with respect to density. Mating skew may either increase or decrease with density, which may be aided or counteracted by changes in female behaviour. Switchpoints between alternative mating strategies can be density dependent, and mate encounter rates may influence mate choice (including mutual mate choice), multiple mating, female resistance to male mating attempts, mate searching, mate guarding, parental care, and the probability of divorce. Considering density-dependent selection may be essential for understanding how populations can persist at all despite sexual conflict, but simple models seem to fail to predict the diversity of observed responses in nature. This highlights the importance of considering the interaction between mating systems and population dynamics, and we strongly encourage further work in this area.

Behavioural flexibility in the mating system buffers population extinction: lessons from the lesser spotted woodpecker Picoides minor

1. In most stochastic models addressing the persistence of small populations, environmental noise is included by imposing a synchronized effect of the environment on all individuals. However, buffer mechanisms are likely to exist that may counteract this synchronization to some degree. 2. We have studied whether the flexibility in the mating system, which has been observed in some bird species, is a potential mechanism counteracting the synchronization of environmental fluctuations. Our study organism is the lesser spotted woodpecker Picoides minor (Linnaeus), a generally monogamous species. However, facultative polyandry, where one female mates with two males with separate nests, was observed in years with male-biased sex ratio. 3. We constructed an individual-based model from data and observations of a population in Taunus, Germany. We tested the impact of three behavioural scenarios on population persistence: (1) strict monogamy; (2) polyandry without costs; and (3) polyandry assuming costs in terms of lower survival and reproductive success for secondary males. We assumed that polyandry occurs only in years with male-biased sex ratio and only for females with favourable breeding conditions. 4. Even low rates of polyandry had a strong positive effect on population persistence. The increase of persistence with carrying capacity was slower in the monogamous scenario, indicating strong environmental noise. In the polyandrous scenarios, the increase of persistence was stronger, indicating a buffer mechanism. In the polyandrous scenarios, populations had a higher mean population size, a lower variation in number of individuals, and recovered faster after a population breakdown. Presuming a realistic polyandry rate and costs for polyandry, there was still a strong effect of polyandry on persistence. 5. The results show that polyandry and in general flexibility in mating systems is a buffer mechanism that can significantly reduce the impact of environmental and demographic noise in small populations. Consequently, we suggest that even behaviour that seems to be exceptional should be considered explicitly when predicting the persistence of populations.

Life history and demographics of an island possum

Knowledge of life history and demography is essential for effective management of target species. Here, I describe life history and demographic traits of the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) on Magnetic Island, north Queensland. Data were collected during monthly live-trapping sessions over three years (2001–2004). Density was ~100% higher than reported in most Australian populations, at 5 possums per hectare; losses from the population were more than compensated for by births and immigration. Age-specific survival differed between the sexes: male survival declined earlier and faster than female survival. Males were significantly heavier than females as adults and sexual dimorphism appears to arise through a faster growth rate in males following weaning. Age at maturity in females varied from 1 to 3 years; 61% of females produced their first young at age 2. Males became sexually mature at age 3. Breeding was seasonal, with >50% births occurring in April–May; a smaller birth peak in spring was due to some females producing a second young after they had successfully weaned a first. The Magnetic Island possum population appears to be more similar to New Zealand populations, in terms of their life history and demographics, than to other previously studied mainland Australian populations.

Life-History Variation Predicts the Effects of Demographic Stochasticity on Avian Population Dynamics

Comparative analyses of avian population fluctuations have shown large interspecific differences in population variability that have been difficult to relate to variation in general ecological characteristics. Here we show that interspecific variation in demographic stochasticity, caused by random variation among individuals in their fitness contributions, can be predicted from a knowledge of the species' position along a "slow-fast" gradient of life-history variation, ranging from high reproductive species with short life expectancy at one end to species that often produce a single offspring but survive well at the other end of the continuum. The demographic stochasticity decreased with adult survival rate, age at maturity, and generation time or the position of the species toward the slow end of the slow-fast life-history gradient. This relationship between life-history characteristics and demographic stochasticity was related to interspecific differences in the variation among females in recruitment as well as to differences in the individual variation in survival. Because reproductive decisions in birds are often subject to strong natural selection, our results provide strong evidence for adaptive modifications of reproductive investment through life-history evolution of the influence of stochastic variation on avian population dynamics.