The role of conflict in the rapid fertility decline in Eritrea and prospects for the future

Maternal mortality in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: a 10-year multi-zonal institutional death review

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality (MM) remains a real scourge that hits hardest in the poorest regions of the world, particularly those affected by conflict. However, despite this worrying reality, few studies have been conducted about MM ratio in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The study aimed to describe the trends as well as the epidemiological profile and causes of reported institutional maternal deaths between 2013 and 2022 in Eastern DRC.

METHODS

A retrospective descriptive study was conducted between March 2023 and August 2023 in eight Health Zones (HZ), five in South Kivu Province (Mwana, Minova, Miti-Murhesa, Kamituga and Idjwi) and three in North Kivu Province (Kirotshe, Karisimbi and Kayna) in the eastern region of the DRC. Our study covers 242 health facilities: 168 health centers (HC), 16 referral health centers (RHCs),50 referral hospitals (RH) and 8 general referral hospitals (GRHs). Data from registers and medical records of maternal deaths recorded in these zones from 2013-2022 were extracted along with information on the number of deliveries and live births. Sociodemographic, clinical parameters, blood and ultrasound tests and suspected causes of death between provinces were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, we obtained 177 files on deceased women. Of these, 143 (80.8%) were retained for the present study, including 75 in the 3 HZs of North Kivu and 68 in the 5 HZs of South Kivu. From 2013 to 2022, study sites experienced two significant drops in maternal mortality ratio (MMR) (in 2015 and 2018), and a spike in 2016-2017. Nonetheless, the combined MMR (across study sites) started and ended the 10-year study period at approximately the same level (53 and 57 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013 and 2022 respectively). Overall, 62,6% of the deaths were reported from secondary hospital. Most deaths were of married women in their thirties (93.5%). Almost half (47.8%) had not completed four antenatal consultations. The main direct causes of death were, in decreasing order of frequency: post-partum haemorrhage (55.2%), uterine rupture (14.0), hypertensive disorders (8.4%), abortion (7.7%) puerperal infections (2.8%) and placental abruption (0.7%). When comparing among provinces, reported abortion-related maternal mortality (14.1% vs 0%) was more frequent in North Kivu than in South Kivu.

CONCLUSION

This study imperatively highlights the need for targeted interventions to reduce maternal mortality. By emphasizing the crucial importance of antenatal consultations, intrapartum/immediate post-partum care and quality of care, significant progress can be made in guaranteeing maternal health and reducing many avoidable deaths.

Effects of extreme climate events and child mortality on total fertility rate in Bangladesh

Floods, storms, and temperature extremes are examples of extreme weather events that have a substantial influence on a country's demographic dynamics, including migration, fertility, and mortality. Changes in population size, composition, and distribution may result from these occurrences. This study, which spans the years 1966-2018, looks at how Bangladesh's total fertility rate (TFR) is affected by extreme weather events and child mortality, including neonatal, infant, male infant, and under-five mortality. We use data from secondary publicly accessible sources, such as the World Bank and The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), and we investigate the correlations using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), complemented by bivariate and multivariable analyses. Our findings from the univariate analysis are noteworthy. Total extreme climate events (β = -0.345, 95 % CI: 0.510, -0.180), as well as individual extreme climate events, such as extreme temperatures (β = -1.176, 95 % CI: 1.88, -0.47), floods (β = -0.644, 95 % CI: 1.0729, -0.216), and storms (β = -0.351, 95 % CI: 0.63159, -0.07154), exhibited negative associations with the TFR. Additionally, factors such as contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) (β = -0.085, 95 % CI: 0.09072, -0.07954) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (β = -0.003, 95 % CI: 0.0041123, -0.0024234) were negatively correlated with the TFR. Conversely, various categories of child mortality, namely, infants (β = 0.041, 95 % CI: 0.040474, 0.042748), males (β = 0.038, 95 % CI:0.037719, 0.039891), and under-five (β = 0.026, 95 % CI:0.025684, 0.026979) - are positively associated with TFR. Controlling for two pivotal confounding factors, time and GNI per capita, yielded consistent results in the multivariate analysis. These findings provide insight on the dual impact of extreme weather events, which can reduce TFR while also raising it through infant mortality. This phenomena may be due to the increased vulnerability of younger children in climate-event-prone areas, prompting parents to seek additional children as both a replacement for lost offspring and an insurance mechanism against future child loss.

From the Ground Up: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Past Fertility and Population Narratives

Population dynamics form a crucial component of human narratives in the past. Population responses and adaptations not only tell us about the human past but also offer insights into the present and future. Though an area of substantial interest, it is also one of often limited evidence. As such, traditional techniques from demography and anthropology must be adapted considerably to accommodate the available archaeological and ethnohistoric data and an appropriate inferential framework must be applied. In this article, I propose a ground-up, multidisciplinary approach to the study of past population dynamics. Specifically, I develop an empirically informed path diagram based on modern fertility interactions and sources of past environmental, sociocultural, and biological evidence to guide high-resolution case studies. The proposed approach is dynamic and can evolve in response to data inputs as case studies are undertaken. In application, this approach will create new knowledge of past population processes which can greatly enhance our presently limited knowledge of high-frequency, small-scale demographic fluctuations, as well as contribute to our broader understanding of significant population disturbances and change throughout human history.

Incidence of child marriage among refugees and internally displaced persons in the Middle East and South Asia: evidence from six cross-sectional surveys

OBJECTIVE

To examine incidence of child marriage among displaced and host populations in humanitarian settings.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional surveys.

SETTING

Data were collected in Djibouti, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq in the Middle East and in Bangladesh and Nepal in South Asia.

PARTICIPANTS

Adolescent girls aged 10-19 in the six settings and age cohort comparators.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative incidence of marriage by age 18.

RESULTS

In Bangladesh and Iraq, the hazard of child marriage did not differ between internally displaced populations (IDPs) and hosts (p value=0.25 and 0.081, respectively). In Yemen, IDPs had a higher hazard of child marriage compared with hosts (p value<0.001). In Djibouti, refugees had a lower hazard of child marriage compared with hosts (p value<0.001). In pooled data, the average hazard of child marriage was significantly higher among displaced compared with host populations (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.3; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.61).In age cohort comparisons, there was no significant difference between child marriage hazard across age cohorts in Bangladesh (p value=0.446), while in Lebanon and Nepal, younger cohorts were less likely to transition to child marriage compared with older comparators (p value<0.001). Only in Yemen were younger cohorts more likely to transition to child marriage, indicating an increase in child marriage rates after conflict (p value=0.034). Pooled data showed a downward trend, where younger age cohorts had, on average, a lower hazard of child marriage compared with older cohorts (aHR 0.36; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.4).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find conclusive evidence that humanitarian crises are associated with universal increases in child marriage rates. Our findings indicate that decision-making about investments in child marriage prevention and response must be attuned to the local context and grounded in data on past and current trends in child marriage among communities impacted by crisis.

Contraceptive choice as risk reduction? The relevance of local violence for women's uptake of sterilization in Colombia

Altered childbearing behaviour has been observed in many settings of violent conflict, but few studies have addressed fertility control. This is the first study to investigate empirically the relationship between local conflict and uptake of sterilization, the only contraceptive method that reflects a definitive stop to childbearing. The study is based on Colombia, a middle-income, low-fertility, and long-term conflict setting. It builds on a mixed methods approach, combining survey and conflict data with expert interviews. Fixed effects regressions show that local conflict is generally associated with an increased sterilization uptake. The interviews suggest that women may opt for sterilization when reversible methods become less accessible because of ongoing violence. Since sterilization is a relatively available contraceptive option in Colombia, it may represent a risk-aversion strategy for women who have completed their fertility goals. These findings can enlighten research and programmes on fertility and family planning in humanitarian contexts.

Demography: Fast and Slow

Scientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a "slow demography" paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self-contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country-level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the "fast and slow" demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.

The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage

Although a great deal of attention is paid to reproductive health during violent conflicts, the literature is sparse on the consequences of conflict for abortion and miscarriage. This research provides an analysis of a recent historical case: the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, using the female questionnaire of the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey to examine a subsample of 1,445 women surveyed who had reached menarche during or after the war and had been pregnant at least once by the time of the survey. The analysis leverages the uneven geographical scope of conflict events during the civil war to pinpoint women's exposure to violence, measured by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The results show that for women who had reached menarche during or after the civil war, exposure to conflict events increases the likelihood of ever experiencing miscarriage, but not abortion. Including a spatial lag operator reveals that there were also spillover effects for abortion, in which women who were in a broader region of uncertainty were more likely to induce an abortion. These findings highlight the role of institutional changes in affecting pregnancy loss during and after civil war.

Child marriage among Somali refugees in Ethiopia: a cross sectional survey of adolescent girls and adult women

BACKGROUND

Despite child marriage receiving increased attention over the past two decades, research on child marriage in humanitarian settings remains scarce. This study sought to quantify child marriage among Somali adolescent girls residing in Kobe refugee camp in Ethiopia and to identify its correlates and consequences.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted using multi-stage cluster-based sampling with probability proportional to size. We randomly sampled households that have at least one female aged 15-49 and at least one adolescent female aged 10-19. In addition to calculating the proportion of girls married under age 18, we used survival methods - namely Kaplan Meier graphs and Cox proportional hazard models - to identify risk factors associated with child marriage in this context. We also used descriptive statistics to describe marital age preferences among female adults and presented measures of important sexual and reproductive health indicators among married adolescent girls.

RESULTS

A total of 603 adult women were surveyed and a household roster was created with information on 3319 household members, of whom 522 were adolescent girls aged 15-19. Of those, 14% were currently married (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.11-0.18), and 11% were ever married under age 18 (95% CI 8-15%). Several variables were found to be significantly associated with hazard of child marriage including schooling, sex and employment status of head of household, as well as number of girls under age 18 in the childhood home.. Adult women tended to incorrectly identify minimum legal age at marriage and preferred low marital age for boys and girls - particularly in households of child brides. Among married adolescent girls, contraceptive use was very low (11%; 95% CI 4.94-22.40), and early childbearing was common (60%; 95% CI 45.56-72.89).

CONCLUSIONS

This research contributes to the evidence base on child marriage in humanitarian settings. Insights generated from this study have the potential to inform programs and interventions aiming to prevent and mitigate the impacts of this harmful practice.

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children

Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women's and children's mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood

Background

The population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.

Methods

We tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15–49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.

Findings

We analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97–128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3–8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187–218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.

Interpretation

African women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Death Is Not the End: A Register-Based Study of the Effect of Parental Death on Adult Children's Childbearing Behavior in Sweden

Macro-level studies have shown that rapid increases in mortality can affect fertility rates. Parental death has also been linked to negative psychological and physical outcomes, reduced relationship quality, and making bereaved children attach more importance to their families. No prior study has examined whether parental death influences adult children's fertility at the microlevel. This study applies event history techniques to Swedish multigeneration registers listing 1.5 million individuals with micro data on mortality and fertility to investigate short-term (first birth risk) and long-term (childlessness at age 45) effects of parental death on adult children's fertility. The principal finding is that parental death during reproductive age affects children's fertility and this effect is mainly short term. The effects differ to some degree between men and women and depend on the stage of the life course in which the bereavement occurs. Younger individuals experiencing a parental death have a significantly higher first birth risk after the parental death compared with peers who did not experience a parental death. Individuals older than 23 who experience a parental death have no or lower first birth risk after the parental death compared with baseline. Men, compared with women, are more likely to end childless if they experience a parental death.

Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

This investigation evaluates the effect of Hurricane Mitch on women's reproductive outcomes throughout Nicaragua. This research aim is achieved by analyzing a unique Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Study panel dataset that tracks women's fertility immediately before and at two time points after Hurricane Mitch, combined with satellite-derived municipality-level precipitation data for the 10-day storm period. Results show higher odds of post-disaster fertility in municipalities receiving higher precipitation levels in the immediate post-Hurricane Mitch period. However, fertility normalizes between disaster and non-disaster areas four to six years after the storm. These findings suggest that the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Mitch can have an initial stimulative effect on fertility but the effect is ephemeral.

The impact of armed conflict on adolescent transitions: a systematic review of quantitative research on age of sexual debut, first marriage and first birth in young women under the age of 20 years

Background

Young women in conflict-affected regions are at risk of a number of adverse outcomes as a result of violence, economic deterioration and the breakdown of community structures and services. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of quantitative literature reporting how key sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes among young women under the age of 20 years are affected by exposure to armed conflict; namely, sexual debut, first marriage and first birth. Increases in these outcomes among young women are all associated with potential negative public health consequences. It also examines and documents possible causal pathways for any changes seen.

Methods

To fit with our inclusion criteria, all reviewed studies included outcomes for comparable populations not exposed to conflict either temporally or spatially. A total of 19 studies with results from 21 countries or territories met our inclusion criteria; seven presented findings on marriage, four on fertility and eight on both of these outcomes. Only one study reporting on sexual debut met our criteria.

Results

Findings show clear evidence of both declines and increases in marriage and childbirth among young women in a range of conflict-affected settings. Several studies that showed increases in marriage below the age of 20 years reported that such increases were concentrated in the younger teenagers. Trends in fertility were predominantly driven by marriage patterns. Suggested causal pathways for the changes observed could be grouped into three categories: involuntary, gender and psycho-social and economic and material factors.

Conclusion

The review reveals a paucity of literature on the impact of conflict on SRH outcomes of young women. Further quantitative and qualitative studies are needed to explore how conflict influences SRH events in young women over both the short- and longer-term.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2868-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating Post-Emergency Fertility Among Disaster-Affected Adolescents: Findings From a Case-Control Study in Aceh Province, Indonesia

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to retrospectively estimate adolescent fertility rates before and after a large-scale natural disaster.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted in Aceh Province, Indonesia, 2 years after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. The age-specific fertility rates of 15-19-year-old-women (ASFR 15-19) was estimated each year from 2004 to 2006 by creating hypothetical age cohorts. The results were compared with data from the closest edition of the Indonesian Demographic Health Survey (IDHS).

RESULTS

The pre-disaster ASFR 15-19 (4.4% in 2004) was not significantly different from the 2002-2003 IDHS data (P=0.49), whereas the post-disaster ASFR 15-19 (1.1% in 2005-2006) was significantly lower than the provincial estimation in the 2007 IDHS (P<0.01). ASFR 15-19 was reduced by 76% in the post-disaster period compared with the pre-disaster period (rate ratio: 0.24, P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The creation of hypothetical age cohorts enabled valid and useful estimation of the ASFR in disaster-affected areas where reliable vital statistics are not available. For pre-disaster fertility estimation, however, we suggest excluding data from the 40-week period preceding the disaster, because the data may be biased by excess mortality in childbearing mothers and newborn babies in the disaster.

Immigrant–native fertility differentials: The Afghans in Iran

International migration is increasingly important in shaping national population dynamics, both directly through adding or subtracting people, and indirectly, through the fertility of immigrants. International migrants rarely share the fertility characteristics of either origin or destination populations. However, the relationship between migration and fertility is little understood, especially that relating to refugee populations. This study examined the fertility differentials of one of the world’s largest refugee populations, the Afghans in Iran, in relation to the host population. Based on multivariate analysis, the study demonstrated that Afghan immigrants were moving from a high fertility regime to a low fertility regime. The findings suggest that fertility change among Afghans is associated with their adaptation to Iranian society. The role of education in mediating immigrant–native fertility differentials was also uncovered.

The effects of mortality on fertility: population dynamics after a natural disaster

Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which was driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 % of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship.

The Effect on Fertility of the 2003-2011 War in Iraq

This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003-2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I-MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less-educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.

Availability of long-acting and permanent family-planning methods leads to increase in use in conflict-affected northern Uganda: evidence from cross-sectional baseline and endline cluster surveys

Humanitarian assistance standards require specific attention to address the reproductive health (RH) needs of conflict-affected populations. Despite these internationally recognised standards, access to RH services is still often compromised in war. We assessed the effectiveness of our programme in northern Uganda to provide family planning (FP) services through mobile outreach and public health centre strengthening. Baseline (n=905) and endline (n=873) cross-sectional surveys using a multistage cluster sampling design were conducted in the catchment areas of four public health centres in 2007 and 2010. Current use of any modern FP method increased from 7.1% to 22.6% (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27-4.92]); current use of long-acting and permanent methods increased from 1.2% to 9.8% (adjusted OR 9.45 [95%CI 3.99-22.39]). The proportion of women with unmet need for FP decreased from 52.1% to 35.7%. This study demonstrates that when comprehensive FP services are provided among conflict-affected populations, women will choose to use them. The combination of mobile teams and health systems strengthening can make a full range of methods quickly available while supporting the health system to continue to provide those services in challenging and resource-constrained settings.

Determinants of low family planning use and high unmet need in Butajira District, South Central Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The rapid population growth does not match with available resource in Ethiopia. Though household level family planning delivery has been put in place, the impact of such programs in densely populated rural areas was not studied. The study aims at measuring contraception and unmet need and identifying its determinants among married women.

METHODS

A total of 5746 married women are interviewed from October to December 2009 in the Butajira Demographic Surveillance Area. Contraceptive prevalence rate and unmet need with their 95% confidence interval is measured among married women in the Butajira district. The association of background characteristics and family planning use is ascertained using crude and adjusted Odds ratio in logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Current contraceptive prevalence rate among married women is 25.4% (95% CI: 24.2, 26.5). Unmet need of contraception is 52.4% of which 74.8% was attributed to spacing and the rest for limiting. Reasons for the high unmet need include commodities' insecurity, religion, and complaints related to providers, methods, diet and work load. Contraception is 2.3 (95% CI: 1.7, 3.2) times higher in urbanites compared to rural highlanders. Married women who attained primary and secondary plus level of education have about 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 2 (95% CI: 1.4, 2.9) times more risk to contraception; those with no child death are 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.5) times more likely to use contraceptives compared to counterparts. Besides, the odds of contraception is 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 1.5 (1.1, 2.0) times more likely among women whose partners completed primary and secondary plus level of education. Women discussing about contraception with partners were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.7) times more likely to use family planning. Nevertheless, contraception was about 2.6 (95% CI: 2.1, 3.2) more likely among married women whose partners supported the use of family planning.

CONCLUSIONS

The local government should focus on increasing educational level. It must also ensure family planning methods security, increase competence of providers, and create awareness on various methods and their side effects to empower women to make an appropriate choice. Emphasis should be given to rural communities.

The quality of the maternal health system in Eritrea

OBJECTIVE

To examine the quality of the maternal health system in Eritrea to understand system deficiencies and its relevance to maternal mortality within the context of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5.

METHODS

A sample of 118 health facilities was surveyed. Data were collected on 5 dimensions of health system quality: availability; accessibility; management; infrastructure; and process indicators. Data on the causes of hospital admissions for obstetric patients and maternal deaths were extracted from medical records.

RESULTS

Eritrea has only 11 comprehensive emergency obstetric care (CEmOC) facilities, all of which are grossly understaffed. There is considerable pressure on the infrastructure and health providers at hospitals. Compliance with clinical care standards and availability of supplies were optimal. As a result, the case fatality rate of 0.65% was low. In total, 45.6% of obstetric admissions and 19.5% of maternal deaths were attributed to abortion complications.

CONCLUSION

In Eritrea, critical gaps in the health system-especially those related to human resources-will impede progress toward MDG 5, and it will not be possible to reduce maternal mortality without addressing the high burden of abortion.

Fertility transitions in developing countries: progress or stagnation?

Over the past quarter-century,fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until replacement level is reached. Recent evidence suggests, however, that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple Demographic and Health Surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility was lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s and that more than half the countries in transition in this region have stalled.

The Phoenix population: demographic crisis and rebound in Cambodia

The study of mortality crises provides an unusual and valuable perspective on the relationship between mortality and fertility changes, a relationship that has puzzled demographers for decades. In this article, we combine nationally representative survey and demographic-surveillance system data to study fertility trends around the time of the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime, under which 25% of the Cambodian population died. We present the first quantitative evidence to date that attests to a one-third decline of fertility during this regime, followed by a substantial "baby boom" after the fall of the KR. Further analyses reveal that the fertility rebound was produced not only by a two-year marriage bubble but also by a surge in marital fertility that remained for nearly a decade above its precrisis level. Our results illustrate the potential influence of mortality on fertility, which may be more difficult to identify for more gradual mortality declines. To the extent that until recently, Cambodian fertility appears to fit natural fertility patterns, our findings also reinforce recent qualifications about the meaning of this core paradigm of demographic analysis.