Mexico's methamphetamine precursor chemical interventions: impacts on drug treatment admissions

The impact of precursor regulations on illicit drug markets: An analysis of Cunningham et al.'s studies

This review examines a series of twelve studies led by James K. Cunningham and his team, focusing on the effects of precursor regulation on illicit drug markets. Their research shows that the regulation of chemicals essential for the production of drugs such as heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine is associated with several positive outcomes. These include a decrease in drug purity, a reduction in seizures, lower demand for treatment and hospitalization, and an increase in drug prices. According to the research, this decrease in harmful outcomes results from a combination of diminished overall consumption and a reduction in harm per dose. However, this review identifies some inconsistencies within their studies. These inconsistencies include premature assumptions about the timing of intervention impacts, uneven influences of similar interventions, variations in the implementation of these interventions, and the disregard of alternate explanations for sudden shifts in drug markets. Cunningham's work can be considered one of the most substantial contributions in this field. However, to secure the full confidence of the drug policy community in the authenticity of their findings, they must effectively address the issues identified in this review.

Methamphetamine exposures reported to United States poison control centers, 2000-2019

OBJECTIVE

To investigate characteristics and trends of methamphetamine exposures reported to United States (US) poison control centers.

METHODS

Data from the National Poison Data System were analyzed.

RESULTS

From January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2019, US poison control centers managed 54,199 cases involving methamphetamine as the first-ranked substance. Adults 20-39 years old accounted for more than half (56.3%) of cases. There were 1,291 deaths, of which 43.0% involved multiple-substance exposures. Among multiple-substance exposures in which methamphetamine was the first-ranked substance, stimulants and street drugs (excluding methamphetamine) were most commonly also present (22.7%), followed by opioids (19.0%). The substance class associated with the most fatalities was opioids (n = 243, 26.6%). The rate of methamphetamine exposures per 100,000 US population increased from 0.6 to 1.1 from 2000-2005, then decreased from 1.1 to 0.4 from 2005-2007, followed by an increase from 0.4 to 2.6 from 2007-2019. From 2007-2019, the rate significantly increased in all US regions, and among all age groups, except among 6-12-year-olds. Also, the rates of single-substance and multiple-substance exposures each increased significantly (both p < 0.0001) from 2007-2019, as did the overall methamphetamine fatality rate per 100,000 US population (0.0036 to 0.022, p < 0.0001). From 2000-2019, the proportions of cases resulting in admission to a health care facility and serious medical outcome increased from 30.2% to 47.8% (p < 0.0001) and from 37.6% to 54.0% (p < 0.0001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of exposure to methamphetamine in the US declined initially following passage of the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act of 2005. However, since 2007, the rate and severity of exposures to methamphetamine have increased, primarily driven by individuals 20 years or older. Increased prevention efforts are needed, including prevention of methamphetamine initiation among adolescents and young adults, improved access to effective treatment for co-occurring mental health and substance use disorders, and prevention of unintentional exposures among children.

A review of the newly identified impurity profiles in methamphetamine seizures

Forensic intelligence of synthetic illicit drugs suffers a problem of continuous introduction of new synthetic methods, modification of the existing routes of manufacture, and adulterations practiced by criminal networks. Impurity profiling has been indispensable in methamphetamine intelligence based on precursors, synthetic routes, and chemical modifications during trafficking. Law enforcement authorities maintain the credibility and integrity of intelligence information through constant monitoring of the chemical signatures in the illicit drug market.

Changes in the synthetic pattern result in new impurity profiles that are important in keeping valuable intelligence information on clandestine laboratories, new synthetic routes, trafficking patterns, and geographical sources of illicit Methamphetamine.

This review presents a critical analysis of the methamphetamine impurity profiles and more specifically, profiling based on impurity profiles from Leuckart, Reductive amination, Moscow, Emde, Nagai, Birch, Moscow route; a recent nitrostyrene route and stable isotope signatures. It also highlights the discrimination of ephedrine from pseudoephedrine sources and the emerging methamphetamine profiling based on stable isotopes.

Essential/precursor chemicals and drug consumption: impacts of US sodium permanganate and Mexico pseudoephedrine controls on the numbers of US cocaine and methamphetamine users

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In December 2006 the United States regulated sodium permanganate, a cocaine essential chemical. In March 2007 Mexico, the United States' primary source for methamphetamine, closed a chemical company accused of illicitly importing 60+ tons of pseudoephedrine, a methamphetamine precursor chemical. US cocaine availability and methamphetamine availability, respectively, decreased in association. This study tested whether the controls had impacts upon the numbers of US cocaine users and methamphetamine users.

DESIGN

Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention time-series analysis. Comparison series-heroin and marijuana users-were used.

SETTING

United States, 2002-14.

PARTICIPANTS

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n = 723 283), a complex sample survey of the US civilian, non-institutionalized population.

MEASUREMENTS

Estimates of the numbers of (1) past-year users and (2) past-month users were constructed for each calendar quarter from 2002 to 2014, providing each series with 52 time-periods.

FINDINGS

Downward shifts in cocaine users started at the time of the cocaine regulation. Past-year and past-month cocaine users series levels decreased by approximately 1 946 271 (-32%) (P < 0.05) and 694 770 (-29%) (P < 0.01), respectively-no apparent recovery occurred through 2014. Downward shifts in methamphetamine users started at the time of the chemical company closure. Past-year and past-month methamphetamine series levels decreased by 494 440 (-35%) [P < 0.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -771 897, -216 982] and 277 380 (-45%) (P < 0.05; CI = -554 073, -686), respectively-partial recovery possibly occurred in 2013. The comparison series changed little at the intervention times.

CONCLUSIONS

Essential/precursor chemical controls in the United States (2006) and Mexico (2007) were associated with large, extended (7+ years) reductions in cocaine users and methamphetamine users in the United States.

US federal cocaine essential ('precursor') chemical regulation impacts on US cocaine availability: an intervention time-series analysis with temporal replication

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Research shows that essential/precursor chemical controls have had substantial impacts on US methamphetamine and heroin availability. This study examines whether US federal essential chemical regulations have impacted US cocaine seizure amount, price and purity-indicators of cocaine availability.

DESIGN

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-intervention time-series analysis was used to assess the impacts of four US regulations targeting cocaine manufacturing chemicals: potassium permanganate/selected solvents, implemented October 1989 sulfuric acid/hydrochloric acid, implemented October 1992; methyl isobutyl ketone, implemented May 1995; and sodium permanganate, implemented December 2006. Of these chemicals, potassium permanganate and sodium permanganate are the most critical to cocaine production.

SETTING

Conterminous United States (January 1987-April 2011).

MEASUREMENTS

Monthly time-series: purity-adjusted cocaine seizure amount (in gross weight seizures < 6000 grams), purity-adjusted price (all available seizures), and purity (all available seizures).

DATA SOURCE

System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence.

FINDINGS

The 1989 potassium permanganate/solvents regulation was associated with a seizure amount decrease (change in series level) of 28% (P < 0.05), a 36% increase in price (P < 0.05) and a 4% decrease in purity (P < 0.05). Availability recovered in 1-2 years. The 2006 potassium permanganate regulation was associated with a 22% seizure amount decrease (P < 0.05), 100% price increase (P < 0.05) and 35% purity decrease (P < 0.05). Following the 2006 regulation, essentially no recovery occurred to April 2011. The other two chemical regulations were associated with statistically significant but lesser declines in indicated availability.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, essential chemical controls from 1989 to 2006 were associated with pronounced downturns in cocaine availability.

The impact of the prohibition of benzylpiperazine (BZP) "legal highs" on the availability, price and strength of BZP in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Legal highs containing benzylpiperazine (BZP) were widely sold in New Zealand until BZP was prohibited in 2008. We examined the impact the prohibition had on the availability and price of BZP over following years.

METHODS

Two national population surveys of BZP use were conducted in 2006 and 2009. Four annual targeted surveys of frequent drug users (FDU) were conducted from 2007-2010. Availability and price measures were obtained. Inflation-adjusted real retail prices were calculated. Other drug markets were monitored as quasi-controls.

RESULTS

The proportion of BZP users from the general population who considered the availability of BZP to be 'very easy' declined from 76% in 2006 to 21% in 2009. The proportion who thought BZP had become 'harder' to obtain increased from 5% in 2006 to 71% in 2009. The proportion who reported the price of BZP was 'higher' increased from 27% in 2006 to 51% in 2009. FDU who considered the availability of BZP to be 'very easy' declined from 98% in 2007 to 15% in 2008, and then increased to 42% by 2010. The real retail price of a BZP tablet increased from $9.86 in 2007 to $15.83 in 2010. The proportion who considered the price of BZP to be 'increasing' rose from 3% in 2007 to 47% in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

The availability of BZP declined immediately following its prohibition. Availability recovered in subsequent years, but not to the pre-prohibition legal level. The price of BZP increased slowly over a number of years following the prohibition.

Essential ("precursor") chemical control for heroin: impact of acetic anhydride regulation on US heroin availability

BACKGROUND

To reduce heroin availability, the United Nations (UN) has encouraged nations to control acetic anhydride, an essential ("precursor") chemical typically necessary to the drug's production. This effort, a major environmental prevention policy, has received little evaluation. The United States, per the UN's lead, implemented acetic anhydride regulation in 11/1989. The present study examines whether the US regulation impacted US heroin availability.

METHODS

Monthly series of three heroin availability indicators-heroin purity, heroin price, and amount of heroin seized-were constructed for the conterminous United States, the US Southwest (supplied predominantly with Mexican-produced heroin), and the US Northeast (supplied predominantly, at the time, with Southeast Asian-produced heroin). Data came from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (01/1987-04/2011). Impacts were assessed using ARIMA-intervention time series analysis.

RESULTS

In each US area, heroin purity and amount seized rose and price decreased throughout the pre-intervention period. All of the indicators then reversed course at the time of the regulation. In the conterminous United States, the US Northeast, and the US Southwest, purity decreased (-40%, -25% and -50%, respectively); amount seized decreased (-27%, -37% and -39%, respectively); and price rose (+93%, +102% and +296%, respectively). Impacts lasted 2-5 years.

CONCLUSION

US heroin availability decreased in association with the US acetic anhydride regulation. The impacts in the US Southwest and US Northeast suggest that heroin production in Mexico and Southeast Asia, respectively, was constrained. This study lends support to the contention that essential ("precursor") chemical control can be used to help address heroin.

Mexico's precursor chemical controls: emergence of less potent types of methamphetamine in the United States

BACKGROUND

This study examines whether Mexico's controls on ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, the two precursor chemicals that yield the most potent form of methamphetamine, d-methamphetamine, impacted the prevalence/availability of less potent types of methamphetamine in the United States-types associated with the alternative precursor chemical P2P.

METHOD

Using ARIMA-intervention time series analysis of monthly drug exhibits (a prevalence/availability indicator) from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE), we tested whether Mexico's controls, which began in 2005, were associated with growth/decline in d-methamphetamine and growth/decline in P2P-associated, less potent l-methamphetamine, racemic methamphetamine (a 50:50 ratio of d- and l-isomers), and mixed isomer methamphetamine (an unequal ratio of d- and l-isomers). Heroin, cocaine and marijuana exhibits were used for quasi-control (01/2000-04/2011).

RESULTS

Mixed-isomer exhibits constituted about 4% of the methamphetamine exhibits before Mexico's controls, then rose sharply in association with them and remained elevated, constituting about 37% of methamphetamine exhibits in 2010. d-Methamphetamine exhibits dropped sharply; l-methamphetamine and racemic methamphetamine exhibits had small rises. d-Methamphetamine exhibits partially recovered in the US West, but little recovery occurred in the US Central/South. Quasi-control series were generally unaffected.

CONCLUSION

The US methamphetamine market changed. Widespread emergence of less potent methamphetamine occurred in conjunction with Mexico's controls. And prevalence/availability of the most potent type of the drug, d-methamphetamine, declined, a partial recovery in the West notwithstanding. Granting that lower potency drugs typically engender less dependence and attendant problems, these findings suggest that, following Mexico's controls, the potential harm of a sizeable amount of the US methamphetamine supply decreased.

Changing over-the-counter ephedrine and pseudoephedrine products to prescription only: impacts on methamphetamine clandestine laboratory seizures

BACKGROUND

Clandestine laboratory operators commonly extract ephedrine and pseudoephedrine-precursor chemicals used to synthesize methamphetamine-from over-the-counter cold/allergy/sinus products. To prevent this activity, two states, Oregon in 07/2006 and Mississippi in 07/2010, implemented regulations classifying ephedrine and pseudoephedrine as Schedule III substances, making products containing them available by prescription only. Using simple pre-regulation versus post-regulation comparisons, reports claim that the regulations have substantially reduced clandestine laboratory seizures (an indicator of laboratory prevalence) in both states, motivating efforts to implement similar regulation nationally. This study uses ARIMA-intervention time-series analysis to more rigorously evaluate the regulations' impacts on laboratory seizures.

METHODS

Monthly counts of methamphetamine clandestine laboratory seizures were extracted from the Clandestine Laboratory Seizure System (2000-early 2011) for Oregon, Mississippi and selected nearby states (for quasi-control).

FINDINGS

Seizures in Oregon and nearby western states largely bottomed out months before Oregon's regulation, and changed little thereafter. No significant impact for Oregon's regulation was found. Mississippi and nearby states generally had elevated seizures before Mississippi's regulation. Mississippi experienced a regulation-associated drop of 28.9 seizures (50.2%) in the series level (p<0.01), while nearby states exhibited no comparable decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Oregon's regulation encountered a floor effect, making any sizable impact infeasible. Mississippi, however, realized a substantial impact, suggesting that laboratories, if sufficiently extant, can be meaningfully impacted by prescription precursor regulation. It follows that national prescription precursor regulation would have little impact in western states with low indicated laboratory prevalence, but may be of significant use in regions facing higher indicated prevalence.

Methamphetamine: here we go again?

Following more than two decades of generally increasing trends in the use and abuse of methamphetamine in certain parts of the country, prevalence indicators for the drug began to decrease in the mid-2000's-but was this decrease signaling the end of the "meth problem"? This paper has compiled historical and recent data from supply and demand indicators to provide a broader context within which to consider the changes in trends over the past half decade. Data suggest supply-side accommodation to changes in precursor chemical restrictions, with prevalence indicators beginning to attenuate in the mid-2000's and then increasing again by 2009-2010. Results support the need for continuing attention to control and interdiction efforts appropriate to the changing supply context and to continuing prevention efforts and increased number of treatment programs.

Trends in primary methamphetamine-related admissions to youth residential substance abuse treatment facilities in Canada, 2005-2006 and 2009-2010

OBJECTIVE

During the last decade, methamphetamine use and issues surrounding its toxicity have triggered major concern in the Canadian government, leading to significant changes in drug policy and funding strategies to limit the societal impact of methamphetamine-related harms. This concern appears justified by research which found in 2005-2006 that 21% of all youth admissions to inpatient substance abuse treatment centres in Canada were due primarily to methamphetamine abuse. Given these patterns of treatment use and targeted governmental initiatives, an open question is whether the demand for methamphetamine treatment found in 2005-2006 has decreased. Our study aims to provide follow-up estimates of admissions for 2009-2010, as well as important trend information for these periods.

METHOD

We developed a comprehensive list of all Canadian residential youth substance abuse treatment facilities. The executive director of each facility was asked about the site's annual caseload, and the proportion of cases primarily due to methamphetamine abuse within the past 12 months.

RESULTS

Our survey data for the periods of 2005-2006 and 2009-2010 show marked reductions in admissions. In 2009-2010, we found that about 6% of all admissions were due primarily to methamphetamine abuse, a substantial drop from the 21% reported in our 2005-2006 study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show a significant national reduction in methamphetamine-related admissions. Other reports show that methamphetamine-related treatment admissions in the United States and Mexico declined sharply during 2005-2008, reportedly in association with Mexico's methamphetamine precursor chemical controls, raising the possibility that the controls may also be associated with the declines reported here.

A systematic review of methamphetamine precursor regulations

AIMS

To assess the effectiveness of methamphetamine precursor regulations in reducing illicit methamphetamine supply and use.

METHODS

A systematic review of 12 databases was used to identify studies that had evaluated the impact of methamphetamine precursor regulations on methamphetamine supply and/or use. The guidelines of the Effective Practice and Organization of Care Group (EPOC) of The Cochrane Collaboration were used to determine which study designs were included and assess their quality.

RESULTS

Ten studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies evaluated 15 interventions (13 regulations and two related interdiction efforts), all of which were located in North America. Interventions had consistent impacts across various indicators of methamphetamine supply and use. Seven of the 15 interventions produced reductions in methamphetamine indicators (ranging from 12% to 77%). Two of the largest impacts were seen following interdiction efforts, involving the closure of rogue pharmaceutical companies. There was no evidence of a shift into other types of drug use, or injecting use, although the impact on the synthetic drug market was not examined. Null effects were related largely to the existence of alternative sources of precursor chemicals or the availability of imported methamphetamine.

CONCLUSIONS

Methamphetamine precursor regulations can reduce indicators of methamphetamine supply and use. Further research is needed to determine whether regulations can be effective outside North America, particularly in developing countries, and what impact they have on the broader synthetic drug market. Improved data on precursor diversion are needed to facilitate the evaluation of precursor regulations.

Interpreting methamphetamine levels in a high-use community

INTRODUCTION

Illicit drug use is a largely hidden phenomenon, and population measures are notoriously problematic. Reliable and valid data for local, regional, and national public health and other interventions are needed.

METHODS

To address this information, we examined temporal trends within and across weeks in methamphetamine (MA) in a single location in order to inform a sampling plan for understanding long-term trends in MA use based on sampling raw influent to wastewater treatment plants. The measured concentrations in the wastewater are used to estimate the total mass of MA consumed rather than the number of doses due to the uncertainty surrounding methamphetamine purity, mass of MA per dose, and the number of doses used per day.

RESULTS

Results from a region with high levels of MA use indicate that MA levels do not differ significantly between weekdays and weekends (p = 0.1), consistent with a predominately regular, daily use pattern use. The potential contribution of legal sales of D: - and L: -MA to the mass of MA consumed within the community was estimated to range from 3-8%. Limitations and uncertainties associated with estimating the mass of MA consumption include small contributions of prescription and over-the-counter drugs that are metabolized to MA as well as measurement and sampling variability.