Recruitment to a seabird population depends on environmental factors and on population size

Opposing effects of spatiotemporal variation in resources and temporal variation in climate on density dependent population growth in seabirds

Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation-temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions.

Ecological information and approaches needed for risk communication dialogs for acute or chronic environmental crises

Scientists, social scientists, risk communicators, and many others are often thrust into a crisis situation where they need to interact with a range of stakeholders, including governmental personnel (tribal, U.S. federal, state, local), local residents, and other publics, as well as other scientists and other risk communicators in situations where information is incomplete and evolving. This paper provides: (1) an overall framework for thinking about communication during crises, from acute to chronic, and local to widespread, (2) a template for the types of ecological information needed to address public and environmental concerns, and (3) examples to illustrate how this information will aid risk communicators. The main goal is providing an approach to the knowledge needed by communicators to address the challenges of protecting ecological resources during an environmental crisis, or for an on-going, chronic environmental issue. To understand the risk to these ecological resources, it is important to identify the type of event, whether it is acute or chronic (or some combination of these), what receptors are at risk, and what stressors are involved (natural, biological, chemical, radiological). For ecological resources, the key information a communicator needs for a crisis is whether any of the following are present: threatened or endangered species, species of special concern, species groups of concern (e.g., neotropical bird migrants, breeding frogs in vernal ponds, rare plant assemblages), unique or rare habitats, species of commercial and recreational interest, and species/habitats of especial interest for medicinal, cultural, or religious activities. Communication among stakeholders is complicated with respect to risk to ecological receptors because of differences in trust, credibility, empathy, perceptions, world view valuation of the resources, and in many cases, a history of misinformation, disinformation, or no information. Exposure of salmon spawning in the Columbia River to hexavalent chromium from the Hanford Site is used as an example of communication challenges with different stakeholders, including Native Americans with Tribal Treaty rights to the land.

Site-dependent regulation of breeding success: evidence for the buffer effect in the common guillemot, a colonially-breeding seabird

Density-dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site-dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the 'buffer effect'. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub-colonies spanning a 38-year period (1981-2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub-colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub-colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub-colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub-colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub-colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub-colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change.

Seabird meta-Population Viability Model (mPVA) methods

The seabird meta-population viability model (mPVA) uses a generalized approach to project abundance and quasi-extinction risk for 102 seabird species under various conservation scenarios. The mPVA is a stage-structured projection matrix that tracks abundance of multiple populations linked by dispersal, accounting for breeding island characteristics and spatial distribution. Data are derived from published studies, grey literature, and expert review (with over 500 contributions). Invasive species impacts were generalized to stage-specific vital rates by fitting a Bayesian state-space model to trend data from Islands where invasive removals had occurred, while accounting for characteristics of seabird biology, breeding islands and invasive species. Survival rates were estimated using a competing hazards formulation to account for impacts of multiple threats, while also allowing for environmental and demographic stochasticity, density dependence and parameter uncertainty.•The mPVA provides resource managers with a tool to quantitatively assess potential benefits of alternative management actions, for multiple species•The mPVA compares projected abundance and quasi-extinction risk under current conditions (no intervention) and various conservation scenarios, including removal of invasive species from specified breeding islands, translocation or reintroduction of individuals to an island of specified location and size, and at-sea mortality amelioration via reduction in annual at-sea deaths.

Episodes of high recruitment buffer against climate-driven mass mortality events in a North Pacific seabird population

Longitudinal studies of marked animals provide an opportunity to assess the relative contributions of survival and reproductive output to population dynamics and change. Cassin's auklets are a long-lived seabird that maximizes annual reproductive effort in resource-rich years through a behaviour called double brooding, the initiation of a second breeding attempt following the success of the first during the same season. Our objective was to explore whether double brooding influenced population change by contributing a greater number of future recruits. We fit temporal symmetry models to 32 years of mark-recapture data of Cassin's auklets to infer the mechanisms underlying the observed variability in per capita recruitment rates. We found that periodic peaks in recruitment were explained by an increase in available nest sites, the proportion of the population double brooding 4 years prior, and spring upwelling conditions. Estimates of population change suggests a relatively stable population throughout the time series, attributable to a 'floating' demographic class of sexually mature individuals excluded from breeding by competition which quickly fill vacant sites following periods of low adult survival. Our results highlight the importance of recruitment in maintaining the population of a long-lived seabird periodically impacted by adverse environmental conditions.

Antibacterial and anatomical defenses in an oil contaminated, vulnerable seaduck

Oil spills have killed thousands of birds during the last 100 years, but nonlethal effects of oil spills on birds remain poorly studied. We measured phenotype characters in 819 eiders Somateria mollissima (279 whole birds and 540 wings) of which 13.6% were oiled. We tested the hypotheses that (a) the morphology of eiders does not change due to oil contamination; (b) the anatomy of organs reflects the physiological reaction to contamination, for example, increase in metabolic demand, increase in food intake, and counteracting toxic effects of oil; (c) large locomotion apparatus that facilitates locomotion increases the risk of getting oiled; and (d) individual eiders with a higher production of secretions from the uropygial grand were more likely to have oil on their plumage. We tested whether 19 characters differed between oiled and nonoiled individuals, showing a consistent pattern. The final model retained seven predictor variables showing relationships between eiders contaminated with oil and food consumption, flight, and diving abilities. We tested whether these effects were due to differences in body condition, liver mass, empty gizzard mass, or other characters that could have been affected by impaired flight and diving ability. There was no evidence of such negative impact of oiling on eiders. We found that significant exposure to oil was associated with increased diversity of antibacterial defense. Oiled eiders did not constitute a random sample, and superior diving ability as reflected by large foot area was at a selective disadvantage during oil spills. Thus, specific characteristics predispose eiders to oiling, with an adaptation to swimming, diving, and flying being traded against the costs of oiling. In contrast, individuals with a high degree of physiological plasticity may experience an advantage because their uropygial secretions counteract the effects of oil contamination.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

Sublethal effects of contaminants on marine habitat-forming species: a review and meta-analysis

Contaminants may affect ecosystem functioning by reducing the fitness of organisms and these impacts may cascade through ecosystems, particularly if the sensitive organisms are also habitat-forming species. Understanding how sub-lethal effects of toxicants can affect the quality and functions of biogenic habitats is critical if we are to establish effective guidelines for protecting ecosystems. We carried out a global systematic review and meta-analysis critically evaluating contaminant effects on properties of habitat-formers linked to ecosystem functioning. We reviewed a total of 95 publications. However, 40% of publications initially captured by the literature search were identified as having flaws in experimental design and ~11% did not present results in an appropriate way and thus were excluded from the quantitative meta-analysis. We quantitatively reviewed 410 studies from 46 publications, of which 313 (~76%) were on plants and seaweeds, that is macro-algae, saltmarsh plants and seagrasses, 58 (~14%) studied corals and 39 (~10%) looked at toxicant impacts on bivalves, with 70% of those on mussels and the remaining studies on oysters. Response variables analysed were photosynthetic efficiency, amount of chlorophyll a (as a proxy for primary production) and growth of plants, seaweeds and corals as well as leaf area of plants. We also analysed filtration, growth and respiration rates of bivalves. Our meta-analysis found that chemical contaminants have a significant negative impact on most of the analysed functional variables, with the exception of the amount of chlorophyll a. Metals were the most widely harmful type of contaminant, significantly decreasing photosynthetic efficiency of kelps, leaf area of saltmarsh plants, growth of fucoids, corals and saltmarsh plants and the filtration rates of bivalves. Organic contaminants decreased the photosynthetic efficiency of seagrass, but had no significant effects on bivalve filtration. We did not find significant effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on any of the analysed functional variables or habitat-forming taxa, but this could be due to the low number of studies available. A meta-regression revealed that relationships between concentrations of metal contaminants and the magnitude of functional responses varied with the type of metal and habitat-former. Increasing concentrations of contaminants significantly increased the negative effects on the photosynthetic efficiency of habitat-formers. There was, however, no apparent relationship between ecologically relevant concentrations of metals and effect sizes of photosynthetic efficiency of corals and seaweeds. A qualitative analysis of all relevant studies found slightly different patterns when compared to our quantitative analysis, emphasising the need for studies to meet critical inclusion criteria for meta-analyses. Our study highlights links between effects of contaminants at lower levels of organisation (i.e. at the biochemical and/or physiological level of individuals) and ecological, large-scale impacts, through effects on habitat-forming species. Contaminants can clearly reduce the functioning of many habitat-forming marine species. We therefore recommend the adoption of routine measures of functional endpoints in monitoring and conservation programs to complement structural measures.

Beyond Thresholds: A Holistic Approach to Impact Assessment Is Needed to Enable Accurate Predictions of Environmental Risk from Oil Spills

The risk assessment for the environmental impact of oil spills in Australia is often conducted in part using a combination of spill mapping and toxicological thresholds derived from laboratory studies. While this process is useful in planning operational responses, such as where to position equipment stockpiles and whether to disperse oil, and can be used to identify areas near the spill site where impacts are likely to occur, it cannot accurately predict the environmental consequences of an oil spill or the ecosystem recovery times. Evidence of this disconnect between model predictions and observed impacts is the lack of a profound effect of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead blowout on recruitment to fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico, contrary to the predictions made in the Natural Resources Damage Assessment and despite the occurrence of impacts of the spill on marine mammals, marshes, and deep water ecosystems. The incongruity between predictions made with the current approach using threshold monitoring and impacts measured in the field results from some of the assumptions included in the oil spill models. The incorrect assumptions include that toxicity is acute, results from dissolved phase exposure, and would be readily reversible. The toxicity tests from which threshold models are derived use members of the ecosystem that are easily studied in the lab but may not represent the ecosystem as a whole. The test species are typically highly abundant plankton or planktonic life stages, and they have life histories that account for rapid changes in environmental conditions. As a consequence, these organisms recover quickly from an oil spill. The interdependence of ecosystem components, including the reliance of organisms on their microbiomes, is often overlooked. Additional research to assess these data gaps conducted using economically and ecologically relevant species, especially in Australia and other understudied areas of the world, and the use of population dynamic models, will improve the accuracy of environmental risk assessment for oil spills. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:813-830. © 2020 SETAC.

Divergent density feedback control of migratory predator recovery following sex-biased perturbations

Uncertainty in risks posed by emerging stressors such as synthetic hormones impedes conservation efforts for threatened vertebrate populations. Synthetic hormones often induce sex-biased perturbations in exposed animals by disrupting gonad development and early life-history stage transitions, potentially diminishing per capita reproductive output of depleted populations and, in turn, being manifest as Allee effects. We use a spatially explicit biophysical model to evaluate how sex-biased perturbation in life-history traits of individuals (maternal investment in egg production and male-skewed sex allocation in offspring) modulates density feedback control of year-class strength and recovery trajectories of a long-lived, migratory fish-shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus)-under spatially and temporally dynamic synthetic androgen exposure and habitat conditions. Simulations show that reduced efficiency of maternal investment in gonad development prolonged maturation time, increased the probability of skipped spawning, and, in turn, shrunk spawner abundance, weakening year-class strength. However, positive density feedback disappeared (no Allee effect) once the exposure ceased. By contrast, responses to the demographic perturbation manifested as strong positive density feedback; an abrupt shift in year-class strength and spawner abundance followed after more than two decades owing to persistent negative population growth (a strong Allee effect), reaching an alternative state without any sign of recovery. When combined with the energetic perturbation, positive density feedback of the demographic perturbation was dampened as extended maturation time reduced the frequency of producing male-biased offspring, allowing the population to maintain positive growth rate (a weak Allee effect) and gradually recover. The emergent patterns in long-term population projections illustrate that sex-biased perturbation in life-history traits can interactively regulate the strength of density feedback in depleted populations such as Scaphirhynchus sturgeon to further diminish reproductive capacity and abundance, posing increasingly greater conservation challenges in chemically altered riverscapes.

Pacific Decadal and El Niño oscillations shape survival of a seabird

Understanding and modeling population change is urgently needed to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity. High trophic-level organisms are influenced by fluctuations of prey quality and abundance, which themselves may depend on climate oscillations. Modeling effects of such fluctuations is challenging because prey populations may vary with multiple climate oscillations occurring at different time scales. The analysis of a 28-yr time series of capture-recapture data of a tropical seabird, the Nazca Booby (Sula granti), in the Galápagos, Ecuador, allowed us to test for demographic effects of two major ocean oscillations occurring at distinct time-scales: the inter-annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-decadal oscillations. As expected for a tropical seabird, survival of fledgling birds was highly affected by extreme ENSO events; by contrast, neither recruitment nor breeding participation were affected by either ENSO or decadal oscillations. More interesting, adult survival, a demographic trait that canalizes response to environmental variations, was unaffected by inter-annual ENSO oscillations yet was shaped by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and small pelagic fish regime. Adult survival decreased during oceanic conditions associated with higher breeding success, an association probably mediated in this species by costs of reproduction that reduce survival when breeding attempts end later. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that survival of a vertebrate can be vulnerable to a natural multidecadal oscillation.

Linking demographic and food-web models to understand management trade-offs

Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multistate models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years, and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on nonfocal species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management.

Investigating the effects of age-related spatial structuring on the transmission of a tick-borne virus in a colonially breeding host

Higher pathogen and parasite transmission is considered a universal cost of colonial breeding due to the physical proximity of colony members. However, this has rarely been tested in natural colonies, which are structured entities, whose members interact with a subset of individuals and differ in their infection histories. We use a population of common guillemots, Uria aalge, infected by a tick-borne virus, Great Island virus, to explore how age-related spatial structuring can influence the infection costs borne by different members of a breeding colony. Previous work has shown that the per-susceptible risk of infection (force of infection) is different for prebreeding (immature) and breeding (adult) guillemots which occupy different areas of the colony. We developed a mathematical model which showed that this difference in infection risk can only be maintained if mixing between these age groups is low. To estimate mixing between age groups, we recorded the movements of 63 individually recognizable, prebreeding guillemots in four different parts of a major colony in the North Sea during the breeding season. Prebreeding guillemots infrequently entered breeding areas (in only 26% of watches), though with marked differences in frequency of entry among individuals and more entries toward the end of the breeding season. Once entered, the proportion of time spent in breeding areas by prebreeding guillemots also varied between different parts of the colony. Our data and model predictions indicate low levels of age-group mixing, limiting exposure of breeding guillemots to infection. However, they also suggest that prebreeding guillemots have the potential to play an important role in driving infection dynamics. This highlights the sensitivity of breeding colonies to changes in the behavior of their members-a subject of particular importance in the context of global environmental change.

Insights on dispersal and recruitment paradigms: sex- and age-dependent variations in a nomadic breeder

Sex- and age-dependence in recruitment and dispersal are often explained by costs arising from competition for holding a breeding territory over the years-a typical feature of species living in stable habitats. For instance, long-lived birds with male territoriality often exhibit large variation in recruitment age and higher dispersal in females and young individuals. As a corollary, we expected that species with ephemeral habitat suitability, and hence nomadic breeding, would show weak age- and sex-dependence in dispersal and low variation in recruitment age, because territory ownership is not maintained over the years. In addition, the higher cost of reproduction in females might not be (over)compensated for by costs of territoriality in males. Accordingly, females would recruit later than males. We explored these variations using multievent capture-recapture models over 13 years, 3479 (2392 sexed) slender-billed gulls (Chroicocephalus genei) and 45 colony sites along the French Mediterranean coast. As expected, variability in recruitment age was low with males recruiting earlier than females. Nonetheless, dispersal in and out of the study area decreased with age and was slightly higher in males than in females. Decreased dispersal with age might result from foraging benefits associated with increased spatial familiarity. Higher dispersal in males might be explained by a male-biased sex ratio or higher philopatry benefits in females (arising from their higher cost of reproduction). Sex- and age-dependent dispersal and recruitment may thus occur in the absence of year-to-year breeding territory ownership, which stresses the importance of considering other processes in shaping recruitment and dispersal patterns.

Evidence for high inter-generational individual quality in yellow-eyed penguins

Longitudinal studies focusing on lifetime reproductive success (LRS) have been used to measure individual breeding performance and identify commonalities among successful breeders. By extending the focus to subsequent generations we identify a proportion of high-quality individuals that contribute disproportionately to the population over multiple generations. We used 23 years of yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) breeding data from one breeding area to identify the proportion of individual birds that raised successful breeders, which in turn raised offspring. We explored which life-history components influenced LRS, as this knowledge would enable conservation resources to be focused on high-performing individuals in this endangered population. From 2,147 birds marked as chicks, 370 (17.2%) survived to adulthood and recruited to their natal location, of which 219 (10.2%) fledged offspring: 124 (56.6%) of the 219 birds produced offspring that recruited as breeders. Only 102 birds (4.8% of 2,147) fledged first-generation offspring that in turn fledged offspring (second-generation offspring, or grand-offspring). We found that ∼25% of the birds that survived to breed had above-average LRS as well as above-average numbers of grand-offspring, and were more likely to have produced first-generation chicks that recruited and also produced above-average numbers of second-generation chicks. Our findings suggest that there is a core of “super-breeders” that contribute disproportionately to the population over successive generations. Lifespan and age-at-first-breeding were correlated with LRS. We suggest that traits of birds relating to longevity, health (e.g., immunocompetence) and fitness could be examined to identify potential links with high LRS and inter-generational fecundity. “Super-breeders” appear to consistently achieve high LRS and long lifespans in a stochastic environment, demonstrating greater resilience in the face of extreme events.

Do stressful conditions make adaptation difficult? Guppies in the oil-polluted environments of southern Trinidad

The ability of populations to rapidly adapt to new environments will determine their future in an increasingly human-modified world. Although meta-analyses do frequently uncover signatures of local adaptation, they also reveal many exceptions. We suggest that particular constraints on local adaptation might arise when organisms are exposed to novel stressors, such as anthropogenic pollution. To inform this possibility, we studied the extent to which guppies (Poecilia reticulata) show local adaptation to oil pollution in southern Trinidad. Neutral genetic markers revealed that paired populations in oil-polluted versus not-polluted habitats diverged independently in two different watersheds. Morphometrics revealed some divergence (particularly in head shape) between these environments, some of which was parallel between rivers. Reciprocal transplant experiments in nature, however, found little evidence of local adaptation based on survival and growth. Moreover, subsequent laboratory experiments showed that the two populations from oil-polluted sites showed only weak local adaptation even when compared to guppies from oil-free northern Trinidad. We conclude that guppies show little local adaptation to oil pollution, which might result from the challenges associated with adaptation to particularly stressful environments. It might also reflect genetic drift owing to small population sizes and/or high gene flow between environments.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird

We estimated annual apparent survival rates, as well as local recruitment rates in different age groups and for different breeding status in the common tern Sterna hirundo using mark-recapture analysis on a long-term individual-based dataset from a breeding colony in Germany. Strong inter-annual variability in survival rates became apparent, especially in prospectors. Local recruitment also varied strongly between years and age groups. To explain these fluctuations, we linked survival and recruitment estimates to several environmental covariates expected to be limiting during the wintering period and migration, including the global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation, fish abundance indices, and marine primary productivity in the West African wintering area. Contrary to expectations, global indices did not seem to be linked strongly to vital rates. Results showed that primary productivity had the strongest effect on annual survival, especially in young and inexperienced individuals. Primary productivity in the wintering area was also strongly associated with the probability of recruitment in the following breeding season, indicating that conditions during winter can have carry-over effects on the life cycle of individuals.

Females better face senescence in the wandering albatross

Sex differences in lifespan and aging are widespread among animals. Since investment in current reproduction can have consequences on other life-history traits, the sex with the highest cost of breeding is expected to suffer from an earlier and/or stronger senescence. This has been demonstrated in polygynous species that are highly dimorphic. However in monogamous species where parental investment is similar between sexes, sex-specific differences in aging patterns of life-history traits are expected to be attenuated. Here, we examined sex and age influences on demographic traits in a very long-lived and sexually dimorphic monogamous species, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). We modelled within the same model framework sex-dependent variations in aging for an array of five life-history traits: adult survival, probability of returning to the breeding colony, probability of breeding and two measures of breeding success (hatching and fledging). We show that life-history traits presented contrasted aging patterns according to sex whereas traits were all similar at young ages. Both sexes exhibited actuarial and reproductive senescence, but, as the decrease in breeding success remained similar for males and females, the survival and breeding probabilities of males were significantly more affected than females. We discuss our results in the light of the costs associated to reproduction, age-related pairing and a biased operational sex-ratio in the population leading to a pool of non-breeders of potentially lower quality and therefore more subject to death or breeding abstention. For a monogamous species with similar parental roles, the patterns observed were surprising and when placed in a gradient of observed age/sex-related variations in life-history traits, wandering albatrosses were intermediate between highly dimorphic polygynous and most monogamous species.

Year-round effects of climate on demographic parameters of an arctic-nesting goose species

Understanding how climate change will affect animal population dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in long-distant migrants exposed to different climatic regimes throughout their annual cycle. We evaluated the effect of temperature throughout the annual cycle on demographic parameters (age-specific survival and recruitment, breeding propensity and fecundity) of the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica L.), an arctic-nesting species. As this is a hunted species, we used the theory of exploited populations to estimate hunting mortality separately from natural mortality in order to evaluate climatic effects only on the latter form of mortality. Our analysis was based on a 22-year marking study (n = 27,150 females) and included live recaptures at the breeding colony and dead recoveries from hunters. We tested the effect of climatic covariates by applying a procedure that accounts for unexplained environmental variation in the demographic parameter to a multistate capture-mark-recapture recruitment model. Breeding propensity, clutch size and hatching probability all increased with high temperatures on the breeding grounds. First-year survival to natural causes of mortality increased when temperature was high at the end of the summer, whereas adult survival was not affected by temperature. On the contrary, accession to reproduction decreased with warmer climatic conditions during the non-breeding season. Survival was strongly negatively related to hunting mortality in adults, as expected, but not in first-year birds, which suggests the possibility of compensation between natural and hunting mortality in the latter group. We show that events occurring both at and away from the breeding ground can affect the demography of migratory birds, either directly or through carryover effects, and sometimes in opposite ways. This highlights the need to account for the whole life cycle of an animal when attempting to project the response of populations to future climatic changes.

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication.

Immigrants are attracted by local pre-breeders and recruits in a seabird colony

Immigration is a major demographic factor shaping population dynamics. However, due to methodological difficulties, the extent of immigration and factors affecting immigration are insufficiently studied. This is also true for seabird colonies. We estimated annual immigration based on a long-term study of a colony of common terns Sterna hirundo marked with transponders, using a Bayesian integrated population model that links colony size and productivity with individual life histories. Strong annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants were found. To identify whether colony-specific covariates influenced immigration, we related the number of immigrants to various proxy variables for breeding site quality, specifically colony size, productivity, number of local subadults and local recruits. Numbers of local recruits and local subadults showed strong positive correlations with number of immigrants. We found that variation in immigration rate had strongly contributed to variation in colony growth rate, more so than variation in local recruitment or adult survival. Collectively, results suggest that immigration strongly affects colony growth rate, that the driving force behind immigration is natal dispersal and that immigrants were attracted by local recruits.

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life-history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life-history trade-offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life-history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state-dependent variation in life-history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non-breeding birds. Using a 50-year dataset on the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life-history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non-breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi-biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade-offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its relationship with costs of reproduction at the population level. It paves the way for individual-based studies that could show the importance of intra-population heterogeneity in those processes.

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.

Individual heterogeneity in black brant survival and recruitment with implications for harvest dynamics

We examined individual heterogeneity in survival and recruitment of female Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) using frailty models adapted to a capture-mark-recapture context. Our main objectives were (1) to quantify levels of heterogeneity and examine factors affecting heterogeneity, and (2) model the effects of individual heterogeneity on harvest dynamics through matrix models. We used 24 years of data on brant marked and recaptured at the Tutakoke River colony, AK. Multievent models were fit as hidden Markov chain using program E-SURGE with an adequate overdispersion coefficient. Annual survival of individuals marked as goslings was heterogeneous among individuals and year specific with about 0.23 difference in survival between "high" (0.73)- and "low" (0.50)-quality individuals at average survival probability. Adult survival (0.85 ± 0.004) was homogeneous and higher than survival of both groups of juveniles. The annual recruitment probability was heterogeneous for brant >1-year-old; 0.56 (±0.21) and 0.31 (±0.03) for high- and low-quality individuals, respectively. Assuming equal clutch sizes for high- and low-quality individuals and that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as the breeding female resulted in reproductive values about twice as high for high-quality individuals than low-quality individual for a given class of individuals producing differential contributions to population growth among groups. Differences in reproductive values greatly increased when we assumed high-quality individuals had larger clutch sizes. When we assumed that 50% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers and clutches were equal, differences in reproductive values between quality classes were greatly reduced or eliminated (breeders [BRs]). We considered several harvest scenarios using the assumption that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers. The amount of compensation for harvest mortality declined as the proportion of high-quality individuals in the harvest increased, as differences in clutch sizes between groups decreased and as the proportion of BRs in the harvest increased. Synthesis and applications. Harvest at the same proportional level of the overall population can result in variable responses in population growth rate when heterogeneity is present in a population. λ was <1.0 under every scenario when harvest rates were >10%, and heterogeneity caused as much as +2% difference in growth rates at the highest levels of proportional harvest for low-quality individuals and the greatest differences in qualities between classes of individuals, a critical difference for a population with λ near 1.0 such as the brant. We observed less response in overall survival in the presence of heterogeneity because we did not observe heterogeneity in the annual survival of BRs. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of overall compensation at the population level and also constitutes the first example of a survival-recruitment model with heterogeneity. Individual heterogeneity should be more explicitly considered in harvest management of vertebrates.

Chaos in a seasonally perturbed SIR model: avian influenza in a seabird colony as a paradigm

Seasonality is a complex force in nature that affects multiple processes in wild animal populations. In particular, seasonal variations in demographic processes may considerably affect the persistence of a pathogen in these populations. Furthermore, it has been long observed in computer simulations that under seasonal perturbations, a host-pathogen system can exhibit complex dynamics, including the transition to chaos, as the magnitude of the seasonal perturbation increases. In this paper, we develop a seasonally perturbed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of avian influenza in a seabird colony. Numerical simulations of the model give rise to chaotic recurrent epidemics for parameters that reflect the ecology of avian influenza in a seabird population, thereby providing a case study for chaos in a host- pathogen system. We give a computer-assisted exposition of the existence of chaos in the model using methods that are based on the concept of topological hyperbolicity. Our approach elucidates the geometry of the chaos in the phase space of the model, thereby offering a mechanism for the persistence of the infection. Finally, the methods described in this paper may be immediately extended to other infections and hosts, including humans.

The interaction between reproductive cost and individual quality is mediated by oceanic conditions in a long-lived bird

Environmental variability, costs of reproduction, and heterogeneity in individual quality are three important sources of the temporal and interindividual variations in vital rates of wild populations. Based on an 18-year monitoring of an endangered, recently described, long-lived seabird, Monteiro's Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi), we designed multistate survival models to separate the effects of the reproductive cost (breeders vs. nonbreeders) and individual quality (successful vs. unsuccessful breeders) in relation to temporally variable demographic and oceanographic properties. The analysis revealed a gradient of individual quality from nonbreeders, to unsuccessful breeders, to successful breeders. The survival rates of unsuccessful breeders (0.90 +/- 0.023, mean +/- SE) tended to decrease in years of high average breeding success and were more sensitive to oceanographic variation than those of both (high-quality) successful breeders (0.97 +/- 0.015) and (low-quality) nonbreeders (0.83 +/- 0.028). Overall, our results indicate that reproductive costs act on individuals of intermediate quality and are mediated by environmental harshness.

Parental age and lifespan influence offspring recruitment: a long-term study in a seabird

Recent studies of wild populations provide compelling evidence that survival and reproduction decrease with age because of senescence, a decline in functional capacities at old ages. However, in the wild, little is known about effects of parental senescence on offspring quality. We used data from a 21-year study to examine the role of parental age on offspring probability of recruitment in a long-lived bird, the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii). Offspring probability of recruiting into the breeding population varied over the life of parents and effects age were similar in mothers and fathers. Offspring recruitment was high when parents were roughly 6-12 years old and low before and after then. Effects of parental age on offspring recruitment varied with lifespan (parental age at last reproduction) and previous breeding experience. Offspring recruitment from young and old parents with long reproductive lifespans was greater than that of offspring from parents with short lifespans at young and old ages. For parents with little previous breeding experience recruitment of offspring decreased with their hatch date, but experienced parents were no similarly affected. We found evidence of terminal effects on offspring recruitment in young parents but not in older parents, suggesting that senescence is more likely a gradual process of deterioration than a process of terminal illness. Failure to recruit probably reflects mortality during the first years after independence but also during the fledgling transition to full independence. Our results show effects of parental age and quality on offspring viability in a long-lived wild vertebrate and support the idea that wild populations are composed of individuals of different quality, and that this individual heterogeneity can influence the dynamics of age-structured populations.

Studying the reproductive skipping behavior in long-lived birds by adding nest inspection to individual-based data

The frequency at which individuals breed is an important parameter in population, as well as in evolutionary, studies. However, when nonbreeding individuals are absent from the study area, the reproductive skipping is usually confounded with a recapture failure and cannot be estimated directly. Yet, there are situations in which external information may help to estimate reproductive skipping. Such a situation is found with nest-tenacious birds: the fact that an individual is not encountered in its previous nest is a good indication that it must be skipping reproduction. We illustrate here a general probabilistic framework in which we merged the classical individual capture-recapture information with nest-based information to obtain the simultaneous estimate of recapture, survival, reproductive skipping, and within-colony breeding dispersal probabilities using multi-event models. We applied this approach to Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a long-lived burrow-nesting seabird. By comparing results with those obtained from the analysis of the capture-recapture information alone, we showed that the model separates successfully the probabilities of recapture from those of temporal emigration. We found that the probabilities of future reproduction and breeding-site fidelity were lower for individuals temporarily absent from the colony, suggesting a lower intrinsic quality of intermittent breeders. The new probabilistic framework presented here allowed us to refine the estimates of demographic parameters by simply adding nest-based data, a type of information usually collected in the field but never included in the analysis of individual-based data. Our approach also provides a new and flexible way to test hypotheses on temporal emigration and breeding dispersal in longitudinal data.

Global population status of shy albatross and an assessment of colony-specific trends and drivers

Context Monitoring the status of albatross populations and identifying the factors driving observed trends remain international conservation and management priorities. The shy albatross is endemic to Australia and breeds only on three Tasmanian islands. Aims To provide a reliable total population estimate for shy albatross, including an assessment of demographic trends for each of the three populations where possible. We consider also key drivers of population trends for each population, particularly the potential role of fisheries by-catch, with an overall aim of determining the status of the species. Methods Aerial photography and ground surveys were used to estimate the number of annual breeding pairs and trends in adult and juvenile survival rates were calculated using mark–recapture methods. At-sea distribution data was used to identify population specific trends in the overlap of shy albatross and fisheries to evaluate the potential influence of fisheries by-catch on the populations. Key Results The Albatross Island population increased post-harvesting but has recently stabilised at around 5200 breeding pairs, less than half its estimated historic size. This trajectory change appears driven by a decrease in juvenile survival. The small (170 breeding pairs) Pedra Branca population has recently declined, probably due to reduced breeding success associated with the increasing population of Australasian gannets (Morus serrator) on the island. The largest population (on Mewstone) comprises at least 9500 breeding pairs. Trends for this population are unknown. However, this paper demonstrates that these birds have greater overlap with trawl and longline fishing effort and are consequently at higher risk of fishing-related mortality. Conclusions Given the extent of fisheries overlap, survival rates for Mewstone individuals are likely to be lower than the Albatross Island population. Combined with recent trends on Pedra Branca and Albatross Island, we suggest that the current status of the shy albatross is likely to be stable at best and quite possibly decreasing. Implications The concerns raised about the conservation status of shy albatross reinforce the importance of continued population monitoring focussed particularly on establishing the trend of Mewstone. A thorough assessment of interactions with trawl fishing operations also is a management priority for this species.