Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests

In many parts of the world forest disturbance regimes have intensified recently, and future climatic changes are expected to amplify this development further in the coming decades. These changes are increasingly challenging the main objectives of forest ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain the biological diversity of forests. Yet a comprehensive understanding of how disturbances affect these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. We conducted a global literature review on the impact of three of the most important disturbance agents (fire, wind, and bark beetles) on 13 different ecosystem services and three indicators of biodiversity in forests of the boreal, cool- and warm-temperate biomes. Our objectives were to (i) synthesize the effect of natural disturbances on a wide range of possible objectives of forest management, and (ii) investigate standardized effect sizes of disturbance for selected indicators via a quantitative meta-analysis. We screened a total of 1958 disturbance studies published between 1981 and 2013, and reviewed 478 in detail. We first investigated the overall effect of disturbances on individual ecosystem services and indicators of biodiversity by means of independence tests, and subsequently examined the effect size of disturbances on indicators of carbon storage and biodiversity by means of regression analysis. Additionally, we investigated the effect of commonly used approaches of disturbance management, i.e. salvage logging and prescribed burning. We found that disturbance impacts on ecosystem services are generally negative, an effect that was supported for all categories of ecosystem services, i.e. supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services (P < 0.001). Indicators of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, habitat quality and diversity indices, on the other hand were found to be influenced positively by disturbance (P < 0.001). Our analyses thus reveal a 'disturbance paradox', documenting that disturbances can put ecosystem services at risk while simultaneously facilitating biodiversity. A detailed investigation of disturbance effect sizes on carbon storage and biodiversity further underlined these divergent effects of disturbance. While a disturbance event on average causes a decrease in total ecosystem carbon by 38.5% (standardized coefficient for stand-replacing disturbance), it on average increases overall species richness by 35.6%. Disturbance-management approaches such as salvage logging and prescribed burning were neither found significantly to mitigate negative effects on ecosystem services nor to enhance positive effects on biodiversity, and thus were not found to alleviate the disturbance paradox. Considering that climate change is expected to intensify natural disturbance regimes, our results indicate that biodiversity will generally benefit from such changes while a sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services might come increasingly under pressure. This underlines that disturbance risk and resilience require increased attention in ecosystem management in the future, and that new approaches to addressing the disturbance paradox in management are needed.

Effects of forest spatial structure on insect outbreaks: insights from a host-parasitoid model

Understanding how cycles of forest-defoliating insects are affected by forest destruction is of major importance for forest management. Achieving such an understanding with data alone is difficult, however, because population cycles are typically driven by species interactions that are highly nonlinear. We therefore constructed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of forest destruction on defoliator cycles, focusing on defoliator cycles driven by parasitoids. Our model shows that forest destruction can increase defoliator density when parasitoids disperse much farther than defoliators because the benefits of reduced defoliator mortality due to increased parasitoid dispersal mortality exceed the costs of increased defoliator dispersal mortality. This novel result can explain observations of increased outbreak duration with increasing forest fragmentation in forest tent caterpillar populations. Our model also shows that larger habitat patches can mitigate habitat loss, with clear implications for forest management. To better understand our results, we developed an approximate model that shows that defoliator spatial dynamics can be predicted from the proportion of dispersing animals that land in suitable habitat. This approximate model is practically useful because its parameters can be estimated from widely available data. Our model thus suggests that forest destruction may exacerbate defoliator outbreaks but that management practices could mitigate such effects.

Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius

The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (F_ST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations.

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales

BACKGROUND

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.

METHODS

And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.

CONCLUSIONS

In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

Why are metapopulations so rare?

Roughly 40 years after its introduction, the metapopulation concept is central to population ecology. The notion that local populations and their dynamics may be coupled by dispersal is without any doubt of great importance for our understanding of population-level processes. A metapopulation describes a set of subpopulations linked by (rare) dispersal events in a dynamic equilibrium of extinctions and recolonizations. In the large body of literature that has accumulated, the term "metapopulation" is often used in a very broad sense; most of the time it simply implies spatial heterogeneity. A number of reviews have recently addressed this problem and have pointed out that, despite the large and still growing popularity of the metapopulation concept, there are only very few empirical examples that conform with the strict classical metapopulation (CM) definition. In order to understand this discrepancy between theory and observation, we use an individual-based modeling approach that allows us to pinpoint the environmental conditions and the life-history attributes required for the emergence of a CM structure. We find that CM dynamics are restricted to a specific parameter range at the border between spatially structured but completely occupied and globally extinct populations. Considering general life-history attributes, our simulations suggest that CMs are more likely to occur in arthropod species than in (large) vertebrates. Since the specific type of spatial population structure determines conservation concepts, our findings have important implications for conservation biology. Our model suggests that most spatially structured populations are panmictic, patchy, or of mainland-island type, which makes efforts spent on increasing connectivity (e.g., corridors) questionable. If one does observe a true CM structure, this means that the focal metapopulation is on the brink of extinction and that drastic conservation measures are needed.