Climate change affects the duration of the reproductive season in birds

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

Delayed egg-laying in Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio in relation to increased rainfall in east-central Poland

Climate change has affected the breeding parameters of many animal species. In birds, most studies have focused on the effects of temperature on clutch phenology and clutch size. The long-term influence of other weather factors, including rainfall, on breeding parameters have been analysed much less often. Based on a 23-year dataset and 308 broods, we documented shifts in the timing of breeding, clutch size and mean egg volume in a long-distance migrant, the Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio, from a central European population. We found a 5-day shift towards delayed breeding, but no differences in brood size or egg volume during those 23 years. The GLM analysis showed that the mean May temperature had a positive influence on the clutch initiation date, whereas the number of days with rain delayed laying. During the period 1999-2021, there was no change in the mean May temperature, but total precipitation and the number of days with rain in May increased. Thus, delayed nesting in this population was probably due to the increase in rainfall during this period. Our results provide a rare example of delayed nesting in birds in recent years. Predicted changes in the climate make it difficult to assess the long-term impact of global warming on the viability of Red-backed Shrike populations in east-central Poland.

Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population

Global warming has multiple effects on phenological events on a wide range of plants and animals. Specifically, many bird species have advanced the start of their breeding season, which could also imply an extension in its duration and also a change in the distribution of clutches throughout the breeding season. We have tested whether this occurred in a population of Great Tits (Parus major), in Sagunto (eastern Spain). The increase of March temperatures between 1986 and 2019 was related to an advancement of the breeding season. Although the breeding season was longer in years with higher June temperatures, the length did not show a temporal trend throughout the study period. The clutches were more concentrated at the beginning of the season (increase in the skewness), while the kurtosis ("tailedness" of the distribution) or the modality did not change significantly. Finally, the number of "equally good months" for breeding (a combined measure of length and distribution) has not changed throughout the years. Overall, all these phenological changes probably caused the observed increased proportion of pairs laying two clutches per year. It remains to be studied whether this increase in reproductive effort has positive or negative impact on fitness.

An early warning system for highly pathogenic viruses borne by waterbird species and related dynamics of climate change in the Caspian Sea region: Outlines of a concept

Aim. Formulation of the outlines of the concept of ViEW (Viral Early Warning) which is intended as a long term system of multidisciplinary transboundary cooperation between specialist institutions of all five Caspian region states to research, regularly monitor and share data about the generation, transmission and epidemiology of avian‐borne pathogens and their vectors in the region, and the ways climate change may affect these processes.

Material and Methods. The concept is based on the multidisciplinary experience of the authors in researching the processes incorporated in the ViEW concept and on an in‐depth survey of the literature involved.

Results. The outlines of the ViEW concept are presented in this study for review and comment by interested parties and stakeholders.

Conclusion. Review of activities and opinions of specialists and organizations with remits relating to the development, establishment and maintenance of ViEW, indicates that such a system is a necessity for global animal and human health because of the role that the Caspian region plays in the mass migration of species of waterbird known as vectors for avian influenza and the already evident impacts of climate change on their phenologies. Waterbirds frequenting the Caspian Sea littorals and their habitats together constitute a major potential global hotspot or High Risk region for the generation and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses and other dangerous zoonotic diseases.

Plasticity in female timing may explain earlier breeding in a North American songbird

Many species have shifted their breeding phenology in response to climate change. Identifying the magnitude of phenological shifts and whether climate-mediated selection drives these shifts is key for determining species' resilience to climate change. Birds are a strong model for studying phenological shifts due to numerous long-term research studies; however, generalities pertaining to drivers of phenological shifts will emerge only as we add study species that differ in life history and geography. We investigated 32 years of reproductive timing in a non-migratory population of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). We predicted that plasticity in reproductive timing would allow females to breed earlier in warmer springs. We also predicted that selection would favour earlier breeding and asked whether the temperatures throughout the breeding season would predict the strength of selection. To test these predictions, we examined temporal changes in the annual median date for reproductive onset (i.e., first egg date) and we used a sliding window analysis to identify spring temperatures driving these patterns. Next, we explored plasticity in reproductive timing and asked whether selection favoured earlier breeding. Lastly, we used a sliding window analysis to identify the time during the breeding season that temperature was most associated with selection favouring earlier breeding. First egg dates occurred earlier over time and strongly covaried with April temperatures. Further, individual females that bred in more than one year, typically bred earlier in warmer Aprils, exhibiting plastic responses to April temperature. We also found significant overall selection favouring earlier breeding (i.e., higher relative fitness with earlier first egg dates) and variation in selection for earlier breeding over time. However, temperature across diverse climatic windows did not predict the strength of selection. Our findings provide further evidence for the role of phenotypic plasticity in shifting phenology in response to earlier springs. We also provide evidence for the role of selection favouring earlier breeding, regardless of temperature, thus setting the stage for adaptive changes in female breeding phenology. We suggest for multi-brooded birds that advancing first egg dates likely increases the length of the breeding season, and therefore, reproductive success.

The emergence of ecotypes in a parasitoid wasp: a case of incipient sympatric speciation in Hymenoptera?

Background

To understand which reproductive barriers initiate speciation is a major question in evolutionary research. Despite their high species numbers and specific biology, there are only few studies on speciation in Hymenoptera. This study aims to identify very early reproductive barriers in a local, sympatric population of Nasonia vitripennis (Walker 1836), a hymenopterous parasitoid of fly pupae. We studied ecological barriers, sexual barriers, and the reduction in F1-female offspring as a postmating barrier, as well as the population structure using microsatellites.

Results

We found considerable inbreeding within female strains and a population structure with either three or five subpopulation clusters defined by microsatellites. In addition, there are two ecotypes, one parasitizing fly pupae in bird nests and the other on carrion. The nest ecotype is mainly formed from one of the microsatellite clusters, the two or four remaining microsatellite clusters form the carrion ecotype. There was slight sexual isolation and a reduction in F1-female offspring between inbreeding strains from the same microsatellite clusters and the same ecotypes. Strains from different microsatellite clusters are separated by a reduction in F1-female offspring. Ecotypes are separated only by ecological barriers.

Conclusions

This is the first demonstration of very early reproductive barriers within a sympatric population of Hymenoptera. It demonstrates that sexual and premating barriers can precede ecological separation. This indicates the complexity of ecotype formation and highlights the general need for more studies within homogenous populations for the identification of the earliest barriers in the speciation process.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01938-y.

Widespread shifts in bird migration phenology are decoupled from parallel shifts in morphology

Advancements in phenology and changes in morphology, including body size reductions, are among the most commonly described responses to globally warming temperatures. Although these dynamics are routinely explored independently, the relationships among them and how their interactions facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change are poorly understood. In migratory species, advancing phenology may impose selection on morphological traits to increase migration speed. Advancing spring phenology might also expose species to cooler temperatures during the breeding season, potentially mitigating the effect of a warming global environment on body size. We use a dataset of birds that died after colliding with buildings in Chicago, IL to test whether changes in migration phenology are related to documented declines in body size and increases in wing length in 52 North American migratory bird species between 1978 and 2016. For each species, we estimate temporal trends in morphology and changes in the timing of migration. We then test for associations between species-specific rates of phenological and morphological changes while assessing the potential effects of migratory distance and breeding latitude. We show that spring migration through Chicago has advanced while the timing of fall migration has broadened as a result of early fall migrants advancing their migrations and late migrants delaying their migrations. Within species, we found that longer wing length was linked to earlier spring migration within years. However, we found no evidence that rates of phenological change across years, or migratory distance and breeding latitude, are predictive of rates of concurrent changes in morphological traits. These findings suggest that biotic responses to climate change are highly multidimensional and the extent to which those responses interact and influence adaptation to climate change requires careful examination.

Spatio-temporal variation in the wintering associations of an alpine bird

Many animals make behavioural changes to cope with winter conditions, being gregariousness a common strategy. Several factors have been invoked to explain why gregariousness may evolve during winter, with individuals coming together and separating as they trade off the different costs and benefits of living in groups. These trade-offs may, however, change over space and time as a response to varying environmental conditions. Despite its importance, little is known about the factors triggering gregarious behaviour during winter and its change in response to variation in weather conditions is poorly documented. Here, we aimed at quantifying large-scale patterns in wintering associations over 23 years of the white-winged snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis nivalis. We found that individuals gather in larger groups at sites with harsh wintering conditions. Individuals at colder sites reunite later and separate earlier in the season than at warmer sites. However, the magnitude and phenology of wintering associations are ruled by changes in weather conditions. When the temperature increased or the levels of precipitation decreased, group size substantially decreased, and individuals stayed united in groups for a shorter time. These results shed light on factors driving gregariousness and points to shifting winter climate as an important factor influencing this behaviour.

Fitness consequences of longer breeding seasons of a migratory passerine under changing climatic conditions

Numerous studies have shown that climate change affects the timing of migration and bird laying dates, but the resulting changes in the duration of breeding seasons and their fitness consequences remain largely unknown. We compared breeding parameters of 343 individually marked female Eurasian reed warblers, a multi-brooded migratory passerine, studied in the same area in 1980-1983 and 2005-2012. The latter period was warmer, with mean temperatures during the breeding season higher by 1.5°C on average. As, in recent years, birds arrive earlier from wintering areas and the breeding season of the population is longer, we hypothesized it should result in the increased re-nesting opportunities of individual females. We found that breeding periods of individual females (from building of the first nest till the end of caring for last fledglings/last nest failure) in the current century have extended by 2 weeks compared to the 1980s. In the 2000s, females produced 75% more fledglings annually than females in the 1980s (2.8 vs. 1.6, respectively). The proportion of females raising second broods increased from 2.7% to 23.6% between the first and the second study period while the share of females that did not produce any young annually decreased from 48.1% to 15.5%. The higher offspring production in recent years was related to more successfully fledged broods and an earlier start of breeding, which secured more time to re-nest. Higher female parental effort in recent years was not manifested in the reduction of the female apparent survival: it was almost identical in the two study periods (0.30 vs. 0.31). We conclude that prolonged reproductive seasons might be beneficial for some species. Identifying causes and consequences of changes in the duration of breeding seasons may be essential to predict demography of populations under changing climatic conditions.

Reproductive patterns and energy management strategies of females of the fiddler crab Leptuca uruguayensis with short reproductive seasons

Reproduction is a costly process that depends on the management of available resources. Here, we aimed to understand the energetic strategies of females of the fiddler crab Leptuca uruguayensis (Nobili, 1901) in a population with short reproductive seasons. For this, we developed an integrated approach to recognize the brooding time, spawning pattern modulated by female size, number of spawns per female, and content of reserves in the ovary and hepatopancreas. Based on the condition of the ovary and hepatopancreas, the reproductive season was divided into three periods. In each of these periods, it was possible to record a spawning event, which was mainly represented by large females. Most of the females had one spawn during the breeding season, and only large females had two spawns, with an interval of approximately 2 months. We propose that L. uruguayensis presents a mixed capital–income breeding strategy associated with the female size and period of the reproductive season. We conclude that large females make the greatest reproductive effort for the population because they can have two spawns, whereas medium-sized and small females make a low contribution because they are still investing energy in somatic growth to increase fecundity in the next reproductive season.

Warmer April Temperatures on Breeding Grounds Promote Earlier Nesting in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird, the Prothonotary Warbler

Global climate change and warming are altering hemispheric and local weather patterns. Altered weather patterns have great potential to affect the phenology of life history events, such as the initiation of breeding in organisms that reproduce seasonally. Long-distance migratory birds may be particularly challenged by changes in local weather on breeding grounds because they arrive from distant locations and must commence breeding when conditions are appropriate. Here we explore the effects of local temperature on first egg dates and annual productivity in a long-distance Neotropical migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler Protonotaria citrea. We present results from a 20-year (1994 to 2013) study documenting the detailed nesting activities of a color-marked population (average of 155 individual females each year) of warblers in southern Illinois, United States. The warblers typically arrive in April and start breeding in late April and May in our study system. We tested for an effect of local average April daily temperature and female age on first egg dates, total number of offspring produced per female, and the probability of fledging two broods. We found that warmer April temperatures promoted earlier first egg dates and higher average annual productivity in the warblers. On average, older females had earlier first egg dates than 1-year-old females, but both age groups responded similarly to local April temperatures. The reproductive gains associated with earlier first egg dates in warmer years stemmed from an increased probability of successfully fledging two broods, suggesting that earlier first egg dates do not currently create a mismatch with food (insect) resources. Earliest arrival dates of warblers to the region of our study system were not affected by local April temperatures, suggesting that females vary their first egg date based on conditions they experience/assess after their arrival. Whereas these birds currently adjust the timing of their breeding and actually produce more offspring in warmer years, continued global warming may eventually upset the current balance between arrival dates, food resources, and the commencement of nesting.

Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades

The changing climate is causing shifts in the timing of species activity. We use data on over 820,000 nesting records to quantify changes in the beginning, end, and duration of breeding among boreal birds. In addition to a general advance of breeding, we find an overall contraction of the breeding period. This pattern was most common among resident and short-distance migrating species. Overall, we detect a shift in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction, involving the start and end of reproduction and how concentrated the breeding period is. From a methodological perspective, our study illustrates that a focus on quantifying phenological advances alone may mask important patterns of phenology change across the season.

Breeding timed to match optimal resource abundance is vital for the successful reproduction of species, and breeding is therefore sensitive to environmental cues. As the timing of breeding shifts with a changing climate, this may not only affect the onset of breeding but also its termination, and thus the length of the breeding period. We use an extensive dataset of over 820K nesting records of 73 bird species across the boreal region in Finland to probe for changes in the beginning, end, and duration of the breeding period over four decades (1975 to 2017). We uncover a general advance of breeding with a strong phylogenetic signal but no systematic variation over space. Additionally, 31% of species contracted their breeding period in at least one bioclimatic zone, as the end of the breeding period advanced more than the beginning. We did not detect a statistical difference in phenological responses of species with combinations of different migratory strategy or number of broods. Nonetheless, we find systematic differences in species responses, as the contraction in the breeding period was found almost exclusively in resident and short-distance migrating species, which generally breed early in the season. Overall, changes in the timing and duration of reproduction may potentially lead to more broods co-occurring in the early breeding season—a critical time for species’ reproductive success. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying phenological change across species and over the entire season to reveal shifts in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction.

Earlier springs enable high-Arctic wolf spiders to produce a second clutch

Spiders at southern latitudes commonly produce multiple clutches, but this has not been observed at high latitudes where activity seasons are much shorter. Yet the timing of snowmelt is advancing in the Arctic, which may allow some species to produce an additional clutch. To determine if this is already happening, we used specimens of the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis caught by pitfall traps from the long-term (1996-2014) monitoring programme at Zackenberg, NE Greenland. We dissected individual egg sacs and counted the number of eggs and partially developed juveniles, and measured carapace width of the mothers. Upon the discovery of a bimodal frequency distribution of clutch sizes, as is typical for wolf spiders at lower latitudes producing a second clutch, we assigned egg sacs to being a first or second clutch depending on clutch size. We tested whether the median capture date differed among first and second clutches, whether clutch size was correlated to female size, and whether the proportion of second clutches produced within a season was related to climate. We found that assigned second clutches appeared significantly later in the season than first clutches. In years with earlier snowmelt, first clutches occurred earlier and the proportion of second clutches produced was larger. Likely, females produce their first clutch earlier in those years which allow them time to produce another clutch. Clutch size for first clutches was correlated to female size, while this was not the case for second clutches. Our results provide the first evidence for Arctic invertebrates producing additional clutches in response to warming. This could be a common but overlooked phenomenon due to the challenges associated with long-term collection of life-history data in the Arctic. Moreover, given that wolf spiders are a widely distributed, important tundra predator, we may expect to see population and food web consequences of their increased reproductive rates.

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi-brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi-brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi-brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a "sliding window" approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species' phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals' breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi-brooded species may have been underestimated.

Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change

Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.

The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity

A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such "trophic asynchrony" is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long-term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline.

Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34-year study of a temperate songbird

Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34-year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free-living species, re-visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species.

The effect of climate change on the duration of avian breeding seasons: a meta-analysis

Many bird species are advancing the timing of their egg-laying in response to a warming climate. Little is known, however, of whether this advancement affects the respective length of the breeding seasons. A meta-analysis of 65 long-term studies of 54 species from the Northern Hemisphere has revealed that within the last 45 years an average population has lengthened the season by 1.4 days per decade, which was independent from changes in mean laying dates. Multi-brooded birds have prolonged their seasons by 4 days per decade, while single-brooded have shortened by 2 days. Changes in season lengths covaried with local climate changes: warming was correlated with prolonged seasons in multi-brooded species, but not in single-brooders. This might be a result of higher ecological flexibility of multi-brooded birds, whereas single brooders may have problems with synchronizing their reproduction with the peak of food resources. Sedentary species and short-distance migrants prolonged their breeding seasons more than long-distance migrants, which probably cannot track conditions at their breeding grounds. We conclude that as long as climate warming continues without major changes in ecological conditions, multi-brooded or sedentary species will probably increase their reproductive output, while the opposite effect may occur in single-brooded or migratory birds.

Breeding decisions and output are correlated with both temperature and rainfall in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver

Animal reproductive cycles are commonly triggered by environmental cues of favourable breeding conditions. In arid environments, rainfall may be the most conspicuous cue, but the effects on reproduction of the high inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature remain poorly understood, despite being relevant to the current context of global warming. Here, we conducted a multiyear examination of the relationships between a suite of measures of temperature and rainfall, and the onset and length of the breeding season, the probability of breeding and reproductive output in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). As expected, reproductive output increased with rainfall, yet specific relationships were conditional on the timing of rainfall: clutch production was correlated with rainfall throughout the season, whereas fledgling production was correlated with early summer rainfall. Moreover, we reveal novel correlations between aspects of breeding and temperature, indicative of earlier laying dates after warmer springs, and longer breeding seasons during cooler summers. These results have implications for understanding population trends under current climate change scenarios and call for more studies on the role of temperature in reproduction beyond those conducted on temperate-region species.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.

Pathogenic bacteria and timing of laying

Pathogenic bacteria constitute a serious threat to viability of many organisms. Because growth of most bacteria is favored by humid and warm environmental conditions, earlier reproducers in seasonal environments should suffer less from the negative consequences of pathogenic bacteria. These relationships, and the effects on reproductive success, should be particularly prominent in predators because they are frequently exposed to pathogenic microorganisms from sick prey. Here, we presented and tested this hypothesis by sampling bacteria on adult and nestling goshawks Accipiter gentilis. We predicted that early breeders and their offspring should have fewer bacteria than those reproducing later during the breeding season. Adult goshawks with a high abundance of Staphylococcus on their beak and claws were easier to capture and their laying date was delayed. Moreover, goshawks that laid their eggs later had offspring with more Staphylococcus on their beaks and claws. The strength of the association between laying date and bacterial density of nestlings was stronger during the warm spring of 2013, when nestlings suffered from a higher abundance of pathogenic bacteria. Hatching failure and fledging failure were more common in nests with a higher abundance of Staphylococcus independently of the number of years occupied, laying date, and age of the female nest owner. These findings imply that timing of reproduction may be under the influence of pathogenic bacteria. Because early breeding goshawks produce more recruits than later breeders, our results suggest a role for pathogenic bacteria in the optimal timing of reproduction.

Assessing the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions: a comparative study of European birds and their parasites

Background

Climate change potentially has important effects on distribution, abundance, transmission and virulence of parasites in wild populations of animals.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Here we analyzed paired information on 89 parasite populations for 24 species of bird hosts some years ago and again in 2010 with an average interval of 10 years. The parasite taxa included protozoa, feather parasites, diptera, ticks, mites and fleas. We investigated whether change in abundance and prevalence of parasites was related to change in body condition, reproduction and population size of hosts. We conducted analyses based on the entire dataset, but also on a restricted dataset with intervals between study years being 5–15 years. Parasite abundance increased over time when restricting the analyses to datasets with an interval of 5–15 years, with no significant effect of changes in temperature at the time of breeding among study sites. Changes in host body condition and clutch size were related to change in temperature between first and second study year. In addition, changes in clutch size, brood size and body condition of hosts were correlated with change in abundance of parasites. Finally, changes in population size of hosts were not significantly related to changes in abundance of parasites or their prevalence.

Conclusions/Significance

Climate change is associated with a general increase in parasite abundance. Variation in laying date depended on locality and was associated with latitude while body condition of hosts was associated with a change in temperature. Because clutch size, brood size and body condition were associated with change in parasitism, these results suggest that parasites, perhaps mediated through the indirect effects of temperature, may affect fecundity and condition of their hosts. The conclusions were particularly in accordance with predictions when the restricted dataset with intervals of 5–15 years was used, suggesting that short intervals may bias findings.

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales

Climate change-induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17-year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally-derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years – a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader-scale predictive models of future phenological shifts.

Warm springs, early lay dates, and double brooding in a North American migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler

Numerous studies have correlated the advancement of lay date in birds with warming climate trends, yet the fitness effects associated with this phenological response have been examined in only a small number of species. Most of these species–primarily insectivorous cavity nesters in Europe–exhibit fitness declines associated with increasing asynchrony with prey. Here, we use 25 years of demographic data, collected from 1986 to 2010, to examine the effects of spring temperature on breeding initiation date, double brooding, and annual fecundity in a Nearctic - Neotropical migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens). Data were collected from birds breeding at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA, where long-term trends toward warmer springs have been recorded. We found that black-throated blue warblers initiated breeding earlier in warmer springs, that early breeders were more likely to attempt a second brood than those starting later in the season, and that double brooding and lay date were linked to higher annual fecundity. Accordingly, we found selection favored earlier breeding in most years. However, in contrast to studies of several other long-distance migratory species in Europe, this selection pressure was not stronger in warmer springs, indicating that these warblers were able to adjust mean lay date appropriately to substantial inter-annual variation in spring temperature. Our results suggest that this North American migratory songbird might not experience the same fecundity declines as songbirds that are unable to adjust their timing of breeding in pace with spring temperatures.

Egg production in a coastal seabird, the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens), declines during the last century

Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens), a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y⁻¹ from 1902 (108 y), equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008–2010) 7 d later than in previous studies (1959–1986). This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50–100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas.

Phenological variation in annual timing of hibernation and breeding in nearby populations of Arctic ground squirrels

Ecologists need an empirical understanding of physiological and behavioural adjustments that animals can make in response to seasonal and long-term variations in environmental conditions. Because many species experience trade-offs between timing and duration of one seasonal event versus another and because interacting species may also shift phenologies at different rates, it is possible that, in aggregate, phenological shifts could result in mismatches that disrupt ecological communities. We investigated the timing of seasonal events over 14 years in two Arctic ground squirrel populations living 20 km apart in Northern Alaska. At Atigun River, snow melt occurred 27 days earlier and snow cover began 17 days later than at Toolik Lake. This spatial differential was reflected in significant variation in the timing of most seasonal events in ground squirrels living at the two sites. Although reproductive males ended seasonal torpor on the same date at both sites, Atigun males emerged from hibernation 9 days earlier and entered hibernation 5 days later than Toolik males. Atigun females emerged and bred 13 days earlier and entered hibernation 9 days earlier than those at Toolik. We propose that this variation in phenology over a small spatial scale is likely generated by plasticity of physiological mechanisms that may also provide individuals the ability to respond to variation in environmental conditions over time.