Latitudinal variation in breeding time reaction norms in a passerine bird

Endocrine flexibility can facilitate or constrain the ability to cope with global change

Global climate change has increased average environmental temperatures world-wide, simultaneously intensifying temperature variability and extremes. Growing numbers of studies have documented phenological, behavioural and morphological responses to climate change in wild populations. As systemic signals, hormones can contribute to orchestrating many of these phenotypic changes. Yet little is known about whether mechanisms like hormonal flexibility (reversible changes in hormone concentrations) facilitate or limit the ability of individuals, populations and species to cope with a changing climate. In this perspective, we discuss different mechanisms by which hormonal flexibility, primarily in glucocorticoids, could promote versus hinder evolutionary adaptation to changing temperature regimes. We focus on temperature because it is a key gradient influenced by climate change, it is easy to quantify, and its links to hormones are well established. We argue that reaction norm studies that connect individual responses to population-level and species-wide patterns will be critical for making progress in this field. We also develop a case study on urban heat islands, where several key questions regarding hormonal flexibility and adaptation to climate change can be addressed. Understanding the mechanisms that allow animals to cope when conditions become more challenging will help in predicting which populations are vulnerable to ongoing climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments'.

Does mast seeding shape mating time in wild boar? A comparative study

In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction often matches with the peak of food resources. One well-known effect of global warming is an earlier phenology of resources, leading to a possible mismatch between the timing of reproduction for consumers and food peak. However, global warming may also change the dynamics of food resources, such as the intensity and frequency of pulsed mast seeding. How quantitative changes in mast seeding influence the timing of reproduction of seed consumers remains unexplored. Here, we assess how yearly variation in mast seeding influences mating time in wild boar (Sus scrofa), a widespread seed consumer species. We took advantage of the intensive monitoring of both female reproduction (1636 females) and acorn production over 6 consecutive years across 15 populations of wild boar in the wild. We found that mating time occurs earlier when acorn production increases in most but not all populations. In two out of 15 populations, heavy females mated earlier than light ones. Our findings demonstrate that mast seeding advances the mating time in some populations, which could perhaps impact how boars respond to climate change.

Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change?

Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the 'evolutionary potential' of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change. Technological advances in sequencing and high-throughput genotyping have now made genomic studies possible in a wide range of species. Such studies, in theory, allow an unprecedented understanding of the genomics of ecologically relevant traits and thereby a detailed assessment of the population's evolutionary potential. Aimed at a wider audience than only evolutionary geneticists, this paper gives an overview of how gene-mapping studies have contributed to our understanding and prediction of evolutionary adaptations to climate change, identifies potential reasons why their contribution to understanding adaptation to climate change may remain limited, and highlights approaches to study and predict climate change adaptation that may be more promising, at least in the medium term.

Exploration of tissue-specific gene expression patterns underlying timing of breeding in contrasting temperature environments in a song bird

BACKGROUND

Seasonal timing of breeding is a life history trait with major fitness consequences but the genetic basis of the physiological mechanism underlying it, and how gene expression is affected by date and temperature, is not well known. In order to study this, we measured patterns of gene expression over different time points in three different tissues of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-liver axis, and investigated specifically how temperature affects this axis during breeding. We studied female great tits (Parus major) from lines artificially selected for early and late timing of breeding that were housed in two contrasting temperature environments in climate-controlled aviaries. We collected hypothalamus, liver and ovary samples at three different time points (before and after onset of egg-laying). For each tissue, we sequenced whole transcriptomes of 12 pools (n = 3 females) to analyse gene expression.

RESULTS

Birds from the selection lines differed in expression especially for one gene with clear reproductive functions, zona pellucida glycoprotein 4 (ZP4), which has also been shown to be under selection in these lines. Genes were differentially expressed at different time points in all tissues and most of the differentially expressed genes between the two temperature treatments were found in the liver. We identified a set of hub genes from all the tissues which showed high association to hormonal functions, suggesting that they have a core function in timing of breeding. We also found ample differentially expressed genes with largely unknown functions in birds.

CONCLUSIONS

We found differentially expressed genes associated with selection line and temperature treatment. Interestingly, the latter mainly in the liver suggesting that temperature effects on egg-laying date may happen down-stream in the physiological pathway. These findings, as well as our datasets, will further the knowledge of the mechanisms of tissue-specific avian seasonality in the future.

Environment-Dependent Genotype-Phenotype Associations in Avian Breeding Time

Understanding how genes shape phenotypes is essential to assess the evolutionary potential of a trait. Identifying the genes underlying quantitative behavioral or life-history traits has, however, proven to be a major challenge. The majority of these traits are phenotypically plastic and different parts of the genome can be involved in shaping the trait under different environmental conditions. These variable genotype-phenotype associations could be one explanation for the limited success of genome-wide association studies in such traits. We here use avian seasonal timing of breeding, a trait that is highly plastic in response to spring temperature, to explore effects of such genotype-by-environment interactions in genome-wide association studies. We genotyped 2045 great tit females for 384081 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and recorded their egg-laying dates in the wild. When testing for associations between SNPs and egg-laying dates, no SNP reached genome-wide significance. We then explored whether SNP effects were modified by annual spring temperature by formally testing for an interaction between SNP effect and temperature. The models including the SNP^∗temperature interaction performed consistently better although no SNP reached genome-wide significance. Our results suggest that the effects of genes shaping seasonal timing depended on annual spring temperature. Such environment-dependent effects are expected for any phenotypically plastic trait. Taking these effects into account will thus improve the success of detecting genes involved in phenotypically plastic traits, thereby leading to a better understanding of their evolutionary potential.

Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change

Most phenological traits are extremely sensitive to current climate change, and advances in the timing of important life-history events have been observed in many species. In birds, phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature is thought to be the main mechanism underlying yearly adjustment in the timing of breeding. However, other factors could be important and interact to affect the levels of plastic responses between and/or within-individuals. Here, we use long-term individual-based data on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to identify the spatial and environmental drivers affecting plasticity in laying date and to assess their importance at both population and individual levels. We found that laying date has advanced by 4.2 days over 10 years, and that it was mainly influenced by latitude and an interaction between spring temperature and breeder density. Analyses of individual plasticity showed that increases in temperature, but not in breeder density, resulted in within-individual advances in laying date. Our results suggest that females can adjust their laying date as a function of temperature, but that this adjustment will be partly constrained in habitats with lower breeder densities. Such potential constraint is especially worrying for the broad array of species already declining as a result of climate change.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.

Candidate gene-environment interactions and their relationships with timing of breeding in a wild bird population

Monitoring and predicting evolutionary changes underlying current environmental modifications are complex challenges. Recent approaches to achieve these objectives include assessing the genetic variation and effects of candidate genes on traits indicating adaptive potential. In birds, for example, short tandem repeat polymorphism at four candidate genes (CLOCK, NPAS2, ADCYAP1, and CREB1) has been linked to variation in phenological traits such as laying date and timing of migration. However, our understanding of their importance as evolutionary predictors is still limited, mainly because the extent of genotype–environment interactions (GxE) related to these genes has yet to be assessed. Here, we studied a population of Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) over 4 years in southern Québec (Canada) to assess the relationships between those four candidate genes and two phenological traits related to reproduction (laying date and incubation duration) and also determine the importance of GxE in this system. Our results showed that NPAS2 female genotypes were nonrandomly distributed across the study system and formed a longitudinal cline with longer genotypes located to the east. We observed relationships between length polymorphism at all candidate genes and laying date and/or incubation duration, and most of these relationships were affected by environmental variables (breeding density, latitude, or temperature). In particular, the positive relationships detected between laying date and both CLOCK and NPAS2 female genotypes were variable depending on breeding density. Our results suggest that all four candidate genes potentially affect timing of breeding in birds and that GxE are more prevalent and important than previously reported in this context.

Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes

There are multiple observations around the globe showing that in many avian species, both the timing of migration and breeding have advanced, due to warmer springs. Here, we review the literature to disentangle the actions of evolutionary changes in response to selection induced by climate change versus changes due to individual plasticity, that is, the capacity of an individual to adjust its phenology to environmental variables. Within the abundant literature on climate change effects on bird phenology, only a small fraction of studies are based on individual data, yet individual data are required to quantify the relative importance of plastic versus evolutionary responses. While plasticity seems common and often adaptive, no study so far has provided direct evidence for an evolutionary response of bird phenology to current climate change. This assessment leads us to notice the alarming lack of tests for microevolutionary changes in bird phenology in response to climate change, in contrast with the abundant claims on this issue. In short, at present we cannot draw reliable conclusions on the processes underlying the observed patterns of advanced phenology in birds. Rapid improvements in techniques for gathering and analysing individual data offer exciting possibilities that should encourage research activity to fill this knowledge gap.

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales

Climate change-induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17-year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally-derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years – a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader-scale predictive models of future phenological shifts.

Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.