Seasonal life-history models for the integrated management of the invasive weed nodding thistle Carduus nutans in Australia

Weighing the unknowns: Value of Information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management

The management of biological invasions is a worldwide conservation priority. Unfortunately, decision-making on optimal invasion management can be impeded by lack of information about the biological processes that determine invader success (i.e. biological uncertainty) or by uncertainty about the effectiveness of candidate interventions (i.e. operational uncertainty). Concurrent assessment of both sources of uncertainty within the same framework can help to optimize control decisions.Here, we present a Value of Information (VoI) framework to simultaneously analyse the effects of biological and operational uncertainties on management outcomes. We demonstrate this approach with a case study: minimizing the long-term population growth of musk thistle Carduus nutans, a widespread invasive plant, using several insects as biological control agents, including Trichosirocalus horridus, Rhinocyllus conicus and Urophora solstitialis.The ranking of biocontrol agents was sensitive to differences in the target weed's demography and also to differences in the effectiveness of the different biocontrol agents. This finding suggests that accounting for both biological and operational uncertainties is valuable when making management recommendations for invasion control. Furthermore, our VoI analyses show that reduction of all uncertainties across all combinations of demographic model and biocontrol effectiveness explored in the current study would lead, on average, to a 15.6% reduction in musk thistle population growth rate. The specific growth reduction that would be observed in any instance would depend on how the uncertainties actually resolve. Resolving biological uncertainty (across demographic model combinations) or operational uncertainty (across biocontrol effectiveness combinations) alone would reduce expected population growth rate by 8.5% and 10.5% respectively.Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates that intervention rank is determined both by biological processes in the targeted invasive populations and by intervention effectiveness. Ignoring either biological uncertainty or operational uncertainty may result in a suboptimal recommendation. Therefore, it is important to simultaneously acknowledge both sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process in invasion management. The framework presented here can accommodate diverse data sources and modelling approaches, and has wide applicability to guide invasive species management and conservation efforts.

Modeling the combined impacts of host plant resistance and biological control on the population dynamics of a major pest of wheat

BACKGROUND

Single-tool approaches often fail to provide effective long-term suppression of pest populations, such that combining several tools into an integrated management strategy is critical. Yet studies that harness the power of population models to explore the relative efficacy of various management tools and their combinations remain rare. We constructed a Leslie matrix population model to evaluate the potential of crop resistance, acting alone or in combination with biological control, to reduce populations of the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton, a major pest of wheat in North America.

RESULTS

Our model projections indicated that crop resistance reduced, but did not stop, C. cinctus population growth, suggesting that implementing multiple management tools will be necessary for longer term control of this pest. The levels of parasitism needed to curtail population growth were much lower in model projections for resistant solid-stemmed compared with susceptible hollow-stemmed cultivars (22% versus 86%). Furthermore, even when accounting for the reduced levels of parasitism observed in resistant cultivars, projected population growth rates for C. cinctus were always lower in resistant compared with susceptible wheat cultivars.

CONCLUSION

Despite some empirical evidence for antagonistic interactions between resistance and biological control, our models suggest that combining these two approaches will always reduce population growth rates to lower levels than implementing either strategy alone. More work focused on integrating biological control into crop resistance breeding programs, and determining how these approaches affect performance of limiting life stages, will be important to optimize sustainable approaches to integrated pest management in this system and more broadly. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrating multiple disturbance aspects: management of an invasive thistle, Carduus nutans

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Disturbances occur in most ecological systems, and play an important role in biological invasions. We delimit five key disturbance aspects: intensity, frequency, timing, duration and extent. Few studies address more than one of these aspects, yet interactions and interdependence between aspects may lead to complex outcomes.

METHODS

In a two-cohort experimental study, we examined how multiple aspects (intensity, frequency and timing) of a mowing disturbance regime affect the survival, phenology, growth and reproduction of an invasive thistle Carduus nutans (musk thistle).

KEY RESULTS

Our results show that high intensity and late timing strongly delay flowering phenology and reduce plant survival, capitulum production and plant height. A significant interaction between intensity and timing further magnifies the main effects. Unexpectedly, high frequency alone did not effectively reduce reproduction. However, a study examining only frequency and intensity, and not timing, would have erroneously attributed the importance of timing to frequency.

CONCLUSIONS

We used management of an invasive species as an example to demonstrate the importance of a multiple-aspect disturbance framework. Failure to consider possible interactions, and the inherent interdependence of certain aspects, could result in misinterpretation and inappropriate management efforts. This framework can be broadly applied to improve our understanding of disturbance effects on individual responses, population dynamics and community composition.

Estimating development rate and thermal requirements of Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) reared on potato and tomato by using linear and nonlinear models

The temperature-dependent development of tomato psyllid (also called potato psyllid), Bactericera cockerelli (Sulc), was studied in the laboratory at seven constant temperatures (8, 10, 15, 20, 23, 27, and 31°C), 50-60% RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h on leaves of whole potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plants. Developmental time in days for immature stages and total development (egg to adult) on both host species were inversely proportional to temperature between 8 and 27°C but increased at 31°C. One linear and two nonlinear models were fitted to the data. The lower developmental thresholds, calculated using the linear model for egg, total nymph, and total development (from oviposition to adult emergence) were 7.9, 4.2, and 7.1°C (reared on potato) and 7.2, 5.3, and 7.5°C (reared on tomato), respectively. The thermal constant (K) for total development was 358 (reared on potato), and 368 (reared on tomato) degree-days (DD). Two nonlinear models, Briere and Lactin, fit the data well as measured by goodness-of-fit criteria, the residual sum of square (RSS) and Akaike information criterion (AIC). Temperature threshold parameters for these nonlinear models (T(0), T(opt), and T(max)) were estimated for eggs, total nymphal stages, and total development time (egg to adult). The Briere model is highly recommended for the description of temperature-dependent development of tomato psyllid. Results from this study will provide basic information on the biology of tomato psyllid and have potential for the development of predictive models of the seasonal progress of this invasive pest.

Maternal warming affects early life stages of an invasive thistle

Maternal environment can influence plant offspring performance. Understanding maternal environmental effects will help to bridge a key gap in the knowledge of plant life cycles, and provide important insights for species' responses under climate change. Here we show that maternal warming significantly affected the early life stages of an invasive thistle, Carduus nutans. Seeds produced by plants grown in warmed conditions had higher germination percentages and shorter mean germination times than those produced by plants under ambient conditions; this difference was most evident at suboptimal germination temperatures. Subsequent seedling emergence was also faster with maternal warming, with no cost to seedling emergence percentage and seedling growth. Our results suggest that maternal warming may accelerate the life cycle of this species via enhanced early life-history stages. These maternal effects on offspring performance, together with the positive responses of the maternal generation, may exacerbate invasions of this species under climate change.

Decreased structural defence of an invasive thistle under warming

Plant structural defences play a key role in preventing fitness loss due to herbivory. However, how structural defences are affected by potential climate change is rarely examined. We examined how leaf morphological traits that relate to the structural defence of an invasive thistle, Carduus nutans, change in a warmer climate. We manipulated warming using open-top chambers (OTCs) and examined the morphology of leaves at three different positions (the 5th, 10th and 15th leaves, counted from the top of the plant) in two destructive summer censuses. We found that structural defence traits were different under ambient versus warmed conditions. Prickle densities (both the number of prickles per leaf area and the number of prickles per leaf mass) were significantly lower in plants grown in a warmer climate. Our results suggest that plant structural defences may be reduced under warming, and therefore should be considered when examining species' responses to climate change.

Periodic rest from grazing provided no control of an invasive perennial forb

This study examined if one grazing strategy (namely seasonal rest) was effective in the control of the invasive forb Phyla canescens (Kunth) Greene (hereafter lippia). We examined if rest from grazing could increase the competitiveness of native palatable species by allowing time to recover from defoliation, thereby altering competitive interactions between native species and lippia. In a field trial, we manipulated cattle grazing to determine its effects on the biomass of lippia and native species. We compared rest from grazing at different times of the year with year-long grazing (low intensity continuous and high intensity short duration) and no grazing (permanently excluding large grazing animals). Experimental plots were stratified into different hydrological areas (approximately annual flooding and flooded less than once every 5 years) to include flood dynamics in the management scenarios. We detected no negative impacts of seasonal rest on lippia, but some positive effects on native species. We found that complete exclusion from grazing in areas that already have substantial lippia invasion (and no flooding) may actually favour the expansion of lippia (at certain times). This study does not suggest that grazing management cannot be used as a tool for lippia control – simply that seasonal resting had no effect over a 3-year period. This is likely due to the dynamics of a boom-and-bust landscape in which if the abiotic conditions are not suitable for growth, then native species will not grow whether grazed or rested.

Optimal management strategies to control local population growth or population spread may not be the same

The objective of most pest management programs is to "control" the pest species. However, optimal control of local abundance and population growth may require different management strategies than optimal control of spatial spread. We use coupled demographic-dispersal models to address the relative importance of different management approaches to these two main control objectives for the invasive thistle Carduus nutans. The models are parameterized with data from thistle populations in the native (France) and invaded ranges (Australia and New Zealand). We assess a wide range of commonly used management strategies for their absolute and relative impacts on population growth and spread in both invaded-range scenarios. The projected population growth rate in New Zealand is more than twice that in Australia, while the spread rate is more than four times the Australian value. In general, spread and growth are both most strongly affected by the same life cycle transitions; however, in a few cases certain vital rates disproportionately affect either spread or growth. The transition that represents the contribution of large rosettes in one year to the number of large rosettes in the following year (the large rosette-large rosette transition) in Australia is dominated by reproduction (rather than survival) and hence is relatively more important to spread than to population growth. In New Zealand, the small rosette-small rosette transition is also predominantly dispersal-related. However, establishment of small plants from the seed bank contributes more to population growth than spread, as no dispersal is involved. The fine-resolution vital-rate-based modeling approach allows us to identify potentially novel optimal management strategies: approaches that reduce microsite availability show promise for reducing both population growth and spread, while strategies that affect dispersal parameters will affect spread. Additionally, the relative ranking of some biocontrol agents shifts depending on whether control of population growth or population spread is the desired outcome and therefore could alter which of the agents are preferred for release in a new area. The possibility of differences in ranked agent effectiveness has been predicted theoretically, but never before demonstrated using field data.

Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density-impact curve

Economic impacts of invasive species worldwide are substantial. Management strategies have been incorporated in population models to assess the effectiveness of management for reducing density, with the implicit assumption that economic impact of the invasive species will also decline. The optimal management effort, however, is that which minimizes the sum of both the management and impact costs. The relationship between population density and economic impact (what we call the "density-impact curve") is rarely examined in a management context and could take several nonlinear forms. Here we determine the effects of population dynamics and density-impact curves of different shapes on optimal management effort and discover cases where management is either highly effective or a waste of resources. When an inaccurate density-impact curve is used, the increase in total costs due to over- or underinvestment in management can be large. We calculate the increase in total costs incurred if the density-impact curve is incorrect and find that the greater the maximum impact caused by an invasive species, the more important it is not only to reduce its density, but also to know the shape of the density-impact relationship accurately. Lack of information regarding the relationship between density and economic impact causes the most acute problems for invaders that cause high impact at low density, where management typically will be too little, too late. For species that are only problematic at high density, ignorance of the density-impact curve can lead to overinvestment in management with little reduction in impact.

Dispersal Patterns, Dispersal Mechanisms, and Invasion Wave Speeds for Invasive Thistles

Understanding and predicting population spread rates is an important problem in basic and applied ecology. In this article, we link estimates of invasion wave speeds to species traits and environmental conditions. We present detailed field studies of wind dispersal and compare nonparametric (i.e., data-based) and mechanistic (fluid dynamics model-based) dispersal kernel and spread rate estimates for two important invasive weeds, Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides. A high-effort trapping design revealed highly leptokurtic dispersal distributions, with seeds caught up to 96 m from the source, far further than mean dispersal distances (approx. 2 m). Nonparametric wave speed estimates are highly sensitive to sampling effort. Mechanistic estimates are insensitive to sampling because they are obtained from independent data and more useful because they are based on the dispersal mechanism. Over a wide range of realistic conditions, mechanistic spread rate estimates were most sensitive to high winds and low seed settling velocities. The combination of integrodifference equations and mechanistic dispersal models is a powerful tool for estimating invasion spread rates and for linking these estimates to characteristics of the species and the environment.