The impact of antiretroviral treatment on mortality trends of HIV-positive adults in rural Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study, 1999-2009

Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019

BACKGROUND

There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda.

METHODOLOGY

Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15-60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33-5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61-12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89-3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999-2004 and 2015-2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males.

Thirty years of change in HIV incidence among adults in the Kyamulibwa General Population Cohort in rural southwest Uganda, 1989-2021

OBJECTIVES

To document the changes in HIV incidence over thirty years in Kalungu district, Uganda.

METHODS

Since 1989, residents aged ≥15 years old have been tested for HIV, and data were collected on HIV risk factors annually and later, biennially in the Kyamulibwa open cohort. In the 2019-2021 survey, people living with HIV self-reported on knowledge of their HIV status, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, and their most recent viral load data were obtained from health facilities. The HIV seroconversion dates were randomly imputed between the last negative and first positive test dates using a uniform distribution.

RESULTS

Among 20,959 residents who were HIV-negative, 669 seroconverted within 176,659 person-years. Data showed a downward trend in age-adjusted HIV incidence over 30 years (P <0.001) even though HIV prevalence steadily increased with ART availability from 2004. Comparing 1990-1992 and 1996-1998, HIV incidence declined by 43% (0.79 to 0.45/100 person-years, P = 0.002). Between 1999 and 2011, the incidence remained stable at 0.49/100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.58) in men but slowly increased in women (average age-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.13 per 3 years, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.24; trend P-value = 0.02). After 2011, however, the incidence trends reversed and continued to decline in men and women and in all age groups.

CONCLUSION

Facilitating HIV testing and timely ART initiation, and supporting ART adherence must be emphasized alongside sustainable prevention measures.

Unintended pregnancies among HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review protocol

BACKGROUND

Unintended pregnancies pose a severe threat to the well-being of HIV-positive women and their unborn children. Factors contributing to the high incidence of unintended pregnancies include contraceptive failure, low uptake of contraceptives, and misuse of contraceptives. Despite various contraceptive options, an increased incidence of unintended pregnancies is rampant among HIV-positive women in the region of sub-Saharan Africa. This study seeks to present evidence of unintended pregnancies among women living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, including those using contraceptives.

METHOD

This study entails a scoping review to survey and interrogate the literature to provide evidence for the incidence of unintended pregnancies among HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa. A proposed framework by Arksey and O'Malley will guide this scoping review. Peer-reviewed articles which address the research questions will constitute the main search. Electronic databases such as EBSCOhost, Cochrane Library, World of Science, World Health Organization (WHO) library databases, Science Direct, Google Scholar PubMed, and gray literature search will be involved. Reference list from studies included will also be searched. The investigation of articles will be done employing keywords from the studies included. The inclusion and exclusion criteria will guide two separate reviewers with the screening of abstracts and full papers. To summarize the findings from this review, thematic content analysis will be done using NVivo version 11.

DISCUSSION

We expect that this review will add to the current body of knowledge on the incidence of unintended pregnancies among HIV-positive women, identify gaps for further future research, and show evidence that may contribute to strengthening the health system's regulations, guidelines, and policies that may help prevent unintended pregnancies among HIV-positive women.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

10.17605/OSF.IO/EY3R5.

HIV, tuberculosis, diabetes mellitus and hypertension admissions and premature mortality among adults in Uganda from 2011 to 2019: is the tide turning?

BACKGROUND

The growing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) on the background of endemic Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) is a concern in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to describe annual trends in admissions, mortality rates and premature mortality (years of potential life lost-YPLLs) due to HIV, tuberculosis (TB), diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) in Uganda.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, retrieving electronic records of adults admitted to Mulago and Kiruddu national referral hospitals medical wards between 1st January 2011 and 31st December 2019. We used STATA BE 17.0 and GraphPad Prism 8.0.2 to compute total admissions, inpatient crude mortality rates, and YPLLs; and demonstrate trends using Mann-Kendall test.

RESULTS

Of 108,357 admissions, 55,620 (51.3%) were female, 15,300 (14.1%) were recorded in 2012, and 22,997 (21.2%) were aged 21-30 years. HIV, TB, DM and HTN accounted for 26,021 (24.0%); 9537 (8.8%); 13,708 (12.7) and 13,252 (12.2%) of all admissions, respectively. Overall inpatient mortality was 16.7% (18,099/108,357), 53.5% (9674/18,099) were male, 21.5% (3898) were aged 31-40 years and 2597 (14.4%) were registered in 2013. HIV, TB, DM and HTN accounted for 35.6% (6444), 14.6% (2646), 9.1% (1648) and 11.8% (2142) of all deaths, respectively. Total admissions (Kendall's tau-B = - 0.833, p < 0.001) and deaths declined (Kendall's tau-B = - 0.611, p = 0.029). A total of 355,514 (mean = 20.8 years, SD 30.0) YPLLs were recorded, of which 54.6% (191,869) were in males; 36.2% (128,755) were among those aged 21-30 years and were recorded in 2012 (54,717; 15.4%). HIV, TB, DM and HTN accounted for 46.5% (165,352); 19.5% (69,347); 4.8% (16,991) and 4.5% (16,167) of YPLLs, respectively. Proportionate contribution of HIV to deaths and YPLLs declined, remained stagnant for TB; and increased for both DM and HTN.

CONCLUSION

TB and HIV account for higher though declining, while DM and HTN account for lower albeit rising morbidity and premature mortality among adult medical patients in Uganda. TB prevention and treatment; and DM/HTN service integration in HIV care should be optimized and scaled up.

Awareness and willingness to use HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis among people who inject drugs in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A cross-sectional survey

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk of HIV infection. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could help in HIV prevention among PWIDs. However, little is known about PrEP use among PWIDs in low and middle-income countries. This study reports the awareness of and willingness to use PrEP and the associated factors among PWID in Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit PWIDs in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Chi-square statistical test was used during data analysis. The P-value of < 0.05 was used to ascertain the statistically significant relationship. IBM SPSS Statistics 25.0 was used to analyze the data. The analysis consisted of 260 PWIDs. The mean age of the respondents was 39.0 years with a standard deviation (SD) of ±7.5. Most of the respondents were male (n = 232, 89.2%) with primary education (n = 176, 67.7%). Despite the low awareness of PrEP (n = 42, 165.28%) in the study sample, the majority (n = 239, 91.9%) were willing to use PrEP. Both awareness of and willingness to use PrEP were associated with gender (p = .002 and p = < .001), awareness of HIV prevention programs(p = < .001 and p = .006), selling sex (p = .010 and p = .021), and frequency of condomless sexual intercourse (p = .029 and p = .025) respectively. In multivariable logistic regression, only gender(p = 0.046) was related to awareness of PrEP while awareness of HIV prevention programs (p = 0.009), the risk level of HIV infection(p = < .001), number of sexual partners(p = 0.046), and frequency of condomless sex(p = 0.032) were associated with willingness to use PrEP. Other factors were not statistically significant. Despite low awareness, PWIDs are highly willing to use PrEP. Future research should assess the acceptability of injectable PrEP for PWID, as their acquaintance with injection may make the formulation more practical.

A Real-World Evidence-Based Management of HIV by Differential Duration HAART Treatment and its Association with Incidence of Oral Lesions

Background

The efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) can be estimated by the immunological response and the incidence of opportunistic infections.

Objective

This study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of different durations of HAART in terms of immunological response markers (CD4 count and CD4/CD8 ratio) along with disease progression markers (incidence of oral lesions) in Chinese patients with HIV.

Methods

This single-center, retrospective, and real-world study included patients with HIV, grouped into a treatment group and treatment-naïve group, of which the former was further divided into 6, 12, and 18 months based on the treatment duration. The CD4 and CD8 cell counts were analyzed by the FACSCalibur flow cytometry. Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to determine the outcome of different duration of HAART. Oral examination was carried out according to the WHO type IV examination.

Results

In 246 patients with HIV, CD4 counts increased significantly post-HAART compared to pre-HAART in all three treatment groups (P<.001), while CD8 count decreased significantly (P<.05) in all three treated groups. A significant association of HAART with the CD4/CD8 ratio was observed (P<.001). A significant increase in CD4 count was observed between 12-months and 18-months treatment groups (P<.05). The occurrence of oral lesions reduced significantly in the treatment group.

Conclusion

We observed a better response to the HAART regimen with 18-months of duration than 12-months and 6-months therapies and reduction in oral lesions.

Modeling the Effect of HIV/AIDS Stigma on HIV Infection Dynamics in Kenya

Stigma toward people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) has impeded the response to the disease across the world. Widespread stigma leads to poor adherence of preventative measures while also causing PLWHA to avoid testing and care, delaying important treatment. Stigma is clearly a hugely complex construct. However, it can be broken down into components which include internalized stigma (how people with the trait feel about themselves) and enacted stigma (how a community reacts to an individual with the trait). Levels of HIV/AIDS-related stigma are particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa, which contributed to a surge in cases in Kenya during the late twentieth century. Since the early twenty-first century, the United Nations and governments around the world have worked to eliminate stigma from society and resulting public health education campaigns have improved the perception of PLWHA over time, but HIV/AIDS remains a significant problem, particularly in Kenya. We take a data-driven approach to create a time-dependent stigma function that captures both the level of internalized and enacted stigma in the population. We embed this within a compartmental model for HIV dynamics. Since 2000, the population in Kenya has been growing almost exponentially and so we rescale our model system to create a coupled system for HIV prevalence and fraction of individuals that are infected that seek treatment. This allows us to estimate model parameters from published data. We use the model to explore a range of scenarios in which either internalized or enacted stigma levels vary from those predicted by the data. This analysis allows us to understand the potential impact of different public health interventions on key HIV metrics such as prevalence and disease-related death and to see how close Kenya will get to achieving UN goals for these HIV and stigma metrics by 2030.

Comparison of different cardiovascular risk tools used in HIV patient cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa; do we need to include laboratory tests?

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally, representing 31% of all global deaths. HIV and long term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are risk factors for development of CVD in populations of people living with HIV (PLHIV). CVD risk assessment tools are currently being applied to SSA populations, but there are questions about accuracy as well as implementation challenges of these tools in lower resource setting populations. We aimed to assess the level of agreement between the various cardiovascular screening tools (Data collection on Adverse effects of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D), Framingham risk score, WHO risk score and The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score) when applied to an HIV ART experienced population in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

This study was undertaken in an Anti-Retroviral Long Term (ALT) Cohort of 1000 PLHIV in care who have been on ART for at least 10 years in urban Uganda. A systematic review was undertaken to find the most frequently used screening tools from SSA PLHIV populations; these were applied to the ALT cohort. Levels of agreement between the resulting scores (those including lipids and non-lipids based, as well as HIV-specific and non-HIV specific) as applied to our cohort were compared. Prevalence Bias Adjusted Kappa was used to evaluate agreement between tools.

Results

Overall, PLHIV in ALT cohort had a median score of 1.1–1.4% risk of a CVD event over 5 years and 1.7–2.5% risk of a CVD event over 10 years. There was no statistical difference in the risk scores obtained for this population when comparing the different tools, including comparisons of those with lipids and non-lipids, and HIV specific vs non-HIV specific.

Conclusion

The various tools yielded similar results, but those not including lipids are more feasible to apply in our setting. Long-term cohorts of PLHIV in SSA should in future provide longitudinal data to evaluate existing CVD risk prediction tools for these populations. Inclusion of HIV and ART history factors to existing scoring systems may improve accuracy without adding the expense and technical difficulty of lipid testing.

Mortality trends and causes of death among HIV positive patients at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe

Background

We report trends in mortality patterns and causes among HIV positive patients, who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART), at an urban clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in which routinely collected data for patients enrolled and followed up between February 2004 and December 2017 were assessed. Patients follow up was from the day of the treatment initiation until exit by death, transfer out or loss to follow up. Two doctors categorized causes of death (COD) as tuberculosis (TB), communicable AIDS, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malignancies, others and unknown. We used competing risk survival analysis, first to estimate all-causes and cause-specific mortality rates over time, and then to assess risk factors of different causes of death.

Results

A total of 4 868 patients were followed up for 27 527 person years (PY). Among the 506 patients who died, COD was unknown for 76 patients (15%) and common COD were TB (n = 71, 14%), Malignancies (n = 54, 10.7%) Meningitis (n = 39, 7.7%) and NCDs (n = 60, 11.9%). 49.4% of the deaths were within the first year of starting ART. Median age at death was 36 years (IQR:19–46). There was a near threefold increase in proportion of deaths due to NCDs and malignancies over the period of follow up. Low baseline CD4 cell count and WHO stages 3 & 4 were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

TB remains the leading cause of death among HIV infected people. Deaths due to NCDs and malignancies increased over time. ART facilities need to incorporate management of NCDs including cancer as part of comprehensive care of PLHIV to reduce mortality.

Liver Fibrosis Assessment in a Cohort of Greek HIV Mono-Infected Patients by Non-Invasive Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) is common in HIV-infected individuals. Liver biopsy remains the gold-standard procedure for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis, but both Transient Elastography (TE) and Non-invasive Biomarkers (NIBMs) have emerged as alternatives.

OBJECTIVES

Our study's aim was to validate commonly used NIBMs for the assessment of liver fibrosis in a cohort of Greek HIV-mono-infected patients.

METHODS

Inclusion criteria were confirmed HIV-infection and age>18 years and exclusion criteria HBV or HCV seropositivity, liver disease other than NAFLD, alcohol abuse, ascites, transaminases levels>4xULN(upper limit of normal) and Body-Mass index(BMI)>40. Liver stiffness (LS) measurement with TE and thorough laboratory work up and medical history were acquired at study entry. FIB-4, APRI, NFS, BARD, Forns and Lok scores were calculated for each patient.

RESULTS

A total of 157 patients were eligible for this study. Significant liver fibrosis, compatible with Metavir score of F3-F4, was found in only 11(7%) patients. These findings were in accordance with those of the NIBMs; the BARD score constituting the only exception, allocating 102(65%) patients as having significant liver fibrosis. In order to obtain a balance between sensitivity and specificity new cut-offs for each NIBM were calculated; FIB-4 score yielded the best results, since by changing the cut-off to 1.49 a sensitivity and specificity balanced for both close to 85% was achieved.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that NIBMs can be used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis in HIV mono-infected patients. New cut-offs for NIBMs should probably be calculated, to help distinguishing patients with significant from those with mild/no fibrosis.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Decreased HIV-associated mortality rates during scale-up of antiretroviral therapy, 2011-2016

OBJECTIVE

HIV-associated mortality rates in Africa decreased by 10-20% annually in 2003-2011, after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to document HIV-associated mortality rates in the general population in Kenya after 2011 in an era of expanded access to ART.

DESIGN

We obtained data on mortality rates and migration from a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Gem, western Kenya, and data for HDSS residents aged 15-64 years from home-based HIV counseling and testing (HBCT) rounds in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016.

METHODS

Mortality trends were determined among a closed cohort of residents who participated in at least the 2011 round of HBCT.

RESULTS

Of 32 467 eligible HDSS residents, 22 688 (70%) participated in the 2011 round and comprised the study cohort. All-cause mortality rates declined from 10.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4-11.7] per 1000 in 2011 to 7.4 (95% CI 5·7-9·0) in 2016, whereas the mortality rate was stable among HIV-uninfected residents, at 5.7 per 1000 person-years. Among HIV-infected residents, mortality rates declined from 30.5 per 1000 in 2011 to 15.9 per 1000 in 2016 (average decline 6% per year). The HIV-infected group receiving ART had higher mortality rates than the HIV-uninfected group [adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.8, 95% CI 2.2-3.4], as did the HIV-infected group who did not receive ART (aRR 5.3, 95% CI 4.5-6.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates among HIV-infected individuals declined substantially during ART expansion between 2011 and 2016, though less than during early ART introduction. Mortality trends among HIV-infected populations are critical to understanding epidemic dynamics.

Facing HIV infection and unintended pregnancy: Rakai, Uganda, 2001-2013

Background

Unintended pregnancy is a persistent and global issue with consequences for the health and well-being of mothers and babies. The aim of this paper is to examine unintended pregnancy over time in the context of substantial human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and increasing access to anti-retro viral therapy (ART).

Method

Data are from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) – a cohort of communities with 10,000–12,000 adults, ages 15–49, in Rakai District, Uganda. We examined prevalence of current pregnancies over time, intended pregnancy, and unintended pregnancies (unwanted, mistimed, ambivalent). We then examined risk factors for the different categories of unintended pregnancy among women who were currently pregnant. The full sample included 32,205 observations over 13 years.

Results

The prevalence of mistimed pregnancy and unwanted pregnancy both decreased significantly over time (p < .001). The prevalence of current pregnancies and intended pregnancy showed no significant changes over the thirteen year period. The same overall pattern was found when only examining HIV positive women in the sample; however, the trends were not significant. Out of the 2820 current pregnancies reported, 54.4% were intended, 29.8% were mistimed, 13.2% were unwanted, and 2.5% were ambivalent. After controlling for other predictors, HIV status had no independent effect on mistimed pregnancy but had a significant effect on unwanted pregnancy (RRR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.65–3.61, p < .001] and ambivalent pregnancy [RRR = 2.07; CI: 1.03 to 4.18, p = 0.041]. In 2004, after the introduction of ART, there was a decreased risk in unintended pregnancy [RR = 0.75; CI: 0.66 to 0.84, p < .001]. Women with a secondary education or higher also had a decreased risk in unintended pregnancy [RR = 0.70; CI: 0.70 to 0.92, p = 0.002].

Discussion

HIV was an important predictor of unwanted pregnancy. Unintended pregnancy decreased in the sample over time which may be due to an increase in ART availability and rising levels of education.

The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA): Data on mortality, by HIV status and stage on the HIV care continuum, among the general population in seven longitudinal studies between 1989 and 2014

Timely progression of people living with HIV (PLHIV) from the point of infection through the pathway from diagnosis to treatment is important in ensuring effective care and treatment of HIV and preventing HIV-related deaths and onwards transmission of infection.  Reliable, population-based estimates of new infections are difficult to obtain for the generalised epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.  Mortality data indicate disease burden and, if disaggregated along the continuum from diagnosis to treatment, can also reflect the coverage and quality of different HIV services.  Neither routine statistics nor observational clinical studies can estimate mortality prior to linkage to care nor following disengagement from care.  For this, population-based data are required. The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa brings together studies in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.  Eight studies have the necessary data to estimate mortality by HIV status, and seven can estimate mortality at different stages of the HIV care continuum.  This data note describes a harmonised dataset containing anonymised individual-level information on survival by HIV status for adults aged 15 and above. Among PLHIV, the dataset provides information on survival during different periods: prior to diagnosis of infection; following diagnosis but before linkage to care; in pre-antiretroviral treatment (ART) care; in the first six months after ART initiation; among people continuously on ART for 6+ months; and among people who have ever interrupted ART.

The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence from health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) has shown that increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reducing mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, due to limited vital statistics registration in many of the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, there is limited evidence of the magnitude of ART’s effect outside of specific HDSS sites. This paper leverages longitudinal household/family roster data from the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health (MLSFH) to estimate the effect of ART availability in public clinics on population-level mortality based on a geographically dispersed sample of individuals in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE

We seek to provide evidence on the population-level magnitude of the ART-associated mortality decline in rural Malawi and confirm that this population is experiencing similar declines in mortality as those seen in HDSS sites.

METHODS

We analyze longitudinal household/family-roster data from four waves of the MLSFH to estimate mortality change after the introduction of ART to study areas. We analyze life expectancy using the Kaplan–Meier estimator and examine how the mortality hazard changed over time by individual characteristics with Cox regression.

RESULTS

In the four years following rollout of ART, life expectancy at age 15 increased by 3.1 years (95% CI 1.1, 5.1), and median length of life rose by over ten years.

CONTRIBUTION

Our observations show that the increased availability of ART resulted in a substantial and sustained reversal of mortality trends in SSA and assuage concerns that the post-ART reversals in mortality are not occurring at the same magnitude outside of specific HDSSs.

Topical gentian violet compared with nystatin oral suspension for the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis in HIV-1-infected participants

OBJECTIVE

Compare the safety and efficacy of topical gentian violet with that of nystatin oral suspension (NYS) for the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis in HIV-1-infected adults in resource-limited settings.

DESIGN

Multicenter, open-label, evaluator-blinded, randomized clinical trial at eight international sites, within the AIDS Clinical Trials Group.

STUDY PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION

Adult HIV-infected participants with oropharyngeal candidiasis, stratified by CD4 cell counts and antiretroviral therapy status at study entry, were randomized to receive either gentian violet (0.00165%, BID) or NYS (500 000 units, QID) for 14 days.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Cure or improvement after 14 days of treatment. Signs and symptoms of oropharyngeal candidiasis were evaluated in an evaluator-blinded manner.

RESULTS

The study was closed early per Data Safety Monitoring Board after enrolling 221 participants (target = 494). Among the 182 participants eligible for efficacy analysis, 63 (68.5%) in the gentian violet arm had cure or improvement of oropharyngeal candidiasis versus 61 (67.8%) in the NYS arm, resulting in a nonsizable difference of 0.007 (95% confidence interval: -0.129, 0.143). There was no sizable difference in cure rates between the two arms (-0.0007; 95% confidence interval: -0.146, 0.131). No gentian violet-related adverse events were noted. No sizable differences were identified in tolerance, adherence, quality of life, or acceptability of study drugs. In gentian violet arm, 61 and 39% of participants reported 'no' and 'mild-to-moderate' staining, respectively. Cost for medication procurement was significantly lower for gentian violet versus NYS (median $2.51 and 19.42, respectively, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Efficacy of gentian violet was not statistically different than NYS, was well tolerated, and its procurement cost was substantially less than NYS.

Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis

Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries.

Methods

We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects.

Results

Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates.

Conclusion

This econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data.

Management of severe non-TB bacterial infection in HIV-infected adults

Despite widespread antiretroviral therapy use, severe bacterial infections (SBI) in HIV-infected adults continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality globally. Four main pathogens account for the majority of documented SBI: Streptococcus pneumoniae, non-typhoidal strains of Salmonella enterica, Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. The epidemiology of SBI is dynamic, both in developing countries where, despite dramatic successes in antiretroviral therapy, coverage is far from complete, and in settings in both resource-poor and resource-rich countries where antiretroviral therapy failure is becoming increasingly common. Throughout the world, this complexity is further compounded by rapidly emerging antimicrobial resistance, making management of SBI very challenging in these vulnerable patients. We review the causes and treatment of SBI in HIV-infected people and discuss future developments in this field.

Measuring the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Roll-Out on Population Level Fertility in Three African Countries

Background

UNAIDS official estimates of national HIV prevalence are based on trends observed in antenatal clinic surveillance, after adjustment for the reduced fertility of HIV positive women. Uptake of ART may impact on the fertility of HIV positive women, implying a need to re-estimate the adjustment factors used in these calculations. We analyse the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level fertility in Southern and East Africa, comparing trends in HIV infected women against the secular trends observed in uninfected women.

Methods

We used fertility data from four community-based demographic and HIV surveillance sites: Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka and Rakai (Uganda) and uMkhanyakude (South Africa). All births to women aged 15–44 years old were included in the analysis, classified by mother’s age and HIV status at time of birth, and ART availability in the community. Calendar time period of data availability relative to ART Introduction varied across the sites, from 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 9 years after. Calendar time was classified according to ART availability, grouped into pre ART, ART introduction (available in at least one health facility serving study site) and ART available (available in all designated health facilities serving study site). We used Poisson regression to calculate age adjusted fertility rate ratios over time by HIV status, and investigated the interaction between ART period and HIV status to ascertain whether trends over time were different for HIV positive and negative women.

Results

Age-adjusted fertility rates declined significantly over time for HIV negative women in all four studies. However HIV positives either had no change in fertility (Masaka, Rakai) or experienced a significant increase over the same period (Kisesa, uMkhanyakude). HIV positive fertility was significantly lower than negative in both the pre ART period (age adjusted fertility rate ratio (FRR) range 0.51 95%CI 0.42–0.61 to 0.73 95%CI 0.64–0.83) and when ART was widely available (FRR range 0.57 95%CI 0.52–0.62 to 0.83 95%CI 0.78–0.87), but the difference has narrowed. The interaction terms describing the difference in trends between HIV positives and negatives are generally significant.

Conclusions

Differences in fertility between HIV positive and HIV negative women are narrowing over time as ART becomes more widely available in these communities. Routine adjustment of ANC data for estimating national HIV prevalence will need to allow for the impact of treatment.

Adult life expectancy trends in the era of antiretroviral treatment in rural Uganda (1991-2012)

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-wide adult life expectancy.

STUDY DESIGN

A population-based open cohort study with repeated HIV status measurements and registration of vital events in Southwestern Uganda (1991-2012).

METHODS

Nonparametric survival analysis techniques are used for estimating trends in the adult life expectancy of the general population (aged 15 and above), the adult life expectancy by HIV status, and the adult life expectancy deficit. The life expectancy deficit is estimated as the difference between overall life expectancy and life expectancy of the HIV-negative population. All estimates are disaggregated by sex.

RESULTS

Between 1991-1993 and 2009-2012, population-wide adult life expectancy increased from 39.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35.9-42.8] to 56.1 years (95% CI: 54.0-58.5) in women, and from 38.6 (95% CI: 35.4-42.1) to 51.4 years (95% CI: 49.2-53.7) in men. Most of the adult life expectancy gains coincide with the introduction of ART in 2004; as evidenced by an increase in the adult life expectancy of people living with HIV between 2000-2002 and 2009-2012 of 22.9 and 20.0 years for women and men, respectively. Over the whole period of observation, the adult life expectancy deficit associated with HIV decreased from 16.1 (95% CI: 12.7-19.8) to 6.0 years (95% CI: 4.1-7.8) among women, and from 16.0 (95% CI: 12.1-19.9) to 2.8 years (95% CI: 1.2-4.6) among men.

CONCLUSION

Population-wide life expectancy increased substantially, largely driven by reductions in HIV-related mortality. Women have gained more adult life years than men since the introduction of ART, but the burden of HIV in terms of the life years lost is still larger for women than it is for men.

Temporal trends in death causes in adults attending an urban HIV clinic in Uganda: a retrospective chart review

OBJECTIVE

To study temporal trends of mortality in HIV-infected adults who attended an HIV clinic in Kampala, Uganda, between 2002 and 2012.

DESIGN

Descriptive retrospective study.

METHODS

Two doctors independently reviewed the clinic database that contained information derived from the clinic files and assigned one or more causes of death to each patient >18 years of age with a known date of death. Four cause-of-death categories were defined: 'communicable conditions and AIDS-defining malignancies', 'chronic non-communicable conditions', 'other non-communicable conditions' and 'unknown'. Trends in cause-of-death categories over time were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression with year of death as an independent continuous variable.

RESULTS

1028 deaths were included; 38% of these individuals were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The estimated mortality rate dropped from 21.86 deaths/100 person years of follow-up (PYFU) in 2002 to 1.75/100 PYFU in 2012. There was a significant change in causes of death over time (p<0.01). Between 2002 and 2012, the proportion of deaths due to 'communicable conditions and AIDS-defining malignancies' decreased from 84% (95% CI 74% to 90%) to 64% (95% CI 53% to 74%) and the proportion of deaths due to 'chronic non-communicable conditions', 'other non-communicable conditions' and a combination of 'communicable and non-communicable conditions' increased. Tuberculosis (TB) was the main cause of death (34%). Death from TB decreased over time, from 43% (95% CI 32% to 53%) in 2002 to a steady proportion of approximately 25% from 2006 onwards (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rate decreased over time. The proportion of deaths from communicable conditions and AIDS-defining malignancies decreased and from non-communicable diseases, both chronic and non-chronic, increased. Nevertheless, communicable conditions and AIDS-defining malignancies continued to cause the majority of deaths, with TB as the main cause. Ongoing monitoring of cause of death is warranted and strategies to decrease mortality from TB and other common opportunistic infections are essential.

Change of treatment guidelines and evolution of ART initiation in rural South Africa: data of a large HIV care and treatment programme

Background

While WHO recommendations are to treat people earlier and earlier, it will considerably increase the number of HIV infected people eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART). In South Africa, a country which carries one of the highest HIV burden worldwide, very few studies are available on the impact of the ART guidelines on time to ART initiation in both individuals with low CD4 count and those newly eligible for ART. We thus aimed to describe ART initiation percentages in a large HIV programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, according to the temporal changes of national ART eligibility guidelines from 2007 to 2012.

Methods

Adults who accessed the decentralized Hlabisa HIV treatment programme in 2007–2012 were included. Three periods following the temporal change of ART eligibility guidelines were defined (Period 1: until April 2010; Period 2: April 2010 - July 2011; Period 3: from August 2011). Percentages of ART initiation within three months of programme entry were estimated in men, in women of childbearing age (<40 years old) and in older women, and stratifying by CD4 count. Trend tests and logistic regression models were used to study the effects of change of guidelines on ART initiation percentages.

Results

In individuals with CD4 count ≤200 cells/μL (N = 5709 men, N = 6743 women <40 years old and N = 2017 older women), percentages of ART initiation did not differ over time (p trend = 0.25; 0.28; and 0.14, respectively). In individuals with CD4 count = 201–350 cells/μL (N = 2680 men, N = 6086 women <40 years old and N = 1415 older women), percentages of ART initiation significantly increased over time (p trend <0.01 for the three groups): from 6 % in Period 1 to 20 % in Period 2 to 40 % in Period 3 in women of childbearing age, and from 7 % to 8-10 % to 42 % in men and in older women.

Conclusions

As temporal changes of guidelines, percentages of ART initiation significantly increased in newly ART eligible people and did not decrease in individuals with very low CD4 counts. It will be crucial to continue verifying the evolution of these percentages of ART initiation with future recommendations reaching near-to-universal access to ART, to ensure that individuals most in need of ART receive it.

A Population-Level Evaluation of the Effect of Antiretroviral Therapy on Cancer Incidence in Kyadondo County, Uganda, 1999-2008

BACKGROUND

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States and Europe has led to changes in the incidence of cancers among HIV-infected persons, including dramatic decreases in Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and increases in Hodgkin lymphoma, liver, and anogenital malignancies. We sought to evaluate whether increasing availability of ART is associated with changing cancer incidence in Uganda.

METHODS

Incident cases of 10 malignancies were identified from Kampala Cancer Registry from 1999 to 2008. ART coverage rates for Uganda were abstracted from the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS reports. Negative binomial and Poisson regression modeled the association between ART coverage and age-adjusted cancer incidence.

RESULTS

ART coverage in Uganda increased from 0% to 43% from 1999 to 2008. With each 10% increase in ART coverage, incidence of Kaposi sarcoma decreased by 5% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.91 to 0.99, P = 0.02] and stomach cancer decreased by 13% [IRR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.95), P = 0.002]. Conversely, incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma increased by 6% [IRR = 1.06 (95% CI: 1 to 1.12), P = 0.05], liver cancer by 12% [IRR = 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.21), P = 0.002], prostate cancer by 5% [IRR = 1.05 (95% CI: 1 to 1.10), P = 0.05], and breast cancer by 5% [IRR = 1.05 (95% CI: 1 to 1.11), P = 0.05]. ART coverage was not associated with incidence of invasive cervical cancer, lung, colon, and Hodgkin disease. These findings were similar when restricted to histologically confirmed cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that AIDS-defining malignancies and other malignancies are likely to remain significant public health burdens in sub-Saharan Africa even as ART availability increases.

A comparative analysis of national HIV policies in six African countries with generalized epidemics

OBJECTIVE

To compare national human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) policies influencing access to HIV testing and treatment services in six sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

We reviewed HIV policies as part of a multi-country study on adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. A policy extraction tool was developed and used to review national HIV policy documents and guidelines published in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe between 2003 and 2013. Key informant interviews helped to fill gaps in findings. National policies were categorized according to whether they explicitly or implicitly adhered to 54 policy indicators, identified through literature and expert reviews. We also compared the national policies with World Health Organization (WHO) guidance.

FINDINGS

There was wide variation in policies between countries; each country was progressive in some areas and not in others. Malawi was particularly advanced in promoting rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy. However, no country had a consistently enabling policy context expected to increase access to care and prevent attrition. Countries went beyond WHO guidance in certain areas and key informants reported that practice often surpassed policy.

CONCLUSION

Evaluating the impact of policy differences on access to care and health outcomes among people living with HIV is challenging. Certain policies will exert more influence than others and official policies are not always implemented. Future research should assess the extent of policy implementation and link these findings with HIV outcomes.

Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of the Course of the HIV Epidemic Using Demographic and Health Survey Methodology-Like Data

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models have played important roles in the understanding of epidemics and in the study of the impacts of various behavioral or medical measures. However, modeling accurately the future spread of an epidemic requires context-specific parameters that are difficult to estimate because of lack of data. Our objective is to propose a methodology to estimate context-specific parameters using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-like data that can be used in mathematical modeling of short-term HIV spreading.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model splits the population according to sex, age, HIV status, and antiretroviral treatment status. To estimate context-specific parameters, we used individuals' histories included in DHS-like data and a statistical analysis that used decomposition of the Poisson likelihood. To predict the course of the HIV epidemic, sex- and age-specific differential equations were used. This approach was applied to recent data from Kenya. The approach allowed the estimation of several key epidemiological parameters. Women had a higher infection rate than men and the highest infection rate in the youngest age groups (15-24 and 25-34 years) whereas men had the highest infection rate in age group 25-34 years. The immunosuppression rates were similar between age groups. The treatment rate was the highest in age group 35-59 years in both sexes. The results showed that, within the 15-24 year age group, increasing male circumcision coverage and antiretroviral therapy coverage at CD4 ≤ 350/mm3 over the current 70% could have short-term impacts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study succeeded in estimating the model parameters using DHS-like data rather than literature data. The analysis provides a framework for using the same data for estimation and prediction, which can improve the validity of context-specific predictions and help designing HIV prevention campaigns.

Loss to follow-up in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in a regional referral outpatient clinic in Brazil

One of the main aspects related to non-adherence to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) for patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) refers to the abandonment of outpatient care. This study was aimed to estimate the loss to follow-up in outpatient HIV care at a Regional Referral Clinic (SAE) for HIV/AIDS in the city of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, and to identify associated factors and predictors. This is a prospective cohort of patients older than 18 years, under cART and regular outpatient care. The study included patients who attended medical visits during July-August 2011. Those who did not return to the clinic for new medical appointments within 90 days after the sixth month of follow up were considered lost to follow-up in outpatient care. Variables with P value ≤0.25 in the univariate analysis were included in a logistic regression model, adopting a significance level of 0.05. Among the 250 patients included in the study, 44 (17.6 %) were lost to follow up in outpatient care. Among these, 38 (86.4 %) were located in the cART delivery database system (SICLOM). Younger patients (≤43 versus >43 years) (OR 2.30 CI 1.06-5.00, P = 0.04), and patients attended by physician "E", when compared with physicians "A", "B", "C" or "D" (OR 5.90 CI 2.64-13.18, P = 0.00) were more likely to be lost to follow-up. Patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more were also more likely to be to lost to follow-up (OR 2.27 CI 1.2-4.4, P = 0.01), although this association did not remain statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Although the purpose of the study, to identify individual factors associated to loss to follow-up, positives associations with a specific physician and with patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more suggest organizational factors. Although the majority of patients lost to follow-up in outpatient care were detected by SICLOM, a detectable viral load in most of these patients suggest a quality of outpatient HIV care proved ineffective, despite the availability of cART. We conclude on the need for further studies to investigate structural factors associated to loss to follow-up when enhanced retention strategies should be implemented in order to maintain an effective outpatient HIV care.

How have ART treatment programmes changed the patterns of excess mortality in people living with HIV? Estimates from four countries in East and Southern Africa

Background

Substantial falls in the mortality of people living with HIV (PLWH) have been observed since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, access and uptake of ART have been variable in many countries. We report the excess deaths observed in PLWH before and after the introduction of ART. We use data from five longitudinal studies in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda, members of the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA).

Methods

Individual data from five demographic surveillance sites that conduct HIV testing were used to estimate mortality attributable to HIV, calculated as the difference between the mortality rates in PLWH and HIV-negative people. Excess deaths in PLWH were standardized for age and sex differences and summarized over periods before and after ART became generally available. An exponential regression model was used to explore differences in the impact of ART over the different sites.

Results

127,585 adults across the five sites contributed a total of 487,242 person years. Before the introduction of ART, HIV-attributable mortality ranged from 45 to 88 deaths per 1,000 person years. Following ART availability, this reduced to 14–46 deaths per 1,000 person years. Exponential regression modeling showed a reduction of more than 50% (HR =0.43, 95% CI: 0.32–0.58), compared to the period before ART was available, in mortality at ages 15–54 across all five sites.

Discussion

Excess mortality in adults living with HIV has reduced by over 50% in five communities in sub-Saharan Africa since the advent of ART. However, mortality rates in adults living with HIV are still 10 times higher than in HIV-negative people, indicating that substantial improvements can be made to reduce mortality further. This analysis shows differences in the impact across the sites, and contrasts with developed countries where mortality among PLWH on ART can be similar to that of the general population. Further research is urgently needed to establish why the different impacts on mortality were observed and how the care and treatment programmes in these countries can be more effective in reducing mortality further.

Using HIV-attributable mortality to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult mortality in rural Tanzania

Background

The Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme has provided free antiretroviral therapy (ART) to HIV-positive persons since 2004. ART has been available to participants of the Kisesa open cohort study since 2005, but data to 2007 showed a slow uptake of ART and a modest impact on mortality. Additional data from the 2010 HIV serological survey provide an opportunity to update the estimated impact of ART in this setting.

Methods

The Kisesa Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) has collected HIV serological data and demographic data, including verbal autopsy (VA) interviews since 1994. Serological data to the end of 2010 were used to make two estimates of HIV-attributable mortality, the first among HIV positives using the difference in mortality between HIV positives and HIV negatives, and the second in the population using the difference between the observed mortality rate in the whole population and the mortality rate among the HIV negatives. Four time periods (1994–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2007, and 2008–2010) were used and HIV-attributable mortality estimates were analysed in detail for trends over time. A computer algorithm, InterVA-4, was applied to VA data to estimate the HIV-attributable mortality for the population, and this was compared to the estimates from the serological survey data.

Results

Among HIV-positive adults aged 45–59 years, high mortality rates were observed across all time periods in both males and females. In HIV-positive men, the HIV-attributable mortality was 91.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84.6%–95.3%) in 2000–2004 and 86.3% (95% CI: 71.1%–93.3%) in 2008–2010, while among women, the HIV-attributable mortality was 87.8% (95% CI: 71.1%–94.3%) in 2000–2004 and 85.8% (95% CI: 59.6%–94.4%) in 2008–2010. In the whole population, using the serological data, the HIV-attributable mortality among men aged 30–44 years decreased from 57.2% (95% CI: 46.9%–65.3%) in 2000–2004 to 36.5% (95% CI: 18.8%–50.1%) in 2008–2010, while among women the corresponding decrease was from 57.3% (95% CI: 49.7%–63.6%) to 38.7% (95% CI: 27.4%–48.2%). The HIV-attributable mortality in the population using estimates from the InterVA model was lower than that from HIV sero-status data in the period prior to ART, but slightly higher once ART became available.

Discussion

In the Kisesa HDSS, ART availability corresponds with a decline in adult overall mortality, although not as large as expected. Using InterVA to estimate HIV-attributable mortality showed smaller changes in HIV-related mortality following ART availability than the serological results.

Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in North-Western Tanzania

Introduction

Spectrum epidemiological models are used by UNAIDS to provide global, regional and national HIV estimates and projections, which are then used for evidence-based health planning for HIV services. However, there are no validations of the Spectrum model against empirical serological and mortality data from populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Serologic, demographic and verbal autopsy data have been regularly collected among over 30,000 residents in north-western Tanzania since 1994. Five-year age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs) per 1,000 person years and the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age (₄₅Q₁₅,) were calculated and compared with the Spectrum model outputs. Mortality trends by HIV status are shown for periods before the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (1994–1999, 2000–2005) and the first 5 years afterwards (2005–2009).

Results

Among 30–34 year olds of both sexes, observed ASMRs per 1,000 person years were 13.33 (95% CI: 10.75–16.52) in the period 1994–1999, 11.03 (95% CI: 8.84–13.77) in 2000–2004, and 6.22 (95% CI; 4.75–8.15) in 2005–2009. Among the same age group, the ASMRs estimated by the Spectrum model were 10.55, 11.13 and 8.15 for the periods 1994–1999, 2000–2004 and 2005–2009, respectively. The cohort data, for both sexes combined, showed that the ₄₅Q₁₅ declined from 39% (95% CI: 27–55%) in 1994 to 22% (95% CI: 17–29%) in 2009, whereas the Spectrum model predicted a decline from 43% in 1994 to 37% in 2009.

Conclusion

From 1994 to 2009, the observed decrease in ASMRs was steeper in younger age groups than that predicted by the Spectrum model, perhaps because the Spectrum model under-estimated the ASMRs in 30–34 year olds in 1994–99. However, the Spectrum model predicted a greater decrease in ₄₅Q₁₅ mortality than observed in the cohort, although the reasons for this over-estimate are unclear.

Contribution of HIV infection to mortality among cancer patients in Uganda

OBJECTIVE

HIV infection is associated with cancer risk. This relationship has resulted in a growing cancer burden, especially in resource-limited countries where HIV is highly prevalent. Little is known, however, about how HIV affects cancer survival in these settings. We therefore investigated the role of HIV in cancer survival in Uganda.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort (N = 802).

METHODS

Eligible cancer patients were residents of Kyadondo County, at least 18 years of age at cancer diagnosis, and diagnosed between 2003 and 2010 with one of the following: breast cancer, cervical cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin's lymphoma, or esophageal cancer. Patients were classified as HIV-infected at cancer diagnosis based on a documented positive HIV antibody test, medical history indicating HIV infection, or an HIV clinic referral letter. The primary outcome, vital status at 1 year following cancer diagnosis, was abstracted from the medical record or determined through linkage to the national hospice database. The risk of death during the year after cancer diagnosis was compared between cancer patients with and without evidence of HIV infection using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

HIV-infected cancer patients in Uganda experienced a more than two-fold increased risk of death during the year following cancer diagnosis compared to HIV-uninfected cancer patients [hazard ratio 2.28; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-3.23]. This association between HIV and 1-year cancer survival was observed for both cancers with (hazard ratio 1.56; 95% CI 1.04-2.34) and without (hazard ratio 2.68; 95% CI 1.20-5.99) an infectious cause.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the role of HIV in cancer survival for both cancers with and without an infectious cause in a resource-limited, HIV-endemic setting.

HIV protease inhibitors in pregnancy : pharmacology and clinical use

The impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the natural history of HIV-1 infection has resulted in dramatic reductions in disease-associated morbidity and mortality. Additionally, the epidemiology of HIV-1 infection worldwide is changing, as women now represent a substantial proportion of infected adults. As more highly effective and tolerable antiretroviral regimens become available, and as the prevention of mother-to-child transmission becomes an attainable goal in the management of HIV-infected individuals, more and more HIV-positive women are choosing to become pregnant and have children. Consequently, it is important to consider the efficacy and safety of antiretroviral agents in pregnancy. Protease inhibitors are a common class of medication used in the treatment of HIV-1 infection and are increasingly being used in pregnancy. However, several studies have raised concerns regarding pharmacokinetic alterations in pregnancy, particularly in the third trimester, which results in suboptimal drug concentrations and a theoretically higher risk of virologic failure and perinatal transmission. Drug level reductions have been observed with each individual protease inhibitor and dose adjustments in pregnancy are suggested for certain agents. Furthermore, studies have also raised concerns regarding the safety of protease inhibitors in pregnancy, particularly as they may increase the risk of pre-term birth and metabolic disturbances. Overall, protease inhibitors are safe and effective for the treatment of HIV-infected pregnant women. Specifically, ritonavir-boosted lopinavir- and atazanavir-based regimens are preferred in pregnancy, while ritonavir-boosted darunavir- and saquinavir-based therapies are reasonable alternatives. This paper reviews the use of protease inhibitors in pregnancy, focusing on pharmacokinetic and safety considerations, and outlines the recommendations for use of this class of medication in the HIV-1-infected pregnant woman.

The general population cohort in rural south-western Uganda: a platform for communicable and non-communicable disease studies

The General Population Cohort (GPC) was set up in 1989 to examine trends in HIV prevalence and incidence, and their determinants in rural south-western Uganda. Recently, the research questions have included the epidemiology and genetics of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) to address the limited data on the burden and risk factors for NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa. The cohort comprises all residents (52% aged ≥13years, men and women in equal proportions) within one-half of a rural sub-county, residing in scattered houses, and largely farmers of three major ethnic groups. Data collected through annual surveys include; mapping for spatial analysis and participant location; census for individual socio-demographic and household socioeconomic status assessment; and a medical survey for health, lifestyle and biophysical and blood measurements to ascertain disease outcomes and risk factors for selected participants. This cohort offers a rich platform to investigate the interplay between communicable diseases and NCDs. There is robust infrastructure for data management, sample processing and storage, and diverse expertise in epidemiology, social and basic sciences. For any data access enquiries you may contact the director, MRC/UVRI, Uganda Research Unit on AIDS by email to mrc@mrcuganda.org or the corresponding author.

The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level--a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa.

METHODS

Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15-59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4-6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data.

RESULTS

For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2-6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals/AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals/non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.