Impact of the quantity and quality of erector spinae muscles on the short-term prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia in Japan

BACKGROUND

Whether muscle mass and muscle quality affect the prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between erector spinae muscle mass and muscle quality on the 30-day prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia.

METHODS

Two hundred fifty-eight patients who were diagnosed with aspiration pneumonia and admitted to Sanuki Municipal Hospital for pulmonary rehabilitation intervention were included. The cross-sectional area (ESMCSA/BSA) and CT values (ESMCT) of the erector spinae muscles at the 12th thoracic vertebra were measured on chest CT images to represent muscle mass and quality, respectively. The primary outcome was defined as 30-day survival.

RESULTS

Twenty-six patients died within 30 days after hospitalization. The ESMCSA/BSA ratio was significantly greater in the survival group than in the nonsurvival group (p = 0.001). The cutoff values for 30-day survival were calculated as follows: the ESMCSA/BSA was 11.046 cm2/m2 in male patients and 9.600 cm2/m2 in female patients; the ESMCT was 26.85 HU in male patients and 8.00 HU in female patients. A higher ESMCSA/BSA significantly improved 30-day survival, while ESMCT did not show a significant difference. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that the ESMCSA/BSA was independently associated with 30-day short-term prognosis (hazard ratio 0.34, p = 0.034).

CONCLUSION

The short-term prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia may be more strongly influenced by muscle mass than by the muscle quality of the erector spinae muscles.

Performance of various pneumonia severity models for predicting adverse outcomes in elderly inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the performance of common pneumonia severity scores, such as pneumonia severity index (PSI), CURB-65, CRB-65, A-DROP, and SMART-COP, in predicting adverse outcomes in elderly community-acquired pneumonia cohort and to determine the optimal scoring system for specific outcomes of interest.

METHODS

A total of 822 elderly inpatients were included in the retrospective cohort study. Clinical and laboratory results on admission were used to calculate the above scores. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, need for mechanical ventilation (MV) and ICU admission. Model discrimination was evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).

RESULTS

The 30-day and in-hospital mortality rates were 6.8% (56/822) and 8.6% (71/822), respectively. One hundred and ninety-eight (24.0%) received MV and 111 (13.5%) were admitted to the ICU. All five scoring systems showed the same trend of increasing rates of each adverse outcome with increasing risk groups (all p < 0.001). PSI had the highest AUC, sensitivity, and negative predictive value (NPV) in predicting 30-day mortality and in-hospital mortality. SMART-COP had the highest AUC for predicting the need for MV and ICU admission, but PSI had the highest sensitivity and NPV for these two outcomes.

DISCUSSION

PSI performed well in identifying elderly patients at risk for 30-day mortality and its high NPV is helpful in excluding patients who are not at risk. Considering their effectiveness and simplicity, SMART-COP and CURB-65 are easier to perform in clinical practice than PSI.

Utility of pneumonia severity assessment tools for mortality prediction in healthcare-associated pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Accurate prognostic tools for mortality in patients with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) are needed to provide appropriate medical care, but the efficacy for mortality prediction of tools like PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, and CURB-65, widely used for predicting mortality in community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia cases, remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using PubMed, Cochrane Library (trials), and Ichushi web database (accessed on August 22, 2022). We identified articles evaluating either PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, or CURB-65 and the mortality outcome in patients with HCAP, and calculated the pooled sensitivities, specificities, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the summary area under the curves (AUCs) for mortality prediction. Additionally, the differences in predicting prognosis among these four assessment tools were evaluated using overall AUCs pooled from AUC values reported in included studies. Eventually, 21 articles were included and these quality assessments were evaluated by QUADAS-2. Using a cut-off value of moderate in patients with HCAP, the range of pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR were found to be 0.91-0.97, 0.15-0.44, 1.14-1.66, 0.18-0.33, and 3.86-9.32, respectively. Upon using a cut-off value of severe in those patients, the range of pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR were 0.63-0.70, 0.54-0.66, 1.50-2.03, 0.47-0.58, and 2.66-4.32, respectively. Overall AUCs were 0.70 (0.68-0.72), 0.70 (0.63-0.76), 0.68 (0.64-0.73), and 0.67 (0.63-0.71), respectively, for PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, and CURB-65 (p = 0.66). In conclusion, these severity assessment tools do not have enough ability to predict mortality in HCAP patients. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in predictive performance among these four severity assessment tools.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly unvaccinated patients during SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variants epidemic

Background

COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has caused a global pandemic. This study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in unvaccinated elderly patients with COVID-19 by comparing various predictive factors between the survivors and non-survivors.

Methods

We retrospectively selected 132 unvaccinated patients aged over 65 years with COVID-19 at a hospital in Kanagawa, Japan, during SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variants epidemic. We compared the clinical characteristics, laboratory and radiological findings, treatment, and complications of the survivors and non-survivors. In logistic regression analysis, variables that were significant in the univariate analysis were subjected to multivariate analysis using the variable increase method.

Results

There were 119 and 13 patients in the survivor and non-survivor groups, respectively. Multivariate regression revealed increasing odds with the presence of ARDS and DIC (odd ratio (OR) = 16.35, 34.36; P=0.002, 0.001, respectively) and prolonged hospital stay (OR = 1.17; P=0.004).

Conclusions

We found the complications of ARDS and DIC and hospital length of stay to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly unvaccinated patients with COVID-19. Establishing treatments and prevention methods for ARDS and DIC could result in lower mortality rates.

Comparison of the thickness of the erector spinae muscles between aspiration pneumonia and bacterial pneumonia patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Aspiration pneumonia is generally associated with deterioration of skeletal muscle mass, which is usually evaluated by the erector spinae muscle cross-sectional area (ESMCSA); however, no report has assessed ESMCSA in patients with aspiration pneumonia. Furthermore, erector spinae muscle thickness (ESMT) was developed to be easier to measure than ESMCSA. Therefore, this study investigated the relationship between ESMT and ESMCSA in aspiration pneumonia patients compared to bacterial pneumonia patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data for 164 patients with aspiration pneumonia and 480 patients with bacterial pneumonia who were hospitalized at Fukujuji Hospital between September 2018 and May 2022. We assessed the correlations between ESMCSA and ESMT and compared the data between the two groups.

RESULTS

ESMT had a strong, proportional relationship with ESMCSA in all patients (r = 0.908, p < 0.001) and those with aspiration pneumonia (r = 0.896, p < 0.001). ESMCSA (median 671.8 mm2 [range 164.0-1636.7] vs. median 1057.0 mm2 [range 161.3-2412.5], p < 0.001) and ESMT (median 17.1 mm [range 6.95-34.4] vs. median 23.8 mm [range 6.95-43.7], p < 0.001) were significantly lower in patients with aspiration pneumonia. A multivariate analysis of aspiration pneumonia diagnosis showed significant independent differences from bacterial pneumonia in ESMCSA (odds ratio 0.998 [95% CI: 0.996-0.999], p = 0.001) and ESMT (odds ratio 0.90 [95% CI: 0.84-0.96], p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a strong correlation between ESMCSA and ESMT. ESMT can be more easily used to evaluate skeletal muscle mass and can help in diagnosing aspiration pneumonia.

Risk factors and interventions for developing recurrent pneumonia in older adults

Background

Pneumonia is common among older adults and often recurrent. Several studies have been conducted on the risk factors for pneumonia; however, little is known about the risk factors for recurrent pneumonia. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for developing recurrent pneumonia among older adults and to investigate methods of prevention.

Methods

We analysed the data of 256 patients aged 75 years or older who were admitted for pneumonia between June 2014 and May 2017. Moreover, we reviewed the medical records for the subsequent 3 years and defined the readmission caused by pneumonia as recurrent pneumonia. Risk factors for recurrent pneumonia were analysed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Differences in the recurrence rate based on the types and use of hypnotics were also evaluated.

Results

Of the 256 patients, 90 (35.2%) experienced recurrent pneumonia. A low body mass index (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83‒0.99), history of pneumonia (OR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.23‒6.13), lung disease as a comorbidity (OR: 4.73; 95% CI: 2.13‒11.60), taking hypnotics (OR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.18‒4.01) and taking histamine-1 receptor antagonist (H1RA) (OR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.07‒5.39) were risk factors. Patients taking benzodiazepine as hypnotics were more likely to experience recurrent pneumonia than patients not taking hypnotics (OR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.25-4.18).

Conclusion

We identified several risk factors for recurrent pneumonia. Among them, restricting the use of H1RA and hypnotics, in particular benzodiazepines, may be useful in preventing the recurrence of pneumonia in adults aged 75 years or older.

Decreased community-acquired pneumonia coincided with rising awareness of precautions before governmental containment policy in Japan

The effectiveness of population-wide compliance to personal precautions (mask-wearing and hand hygiene) in preventing community-acquired pneumonia has been unknown. In Japan, different types of nonpharmaceutical interventions from personal precautions to containment and closure policies (CACPs, e.g. stay-at-home requests) were sequentially introduced from late January to April 2020, allowing for separate analysis of the effects of personal precautions from other more stringent interventions. We quantified the reduction in community-acquired pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths and assessed if it coincided with the timing of increased public awareness of personal precautions before CACPs were implemented. A quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design was applied to non-COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalization and 30-day death data from April 2015 to August 2020 across Japan to identify any trend changes between February and April 2020. We also performed a comparative analysis of pyelonephritis and biliary tract infections to account for possible changes in the baseline medical attendance. These trend changes were then compared with multiple indicators of public awareness and behaviors related to personal precautions, including keyword usage in mass media coverage and sales of masks and hand hygiene products. Hospitalizations and 30-day deaths from non-COVID-19 pneumonia dropped by 24.3% (95% CI 14.8-32.8) and 16.1% (5.5-25.5), respectively, in February 2020, before the implementation of CACPs, whereas pyelonephritis and biliary tract infections did not suggest a detectable change. These changes coincided with increases in indicators related to personal precautions rather than those related to contact behavior changes. Community-acquired pneumonia could be reduced by population-wide compliance to moderate precautionary measures.

Early physical rehabilitation effectiveness in frail older patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: analysis of a nationwide database in Japan

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a significant predictor of prognosis in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). No effective therapy has been reported in frail patients with CAP, with frailty determined using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS).

AIMS

To investigate whether early physical rehabilitation intervention would effectively minimize adverse outcomes in frail older patients (determined using the HFRS) hospitalized for CAP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort analysis involved patients with CAP aged ≥ 65 years enrolled in the Japanese Diagnostic Procedure Combination Database between 2014 and 2020 and assessed as being frail. We compared 30-day mortality and readmission rates for patients who did and who did not receive physical rehabilitation within three days of admission and evaluated the association between outcomes and receiving early physical rehabilitation using Cox regression models and inverse probability weighting (IPW) for sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The analysis involved 31,133 frail older patients hospitalized for CAP (mean age 84.3 ± 6.3 years; females, 49.1%), including 11,515 (37.0%) who received early physical rehabilitation. Cox regression analysis showed that early physical rehabilitation intervention was inversely associated with 30-day mortality and readmission rates. The IPW model also showed similar results.

DISCUSSION

Early physical rehabilitation was associated with reduced risks of 30-day mortality, overall in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission rates in frail older patients with CAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Early physical rehabilitation in frail older patients hospitalized for CAP may improve outcomes. This finding highlights the importance of simultaneously introducing the HFRS and early physical rehabilitation intervention into clinical practice for frail older patients with CAP.

Assessment of the pneumonia severity score in community-acquired and nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia due to COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

The Japanese Respiratory Society (JRS) pneumonia guidelines recommend simple predictive rules, the A-DROP scoring system, for assessment of the severity of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP). We evaluated whether the A-DROP system can be adapted for assessment of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.

METHODS

Data from 1141 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were analyzed, comprising 502 patients observed in the 1st to 3rd wave period, 338 patients in the 4th wave and 301 patients in the 5th wave in Japan.

RESULTS

The mortality rate and mechanical ventilation rate were 0% and 1.4% in patients classified with mild disease (A-DROP score, 0 point), 3.2% and 46.7% in those with moderate disease (1 or 2 points), 20.8% and 78.3% with severe disease (3 points), and 55.0% and 100% with extremely severe disease (4 or 5 points), indicating an increase in the mortality and mechanical ventilation rates in accordance with severity (Cochran-Armitage trend test; p = <0.001). This significant relationship between the severity in the A-DROP scoring system and either the mortality rate or mechanical ventilation rate was observed in patients with COVID-19 CAP and NHCAP. In each of the five COVID-19 waves, the same significant relationship was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate and mechanical ventilation rate in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia increased depending on severity classified according to the A-DROP scoring system. Our results suggest that the A-DROP scoring system can be adapted for the assessment of severity of COVID-19 CAP and NHCAP.

Reduced renal function is associated with prolonged hospitalization in frail older patients with non-severe pneumonia

Objective

Pneumonia is a disease with high morbidity and mortality among older individuals in Japan. In practice, most older patients with pneumonia are not required ventilatory management and are not necessarily in critical respiratory condition. However, prolonged hospitalization itself is considered to be a serious problem even in these patients with non-critical pneumonia and have negative and critical consequences such as disuse syndrome in older patients. Therefore, it is essential to examine the factors involved in redundant hospital stays for older hospitalized patients with non-severe pneumonia, many of whom are discharged alive.

Method

We examined hospitalized patients diagnosed with pneumonia who were 65 years and older in our facility between February 2017 and March 2020. A longer length of stay (LOS) was defined in cases in which exceeded the 80th percentile of the hospitalization period for all patients was exceeded, and all other cases with a shorter hospitalization were defined as a shorter LOS. In a multivariate logistic regression model, factors determining longer LOSs were analyzed using significant variables in univariate analysis and clinically relevant variables which could interfere with renal function, including fasting period, time to start rehabilitation, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score of 2 or higher, bed-ridden state.

Results

We analyzed 104 eligible participants, and the median age was 86 (interquartile range, 82–91) years. Overall, 31 patients (30.7%) were bed-ridden, and 37 patients (35.6%) were nursing-home residents. Patients with a Clinical Frailty Scale score of 4 or higher, considered clinically frail, accounted for 93.2% of all patients. In multivariate analysis, for a decrease of 5 ml/min/1.73m² in eGFR, the adjusted odds ratios for longer LOSs were 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.44) after adjusting for confounders.

Conclusion

Reduced renal function at admission has a significant impact on prolonged hospital stay among older patients with non-severe pneumonia. Thoughtful consideration should be given to the frail older pneumonia patients with reduced renal function or with chronic kidney disease as a comorbidity at the time of hospitalization to prevent the progression of geriatric syndrome associated with prolonged hospitalization.

Severity and prognostic factors of SARS-CoV-2-induced pneumonia: The value of clinical and laboratory biomarkers and the A-DROP score

Introduction

Numerous clinical and laboratory scores that include C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), interleukin 6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine levels and oxygenation (PaO₂ and SaO₂) have been used for the prognosis of COVID-19. In addition, composite scores have been developed for the assessment of general state and risk in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) that may be applied for COVID-19 as well. In this study, we assessed severity and potential prognostic risk factors for unfavorable outcome among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We also applied the A-DROP general scoring system used in CAP to COVID-19.

Patients and methods

Altogether 233 patients admitted to our center with COVID-19 were included in the study. Clinical status, several laboratory biomarkers described above, indicators of oxygenation were determined at hospital admission. We also applied the A-DROP composite scoring system that includes Age (≥ 70 years in males and ≥ 75 years in females), Dehydration (BUN ≥ 7.5 mmol/l), Respiratory failure (SaO₂ ≤ 90% or PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg), Orientation disturbance (confusion) and low blood Pressure (systolic BP ≤ 90 mmHg) to COVID-19.

Results

At the time of admission, most patients had elevated CRP, LDH, ferritin, D-dimer, and IL-6 levels indicating multisystemic inflammatory syndrome (MIS). Altogether 49 patients (21.2%) required admission to ICU, 46 (19.7%) needed ventilation and 40 patients (17.2%) died. In the binary analysis, admission to ICU, the need for ventilation and death were all significantly associated with the duration of hospitalization, history of hypertension or obesity, confusion/dizziness, as well as higher absolute leukocyte and neutrophil and lower lymphocyte counts, elevated CRP, PCT, LDH, ferritin, IL-6, BUN, and creatinine levels, low PaO₂ and SaO₂ and higher A-DROP score at the time of admission (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Numerous laboratory biomarkers in addition to obesity, dizziness at the time of admission and the history of hypertension may predict the need for ICU admission and ventilation, as well as mortality in COVID-19. Moreover, A-DROP may be a suitable scoring system for the assessment of general health and disease outcome in COVID-19.

Mortality changes for patients with pneumococcal pneumonia from 2012 to 2017 in Japan

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal pneumonia has a high morbidity and mortality in adults, especially those ≥65 years old. In the past decade, pneumococcal vaccination programs have been initiated worldwide, however, few data concerning mortality changes are available in pneumococcal pneumonia patients and there are no reports clarifying these current changes in Japan.

METHODS

Japanese patients ≥65 years old hospitalized with pneumococcal pneumonia between April 2012 and March 2018 were analyzed using the Diagnostic Procedure Combination database. In-hospital mortality was evaluated, and the odds ratios for this outcome in each fiscal year compared with that in 2012 was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2017, data of 47,375 pneumococcal pneumonia patients ≥65 years old were extracted. The incidence per 1000 person-years for in-hospital mortality was 60.4 in 2012, 56.8 in 2013, 63.2 in 2014, 56.1 in 2015, 73.0 in 2016, and 67.4 in 2017 and the odds ratios for in-hospital mortality in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 compared with that in 2012 were 1.00, 1.05, 1.04, 1.06, and 0.98, respectively. There were no significant differences between 2012 and each year from 2013 to 2017. Low BMI; low ADL score; high A-DROP score; comorbid malignancy and heart failure; the coexistence of invasive pneumococcal infection; and the use of invasive mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There were no changes in in-hospital mortality in pneumococcal pneumonia patients between 2012 or each year from 2013 to 2017 and further epidemiological observations are necessary.

Existing Data Sources for Clinical Epidemiology: Database of the National Hospital Organization in Japan

This review introduces the National Hospital Organization (NHO) database in Japan. The NHO has maintained two databases through a system of data collection from 140 hospitals in the NHO. National Hospital Organization Clinical Data Archives (NCDA) is collecting clinical information in real time from the electronic medical records since January 2016, and Medical Information Analysis (MIA) databank is collecting daily insurance claims data since April 2010. The NHO database covers more than 8 million patients in 140 hospitals throughout Japan. The database consists of the information of patient profiles, hospital admission and discharge, diagnosis with ICD-10 codes, text data from medical chart, daily health insurance claims such as medical procedures, medications or surgeries, vital signs and laboratory data, and so on. The NHO database includes a wide variety of diseases and settings, including acute, chronic and intractable diseases, emergency medical services, disaster medicine, response to emerging infectious disease outbreaks, medical care according to health policies such as psychiatry, tuberculosis, or muscular dystrophy, and health systems in sparsely populated non-urban areas. Among several common diseases, the database has representativeness in terms of age distribution compared with the Patient Survey 2017 by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Interested researchers can contact (700-dbproject@mail.hosp.go.jp) the NHO database division to obtain more information about the NHO database for utilization.

Comparison of Pneumonia Severity Indices, qCSI, 4C-Mortality Score and qSOFA in Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia

This is a retrospective and observational study on 1511 patients with SARS-CoV-2, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 by real-time PCR testing and hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia. 1511 patients, 879 male (58.17%) and 632 female (41.83%) with a mean age of 60.1 ± 14.7 were included in the study. Survivors and non-survivors groups were statistically compared with respect to survival, discharge, ICU admission and in-hospital death. Although gender was not statistically significant different between two groups, 80 (60.15%) of the patients who died were male. Mean age was 72.8 ± 11.8 in non-survivors vs. 59.9 ± 14.7 in survivors (p < 0.001). Overall in-hospital mortality was found to be 8.8% (133/1511 cases), and overall ICU admission was 10.85% (164/1511 cases). The PSI/PORT score of the non-survivors group was higher than that of the survivors group (144.38 ± 28.64 versus 67.17 ± 25.63, p < 0.001). The PSI/PORT yielding the highest performance was the best predictor for in-hospital mortality, since it incorporates the factors as advanced age and comorbidity (AUROC 0.971; % 95 CI 0.961−0.981). The use of A-DROP may also be preferred as an easier alternative to PSI/PORT, which is a time-consuming evaluation although it is more comprehensive.

Comparison between the Severity Scoring Systems A-DROP and CURB-65 for Predicting Safe Discharge from the Emergency Department in Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background

In most community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) treatment guidelines, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 are used as prognostic tools. Recently, simpler and more effective predictive tools for CAP treatment, such as the A-DROP scoring system, have been developed. However, no study has performed a comparative evaluation to identify the superior tool for predicting when patients can be discharged safely.

Objectives

To compare the performances of A-DROP and CURB-65, simple predictive tools for CAP, based on 30-day death rates and 72-hour revisit rates for CAP following discharge from the emergency department (ED).

Method

This single-center retrospective observational study enrolled patients who were at least 18 years old and diagnosed with CAP at the Songklanagarind Hospital ED from January 2015 to April 2021. Following a severity assessment using the A-DROP and CURB-65 scoring systems, the 30-day mortality rates and 72-hour revisit rates after discharge from the ED were compared.

Results

A total of 408 patients were enrolled in this study. Six (1.47%) died within 30 days after presentation, whereas 29 (7.1%) returned to the ED within 72 hours after discharge. Most patients (72%) who revisited the ED were over the age of 65 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the prediction of 30-day mortality were 0.756 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.526–0.987) and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.647–0.970) for A-DROP and CURB-65, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the prediction of 72-hour revisit were 0.617 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.507–0.728) and 0.639 (95% CI: 0.536–0.743) for A-DROP and CURB-65, respectively.

Conclusion

A-DROP and CURB-65 yield similar results and can be used to assess low-risk patients with CAP for discharge from the ED. Older patients, even those with low-risk scores, should be particularly considered for admission to a short-term observation unit or ward.

A-DROP Scoring System in Predicting Mortality within 30 Days of Hospitalization in Community-acquired Pneumonia Patients at H. Adam Malik General Hospital Medan

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death among infectious diseases, contributing significantly to patient morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an accurate initial assessment of CAP severity should be performed immediately to determine the prognosis before starting the management. A-DROP scoring system is one of the initial assessments. AIM: This study aimed to determine the accuracy of the A-DROP scoring system in predicting mortality within 30 days of hospitalization at H. Adam Malik General Hospital Medan. METHODS: This is an observational study with a retrospective and cohort study. Data were obtained from the medical records of 76 CAP patients hospitalized from January 2018 to December 2018. Each patient was assessed with an A-DROP scoring system and the presence or absence of mortality within 30 days of hospitalization. The data were processed using statistical analysis to calculate the area under curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal cutoff point is also analyzed using the Youden index. RESULT: The ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC was 0.772 (95% CI: 0.666–0.978, p < 0.001). The accuracy of A-DROP scoring system is good (AUC:0.7−0.8). The optimal of the Youden index is 0.428 at the cutoff point A-DROP score >1.5, so that the optimal cutoff point is A-DROP score ≥2. CONCLUSION: The A-DROP scoring system has good accuracy in predicting mortality within 30 days of hospitalized CAP patients. The A-DROP scoring system has an accuracy similar to the PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index) and the CURB-65 scoring system.

Machine-Learning Approaches for Predicting the Need of Oxygen Therapy in Early-Stage COVID-19 in Japan: Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study

Background

Early prediction of oxygen therapy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is vital for triage. Several machine-learning prognostic models for COVID-19 are currently available. However, external validation of these models has rarely been performed. Therefore, most reported predictive performance is optimistic and has a high risk of bias. This study aimed to develop and validate a model that predicts oxygen therapy needs in the early stages of COVID-19 using a sizable multicenter dataset.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included consecutive COVID-19 hospitalized patients confirmed by a reverse transcription chain reaction in 11 medical institutions in Fukui, Japan. We developed and validated seven machine-learning models (e.g., penalized logistic regression model) using routinely collected data (e.g., demographics, simple blood test). The primary outcome was the need for oxygen therapy (≥1 L/min or SpO₂ ≤ 94%) during hospitalization. C-statistics, calibration slope, and association measures (e.g., sensitivity) evaluated the performance of the model using the test set (randomly selected 20% of data for internal validation). Among these seven models, the machine-learning model that showed the best performance was re-evaluated using an external dataset. We compared the model performances using the A-DROP criteria (modified version of CURB-65) as a conventional method.

Results

Of the 396 patients with COVID-19 for the model development, 102 patients (26%) required oxygen therapy during hospitalization. For internal validation, machine-learning models, except for the k-point nearest neighbor, had a higher discrimination ability than the A-DORP criteria (P < 0.01). The XGboost had the highest c-statistic in the internal validation (0.92 vs. 0.69 in A-DROP criteria; P < 0.001). For the external validation with 728 temporal independent datasets (106 patients [15%] required oxygen therapy), the XG boost model had a higher c-statistic (0.88 vs. 0.69 in A-DROP criteria; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Machine-learning models demonstrated a more significant performance in predicting the need for oxygen therapy in the early stages of COVID-19.

Clinical Utility of 4C Mortality Scores among Japanese COVID-19 Patients: A Multicenter Study

Background: We analyzed data from COVID-19 patients in Japan to assess the utility of the 4C mortality score as compared with conventional scorings. Methods: In this multicenter study, COVID-19 patients hospitalized between March 2020 and June 2021, over 16 years old, were recruited. The superiority for correctly predicting mortality and severity by applying the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was compared. A Cox regression model was used to compare the length of hospitalization for each risk group of 4C mortality score. Results: Among 206 patients, 21 patients died. The area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidential interval (CI)) of the ROC curve for mortality and severity, respectively, of 4C mortality scores (0.84 (95% CI 0.76–0.92) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.91)) were higher than those of qSOFA (0.66 (95% CI 0.53–0.78) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.59–0.75)), SOFA (0.70 (95% CI 0.55–0.84) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.89)), A-DROP (0.78 (95% CI 0.69–0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.88)), and CURB-65 (0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.90) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.88)). For length of hospitalization among survivors, the intermediate- and high- or very high-risk groups had significantly lower hazard ratios, i.e., 0.48 (95% CI 0.30–0.76)) and 0.23 (95% CI 0.13–0.43) for discharge. Conclusions: The 4C mortality score is better for estimating mortality and severity in COVID-19 Japanese patients than other scoring systems.

A Service Evaluation of Adherence with Antimicrobial Guidelines in the Treatment of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Before and During the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak

Antimicrobial stewardship is essential to reducing antimicrobial resistance, reducing costs, and, crucially, ensuring good patient care. Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common medical condition, the symptoms of which show a significant overlap with those of COVID-19. Following the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland, patients presenting to our hospital with features of a respiratory infection were more commonly reviewed within 24 hours (24h) of admission by an infectious disease (ID) or respiratory specialist. We aimed to assess how the change in service provision, involving frequent specialist reviews of patients admitted with features of CAP during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, affected antimicrobial stewardship and prescribing practices. Patients admitted under general medical teams treated for CAP from March–April 2020 were included. Retrospective data including demographics, CURB-65 score, and antimicrobial therapy were collected, as well as information on whether the patient had undergone specialist review by an ID or respiratory physician. Data were compared to a similar cohort treated for CAP between November 2019 and January 2020, though in this cohort, before the era of COVID-19, none of the patients had undergone specialist review. Seventy-six patients were included from the March–April 2020 cohort, with 77 from November 2019–January 2020 for comparison. An ID or respiratory specialist reviewed 35 patients from the March–April cohort within 24 h of admission. There was a higher rate of appropriate escalation, de-escalation, and continuation of antibiotics among those reviewed. Less than 20% of patients were started on antibiotics in accordance with CAP guidelines on admission, though the antibiotics initiated were frequently deemed appropriate in the clinical setting. Specialist review increases rates of appropriate antimicrobial prescribing and adherence with hospital guidelines in patients with CAP.

Clinical Features and Risk Factors for Mortality in Hospitalized Older Adults with Pneumonia

Background

Pneumonia is a common disease among the aging population in Japan. Hence, it is important to elucidate the risks related to pneumonia mortality. Since Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most commonly observed pathogen, pneumococcal vaccination is recommended to older adults. Therefore, this study aimed to clarify the clinical features of pneumonia, including the status of pneumococcal vaccination, in hospitalized older adult patients in Japan.

Methods

This single-centered retrospective study was conducted by reviewing the medical records of all patients with acute pneumonia at Fujisawa City Hospital in Japan from April 2018 to March 2019. Patients were divided into two groups based on their history of pneumococcal vaccination. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality, while the secondary endpoint was risk factors associated with mortality.

Results

We included 93 patients with pneumonia in this retrospective study. Although the mortality rate was higher in the vaccinated group (15.8%) than in the unvaccinated group (9.1%), vaccination status was not identified as a significant risk factor for mortality after multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio: 2.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.667-11.02; p=0.16). In addition, the A-DROP score was identified as an independent risk factor (odds ratio: 2.64; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-5.72; p=0.008).

Conclusions

Our study suggested that the A-DROP score is a risk factor of mortality for pneumonia in older adults. In addition, pneumococcal vaccination history was related to increased mortality; however, the influence of the vaccination remains unclear because of the small sample size.

A literature review of severity scores for adults with influenza or community-acquired pneumonia - implications for influenza vaccines and therapeutics

Influenza vaccination and antiviral therapeutics may attenuate disease, decreasing severity of illness in vaccinated and treated persons. Standardized assessment tools, definitions of disease severity, and clinical endpoints would support characterizing the attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals. We review potential clinical parameters and endpoints that may be useful for ordinal scales evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals in hospital-based studies. In studies of influenza and community-acquired pneumonia, common physiologic parameters that predicted outcomes such as mortality, ICU admission, complications, and duration of stay included vital signs (hypotension, tachypnea, fever, hypoxia), laboratory results (blood urea nitrogen, platelets, serum sodium), and radiographic findings of infiltrates or effusions. Ordinal scales based on these parameters may be useful endpoints for evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and therapeutics. Factors such as clinical and policy relevance, reproducibility, and specificity of measurements should be considered when creating a standardized ordinal scale for assessment.

In-hospital mortality associated with community-acquired pneumonia due to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a matched-pair cohort study

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear whether methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) pneumonia is associated with higher mortality compared with non-MRSA pneumonia. This study's objective was to compare outcomes including in-hospital mortality and healthcare costs during hospitalisation between patients with MRSA pneumonia and those with non-MRSA pneumonia.

METHODS

Using a national inpatient database in Japan, we conducted a 1:4 matched-pair cohort study of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2014. In-hospital outcomes (mortality, length of stay and healthcare costs during hospitalisation) were compared between patients with and without MRSA infection. We performed multiple imputation using chained equations followed by multivariable regression analyses fitted with generalised estimating equations to account for clustering within matched pairs. All-cause in-hospital mortality and healthcare costs during hospitalisation were compared for pneumonia patients with and without MRSA infection.

RESULTS

Of 450,317 inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia, 3102 patients with MRSA pneumonia were matched with 12,320 patients with non-MRSA pneumonia. The MRSA pneumonia patients had higher mortality, longer hospital stays and higher costs. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that MRSA pneumonia was significantly associated with higher in-hospital mortality compared with non-MRSA pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio = 1.94; 95% confidence interval: 1.72-2.18; p < 0.001). Healthcare costs during hospitalisation were significantly higher for patients with MRSA pneumonia than for those with non-MRSA pneumonia (difference = USD 8502; 95% confidence interval: USD 7959-9045; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

MRSA infection was associated with higher in-hospital mortality and higher healthcare costs during hospitalisation, suggesting that preventing MRSA pneumonia is essential.

Early walking time is associated with recovery of activities of daily living during hospitalization in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia: A single-center prospective study

AIM

Pneumonia is a common disease with a high mortality rate among older adults that is associated with a decline in activities of daily living (ADL) during hospitalization. The aims of this study were to investigate the following: (i) early physical activity time among older patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia; and (ii) the association of physical activity time with the recovery of ADL.

METHODS

A prospective observational study was carried out in patients aged ≥65 years hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia. We measured the time spent standing and walking as physical activity time using the activPAL accelerometer from the third to the ninth day of admission. Patients underwent rehabilitation during their hospitalization, and rehabilitation effectiveness was calculated using the motor Functional Independence Measure on admission and at day 10. We used stepwise multiple regression to examine the relationship between physical activity time and rehabilitation effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 87 patients were included in the analysis. Median (interquartile range) physical activity time was 69 min/day (43-103 min/day). In the multiple regression model, a greater daily walking time, higher cognitive and physical function, and ADL at admission were independently associated with rehabilitation effectiveness (adjusted R²  = 0.32, P < 0.0001). For every increase of 10 min/day of walking time, ADL improved by 7.8% (B = 7.8, 95% CI 1.3-14.2, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia have low levels of physical activity, and increasing early walking time might be an effective strategy to accelerate the recovery of ADL. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; ••: ••-••.

Plasma amino acid levels in individuals with bacterial pneumonia and healthy controls

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Amino acids play an important role in immune responses and as neurotransmitters. During the course of a bacterial pneumonia episode, from the onset to the recovery phase, immune responses dramatically change, as does the metabolism of amino acids, a concept referred to as immuno-nutrition. We investigated the differences in plasma amino acid levels (PAA) between the acute and recovery phases in individuals with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and healthy controls.

METHODS

Two groups of participants were recruited: Healthy adults aged over 60 years and patients hospitalized with CAP. Samples were collected on Day 0 (the day of admission) and Day 7 (after 6-8 days treatment).

RESULTS

A total of 93 healthy adults and 60 patients with CAP participated in the study. Of those with CAP, 43 had their amino acids measured on Day 7. Patients with CAP had markedly decreased PAA of 12 amino acids on Day 0. Citrulline, histidine, and tryptophan remained low in male, while aspartic acid, asparagine, ornithine, proline, and threonine were higher on Day 7 in both males and females. Phenylalanine increased at Day 0 and Day7.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that the host response against bacterial infection changed the plasma amino acid levels. PAA on Day 7 (representing convalescence) continued to display an amino acid profile distinct from that observed in healthy individuals. Based on these findings, reconsideration for providing amino acids to patients with bacterial pneumonia should be needed depending on stage of the pneumonia from the perspective of immuno-nutrition.

Characteristics and Trends of the Hospital Standardized Readmission Ratios for Pneumonia: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Japanese Administrative Claims Data from 2010 to 2018

Previous studies indicated that optimal care for pneumonia during hospitalization might reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality and subsequent readmission. This study was a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claims data from April 2010 to March 2019. We analyzed data from 167,120 inpatients with pneumonia ≥15 years old in the benchmarking project managed by All Japan Hospital Association. Hospital-level risk-adjusted ratios of 30-day readmission for pneumonia were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation in each consecutive period. In the analysis using complete 9-year data including 54,756 inpatients, the hospital standardized readmission ratios (HSRRs) showed wide variation among hospitals and improvement trend (r = −0.18, p = 0.03). In the analyses of trends in each consecutive period, the HSRRS were positively correlated between ‘2010–2012’ and ‘2013–2015’ (r = 0.255, p = 0.010), and ‘2013–2015’ and ‘2016–2018’ (r = 0.603, p < 0.001). This study denoted the HSRRs for pneumonia could be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. The HSRRs significantly varied among hospitals with comparable case-mix, and could relatively evaluate the quality of preventing readmission including long-term trends. The HSRRs can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel.

Predictive Value of the Pneumonia Severity Score on Mortality due to Aspiration Pneumonia

Objective: Designing an efficient management strategy for aspiration is of high priority in our aging society because of its high incidence. We evaluated the prognostic value of both the A-DROP (age, dehydration, respiratory, disorientation, and pressure) and the modified A-DROP scoring systems (adding respiratory rate and comorbidity to A-DROP) in patients with aspiration pneumonia.Design: This is a retrospective study using electronic medical records at Saitama Medical University (SMU) hospital.Setting: A 965-bed university tertiary medical center in Japan.Participants: Data were extracted from the electronic medical records of patients from SMU hospital.Methods: In-hospital mortality was compared between two groups: (1) those with a 'severe' to 'advanced severe' A-DROP score; and (2) those with a 'low' to 'middle' A-DROP score. Area under the curve (AUC) for mortality for both the A-DROP and modified A-DROP scoring systems were compared.Results: The in-hospital mortality rates for patients with a high and a low A-DROP score were 28.6% and 9.0%, respectively. The mortality rates in the high modified A-DROP score group and in the low modified A-DROP score group were 28.2% and 9.9%, respectively. These differences in the mortality rates between the two groups were statistically significant for both the A-DROP and the modified A-DROP scoring systems. The AUC of the receiver operating characteristics curve for the A-DROP (0.700; 95% confidence interval, 0.608-0.779) was statistically significant.Conclusion: The A-DROP and modified A-DROP scoring systems are associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with aspiration pneumonia. The A-DROP scoring system is easy to use and may be a clinically valuable tool in the management of aspiration pneumonia.

Pneumonia severity indices predict prognosis in coronavirus disease-2019

Background

Early recognition of the severe illness is critical in coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) to provide best care and optimize the use of limited resources.

Objectives

We aimed to determine the predictive properties of common community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores and COVID-19 specific indices.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort, COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a teaching hospital between 18 March-20 May 2020 were included. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics related to severity and mortality were measured and CURB-65, PSI, A-DROP, CALL, and COVID-GRAM scores were calculated as defined previously in the literature. Progression to severe disease and in-hospital/overall mortality during the follow-up of the patients were determined from electronic records. Kaplan-Meier, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard regression model was used. The discrimination capability of pneumonia severity indices was evaluated by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results

Two hundred ninety-eight patients were included in the study. Sixty-two patients (20.8%) presented with severe COVID-19 while thirty-one (10.4%) developed severe COVID-19 at any time from the admission. In-hospital mortality was 39 (13.1%) while the overall mortality was 44 (14.8%). The mortality in low-risk groups that were identified to manage outside the hospital was 0 in CALL Class A, 1.67% in PSI low risk, and 2.68% in CURB-65 low-risk. However, the AUCs for the mortality prediction in COVID-19 were 0.875, 0.873, 0.859, 0.855, and 0.828 for A-DROP, PSI, CURB-65, COVID-GRAM, and CALL scores respectively. The AUCs for the prediction of progression to severe disease was 0.739, 0.711, 0,697, 0.673, and 0.668 for CURB-65, CALL, PSI, COVID-GRAM, A-DROP respectively. The hazard ratios (HR) for the tested pneumonia severity indices demonstrated that A-DROP and CURB-65 scores had the strongest association with mortality, and PSI, and COVID-GRAM scores predicted mortality independent from age and comorbidity.

Conclusion

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) scores can predict in COVID-19. The indices proposed specifically to COVID-19 work less than nonspecific scoring systems surprisingly. The CALL score may be used to decide outpatient management in COVID-19.

Hospitalization of mild cases of community-acquired pneumonia decreased more than severe cases during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all healthcare systems. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number and severity of cases of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Japan.

METHODS

Using claims data from the Quality Indicator/Improvement Project (QIP) database, urgent cases of inpatients for CAP from 01 August 2018 to 30 July 2020 were included. The monthly ratios of inpatient cases were compared from August 2018 to July 2019 and August 2019 to July 2020 as a year-over-year comparison. These ratios were also compared according to the "A-DROP" severity score, and an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the monthly number of inpatient cases.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 67,900 inpatient cases for CAP in 262 hospitals. During the COVID-19 pandemic (defined as the period between March and July 2020) the number of inpatient cases for CAP drastically decreased compared with the same period in the previous year (-48.1%), despite a temporary reduction in the number of other urgent admissions. The number of inpatient cases decreased according to the severity of pneumonia. Milder cases showed a greater decrease in the year-over-year ratio than severe ones: mild -55.2%, moderate -45.8%, severe -39.4%, and extremely severe -33.2%. The ITS analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced the monthly number of inpatient cases for CAP (estimated decrease: -1233 cases; 95% CI -521 to -1955).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a significant reduction in the number of inpatient cases for CAP during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. The milder cases showed a greater decrease in the year-over-year ratio of the number of inpatient cases.

Effects of Oral Management on Elderly Patients with Pneumonia

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we examined the factors influencing the presence or absence of dental intervention in patients with pneumonia in an acute-care hospital, focusing on oral intake and its status.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Teikyo University School of Medicine, Mizonokuchi Hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients ≥65 years of age who were admitted to the Teikyo University School of Medicine, Mizonokuchi Hospital between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2019 with pneumonia who were referred to the Department of Rehabilitation with suspected dysphagia were included in the study. Fifty patients who underwent dental intervention were compared with 50 controls who had received no dental interventions prior to the opening of the dental department.

MEASUREMENTS

Time series matching was retrospectively performed using the Oral Health Assessment Tool (OHAT). From the medical records, age at admission, sex, pneumonia severity classification (age, dehydration, respiratory failure, orientation disturbance, and blood pressure [A-DROP] score), body mass index, Charlson's Comorbidity Index, OHAT, functional oral intake scale (FOIS) score at admission and discharge, and the length of hospital stay were retrieved; FOIS level ≥4 was defined as established oral intake.

RESULTS

The number of patients in the control group before matching was 179. Twelve patients with missing information and seven patients who died in the hospital were excluded from this study. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that dental intervention (odds ratio 3.0, p = 0.014) was associated with the establishment of oral intake at discharge. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that dental intervention was a significant factor for FOIS at discharge (p = 0.002) and the length of hospital stay (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

Oral management with dental intervention was associated with establishing oral intake and reducing hospital stay in patients with pneumonia, regardless of pneumonia severity or comorbidities.

Blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio and A-DROP are useful in assessing the severity of Pneumocystis pneumonia in patients without human immunodeficiency virus infection

INTRODUCTION

There is an increasing incidence of Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) among individuals without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (non-HIV PcP). However, prognostic factors for patients with non-HIV PcP have not been identified. Moreover, A-DROP (for classifying the severity of community-acquired pneumonia) or the blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio (BUN/Alb), which is reported to be a predictor of mortality of community-acquired pneumonia, has not been established as an efficient prognostic factor in patients with non-HIV PcP. In this study, we analyzed the prognostic factors for non-HIV PcP and evaluated the prognostic ability of A-DROP and the BUN/Alb ratio.

METHODS

This retrospective study involved a chart review of the medical records of 102 patients diagnosed with non-HIV PcP between January 2003 and May 2019 at five medical facilities.

RESULTS

Overall, 102 patients were involved in this study. The 30-day mortality rate for non-HIV PcP was 20.5% in this study population. Compared with survivors, non-survivors had significantly lower serum albumin levels and significantly higher age, corticosteroid dosage at the PcP onset, alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient, A-DROP score, lactate dehydrogenase levels, blood urea nitrogen levels, and BUN/Alb ratio. Multivariate analysis showed that a high BUN/Alb ratio at treatment initiation was significantly associated with 30-day mortality risk. The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that A-DROP score had the highest prognostic ability in estimating 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with non-HIV PcP, a high BUN/Alb ratio is an independent prognostic predictor of mortality risk, and A-DROP is useful for classifying the severity.

Prognostic value of chest computed tomography in community-acquired pneumonia patients

Background

Chest computed tomography (CT) is commonly used to diagnose pneumonia in Japan, but its usability in terms of prognostic predictability is not obvious. We modified CURB-65 (confusion, urea >7 mmol·L⁻¹, respiratory rate ≥30 breaths·min⁻¹, blood pressure <90 mmHg (systolic) ≤60 mmHg (diastolic), age ≥65 years) and A-DROP scores with CT information and evaluated their ability to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia patients.

Methods

This study was conducted using a prospective registry of the Adult Pneumonia Study Group – Japan. Of the 791 registry patients, 265 hospitalised patients with chest CT were evaluated. Chest CT-modified CURB-65 scores were developed with the first 30 study patients. The 30-day mortality predictability of CT-modified, chest radiography-modified and original CURB-65 scores were validated.

Results

In score development, infiltrates over four lobes and pleural effusion on CT added extra points to CURB-65 scores. The area under the curve for CT-modified CURB-65 scores was significantly higher than that of chest radiography-modified or original CURB-65 scores (both p<0.001). The optimal cut-off CT-modified CURB-65 score was ≥4 (positive-predictive value 80.8%; negative-predictive value 78.6%, for 30-day mortality). For sensitivity analyses, chest CT-modified A-DROP scores also demonstrated better prognostic value than did chest radiography-modified and original A-DROP scores. Poor physical status, chronic heart failure and multiple infiltration hampered chest radiography evaluation.

Conclusion

Chest CT modification of CURB-65 or A-DROP scores improved the prognostic predictability relative to the unmodified scores. In particular, in patients with poor physical status or chronic heart failure, CT findings have a significant advantage. Therefore, CT can be used to enhance prognosis prediction.

Chest CT modification of CURB-65 and A-DROP improves prognosis prediction in community-acquired pneumonia. Patients with low physical status or chronic heart failure may have mismatch of chest CT and radiography findings.https://bit.ly/30GbNZS

Oral meal intake as a prognostic predictor of community-acquired pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The association between oral intake volume and prognosis has not been studied in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

METHODS

We retrospectively examined 503 hospitalized CAP patients to evaluate whether early-phase meal intake (EMI) (within the first 24 h after hospitalization) and maximum meal intake (MMI) (on the day during hospitalization) are useful prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Of the 503 patients, 40 (8.0%) died within 30 days. Area under the curve (AUC) for prognosis was comparable between EMI, A-DROP, and serum albumin [EMI: 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.84; A-DROP: 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83; Serum albumin: 0.72, 95% CI 0.64-0.79]. Mortality rate was <1% in patients with EMI ≥ 50%. Univariate analysis showed that patients with EMI < 50% showed poor prognosis [odds ratio 53.4, 95% CI 7.2-392.2]. Multivariate analysis showed that EMI was an independent prognostic predictor [odds ratio 23.6, 95% CI 3.11-179.7]. AUC of MMI for prognosis was 0.94 (95% CI 0.91-0.96); mortality rate was <1% for patients who ingested ≥50% of meals on any day during hospitalization. We defined ingesting ≥50% of meals on any day during hospitalization as oral intake stability. Multivariate analyses revealed an association between oral intake stability and prognosis. Odds ratio of oral intake stability for prognosis was higher than that of conventional evaluations (vital sign and CRP level stability). Fewer days were required to reach oral intake stability than to reach vital sign and CRP level stability.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral intake is a simple, non-invasive, cost-free, and powerful prognostic predictor for patients with CAP.

Short Term Home Oxygen Therapy for COVID-19 patients: The COVID-HOT algorithm

Innovative solutions are required to effectively address the unprecedented surge of demand on our healthcare systems created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Home treatment and monitoring of patients who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can be readily implemented to ameliorate the health system burden while maintaining safety and effectiveness of care. Such endeavor requires careful triage and coordination, telemedicine and technology support, workforce and education, as well as robust infrastructure. In the understandable paucity of evidence-based, protocolized approaches toward HOT for COVID-19 patients, our group has created the current document based on the cumulative experience of members of the Joint ACAIM-WACEM COVID-19 Clinical Management Taskforce. Utilizing available evidence-based resources and extensive front-line experience, the authors have suggested a pragmatic pathway for providing safe and effective home oxygen therapy in the community setting.

Splenic volume in pneumococcal pneumonia patients is associated with disease severity and mortality

Splenectomy is a risk factor for serious pneumococcal disease like overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI). In healthy individuals with small spleen, fulminant pneumococcal infection similar to OPSI has been reported. Furthermore, it is reported that small spleen was associated with severe pneumococcal infection patients treated in an intensive care unit. However, the association between the small spleen and pneumococcal pneumonia was not investigated enough. We retrospectively analyzed patients with pneumococcal pneumonia who underwent computed tomography examination with measurement of the splenic volume at Harasanshin Hospital between 2004 and 2019. Data on their background characteristics, laboratory findings, and clinical courses were collected. 413 patients were included in the final analysis. The splenic volume was significantly lower in the moderate (P < 0.001), severe (P < 0.00005), and extremely severe (P < 0.001) pneumonia groups compared with the mild pneumonia group. Furthermore, the splenic volume was significantly lower in patients died within 30 days of pneumonia treatment (median of 73.49 versus 110.77 cm³, P < 0.005) or during hospitalization (median of 71.69 versus 111.01 cm³, P < 0.0005). Splenic volume <40 cm³ was significantly associated with mortality within 30 days and total hospital mortality as a risk factor in univariate analysis. Splenic volume <40 cm³ was an independent risk factor for mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-21.1, P < 0.05) and total hospital mortality (odds ratio: 7.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.8-30.6, P < 0.01) in multivariate logistic regression analysis. These results suggest that small spleen is a risk factor for severity and mortality of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Developing and validating a multivariable prediction model for in-hospital mortality of pneumonia with advanced chronic kidney disease patients: a retrospective analysis using a nationwide database in Japan

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of pneumonia in patients with advanced stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unimproved for years. We attempt to develop a simple and more useful scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality for advanced CKD patients with pneumonia.

METHODS

Using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, we identified the in-hospital adult patients both with a record of pneumonia and stage 5 or 5D CKD as a comorbidity on admission between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2016. Predictive variable selection was analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis, stepwise method, LASSO method and random forest method, and then develop a new simple scoring system seeking for highest c-statistics combination of variables in one sample data set for model development. Finally, we compared c-statistics of univariate logistic regression about new scoring system with c-statistics about "A-DROP" in the other sample data set.

RESULT

We identified 8402 patients in 707 hospitals, and the total in-hospital mortality was 11.0% (437 patients) in development data set. Seven variables were selected, which includes age (male ≥ 70 years, female ≥ 75 years), respiratory failure, orientation disturbance, low blood pressure, the need of assistance in feeding or bowel control, severe or moderate thinness and CRP 200 mg/L or extent of consolidation on chest X-ray ≥ 2/3 of one lung. The c-statistics of univariate logistic regression was 0.8017 using seven variables, while that was 0.7372 using "A-DROP" CONCLUSION: In advanced CKD patients, if we select appropriate variables for predicting in-hospital mortality, simple scoring system may have better discrimination than "A-DROP".

Initial diagnosis and management of adult community-acquired pneumonia: a 5-day prospective study in Shanghai

Background

Despite the release of a national guideline in 2016, the actual practices with respect to adult community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remain unknown in China. We aimed to investigate CAP patient management practices in Shanghai to identify potential problems and provide evidence for policy making.

Methods

A short-period, 5-day prospective cross-sectional study was performed with sampled pulmonologists from 36 hospitals, encompassing all the administrative districts of Shanghai, during January 8–12, 2018. The medical information was recorded and analyzed for the patients with the diagnosis of CAP who were cared for by 46 pulmonologists during the study period.

Results

Overall, 435 patients were included in the final analysis, and 94.3% had a low risk of death in terms of CRB-65 criteria (C: disturbance of consciousness, R: respiratory rate, B: blood pressure, 65: age). When diagnosed with CAP, 70.1% of patients were not evaluated using the CURB-65 score (CRB-65 + U: urea nitrogen), but most patients (95.4%) were evaluated using CRB-65. Time to achieve clinical stability was longer in patients with hypoxemia than in those without hypoxemia (8.42±6.36 vs. 5.53±4.12 days, P=0.004). Overall, 84.4% of patients with a CRB-65 score of 0 were administered antibiotics intravenously, and 19.4% were still hospitalized after excluding hypoxemia and comorbidities. The average duration of antibiotic treatment was 10.4±4.9 days. Overall, 72.6% of patients received antibiotics covering atypical pathogens whose time to clinical stability was significantly shortened compared with those without coverage, but the antibiotic duration was similar and not correspondingly shortened.

Conclusions

CRB-65 seems to be more practical than CURB-65 for the initial evaluation of CAP in the context of local practice, and oxygenation assessment should be included in the evaluation of severity. Overtreatment may be relatively common in patients at low risk of death, including unreasonable hospitalization, intravenous administration, and antibiotic duration.

DECAF versus CURB-65 to Foresee Mortality among Patients Presenting with an Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Objective

To compare the precision of DECAF (Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidemia, Atrial Fibrillation) and CURB-65 scoring systems in prediction of mortality among patients presenting with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Material and methods

A prospective, cross-sectional study was done at the Department of Pulmonology, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan over a period of seven months, May 2019 through November 2019. Previously diagnosed patients of COPD (for more than six months), of either sex, aged between 40 and 70 years admitted primarily with an exacerbation were included in the study by non-probability consecutive sampling. Patients with myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease and malignancy were excluded. All relevant data including patients’ demography, history, examination, DECAF and CURB-65 scores and in-hospital mortality were recorded on a proforma and later analyzed by using SPSS, version 20.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn for comparison of accuracy of both scoring systems in prediction of in-hospital mortality (based on area under the curve (AUC)).

Results

There were 34 (29.8%) in-hospital mortalities while 80 (70.2%) survivals. AUC for DECAF score was 0.777 (0.673-0.881) and of CURB-65 was 0.715 (0.613-0.817) that reveals fair accuracy of the tests. Sensitivity of DECAF and CURB-65 scoring systems was almost similar i.e. 67.65% and 64.71% respectively, however DECAF was more specific than CURB-65 (86.25% compared to 68.75%, respectively).

Conclusion

The findings of our study suggest the use of a combination of scoring systems for prediction of in-hospital mortality in acute exacerbation of COPD based on appropriateness, access to facilities and clinician's preference.

Capturing the trends in hospital standardized mortality ratios for pneumonia: a retrospective observational study in Japan (2010 to 2018)

Background

Pneumonia has a high human toll and a substantial economic burden in developed countries like Japan, where the crude mortality rate was 77.7 per 100,000 people in 2017. As this trend is going to continue with increasing number of the elderly multi-morbid population in Japan; monitoring performance over time is a social need to alleviate the disease burden. The study objective was to determine the characteristics of hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) for pneumonia in Japan from 2010 to 2018 to describe this trend.

Methods

Data of the DPC (Diagnostic Procedures Combination) database were used, which is an administrative claims and discharge summary database for acute care in-patients in Japan. HSMRs were calculated using the actual and expected numbers of in-hospital deaths, the latter of which was calculated using logistic regression model, with a number of explanatory variables, e.g., age, sex, urgency of admission, mode of transportation, patient volume per month in each hospital, A-DROP score, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We constructed two HSMR models: a single-year model, which included hospitals with > 10 in-patients per month and, a 9-year model, which included those hospitals with complete 9-year data. Predictive accuracy of the logistic models was assessed using c-index (area under receiver operating curve).

Results

Total 230,372 patients were included for the analysis over the 9-year study period. Calculated HSMRs showed wide variation among hospitals. The proportion of hospitals with HSMR less than 100 increased from 36.4% in 2010 to 60.6% in 2018. Both models showed good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.762 for the 9-year model, and no less than 0.717 for the single-year model.

Conclusion

This study denoted that HSMRs of pneumonia can be calculated using DPC data in Japan and revealed significant variations among hospitals with comparable case-mixes. Therefore, HSMR can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel and to get a clear picture of where hospitals excel and lack.

Nasogastric Tube Feeding Versus Total Parenteral Nutrition in Older Dysphagic Patients with Pneumonia: Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Many older patients with pneumonia cannot intake orally after admission and may need nutritional care such as nasogastric tube feeding or total parenteral nutrition. This study sought to compare in-hospital outcomes between patients receiving nasogastric tube feeding and total parenteral nutrition.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A hospital-based database constructed by the Diagnosis Procedure Combination survey data comprising more than 100 acute-care hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included consecutive older inpatients aged >65 years admitted to participating hospitals with a diagnosis of pneumonia from 2014 through 2017.

MEASUREMENTS

We compared patients who received total parenteral nutrition and those who received nasogastric tube feeding in terms of characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Among the included inpatients, a total of 336 (73.2%) patients received total parenteral nutrition and 123 (26.8%) patients received nasogastric tube feeding. Patients with nasogastric tube feeding had less in-hospital mortality (13.8% vs 27.1%, p = 0.003) and a smaller number of complications (mean; 0.71 vs 1.44, p <0.001), shorter length of hospital stay (mean; 27.6 vs 48.9, p <0.001), more discharges home (72.4% vs 35.1%, p <0.001), and more discharges without oral intake (65.9% vs 45.8%, p <0.001) than patients with total parenteral nutrition. The same results were obtained in propensity score analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients with pneumonia treated with total parenteral nutrition were significantly more likely to have higher in-hospital mortality than those receiving nasogastric tube feeding.

E-selectin as a prognostic factor of patients hospitalized due to acute inflammatory respiratory diseases: a single institutional study

When examining patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases, it is difficult to distinguish between infectious pneumonia and interstitial pneumonia and predict patient prognosis at the beginning of treatment. In this study, we assessed whether endothelial selectin (E-selectin) predicts the outcome of patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases. We measured E-selectin serum levels in 101 patients who were admitted to our respiratory care unit between January 2013 and December 2013 because of acute inflammatory respiratory diseases that were eventually diagnosed as interstitial pneumonia (n = 38) and lower respiratory tract infection (n = 63). Seven of these patients (n = 101) died. The pneumonia severity score was significantly higher and the oxygen saturation of arterial blood measured by pulse oximeter (SpO₂)/fraction of inspiratory oxygen (FiO₂) was significantly lower in the deceased patients than in the surviving patients. There were significantly fewer peripheral lymphocytes and significantly higher E-selectin serum levels in the deceased patients than in the surviving patients. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the E-selectin serum levels and SpO₂/FiO₂ ratio were independent predictive factors of prognosis. The risk of death during acute respiratory disease was determined using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.871 as calculated from the ES, and the cutoff value was 6453.04 pg/ml, with a sensitivity of 1.00 and a specificity of 0.72 (p = 0.0027). E-selectin may be a useful biomarker for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases.

Mortality Predictive Scores for Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The use of severity score for the staging of pneumonias has emerged as a necessity for the physician caring for this disease. Although there are several established prognostic scoring systems for community-acquired pneumonia in adults, the availability for children are scarce.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently, scoring system for risk stratification of children with pneumonia were developed in low- and middle-income countries. They use clinical variables that represent known risk factors for severe outcomes of respiratory illness in children, such as hypoxemia, chest indrawing, refusal to feed, malnutrition, age, and stage of HIV disease among others factors. Although they showed good discriminating power and are very useful in low-resource settings, the characteristics of the patients, the local epidemiology of concurrent diseases, the social conditions, and the facilities of the hospitals make them not applicable to developed countries. A new prognostic scale for estimating mortality based on the modified PIRO scale used in adults with pneumonia can be useful for developed countries. Although several scoring systems for the estimation of mortality in childhood CAP were developed in the last years, most of them come from developing countries and the results are not applicable to patients with pneumonia in developed countries. Prospective studies applying scores adapted to the reality of the developed countries are needed.

A method for analyzing inpatient care variability through physicians' orders

OBJECTIVE

Administrators assess care variability through chart review or cost variability to inform care standardization efforts. Chart review is costly and cost variability is imprecise. This study explores the potential of physician orders as an alternative measure of care variability.

MATERIALS & METHODS

The authors constructed an order variability metric from adult Vanderbilt University Hospital patients treated between 2013 and 2016. The study compared how well a cost variability model predicts variability in the length of stay compared to an order variability model. Both models adjusted for covariates such as severity of illness, comorbidities, and hospital transfers.

RESULTS

The order variability model significantly minimized the Akaike information criterion (superior outcome) compared to the cost variability model. This result also held when excluding patients who received intensive care.

CONCLUSION

Order variability can potentially typify care variability better than cost variability. Order variability is a scalable metric, calculable during the course of care.

Previously-initiated hemodialysis as prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality in pneumonia patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease: Retrospective database study of Japanese hospitals

Background

Some clinicians keep patients in stage 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) without hemodialysis for a while. This study investigated whether previously-initiated hemodialysis in stage 5 CKD patients may become a prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality due to pneumonia.

Methods

Patient data were obtained from the multi-institutional diagnosis procedure combination database between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2016. The patients had records of pneumonia as both trigger and major diagnoses and records of end stage renal disease (ESRD) or stage 5 CKD as a comorbidity or other diagnoses on admission and aged 18 years or older. The following factors were adjusted: age, sex, body mass index, Barthel index, orientation disturbance, arterial oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein level or the extent of consolidation on chest radiography, ambulance use, hospitalization within 90 days, and comorbidities upon admission. The primary outcome measure was all-cause in-hospital mortality obtained via multivariable logistic regression analysis using four Models. Model 1 involved complete case analysis with overlapping; one hospitalization per patient was counted as one. Model 2 involved a complete case analysis without overlapping; only the first hospitalization per patient was counted. Model 3 involved multilevel analysis clustered by hospital codes. Model 4 was created after multiple imputation for lacking adjusted factors.

Results

A total of 907 hospitals and 7,726 patients were identified. Hemodialysis was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality in all models (odds ratio [OR] = 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54–0.87 in Model 1; OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55–0.91 in Model 2; OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52–0.86 in Model 3; and OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.54–0.87 in Model 4).

Conclusion

Previously-initiated hemodialysis may be an independent prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality in pneumonia patients with end-stage renal disease. This should be borne in mind when considering the time of initiation of dialysis.