Diabetes, mortality and coronary heart disease in the prospective Dubbo study of Australian elderly

The hemodynamic and pain impact of peripheral nerve block versus spinal anesthesia in diabetic patients undergoing diabetic foot surgery

PURPOSE

Comparison of hemodynamic profiles and pain scores in diabetic patients undergoing diabetic foot surgery receiving peripheral nerve block (PNB) or spinal anesthesia [subarachnoid block (SAB)].

METHODS

This was a prospective, randomised controlled trial. We recruited diabetic patients aged > 18 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists class II-III, who were scheduled for unilateral diabetic foot surgery below the knee. All patients were assessed for autonomic dysfunction using the Survey of Autonomic Symptoms score. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either PNB or SAB for the surgery. Hemodynamic data, including usage of vasopressors, were recorded at 5-min intervals for up to 1 h after the induction of anesthesia. Pain scores were recorded postoperatively, and follow-up was done via telephone 6 months later.

RESULTS

Compared to the PNB group, the SAB group had a larger number of patients with significant hypotension (14 vs. 1; p = 0.001) and more patients who required vasopressor boluses (6 vs. 0 patients). Compared to SAB group, the patients in the PNB group had a longer postoperative pain-free duration (9 vs. 4.54 h; p = 0.002) and lower pain scores 1 day after surgery (3.63 vs. 4.69; p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Peripheral nerve block should be considered, whenever possible, as the first option of anesthesia for lower limb surgery in diabetic patients as it provides hemodynamic stability and superior postoperative pain control compared to SAB.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical trial registry: ClinicalTrials.gov. ID NCT02727348.

Risk of all-cause and CHD mortality in women versus men with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have shown sex-specific differences in all-cause and CHD mortality in type 2 diabetes. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide a global picture of the estimated influence of type 2 diabetes on the risk of all-cause and CHD mortality in women vs men.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science for studies published from their starting dates to Aug 7, 2018. The sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and their pooled ratio (women vs men) of all-cause and CHD mortality associated with type 2 diabetes were obtained through an inverse variance-weighted random-effects meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The 35 analyzed prospective cohort studies included 2 314 292 individuals, among whom 254 038 all-cause deaths occurred. The pooled women vs men ratio of the HRs for all-cause and CHD mortality were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.12-1.23, I2 = 81.6%) and 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61, I2 = 86.4%), respectively. The pooled estimate of the HR for all-cause mortality was approximately 1.30 in articles in which the duration of follow-up was longer than 10 years and 1.10 in articles in which the duration of follow-up was less than 10 years. The pooled HRs for all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes was 2.33 (95% CI: 2.02-2.69) in women and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.72-2.12) in men, compared with their healthy counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of diabetes on all-cause and CHD mortality is approximately 17 and 97% greater, respectively, for women than for men.

Diabetic Cardiomyopathy: Impact of Biological Sex on Disease Development and Molecular Signatures

Diabetic cardiomyopathy refers to a unique set of heart-specific pathological variables induced by hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. Given that cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the world, and type 2 diabetes incidence continues to rise, understanding the complex interplay between these two morbidities and developing novel therapeutic strategies is vital. Two hallmark characteristics specific to diabetic cardiomyopathy are diastolic dysfunction and cardiac structural mal-adaptations, arising from cardiac cellular responses to the complex toxicity induced by hyperglycemia with or without hyperinsulinemia. While type 2 diabetes is more prevalent in men compared to women, cardiovascular risk is higher in diabetic women than in diabetic men, suggesting that diabetic women take a steeper path to cardiomyopathy and heart failure. Accumulating evidence from randomized clinical trials indicate that although pre-menopausal women have lower risk of CVDs, compared to age-matched men, this advantage is lost in diabetic pre-menopausal women, which suggests estrogen availability does not protect from increased cardiovascular risk. Notably, few human studies have assessed molecular and cellular mechanisms regarding similarities and differences in the progression of diabetic cardiomyopathy in men versus women. Additionally, most pre-clinical rodent studies fail to include female animals, leaving a void in available data to truly understand the impact of biological sex differences in diabetes-induced dysfunction of cardiovascular cells. Elegant reviews in the past have discussed in detail the roles of estrogen-mediated signaling in cardiovascular protection, sex differences associated with telomerase activity in the heart, and cardiac responses to exercise. In this review, we focus on the emerging cellular and molecular markers that define sex differences in diabetic cardiomyopathy based on the recent clinical and pre-clinical evidence. We also discuss miR-208a, MED13, and AT2R, which may provide new therapeutic targets with hopes to develop novel treatment paradigms to treat diabetic cardiomyopathy uniquely between men and women.

Sex, sex steroids, and diabetic cardiomyopathy: making the case for experimental focus

More than three decades ago, the Framingham study revealed that cardiovascular risk is elevated for all diabetics and that this jeopardy is substantially accentuated for women in particular. Numerous studies have subsequently documented worsened cardiac outcomes for women. Given that estrogen and insulin exert major regulatory effects through common intracellular signaling pathways prominent in maintenance of cardiomyocyte function, a sex-hormone:diabetic-disease interaction is plausible. Underlying aspects of female cardiovascular pathophysiology that exaggerate cardiovascular diabetic risk may be identified, including increased vulnerability to coronary microvascular disease, age-dependent impairment of insulin-sensitivity, and differential susceptibility to hyperglycemia. Since Framingham, considerable progress has been made in the development of experimental models of diabetic disease states, including a diversity of genetic rodent models. Ample evidence indicates that animal models of both type 1 and 2 diabetes variably recapitulate aspects of diabetic cardiomyopathy including diastolic and systolic dysfunction, and cardiac structural pathology including fibrosis, loss of compliance, and in some instances ventricular hypertrophy. Perplexingly, little of this work has explored the relevance and mechanisms of sexual dimorphism in diabetic cardiomyopathy. Only a small number of experimental studies have addressed this question, yet the prospects for gaining important mechanistic insights from further experimental enquiry are considerable. The case for experimental interrogation of sex differences, and of sex steroid influences in the aetiology of diabetic cardiomyopathy, is particularly compelling-providing incentive for future investigation with ultimate therapeutic potential.

Usefulness of fasting plasma glucose to predict mortality or coronary heart disease in persons > or = 60 years of age without diabetes mellitus or in those with undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (from The Dubbo Study)

The role of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels below diabetes "thresholds" in predicting mortality or coronary heart disease (CHD) is unclear. This study examines whether FPG predicts mortality or CHD in subjects without diabetes (historical or undiagnosed) or in those with undiagnosed diabetes (or lesser degrees of glucose intolerance). We have analyzed all-causes mortality and CHD incidence from a 16-year follow-up in a cohort of Australian senior citizens, 60 years and older, first examined in 1988-89. Diabetes was defined on historical grounds or by use of medication; undiagnosed diabetics were those without history but with FPG >124 mg/dl. Hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals of the specified outcomes were obtained from Cox models, with FPG being entered as a continuous variable. Mortality and CHD incidence rates in subjects with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes were substantially higher than in nondiabetics, but CHD rates were disproportionately higher in diabetic women. FPG did not significantly predict any outcome in men in the absence of diabetes. In women, FPG was a significant predictor of death (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.56) and CHD (hazard ratio 1.24, confidence interval 1.02 to 1.51) in the cohort, which included previous CVD but excluded all diabetes. In women with undiagnosed diabetes, FPG predicted death independently of previous CVD presence but did not predict CHD. In conclusion, FPG in the range of 95 to 108 mg/dl in a nondiabetic woman is still of prognostic importance for survival or CHD if she has previous CVD, whereas FPG is of prognostic importance for survival if she has undiagnosed diabetes. No similar findings were made in men.

Correlates of preclinical cardiovascular disease in Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians: a case control study

Background

The high frequency of premature death from cardiovascular disease in indigenous Australians is often attributed to the high prevalence of risk factors, especially type II diabetes mellitus (DM). We evaluated the relationship of ethnicity to atherosclerotic burden, as evidenced by carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), independent of risk factor status.

Methods

We studied 227 subjects (147 men; 50 ± 13 y): 119 indigenous subjects with (IDM, n = 54), and without DM (InDM, n = 65), 108 Caucasian subjects with (CDM, n = 52), and without DM (CnDM, n = 56). IMT was measured according to standard methods and compared with clinical data and cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

In subjects both with and without DM, IMT was significantly greater in indigenous subjects. There were no significant differences in gender, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) between any of the groups, and subjects with DM showed no difference in plasma HbA1c. Cardiovascular risk factors were significantly more prevalent in indigenous subjects. Nonetheless, ethnicity (β = -0.34; p < 0.0001), age (β = 0.48; p < 0.0001), and smoking (β = 0.13; p < 0.007) were independent predictors of IMT in multiple linear regression models.

Conclusion

Ethnicity appears to be an independent correlate of preclinical cardiovascular disease, even after correction for the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in indigenous Australians. Standard approaches to control currently known risk factors are vital to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease, but in themselves may be insufficient to fully address the high prevalence in this population.

Excess risk of fatal coronary heart disease associated with diabetes in men and women: meta-analysis of 37 prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the relative risk for fatal coronary heart disease associated with diabetes in men and women.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

DATA SOURCES

Studies published between 1966 and March 2005, identified through Embase and Medline, using a combined text word and MESH heading search strategy, in addition to studies from the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies were eligible if they had reported estimates of the relative risk for fatal coronary heart disease comparing men and women with and without diabetes. Studies were excluded if the estimates were not adjusted at least for age.

RESULTS

37 studies of type 2 diabetes and fatal coronary heart disease among a total of 447,064 patients were identified. The rate of fatal coronary heart disease was higher in patients with diabetes than in those without (5.4 v 1.6%). The overall summary relative risk for fatal coronary heart disease in patients with diabetes compared with no diabetes was significantly greater among women than it was among men: 3.50, 95% confidence interval 2.70 to 4.53 v 2.06, 1.81 to 2.34. After exclusion of the eight studies that had adjusted only for age, the difference in risk between the sexes was substantially reduced but still highly significant. The pooled ratio of the relative risks (women: men) from the 29 studies with multiple adjusted estimates was 1.46 (1.14 to 1.88).

CONCLUSIONS

The relative risk for fatal coronary heart disease associated with diabetes is 50% higher in women than it is in men. This greater excess coronary risk may be explained by more adverse cardiovascular risk profiles among women with diabetes, combined with possible disparities in treatment that favour men.

Cost effectiveness of preventive interventions in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic literature review

A systematic review of the literature was conducted to give an overview of economic evaluations of preventive interventions in type 2 diabetes mellitus. The interventions were sorted by type of preventive intervention (primary, secondary or tertiary) and by category (e.g. education, medication for hypertension). Several databases were searched for studies published between January 1990 and May 2004 on the three types of preventive intervention. For each study selected, inclusion of specific components from a standardised list of items, including quality, was recorded in a database. Summary tables were generated based on the database.A number of conclusions were drawn from this review. The most important was that strict blood pressure control was a more cost-effective intervention than less strict control, as shown by six studies reporting cost savings to very low costs per life-year gained. Primary and secondary prevention of type 2 diabetes were also highly cost effective, but these results were based on very few studies. Medications to reduce weight and hyperglycaemia together were cost effective compared with conventional interventions. Finally, the separate results regarding medications to reduce weight, hyperglycaemia and hypercholesterolaemia varied enormously, thus no conclusion could be drawn and further economic analysis is required.

Cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus : management strategies

There is an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with the general population as shown by epidemiologic studies measuring cardiovascular endpoints, as well as by autopsy, angiographic, and coronary calcification studies. Most of the excess CVD risk associated with type 1 diabetes is concentrated in the subset of approximately 35% of patients who develop diabetic nephropathy (after 20 years of diabetes duration), who also typically have dyslipidemias, elevated blood pressure, and hyperglycemia, factors contributing to CVD. For reasons that remain speculative, the relative risks from CVD are higher in women than in men with type 1 diabetes compared with the general population, which effectively eliminates the gender differences in CVD. As in the general population and in patients with type 2 diabetes, education and lifestyle changes, interventions to reduce hyperglycemia, blood pressure, micro-albuminuria, lipid control, and the use of aspirin are important management areas in order to reduce the increased risk of CVD. Whether management with aspirin and statins should be started in type 1 diabetic patients at a younger age or at a lower risk score than in the general population is still under investigation. There is a need for a better understanding of the pathophysiology of vascular complications in type 1 diabetes, more specific risk engines in type 1 diabetes, and accurate estimations of the absolute and relative risk for CVD in order to improve management of CVD in these high-risk patients.

Bedingungen der Erhaltung und Förderung von Selbstständigkeit im höheren Lebensalter (SIMA)

Zusammenfassung: Im Rahmen der 1991 begonnenen Längsschnittstudie SIMA wurde die Mortalität der Teilnehmer zwischen 1991 und 1998 verfolgt. Die Teilnehmer lebten bei Studienbeginn selbstständig und waren zwischen 75 und 93 Jahren bzw. im Mittel 79.5±3.5 Jahre alt. Bis Ende 1998 verstarben von 340 Teilnehmern 99 (29.1%). In multivariaten Risikoanalysen (Cox Regression) wurden signifikante medizinische und psychologische Risikofaktoren bestätigt, wobei es sich auf der medizinischen Seite jeweils um Diagnosen, auf der psychologischen Seite um Leistungen unter dem Median der Gesamtgruppe handelte. Bei Studienbeginn war das höchste Mortalitätsrisiko verbunden mit Rauchen, geringer Aktivität beim Selbstständigbleiben, Diabetes mellitus, subjektiv als eingeschränkt bewerteter Gesundheit, geringer körperlicher Leistungsfähigkeit, koronarer Herzerkrankung, reduzierter kognitiver Geschwindigkeit und hoher Multimorbidität. Das heißt, eine hohe Multimorbidität oder einzelne typische Erkrankungen waren nicht die ausschließlichen Mortalitätsrisiken im höheren Lebensalter. Insbesondere Defizite in geistig-körperlichen Aktivitäten und eine ausgeprägte kognitive Verlangsamung erwiesen sich für eine Erhöhung des Mortalitätsrisikos als ebenso bedeutsam.

Bedingungen der Erhaltung und Förderung von Selbstständigkeit im höheren Lebensalter (SIMA)

Zusammenfassung: Im Rahmen der 1991 begonnenen Längsschnittstudie SIMA wurde die Entwicklung der Selbstständigkeit der Teilnehmer zwischen 1991 und 1998 verfolgt. Für insgesamt 340 der ursprünglich 375 Teilnehmer ließ sich bis Ende 1998 der Status im Hinblick auf Unselbstständigkeit, Demenz und Mortalität ermitteln. Die Teilnehmer lebten bei Studienbeginn selbstständig und waren zwischen 75 und 93 Jahren bzw. im Mittel 79,5 ± 3,5 Jahre alt. In multivariaten Risikoanalysen (Cox Regression) wurden signifikante medizinische und psychologische Risikofaktoren bestätigt. Als hoch signifikante Unselbstständigkeitsrisiken erwiesen sich Apoplex, Depression, eine submediane subjektive Bewertung der Befindlichkeit sowie spezifische Gedächtnisdefizite. Als bedeutendste Demenzrisiken ließen sich verschiedene kognitive Leistungsdefizite und das Vorliegen einer Frühsymptomatik identifizieren. Die höchsten Zusammenhänge mit der Mortalität wiesen Rauchen, Diabetes mellitus sowie jeweils eine subjektive Bewertung der Gesundheit und eine körperliche Leistungsfähigkeit unter dem Gruppenmedian auf. Die Befunde der SIMA-Studie zeigen, dass weder eine hohe Multimorbidität noch einzelne typische Erkrankungen die ausschließlichen Unselbstständigkeits-, Demenz- oder Mortalitätsrisiken im höheren Lebensalter darstellen. Die gleichzeitige Bedeutung psychologischer Risikofaktoren, z. B. von Einschränkungen in der Befindlichkeit oder Defiziten in visuellen Gedächtnisleistungen bzw. der kognitiven Geschwindigkeit, sowie eines Mangels an körperlichen Aktivitäten dokumentiert zudem, dass einer Unselbstständigkeit und möglicherweise auch einer Demenz durch ein multimodales Trainingsprogramm erfolgreich begegnet werden kann.

Subjective health measures and acute treatment outcomes in geriatric depression

BACKGROUND

Prior research suggests that elderly patients are less likely to respond to antidepressant treatment if they have low self-rated health. However, successful treatment for depression has been associated with improvement in self-rated health and other health measures.

OBJECTIVES

To examine measures of self-rated health, physical disability, and social function as predictors of treatment response in late-life depression, and to assess these same health measures as treatment outcomes. We hypothesized that greater impairment in these measures would predict poorer treatment response, and that these measures would show significant improvements with recovery from depression.

METHOD

Subjects were enrolled in a depression intervention study for people aged 60 and older with recurrent unipolar major depression; they were assessed with measures of self-rated health, physical disability, and social functioning at baseline and at the end of treatment. Baseline measures were compared between the 88 remitters, 11 non-remitters, and seven dropouts. Additionally, changes in the measures were examined in subjects who recovered from the index depressive episode.

RESULTS

Subjects with poorer self-rated health at baseline were more likely both to drop out of treatment and to not respond to adequate treatment. This relationship was independent of demographic measures, severity of depression, physical and social functioning, medical illness, personality, hopelessness, overall medication use, and side effects or non-compliance with treatment.

CONCLUSION

Although this finding is preliminary because of the small number of dropouts and non-remitters, it suggests that lower self-rated health may independently predict premature discontinuation of treatment for depression. Additionally, subjects who recovered from depression showed significant improvements in self-rated health, physical disability, and social functioning.

Predictors of macrovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE

To assess the importance of classic and nonclassic risk factors in the development of coronary artery disease (CAD) or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this community-based, prospective cohort study, quantitative measurements for cholesterol, triglycerides (TGs), glucose, and lipoprotein(a) detected as a sinking pre-beta-lipoprotein band on electrophoresis were obtained from 1968 through 1982 from 449 patients who were free of CAD and CVD but had type 2 DM. Demographic data and covariables obtained were age, body mass index, duration of diabetes, sex, smoking, and hypertension. The relationship of individual continuous factors to the development of CAD and CVD as well as multivariate models were evaluated with use of the Cox proportional hazards model. The primary outcome was to determine which risk factors are associated with development of CAD or CVD in patients with type 2 DM.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 13 years, 216 CAD and 115 CVD events had developed. The hazard ratio estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CAD after multivariate analysis were significant for age, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.27-1.67); fasting glucose levels at enrollment, 1.63 (95% CI, 1.17-2.25); smoking, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.10-1.91); and TGs, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.15-1.92). The hazard ratio estimates for CVD were significant for age, 1.95 (95% CI, 1.59-2.38); hypertension, 1.89 (95% CI, 1.30-2.74); fasting glucose levels at enrollment, 1.69 (95% CI, 1.06-2.70); and smoking, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.07-2.30).

CONCLUSION

In diabetic patients, age, fasting glucose levels, smoking, and TG levels are independent risk factors for development of CAD events. Age, hypertension, glucose, and smoking predicted development of CVD events.

All-cause mortality in the Canterbury (New Zealand) insulin-treated Diabetic Registry population

OBJECTIVE

To establish all-cause death rates and life expectancies of and risk factors for mortality in insulin-treated diabetic individuals living in Canterbury, New Zealand.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Insulin-treated diabetic subjects (n = 1,008) on the Canterbury Diabetes Registry were tracked over 9 years, and their vital status was determined. Death rates were standardized using direct and indirect methods. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to model the effects of demographic and clinical covariates on survival time.

RESULTS

At study entry, age ranged from 2.9 to 92.7 years, with mean 48.7 +/- 20.4 years; age at diagnosis was 0.2-88.9 years, mean 34.5 +/- 20.0 years; and duration of diabetes was 0.1-58.5 years, mean 14.0 +/- 10.6 years. There were 303 deaths in 7,372 person-years of follow-up with a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 2.6 (95% CI 2.4-3.0). Relative mortality was greatest for those aged 30-39 years (SMR 9.2 [4.8-16.2]). The death rate for the diabetic cohort standardized against the Segi world standard population was 16.2 per 1,000. Attained age, sex, and clinical subtype were significant predictors of mortality The SMR for subjects with type 1 diabetes and age at onset <30 years was 3.7 (CI 2.7-5.0), 2.2 (1.8-2.6) for those with onset > or =30 years, and 3.1 (2.5-3.7) for subjects suspected of having latent autoimmune diabetes in adulthood or insulin-treated type 2 diabetes. Life expectancy was reduced for both sexes at all ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates for insulin-treated diabetic individuals remain high, resulting in shortened life spans relative to the general population. Marked differences in mortality exist between clinical groups of subjects. Further research is needed to improve diabetes classification and to clarify differences in health outcomes.

Fasting plasma glucose in non-diabetic elderly women predicts increased all-causes mortality and coronary heart disease risk

AIM

To confirm the hypothesis that upper normal plasma glucose levels in non-diabetic subjects are independently predictive of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

The study reports on 113 months' follow-up in a prospective study of CVD in the Australian elderly, The Dubbo Study. The cohort, first examined in 1988-89, consisted of 2805 men and women 60 years and older. Of the cohort, 2419 (86%) were defined as non-diabetic. The prediction of outcomes by quartile of fasting plasma glucose was examined in a Cox proportional hazards model, after linkage to hospital and death records.

RESULTS

All-causes mortality increased progressively across quartile of fasting plasma glucose in both sexes, reaching statistical significance only in women. Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence increased similarly, the increases being proportionately greater in women. Ischaemic stroke did not show a consistent gradient with fasting plasma glucose. After adjustment for age and other risk factors, all-causes mortality, CHD and ischaemic stroke incidence were not significantly related to plasma glucose in men. In women, all-causes mortality and CHD incidence showed a significant gradient with glucose quartile. Hazard Ratio (95% confidence intervals) for death in glucose Quartile IV (5.3-6.0 mmol/L) was 1.49 (1.03-2.14) and for CHD incidence was 1.52 (1.08-2.15). Subjects in the upper quartiles of fasting plasma glucose showed a clustering of overweight, hypertension, elevated serum triglycerides, reduced high density lipoprotein cholesterol and excess of small dense low density lipoprotein, suggestive of the Insulin Resistance Syndrome.

CONCLUSION

Fasting plasma glucose levels in the upper normal range in non-diabetic elderly subjects appear to be associated with increased all-causes mortality and CHD, especially in women.

Risk factors for ischemic stroke: Dubbo Study of the elderly

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

One in 10 deaths in Australia is due to stroke. The predictors of ischemic stroke have not been well defined, although hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and previous stroke have been consistently reported. We report on 98 months' follow-up in a prospective study of cardiovascular disease in the Australian elderly, the Dubbo Study.

METHODS

The cohort, first examined in 1988, was composed of 2805 men and women 60 years and older. The prediction of ischemic stroke by potential risk factors was examined in a Cox proportional hazards model, after linkage to hospital and death records.

RESULTS

Three hundred six men and women manifested an ischemic stroke event (ICD-9-CM 433 to 437), and 95 subjects suffered a fatal stroke event. In the multivariate model, the significant independent predictors of stroke were advancing age, female sex (48% lower risk), being married (30% lower risk), prior history of stroke (227% higher risk), use of antihypertensive drugs (37% higher risk), belonging to the highest category of blood pressure reading (67% higher risk), presence of atrial fibrillation (58% higher risk), HDL cholesterol (36% lower risk for each 1-mmol/L increment), impaired peak expiratory flow (77% higher risk for tertile I than for tertile III), physical disability (59% higher risk), and depression score (41% higher risk for tertile III than for tertile I).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that morbidity and mortality associated with ischemic stroke can be predicted by various clinical indicators, some of which may be amenable to intervention. The matters of impaired peak expiratory flow, depression score, and ischemic stroke require further study.

Alcohol intake and survival in the elderly: a 77 month follow-up in the Dubbo study

BACKGROUND

A prospective study in non-institutionalised Australian elderly aged 60 years and over commenced in Dubbo, NSW in 1988.

AIM

To examine the relationship between all-causes mortality and alcohol intake.

METHODS

The data were derived from a community-based sample comprising 1236 men and 1569 women followed for a median period of 77 months. Regular alcohol intake was reported by 78% of men and 52% of women. Eighty-seven per cent of men and 44% of women primarily drank beer.

RESULTS

Death occurred in 305 men and 236 women, 34% and 39% respectively from coronary heart disease (CHD). In a proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-causes mortality in male drinkers, compared with abstainers, was 0.75 at one-seven drinks/week, 0.76 at eight-14 drinks/week, 0.69 at 15-28 drinks/week and 0.49 at > 28 drinks/week (p < 0.04), an inverse relationship. In female drinkers, HR was 0.78 at one-seven drinks/week, 0.49 at eight-14 drinks/week (p < 0.04) and 0.62 at 15-28 drinks/weeks, potentially a U shaped relationship. The effect on all-causes mortality could not be attributed to a differential effect of beer versus wine/spirit intake. Although the mortality rate was lower in those taking any alcohol compared with abstainers, those taking any alcohol exhibited an increased proportion of deaths due to cancer at the expense of a reduced proportion of CHD and stroke deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol intake in the Dubbo elderly appears to be independently associated with a significant increase in life expectancy. Mechanisms underlying the effect may emerge at a longer interval of follow-up.