Allee effects in biological invasions

Dynamics and control of two-dimensional discrete-time biological model incorporating weak Allee's effect

Incorporating a weak Allee effect in a two-dimensional biological model in ℜ2, the study delves into the application of bifurcation theory, including center manifold and Ljapunov-Schmidt reduction, normal form theory, and universal unfolding, to analyze nonlinear stability issues across various engineering domains. The focus lies on the qualitative dynamics of a discrete-time system describing the interaction between prey and predator. Unlike its continuous counterpart, the discrete-time model exhibits heightened chaotic behavior. By exploring a biological Mmdel with linear functional prey response, the research elucidates the local asymptotic properties of equilibria. Additionally, employing bifurcation theory and the center manifold theorem, the analysis reveals that, for all α1 (i.e., intrinsic growth rate of prey), ð1˙ (i.e., parameter that scales the terms yn), and m (i.e., Allee effect constant), the model exhibits boundary fixed points A1 and A2, along with the unique positive fixed point A∗, given that the all parameters are positive. Additionally, stability theory is employed to explore the local dynamic characteristics, along with topological classifications, for the fixed points A1, A2, and A∗, considering the impact of the weak Allee effect on prey dynamics. A flip bifurcation is identified for the boundary fixed point A2, and a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation is observed in a small parameter neighborhood around the unique positive fixed point A∗=(mð1˙-1,α1-1-α1mð1˙-1). Furthermore, it implements two chaos control strategies, namely, state feedback and a hybrid approach. The effectiveness of these methods is demonstrated through numerical simulations, providing concrete illustrations of the theoretical findings. The model incorporates essential elements of population dynamics, considering interactions such as predation, competition, and environmental factors, along with a weak Allee effect influencing the prey population.

Emergence of power-law distributions in self-segregation reaction-diffusion processes

Many natural or human-made systems encompassing local reactions and diffusion processes exhibit spatially distributed patterns of some relevant dynamical variable. These interactions, through self-organization and critical phenomena, give rise to power-law distributions, where emergent patterns and structures become visible across vastly different scales. Recent observations reveal power-law distributions in the spatial organization of, e.g., tree clusters and forest patch sizes. Crucially, these patterns do not follow a spatially periodic order but rather a statistical one. Unlike the spatially periodic patterns elucidated by the Turing mechanism, the statistical order of these particular vegetation patterns suggests an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, we present a self-segregation mechanism, driving the emergence of power-law scalings in pattern-forming systems. The model incorporates an Allee-logistic reaction term, responsible for the local growth, and a nonlinear diffusion process accounting for positive interactions and limited resources. According to a self-organized criticality (SOC) principle, after an initial decrease, the system mass reaches an analytically predictable threshold, beyond which it self-segregates into distinct clusters, due to local positive interactions that promote cooperation. Numerical investigations show that the distribution of cluster sizes obeys a power law with an exponential cutoff.

Cooperative growth in microbial communities is a driver of multistability

Microbial communities often exhibit more than one possible stable composition for the same set of external conditions. In the human microbiome, these persistent changes in species composition and abundance are associated with health and disease states, but the drivers of these alternative stable states remain unclear. Here we experimentally demonstrate that a cross-kingdom community, composed of six species relevant to the respiratory tract, displays four alternative stable states each dominated by a different species. In pairwise coculture, we observe widespread bistability among species pairs, providing a natural origin for the multistability of the full community. In contrast with the common association between bistability and antagonism, experiments reveal many positive interactions within and between community members. We find that multiple species display cooperative growth, and modeling predicts that this could drive the observed multistability within the community as well as non-canonical pairwise outcomes. A biochemical screening reveals that glutamate either reduces or eliminates cooperativity in the growth of several species, and we confirm that such supplementation reduces the extent of bistability across pairs and reduces multistability in the full community. Our findings provide a mechanistic explanation of how cooperative growth rather than competitive interactions can underlie multistability in microbial communities.

Chaos and extinction risks of sexually reproductive generalist top predator in a seasonally forced food chain system with Allee effect

This paper investigates the dynamics of a tritrophic food chain model incorporating an Allee effect, sexually reproductive generalist top predators, and Holling type IV and Beddington-DeAngelis functional responses for interactions across different trophic levels. Analytically, we explore the feasible equilibria, their local stability, and various bifurcations, including Hopf, saddle-node, transcritical, and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations. Numerical findings suggest that higher Allee intensity in prey growth leads to the inability of species coexistence, resulting in a decline in species density. Likewise, a lower reproduction rate and a higher strength of intraspecific competition among top predators also prevent the coexistence of species. Conversely, a rapid increase in the reproduction rate and a decrease in the strength of intraspecific competition among top predators enhance the densities of prey and top predators while decreasing intermediate predator density. We also reveal the presence of bistability and tristability phenomena within the system. Furthermore, we extend our autonomous model to its nonautonomous counterpart by introducing seasonally perturbed parameters. Numerical analysis of the nonautonomous model reveals that higher seasonal strength in the reproduction rate and intraspecific competition of top predators induce chaotic behavior, which is also confirmed by the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Additionally, we observe that seasonality may lead to the extinction of species from the ecosystem. Factors such as the Allee effect and growth rate of prey can cause periodicity in population densities. Understanding these trends is critical for controlling changes in population density within the ecosystem. Ecologists, environmentalists, and policymakers stand to benefit significantly from the invaluable insights garnered from this study. Specifically, our findings offer pivotal guidance for shaping future strategies aimed at safeguarding biodiversity and maintaining ecological stability amidst changing environmental conditions. By contributing to the existing body of knowledge, our study advances the field of ecological science, enhancing the comprehension of predator-prey dynamics across diverse ecological conditions.

Population genomics of the invasive Northern Giant Hornet Vespa mandarinia in North America and across its native range

The northern giant hornet Vespa mandarinia (NGH) is a voracious predator of other insect species, including honey bees. NGH's native range spans subtropical and temperate regions across much of east and southeast Asia and, in 2019, exotic populations of the species were discovered in North America. Despite this broad range and invasive potential, investigation of the population genomic structure of NGH across its native and introduced ranges has thus far been limited to a small number of mitochondrial samples. Here, we present analyses of genomic data from NGH individuals collected across the species' native range and from exotic individuals collected in North America. We provide the first survey of whole-genome population variation for any hornet species, covering this species' native and invasive ranges, and in doing so confirm likely origins in Japan and South Korea for the two introductions. We additionally show that, while this introduced population exhibited strongly elevated levels of inbreeding, these signatures of inbreeding are also present in some long-standing native populations, which may indicate that inbreeding depression alone is insufficient to prevent the persistence of NGH populations. As well as highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and eradication efforts to limit the spread of this species outside of its natural range, our data will serve as a foundational database for future genomic studies into introduced hornet populations.

Spread and persistence for integro-difference equations with shifting habitat and strong Allee effect

We study an integro-difference equation model that describes the spatial dynamics of a species with a strong Allee effect in a shifting habitat. We examine the case of a shifting semi-infinite bad habitat connected to a semi-infinite good habitat. In this case we rigorously establish species persistence (non-persistence) if the habitat shift speed is less (greater) than the asymptotic spreading speed of the species in the good habitat. We also examine the case of a finite shifting patch of hospitable habitat, and find that the habitat shift speed must be less than the asymptotic spreading speed associated with the habitat and there is a critical patch size for species persistence. Spreading speeds and traveling waves are established to address species persistence. Our numerical simulations demonstrate the theoretical results and show the dependence of the critical patch size on the shift speed.

Genetic relatedness can alter the strength of plant-soil interactions

PREMISE

Intraspecific variation may play a key role in shaping the relationships between plants and their interactions with soil microbial communities. The soil microbes of individual plants can generate intraspecific variation in the responsiveness of the plant offspring, yet have been much less studied. To address this need, we explored how the relatedness of seedlings from established clones of Solidago altissima altered the plant-soil interactions of the seedlings.

METHODS

Seedlings of known parentage were generated from a series of 24 clones grown in a common garden. Seedlings from these crosses were inoculated with soils from maternal, paternal, or unrelated clones and their performance compared to sterilized control inocula.

RESULTS

We found that soil inocula influenced by S. altissima clones had an overall negative effect on seedling biomass. Furthermore, seedlings inoculated with maternal or paternal soils tended to experience larger negative effects than seedlings inoculated with unrelated soils. However, there was much variation among individual crosses, with not all responding to relatedness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data argue that genetic relatedness to the plant from which the soil microbial inoculum was obtained may cause differential impacts on establishing seedlings, encouraging the regeneration of non-kin adjacent to established clones. Such intraspecific variation represents a potentially important source of heterogeneity in plant-soil microbe interactions with implications for maintaining population genetic diversity.

Variation in environmental stochasticity dramatically affects viability and extinction time in a predator-prey system with high prey group cohesion

Understanding how tipping points arise is critical for population protection and ecosystem robustness. This work evaluates the impact of environmental stochasticity on the emergence of tipping points in a predator-prey system subject to the Allee effect and Holling type IV functional response, modeling an environment in which the prey has high group cohesion. We analyze the relationship between stochasticity and the probability and time that predator and prey populations in our model tip between different steady states. We evaluate the safety from extinction of different population values for each species, and accordingly assign extinction warning levels to these population values. Our analysis suggests that the effects of environmental stochasticity on tipping phenomena are scenario-dependent but follow a few interpretable trends. The probability of tipping towards a steady state in which one or both species go extinct generally monotonically increased with noise intensity, while the probability of tipping towards a more favorable steady state (in which more species were viable) usually peaked at intermediate noise intensity. For tipping between two equilibria where a given species was at risk of extinction in one equilibrium but not the other, noise affecting that species had greater impact on tipping probability than noise affecting the other species. Noise in the predator population facilitated quicker tipping to extinction equilibria, whereas prey noise instead often slowed down extinction. Changes in warning level for initial population values due to noise were most apparent near attraction basin boundaries, but noise of sufficient magnitude (especially in the predator population) could alter risk even far away from these boundaries. Our model provides critical theoretical insights for the conservation of population diversity: management criteria and early warning signals can be developed based on our results to keep populations away from destructive critical thresholds.

Prolonged delays in human microbiota transmission after a controlled antibiotic perturbation

Humans constantly encounter new microbes, but few become long-term residents of the adult gut microbiome. Classical theories predict that colonization is determined by the availability of open niches, but it remains unclear whether other ecological barriers limit commensal colonization in natural settings. To disentangle these effects, we used a controlled perturbation with the antibiotic ciprofloxacin to investigate the dynamics of gut microbiome transmission in 22 households of healthy, cohabiting adults. Colonization was rare in three-quarters of antibiotic-taking subjects, whose resident strains rapidly recovered in the week after antibiotics ended. In contrast, the remaining antibiotic-taking subjects exhibited lasting responses, with extensive species losses and transient expansions of potential opportunistic pathogens. These subjects experienced elevated rates of commensal colonization, but only after long delays: many new colonizers underwent sudden, correlated expansions months after the antibiotic perturbation. Furthermore, strains that had previously transmitted between cohabiting partners rarely recolonized after antibiotic disruptions, showing that colonization displays substantial historical contingency. This work demonstrates that there remain substantial ecological barriers to colonization even after major microbiome disruptions, suggesting that dispersal interactions and priority effects limit the pace of community change.

More complex dynamics in a discrete prey-predator model with the Allee effect in prey

In this paper, we revisit a discrete prey-predator model with the Allee effect in prey to find its more complex dynamical properties. After pointing out and correcting those known errors for the local stability of the unique positive fixed point $ E_*, $ unlike previous studies in which the author only considered the codim 1 Neimark-Sacker bifurcation at the fixed point $ E_*, $ we focus on deriving many new bifurcation results, namely, the codim 1 transcritical bifurcation at the trivial fixed point $ E_1, $ the codim 1 transcritical and period-doubling bifurcations at the boundary fixed point $ E_2, $ the codim 1 period-doubling bifurcation and the codim 2 1:2 resonance bifurcation at the positive fixed point $ E_* $. The obtained theoretical results are also further illustrated via numerical simulations. Some new dynamics are numerically found. Our new results clearly demonstrate that the occurrence of 1:2 resonance bifurcation confirms that this system is strongly unstable, indicating that the predator and the prey will increase rapidly and breakout suddenly.

Take me for a ride: Herbivores can facilitate plant reinvasions

Herbivores shape plant invasions through impacts on demography and dispersal, yet only demographic mechanisms are well understood. Although herbivores negatively impact demography by definition, they can affect dispersal either negatively (e.g., seed consumption), or positively (e.g., caching). Exploring the nuances of how herbivores influence spatial spread will improve the forecasting of plant movement on the landscape. Here, we aim to understand how herbivores impact how fast plant populations spread through varying impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We strive to determine whether, and under what conditions, we see net positive effects of herbivores, in order to find scenarios where herbivores can help to promote spread. We draw on classic invasion theory to develop a stage-structured integrodifference equation model that incorporates herbivore impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We simulate seven herbivore "syndromes" (combinations of demographic and/or dispersal effects) drawn from the literature to understand how increasing herbivore pressure alters plant spreading speed. We find that herbivores with solely negative effects on plant demography or dispersal always slow plant spreading speed, and that the speed slows monotonically as herbivore pressure increases. However, we also find that plant spreading speed can be hump shaped with respect to herbivore pressure: plants spread faster in the presence of herbivores (for low herbivore pressure) and then slower (for high herbivore pressure). This result is robust, occurring across all syndromes in which herbivores have a positive effect on plant dispersal, and is a sign that the positive effects of herbivores on dispersal can outweigh their negative effects on demography. For all syndromes we find that sufficiently high herbivore pressure results in population collapse. Thus, our findings show that herbivores can speed up or slow down plant spread. These insights allow for a greater understanding of how to slow invasions, facilitate native species recolonization, and shape range shifts with global change.

Factors affecting establishment and population growth of the invasive weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a highly invasive weed. Identifying the characteristics and the factors influencing its establishment and population growth may help to identify high invasion risk areas and facilitate monitoring and prevention efforts. Six typical habitats: river banks, forests, road margins, farmlands, grasslands, and wastelands, were selected from the main distribution areas of A. artemisiifolia in the Yili Valley, China. Six propagule quantities of A. artemisiifolia at 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 seeds m-2 were seeded by aggregation, and dispersion in an area without A. artemisiifolia. Using establishment probability models and Allee effect models, we determined the minimum number of seeds and plants required for the establishment and population growth of A. artemisiifolia, respectively. We also assessed the moisture threshold requirements for establishment and survival, and the influence of native species. The influence of propagule pressure on the establishment of A. artemisiifolia was significant. The minimum number of seeds required varied across habitats, with the lowest being 60 seeds m-2 for road margins and the highest being 398 seeds for forests. The minimum number of plants required for population growth in each habitat was 5 and the largest number was 43 in pasture. The aggregation distribution of A. artemisiifolia resulted in a higher establishment and survival rate. The minimum soil volumetric water content required for establishment was significantly higher than that required for survival. The presence of native dominant species significantly reduced the establishment and survival rate of A. artemisiifolia. A. artemisiifolia has significant habitat selectivity and is more likely to establish successfully in a habitat with aggregated seeding with sufficient water and few native species. Establishment requires many seeds but is less affected by the Allee effect after successful establishment, and only a few plants are needed to ensure reproductive success and population growth in the following year. Monitoring should be increased in high invasion risk habitats.

Multiple origins define the genetic structure of tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon in the colombian Caribbean Sea

The tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon is a native species of the Indo-Pacific Ocean that was introduced to promote its cultivation in several American countries, including Colombia. As a result of inappropriate aquaculture practices, it has established itself in the wild in almost all the Colombian Caribbean Sea. To evaluate the genetic diversity, population structure, and origin of the founder populations, samples from three sites in the Colombian Caribbean were analyzed from 10 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA Control Region. Genetic diversity similar to native populations was found to be present in three relatively discrete populations and their origin is related to natural populations from Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan and China. We discuss how oceanographic conditions and culture systems of tiger shrimp facilitated the success of biological invasion processes in marine ecosystems of the Colombian Caribbean.

Could non-native species boost their chances of invasion success by socializing with natives?

Most invasions start with the introduction of a few individuals and the majority fail to establish and become invasive populations. A possible explanation for this is that some species are subject to Allee effects-disadvantages of low densities-and fail to perform vital activities due to the low availability of conspecifics. We propose that 'facilitation' from native individuals to non-natives through heterospecific sociability could enhance chances of the latter establishing in novel environments by helping them avoid Allee effects and even reducing the minimum number of non-native individuals necessary to achieve the density for a viable population (the Allee effect threshold). There is evidence from experiments carried out with freshwater fish, snails, lizards, mussels and bird that supports the idea of heterospecific sociability between native and non-native species as a process to promote invasion success. We propose that to understand invasion success in social non-native species we need to investigate how they integrate into the recipient community. Furthermore, to manage them, it may be necessary to reduce population density not just below the Allee effect threshold but also to understand how natives could help them shift the conspecific Allee effect threshold to their benefit. This article is part of the theme issue 'Mixed-species groups and aggregations: shaping ecological and behavioural patterns and processes'.

Invasion potential of hornets (Hymenoptera: Vespidae: Vespa spp.)

Hornets are large, predatory wasps that have the potential to alter biotic communities and harm honey bee colonies once established in non-native locations. Mated, diapausing females (gynes) can easily be transported to new habitats, where their behavioral flexibility allows them to found colonies using local food and nest materials. Of the 22 species in the genus Vespa, five species are now naturalized far from their endemic populations and another four have been detected either in nature or during inspections at borders of other countries. By far the most likely pathway of long-distance dispersal is the transport of gynes in transoceanic shipments of goods. Thereafter, natural dispersal of gynes in spring and accidental local transport by humans cause shorter-range expansions and contribute to the invasion process. Propagule pressure of hornets is unquantified, although it is likely low but unrelenting. The success of introduced populations is limited by low propagule size and the consequences of genetic founder effects, including the extinction vortex linked to single-locus, complementary sex determination of most hymenopterans. Invasion success is enhanced by climatic similarity between source locality and introduction site, as well as genetic diversity conferred by polyandry in some species. These and other factors that may have influenced the successful establishment of invasive populations of V. velutina, V. tropica, V. bicolor, V. orientalis, and V. crabro are discussed. The highly publicized detections of V. mandarinia in North America and research into its status provide a real-time example of an unfolding hornet invasion.

Genetic analysis reveals the putative native range and widespread double-clonal reproduction in the invasive longhorn crazy ant

Clonal reproduction can provide an advantage for invasive species to establish as it can circumvent inbreeding depression which often plagues introduced populations. The world's most widespread invasive ant, Paratrechina longicornis, was previously found to display a double-clonal reproduction system, whereby both males and queens are produced clonally, resulting in separate male and queen lineages, while workers are produced sexually. Under this unusual reproduction mode, inbreeding is avoided in workers as they carry hybrid interlineage genomes. Despite the ubiquitous distribution of P. longicornis, the significance of this reproductive system for the ant's remarkable success remains unclear, as its prevalence is still unknown. Further investigation into the controversial native origin of P. longicornis is also required to reconstruct the evolutionary histories of double-clonal lineages. Here, we examine genetic variation and characterize the reproduction mode of P. longicornis populations sampled worldwide using microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA sequences to infer the ant's putative native range and the distribution of the double-clonal reproductive system. Analyses of global genetic variations indicate that the Indian subcontinent is a genetic diversity hotspot of this species, suggesting that P. longicornis probably originates from this geographical area. Our analyses revealed that both the inferred native and introduced populations exhibit double-clonal reproduction, with queens and males around the globe belonging to two separate, nonrecombining clonal lineages. By contrast, workers are highly heterozygous because they are first-generation interlineage hybrids. Overall, these data indicate a worldwide prevalence of double clonality in P. longicornis and support the prediction that the unusual genetic system may have pre-adapted this ant for global colonization by maintaining heterozygosity in the worker force and alleviating genetic bottlenecks.

Behavioural ecology at the spatial-social interface

Spatial and social behaviour are fundamental aspects of an animal's biology, and their social and spatial environments are indelibly linked through mutual causes and shared consequences. We define the 'spatial-social interface' as intersection of social and spatial aspects of individuals' phenotypes and environments. Behavioural variation at the spatial-social interface has implications for ecological and evolutionary processes including pathogen transmission, population dynamics, and the evolution of social systems. We link spatial and social processes through a foundation of shared theory, vocabulary, and methods. We provide examples and future directions for the integration of spatial and social behaviour and environments. We introduce key concepts and approaches that either implicitly or explicitly integrate social and spatial processes, for example, graph theory, density-dependent habitat selection, and niche specialization. Finally, we discuss how movement ecology helps link the spatial-social interface. Our review integrates social and spatial behavioural ecology and identifies testable hypotheses at the spatial-social interface.

Long-term changes in benthic communities following the invasion by an alien octocoral in the Southwest Atlantic, Brazil

Invasive alien species are considered one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. We used a BACI design to investigate the changes in rocky reef benthic communities related to the invasion of the octocoral Latissimia ningalooensis in the Southwest Atlantic. Drastic changes in benthic community structure were restricted to the invaded site and associated with the growth of L. ningalooensis on turf algae. Conversely, the zoanthid Palythoa caribaeorum remained stable coverage along the 9-year study period, indicating a greater biotic resistance against the octocoral. Latissimia ningalooensis spread from large and well-established patches to new areas of the reef, increasing turf-octocoral interactions. This study warns of the great invasive potential of the octocoral, due to its high abundance, competitive and expansion ability. The decline in abundance of turf-forming algae following the emergence of L. ningalooensis threatens the structure and functioning of macroalgal-dominated rocky reefs.

Curvature dependences of wave propagation in reaction–diffusion models

Reaction–diffusion waves in multiple spatial dimensions advance at a rate that strongly depends on the curvature of the wavefronts. These waves have important applications in many physical, ecological and biological systems. In this work, we analyse curvature dependences of travelling fronts in a single reaction–diffusion equation with general reaction term. We derive an exact, non-perturbative curvature dependence of the speed of travelling fronts that arises from transverse diffusion occurring parallel to the wavefront. Inward-propagating waves are characterized by three phases: an establishment phase dominated by initial and boundary conditions, a travelling-wave-like phase in which normal velocity matches standard results from singular perturbation theory and a dip-filling phase where the collision and interaction of fronts create additional curvature dependences to their progression rate. We analyse these behaviours and additional curvature dependences using a combination of asymptotic analyses and numerical simulations.

Wave speed and critical patch size for integro-difference equations with a strong Allee effect

Simplified conditions are given for the existence and positivity of wave speed for an integro-difference equation with a strong Allee effect and an unbounded habitat. The results are used to obtain the existence of a critical patch size for an equation with a bounded habitat. It is shown that if the wave speed is positive there exists a critical patch size such that for a habitat size above the critical patch size solutions can persist in space, and if the wave speed is negative solutions always approach zero. An analytical integral formula is developed to determine the critical patch size when the Laplace dispersal kernel is used, and this formula shows existence of multiple equilibrium solutions. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate connections among the wave speed, critical patch size, and Allee threshold.

Invasion impacts and dynamics of a European-wide introduced species

Globalization has led to the introduction of thousands of alien species worldwide. With growing impacts by invasive species, understanding the invasion process remains critical for predicting adverse effects and informing efficient management. Theoretically, invasion dynamics have been assumed to follow an "invasion curve" (S-shaped curve of available area invaded over time), but this dynamic has lacked empirical testing using large-scale data and neglects to consider invader abundances. We propose an "impact curve" describing the impacts generated by invasive species over time based on cumulative abundances. To test this curve's large-scale applicability, we used the data-rich New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum, one of the most damaging freshwater invaders that has invaded almost all of Europe. Using long-term (1979-2020) abundance and environmental data collected across 306 European sites, we observed that P. antipodarum abundance generally increased through time, with slower population growth at higher latitudes and with lower runoff depth. Fifty-nine percent of these populations followed the impact curve, characterized by first occurrence, exponential growth, then long-term saturation. This behaviour is consistent with boom-bust dynamics, as saturation occurs due to a rapid decline in abundance over time. Across sites, we estimated that impact peaked approximately two decades after first detection, but the rate of progression along the invasion process was influenced by local abiotic conditions. The S-shaped impact curve may be common among many invasive species that undergo complex invasion dynamics. This provides a potentially unifying approach to advance understanding of large-scale invasion dynamics and could inform timely management actions to mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies.

Scanning the horizon for invasive plant threats using a data-driven approach

Early detection and eradication of invasive plants are more cost-effective than managing well-established invasive plant populations and their impacts. However, there is high uncertainty around which taxa are likely to become invasive in a given area. Horizon scanning that combines a data-driven approach with rapid risk assessment and consensus building among experts can help identify invasion threats. We performed a horizon scan of potential invasive plant threats to Florida, USA—a state with a high influx of introduced species, conditions that are generally favorable for plant establishment, and a history of negative impacts from invasive plants. We began with an initial list of 2128 non-native plant taxa that are known invaders or crop pests. We built on previous invasive species horizon scans by developing data-based criteria to prioritize 100 taxa for rapid risk assessment. The semi-automated prioritization process included selecting taxa “on the horizon” (i.e., not yet in the target location and not on a noxious weed list) with climate matching, naturalization history, “weediness” record, and global commonness. We derived overall invasion risk scores with rapid risk assessment by evaluating the likelihood of each of the taxa arriving, establishing, and having an impact in Florida. Then, following a consensus-building discussion, we identified six plant taxa as high risk, with overall risk scores ranging from 75 to 100 out of a possible 125. The six taxa are globally distributed, easily transported to new areas, found in regions with climates similar to Florida’s, and can impact native plant communities, human health, or agriculture. Finally, we evaluated our initial and final lists for potential biases. Assessors tended to assign higher risk scores to taxa that had more available information. In addition, we identified biases towards four plant families and certain geographical regions of origin. Our horizon scan approach identified taxa conforming to metrics of high invasion risk and used a methodology refined for plants that can be applied to other locations.

Size-dependent flight capacity and propensity in a range-expanding invasive insect

For capital-breeding insects, all resources available for adult metabolic needs are accumulated during larval feeding. Therefore, body size at adult eclosion represents the total energetic capacity of the individual. For female capital breeders, body size is strongly correlated with lifetime fecundity, while in males, body size, which correlates with fitness, is less understood. In capital-breeding species with wingless, flightless, or dispersal-limited females, flight potential for male Lepidoptera has important implications for mate-finding and may be correlated with body size. At low population densities, failure to mate has been identified as an important Allee effect and can drive the success or failure of invasive species at range edges and in species of conservation concern. Th capital-breeding European subspecies of Lymantria dispar (L.), was introduced to North America in 1869 and now ranges across much of eastern North America. In L. dispar, females are flightless and mate-finding is entirely performed by males. We quantified male L. dispar flight capacity and propensity relative to morphological and physiological characteristics using fixed-arm flight mills. A range of male body sizes was produced by varying the protein content of standard artificial diets while holding other dietary components constant. Wing length, a proxy for body size, relative thorax mass, and forewing aspect were all important predictors of total flight distance and maximum speed. These results have important implications for mate-finding and invasion dynamics in L. dispar and may apply broadly to other capital-breeding insects.

Interpreting how nonlinear diffusion affects the fate of bistable populations using a discrete modelling framework

Understanding whether a population will survive or become extinct is a central question in population biology. One way of exploring this question is to study population dynamics using reaction-diffusion equations, where migration is usually represented as a linear diffusion term, and birth-death is represented with a nonlinear source term. While linear diffusion is most commonly employed to study migration, there are several limitations of this approach, such as the inability of linear diffusion-based models to predict a well-defined population front. One way to overcome this is to generalize the constant diffusivity, D , to a nonlinear diffusivity function D ( C ) , where C > 0 is the population density. While the choice of D ( C ) affects long-term survival or extinction of a bistable population, working solely in a continuum framework makes it difficult to understand how the choice of D ( C ) affects survival or extinction. We address this question by working with a discrete simulation model that is easy to interpret. This approach provides clear insight into how the choice of D ( C ) either encourages or suppresses population extinction relative to the classical linear diffusion model.

Fast growth can counteract antibiotic susceptibility in shaping microbial community resilience to antibiotics

SignificanceAntibiotic exposure stands among the most used interventions to drive microbial communities away from undesired states. How the ecology of microbial communities shapes their recovery-e.g., posttreatment shifts toward Clostridioides difficile infections in the gut-after antibiotic exposure is poorly understood. We study community response to antibiotics using a model community that can reach two alternative states. Guided by theory, our experiments show that microbial growth following antibiotic exposure can counteract antibiotic susceptibility in driving transitions between alternative community states. This makes it possible to reverse the outcome of antibiotic exposure through modifying growth dynamics, including cooperative growth, of community members. Our research highlights the relevance of simple ecological models to better understand the long-term effects of antibiotic treatment.

Diverse perspectives from diverse scholars are vital for theoretical biology

Science is based on studying some aspects of the world while holding others constant. The assumptions of what can and cannot be ignored implicitly shape our understanding of the world around us. This truth is particularly evident when studying biology through mathematical models, where one must explicitly state assumptions during the process of model building. Although we often recognize that all models are “wrong” in their assumptions, we often overlook the corollary that developing multiple models that are wrong in different ways can help us triangulate truth in our understanding. Theoretical biologists build models in the image of how they envision the world, an image that is shaped by their scientific identity, experiences, and perspectives. A lack of diversity in any of these axes handicaps our ability to understand biological systems through theory. However, we can overcome this by collectively recognizing our own assumptions, by understanding how perspective shapes the development of theory, and — most importantly — by increasing the diversity of theoretical biologists (in terms of identity, experiences, and perspectives). Combined, this will lead to developing theory that provides a richer understanding of the biological world.

Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics

Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.

Slow expanders invade by forming dented fronts in microbial colonies

Living organisms never cease to evolve, so there is a significant interest in predicting and controlling evolution in all branches of life sciences. The most basic question is whether a trait should increase or decrease in a given environment. The answer seems to be trivial for traits such as the growth rate in a bioreactor or the expansion rate of a tumor. Yet, it has been suggested that such traits can decrease, rather than increase, during evolution. Here, we report a mutant that outcompeted the ancestor despite having a slower expansion velocity when in isolation. To explain this observation, we developed and validated a theory that describes spatial competition between organisms with different expansion rates and arbitrary competitive interactions.

Most organisms grow in space, whether they are viruses spreading within a host tissue or invasive species colonizing a new continent. Evolution typically selects for higher expansion rates during spatial growth, but it has been suggested that slower expanders can take over under certain conditions. Here, we report an experimental observation of such population dynamics. We demonstrate that mutants that grow slower in isolation nevertheless win in competition, not only when the two types are intermixed, but also when they are spatially segregated into sectors. The latter was thought to be impossible because previous studies focused exclusively on the global competitions mediated by expansion velocities, but overlooked the local competitions at sector boundaries. Local competition, however, can enhance the velocity of either type at the sector boundary and thus alter expansion dynamics. We developed a theory that accounts for both local and global competitions and describes all possible sector shapes. In particular, the theory predicted that a slower on its own, but more competitive, mutant forms a dented V-shaped sector as it takes over the expansion front. Such sectors were indeed observed experimentally, and their shapes matched quantitatively with the theory. In simulations, we further explored several mechanisms that could provide slow expanders with a local competitive advantage and showed that they are all well-described by our theory. Taken together, our results shed light on previously unexplored outcomes of spatial competition and establish a universal framework to understand evolutionary and ecological dynamics in expanding populations.

Extinction of Bistable Populations is Affected by the Shape of their Initial Spatial Distribution

The question of whether biological populations survive or are eventually driven to extinction has long been examined using mathematical models. In this work, we study population survival or extinction using a stochastic, discrete lattice-based random walk model where individuals undergo movement, birth and death events. The discrete model is defined on a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice with periodic boundary conditions. A key feature of the discrete model is that crowding effects are introduced by specifying two different crowding functions that govern how local agent density influences movement events and birth/death events. The continuum limit description of the discrete model is a nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation, and we focus on crowding functions that lead to linear diffusion and a bistable source term that is often associated with the strong Allee effect. Using both the discrete and continuum modelling tools, we explore the complicated relationship between the long-term survival or extinction of the population and the initial spatial arrangement of the population. In particular, we study different spatial arrangements of initial distributions: (i) a well-mixed initial distribution where the initial density is independent of position in the domain; (ii) a vertical strip initial distribution where the initial density is independent of vertical position in the domain; and, (iii) several forms of two-dimensional initial distributions where the initial population is distributed in regions with different shapes. Our results indicate that the shape of the initial spatial distribution of the population affects extinction of bistable populations. All software required to solve the discrete and continuum models used in this work are available on GitHub .

A missing cog in the wheel: an Allee effects perspective in biological invasion paradigm

Environmental stochasticity and invasive species demographical factors are considered to be fundamental aspects of species invasion. Population size, density, and intraspecific competition are the important determinants of species range expansion. Allee effects, interesting density-dependent phenomena, act as 'mechanism of population regulation' during species expansion. The study intends to understand the trend of published researches and identify research gaps pertaining to biological invasions and Allee effects with the help of bibliometric analysis. Content and citation analysis using key words 'Allee effects' AND 'biological invasion' was conducted on research articles published over a period of two and a half decades from Scopus database for global and Indian context. Understanding of Allee effects dynamics in context of biological invasion is limited, especially in India. Integrating the emerging trends pertaining to Allee effects in the biological invasion framework will strengthen the understanding on species range expansion. It is emphasized that Allee effects can emerge as an important tool to manage invasive species range expansion.

Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model

The success of species invasions depends on multiple factors, including propagule pressure, disturbance, productivity, and the traits of native and non-native species. While the importance of many of these determinants has already been investigated in relative isolation, they are rarely studied in combination. Here, we address this shortcoming by exploring the effect of the above-listed factors on the success of invasions using an individual-based mechanistic model. This approach enables us to explicitly control environmental factors (temperature as surrogate for productivity, disturbance, and propagule pressure) as well as to monitor whole-community trait distributions of environmental adaptation, mass, and dispersal abilities. We simulated introductions of plant individuals to an oceanic island to assess which factors and species traits contribute to invasion success. We found that the most influential factors were higher propagule pressure and a particular set of traits. This invasion trait syndrome was characterized by a relative similarity in functional traits of invasive to native species, while invasive species had on average higher environmental adaptation, higher body mass, and increased dispersal distances, that is, had greater competitive and dispersive abilities. Our results highlight the importance in management practice of reducing the import of alien species, especially those that display this trait syndrome and come from similar habitats as those being managed.

Belowground feedbacks as drivers of spatial self-organization and community assembly

Vegetation patterning in water-limited and other resource-limited ecosystems highlights spatial self-organization processes as potentially key drivers of community assembly. These processes provide insight into predictable landscape-level relationships between organisms and their abiotic environment in the form of regular and irregular patterns of biota and resources. However, two aspects have largely been overlooked; the roles played by plant - soil-biota feedbacks and allelopathy in spatial self-organization, and their potential contribution, along with plant-resource feedbacks, to community assembly through spatial self-organization. Here, we expand the drivers of spatial self-organization from a focus on plant-resource feedbacks to include plant - soil-biota feedbacks and allelopathy, and integrate concepts of nonlinear physics and community ecology to generate a new hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, below-ground processes can affect community assemblages through two types of spatial self-organization, global and local. The former occurs simultaneously across whole ecosystems, leading to self-organized patterns of biota, allelochemicals and resources, and niche partitioning. The latter occurs locally in ecotones, and determines ecotone structure and motion, invasion dynamics, and species coexistence. Studies of the two forms of spatial self-organization are important for understanding the organization of plant communities in drier climates which are likely to involve spatial patterning or re-patterning. Such studies are also important for developing new practices of ecosystem management, based on local manipulations at ecotones, to slow invasion dynamics or induce transitions from transitive to intransitive networks of interspecific interactions which increase species diversity.

Genetically diverse populations spread faster in benign but not in challenging environments

Population spread from a limited pool of founding propagules is at the basis of biological invasions. The size and genetic variation of these propagules eventually affect whether the invasion is successful or not. The inevitable bottleneck at introduction decreases genetic diversity, and therefore should affect population growth and spread. However, many heavily bottlenecked invasive populations have been successful in nature. Negative effects of a genetic bottleneck are typically considered to be relaxed in benign environments because of a release from stress. Despite its relevance to understand and predict invasions, empirical evidence on the role of genetic diversity in relation to habitat quality is largely lacking. We use the mite Tetranychus urticae Koch as a model to experimentally assess spread rate and size of genetically depleted inbred populations vs. enriched mixed populations. This was assessed in replicated linear patch systems consisting of benign (bean), challenging (tomato), or a gradient (bean to tomato) habitat. As expected, we found no effect of genetic diversity on population size in benign habitat but found that it increased population size in challenging habitat. However, we found that population spread rates were increased due to genetic diversity in the benign but not in the challenging habitat. Additionally, variance in spread was consistently higher in genetically poor populations and highest in the challenging habitat. Our experiment challenges the general view that a bottleneck in genetic variation decreases invasion success in challenging but not benign environments.

Tolerance niche expansion and potential distribution prediction during Asian openbill bird range expansion

It is prevalent to use ecological niche models in the analysis of species expansion and niche changes. However, it is difficult to estimate the niche when alien species fail to establish in exotic areas. Here, we applied the tolerance niche concept, which means that niche of species can live and grow but preclude a species from establishing self-sustaining populations, in such fail-to-establish events. Taking the rapidly expanded bird, Asian openbill (Anastomus oscitans), as a model species, we investigated niche dynamics and its potential effects on the population by Niche A and ecospat, predicted potential distribution by biomod2. Results showed that niche expansion has occurred in two non-native populations caused by the tolerance of colder and wetter environments, and potential distribution mainly concentrated on equatorial islands. Our study suggested that the expanded niche belongs to tolerance niche concept according to the populations' dynamics and GPS tracking evidence. It is essential to consider source populations when we analyze the alien species. We recommended more consideration to the application of tolerance niche in alien species research, and there is still a need for standard measurement frameworks for analyzing the tolerance niche.

Biological Strategies of Invasive Bark Beetles and Borers Species

Simple Summary

Biological invasions are one of the most critical problems today. Invaders have been damaging tree- and shrub-dominated ecosystems. Among these harmful species, a notable role belongs to bark beetles and borers. Extensive phytosanitary measures are needed to prevent their penetration into new regions. However, the lists of quarantine pests should be reasonably brief for more effective prevention of invasion of potentially harmful insects. Our goal is to reveal the set of biological traits of invasive bark beetles and borers that are currently known. We identified four invasion strategies. Inbred, the first one is characterized by inbreeding, parthenogenesis, polyvoltinism, xylomycetophagy, flightless males, polyphagy, to less extent by association with pathogenic fungi. For the second, polyphagous, typical traits are polyphagy, feeding on wood, high fecundity, distance sex pheromones presence, development for one year or more. The third strategy, intermediate, possesses such features as mono- or olygophagy, feeding on inner-bark, short (one year or less) life cycle. Aggressive, the last one includes monophagous species using aggregation pheromones, associated pathogens, short life cycle, and consuming inner-bark. The main traits contributing to significant damage are high fecundity, polyvoltinism, symbiotic plant pathogens, long-range or aggregation pheromones.

Abstract

The present study attempts to identify the biological characteristics of invasive (high-impact in the secondary area) bark beetles and borers species, contributing to their success in an invaded area. We selected 42 species based on the CABI website data on invasive species and information on the most studied regional faunas. Four groups of species with different invasion strategies were identified based on the cluster and factor analysis. The first one (inbred strategy) is characterized by flightless males, xylomycetophagy, low fecundity (~50 eggs), inbreeding, polyvoltinism, and polyphagy. Species with an aggressive strategy are poly- or monovoltine, feeds on a limited number of hosts, larval feeding on the inner bark, are often associated with phytopathogens, and produce aggregation pheromones. Representatives of the polyphagous strategy have a wide range of hosts, high fecundity (~150 eggs), larval feeding on wood, and their life cycle is at least a year long. For the intermediate strategy, the typical life cycle is from a year or less, medium fecundity, feed on inner bark tissues, mono- or oligophagy. Comparison with low-impact alien species showed that the most significant traits from the viewpoint of the potential danger of native plant species are high fecundity, polyvoltinism, presence of symbiotic plant pathogens, long-range or aggregation pheromones.

Epigenetic potential affects immune gene expression in house sparrows

Epigenetic mechanisms may play a central role in mediating phenotypic plasticity, especially during range expansions, when populations face a suite of novel environmental conditions. Individuals may differ in their epigenetic potential (EP; their capacity for epigenetic modifications of gene expression), which may affect their ability to colonize new areas. One form of EP, the number of CpG sites, is higher in introduced house sparrows (Passer domesticus) than in native birds in the promoter region of a microbial surveillance gene, Toll-like Receptor 4 (TLR4), which may allow invading birds to fine-tune their immune responses to unfamiliar parasites. Here, we compared TLR4 gene expression from whole blood, liver and spleen in house sparrows with different EP, first challenging some birds with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), to increase gene expression by simulating a natural infection. We expected that high EP would predict high inducibility and reversibility of TLR4 expression in the blood of birds treated with LPS, but we did not make directional predictions regarding organs, as we could not repeatedly sample these tissues. We found that EP was predictive of TLR4 expression in all tissues. Birds with high EP expressed more TLR4 in the blood than individuals with low EP, regardless of treatment with LPS. Only females with high EP exhibited reversibility in gene expression. Further, the effect of EP varied between sexes and among tissues. Together, these data support EP as one regulator of TLR4 expression.

Invading and Receding Sharp-Fronted Travelling Waves

Biological invasion, whereby populations of motile and proliferative individuals lead to moving fronts that invade vacant regions, is routinely studied using partial differential equation models based upon the classical Fisher-KPP equation. While the Fisher-KPP model and extensions have been successfully used to model a range of invasive phenomena, including ecological and cellular invasion, an often-overlooked limitation of the Fisher-KPP model is that it cannot be used to model biological recession where the spatial extent of the population decreases with time. In this work, we study the Fisher-Stefan model, which is a generalisation of the Fisher-KPP model obtained by reformulating the Fisher-KPP model as a moving boundary problem. The nondimensional Fisher-Stefan model involves just one parameter, [Formula: see text], which relates the shape of the density front at the moving boundary to the speed of the associated travelling wave, c. Using numerical simulation, phase plane and perturbation analysis, we construct approximate solutions of the Fisher-Stefan model for both slowly invading and receding travelling waves, as well as for rapidly receding travelling waves. These approximations allow us to determine the relationship between c and [Formula: see text] so that commonly reported experimental estimates of c can be used to provide estimates of the unknown parameter [Formula: see text]. Interestingly, when we reinterpret the Fisher-KPP model as a moving boundary problem, many overlooked features of the classical Fisher-KPP phase plane take on a new interpretation since travelling waves solutions with [Formula: see text] are normally disregarded. This means that our analysis of the Fisher-Stefan model has both practical value and an inherent mathematical value.

Fairy circles reveal the resilience of self-organized salt marshes

Spatial patterning is a fascinating theme in both theoretical and experimental ecology. It reveals resilience and stability to withstand external disturbances and environmental stresses. However, existing studies mainly focus on well-developed persistent patterns rather than transient patterns in self-organizing ecosystems. Here, combining models and experimental evidence, we show that transient fairy circle patterns in intertidal salt marshes can both infer the underlying ecological mechanisms and provide a measure of resilience. The models based on sulfide accumulation and nutrient depletion mechanisms reproduced the field-observed fairy circles, providing a generalized perspective on the emergence of transient patterns in salt marsh ecosystems. Field experiments showed that nitrogen fertilization mitigates depletion stress and shifts plant growth from negative to positive in the center of patches. Hence, nutrient depletion plays an overriding role, as only this process can explain the concentric rings. Our findings imply that the emergence of transient patterns can identify the ecological processes underlying pattern formation and the factors determining the ecological resilience of salt marsh ecosystems.

The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts

It is well established that nonnative species are a key driver of global environmental change, but much less is known about the underlying drivers of nonnative species outbreaks themselves. In the present article, we explore the concept and implications of nonnative sleeper populations in invasion dynamics. Such populations persist at low abundance for years or even decades—a period during which they often go undetected and have negligible impact—until they are triggered by an environmental factor to become highly abundant and disruptive. Population irruptions are commonly misinterpreted as a recent arrival of the nonnative species, but sleeper populations belie a more complex history of inconspicuous occurrence followed by an abrupt shift in abundance and ecological impact. In the present article, we identify mechanisms that can trigger their irruption, and the implications for invasive species risk assessment and management.

Potential Differences and Methods of Determining Gypsy Moth Female Flight Capabilities: Implications for the Establishment and Spread in Novel Habitats

The introduction of the Asian gypsy moth into novel environments continues with frequent interceptions in North America. There is a concern that these subspecies will pose a greater threat to the forests and urban environments of North America than the established gypsy moths (Lymantria dispardispar L.), due to their greater capacity for female flight. Asian gypsy moth populations vary in many key traits, including female flight capabilities. The potential impacts of female flight, in combination with the other key traits, on the ecology and spread of this insect are first discussed in this communication. This also provides the first review of most of the current literature on the variations in flight capability and flight distance of gypsy moth populations, as well as variation in other traits of concern and the potential methods of identification, with special attention paid to the Asian subspecies Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky and Lymantria dispar asiatica Vinkovskij. There are currently good tools for identifying the general origin of introduced gypsy moth populations, but these do not provide enough information to effectively manage introductions. Gypsy moth key traits differ among populations, even within each subspecies of the gypsy moth, so introduction of gypsy moths from other world areas into locations where the gypsy moth is already present could result in unwanted changes in gypsy moth biology. It also appears that the introduction of flight-capable females could enhance a population’s dispersal capability and require modifications to management protocols used for flightless females. Therefore, rapid tools to assess key traits in introduced populations are needed to adequately plan for, or deal with, new introductions into novel habitats.