Increasing 'active prevalence' of cancer in Western Australia and its implications for health services

The increase in cancer prevalence and hospital burden in Western Australia, 1992-2011

PURPOSE

To describe cancer prevalence and hospital service utilization by prevalent cancer patients in Western Australia from 1992 to 2011.

METHODS

This study was a population-based cohort study using the Western Australia (WA) Cancer Registry (1982 to 2011) as the source of incident cancer cases. These data were linked to mortality (1982 to 2011) and hospital morbidity (1998 to 2011) records via the WA Data Linkage System to ascertain complete and limited-duration prevalence and cancer-related hospitalizations over time. Prevalence rates were calculated using estimated residential population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

RESULTS

In 2011, one in every 27 people living in WA had been diagnosed with cancer at some time in their lifetime, and one in 68 had been diagnosed within the previous five years. Between 1992 and 2011, complete cancer prevalence in Western Australia increased by a magnitude of 2.5-fold. Forty-five and 44% of the increase in complete cancer prevalence in males and females between 1992 and 2011 can be attributed to prostate and breast cancer, respectively. The absolute number of cancer-related bed days increased 81 and 74% in males and females, respectively, diagnosed within one year, between 1998 and 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of cancer and the burden it places on hospitals continues to rise, demanding ongoing efforts to prevent cancer through modifiable risk factors and better, more efficient use of health resources. Steps should to be taken to understand and address overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Prostate cancer prevalence in New South Wales Australia: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Information on the current and future numbers of Australian men living with prostate cancer is limited. We describe a method for estimating complete prevalence of prostate cancer to provide a measure of the burden of prostate cancer in Australia.

METHODS

Prostate cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry were used with PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software to estimate future prostate cancer prevalence in NSW. We first fitted parametric incidence and survival models then used the modelled incidence and survival estimates to calculate complete prevalence. The estimated and projected prevalence incorporate past observed trends and take into account different assumptions about future survival trends. These models were validated against observed prevalence from the counting method.

RESULTS

Based on data for 1996-2007, the number of men living with prostate cancer in NSW was estimated to rise by 59% to 73%, from 38,322 in 2007 to 60,910-66,160 in 2017. The increasing incidence rates and the ageing population were the major contributors to this estimated increase. Validation suggested that these projections were reasonable, as the estimated prevalence in 1996-2007 was in good agreement with the corresponding prevalence calculated using the direct counting method, and the incidence models were supported by the recent data on prostate-specific antigen testing.

CONCLUSIONS

As the number of men living with prostate cancer is expected to increase dramatically in the next decade in Australia, representing a significant challenge to the health system, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required. These projections are useful for addressing the challenge in meeting the cancer care needs of men with prostate cancer.

A population-based study of breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting the future health care needs of women living with breast cancer

Background

Breast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about the actual number of women living with breast cancer and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data and innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in a well-defined geographic region.

Methods

Breast cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry and PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software were used to project future breast cancer prevalence in NSW. Parametric models were fitted to incidence and survival data, and the modelled incidence and survival estimates were then used to estimate current and future prevalence. To estimate future healthcare requirements the projected prevalence was then divided into phases of care according to the different stages of the survivorship trajectory.

Results

The number of women in NSW living with a breast cancer diagnosis had increased from 19,305 in 1990 to 48,754 in 2007. This number is projected to increase further to 68,620 by 2017. The majority of these breast cancer survivors will require continued monitoring (31,974) or will be long-term survivors (29,785). About 9% will require active treatment (either initial therapy, or treatment for subsequent metastases or second cancer) and 1% will need end of life care due to breast cancer.

Conclusions

Extrapolating these projections to the national Australian population would equate to 209,200 women living with breast cancer in Australia in 2017, many of whom will require active treatment or post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2407-14-936) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Projecting prevalence by stage of care for prostate cancer and estimating future health service needs: protocol for a modelling study

Introduction Current strategies for the management of prostate cancer are inadequate in Australia. We will, in this study, estimate current service needs and project the future needs for prostate cancer patients in Australia. Methods and analysis First, we will project the future prevalence of prostate cancer for 2010-2018 using data for 1972-2008 from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry. These projections, based on modelled incidence and survival estimates, will be estimated using PIAMOD (Prevalence, Incidence, Analysis MODel) software. Then the total prevalence will be decomposed into five stages of care: initial care, continued monitoring, recurrence, last year of life and long-term survivor. Finally, data from the NSW Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study, including data on patterns of treatment and associated quality of life, will be used to estimate the type and amount of services that will be needed by prostate cancer patients in each stage of care. In addition, Central Cancer Registry episode data will be used to estimate transition rates from localised or locally advanced prostate cancer to metastatic disease. Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits data, linked with Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study data, will be used to complement the Cancer Registry episode data. The methods developed will be applied Australia-wide to obtain national estimates of the future prevalence of prostate cancer for different stages of clinical care. Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee. Results of the study will be disseminated widely to different interest groups and organisations through a report, conference presentations and peer-reviewed articles.

Repeat adverse drug reactions causing hospitalization in older Australians: a population-based longitudinal study 1980-2003

AIM

To examine trends in the rate of repeat adverse drug reactions (ADRs) causing hospitalization in older Australians and to identify the most common ADRs and drugs most often implicated in repeat and first-time ADRs.

METHODS

Analysis of routinely collected hospital record administrative data, with International Classification of Diseases external cause codes for ADRs extracted from the Western Australia (WA) Hospital Morbidity Data System and WA Death Register, for people aged > or =60 years in 1980-2003.

RESULTS

A total of 37 296 people aged > or =60 years with an ADR-related hospitalization were identified. Among them, 6853 (18.4%) patients had 10 212 repeat ADRs. Repeat ADRs consistently increased from 1980 and reached 30.3% of all ADRs by 2003. The mean time interval declined with each successive repeat ADR (810, 606 and 299 days for the first, second and higher ranked repeat episodes, respectively). The most common repeat ADRs were nausea/vomiting (8.0%), haemorrhage due to anticoagulants (5.5%), drug-induced osteoporosis (4.8%) and poisoning by cardiovascular agents (3.9%). The drugs most often involved in repeat ADRs were cardiovascular agents (15.6%), antineoplastic drugs (11.0%), corticoids (10.1%), anticoagulants (8.6%), antirheumatics/nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (5.1%) and opioids (4.9%). The trends of anticoagulants and antineoplastic drugs implicated in repeat ADRs were still rising at the end of the study. The specific drug classes involved in repeat ADRs differed in relative importance from first-time ADRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeat ADR-related hospitalizations have consistently increased in elderly Australians from 1980 to 2003. Strategies to ensure the safer use of medicines, in particular anticoagulants, in this population are warranted.

Readmission and survival following hospitalization for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: long-term trends

BACKGROUND

Exacerbations requiring hospital admission for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) contribute to a decline in health status and are costly to the community. Long-term trends in admissions and associated outcomes are difficult to establish because of frequent readmissions, high case fatality and potential diagnostic transfer between COPD and asthma. The Western Australian Data Linkage System provides a unique opportunity to examine admissions for patients with COPD over the long term.

METHOD

Nineteen years of hospital morbidity data, based on International Classification of Diseases-9 criteria were extracted from the Western Australian Data Linkage System (1980-1998) and merged with mortality records to examine trends in hospital admissions for COPD.

RESULTS

The rate of hospital admissions for COPD has declined overall and the rate of first presentation declined in men and remained constant in women. The risk of readmission increased throughout the period (P < 0.0001) and more than half of all admissions were followed by readmission within a year. Median survival following first admission was 6 years (men 5 years; women 8 years). Age, sex and International Classification of Diseases subcategory each showed an independent effect on the risk of mortality (P < 0.0001). The poorest survival was in patients subcategorized as emphysema. For patients with multiple admissions, the likelihood of cross-over between COPD and asthma was high and increased with the total number of admissions.

CONCLUSION

The rate of admission for COPD has declined in Western Australia; however, the resource burden will continue to increase because of the ageing population. This has policy implications for the development of acute care treatment programmes for COPD.

Cancer knowledge and perception of skills of general practice registrars in Australia

BACKGROUND

The objective was to assess cancer knowledge and perception of skills of general practice (GP) registrars in Australia. This will help design future educational resources.

METHODS

We surveyed GP registrars in different Australian states.

RESULTS

Of the registrars, 86% rated highly their ability in performing cervical smears. Registrars reported examining more patients with breast cancer, lung cancer, or melanoma than rectal cancer, cancer of mouth/tongue, or lymphoma. More registrars rated the quality of their training as reasonable or better in assisting patients to stop smoking or modify alcohol intake than in cancer-related tasks. One third rated their teaching on management of curable/incurable cancer and care of the dying as poor and/or very poor, and over half had never examined prostate or rectal cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

GP registrars generally have good knowledge of cancer. Their exposure to cases of cancer is low, and it is of concern that many have never examined common tumors in our community.

What should doctors know about cancer? Undergraduate medical education from a societal perspective

Cancer is a major health problem, but medical undergraduate education about cancer leaves many practitioners ill-prepared. All practitioners need some knowledge of cancer. Those practising in rural areas might need more knowledge because of their isolation from tertiary services. We review the need for cancer education from the perspective of patients and clinicians, and examine the cancer-knowledge skills and attitudes of medical undergraduates. Patients with cancer expect their family practitioner to be knowledgeable enough to act as their advocate and to be able to interpret for them the complex array of tests and treatments that they could face. Many oncologists think that they do not have adequate access to students because of entrenched attitudes within universities that aim to protect established teaching programmes and leave little room to adapt teaching to the changing needs of society. Surveys of medical undergraduates have shown that, over the past decade, students have less contact with patients and retain some misconceptions about cancer. To deliver appropriate standards of cancer teaching, an undergraduate programme should incorporate a national or international standard curriculum and a minimum number of essential experiences. Because assessment drives education, students' knowledge, skills, and attitudes relating to cancer should be assessed, and the outcomes of such assessment should inform the curriculum.

Non-Cancer Mortality among People Diagnosed with Cancer (Australia)

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether people diagnosed with cancer have an increased risk of death from non-cancer causes compared to the general population.

METHODS

The non-cancer mortality of people diagnosed with cancer in Queensland (Australia) between 1982 and 2002 who had not died before 1 January 1993 was compared to the mortality of the total Queensland population, matching by age group and sex, and reporting by standardised mortality ratios.

RESULTS

Compared to the non-cancer mortality in the general population, cancer patients (all cancers combined) were nearly 50% more likely to die of non-cancer causes (SMR = 149.9, 95% CI = [147-153]). This varied by cancer site. Overall melanoma patients had significantly lower non-cancer mortality, female breast cancer patients had similar non-cancer mortality to the general population, while increased non-cancer mortality risks were observed for people diagnosed with cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cancer-specific death rates underestimate the mortality directly associated with a diagnosis of cancer, quantifying the degree of underestimation is difficult due to various competing explanations. There remains an important role for future research in understanding the causes of morbidity among cancer survivors, particularly those looking at both co-morbid illnesses and reductions in quality of life.

Knowledge of treatment intent among patients with advanced cancer: a longitudinal study

Increasingly, patients with cancer wish to be more fully informed about their disease, treatment and prognosis, and to participate in decision making. The objective of this study was to assess knowledge of diagnosis and goals of treatment among patients with advanced cancer, and also to assess whether this knowledge changed over time. A cohort of 181 subjects with advanced cancer receiving palliative therapies were interviewed at entry and again 12 weeks later. Knowledge of disease diagnosis, treatment intent, and the main sources of information were determined. Twenty per cent of subjects considered their illness to be non-life threatening, and 46% correctly perceived treatment intent as non-curative; 29% believed the intent of treatment was cure. Subjects resident in rural areas were more likely to misunderstand the goal of their treatment. Treatment modality was significantly associated with knowledge of treatment intent, and subjects in the last 6 months of life had clearer understanding that treatment intent was non-curative. Many patients with advanced cancer do not understand the goals of treatment. Excessive optimism may lead to impaired decision making. Further empirical research into information transfer and predictors of accurate patient understanding would assist clinicians in their discussions of prognosis and potential treatment outcomes with patients.

Adverse drug reactions in older Australians, 1981–2002

OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in people aged 60 years or over causing admission to or an extended stay in Western Australian hospitals between 1981 and 2002.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Secondary data analysis of case series.

PATIENTS

43,380 patients admitted to WA public and private hospitals with an (International Classification of Diseases) ICD external cause code for an ADR, identified by the population-based WA Hospital Morbidity Data System.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-specific, age-standardised and drug-specific rates of ADR-related hospital stays.

RESULTS

The age-standardised rate of ADR-related hospital stays increased from 2.5 per 1000 person-years (py) in 1981 to 12.9 per 1000 py in 2002. The largest increases occurred in those aged 80 + years (tenfold in men and sevenfold in women). The most common drug group involved was cardiovascular agents (17.5%), while anticoagulants (7.5%), cytotoxics (7.4%) and antirheumatics (6.8%) were the more specific drug classes most often implicated. ADRs from the last three classes of drugs were still rising at the end of the study, whereas ADRs from corticosteroids and antihypertensives peaked in 1996 and from opioids in 2000.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in hospital admissions or extended lengths of stay due to ADRs in WA have continued despite programs to promote rational and safer use of medicines. The sharp increase in ADRs from anticoagulants warrants attention to revised clinical guidelines.

Cancer statistics: everything you wanted to know about the cancer registry data but were too afraid to ask

Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) have had complete population cancer incidence registration for decades and are beginning to develop clinical data systems to collect details of staging and treatment. Sadly, this bounty of statistical data is often under utilized and occasionally abused. Many are unaware of the data and statistical services available from their local cancer registry. To promote the use of ANZ population cancer data, the following paper describes the principal statistics that are available and identifies common problems with their use.