Spatio-temporal patterns of tigers in response to prey species and anthropogenic activities

Understanding factors influencing the spatio-temporal patterns of apex predators is prerequisite for their conservation. We studied space use and diel activity of tigers (Panthera tigris) in response to prey availability and anthropogenic activities with trail cameras in Nepal during December 2022-March 2023. We used hierarchical occupancy models to evaluate how prey availability (space use of prey species) and anthropogenic activities (number of humans and livestock) contributed to the tigers' space use, while accounting for landscape effects on their detection probability. We calculated the diel activity overlap between tigers and each prey species, as well as with humans and livestock. Overall, tigers had relatively high space use (0.540 ± 0.092) and detection probability (0.742 ± 0.073), and were most influenced by space use of wild pig (Sus scrofa), gaur (Bos gaurus) and number of livestock detections. Tigers exhibited extensive temporal overlap with their prey, but not with humans or livestock. Our study demonstrates that humans and tigers can co-occur in a landscape by altering diel activity and potentially moving cryptically in certain landscapes, provided adequate prey is available. Management actions that ensure adequate prey availability can benefit tiger conservation.

Non-exploitative human disturbance provides shelter for prey from predator

Human activities can influence behaviors of predators and prey, as well as predator-prey interactions. Using camera trap data, we investigated whether or to what extent human activities influenced behaviors of predators (tigers and leopards) and prey (sambar deer, spotted deer, wild boar, and barking deer), and predator-prey interactions in the Barandabhar Corridor Forest (BCF), Chitwan District, Nepal. A multispecies occupancy model revealed that the presence of humans altered the conditional occupancy of both prey and predator species. Specifically, the conditional occupancy probability of prey was substantially higher (ψ = 0.91, CI = 0.89-0.92) when humans were present than when humans were absent (ψ = 0.68, CI = 0.54-0.79). The diel activity pattern of most prey species overlapped strongly with humans, whereas predators were generally more active when humans were absent. Finally, the spatiotemporal overlap analysis revealed that human-prey interactions (i.e., the probability that both humans and prey species being present on the same grid at the same hourly period) was ~3 times higher (10.5%, CI = 10.4%-10.6%) compared to spatiotemporal overlap between humans and predators (3.1%, CI = 3.0%-3.2%). Our findings are consistent with the human shield hypothesis and suggest that ungulate prey species may reduce predation risk by using areas with high human activities.

Factors influencing mammalian community occupancy in Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve, Nepal

The decline in mammalian species diversity is increasing worldwide, with areas characterized by high human activities experiencing more prominent effects. Knowledge of spatial distributions of species and factors acting on them is necessary for effective management. We evaluated community-level occupancy of mammal species in Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve (DHR), Nepal using remote cameras during 15 March-15 June 2022. We used mammal species detections from remote cameras and multispecies hierarchical occupancy modeling to assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on community-level occupancy of detected mammal species. We identified a highly heterogeneous mammal species community at DHR with greatest detection probability (0.21) for red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and lowest (0.08) for blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur). Naïve occupancy ranged from 0.31 for giant-flying squirrel (Petaurista magnificus) to 0.84 for red fox. Mammal community occupancy increased with increasing canopy cover and number of livestock detections, but overall occupancy declined close to human settlements. The findings of this study can be used for developing policy at DHR for the management of mammal species through reducing the potential increase of human settlements or livestock grazing.

Carbonated tiger-high above-ground biomass carbon stock in protected areas and corridors and its observed negative relationship with tiger population density and occupancy in the Terai Arc Landscape, Nepal

Healthy natural forests maintain and/or enhances carbon stock while also providing potential habitat and an array of services to wildlife including large carnivores such as the tiger. This study is the first of its kind in assessing relationships between above-ground biomass carbon stock, tiger density and occupancy probability and its status in protected areas, corridors, and forest connectivity blocks. The dataset used to assess the relationship were: (1) Converged posterior tiger density estimates from camera trap data derived from Bayesian- Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture model from Chitwan National Park; (2) Site wise probability of tiger occupancy estimated across the Terai Arc Landscape and (3) Habitat wise above-ground biomass carbon stock estimated across the Terai Arc Landscape. Carbon stock maps were derived based on eight habitat classes and conservation units linking satellite (Landsat 7 ETM+) images and field collected sampling data. A significant negative relationship (r = -0.20, p<0.01) was observed between above-ground biomass carbon stock and tiger density in Chitwan National Park and with tiger occupancy (r = -0.24, p = 0.023) in the landscape. Within protected areas, we found highest mean above-ground biomass carbon stock in high density mixed forest (~223 tC/ha) and low in degraded scrubland (~73.2 tC/ha). Similarly, we found: (1) highest tiger density ~ 0.06 individuals per 0.33 km2 in the riverine forest and lowest estimates (~0.00) in degraded scrubland; and (2) predictive tiger density of 0.0135 individuals per 0.33 km2 is equivalent to mean total of 43.7 tC/ha in Chitwan National Park. Comparatively, we found similar above-ground biomass carbon stock among corridors, large forest connectivity blocks (~117 tC/ha), and within in tiger bearing protected areas (~119 tC/ha). Carbon conservation through forest restoration particularly in riverine habitats (forest and grassland) and low transitional state forests (degraded scrubland) provides immense opportunities to generate win-win solutions, sequester more carbon and maintain habitat integrity for tigers and other large predators.

Distribution and habitat-use of Dhole Cuon alpinus (Mammalia: Carnivora: Canidae) in Parsa National Park, Nepal

Dhole Cuon alpinus is one of the top predators in Asian forests but is one of the least studied species of carnivores. We surveyed an area of 499 km2 of Parsa National Park (PNP) during the winter (November–January) of 2016–17 using camera-traps to determine the spatial distribution and habitat-use patterns of Dhole.  We overlaid 2 x 2 km2 grid cells (n= 126) across the study area and set up a pair of motion sensor cameras in each grid cells for 21 days.  We modeled the habitat-use by Dholes as a function of sampling covariates and fine-scale habitat covariates using single species single season occupancy models. We estimated the parameters in two steps. First, we defined a global model for probability of habitat-use and modeled detection probability (p) either as an intercept-only model or as a function of covariates.  Second, we modeled the habitat-use probability (Ψ) incorporating the top-ranked model for probability of detection (p) in the first step. A total effort of 2,520 camera-trap-nights resulted in 63 independent detections of dholes at 27 locations in PNP. The naïve occupancy estimate of Dholes in PNP was 0.21. The estimated probability of habitat-use (Ψ) and detection (p) were 0.47±0.27 and 0.24±0.05, respectively. Grassland availability (βG= 8.00±3.09), terrain ruggedness index (βTRI= 0.73±0.34), and Sambar (prey) presence (βS= 1.06±0.51) strong positive association, whereas, stream/exposed surfaces (βSES= -0.45±0.43) had negative association with the habitat use by Dholes. Similarly, detection probability was positively associated with presence of Sambar (βS= 2.44±1.02) but negatively associated with streams/exposed surfaces (βSES= -0.99±0.32) and terrain ruggedness (βTRI= -0.09±0.23). Our study provides quantitative information on the ecology of Dholes with potential applications for improving their conservation efforts in Nepal.

Habitat occupancy of sloth bear Melursus ursinus in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Mammals have experienced a massive decline in their populations and geographic ranges worldwide. The sloth bear, Melursus ursinus (Shaw, 1791), is one of many species facing conservation threats. Despite being endangered in Nepal, decades of inattention to the situation have hindered their conservation and management. We assessed the distribution and patterns of habitat use by sloth bears in Chitwan National Park (CNP), Nepal. We conducted sign surveys from March to June, 2020, in 4 × 4 km grids (n = 45). We collected detection/non-detection data along a 4-km trail that was divided into 20 continuous segments of 200 m each. We obtained environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic covariates to understand determinants of sloth bear habitat occupancy. The data were analyzed using the single-species single-season occupancy method, with a spatially correlated detection. Using repeated observations, these models accounted for the imperfect detectability of the species to provide robust estimates of habitat occupancy. The model-averaged occupancy estimate for the sloth bear was 69% and the detection probability was 0.25. The probability of habitat occupancy by sloth bears increased with the presence of termites and fruits and in rugged, dry, open, undisturbed habitats. Our results indicate that the sloth bear is elusive, functionally unique, and widespread in CNP. Future conservation interventions and action plans aimed at sloth bear management must adequately consider their habitat requirements.

On the relationship between environmental suitability and habitat use for three neotropical mammals

Recent studies have used occupancy models (OM) and ecological niche models (ENM) to provide a better understanding of species’ distributions at different scales. One of the main ideas underlying the theoretical foundations of both OM and ENM is that they are positively related to abundance: higher occupancy implies higher density and more suitable areas are likely to have more abundant populations. Here, we analyze the relationship between habitat use measured in terms of occupancy probabilities from OM and environmental suitability derived from ENM in three different Neotropical mammal species: Leopardus wiedii, Cuniculus paca, and Dasypus novemcinctus. For ENM, we used climatic and vegetation cover variables and implemented a model calibration and selection protocol to select the most competitive models. For OM, we used a single-species, single-season model with site covariates for camera-trap data from six different sites throughout the Neotropical realm. Covariates included vegetation percentage, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference water index, and elevation. For each site, we fit OM using all possible combinations of variables and selected the most competitive (ΔAICc &lt; 2) to build an average OM. We explored relationships between estimated suitability and occupancy values using Spearman correlation analysis. Relationships between ENM and OM tended to be positive for the three Neotropical mammals, but the strength varied among sites, which could be explained by local factors such as site characteristics and conservation status of areas. We conjecture that ENM are suitable to understand spatial patterns at coarser geographic scales because the concept of the niche is about the species as a whole, whereas OM are more relevant to explain the distribution locally, likely reflecting transient dynamics of populations resulting from many local factors such as community composition and biotic processes.

Fine-scale ecological and anthropogenic variables predict the habitat use and detectability of sloth bears in the Churia habitat of east Nepal

Once widespread throughout the tropical forests of the Indian Subcontinent, the sloth bears have suffered a rapid range collapse and local extirpations in the recent decades. A significant portion of their current distribution range is situated outside of the protected areas (PAs). These unprotected sloth bear populations are under tremendous human pressures, but little is known about the patterns and determinants of their occurrence in most of these regions. The situation is more prevalent in Nepal where virtually no systematic information is available for sloth bears living outside of the PAs. We undertook a spatially replicated sign survey-based single-season occupancy study intending to overcome this information gap for the sloth bear populations residing in the Trijuga forest of southeast Nepal. Sloth bear sign detection histories and field-based covariates data were collected between 2 October and 3 December 2020 at the 74 randomly chosen 4-km2 grid cells. From our results, the model-averaged site use probability (ψ ± SE) was estimated to be 0.432 ± 0.039, which is a 13% increase from the naïve estimate (0.297) not accounting for imperfect detections of sloth bear signs. The presence of termite mound and the distance to the nearest water source were the most important variables affecting the habitat use probability of sloth bears. The average site-level detectability (p ± SE) of sloth bear signs was estimated to be 0.195 ± 0.003 and was significantly determined by the index of human disturbances. We recommend considering the importance of fine-scale ecological and anthropogenic factors in predicting the sloth bear-habitat relationships across their range in the Churia habitat of Nepal, and more specifically in the unprotected areas.

Leopard (Panthera pardus) occupancy in the Chure range of Nepal

Conservation of large carnivores such as leopards requires large and interconnected habitats. Despite the wide geographic range of the leopard globally, only 17% of their habitat is within protected areas. Leopards are widely distributed in Nepal, but their population status and occupancy are poorly understood. We carried out the sign-based leopard occupancy survey across the entire Chure range (~19,000 km2) to understand the habitat occupancy along with the covariates affecting their occupancy. Leopard signs were obtained from in 70 out of 223 grids surveyed, with a naïve leopard occupancy of 0.31. The model-averaged leopard occupancy was estimated to be 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a replication-level detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model shows the additive effect of wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density positively affecting the leopard occupancy. The detection probability of leopard was higher outside the protected areas, less in the high NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) areas, and higher in the areas with livestock presence. The presence of wild boar was strong predictor of leopard occupancy followed by the presence of livestock, ruggedness, and human population density. Leopard occupancy was higher in west Chure (0.70 ± SE 0.047) having five protected areas compared with east Chure (0.46 ± SE 0.043) with no protected areas. Protected areas and prey species had positive influence on leopard occupancy in west Chure range. Similarly in the east Chure, the leopard occupancy increased with prey, NDVI, and terrain ruggedness. Enhanced law enforcement and mass awareness activities are necessary to reduce poaching/killing of wild ungulates and leopards in the Chure range to increase leopard occupancy. In addition, maintaining the sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human-leopard conflict in the Chure range.

Landscape variables affecting the Himalayan red panda Ailurus fulgens occupancy in wet season along the mountains in Nepal

The Himalayan red panda is an endangered mammal endemic to Eastern Himalayan and South Western China. Data deficiency often hinders understanding of their spatial distribution and habitat use, which is critical for species conservation planning. We used sign surveys covering the entire potential red panda habitat over 22,453 km² along the mid-hills and high mountains encompassing six conservation complexes in Nepal. To estimate red panda distribution using an occupancy framework, we walked 1,451 km along 446 sampled grid cells out of 4,631 grid cells in the wet season of 2016. We used single-species, single-season models to make inferences regarding covariates influencing detection and occupancy. We estimated the probability of detection and occupancy based on model-averaging techniques and drew predictive maps showing site-specific occupancy estimates. We observed red panda in 213 grid cells and found covariates such as elevation, distance to water sources, and bamboo cover influencing the occupancy. Red panda detection probability p^(SE) estimated at 0.70 (0.02). We estimated red panda site occupancy (sampled grid cells) and landscape occupancy (across the potential habitat) Ψ^(SE) at 0.48 (0.01) and 0.40 (0.02) respectively. The predictive map shows a site-specific variation in the spatial distribution of this arboreal species along the priority red panda conservation complexes. Data on their spatial distribution may serve as a baseline for future studies and are expected to aid in species conservation planning in priority conservation complexes.

Estimating occupancy of Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) in a protected and non-protected area of Nepal

Chinese pangolin is the world's most heavily trafficked small mammal for luxury food and traditional medicine. Although their populations are declining worldwide, it is difficult to monitor their population status because of its rarity and nocturnal behavior. We used site occupancy (presence/absence) sampling of pangolin sign (i.e., active burrows) in a protected (Gaurishankar Conservation Area) and non-protected area (Ramechhap District) of central Nepal with multiple environmental covariates to understand factors that may influence occupancy of Chinese pangolin. The average Chinese pangolin occupancy and detection probabilities were Ψ ^  ± SE = 0.77 ± 0.08; p ^  ± SE = 0.27 ± 0.05, respectively. The detection probabilities of Chinese pangolin were higher in PA ( p ^  ± SE = 0.33 ± 0.03) than compared to non-PA ( p ^  ± SE = 0.25 ± 0.04). The most important covariates for Chinese pangolin detectability were red soil (97%), food source (97.6%), distance to road (97.9%), and protected area (97%) and with respect to occupancy was elevation (97.9%). We recommended use of remote cameras and potentially GPS collar surveys to further investigate habitat use and site occupancy at regular intervals to provide more reliable conservation assessments.

Predicting preferred prey of Sumatran tigers Panthera tigris sumatrae via spatio-temporal overlap

Encounter rates of carnivores with prey are dependent on spatial and temporal overlap, and are often highest with their preferred prey. The Critically Endangered Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae is dependent on prey populations, but little is known about its prey preferences. We collected camera-trap data for 7 years (2010–2016) in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park, Sumatra, to investigate spatial and temporal overlap of tigers with potential prey species. We also developed a novel method to predict predator–prey encounter rates and potential prey preferences from camera-trap data. We documented at least 10 individual tigers, with an overall detection rate of 0.24 detections/100 trap nights. Tigers exhibited a diurnal activity pattern and had highest temporal overlap with wild boar Sus scrofa and pig-tailed macaques Macaca nemestrina, but highest spatial overlap with wild boar and sambar deer Rusa unicolor. We created a spatial and temporal composite score and three additional composite scores with adjustments for the spatial overlap and preferred prey mass. Wild boars ranked highest for all composite scores, followed by sambar deer, and both are known as preferred tiger prey in other areas. Spatial and temporal overlaps are often considered as separate indices, but a composite score may facilitate better predictions of encounter rates and potential prey preferences. Our findings suggest that prey management efforts in this area should focus on wild boar and sambar deer, to ensure a robust prey base for this Critically Endangered tiger population.

Gut microbiota and their putative metabolic functions in fragmented Bengal tiger population of Nepal

Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) serve a pivotal role as an apex predator in forest ecosystems. To increase our knowledge on factors impacting the viability and health of this endangered species, we studied the gut microbiota in 32 individual Bengal tigers from three geographically separated areas (Chitwan National Park (CNP), Bardia National Park (BNP) and Suklaphanta Wildlife Reserve (SWR)) in Nepal, using noninvasive genetic sampling methods. Gut microbiota influence the immune system, impact various physiological functions, and modulates metabolic reactions, that ultimately impact the host health, behavior and development. Across the tiger populations in Nepal, we found significant differences in the composition of microbial communities based on their geographic locations. Specifically, we detected significant differences between CNP and the other two protected areas (CNP vs BNP: pseudo t = 1.944, P = 0.006; CNP vs SWR: pseudo t = 1.9942, P = 0.0071), but no differences between BNP and SWR. This mirrors what has been found for tiger gene flow in the same populations, suggesting gut microbiota composition and host gene flow may be linked. Furthermore, predictive metagenome functional content analysis (PICRUSt) revealed a higher functional enrichment and diversity for significant gut microbiota in the Chitwan tiger population and the lowest enrichment and diversity in Suklaphanta. The CNP tiger population contained higher proportions of microbiota that are associated with predicted functions relevant for metabolism of amino acid, lipid, xenobiotics biodegradation, terpenoides and polyketides than the SWR population. We conclude the tiger population structure, gut microbiota profile and associated functional metabolic categories are correlated, with geographically most separated CNP and SWR tiger population having the most distinct and different host genotype and microbiota profiles. Our work dramatically expands the understanding of tiger microbiota in wild populations and provides a valuable case study on how to investigate genetic diversity at different hierarchical levels, including hosts as well as their microbial communities.

Twisted tale of the tiger: the case of inappropriate data and deficient science

Publications in peer-reviewed journals are often looked upon as tenets on which future scientific thought is built. Published information is not always flawless and errors in published research should be expediently reported, preferably by a peer-review process. We review a recent publication by Gopalaswamy et al. (10.1111/2041-210X.12351) that challenges the use of "double sampling" in large-scale animal surveys. Double sampling is often resorted to as an established economical and practical approach for large-scale surveys since it calibrates abundance indices against absolute abundance, thereby potentially addressing the statistical shortfalls of indices. Empirical data used by Gopalaswamy et al. (10.1111/2041-210X.12351) to test their theoretical model, relate to tiger sign and tiger abundance referred to as an Index-Calibration experiment (IC-Karanth). These data on tiger abundance and signs should be paired in time and space to qualify as a calibration experiment for double sampling, but original data of IC-Karanth show lags of (up to) several years. Further, data points used in the paper do not match the original sources. We show that by use of inappropriate and incorrect data collected through a faulty experimental design, poor parameterization of their theoretical model, and selectively picked estimates from literature on detection probability, the inferences of this paper are highly questionable. We highlight how the results of Gopalaswamy et al. were further distorted in popular media. If left unaddressed, the paper of Gopalaswamy et al. could have serious implications on statistical design of large-scale animal surveys by propagating unreliable inferences.

Elephant (Elephas maximus) temporal activity, distribution, and habitat use patterns on the tiger's forgotten trails across the seasonally dry, subtropical, hilly Churia forests of Nepal

Understanding spatial distribution, habitat use, and temporal activity patterns is important for species conservation planning. This information especially is crucial for mega herbivores like elephants as their ranging patterns encompass a myriad of habitats types. Churia habitat is geological fragile yet important for wildlife in Nepal and India. We used camera trapping and sign surveys covering 536 km2 of Churia and surrounding areas within Chitwan National Park. Across 152 trapping locations, we accumulated 2,097 trap nights in a 60-day survey during the winter season of 2010-11. We used a non-parametric kernel density function to analyze winter activity patterns of elephants detected in camera-traps. Additionally, we walked 643 km over 76 grid cells in two surveys (winter and summer) to estimate elephant distribution and intensity of habitat use using an occupancy framework. Multi-season models allowed us to make seasonal (winter versus summer) inferences regarding changes in habitat use based on covariates influencing use and detection. We photographed 25 mammalian species including elephants with calves with a trapping rate of 2.72 elephant photos events per 100 trap nights. Elephant winter activity pattern was found to be mainly nocturnal, with crepuscular peaks. Covariates such as normalized differential vegetation index and terrain ruggedness positively influenced elephant spatial distribution and habitat use patterns within the Churia habitat. We also found lower elephant habitat use ([Formula: see text]) of Churia in winter 0.51 (0.02) than in summer 0.57 (0.02). Elephants heavily used the eastern portion of Churia in both seasons (67-69%). Overall, Churia habitat, which is often ignored, clearly is used by elephants, with increases in summer use in the west and high use year-round in the east, and thus should no longer be neglected or forgotten in species conservation planning.

Species, sex and geo-location identification of seized tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) parts in Nepal-A molecular forensic approach

Tiger (Panthera tigris) populations are in danger across their entire range due to habitat loss, poaching and the demand for tiger parts. The Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) is an endangered apex predator with a population size estimated to be less than 200 in Nepal. In spite of strict wildlife protection laws, illegal trade of tiger parts is increasing; and Nepal has become one of the major sources and transit routes for poached wildlife parts. Identification of wildlife parts is often challenging for law enforcement officials due to inadequate training and lack of available tools. Here, we describe a molecular forensic approach to gain insight into illegally trafficked tiger parts seized across Nepal. We created Nepal's first comprehensive reference genetic database of wild tigers through the Nepal Tiger Genome Project (2011-2013). This database has nuclear DNA microsatellite genotype and sex profiles, including geo-spatial information, of over 60% (n = 120) of the wild tigers of Nepal. We analyzed 15 putative cases of confiscated poached tiger parts and all were confirmed to be of tiger. Ten samples were identified as male and five were female. We determined probable geo-source location for 9 of the 14 samples with 6-8 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci using inferences from four different statistical assignment methods. Six samples were assigned to Bardia National Park and one of these was an exact match to a female tiger previously profiled in our fecal DNA reference database. Two tiger samples were assigned to Shuklaphanta Wildlife Reserve and one to Chitwan National Park. We are unable to definitively assign five tiger samples which could be offspring dispersers or might have come from tiger population outside of Nepal. Our study revealed that the western region, particularly Bardia National Park, is a poaching hotspot for illegal tiger trade in Nepal. We present feasibility of using molecular forensic based evidence to incriminate criminals in a court of law in the fight against wildlife crime.

Identifying important conservation areas for the clouded leopard Neofelis nebulosa in a mountainous landscape: Inference from spatial modeling techniques

The survival of large carnivores is increasingly precarious due to extensive human development that causes the habitat loss and fragmentation. Habitat selection is influenced by anthropogenic as well as environmental factors, and understanding these relationships is important for conservation management. We assessed the environmental and anthropogenic variables that influence site use of clouded leopard Neofelis nebulosa in Bhutan, estimated their population density, and used the results to predict the species’ site use across Bhutan. We used a large camera‐trap dataset from the national tiger survey to estimate for clouded leopards, for the first time in Bhutan, (1) population density using spatially explicit capture–recapture models and (2) site‐use probability using occupancy models accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Population density was estimated at D^Bayesian=0.40 (0.10 SD) and D^maximum−likelihood=0.30 (0.12 SE) per 100 km². Clouded leopard site use was positively associated with forest cover and distance to river while negatively associated with elevation. Mean site‐use probability (from the Bayesian spatial model) was ψ^spatial=0.448 (0.076 SD). When spatial autocorrelation was ignored, the probability of site use was overestimated, ψ^nonspatial=0.826 (0.066 SD). Predictive mapping allowed us to identify important conservation areas and priority habitats to sustain the future of these elusive, ambassador felids and associated guilds. Multiple sites in the south, many of them outside of protected areas, were identified as habitats suitable for this species, adding evidence to conservation planning for clouded leopards in continental South Asia.

Assessment of genetic diversity, population structure, and gene flow of tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) across Nepal's Terai Arc Landscape

With fewer than 200 tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) left in Nepal, that are generally confined to five protected areas across the Terai Arc Landscape, genetic studies are needed to provide crucial information on diversity and connectivity for devising an effective country-wide tiger conservation strategy. As part of the Nepal Tiger Genome Project, we studied landscape change, genetic variation, population structure, and gene flow of tigers across the Terai Arc Landscape by conducting Nepal’s first comprehensive and systematic scat-based, non-invasive genetic survey. Of the 770 scat samples collected opportunistically from five protected areas and six presumed corridors, 412 were tiger (57%). Out of ten microsatellite loci, we retain eight markers that were used in identifying 78 individual tigers. We used this dataset to examine population structure, genetic variation, contemporary gene flow, and potential population bottlenecks of tigers in Nepal. We detected three genetic clusters consistent with three demographic sub-populations and found moderate levels of genetic variation (H_e = 0.61, A_R = 3.51) and genetic differentiation (F_ST = 0.14) across the landscape. We detected 3–7 migrants, confirming the potential for dispersal-mediated gene flow across the landscape. We found evidence of a bottleneck signature likely caused by large-scale land-use change documented in the last two centuries in the Terai forest. Securing tiger habitat including functional forest corridors is essential to enhance gene flow across the landscape and ensure long-term tiger survival. This requires cooperation among multiple stakeholders and careful conservation planning to prevent detrimental effects of anthropogenic activities on tigers.

Tigers in the Terai: Strong evidence for meta-population dynamics contributing to tiger recovery and conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape

The source populations of tigers are mostly confined to protected areas, which are now becoming isolated. A landscape scale conservation strategy should strive to facilitate dispersal and survival of dispersing tigers by managing habitat corridors that enable tigers to traverse the matrix with minimal conflict. We present evidence for tiger dispersal along transboundary protected areas complexes in the Terai Arc Landscape, a priority tiger landscape in Nepal and India, by comparing camera trap data, and through population models applied to the long term camera trap data sets. The former showed that 11 individual tigers used the corridors that connected the transboundary protected areas. The estimated population growth rates using the minimum observed population size in two protected areas in Nepal, Bardia National Park and Suklaphanta National Park showed that the increases were higher than expected from growth rates due to in situ reproduction alone. These lines of evidence suggests that tigers are recolonizing Nepal's protected areas from India, after a period of population decline, and that the tiger populations in the transboundary protected areas complexes may be maintained as meta-population. Our results demonstrate the importance of adopting a landscape-scale approach to tiger conservation, especially to improve population recovery and long term population persistence.

Conserving tigers in working landscapes

Tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation efforts in Asia are focused on protected areas embedded in human-dominated landscapes. A system of protected areas is an effective conservation strategy for many endangered species if the network is large enough to support stable metapopulations. The long-term conservation of tigers requires that the species be able to meet some of its life-history needs beyond the boundaries of small protected areas and within the working landscape, including multiple-use forests with logging and high human use. However, understanding of factors that promote or limit the occurrence of tigers in working landscapes is incomplete. We assessed the relative influence of protection status, prey occurrence, extent of grasslands, intensity of human use, and patch connectivity on tiger occurrence in the 5400 km(2) Central Terai Landscape of India, adjacent to Nepal. Two observer teams independently surveyed 1009 km of forest trails and water courses distributed across 60 166-km(2) cells. In each cell, the teams recorded detection of tiger signs along evenly spaced trail segments. We used occupancy models that permitted multiscale analysis of spatially correlated data to estimate cell-scale occupancy and segment-scale habitat use by tigers as a function of management and environmental covariates. Prey availability and habitat quality, rather than protected-area designation, influenced tiger occupancy. Tiger occupancy was low in some protected areas in India that were connected to extensive areas of tiger habitat in Nepal, which brings into question the efficacy of current protection and management strategies in both India and Nepal. At a finer spatial scale, tiger habitat use was high in trail segments associated with abundant prey and large grasslands, but it declined as human and livestock use increased. We speculate that riparian grasslands may provide tigers with critical refugia from human activity in the daytime and thereby promote tiger occurrence in some multiple-use forests. Restrictions on human-use in high-quality tiger habitat in multiple-use forests may complement existing protected areas and collectively promote the persistence of tiger populations in working landscapes.

Tigers (Panthera tigris) respond to fine spatial-scale habitat factors: occupancy-based habitat association of tigers in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Context Source populations of many large carnivores such as tigers (Panthera tigris) are confined within small wildlife refuges in human-dominated landscapes. Appropriate management of these populations may warrant understanding fine-scale use of habitat. Aims The aim of the present study is to understand the fine spatial-scale habitat associations of tigers in Chitwan National Park, Nepal. Methods We conducted camera-trap surveys across the park and applied an occupancy modelling approach to assess the probability of tiger detection and occurrence as a function of fine-scale habitat covariates. Results Tiger detection probability as a function of fine-scale habitat covariates was ≤0.20 compared with that of a constant detection model. Detectability patterns were best explained by models incorporating the effect of prey, slope and landcover type. Similarly, the best occupancy model incorporating the detection probability included prey, landcover type, water and slope. Tiger occurrence patterns were positively associated with prey availability and certain landcover types such as grasslands. Contrary to expectation, occurrence probability decreased further from human settlements. However, as expected, the occurrence of tigers was higher in proximity to water sources. Conclusions Both tiger detection and occurrence are influenced by fine-scale habitat factors, including prey availability. In small protected areas, individuals may persist at high population densities by intensively focusing their activity on small portions of their home ranges. Implications Our study provided insight into the fine spatial-scale occurrence probability of tigers, and thereby aids in developing appropriate habitat management strategies at the protected-area level. Our approach is broadly applicable to the robust assessment of fine-scale wildlife–habitat associations of many wide-ranging species that are ecologically ‘confined’ in smaller protected areas.

On the high trail: examining determinants of site use by the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Qilianshan, China

There is a need for simple and robust techniques for assessment and monitoring of populations of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia to inform the development of action plans for snow leopard conservation. We explored the use of occupancy modelling to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic features on snow leopard site-use patterns. We conducted a camera trap survey across 480 km2 in Gansu Province, China, and used data from 60 camera traps to estimate probabilities of site use and detection using the single season occupancy model. We assessed the influence of three covariates on site use by snow leopards: elevation, the presence of blue sheep Pseudois nayaur and the presence of human disturbance (distance to roads). We recorded 76 captures of snow leopards over 2,906 trap-days, representing a mean capture success of 2.62 captures per 100 trap-days. Elevation had the strongest influence on site use, with the probability of site use increasing with altitude, whereas the influence of presence of prey and distance to roads was relatively weak. Our findings indicate the need for practical and robust techniques to appraise determinants of site use by snow leopards, especially in the context of the limited resources available for such work.

Planning tiger recovery: Understanding intraspecific variation for effective conservation

Although significantly more money is spent on the conservation of tigers than on any other threatened species, today only 3200 to 3600 tigers roam the forests of Asia, occupying only 7% of their historical range. Despite the global significance of and interest in tiger conservation, global approaches to plan tiger recovery are partly impeded by the lack of a consensus on the number of tiger subspecies or management units, because a comprehensive analysis of tiger variation is lacking. We analyzed variation among all nine putative tiger subspecies, using extensive data sets of several traits [morphological (craniodental and pelage), ecological, molecular]. Our analyses revealed little variation and large overlaps in each trait among putative subspecies, and molecular data showed extremely low diversity because of a severe Late Pleistocene population decline. Our results support recognition of only two subspecies: the Sunda tiger, Panthera tigris sondaica, and the continental tiger, Panthera tigris tigris, which consists of two (northern and southern) management units. Conservation management programs, such as captive breeding, reintroduction initiatives, or trans-boundary projects, rely on a durable, consistent characterization of subspecies as taxonomic units, defined by robust multiple lines of scientific evidence rather than single traits or ad hoc descriptions of one or few specimens. Our multiple-trait data set supports a fundamental rethinking of the conventional tiger taxonomy paradigm, which will have profound implications for the management of in situ and ex situ tiger populations and boost conservation efforts by facilitating a pragmatic approach to tiger conservation management worldwide.

Trophic scaling and occupancy analysis reveals a lion population limited by top-down anthropogenic pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique

The African lion (Panthera Leo) has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent's remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/non-detection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km²vs. 3.05 lions/100 km²). The proportion of area occupied by lions was Ψ = 0.439 (SE = 0.121), or approximately 44% of a 2 400 km² sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first empirical quantification of a population that future change can be measured against.