Can distribution models help refine inventory-based estimates of conservation priority? A case study in the Eastern Arc forests of Tanzania and Kenya

Some bats are here: Reducing the Wallacean shortfall of bats in the amazon

The Amazon rainforest has approximately 23% of its sampled area dedicated to bats, making it one of the least sampled and most diverse regions for bats in Brazil. The lack of sampling results in a lack of knowledge regarding the accurate geographical distribution of bat species. This lack is referred to as the Wallacean shortfall, which should be addressed with primary data obtained from in situ collections. However, the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help alleviate this gap. The states of Pará and Acre are located in the Brazilian Amazon. So, our objective is to decrease the Wallacean shortfall concerning Amazonian bat species. To achieve this, we provide (i) a list of bat species sampled in the states of Pará and Acre in the last 5 years (2017 to 2022); (ii) the potential distribution of species considered as new occurrences for the region; and (iii) the potential distribution of species classified as Data Deficient (DD) and Near Threatened (NT) according to the IUCN classification. With 96 nights of collection and 129,600 m2h of mist netting, we obtained 75 bat species, with an estimated total of 94.78 species. Additionally, 21 species were considered as range extensions. The Brazilian Amazon region has a vast geographic expanse and few established research centers, resulting in a limited sampling of bats and other biological groups. Furthermore, we draw attention to the significant number of bat species with expanded geographical distributions, with 21 out of the 75 sampled species. This should be a reminder that primary biogeographic data is still necessary for the neotropical region.

A biogeographical appraisal of the threatened South East Africa Montane Archipelago ecoregion

Recent biological surveys of ancient inselbergs in southern Malawi and northern Mozambique have led to the discovery and description of many species new to science, and overlapping centres of endemism across multiple taxa. Combining these endemic taxa with data on geology and climate, we propose the 'South East Africa Montane Archipelago' (SEAMA) as a distinct ecoregion of global biological importance. The ecoregion encompasses 30 granitic inselbergs reaching > 1000 m above sea level, hosting the largest (Mt Mabu) and smallest (Mt Lico) mid-elevation rainforests in southern Africa, as well as biologically unique montane grasslands. Endemic taxa include 127 plants, 45 vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and 45 invertebrate species (butterflies, freshwater crabs), and two endemic genera of plants and reptiles. Existing dated phylogenies of endemic animal lineages suggests this endemism arose from divergence events coinciding with repeated isolation of these mountains from the pan-African forests, together with the mountains' great age and relative climatic stability. Since 2000, the SEAMA has lost 18% of its primary humid forest cover (up to 43% in some sites)-one of the highest deforestation rates in Africa. Urgently rectifying this situation, while addressing the resource needs of local communities, is a global priority for biodiversity conservation.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

How Ecocentrism and Anthropocentrism Influence Human–Environment Relationships in a Kenyan Biodiversity Hotspot

Protecting nature and securing human livelihood needs are very conflicting especially in biodiversity-rich areas of the Global South. The Taita Hills Cloud Forest (THCF) in Kenya remains one of the top biodiversity hotspots worldwide. Environmental data for the area has been studied for decades. Sociodemographic analyses on inequality have been conducted by governmental and non-governmental organizations. Little has been done yet to correlate them to investigate their relationships. A lot of attention has been paid to the connection between agricultural practices and impacts on the environment, but human–environment relationships are much more complex, especially in Kenya’s biodiversity-rich areas. This paper assesses the local population’s perception of its surrounding environment and investigates their understanding of nature conservation. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, 300 survey respondents were classified concerning their nature ethical views (particularly anthropocentrism and ecocentrism). By using grounded theory, data were regularly reviewed during the entire research, to assemble an evaluable and comparable dataset. Our study reveals that gender has a distinct impact on whether the interviewees have an anthropocentric or ecocentric perspective of nature and conservation. Moreover, there is a strong need for an intermediate bridge between anthropocentrism and ecocentrism.

Evaluating the data quality of iNaturalist termite records

Citizen science (CS) contributes to the knowledge about species distributions, which is a critical foundation in the studies of invasive species, biological conservation, and response to climatic change. In this study, we assessed the value of CS for termites worldwide. First, we compared the abundance and species diversity of geo-tagged termite records in iNaturalist to that of the University of Florida termite collection (UFTC) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Second, we quantified how the combination of these data sources affected the number of genera that satisfy data requirements for ecological niche modeling. Third, we assessed the taxonomic correctness of iNaturalist termite records in the Americas at the genus and family level through expert review based on photo identification. Results showed that iNaturalist records were less abundant than those in the UFTC and in GBIF, although they complemented the latter two in selected world regions. A combination of GBIF and the UFTC led to a significant increase in the number of termite genera satisfying the abundance criterion for niche modeling compared to either of those two sources alone, whereas adding iNaturalist observations as a third source only had a moderate effect on the number of termite genera satisfying that criterion. Although research grade observations in iNaturalist require a community-supported and agreed upon identification (ID) below the family taxonomic rank, our results indicated that iNaturalist data do not exhibit a higher taxonomic classification accuracy when they are designated research grade. This means that non-research grade observations can be used to more completely map the presence of termite locations in certain geographic locations without significantly jeopardizing data quality. We concluded that CS termite observation records can, to some extent, complement expert termite collections in terms of geographic coverage and species diversity. Based on recent data contribution patterns in CS data, the role of CS termite contributions is expected to grow significantly in the near future.

Spatial and taxonomic biases in bat records: Drivers and conservation implications in a megadiverse country

Biases in data availability have serious consequences on scientific inferences that can be derived. The potential consequences of these biases could be more detrimental in the less-studied megadiverse regions, often characterized by high biodiversity and serious risks of human threats, as conservation and management actions could be misdirected. Here, focusing on 134 bat species in Mexico, we analyze spatial and taxonomic biases and their drivers in occurrence data; and identify priority areas for further data collection which are currently under-sampled or at future environmental risk. We collated a comprehensive database of 26,192 presence-only bat records in Mexico to characterize taxonomic and spatial biases and relate them to species' characteristics (range size and foraging behavior). Next, we examined variables related to accessibility, species richness and security to explain the spatial patterns in occurrence records. Finally, we compared the spatial distributions of existing data and future threats to these species to highlight those regions that are likely to experience an increased level of threats but are currently under-surveyed. We found taxonomic biases, where species with wider geographical ranges and narrow-space foragers (species easily captured with traditional methods), had more occurrence data. There was a significant oversampling toward tropical regions, and the presence and number of records was positively associated with areas of high topographic heterogeneity, road density, urban, and protected areas, and negatively associated with areas which were predicted to have future increases in temperature and precipitation. Sampling efforts for Mexican bats appear to have focused disproportionately on easily captured species, tropical regions, areas of high species richness and security; leading to under-sampling in areas of high future threats. These biases could substantially influence the assessment of current status of, and future anthropogenic impacts on, this diverse species group in a tropical megadiverse country.

Conservation priorities and distribution patterns of vascular plant species along environmental gradients in Aberdare ranges forest

Distribution patterns of biodiversity and the factors influencing them are important in conservation and management strategies of natural resources. With impending threats from increased human population and global climatic changes, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of these patterns, more so in species-rich tropical montane ecosystems where little is known about plant diversity and distribution. Vascular species richness along elevation and climatic gradients of Aberdare ranges forest were explored. A total of 1337 species in 137 families, 606 genera, 82 subspecies and 80 varieties were recorded. Correlations, simple linear regression and Partial least square regression analysis were used to assess richness and diversity patterns of total plants, herbs, shrubs, climbers, arboreal and endemic species from 2000-4000 m above sea level. Total plant species richness showed a monotonic declining relationship with elevation with richness maxima at 2000-2100 m a.s.l., while endemic species richness had a positive unimodal increase along elevation with peaks at 3600-3700 m a.s.l. Herbs, shrubs, climbers and arboreal had significant negative relationships with altitude, excluding endemism which showed positive relations. In contrast, both air and soil temperatures had positive relationships with taxa richness groups and negative relations with endemic species. Elevation was found to have higher relative influence on plant richness and distribution in Aberdare ranges forest. For effective conservation and management of biodiversity in Aberdare, localized dynamic conservation interventions are recommended in contrast to broad and static strategies. Establishment of conservation zones and migration corridors are necessary to safeguard biodiversity in line with envisaged global climatic vicissitudes.

Seasonal habitat use by Elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Mole National Park of Ghana

To avoid unnecessary waste of limited resources and to help prioritize areas for conservation efforts, this study aimed to provide information on habitat use by elephants between the wet and dry seasons in the Mole National Park (MNP) of Ghana. We compiled coordinates of 516 locations of elephants' encounters, 256 for dry season and 260 for wet season. Using nine predictor variables, we modeled the probability of elephant's distribution in MNP. We threshold the models to "suitable" and "nonsuitable" regions of habitat use using the equal training sensitivity and specificity values of 0.177 and 0.181 for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Accuracy assessment of our models revealed a sensitivity score of 0.909 and 0.974, and a specificity of 0.579 and 0.753 for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. A TSS of 0.488 was also recorded for the dry season and 0.727 for the wet season indicating a good model agreement. Our model predicts habitat use to be confined to the southern portion of MNP due to elevation difference and a relatively steep slope that separates the northern regions of the park from the south. Regions of habitat use for the wet season were 856 km2 and reduced significantly to 547.68 km2 in the dry season. We observed significant overlap (327.24 km2) in habitat use regions between the wet and dry seasons (Schoener's D = 0.922 and Hellinger's-based I = 0.991). DEM, proximity to waterholes, and saltlicks were identified as the key variables that contributed to the prediction. We recommend construction of temporal camps in regions of habitat use that are far from the headquarters area for effective management of elephants. Also, an increase in water point's density around the headquarters areas and selected dry areas of the park will further decrease elephant's range and hence a relatively less resource use in monitoring and patrols.

A new species in the tree genus Polyceratocarpus (Annonaceae) from the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania

Polyceratocarpus askhambryan-iringae, an endemic tree species of Annonaceae from the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, is described and illustrated. The new species is identified as a member of the genus Polyceratocarpus by the combination of staminate and bisexual flowers, axillary inflorescences, subequal outer and inner petals, and multi-seeded monocarps with pitted seeds. From Polyceratocarpus scheffleri, with which it has previously been confused, it differs in the longer pedicels, smaller and thinner petals, shorter bracts, and by generally smaller, less curved monocarps that have a clear stipe and usually have fewer seeds. Because Polyceratocarpus askhambryan-iringae has a restricted extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, and ongoing degradation of its forest habitat, we recommend classification of it as Endangered (EN) on the IUCN Red List.

Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.

Post-fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source-sink population network

The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long-standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15-year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta-Ne to meta-Nc was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while Ne /Nc ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low Nc in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.

Sex-biased dispersal at different geographical scales in a cooperative breeder from fragmented rainforest

Dispersal affects both social behavior and population structure and is therefore a key determinant of long-term population persistence. However, dispersal strategies and responses to spatial habitat alteration may differ between sexes. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal variation in ten polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci of male and female Cabanis's greenbuls (Phyllastrephuscabanisi), a cooperative breeder of Afrotropical rainforest, to quantify rates of gene flow and fine-grained genetic structuring within and among fragmented populations. We found genetic evidence for female-biased dispersal at small spatial scales, but not at the landscape level. Local autocorrelation analysis provided evidence of positive genetic structure within 300 m distance ranges, which is consistent with behavioral observations of short-distance natal dispersal. At a landscape scale, individual-based autocorrelation values decreased over time while levels of admixture increased, possibly indicating increased gene flow over the past decade.

Quantifying species' range shifts in relation to climate change: a case study of Abies spp. in China

Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs). However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyze and summarize, and comparisons between the various models are difficult to make when the number of species modeled is large. Maxent was used to model the distribution of 12 Abies spp. in China under current and possible future climate conditions. Two fuzzy set defined indices, range increment index (I) and range overlapping index (O), were used to quantify range shifts of the chosen species. Correlation analyses were used to test the relationships between these indices and species distribution characteristics. Our results show that Abies spp. range increments (I) were highly correlated with longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O) was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. These fuzzy sets defined indices provide ideal measures of species range shifts because they are stable and threshold-free. They are reliable indices that allow large numbers of species to be described, modeled, and compared on a variety of taxonomic levels.