Application of cardiac electrophysiology simulations to pro-arrhythmic safety testing

Model-driven optimal experimental design for calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Models of the cardiomyocyte action potential have contributed immensely to the understanding of heart function, pathophysiology, and the origin of heart rhythm disturbances. However, action potential models are highly nonlinear, making them difficult to parameterise and limiting to describing 'average cell' dynamics, when cell-specific models would be ideal to uncover inter-cell variability but are too experimentally challenging to be achieved. Here, we focus on automatically designing experimental protocols that allow us to better identify cell-specific maximum conductance values for each major current type.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed an approach that applies optimal experimental designs to patch-clamp experiments, including both voltage-clamp and current-clamp experiments. We assessed the models calibrated to these new optimal designs by comparing them to the models calibrated to some of the commonly used designs in the literature. We showed that optimal designs are not only overall shorter in duration but also able to perform better than many of the existing experiment designs in terms of identifying model parameters and hence model predictive power.

CONCLUSIONS

For cardiac cellular electrophysiology, this approach will allow researchers to define their hypothesis of the dynamics of the system and automatically design experimental protocols that will result in theoretically optimal designs.

The Potential Mechanisms behind Loperamide-Induced Cardiac Arrhythmias Associated with Human Abuse and Extreme Overdose

Loperamide has been a safe and effective treatment for diarrhea for many years. However, many cases of cardiotoxicity with intentional abuse of loperamide ingestion have recently been reported. We evaluated loperamide in in vitro and in vivo cardiac safety models to understand the mechanisms for this cardiotoxicity. Loperamide slowed conduction (QRS-duration) starting at 0.3 µM [~1200-fold (×) its human Free Therapeutic Plasma Concentration; FTPC] and reduced the QT-interval and caused cardiac arrhythmias starting at 3 µM (~12,000× FTPC) in an isolated rabbit ventricular-wedge model. Loperamide also slowed conduction and elicited Type II/III A-V block in anesthetized guinea pigs at overdose exposures of 879× and 3802× FTPC. In ion-channel studies, loperamide inhibited hERG (IKr), INa, and ICa currents with IC50 values of 0.390 µM, 0.526 µM, and 4.091 µM, respectively (i.e., >1560× FTPC). Additionally, in silico trials in human ventricular action potential models based on these IC50s confirmed that loperamide has large safety margins at therapeutic exposures (≤600× FTPC) and confirmed repolarization abnormalities in the case of extreme doses of loperamide. The studies confirmed the large safety margin for the therapeutic use of loperamide but revealed that at the extreme exposure levels observed in human overdose, loperamide can cause a combination of conduction slowing and alterations in repolarization time, resulting in cardiac proarrhythmia. Loperamide's inhibition of the INa channel and hERG-mediated IKr are the most likely basis for this cardiac electrophysiological toxicity at overdose exposures. The cardiac toxic effects of loperamide at the overdoses could be aggravated by co-medication with other drug(s) causing ion channel inhibition.

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. We illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

Unraveling Structural Alerts in Marketed Drugs for Improving Adverse Outcome Pathway Framework of Drug-Induced QT Prolongation

In pharmaceutical treatment, many non-cardiac drugs carry the risk of prolonging the QT interval, which can lead to fatal cardiac complications such as torsades de points (TdP). Although the unexpected blockade of ion channels has been widely considered to be one of the main reasons for affecting the repolarization phase of the cardiac action potential and leading to QT interval prolongation, the lack of knowledge regarding chemical structures in drugs that may induce the prolongation of the QT interval remains a barrier to further understanding the underlying mechanism and developing an effective prediction strategy. In this study, we thoroughly investigated the differences in chemical structures between QT-prolonging drugs and drugs with no drug-induced QT prolongation (DIQT) concerns, based on the Drug-Induced QT Prolongation Atlas (DIQTA) dataset. Three categories of structural alerts (SAs), namely amines, ethers, and aromatic compounds, appeared in large quantities in QT-prolonging drugs, but rarely in drugs with no DIQT concerns, indicating a close association between SAs and the risk of DIQT. Moreover, using the molecular descriptors associated with these three categories of SAs as features, the structure–activity relationship (SAR) model for predicting the high risk of inducing QT interval prolongation of marketed drugs achieved recall rates of 72.5% and 80.0% for the DIQTA dataset and the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) dataset, respectively. Our findings may promote a better understanding of the mechanism of DIQT and facilitate research on cardiac adverse drug reactions in drug development.

Importance of modelling hERG binding in predicting drug-induced action potential prolongations for drug safety assessment

Reduction of the rapid delayed rectifier potassium current (IKr) via drug binding to the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel is a well recognised mechanism that can contribute to an increased risk of Torsades de Pointes. Mathematical models have been created to replicate the effects of channel blockers, such as reducing the ionic conductance of the channel. Here, we study the impact of including state-dependent drug binding in a mathematical model of hERG when translating hERG inhibition to action potential changes. We show that the difference in action potential predictions when modelling drug binding of hERG using a state-dependent model versus a conductance scaling model depends not only on the properties of the drug and whether the experiment achieves steady state, but also on the experimental protocols. Furthermore, through exploring the model parameter space, we demonstrate that the state-dependent model and the conductance scaling model generally predict different action potential prolongations and are not interchangeable, while at high binding and unbinding rates, the conductance scaling model tends to predict shorter action potential prolongations. Finally, we observe that the difference in simulated action potentials between the models is determined by the binding and unbinding rate, rather than the trapping mechanism. This study demonstrates the importance of modelling drug binding and highlights the need for improved understanding of drug trapping which can have implications for the uses in drug safety assessment.

Models of the cardiac L-type calcium current: A quantitative review

The L-type calcium current (I CaL ) plays a critical role in cardiac electrophysiology, and models ofI CaL are vital tools to predict arrhythmogenicity of drugs and mutations. Five decades of measuring and modelingI CaL have resulted in several competing theories (encoded in mathematical equations). However, the introduction of new models has not typically been accompanied by a data-driven critical comparison with previous work, so that it is unclear which model is best suited for any particular application. In this review, we describe and compare 73 published mammalianI CaL models and use simulated experiments to show that there is a large variability in their predictions, which is not substantially diminished when grouping by species or other categories. We provide model code for 60 models, list major data sources, and discuss experimental and modeling work that will be required to reduce this huge list of competing theories and ultimately develop a community consensus model ofI CaL . This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Artificial Intelligence-Driven Algorithm for Drug Effect Prediction on Atrial Fibrillation: An in silico Population of Models Approach

Background: Antiarrhythmic drugs are the first-line treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF), but their effect is highly dependent on the characteristics of the patient. Moreover, anatomical variability, and specifically atrial size, have also a strong influence on AF recurrence. Objective: We performed a proof-of-concept study using artificial intelligence (AI) that enabled us to identify proarrhythmic profiles based on pattern identification from in silico simulations. Methods: A population of models consisting of 127 electrophysiological profiles with a variation of nine electrophysiological variables (G _Na , I _NaK , G _K1, G _CaL , G _Kur , I _KCa , [Na] _ext , and [K] _ext and diffusion) was simulated using the Koivumaki atrial model on square planes corresponding to a normal (16 cm²) and dilated (22.5 cm²) atrium. The simple pore channel equation was used for drug implementation including three drugs (isoproterenol, flecainide, and verapamil). We analyzed the effect of every ionic channel combination to evaluate arrhythmia induction. A Random Forest algorithm was trained using the population of models and AF inducibility as input and output, respectively. The algorithm was trained with 80% of the data (N = 832) and 20% of the data was used for testing with a k-fold cross-validation (k = 5). Results: We found two electrophysiological patterns derived from the AI algorithm that was associated with proarrhythmic behavior in most of the profiles, where G _K1 was identified as the most important current for classifying the proarrhythmicity of a given profile. Additionally, we found different effects of the drugs depending on the electrophysiological profile and a higher tendency of the dilated tissue to fibrillate (Small tissue: 80 profiles vs Dilated tissue: 87 profiles). Conclusion: Artificial intelligence algorithms appear as a novel tool for electrophysiological pattern identification and analysis of the effect of antiarrhythmic drugs on a heterogeneous population of patients with AF.

Neuronal population models reveal specific linear conductance controllers sufficient to rescue preclinical disease phenotypes

Preclinical drug candidates are screened for their ability to ameliorate in vitro neuronal electrophysiology, and go/no-go decisions progress drugs to clinical trials based on population means across cells and animals. However, these measures do not mitigate clinical endpoint risk. Population-based modeling captures variability across multiple electrophysiological measures from healthy, disease, and drug phenotypes. We pursued optimizing therapeutic targets by identifying coherent sets of ion channel target modulations for recovering heterogeneous wild-type (WT) population excitability profiles from a heterogeneous Huntington's disease (HD) population. Our approach combines mechanistic simulations with population modeling of striatal neurons using evolutionary optimization algorithms to design 'virtual drugs'. We introduce efficacy metrics to score populations and rank virtual drug candidates. We found virtual drugs using heuristic approaches that performed better than single target modulators and standard classification methods. We compare a real drug to virtual candidates and demonstrate a novel in silico triaging method.

Immediate and Delayed Response of Simulated Human Atrial Myocytes to Clinically-Relevant Hypokalemia

Although plasma electrolyte levels are quickly and precisely regulated in the mammalian cardiovascular system, even small transient changes in K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, and/or Mg²⁺ can significantly alter physiological responses in the heart, blood vessels, and intrinsic (intracardiac) autonomic nervous system. We have used mathematical models of the human atrial action potential (AP) to explore the electrophysiological mechanisms that underlie changes in resting potential (V_r) and the AP following decreases in plasma K⁺, [K⁺]_o, that were selected to mimic clinical hypokalemia. Such changes may be associated with arrhythmias and are commonly encountered in patients (i) in therapy for hypertension and heart failure; (ii) undergoing renal dialysis; (iii) with any disease with acid-base imbalance; or (iv) post-operatively. Our study emphasizes clinically-relevant hypokalemic conditions, corresponding to [K⁺]_o reductions of approximately 1.5 mM from the normal value of 4 to 4.5 mM. We show how the resulting electrophysiological responses in human atrial myocytes progress within two distinct time frames: (i) Immediately after [K⁺]_o is reduced, the K⁺-sensing mechanism of the background inward rectifier current (I_K1) responds. Specifically, its highly non-linear current-voltage relationship changes significantly as judged by the voltage dependence of its region of outward current. This rapidly alters, and sometimes even depolarizes, V_r and can also markedly prolong the final repolarization phase of the AP, thus modulating excitability and refractoriness. (ii) A second much slower electrophysiological response (developing 5-10 minutes after [K⁺]_o is reduced) results from alterations in the intracellular electrolyte balance. A progressive shift in intracellular [Na⁺]_i causes a change in the outward electrogenic current generated by the Na⁺/K⁺ pump, thereby modifying V_r and AP repolarization and changing the human atrial electrophysiological substrate. In this study, these two effects were investigated quantitatively, using seven published models of the human atrial AP. This highlighted the important role of I_K1 rectification when analyzing both the mechanisms by which [K⁺]_o regulates V_r and how the AP waveform may contribute to "trigger" mechanisms within the proarrhythmic substrate. Our simulations complement and extend previous studies aimed at understanding key factors by which decreases in [K⁺]_o can produce effects that are known to promote atrial arrhythmias in human hearts.

Data integration for the numerical simulation of cardiac electrophysiology

The increasing availability of extensive and accurate clinical data is rapidly shaping cardiovascular care by improving the understanding of physiological and pathological mechanisms of the cardiovascular system and opening new frontiers in designing therapies and interventions. In this direction, mathematical and numerical models provide a complementary relevant tool, able not only to reproduce patient-specific clinical indicators but also to predict and explore unseen scenarios. With this goal, clinical data are processed and provided as inputs to the mathematical model, which quantitatively describes the physical processes that occur in the cardiac tissue. In this paper, the process of integration of clinical data and mathematical models is discussed. Some challenges and contributions in the field of cardiac electrophysiology are reported.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Accounting for variability in ion current recordings using a mathematical model of artefacts in voltage-clamp experiments

Mathematical models of ion channels, which constitute indispensable components of action potential models, are commonly constructed by fitting to whole-cell patch-clamp data. In a previous study, we fitted cell-specific models to hERG1a (Kv11.1) recordings simultaneously measured using an automated high-throughput system, and studied cell-cell variability by inspecting the resulting model parameters. However, the origin of the observed variability was not identified. Here, we study the source of variability by constructing a model that describes not just ion current dynamics, but the entire voltage-clamp experiment. The experimental artefact components of the model include: series resistance, membrane and pipette capacitance, voltage offsets, imperfect compensations made by the amplifier for these phenomena, and leak current. In this model, variability in the observations can be explained by either cell properties, measurement artefacts, or both. Remarkably, by assuming that variability arises exclusively from measurement artefacts, it is possible to explain a larger amount of the observed variability than when assuming cell-specific ion current kinetics. This assumption also leads to a smaller number of model parameters. This result suggests that most of the observed variability in patch-clamp data measured under the same conditions is caused by experimental artefacts, and hence can be compensated for in post-processing by using our model for the patch-clamp experiment. This study has implications for the question of the extent to which cell-cell variability in ion channel kinetics exists, and opens up routes for better correction of artefacts in patch-clamp data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Transmural and rate-dependent profiling of drug-induced arrhythmogenic risks through in silico simulations of multichannel pharmacology

In vitro human ether-à-go-go related gene (hERG) inhibition assay alone might provide insufficient information to discriminate "safe" from "dangerous" drugs. Here, effects of multichannel inhibition on cardiac electrophysiology were investigated using a family of cardiac cell models (Purkinje (P), endocardial (Endo), mid-myocardial (M) and epicardial (Epi)). We found that: (1) QT prolongation alone might not necessarily lead to early afterdepolarization (EAD) events, and it might be insufficient to predict arrhythmogenic liability; (2) the occurrence and onset of EAD events could be a candidate biomarker of drug-induced arrhythmogenicity; (3) M cells are more vulnerable to drug-induced arrhythmias, and can develop early afterdepolarization (EAD) at slower pacing rates; (4) the application of quinidine can cause EADs in all cell types, while INaL is the major depolarizing current during the generation of drug-induced EAD in P cells, ICaL is mostly responsible in other cell types; (5) drug-induced action potential (AP) alternans with beat-to-beat variations occur at high pacing rates in P cells. These results suggested that quantitative profiling of transmural and rate-dependent properties can be essential to evaluate drug-induced arrhythmogenic risks, and may provide mechanistic insights into drug-induced arrhythmias.

A demonstration of modularity, reuse, reproducibility, portability and scalability for modeling and simulation of cardiac electrophysiology using Kepler Workflows

Multi-scale computational modeling is a major branch of computational biology as evidenced by the US federal interagency Multi-Scale Modeling Consortium and major international projects. It invariably involves specific and detailed sequences of data analysis and simulation, often with multiple tools and datasets, and the community recognizes improved modularity, reuse, reproducibility, portability and scalability as critical unmet needs in this area. Scientific workflows are a well-recognized strategy for addressing these needs in scientific computing. While there are good examples if the use of scientific workflows in bioinformatics, medical informatics, biomedical imaging and data analysis, there are fewer examples in multi-scale computational modeling in general and cardiac electrophysiology in particular. Cardiac electrophysiology simulation is a mature area of multi-scale computational biology that serves as an excellent use case for developing and testing new scientific workflows. In this article, we develop, describe and test a computational workflow that serves as a proof of concept of a platform for the robust integration and implementation of a reusable and reproducible multi-scale cardiac cell and tissue model that is expandable, modular and portable. The workflow described leverages Python and Kepler-Python actor for plotting and pre/post-processing. During all stages of the workflow design, we rely on freely available open-source tools, to make our workflow freely usable by scientists.

We present a computational workflow as a proof of concept for integration and implementation of a reusable and reproducible cardiac multi-scale electrophysiology model that is expandable, modular and portable. This framework enables scientists to create intuitive, user-friendly and flexible end-to-end automated scientific workflows using a graphical user interface. Kepler is an advanced open-source platform that supports multiple models of computation. The underlying workflow engine handles scalability, provenance, reproducibility aspects of the code, performs orchestration of data flow, and automates execution on heterogeneous computing resources. One of the main advantages of workflow utilization is the integration of code written in multiple languages Standardization occurs at the interfaces of the workflow elements and allows for general applications and easy comparison and integration of code from different research groups or even multiple programmers coding in different languages for various purposes from the same group. A workflow driven problem-solving approach enables domain scientists to focus on resolving the core science questions, and delegates the computational and process management burden to the underlying Workflow. The workflow driven approach allows scaling the computational experiment with distributed data-parallel execution on multiple computing platforms, such as, HPC resources, GPU clusters, Cloud etc. The workflow framework tracks software version information along with hardware information to allow users an opportunity to trace any variation in workflow outcome to the system configurations.

Fitting two human atrial cell models to experimental data using Bayesian history matching

Cardiac cell models are potentially valuable tools for applications such as quantitative safety pharmacology, but have many parameters. Action potentials in real cardiac cells also vary from beat to beat, and from one cell to another. Calibrating cardiac cell models to experimental observations is difficult, because the parameter space is large and high-dimensional. In this study we have demonstrated the use of history matching to calibrate the maximum conductance of ion channels and exchangers in two detailed models of the human atrial action potential against measurements of action potential biomarkers. History matching is an approach developed in other modelling communities, based on constructing fast-running Gaussian process emulators of the model. Emulators were constructed from a small number of model runs (around 10²), and then run many times (>10⁶) at low computational cost, each time with a different set of model parameters. Emulator outputs were compared with experimental biomarkers using an implausibility measure, which took into account experimental variance as well as emulator variance. By repeating this process, the region of non-implausible parameter space was iteratively reduced. Both cardiac cell models were successfully calibrated to experimental datasets, resulting in sets of parameters that could be sampled to produce variable action potentials. However, model parameters did not occupy a small range of values. Instead, the history matching process exposed inputs that can co-vary across a wide range and still be consistent with a particular biomarker. We also found correlations between some biomarkers, indicating a need for better descriptors of action potential shape.

Reproducible model development in the cardiac electrophysiology Web Lab

The modelling of the electrophysiology of cardiac cells is one of the most mature areas of systems biology. This extended concentration of research effort brings with it new challenges, foremost among which is that of choosing which of these models is most suitable for addressing a particular scientific question. In a previous paper, we presented our initial work in developing an online resource for the characterisation and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. In that work, we described how we had developed a novel protocol language that allowed us to separate the details of the mathematical model (the majority of cardiac cell models take the form of ordinary differential equations) from the experimental protocol being simulated. We developed a fully-open online repository (which we termed the Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab) which allows users to store and compare the results of applying the same experimental protocol to competing models. In the current paper we describe the most recent and planned extensions of this work, focused on supporting the process of model building from experimental data. We outline the necessary work to develop a machine-readable language to describe the process of inferring parameters from wet lab datasets, and illustrate our approach through a detailed example of fitting a model of the hERG channel using experimental data. We conclude by discussing the future challenges in making further progress in this domain towards our goal of facilitating a fully reproducible approach to the development of cardiac cell models.

In Silico QT and APD Prolongation Assay for Early Screening of Drug-Induced Proarrhythmic Risk

Drug-induced proarrhythmicity is a major concern for regulators and pharmaceutical companies. For novel drug candidates, the standard assessment involves the evaluation of the potassium hERG channels block and the in vivo prolongation of the QT interval. However, this method is known to be too restrictive and to stop the development of potentially valuable therapeutic drugs. The aim of this work is to create an in silico tool for early detection of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk. The system is based on simulations of how different compounds affect the action potential duration (APD) of isolated endocardial, midmyocardial, and epicardial cells as well as the QT prolongation in a virtual tissue. Multiple channel-drug interactions and state-of-the-art human ventricular action potential models ( O'Hara , T. , PLos Comput. Biol. 2011 , 7 , e1002061 ) were used in our simulations. Specifically, 206.766 cellular and 7072 tissue simulations were performed by blocking the slow and the fast components of the delayed rectifier current ( I_Ks and I_Kr, respectively) and the L-type calcium current ( I_CaL) at different levels. The performance of our system was validated by classifying the proarrhythmic risk of 84 compounds, 40 of which present torsadogenic properties. On the basis of these results, we propose the use of a new index (Tx) for discriminating torsadogenic compounds, defined as the ratio of the drug concentrations producing 10% prolongation of the cellular endocardial, midmyocardial, and epicardial APDs and the QT interval, over the maximum effective free therapeutic plasma concentration (EFTPC). Our results show that the Tx index outperforms standard methods for early identification of torsadogenic compounds. Indeed, for the analyzed compounds, the Tx tests accuracy was in the range of 87-88% compared with a 73% accuracy of the hERG IC₅₀ based test.

Global Optimization of Ventricular Myocyte Model to Multi-Variable Objective Improves Predictions of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes

In silico cardiac myocyte models present powerful tools for drug safety testing and for predicting phenotypical consequences of ion channel mutations, but their accuracy is sometimes limited. For example, several models describing human ventricular electrophysiology perform poorly when simulating effects of long QT mutations. Model optimization represents one way of obtaining models with stronger predictive power. Using a recent human ventricular myocyte model, we demonstrate that model optimization to clinical long QT data, in conjunction with physiologically-based bounds on intracellular calcium and sodium concentrations, better constrains model parameters. To determine if the model optimized to congenital long QT data better predicts risk of drug-induced long QT arrhythmogenesis, in particular Torsades de Pointes risk, we tested the optimized model against a database of known arrhythmogenic and non-arrhythmogenic ion channel blockers. When doing so, the optimized model provided an improved risk assessment. In particular, we demonstrate an elimination of false-positive outcomes generated by the baseline model, in which simulations of non-torsadogenic drugs, in particular verapamil, predict action potential prolongation. Our results underscore the importance of currents beyond those directly impacted by a drug block in determining torsadogenic risk. Our study also highlights the need for rich data in cardiac myocyte model optimization and substantiates such optimization as a method to generate models with higher accuracy of predictions of drug-induced cardiotoxicity.

Nonclinical cardiovascular safety of pitolisant: comparing International Conference on Harmonization S7B and Comprehensive in vitro Pro-arrhythmia Assay initiative studies

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We evaluated the concordance of results from two sets of nonclinical cardiovascular safety studies on pitolisant.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

Nonclinical studies envisaged both in the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) S7B guideline and Comprehensive in vitro Pro-arrhythmia Assay (CiPA) initiative were undertaken. The CiPA initiative included in vitro ion channels, stem cell-derived human ventricular myocytes, and in silico modelling to simulate human ventricular electrophysiology. ICH S7B-recommended assays included in vitro hERG (KV 11.1) channels, in vivo dog studies with follow-up investigations in rabbit Purkinje fibres and the in vivo Carlsson rabbit pro-arrhythmia model.

KEY RESULTS

Both sets of nonclinical data consistently excluded pitolisant from having clinically relevant QT-liability or pro-arrhythmic potential. CiPA studies revealed pitolisant to have modest calcium channel blocking and late INa reducing activities at high concentrations, which resulted in pitolisant reducing dofetilide-induced early after-depolarizations (EADs) in the ICH S7B studies. Studies in stem cell-derived human cardiomyocytes with dofetilide or E-4031 given alone and in combination with pitolisant confirmed these properties. In silico modelling confirmed that the ion channel effects measured are consistent with results from both the stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes and rabbit Purkinje fibres and categorized pitolisant as a drug with low torsadogenic potential. Results from the two sets of nonclinical studies correlated well with those from two clinical QT studies.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our findings support the CiPA initiative but suggest that sponsors should consider investigating drug effects on EADs and the use of pro-arrhythmia models when the results from CiPA studies are ambiguous.

Uncertainty quantification of 2 models of cardiac electromechanics

Computational models of the heart have reached a maturity level that render them useful for in silico studies of arrhythmia and other cardiac diseases. However, the translation to the clinic of cardiac simulations critically depends on demonstrating the accuracy, robustness, and reliability of the underlying computational models under the presence of uncertainties. In this work, we study for the first time the effect of parameter uncertainty on 2 state-of-the-art coupled models of excitation-contraction of cardiac tissue. To this end, we perform forward uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analyses to understand how variability in key maximal conductances affect selected quantities of interest, such as the action potential duration (APD₉₀ ), maximum intracellular calcium concentration, cardiac stretch, and stress. Our results suggest a strong linear relationship between selected maximal conductances and quantities of interest for a variability in parameters up to 25%, which justifies the construction of linear response surfaces that are used to compute the empirical probability density functions of all the quantities of interest under study. For both electromechanical models analyzed, uncertainty in the material parameters associated to the passive mechanical response of cardiac tissue does not affect the duration of action potentials, neither the amplitude of intracellular calcium concentrations. Our results confirm the poor mechanoelectric feedback that classical models of cardiac electromechanics have, even under the presence of parameter uncertainty.

Pro-arrhythmic effects of low plasma [K+] in human ventricle: An illustrated review

Potassium levels in the plasma, [K⁺]_o, are regulated precisely under physiological conditions. However, increases (from approx. 4.5 to 8.0mM) can occur as a consequence of, e.g., endurance exercise, ischemic insult or kidney failure. This hyperkalemic modulation of ventricular electrophysiology has been studied extensively. Hypokalemia is also common. It can occur in response to diuretic therapy, following renal dialysis, or during recovery from endurance exercise. In the human ventricle, clinical hypokalemia (e.g., [K⁺]_o levels of approx. 3.0mM) can cause marked changes in both the resting potential and the action potential waveform, and these may promote arrhythmias. Here, we provide essential background information concerning the main K⁺-sensitive ion channel mechanisms that act in concert to produce prominent short-term ventricular electrophysiological changes, and illustrate these by implementing recent mathematical models of the human ventricular action potential. Even small changes (~1mM) in [K⁺]_o result in significant alterations in two different K⁺ currents, I_K1 and HERG. These changes can markedly alter in resting membrane potential and/or action potential waveform in human ventricle. Specifically, a reduction in net outward transmembrane K⁺ currents (repolarization reserve) and an increased substrate input resistance contribute to electrophysiological instability during the plateau of the action potential and may promote pro-arrhythmic early after-depolarizations (EADs). Translational settings where these insights apply include: optimal diuretic therapy, and the interpretation of data from Phase II and III trials for anti-arrhythmic drug candidates.

Cardiac action potential repolarization revisited: early repolarization shows all-or-none behaviour

In healthy mammalian hearts the action potential (AP) waveform initiates and modulates each contraction, or heartbeat. As a result, AP height and duration are key physiological variables. In addition, rate-dependent changes in ventricular AP duration (APD), and variations in APD at a fixed heart rate are both reliable biomarkers of electrophysiological stability. Present guidelines for the likelihood that candidate drugs will increase arrhythmias rely on small changes in APD and Q-T intervals as criteria for safety pharmacology decisions. However, both of these measurements correspond to the final repolarization of the AP. Emerging clinical evidence draws attention to the early repolarization phase of the action potential (and the J-wave of the ECG) as an additional important biomarker for arrhythmogenesis. Here we provide a mechanistic background to this early repolarization syndrome by summarizing the evidence that both the initial depolarization and repolarization phases of the cardiac action potential can exhibit distinct time- and voltage-dependent thresholds, and also demonstrating that both can show regenerative all-or-none behaviour. An important consequence of this is that not all of the dynamics of action potential repolarization in human ventricle can be captured by data from single myocytes when these results are expressed as 'repolarization reserve'. For example, the complex pattern of cell-to-cell current flow that is responsible for AP conduction (propagation) within the mammalian myocardium can change APD and the Q-T interval of the electrocardiogram alter APD stability, and modulate responsiveness to pharmacological agents (such as Class III anti-arrhythmic drugs).

In silico assessment of the effects of various compounds in MEA/hiPSC-CM assays: Modeling and numerical simulations

We propose a mathematical approach for the analysis of drugs effects on the electrical activity of human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs) based on multi-electrode array (MEA) experiments. Our goal is to produce an in silico tool able to simulate drugs action in MEA/hiPSC-CM assays. The mathematical model takes into account the geometry of the MEA and the electrodes' properties. The electrical activity of the stem cells at the ion-channel level is governed by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The ODEs are coupled to the bidomain equations, describing the propagation of the electrical wave in the stem cells preparation. The field potential (FP) measured by the MEA is modeled by the extracellular potential of the bidomain equations. First, we propose a strategy allowing us to generate a field potential in good agreement with the experimental data. We show that we are able to reproduce realistic field potentials by introducing different scenarios of heterogeneity in the action potential. This heterogeneity reflects the differentiation atria/ventricles and the age of the cells. Second, we introduce a drug/ion channels interaction based on a pore block model. We conduct different simulations for five drugs (mexiletine, dofetilide, bepridil, ivabradine and BayK). We compare the simulation results with the field potential collected from experimental measurements. Different biomarkers computed on the FP are considered, including depolarization amplitude, repolarization delay, repolarization amplitude and depolarization-repolarization segment. The simulation results show that the model reflect properly the main effects of these drugs on the FP.

Humans Vary, So Cardiac Models Should Account for That Too!

The utilization of mathematical modeling and simulation in drug development encompasses multiple mathematical techniques and the location of a drug candidate in the development pipeline. Historically speaking they have been used to analyze experimental data (i.e., Hill equation) and clarify the involved physical and chemical processes (i.e., Fick laws and drug molecule diffusion). In recent years the advanced utilization of mathematical modeling has been an important part of the regulatory review process. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models identify the need to conduct specific clinical studies, suggest specific study designs and propose appropriate labeling language. Their application allows the evaluation of the influence of intrinsic (e.g., age, gender, genetics, disease) and extrinsic [e.g., dosing schedule, drug-drug interactions (DDIs)] factors, alone or in combinations, on drug exposure and therefore provides accurate population assessment. A similar pathway has been taken for the assessment of drug safety with cardiac safety being one the most advanced examples. Mechanistic mathematical model-informed safety evaluation, with a focus on drug potential for causing arrhythmias, is now discussed as an element of the Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay. One of the pillars of this paradigm is the use of an in silico model of the adult human ventricular cardiomyocyte to integrate in vitro measured data. Existing examples (in vitro—in vivo extrapolation with the use of PBPK models) suggest that deterministic, epidemiological and clinical data based variability models can be merged with the mechanistic models describing human physiology. There are other methods available, based on the stochastic approach and on population of models generated by randomly assigning specific parameter values (ionic current conductance and kinetic) and further pruning. Both approaches are briefly characterized in this manuscript, in parallel with the drug-specific variability.

Modelling the effects of quinidine, disopyramide, and E-4031 on short QT syndrome variant 3 in the human ventricles

OBJECTIVE

Short QT syndrome (SQTS) is an inherited cardiac channelopathy, but at present little information is available on its pharmacological treatment. SQT3 variant (linked to the inward rectifier potassium current I _K1) of SQTS, results from a gain-of-function mutation (Kir2.1 D172N) in the KCNJ2-encoded channels, which is associated with ventricular fibrillation (VF). Using biophysically-detailed human ventricular computer models, this study investigated the potential effects of quinidine, disopyramide, and E-4031 on SQT3.

APPROACH

The ten Tusscher et al model of human ventricular myocyte action potential (AP) was modified to recapitulate the changes in I _K1 due to heterozygous and homozygous forms of the D172N mutation. Wild-type (WT) and mutant WT-D172N and D172N formulations were incorporated into one-dimensional (1D) and 2D tissue models with transmural heterogeneities. Effects of drugs on channel-blocking activity were modelled using half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) and Hill coefficient (nH) values. Effects of drugs on AP duration (APD), effective refractory period (ERP) and QT interval of pseudo-ECGs were quantified, and both temporal and spatial vulnerability to re-entry was measured. Re-entry was simulated in the 2D ventricular tissue.

MAIN RESULTS

At the single cell level, the drugs quinidine, disopyramide, and E-4031 prolonged APD at 90% repolarization (APD₉₀), and decreased maximal transmural voltage heterogeneity (δV); this caused the decreased transmural dispersion of APD₉₀. Quinidine prolonged the QT interval and decreased the T-wave amplitude. Furthermore, quinidine increased ERP and reduced temporal vulnerability and increased spatial vulnerability, resulting in a reduced susceptibility to arrhythmogenesis in SQT3. In the 2D tissue, quinidine was effective in terminating and preventing re-entry associated with the heterozygous D172N condition. Quinidine exhibited significantly better therapeutic effects on SQT3 than disopyramide and E-4031.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study substantiates a causal link between quinidine and QT interval prolongation in SQT3 Kir2.1 mutations and highlights possible pharmacological agent quinidine for treating SQT3 patients.

In silico assessment of the effects of quinidine, disopyramide and E-4031 on short QT syndrome variant 1 in the human ventricles

Aims

Short QT syndrome (SQTS) is an inherited disorder associated with abnormally abbreviated QT intervals and an increased incidence of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias. SQT1 variant (linked to the rapid delayed rectifier potassium channel current, I_Kr) of SQTS, results from an inactivation-attenuated, gain-of-function mutation (N588K) in the KCNH2-encoded potassium channels. Pro-arrhythmogenic effects of SQT1 have been well characterized, but less is known about the possible pharmacological antiarrhythmic treatment of SQT1. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the potential effects of E-4031, disopyramide and quinidine on SQT1 using a mathematical model of human ventricular electrophysiology.

Methods

The ten Tusscher et al. biophysically detailed model of the human ventricular action potential (AP) was modified to incorporate I_Kr Markov chain (MC) formulations based on experimental data of the kinetics of the N588K mutation of the KCNH2-encoded subunit of the I_Kr channels. The modified ventricular cell model was then integrated into one-dimensional (1D) strand, 2D regular and realistic tissues with transmural heterogeneities. The channel-blocking effect of the drugs on ion currents in healthy and SQT1 cells was modeled using half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) and Hill coefficient (nH) values from literatures. Effects of drugs on cell AP duration (APD), effective refractory period (ERP) and pseudo-ECG traces were calculated. Effects of drugs on the ventricular temporal and spatial vulnerability to re-entrant excitation waves were measured. Re-entry was simulated in both 2D regular and realistic ventricular tissue.

Results

At the single cell level, the drugs E-4031 and disopyramide had hardly noticeable effects on the ventricular cell APD at 90% repolarization (APD₉₀), whereas quinidine caused a significant prolongation of APD₉₀. Quinidine prolonged and decreased the maximal transmural AP heterogeneity (δV); this led to the decreased transmural heterogeneity of APD across the 1D strand. Quinidine caused QT prolongation and a decrease in the T-wave amplitude, and increased ERP and decreased temporal susceptibility of the tissue to the initiation of re-entry and increased the minimum substrate size necessary to prevent re-entry in the 2D regular model, and further terminated re-entrant waves in the 2D realistic model. Quinidine exhibited significantly better therapeutic effects on SQT1 than E-4031 and disopyramide.

Conclusions

The simulated pharmacological actions of quinidine exhibited antiarrhythmic effects on SQT1. This study substantiates a causal link between quinidine and QT interval prolongation in SQT1 and suggests that quinidine may be a potential pharmacological agent for treating SQT1 patients.

Effects of amiodarone on short QT syndrome variant 3 in human ventricles: a simulation study

Background

Short QT syndrome (SQTS) is a newly identified clinical disorder associated with atrial and/or ventricular arrhythmias and increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). The SQTS variant 3 is linked to D172N mutation to the KCNJ2 gene that causes a gain-of-function to the inward rectifier potassium channel current (I_K1), which shortens the ventricular action potential duration (APD) and effective refractory period (ERP). Pro-arrhythmogenic effects of SQTS have been characterized, but less is known about the possible pharmacological treatment of SQTS. Therefore, in this study, we used computational modeling to assess the effects of amiodarone, class III anti-arrhythmic agent, on human ventricular electrophysiology in SQT3.

Methods

The ten Tusscher et al. model for the human ventricular action potentials (APs) was modified to incorporate I_K1 formulations based on experimental data of Kir2.1 channels (including WT, WT-D172N and D172N conditions). The modified cell model was then implemented to construct one-dimensional (1D) and 2D tissue models. The blocking effects of amiodarone on ionic currents were modeled using IC₅₀ and Hill coefficient values from literatures. Effects of amiodarone on APD, ERP and pseudo-ECG traces were computed. Effects of the drug on the temporal and spatial vulnerability of ventricular tissue to genesis and maintenance of re-entry were measured, as well as on the dynamic behavior of re-entry.

Results

Amiodarone prolonged the ventricular cell APD and decreased the maximal voltage heterogeneity (δV) among three difference cells types across transmural ventricular wall, leading to a decreased transmural heterogeneity of APD along a 1D model of ventricular transmural strand. Amiodarone increased cellular ERP, prolonged QT interval and decreased the T-wave amplitude. It reduced tissue’s temporal susceptibility to the initiation of re-entry and increased the minimum substrate size necessary to sustain re-entry in the 2D tissue.

Conclusions

At the therapeutic-relevant concentration of amiodarone, the APD and ERP at the single cell level were increased significantly. The QT interval in pseudo-ECG was prolonged and the re-entry in tissue was prevented. This study provides further evidence that amiodarone may be a potential pharmacological agent for preventing arrhythmogenesis for SQT3 patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12938-017-0369-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The control of cardiac ventricular excitability by autonomic pathways

Central to the genesis of ventricular cardiac arrhythmia are variations in determinants of excitability. These involve individual ionic channels and transporters in cardiac myocytes but also tissue factors such as variable conduction of the excitation wave, fibrosis and source-sink mismatch. It is also known that in certain diseases and particularly the channelopathies critical events occur with specific stressors. For example, in hereditary long QT syndrome due to mutations in KCNQ1 arrhythmic episodes are provoked by exercise and in particular swimming. Thus not only is the static substrate important but also how this is modified by dynamic signalling events associated with common physiological responses. In this review, we examine the regulation of ventricular excitability by signalling pathways from a cellular and tissue perspective in an effort to identify key processes, effectors and potential therapeutic approaches. We specifically focus on the autonomic nervous system and related signalling pathways.

The Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab

Computational modeling of cardiac cellular electrophysiology has a long history, and many models are now available for different species, cell types, and experimental preparations. This success brings with it a challenge: how do we assess and compare the underlying hypotheses and emergent behaviors so that we can choose a model as a suitable basis for a new study or to characterize how a particular model behaves in different scenarios? We have created an online resource for the characterization and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. The details of the mathematical model (quantitative assumptions and hypotheses formulated as ordinary differential equations) are separated from the experimental protocol being simulated. Each model and protocol is then encoded in computer-readable formats. A simulation tool runs virtual experiments on models encoded in CellML, and a website (https://chaste.cs.ox.ac.uk/WebLab) provides a friendly interface, allowing users to store and compare results. The system currently contains a sample of 36 models and 23 protocols, including current-voltage curve generation, action potential properties under steady pacing at different rates, restitution properties, block of particular channels, and hypo-/hyperkalemia. This resource is publicly available, open source, and free, and we invite the community to use it and become involved in future developments. Investigators interested in comparing competing hypotheses using models can make a more informed decision, and those developing new models can upload them for easy evaluation under the existing protocols, and even add their own protocols.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Recent developments in using mechanistic cardiac modelling for drug safety evaluation

•

Modelling and simulation can streamline decision making in drug safety testing.

•

Computational cardiac electrophysiology is a mature technology with a long heritage.

•

There are many challenges and opportunities in using in silico techniques in future.

•

We discuss how models can be used at different stages of drug discovery.

•

CiPA will combine screening platforms, human cell assays and in silico predictions.

On the tenth anniversary of two key International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) guidelines relating to cardiac proarrhythmic safety, an initiative aims to consider the implementation of a new paradigm that combines in vitro and in silico technologies to improve risk assessment. The Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) initiative (co-sponsored by the Cardiac Safety Research Consortium, Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, Safety Pharmacology Society and FDA) is a bold and welcome step in using computational tools for regulatory decision making. This review compares and contrasts the state-of-the-art tools from empirical to mechanistic models of cardiac electrophysiology, and how they can and should be used in combination with experimental tests for compound decision making.

Uncertainty and variability in models of the cardiac action potential: Can we build trustworthy models?

Cardiac electrophysiology models have been developed for over 50 years, and now include detailed descriptions of individual ion currents and sub-cellular calcium handling. It is commonly accepted that there are many uncertainties in these systems, with quantities such as ion channel kinetics or expression levels being difficult to measure or variable between samples. Until recently, the original approach of describing model parameters using single values has been retained, and consequently the majority of mathematical models in use today provide point predictions, with no associated uncertainty.

In recent years, statistical techniques have been developed and applied in many scientific areas to capture uncertainties in the quantities that determine model behaviour, and to provide a distribution of predictions which accounts for this uncertainty. In this paper we discuss this concept, which is termed uncertainty quantification, and consider how it might be applied to cardiac electrophysiology models.

We present two case studies in which probability distributions, instead of individual numbers, are inferred from data to describe quantities such as maximal current densities. Then we show how these probabilistic representations of model parameters enable probabilities to be placed on predicted behaviours. We demonstrate how changes in these probability distributions across data sets offer insight into which currents cause beat-to-beat variability in canine APs. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges that this approach entails, and how it provides opportunities to improve our understanding of electrophysiology.

•

Uncertainty and variability in action potential models can be quantified.

•

A probabilistic method for inferring maximal current densities is developed and applied.

•

We use this to infer the currents responsible for canine beat-to-beat variability.

•

Emulation of mathematical models provides rich information at low computational cost.

•

The importance of considering uncertainty and variability in future is discussed.

Treatment of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG): Biological markers and simulation studies

Intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine is the preferred first line treatment for non-muscle invasive bladder carcinoma (NMIBC) in order to prevent recurrence and progression of cancer. There is ongoing need for the rational selection of i) BCG dose, ii) frequency of BCG administration along with iii) synergistic adjuvant therapy and iv) a reliable set of biochemical markers relevant to tumor response. In this review we evaluate cellular and molecular markers pertinent to the immunological response triggered by the BCG instillation and respective mathematical models of the treatment. Specific examples of markers include diverse immune cells, genetic polymorphisms, miRNAs, epigenetics, immunohistochemistry and molecular biology 'beacons' as exemplified by cell surface proteins, cytokines, signaling proteins and enzymes. We identified tumor associated macrophages (TAMs), human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I, a combination of Ki-67/CK20, IL-2, IL-8 and IL-6/IL-10 ratio as the most promising markers for both pre-BCG and post-BCG treatment suitable for the simulation studies. The intricate and patient-specific nature of these data warrants the use of powerful multi-parametral mathematical methods in combination with molecular/cellular biology insight and clinical input.

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of a Cardiac Cell Model Using a Gaussian Process Emulator

Models of electrical activity in cardiac cells have become important research tools as they can provide a quantitative description of detailed and integrative physiology. However, cardiac cell models have many parameters, and how uncertainties in these parameters affect the model output is difficult to assess without undertaking large numbers of model runs. In this study we show that a surrogate statistical model of a cardiac cell model (the Luo-Rudy 1991 model) can be built using Gaussian process (GP) emulators. Using this approach we examined how eight outputs describing the action potential shape and action potential duration restitution depend on six inputs, which we selected to be the maximum conductances in the Luo-Rudy 1991 model. We found that the GP emulators could be fitted to a small number of model runs, and behaved as would be expected based on the underlying physiology that the model represents. We have shown that an emulator approach is a powerful tool for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in cardiac cell models.

Screening system for drug-induced arrhythmogenic risk combining a patch clamp and heart simulator

To save time and cost for drug discovery, a paradigm shift in cardiotoxicity testing is required. We introduce a novel screening system for drug-induced arrhythmogenic risk that combines in vitro pharmacological assays and a multiscale heart simulator. For 12 drugs reported to have varying cardiotoxicity risks, dose-inhibition curves were determined for six ion channels using automated patch clamp systems. By manipulating the channel models implemented in a heart simulator consisting of more than 20 million myocyte models, we simulated a standard electrocardiogram (ECG) under various doses of drugs. When the drug concentrations were increased from therapeutic levels, each drug induced a concentration-dependent characteristic type of ventricular arrhythmia, whereas no arrhythmias were observed at any dose with drugs known to be safe. We have shown that our system combining in vitro and in silico technologies can predict drug-induced arrhythmogenic risk reliably and efficiently.

In silico assessment of drug safety in human heart applied to late sodium current blockers

Drug-induced action potential (AP) prolongation leading to Torsade de Pointes is a major concern for the development of anti-arrhythmic drugs. Nevertheless the development of improved anti-arrhythmic agents, some of which may block different channels, remains an important opportunity. Partial block of the late sodium current (I(NaL)) has emerged as a novel anti-arrhythmic mechanism. It can be effective in the settings of free radical challenge or hypoxia. In addition, this approach can attenuate pro-arrhythmic effects of blocking the rapid delayed rectifying K(+) current (I(Kr)). The main goal of our computational work was to develop an in-silico tool for preclinical anti-arrhythmic drug safety assessment, by illustrating the impact of I(Kr)/I(NaL) ratio of steady-state block of drug candidates on "torsadogenic" biomarkers. The O'Hara et al. AP model for human ventricular myocytes was used. Biomarkers for arrhythmic risk, i.e., AP duration, triangulation, reverse rate-dependence, transmural dispersion of repolarization and electrocardiogram QT intervals, were calculated using single myocyte and one-dimensional strand simulations. Predetermined amounts of block of I(NaL) and I(Kr) were evaluated. "Safety plots" were developed to illustrate the value of the specific biomarker for selected combinations of IC(50)s for I(Kr) and I(NaL) of potential drugs. The reference biomarkers at baseline changed depending on the "drug" specificity for these two ion channel targets. Ranolazine and GS967 (a novel potent inhibitor of I(NaL)) yielded a biomarker data set that is considered safe by standard regulatory criteria. This novel in-silico approach is useful for evaluating pro-arrhythmic potential of drugs and drug candidates in the human ventricle.

Bridging Systems Medicine and Patient Needs

While there is widespread consensus on the need both to change the prevailing research and development (R&D) paradigm and provide the community with an efficient way to personalize medicine, ecosystem stakeholders grapple with divergent conceptions about which quantitative approach should be preferred. The primary purpose of this position paper is to contrast these approaches. The second objective is to introduce a framework to bridge simulation outputs and patient outcomes, thus empowering the implementation of systems medicine.

Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate consequences of variability; and (iv) improve the ability to validate a model. To our knowledge this article is the first to quantify population variability in membrane dynamics in this manner, and the first to perform formal UQ for a component of a cardiac model. The approach is likely to find much wider applicability across systems biology as current application domains reach greater levels of maturity.

The virtual heart as a platform for screening drug cardiotoxicity

To predict the safety of a drug at an early stage in its development is a major challenge as there is a lack of in vitro heart models that correlate data from preclinical toxicity screening assays with clinical results. A biophysically detailed computer model of the heart, the virtual heart, provides a powerful tool for simulating drug–ion channel interactions and cardiac functions during normal and disease conditions and, therefore, provides a powerful platform for drug cardiotoxicity screening. In this article, we first review recent progress in the development of theory on drug–ion channel interactions and mathematical modelling. Then we propose a family of biomarkers that can quantitatively characterize the actions of a drug on the electrical activity of the heart at multi‐physical scales including cellular and tissue levels. We also conducted some simulations to demonstrate the application of the virtual heart to assess the pro‐arrhythmic effects of cisapride and amiodarone. Using the model we investigated the mechanisms responsible for the differences between the two drugs on pro‐arrhythmogenesis, even though both prolong the QT interval of ECGs. Several challenges for further development of a virtual heart as a platform for screening drug cardiotoxicity are discussed.

Linked Articles

This article is part of a themed section on Chinese Innovation in Cardiovascular Drug Discovery. To view the other articles in this section visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2015.172.issue-23

Computer-based prediction of the drug proarrhythmic effect: problems, issues, known and suspected challenges

It is likely that computer modelling and simulations will become an element of comprehensive cardiac safety testing. Their role would be primarily the integration and the interpretation of previously gathered data. There are still unanswered questions and issues which we list and describe below. They include sources of data used for the development of the models as well as data utilized as input information, which can come from the in vitro studies and the quantitative structure-activity relationship models. The pharmacokinetics of the drugs in question play a crucial role as their active concentration should be considered, yet the question remains where is the right place to assess it. The pharmacodynamic angle includes complications coming from multiple drugs (i.e. active metabolites) acting in parallel as well as the type of interaction with (potentially) multiple affected channels. Once established, the model and the methodology of its use should be further validated, optimistically against individual data reported at the clinical level as the physiological, anatomical, and genetic parameters play a crucial role in the drug-triggered arrhythmia induction. All the abovementioned issues should be at least considered and-hopefully-resolved, to properly utilize the mathematical models for a cardiac safety assessment.

Prediction of Thorough QT study results using action potential simulations based on ion channel screens

INTRODUCTION

Detection of drug-induced pro-arrhythmic risk is a primary concern for pharmaceutical companies and regulators. Increased risk is linked to prolongation of the QT interval on the body surface ECG. Recent studies have shown that multiple ion channel interactions can be required to predict changes in ventricular repolarisation and therefore QT intervals. In this study we attempt to predict the result of the human clinical Thorough QT (TQT) study, using multiple ion channel screening which is available early in drug development.

METHODS

Ion current reduction was measured, in the presence of marketed drugs which have had a TQT study, for channels encoded by hERG, CaV1.2, NaV1.5, KCNQ1/MinK, and Kv4.3/KChIP2.2. The screen was performed on two platforms - IonWorks Quattro (all 5 channels, 34 compounds), and IonWorks Barracuda (hERG & CaV1.2, 26 compounds). Concentration-effect curves were fitted to the resulting data, and used to calculate a percentage reduction in each current at a given concentration. Action potential simulations were then performed using the ten Tusscher and Panfilov (2006), Grandi et al. (2010) and O'Hara et al. (2011) human ventricular action potential models, pacing at 1Hz and running to steady state, for a range of concentrations.

RESULTS

We compared simulated action potential duration predictions with the QT prolongation observed in the TQT studies. At the estimated concentrations, simulations tended to underestimate any observed QT prolongation. When considering a wider range of concentrations, and conventional patch clamp rather than screening data for hERG, prolongation of ≥5ms was predicted with up to 79% sensitivity and 100% specificity.

DISCUSSION

This study provides a proof-of-principle for the prediction of human TQT study results using data available early in drug development. We highlight a number of areas that need refinement to improve the method's predictive power, but the results suggest that such approaches will provide a useful tool in cardiac safety assessment.