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Riabiz M, Cockayne J, Luo A, Oates C, Swietach P, Niederer S. Novel developments in inferring variability and co-variability of calcium signalling. J Mol Cell Cardiol 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.yjmcc.2022.08.291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Riabiz
- King's College London LondonUK
- Alan Turing Institute LondonUK
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Chris. J. Oates
- Alan Turing Institute LondonUK
- Newcastle University Newcastle Upon TyneUK
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Lei CL, Ghosh S, Whittaker DG, Aboelkassem Y, Beattie KA, Cantwell CD, Delhaas T, Houston C, Novaes GM, Panfilov AV, Pathmanathan P, Riabiz M, dos Santos RW, Walmsley J, Worden K, Mirams GR, Wilkinson RD. Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2020; 378:20190349. [PMID: 32448065 PMCID: PMC7287333 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/21/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chon Lok Lei
- Computational Biology and Health Informatics, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sanmitra Ghosh
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Dominic G. Whittaker
- Centre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Yasser Aboelkassem
- Department of Bioengineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Kylie A. Beattie
- Systems Modeling and Translational Biology, GlaxoSmithKline R&D, Stevenage, UK
| | - Chris D. Cantwell
- ElectroCardioMaths Programme, Centre for Cardiac Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Tammo Delhaas
- CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Charles Houston
- ElectroCardioMaths Programme, Centre for Cardiac Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Gustavo Montes Novaes
- Graduate Program in Computational Modeling, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
| | - Alexander V. Panfilov
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Medicine, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia
| | - Pras Pathmanathan
- US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Marina Riabiz
- Department of Biomedical Engineering King’s College London and Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - Rodrigo Weber dos Santos
- Graduate Program in Computational Modeling, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
| | - John Walmsley
- James T. Willerson Center for Cardiovascular Modeling and Simulation, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Keith Worden
- Dynamics Research Group, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Gary R. Mirams
- Centre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
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Niederer SA, Aboelkassem Y, Cantwell CD, Corrado C, Coveney S, Cherry EM, Delhaas T, Fenton FH, Panfilov AV, Pathmanathan P, Plank G, Riabiz M, Roney CH, dos Santos RW, Wang L. Creation and application of virtual patient cohorts of heart models. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2020; 378:20190558. [PMID: 32448064 PMCID: PMC7287335 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Patient-specific cardiac models are now being used to guide therapies. The increased use of patient-specific cardiac simulations in clinical care will give rise to the development of virtual cohorts of cardiac models. These cohorts will allow cardiac simulations to capture and quantify inter-patient variability. However, the development of virtual cohorts of cardiac models will require the transformation of cardiac modelling from small numbers of bespoke models to robust and rapid workflows that can create large numbers of models. In this review, we describe the state of the art in virtual cohorts of cardiac models, the process of creating virtual cohorts of cardiac models, and how to generate the individual cohort member models, followed by a discussion of the potential and future applications of virtual cohorts of cardiac models. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - E. M. Cherry
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - T. Delhaas
- Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - F. H. Fenton
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - A. V. Panfilov
- Ghent University, Gent, Belgium
- Laboratory of Computational Biology and Medicine, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia
| | - P. Pathmanathan
- Center for Devices and Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Administration, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - G. Plank
- Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | | | | | | | - L. Wang
- Rochester Institute of Technology, La JollaRochester, NY, USA
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