Liver transplantation in the era of model for end-stage liver disease

Inconsistent values and algorithmic fairness: a review of organ allocation priority systems in the United States

BACKGROUND

The Organ Procurement and Transplant Network (OPTN) Final Rule guides national organ transplantation policies, mandating equitable organ allocation and organ-specific priority stratification systems. Current allocation scores rely on mortality predictions.

METHODS

We examined the alignment between the ethical priorities across organ prioritization systems and the statistical design of the risk models in question. We searched PubMed for literature on organ allocation history, policy, and ethics in the United States.

RESULTS

We identified 127 relevant articles, covering kidney (19), liver (60), lung (24), and heart transplants (23), and transplant accessibility (1). Current risk scores emphasize model performance and overlook ethical concerns in variable selection. The inclusion of race, sex, and geographical limits as categorical variables lacks biological basis; therefore, blurring the line between evidence-based models and discrimination. Comprehensive ethical and equity evaluation of risk scores is lacking, with only limited discussion of the algorithmic fairness of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) in some literature. We uncovered the inconsistent ethical standards underlying organ allocation scores in the United States. Specifically, we highlighted the exception points in MELD, the inclusion of race in KDRI, the geographical limit in the Lung Allocation Score, and the inadequacy of risk stratification in the Heart Tier system, creating obstacles for medically underserved populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage efforts to address statistical and ethical concerns in organ allocation models and urge standardization and transparency in policy development to ensure fairness, equitability, and evidence-based risk predictions.

MELD EXCEPTION POINTS PROVIDE AN ENOURMOUS ADVANTAGE FOR RECEIVING A LIVER TRANSPLANT IN BRAZIL

BACKGROUND

Current policy for listing to liver transplant (LT) may place cirrhotic patients without MELD exception points (CIR) in a disadvantageous position if compared to patients enlisted with appealed MELD scores - patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or special conditions other than hepatocellular carcinoma (SPE). Transplant rates, delisting, and waitlist mortality of CIR, HCC, and SPE candidates were compared.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to counterweight the listing rate and speed of listing of HCC, SPE, and CIR patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study comparing the outcomes of patients enlisted for SPE to those of HCC and CIR. In several countries worldwide, SPE patients also receive appealed MELD scores in a similar way of HCC patients.

METHODS

Two cohorts of patients listed for LT in a single institution were evaluated. The first cohort (C1, n=180) included all patients enlisted on August 1st, 2008, and all additional patients listed from this date until July 31st, 2009. The second cohort (C2, n=109) included all patients present on the LT list on October 1st, 2012, and all additional patients listed from this date until May 2014.

RESULTS

In both cohorts, HCC patients had a higher chance of receiving a LT than CIR patients (C1HR =2.05, 95%CI=1.54-2.72, P<0.0001; C2HR =3.17, 95%CI =1.83-5.52, P<0.0001). For C1, 1-year waiting list mortality was 21.6% (30.0% for CIR vs 9.5% for HCC vs 7.1% for SPE) (P<0.001). For C2, 1-year waiting list mortality was 13.3% (25.7% for CIR, 8.3% for HCC, and 4.0% for SPE) (P<0.001). Post-transplant survival was similar among the three groups.

CONCLUSION

Compared to CIR, SPE and HCC patients had lower wait list mortality. CIR patients had the highest waitlist mortality and the lowest odd of LT. Current LT allocation system does not allow equitable organ allocation.

Survival outcomes in liver transplant recipients with Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores of 40 or higher: a decade-long experience

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been used as a prognostic tool since 2002 to predict pre-transplant mortality. Increasing proportions of transplant candidates with higher MELD scores, combined with improvements in transplant outcomes, mandate the need to study surgical outcomes in patients with MELD scores of ≥40.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal analysis of United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data on all liver transplantations performed between February 2002 and June 2011 (n = 33,398) stratified by MELD score (<30, 30-39, ≥40) was conducted. The primary outcomes of interest were short- and longterm graft and patient survival. A Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression were used. A subanalysis using a futile population was performed to determine futility predictors.

RESULTS

Of the 33,398 transplant recipients analysed, 74% scored <30, 18% scored 30-39, and 8% scored ≥40 at transplantation. Recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 were more likely to be younger (P < 0.001), non-White and to have shorter waitlist times (P < 0.001). Overall patient survival correlated inversely with increasing MELD score; this trend was consistent for both short-term (30 days and 90 days) and longterm (1, 3 and 5 years) graft and patient survival. In multivariate analysis, increasing age, African-American ethnicity, donor obesity and diabetes were negative predictors of survival. Futility predictors included patient age of >60 years, obesity, peri-transplantation intensive care unit hospitalization with ventilation, and multiple comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver transplantation in recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 offers acceptable longterm survival outcomes. Futility predictors indicate the need for prospective follow-up studies to define the population to gain the highest benefit from this precious resource.

Mortality in hepatectomy: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as a predictor of death using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

BACKGROUND

The predictive value of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) for mortality after hepatectomy is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether MELD score predicts death after hepatectomy and to identify the most useful score type for predicting mortality. We hypothesized that an increase in this score is correlated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing hepatic resection.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for hepatectomy. Original MELD, United Network of Organ Sharing-modified MELD (uMELD), integrated MELD (i-MELD), and sodium-corrected MELD (MELD-Na) scores were calculated. Mortality was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. MELD types were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2011, 11,933 hepatic resections were performed, including 7,519 partial, 2,104 right, and 1,210 left resections, and 1,100 trisectionectomies. The mean duration of stay was 8.4 ± 22.0 days, and there were 275 deaths (2.4%). The 30-day mortality rates were 1.8%, 6.9%, 15.4%, and 25% according to uMELD strata of 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, and ≥ 30, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that increasing MELD stratum was independently associated with higher mortality (P < .001) for all MELD types. The uMELD had the largest effect size (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20), whereas i-MELD had the narrowest CI (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.17) and largest area under the ROC curve.

CONCLUSION

The postoperative 30-day mortality after hepatectomy increases with increasing MELD score across all MELD types. There is a 16% increase in the odds of mortality for each point increase in uMELD.

Systemic vascular resistance in cirrhosis: a predictor of severity?

Background

The aim of this study was to investigate whether systemic vascular resistance (SVR) correlates with validated prospective scoring systems such as Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and its modifications.

Methods

Patients with cirrhosis, who were admitted to hospital with decompensation (as defined by development of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and variceal bleeding) and underwent echocardiography were included in this study. Laboratory data required for computing MELD score, serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio, and serum sodium were collected for every patient. We tabulated hemodynamic and echocardiography parameters that enabled calculation of SVR. We analyzed the correlation between SVR and each of the individual prognostic scores.

Results

A total of 771 patients with a diagnosis of decompensated cirrhosis were included in the study. Two hundred and sixty-two patients were found to have a low sodium level (<135 mEq/L) and 509 were found to have a normal sodium level (>135 mEq/L). In the patients with hyponatremia, we found statistically significant inverse correlations between SVR and validated liver severity models. However, these correlations were not seen in patients with normonatremia.

Conclusion

We observed a statistically significant inverse correlation between SVR and all the validated liver disease severity models used in this study among patients with hyponatremia but not in those with normonatremia.

Role of MELD score and serum creatinine as prognostic tools for the development of acute kidney injury after liver transplantation

Background

The role of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting complications, such as Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) has yet to be evaluated and serum creatinine may be too heavily weighted in the existing MELD formula, since it has many pitfalls in cirrhotic patients.

Methods

Retrospective data of the perioperative period from consecutive adult OLTs performed from January to December 2009 were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to analyze the risk factors for AKI and mortality after OLT.

Results

There were 114 OLTs performed in the study period, 22 (19,2%) were submitted to dialysis prior OLT and were excluded from the analysis for AKI. The median age was 52 years and 66% were male. Median creatinine value was 0.85mg/dL and MELD was 19. Fifty-two of the 92 patients (56,5%) developed AKI in the first 72 hours after OLT. The only independent risk factor for AKI was calculated MELD and when the components of the MELD score were analyzed, INR had a much stronger impact in predicting AKI then serum creatinine. Overall mortality rate was 32,5% and anesthesia duration was the only variable associated with higher mortality rate.

Conclusions

Although MELD score seems to have a good performance in predicting AKI after OLT, serum creatinine had no impact on its prediction despite its importance on MELD calculation. Modifying the MELD score, which could include novel AKI biomarkers, may improve its prognostic accuracy and provide a better tool for public health planning.

Perioperative risk factors for pulmonary complications after liver transplantation

Using monofactorial and multivariate logistic regression analyses, the correlation of perioperative risk factors with postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) within 1 month after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) was investigated. Data on 107 patients (median age 46.8 years, 72% male) with end-stage liver disease who received OLT were retrospectively analysed. The incidence of PPCs was 60.7%. Overall mortality was 13.1% and pulmonary causes accounted for 85.7% of deaths. Mortality was 18.5% and 4.8% for patients with and without pulmonary complications, respectively. Independent risk factors for PPCs were a preoperative model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score > or =25, intraoperative fluid transfusion volume > 10 1 and intraoperative blood transfusion volume > 4 l. A fluid balance of < or = -300 ml for > or =2 days of the first 3 days after surgery was protective. Other variables studied did not predict PPCs. It was concluded that improving the patient's preoperative medical condition, restricting intraoperative transfusion volumes and maintaining a negative fluid balance in the first 3 days after operation may decrease PPCs.

The impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) on liver transplantation in one center in Brazil

CONTEXT: Presently the MELD score is used as the waiting list criterion for liver transplantation in Brazil. In this method more critical patients are considered priority to transplantation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the results of liver transplantation when the chronologic waiting list was the criterion for organ allocation (pre-MELD era) with MELD score period (MELD era) in one liver transplantation unit in Brazil. METHODS: The charts of the patients subjected to liver transplantation at the Hospital de Clínicas da Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brazil, were reviewed from January of 2001 to August of 2008. Patients were divided into two groups: pre-MELD era and MELD era. They were compared in relation to demographics of donors and receptors, etiology of cirrhosis, cold and warm ischemia time, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD score and Child-Pugh score and classification at the time of transplantation, units of red blood cells transfused during the transplantation, intensive care unit stay, total hospital stay and 3 month and 1 year survival. RESULTS: Initially, 205 liver transplantations were analyzed. Ninety four were excluded and 111 were included: 71 on the pre-MELD era and 40 on the MELD era. The two groups were comparable in relation to donors and receptors age and sex, etiology of cirrhosis and cold and warm ischemia time. The receptors of the MELD era had more hepatocellular carcinoma than those of the pre-MELD era (37.5% vs 16.9%). Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma had less advanced cirrhosis on both eras. The MELD score was the same on both eras. Excluding the cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD era score was higher than pre-MELD score (18.2 vs 15.8). There were an increased number of transplants on Child-Pugh A and C and a decreased number on Child-Pugh B receptors on MELD era. Both eras had the same need of red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit stay and hospital stay. Also, 3 month and 1 year survival were the same: 76% and 74.6% on pre-MELD era and 75% and 70.9% on MELD era. CONCLUSION: In our center, after the introduction of MELD score as the priority criterion for liver transplantation there were an increased number of transplants with hepatocellular carcinoma. Excluding these patients, the receptors were operated upon with more advanced cirrhosis. Nevertheless the patients had the same need for red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit and hospital stay and 3 months and 1 year survival.

Survival benefit of liver transplantation and the effect of underlying liver disease

BACKGROUND

The benefit of liver transplantation relative to initial degree of underlying liver disease and time on the waiting list remains poorly defined. We sought to examine the survival benefit attributable to liver transplantation across a wide range of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

METHODS

The study population included patients with end-stage liver disease enlisted in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 2001 and 2005. Survival and hazard function for enlisted and transplanted patients were estimated using parametric and nonparametric methods. MELD score was utilized to account for underlying liver disease.

RESULTS

Of 1,130 eligible patients, 520 (46.0%) were transplanted, 266 (23.5%) died on the waiting list, 141 (12.5%) were excluded from the waiting list, and 203 (18.0%) remained enlisted and were awaiting transplantation at the time of last observation. At 1 year after transplantation, a MELD score of 15 represented a transition point in terms of overall survival benefit (MELD 10, 90% vs 83%; MELD 15, 81% vs 80%; MELD 20, 63% vs 78%; MELD 25, 42% vs 74%; MELD 30, 21% vs71%; enlisted vs transplant patients, respectively). MELD scores at which transplantation seemed to be beneficial relative to the amount of follow-up time was MELD 23, 17, 15, and 12 at 6 months, and 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively, from time of transplantation/enlistment.

CONCLUSION

Although patients with greater MELD scores enjoy a pronounced and early benefit from transplantation, patients with lesser MELD scores do gain from transplantation, although a greater period of time is needed to realize the survival benefit.

Prediction of cardiac complications after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) stresses the cardiovascular system, and cardiac complications after OLT are common.

METHODS

Hundred ninety-seven patients (>or=40 years) who had OLT from 2002 to 2007 were reviewed to identify predictors of cardiac complications within 6 months after transplantation.

RESULTS

Median age was 56 years (40-75 years); 69% men. Reasons for OLT were hepatitis C virus (HCV) 45.5%, alcohol 22%, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 8%, primary biliary cirrhosis 10%, and others 14.5%. Eighty-two patients suffered one or more cardiac complications within 6 months after OLT (pulmonary edema=61 [overt heart failure=7], arrhythmia=13, pulmonary hypertension=7, pericardial effusion=2, and right atrial thrombus=1). Cardiac causes were the leading cause of death (n=5; 23.8% of all mortality). By multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age and sex, independent predictors were adverse intraoperative cardiovascular events (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 5.89, 1.82-19.14), history of cardiac disease (2.42, 0.89-6.6), and i-MELD (integrated model for end-stage liver disease) score (1.08, 1.02-1.14), whereas adverse intraoperative cardiovascular events (5.73, 1.96-16.78) and i-MELD (1.07, 1.01-1.13) predicted pulmonary edema. None of the following variables predicted complications: age, sex, OLT indication, body mass index, blood pressure, alcohol and smoking history, pre-OLT investigations (chest X-ray, electrocardiogram, echocardiography, coronary angiography, pulmonary arterial pressure, and 2-methoxy isobutyl isonitrile scan), immunosuppressive treatment, or intraoperative variables (transfusion amount, cadaveric vs. living graft or cold ischemia and rewarming times).

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac complications after OLT are common and were the leading cause of death after surgery. Adverse intraoperative cardiovascular events, previous cardiac disease, and advanced liver disease as quantified by i-MELD score predicted postoperative cardiac complications.

ASAT/ALAT ratio provides prognostic information independently of Child-Pugh class, gender and age in non-alcoholic cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

The aspartate amino transferase/alanine amino transferase (ASAT/ALAT) ratio is increased in cirrhosis. Some studies indicate that the ratio may provide prognostic information as well. The purpose of this study was to further elucidate the role of the ASAT/ALAT ratio as a predictor of survival by assessing it together with classical risk factors such as age, gender and Child-Pugh (CP) class in a mixed cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Eighty-nine patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and 81 patients with non-alcoholic cirrhosis treated at Aker University Hospital between 1999 and 2004 were identified retrospectively. Survival data from these patients per August 2006 were retrieved from the Norwegian Death Registry. Clinical and biochemical data at time of diagnosis were assessed as predictors of survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Median ASAT/ALAT ratio was significantly higher in alcoholic cirrhosis (2.42) as compared with non-alcoholic cirrhosis (1.42). In both groups, a ratio above the median was predictive of poor outcome, p=0.024 and p=0.032, respectively. Other significant predictors of death were CP class (p<0.001), clinical decompensation (p<0.001) and age (p=0.001). Cox regression analyses showed that the ASAT/ALAT ratio was a predictor of death independently of CP class, gender and age in non-alcoholic, but not in alcoholic cirrhosis. The estimated increased hazard (risk of dying) in non-alcoholic cirrhosis was 5% (CI: 1-8%) per 0.10 increase in ASAT/ALAT ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

A high ASAT/ALAT ratio is associated with increased mortality in cirrhosis. In non-alcoholic patients the ratio may provide prognostic information independently of classical risk factors.

Analysis of liver transplantation outcome in patients with MELD Score > or = 30

Since July 2006, the liver graft allocation has been changed from the waiting time to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), prioritizing the sickest patients, who have a higher risk of dying on the waiting list, and sometimes in such poor clinical condition that it compromises transplantation outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of a MELD score > or = 30 on 30-day survival after liver transplantation (OLT). We prospectively collected the data on 178 liver transplants on 163 patients performed from March 2003 to August 2007. The subjects were divided in two groups according to their MELD scores: group 1, MELD > or = 30 (n = 15) and group 2, MELD < 30 (n = 96). The groups were compared with regard to hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay, intraoperative blood products transfusion, early survival (30 days), and need for retransplantation. We excluded, patients with prioritization criteria, those receiving extra points for any special situation, and six other patients without significant data for MELD calculation (of whom only one has died after transplantation). Patients under a "special situation" were those with hepatocelular carcinoma, hepatopulmonary syndrome, and metabolic diseases, who initially received a MELD/PELD score 20, and 24, and 29. The mean MELD score at group I was 34 (range, 30 to 42), and for group II it was 16 (range, 6 to 29). Group I displayed a mean hospital length of stay of 24 days (4 to 155), with 12.60 days (ranges, 1 to 103) in the ICU versus 15.55 (range, 1 to 48) and 5.13 (range, 1 to 45) days, respectively, for group II. The need for blood component transfusions were greater in group I; 25.28% of patients in group II did not receive any transfusion during the entire inpatient period. There were nine retransplants in group II, and none in group I. The 30-day survivals were 93.3% for group I and 84.37% for group II. Besides the increased complexity of these sickest patients, there was no negative impact on early survival rates.

Selecting an optimal prognostic system for liver cirrhosis: the model for end-stage liver disease and beyond

In comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, recent studies suggested that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) may more accurately predict the survival for patients with cirrhosis. In the US, the liver allocation system was changed in 2002 from a status-based algorithm utilizing CTP scores to one using continuous MELD severity scores as a reference system in prioritizing adult patients on the waiting list. Direct evidence that demonstrates the benefits of MELD is the fact that the mortality rates of transplant candidates on the waiting list have remarkably decreased after the implementation of the MELD. The MELD score is closely associated with the degree of portal hypertension as reflected by the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Hyponatraemia occurs as a result of advanced cirrhosis, and a serum sodium (Na) level <126 mEq/L at the time of listing for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Several MELD-derived prognostic models that incorporate serum Na into calculation have been proposed in the hopes of further improving the MELD's prognostic accuracy. Additionally, serum parameters such as creatinine and international normalized ratio are subject to interlaboratory variations and may need unifying standartisations. Patients with refractory complications of cirrhosis may need a priority MELD score to prioritize them on the waiting list. Appropriate modifications and the fine-tuning of the MELD based on well-designed prospective studies are necessary in solving the current controversial issues.

Model for end-stage liver disease score to serum sodium ratio index as a prognostic predictor and its correlation with portal pressure in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The models for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and serum sodium (SNa) are important prognostic markers in cirrhosis. A novel index, MELD to SNa ratio (MESO), was developed to amplify the opposing effect of MELD and SNa on outcome prediction.

METHODS

A total of 213 cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

The MESO index correlated with HVPG (r=0.258, P<0.001) and Child-Pugh score (rho=0.749, P<0.001). Using mortality as the end point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.860 for SNa, 0.795 for the MESO index and 0.789 for MELD (P values all >0.3) at 3 months. Among patients with Child-Pugh class A or B, the MESO index had a significantly higher AUC compared with MELD (0.80 vs. 0.766, P<0.001). A MESO index <1.6 identified 97% of patients who survived at 3 months and the predicted survival rate was 96.5%. In survival analysis, MESO index >1.6 independently predicted a higher mortality rate (relative risk: 3.32, P<0001) using the Cox model.

CONCLUSIONS

The MESO index, which takes into account the predictive power of both MELD and SNa, is a useful prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term survival in cirrhotic patients.

Survival impact of delayed treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy: is there a lead-time bias?

OBJECTIVE

Many reports indicate the importance of active treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but there are few studies available that address the impact of delayed therapy on survival or take the lead-time bias into account. The objective of this study was to investigate whether patients with delayed locoregional therapy for HCC truly have a shortened survival from the time of diagnosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Survival rates were compared between 48 HCC patients with treatment delay and 96 age- and gender-matched controls without delay. All patients underwent transarterial chemoembolization or percutaneous ethanol or acetic acid injection for HCC. Treatment delay was defined as a >2 months' time interval between diagnosis and treatment.

RESULTS

Baseline comparison showed that patients with treatment delay had higher scores in the model for endstage liver disease compared with those of patients without delay (12.3+/-1.8 versus 11.1+/-2.5, p=0.01). In the Cox multivariate model, advanced cancer stage (relative risk (RR): 2.66, p=0.001), Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B (RR: 3.81, p<0.001), tumor size >5 cm (RR: 2.02, p=0.011) and treatment delay (RR: 2.91, p=0.001) were independent poor prognostic predictors. Among patients with treatment delay, disease progression was registered in 30 (63%) patients. Patients with prolonged treatment delay (>3 months) were more likely to have tumor progression (p=0.013). In the Cox model, a treatment delay of >3 months independently predicted a poor rate of survival (RR: 3.67, p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed HCC treatment is linked with shortened overall survival unrelated to the lead-time bias in patients undergoing locoregional therapy. Prolonged treatment delay of more than 3 months in these patients may worsen the long-term outcome.

Different methods of creatinine measurement significantly affect MELD scores

Bilirubin (Bil) interferes with creatinine (Cr) measurement. Different laboratory methods are used to overcome this problem. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring incorporates Cr and is used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. Thus, MELD scores may vary with different Cr measurements influencing patients' priority. Our aim was to evaluate 4 different Cr assays (O'Leary modified Jaffe [mJCr], compensated [rate blanked] kinetic Jaffe [cJCr], enzymatic [ECr], and standard kinetic Jaffe [JCr]) in patients with abnormal liver function tests and assess changes in MELD score. A total of 403 consecutive samples from 158 patients' Cr assays were evaluated.. Bland-Altman plots and MELD scores were also evaluated for each assay. Agreement was found to be poor among all Cr assays. Increased variability in Cr occurred with increasing Bil concentrations: Bil <100 micromol/L <or=3-point MELD variation - 3-point difference in 2%; Bil >or=400micromol/L <or=7-point MELD variation - >or=3-point difference in 78%. When MELD was >or=25 (mJCr as reference; mean, 30.5 points), MELD variation was greatest: mean, 28 (MELD cJCr), 27.5 (MELD ECr), and 28.4 (MELD JCr) (P < 0.001). In conclusion, there is poor agreement among different assays for Cr. As Bil concentration rises, there is greater variability in each creatinine measurements and thus greater variability in MELD scores that, this affect prioritization for liver transplantation.

Early mortality in Taiwanese lamivudine-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B-related decompensation: evaluation of the model for end-stage liver disease and index scoring systems as prognostic predictors

BACKGROUND

Both Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Index scores have been used to predict mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease and cirrhosis in Western countries.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine mortality rates, identify prognostic indicators, and determine the usefulness of these 2 scoring systems in predicting short-term (6-month) survival in Taiwanese patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related decompensation who were treated with lamivudine.

METHODS

This study was conducted at the Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital and the Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Eligible patients were aged 18 to 85 years with CHB with related decompensation (with either serum total bilirubin level, >or=3 mg/dL or prolonged prothrombin time, >or=3 seconds) and were treatment naive. All patients were treated with lamivudine 100 mg PO (tablet) once daily; surviving patients were treated for at least 6 months. The clinical data, including hepatitis B surface antigen, hepatitis B e antigen, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, were measured before treatment. Pre-treatment MELD and Index scores were calculated for all patients.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients were enrolled (79 men, 17 women; mean [SD] age, 44.5 [15.2] years). Thirteen (13.5%) patients died within 6 months. Higher international normalized ratio (INR) for prothrombin time, lower albumin level, and higher HBV DNA level (>or=10(5) copies/mL) were factors significantly associated with death. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting survival by the MELD and Index scores were 0.822 and 0.788, respectively. Albumin level, which was not included in the scoring systems, also was found to be a significant predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

: We found that with a 13.5% mortality rate, albumin, INR, and HBV DNA levels were good prognostic indicators in Taiwanese patients with CHB-related decompensation treated with lamivudine therapy. The MELD and Index scoring systems were good predictors of 6-month survival in the patients in this study.

Limitation of the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis-related complications

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy are major complications of cirrhosis and traditional indications for liver transplantation evaluation. However, these complications are not included in the MELD and it is not clear if these complications correlate with MELD score in terms of outcome prediction. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of cirrhosis-related complication as a prognostic predictor in 290 cirrhotic patients. The MELD score and outcome were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis-related complications. There was no significant difference of the MELD score between patients with (n = 67) and without (n = 223) complications (11.6 +/- 2.9 vs. 12.2 +/- 3.2, p = 0.184). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 for MELD vs. 0.604 for complications (p = 0.174) at six months, and the area was 0.641 for MELD vs. 0.611 for complications (p = 0.522) at 12 months. A high MELD score and presence of complications had a similar profile of predictive accuracy and both were significant predictors of mortality at six and 12 months in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients with cirrhosis-related complications at presentation had a decreased survival compared with those without complications (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a predictor of poor prognosis. While early transplantation referral is recommended, these patients do not necessarily have a higher MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.

Prevalence and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in moderate term survivors of liver transplantation

The prevalence and risk factors for diabetes mellitus after liver transplantation are not well understood. Thus, we sought to identify independent risk factors for the development of diabetes after liver transplantation using currently accepted medical criteria. We studied the prevalence and risk factors in 253 adult recipients transplanted at UCLA between January 1998 and December 2002. Analysis of the retrospective data was performed using demographic, immunosuppression and liver disease variables. Factors found to be significant on a univariate analysis were further studied in a multivariate analysis. There were 158 men and 95 women in our study. The mean age was 51.4 +/- 11.0 years. The mean [+/- standard deviation (SD) pretransplant body mass index was 26.7 (+/-5.1). Most patients were transplanted for hepatitis C (HCV). The prevalence of diabetes after transplantation was 17.8%. In a multivariate analysis only gender [odds ratio (OR) = 0.37; p = 0.02] was independently predictive of the development of diabetes. This study in a large liver transplant recipient population identifies male gender as an independent risk factor for the development of diabetes. Follow-up studies are needed to assess the impact of diabetes, and its intervention on post-transplant morbidity and mortality.

The sequential changes of the model for end-stage liver disease score correlate with the severity of liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. It is not clear whether MELD correlates with liver functional reserve that changes over time. This study investigated the correlation of sequential changes between MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A total of 192 HCC patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy were studied.

RESULTS

The MELD and CTP scores of study patients at pretreatment, early (median, 2 wk) and late (median, 8 wk) stage after treatment were 10.1+/-3.5, 12.9+/-3.2, and 11.7+/-3.1, and 6.2+/-1.1, 7.5+/-1.1, and 6.9+/-1.2, respectively. There was a significant correlation of the serial changes for the period between pretreatment and early stage (rho=0.605, P<0.001), and between early to late stage (rho=0.512, P<0.001) after treatment. The corresponding increase and decrease of MELD score was 2.1 and 2.0, respectively, per unit change of the CTP score. The correlation was still significant in the stratified analysis according to various clinical parameters. In the Cox multivariate model, tumor size >5 cm [relative risk (RR)=2.58, P<0.001], multiple HCCs (RR=1.78, P=0.013), CTP class B or C (RR=3.06, P<0.001), and MELD score >15 (RR=2.17, P=0.023) were independent poor prognostic predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Serial determinations of the MELD score well correlate with the changes of CTP score. The MELD score may be useful in measuring liver functional reserve and outcome prediction in HCC patients undergoing locoregional therapy.

Management of patients with cirrhosis in Southern California: results of a practitioner survey

INTRODUCTION

Cirrhosis is an important medical and public health concern. A paucity of data exists on how patients with cirrhosis are managed. Our aims were to determine how cirrhosis is managed and whether current management practices follow established recommendations.

METHODS

A questionnaire was mailed to Southern California Society of Gastroenterology members. Most had practiced for more than 15 years (67%) in a private practice setting (69%). Proportions of physicians who followed established guidelines versus those who had not were compared using chi test.

RESULTS

Hepatitis A, hepatitis B, influenza, and pneumococcus vaccinations were recommended by most respondents. Ninety-one percent of respondents routinely screened patients for hepatocellular carcinoma. A significantly greater proportion of respondents screened for hepatocellular carcinoma using either alpha-fetoprotein or ultrasound every 6 months (P < 0.05). Seventy-six percent recommended antibiotic prophylaxis in patients with prior spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, whereas less than half recommended prophylaxis in patients with ascitic protein fluid <1 g/dL, current variceal bleed, and those on the liver transplant list. Sixty-seven percent of respondents performed screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy upon diagnosis of cirrhosis. Most respondents did not recommend repeating endoscopy in 1 to 2 years if a patient was found to have small varices (P < 0.05), and would repeat an endoscopy if large varices were found (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The management of patients with cirrhosis in the community varied and did not always conform to established guidelines. These results should be confirmed in a larger group of physicians, and the rationales for physicians accepting or rejecting established guidelines should be further assessed.

Occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a time-dependent prognostic predictor independent of baseline model for end-stage liver disease score

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Many cirrhosis-related complications are indications for transplantation but are not included in MELD. This study investigated the impact of these complications on survival and association with MELD.

METHODS

The mortality risk of cirrhosis-related complications, including bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome and hepatic decompensation, was analyzed using a time-dependent Cox regression model in 227 cirrhotic patients.

RESULTS

A total of 281 episodes of complications occurred in 142 (63%) patients. Patients who died had a significantly higher baseline MELD score compared with those who survived (14.5 +/- 4.5 vs 12.8 +/- 3.9, P = 0.004). There was no significant difference in the MELD score between patients with and without the occurrence of complications (13.6 +/- 4.3 vs 12.9 +/- 4.0, P = 0.093). Patients with a higher baseline MELD score tended to develop early complications (rho = -0.598, P< 0.001). Using the Cox regression model, the risk ratio of mortality was 4.9 (95% confidence interval: 3.9-6.3, P< 0.0001) for each additional episode of complication.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality risk increases as the number of complication episodes increases. While patients with repeated complications have a poor outcome, they do not necessarily have a higher baseline MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.

Different model for end-stage liver disease score block distributions may have a variable ability for outcome prediction

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system has become the prevailing criteria for organ allocation in liver transplantation. However, it is not clear if the predictive accuracy of MELD is equally homogeneous in different distribution of MELD score blocks.

METHODS

We investigated 472 cirrhotic patients (mean MELD, 14.3+/-5.5), and compared the predictive accuracy of MELD and the corresponding Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with low (<16), intermediate (10-20) and high (>14) MELD score range by using c-statistic for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at different time frames.

RESULTS

The MELD scores well correlated with CTP scores at baseline (rho=0.492, P<0.001). Overall, MELD was significantly better than the CTP system to predict the risk of mortality. However, in stratified analysis there were no significant differences between MELD and CTP for the c-statistic in patients with low and intermediate range MELD scores at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month (p values all > 0 1). Among patients with high MELD scores, MELD was consistently more accurate than the CTP system in predicting the mortality at 3- (AUC, 0.715 vs. 0.543, P=0.020), 6- (0.705 vs. 0.536, P=0.003), 9- (0.737 vs. 0.507, P<0.001) and 12-month (0.716 vs. 0.526, P<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD has a better performance only in a subset of patients with higher MELD scores. The outcome in patients with lower range MELD scores cannot be reliably predicted solely with their MELD scores, and alternative prognostic markers should be used in conjunction to enhance the predictive accuracy.

Proposal of a modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system and comparison with the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has a better predictive accuracy for survival than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system and has been the primary reference for organ allocation in liver transplantation. The CTP system, with a score range of 5-15, has a ceiling effect that may compromise its predictive power. In this study, we proposed a refined CTP scoring method and investigated its predictive ability. An additional point was given to patients with serum albumin < 2.3 g/dL, bilirubin > 8 mg/dL or prothrombin time prolongation > 11 seconds. The modified CTP system, containing class D, was compared to the MELD and original CTP system in 436 patients. There was a significant correlation between the MELD and modified CTP score (rho = 0.59, P< 0.001). Using mortality as the endpoint, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve for modified CTP system was 0.895 compared with 0.872 for MELD (P = 0.450) and 0.809 for original CTP system (P < 0.001) at 3 months; the area was 0.890, 0.837 and 0.756, respectively (P = 0.051 and < 0.001, respectively) at 6 months. The risk ratio per unit increase for the modified CTP score was 2.7 and 3.08 at 3 and 6 months respectively (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the modified CTP system can be proposed as an alternative prognostic model for cirrhotic patients. By extending the score range according to the influence of the laboratory-derived variables, the modified CTP system has a better performance than the original system and is as efficient as the MELD for outcome prediction.

An inhibitor of cyclin-dependent kinase, stress-induced p21Waf-1/Cip-1, mediates hepatocyte mito-inhibition during the evolution of cirrhosis

During the evolution of cirrhosis, there is a relative decrease in volume percentage of hepatocytes and a relative increase in biliary epithelial cells and myofibroblasts. This is recognized histopathologically as a ductular reaction and leads to gradual distortion of the normal hepatic architecture. The final or decompensated stage of cirrhosis is characterized by a further decline in hepatocyte proliferation and loss of functional liver mass that manifests clinically as ascites, encephalopathy, and other signs of liver failure. In this report, we tested the hypothesis that p21-mediated hepatocyte mito-inhibition accelerates the evolution of cirrhosis using an established mouse model of decompensated biliary cirrhosis, p21-deficient mice, and liver tissue from humans awaiting liver replacement. Despite the same insult of long-term (12-week) bile duct ligation, mice prone to decompensation showed significantly more oxidative stress and hepatocyte nuclear p21 expression, which resulted in less hepatocyte proliferation, an exaggerated ductular reaction, and more advanced disease compared with compensation-prone controls. Mice deficient in p21 were better able than wild-type controls to compensate for long-term bile duct ligation because of significantly greater hepatocyte proliferation, which led to a larger liver mass and less architectural distortion. Mito-inhibitory hepatocyte nuclear p21 expression in humans awaiting liver replacement directly correlated with pathological disease stage and model of end-stage liver disease scoring. In conclusion, stress-induced upregulation of hepatocyte p21 inhibits hepatocyte proliferation during the evolution of cirrhosis. These findings have implications for understanding the evolution of cirrhosis and associated carcinogenesis. Supplementary material for this article can be found on the HEPATOLOGY website (http://interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-9139/suppmat/index.html).

Evaluation of the increase in model for end-stage liver disease (DeltaMELD) score over time as a prognostic predictor in patients with advanced cirrhosis: risk factor analysis and comparison with initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. The change in MELD score over time (DeltaMELD) may have additional prognostic value. We investigated the ability of DeltaMELD to predict the outcome of advanced cirrhosis and prospectively assessed the factors associated with increasing DeltaMELD.

METHODS

Risk factors were determined in 58 prospectively followed-up patients. The predictive power of DeltaMELD, initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score was compared by using c-statistic in 351 patients.

RESULTS

Ascites (P=0.020) and hepatic encephalopathy (P=0.023) were significantly associated with increasing MELD score at 3 months. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for DeltaMELD/month was 0.779 compared with 0.718 for MELD (P=0.130) and 0.528 for CTP score (P<0.001) at 6 months; the area was 0.822, 0.744 and 0.528, respectively (P=0.018 and <0.001, respectively) at 12 months. DeltaMELD/month >2.5 was the only significant prognostic predictor at 6 (odds ratio: 9.8, P<0.001) and 12 months (odds ratio: 16.3, P<0.001) in multivariate logistic analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing MELD score is associated with the onset of ascites and encephalopathy. DeltaMELD is superior to initial MELD and CTP scores to predict intermediate term outcome in patients with advanced cirrhosis.

Determination of the optimal model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been a prevailing system to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. An "exceptional" MELD score of 20 and 24 points is assigned for stage T1 and T2 patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), respectively. However, this strategy is based on scarce data and the optimal score for these patients remains uncertain. We investigated 238 patients with small HCC who were candidates for liver transplantation and underwent arterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy using acetic acid or ethanol. Tumor stage (P = .001) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class (P < .001) were independent risk factors predicting tumor progression or death in survival analysis. The risk of disease progression in HCC patients stratified by tumor stage was mapped and equated with the risk of mortality of 456 cirrhotic patients without HCC. The 6- and 12-month rates of disease progression were 4% and 6%, respectively, for stage T1 HCC patients (n = 50; mean MELD: 9.5). These rates were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 8-12 at the corresponding time period (7.1% and 11.3%, respectively; n = 141). For stage T2 patients (n = 188; mean MELD: 9.3), the corresponding rates were 5.3% and 13.8%, respectively, which were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 10-14 (9.0% and 13.9%, respectively, n = 166). In conclusion, the risk of disease progression is quite low for selected HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy. A lower MELD score may be suggested to be equivalent to the risk of short- and mid-term mortality in the cirrhosis group.