A multifactorial risk prioritization framework for foodborne pathogens

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

An Integrated Paper Microfluidic Device Based on Isothermal Amplification for Simple Sample-to-Answer Detection of Campylobacter jejuni

Campylobacter jejuni is recognized as the most common species in the genus Campylobacter that causes foodborne diseases. The main reservoirs harboring C. jejuni are poultry products, which are associated with most illnesses, creating a demand for effective detection methods to achieve point-of-need diagnostics. We developed an easy-to-use, hybrid paper/polymer-based microfluidic device that integrates paper-based DNA extraction, isothermal nucleic acid amplification, and lateral flow detection. Overall, the recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) reaction was completed in 20 min and demonstrated 100% specificity to C. jejuni, including 2 reference strains and 6 wild strains isolated from the agroecosystem, 9 other Campylobacter subspecies strains, and 11 non-Campylobacter strains. The limit of detection (LOD) was 46 CFU/mL with DNA extracted on the cellulose paper. The sensitivity was reduced to 460 CFU/mL on the integrated hybrid paper/polymer-based microfluidic device. This device could detect C. jejuni spiked at concentrations ranging from 101 to 102 CFU/g in chicken meat after an enrichment of 5 to 10 h. For C. jejuni levels of >102 CFU/g, it managed to confirm positive results immediately, without bacterial enrichment. RPA reagents and primers remained stable on the paper platform at 22°C for 12 h. After lyophilization and storage on paper, the RPA reaction showed consistent sensitivity for 3 days, and the LOD was reduced to 103 CFU/mL when storage was extended to 25 days. The use of this hybrid paper/polymer-based microfluidic device enabled detection of Campylobacter in foods with high specificity and sensitivity, demonstrating its potential as a reliable point-of-need diagnostic platform for on-site conditions due to its low cost, portability, and simplicity. IMPORTANCE The global health and economic burden of Campylobacter prompts the development of novel detection techniques that can be implemented in resource-limited and on-site settings. This study described point-of-need identification of C. jejuni using a hybrid paper/polymer-based microfluidic device that is easy to operate. This device had high specificity and sensitivity toward C. jejuni and significantly reduced the total analysis time compared to conventional culture-based methods. Nucleic acid extraction was simplified from intensive pipetting to a paper dipstick, making it more convenient for use in the field as a promising tool for future routine surveillance and outbreak investigation.

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

A Rapid Literature Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Support Methods in the Context of One Health for All-Hazards Threat Prioritization

Background

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that can be used in public health emergency management. The use of a One Health lens in MCDA can support the prioritization of threats and interventions which cut across the human, animal, and environmental domains. Previous literature reviews have focused on creating a snapshot of MCDA methodological trends. Our study provides an update to the MCDA methods literature with key considerations from a One Health perspective and addresses the application of MCDA in an all-hazards decision-making context.

Methods

We conducted a literature search on MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, the CAB database, and a limited online gray literature search in partnership with a librarian from Health Canada. Articles were limited to those published in the year 2010 or later in a high-income setting (OECD member countries).

Results

Sixty-two articles were included for synthesis. Of these articles, most were Canadian studies (20%); and prioritized health risks, threats, and interventions in the human domain (69%). Six commonly used prioritization criteria were identified: threat, health, intervention, strategic, social, and economic impact. Stakeholders were engaged in 85% of studies and commonly consisted of government groups, non-governmental groups, subject matter experts, and the public. While most articles (65%) included elements of One Health based on our definition, only 5 studies (9%) explicitly acknowledged One Health as a guiding principle for the study. Forty seven percentage of studies noted that MCDA was beneficial in supporting the decision-making process.

Conclusion

Current literature on health prioritization presents some variability in the depth of integration of the One Health framework and on the use of various MCDA methodologies given prioritization objectives. Studies which applied a comprehensive One Health approach, prioritized disparate threats, or conducted cyclical prioritizations for governing bodies were broad in scope, but sparse. The results of our review indicate the need for better guidance on the integration of a One Health approach and the use of various MCDA methods given the main prioritization objectives.

Use and Misuse of MCDA to Support Decision Making Informed by Risk

Recent guidelines for risk-informed decision making (RIDM) provide a gold-standard for how to incorporate probabilistic risk models in conjunction with other considerations in a decision process. Nevertheless, risk quantification using probabilistic and statistical methods is difficult in situations where threat, vulnerability, and consequences are highly uncertain and risk quantification. In such situations a wider variety of methods could be employed, which we call decision making informed by risk (DMIR) combining risk and decision analytics. Risk informed decision making (RIDM) can be considered as a special case of DMIR. Multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) often serves as a basis for DMIR in order to flexibly accommodate different levels of analytical detail. DMIR often involves artful use of proxy variables that correlate with, and are more measurable than, underlying factors of interest. This article introduces the notion of DMIR and discusses the use of MCDA in its application in the context of risk-based problems. MCDA-based risk analyses identify metrics associated with threats of concern and system vulnerabilities, characterize the way in which alternative actions can affect these threats and vulnerabilities, and ultimately synthesize this information to compare, prioritize, or select alternative mitigation strategies. Simple linear additive MCDA models often integrate these inputs, but the same simplicity can limit such approaches and create pitfalls and more advanced models including multiplicative relationships can be warranted. This essay qualitatively explores the critical practitioner questions of how and when the use of linear multicriteria models creates significant problems, and how to avoid them.

Risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition - Outcome of the 2019 Parma Summer School

Risk-benefit assessment is the comparison of the risk of a situation to its related benefits, i.e. a comparison of scenarios estimating the overall health impact. The risk-benefit analysis paradigm mirrors the classical risk analysis one: risk-benefit assessment goes hand-in-hand with risk-benefit management and risk-benefit communication. The various health effects associated with food consumption, together with the increasing demand for advice on healthy and safe diets, have led to the development of different research disciplines in food safety and nutrition. In this sense, there is a clear need for a holistic approach, including and comparing all of the relevant health risks and benefits. The risk-benefit assessment of foods is a valuable approach to estimate the overall impact of food on health. It aims to assess together the negative and positive health effects associated with food intake by integrating chemical and microbiological risk assessment with risk and benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition. The 2019 Parma Summer School on risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition had the objective was to provide an opportunity to learn from experts in the field of risk-benefit approach in food safety and nutrition, including theory, case studies, and communication of risk-benefit assessments plus identify challenges for the future. It was evident that whereas tools and approaches have been developed, more and more case studies have been performed which can form an inherent validation of the risk-benefit approach. Executed risk-benefit assessment case studies apply the steps and characteristics developed: a problem formulation (with at least 2 scenarios), a tiered approach until a decision can be made, one common currency to describe both beneficial and adverse effects (DALYs in most instances). It was concluded that risk-benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition is gaining more and more momentum, while also many challenges remain for the future. Risk-benefit is on the verge of really enrolling into the risk assessment and risk analysis paradigm. The interaction between risk-benefit assessors and risk-benefit managers is pivotal in this, as is the interaction with risk-benefit communicators.

Food Supply without Risk: Multicriteria Analysis of Institutional Conditions of Exporters

International trade in food knows no borders, hence the need for prevention systems to avoid the consumption of products that are harmful to health. This paper proposes the use of multicriteria risk prevention tools that consider the socioeconomic and institutional conditions of food exporters. We propose the use of three decision-making methods—Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Elimination et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), and Cross-Efficiency (CE)—to establish a ranking of countries that export cereals to the European Union, based on structural criteria related to the detection of potential associated risks (notifications, food quality, corruption, environmental sustainability in agriculture, and logistics). In addition, the analysis examines whether the wealth and institutional capacity of supplier countries influence their position in the ranking. The research was carried out biannually over the period from 2012–2016, allowing an assessment to be made of the possible stability of the markets. The results reveal that suppliers’ rankings based exclusively on aspects related to food risk differ from importers’ actual choices determined by micro/macroeconomic features (price, production volume, and economic growth). The rankings obtained by the three proposed methods are not the same, but present certain similarities, with the ability to discern countries according to their level of food risk. The proposed methodology can be applied to support sourcing strategies. In the future, food safety considerations could have increased influence in importing decisions, which would involve further difficulties for low-income countries.

Combining Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Health, Food Waste, and Energy Consumption: The Next Step in the Development of the Food Cold Chain?

The preservation of perishable food via refrigeration in the supply chain is essential to extend shelf life and provide consumers with safe food. However, electricity consumed in refrigeration processes has an economical and an environmental impact. This study focuses on the cold chain of cooked ham, including transport, cold room in supermarket, display cabinet, transport by consumer, and domestic refrigerator, and aims to predict the risk for human health associated with Listeria monocytogenes, the amount of food wasted due to the growth of spoilage bacteria, and the electrical consumption to maintain product temperature through the cold chain. A set of eight intervention actions were tested to evaluate their impact on the three criteria. Results show that the modification of the thermostat of the domestic refrigerator has a high impact on food safety and food waste and a limited impact on the electrical consumption. Inversely, the modification of the airflow rate in the display cabinet has a high impact on electrical consumption and a limited impact on food safety and food waste. A cost-benefit analysis approach and two multicriteria decision analysis methods were used to rank the intervention actions. These three methodologies show that setting the thermostat of the domestic refrigerator to 4 °C presents the best compromise between the three criteria. The impact of decisionmaker preferences (criteria weight) and limitations of these three approaches are discussed. The approaches proposed by this study may be useful in decision making to evaluate global impact of intervention actions in issues involving conflicting outputs.

Risk Benefit Assessment of foods: Key findings from an international workshop

Whilst risk management measures, including food policy, are developed for the protection of public health and the environment, they may also lead to a reduction in health benefits. Policy decisions require then consideration of these necessary trade-offs, which leads to an increasing need to apply formal risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. In this context, the European Food Safety Authority sponsored a Risk-Benefit Assessment Workshop on "past, current and future developments within the risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA)" held in May 2017. The overall aims of the RBA Workshop were to discuss existing methods, challenges and needs within RBA, and to draft a roadmap for future development of RBA. The specific objectives were to i) identify RBA activities in Europe and globally; ii) discuss how to further develop and optimize RBA methodology; iii) identify challenges and opportunities within RBA; and iv) increase collaboration internationally. The two-day workshop gathered 28 participants from 16 institutions in 11 countries. It included technical presentations of RBA methods and case studies, and two break-out sessions for group discussions. All participants agreed that RBA has substantial potential to inform risk-management decisions in the areas of food safety, nutrition and public health. Several activities to optimize further developments within RBA were suggested. This paper provides a summary of workshop presentations, a discussion of challenges that limit progress in this area, and suggestions of next steps for this promising approach supporting a science-based decision process in the area of risk-benefit management of foods.

World Health Organization Methodology to Prioritize Emerging Infectious Diseases in Need of Research and Development

The World Health Organization R&D Blueprint aims to accelerate the availability of medical technologies during epidemics by focusing on a list of prioritized emerging diseases for which medical countermeasures are insufficient or nonexistent. The prioritization process has 3 components: a Delphi process to narrow down a list of potential priority diseases, a multicriteria decision analysis to rank the short list of diseases, and a final Delphi round to arrive at a final list of 10 diseases. A group of international experts applied this process in January 2017, resulting in a list of 10 priority diseases. The robustness of the list was tested by performing a sensitivity analysis. The new process corrected major shortcomings in the pre-R&D Blueprint approach to disease prioritization and increased confidence in the results.

Risk ranking of foodborne parasites: State of the art

In a time of increasing threats and decreasing financial resources, monitoring and controlling all possible foodborne hazards at the same time and to the same extent has become more challenging than ever. Therefore, attention is increasingly being paid to the so-called "risk ranking" methods that enable decision makers to focus on the most important foodborne hazards - even when time is limited and knowledge incomplete. In this review paper, we provide an overview of the most common quantitative methods and metrics used for ranking the risks associated with foodborne parasites and present the state of the art on risk ranking exercises for foodborne parasites. A number of risk ranking metrics and methods are available, ranging from simple approaches that can be used to assess the health or economic impact of a foodborne parasitic disease, to more complicated but more comprehensive multi-criteria assessments. For health impact assessment, measures of population health such as disease occurrence and number of deaths; Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measuring the healthy life years lost; and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) measuring the number of life years lived in optimal health, are described. For economic impact assessment, applied approaches that measure the cost-of-illness from a societal perspective and stated preference methods are outlined. Finally, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), which can be used to integrate multiple metrics and criteria into a single ranking, is described. These risk ranking methods for foodborne parasites are increasingly performed to aid priority setting at global, regional, and national levels. As different stakeholders have their own prioritization objectives and beliefs, the outcome of such exercises is necessarily context-dependent. Therefore, when designing a risk ranking exercise for foodborne parasites, it is important to choose the metrics and methods, as well as what to rank, in the light of the predefined context of the question being addressed and the target audience.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts' Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts' confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best-case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public-sector experts express lower confidence than private-sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology-specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts' uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones.

Application of a Rapid Knowledge Synthesis and Transfer Approach To Assess the Microbial Safety of Low-Moisture Foods

Low-moisture foods (LMF) are increasingly implicated in outbreaks of foodborne illness, resulting in a significant public health burden. To inform the development of a new Codex Alimentarius code of hygienic practice for LMF, we applied a rapid knowledge synthesis and transfer approach to review global research on the burden of illness, prevalence, and interventions to control nine selected microbial hazards in eight categories of LMF. Knowledge synthesis methods included an integrated scoping review (search strategy, relevance screening and confirmation, and evidence mapping), systematic review (detailed data extraction), and meta-analysis of prevalence data. Knowledge transfer of the results was achieved through multiple reporting formats, including evidence summary cards. We identified 214 unique outbreaks and 204 prevalence and 126 intervention studies. Cereals and grains (n = 142) and Salmonella (n = 278) were the most commonly investigated LMF and microbial hazard categories, respectively. Salmonella was implicated in the most outbreaks (n = 96, 45%), several of which were large and widespread, resulting in the most hospitalizations (n = 895, 89%) and deaths (n = 14, 74%). Salmonella had a consistently low prevalence across all LMF categories (0 to 3%), but the prevalence of other hazards (e.g., Bacillus cereus) was highly variable. A variety of interventions were investigated in small challenge trials. Key knowledge gaps included underreporting of LMF outbreaks, limited reporting of microbial levels in prevalence studies, and a lack of intervention efficacy research under commercial conditions. Summary cards were a useful knowledge transfer format to inform complementary risk ranking activities. This review builds upon previous work in this area by synthesizing a broad range of evidence using a structured, transparent, and integrated approach to provide timely evidence informed inputs into international guidelines.

An assessment of antimicrobial resistant disease threats in Canada

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of infectious agents is a growing concern for public health organizations. Given the complexity of this issue and how widespread the problem has become, resources are often insufficient to address all concerns, thus prioritization of AMR pathogens is essential for the optimal allocation of risk management attention. Since the epidemiology of AMR pathogens differs between countries, country-specific assessments are important for the determination of national priorities.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a systematic and transparent approach to AMR risk prioritization in Canada.

METHODS

Relevant AMR pathogens in Canada were selected through a transparent multi-step consensus process (n=32). Each pathogen was assessed using ten criteria: incidence, mortality, case-fatality, communicability, treatability, clinical impact, public/political attention, ten-year projection of incidence, economic impact, and preventability. For each pathogen, each criterion was assigned a numerical score of 0, 1, or 2, and multiplied by criteria-specific weighting determined through researcher consensus of importance. The scores for each AMR pathogen were summed and ranked by total score, where a higher score indicated greater importance. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effects of changing the criteria-specific weights.

RESULTS

The AMR pathogen with the highest total weighted score was extended spectrum B-lactamase-producing (ESBL) Enterobacteriaceae (score=77). When grouped by percentile, ESBL Enterobacteriaceae, Clostridium difficile, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus were in the 80-100th percentile.

CONCLUSION

This assessment provides useful information for prioritising public health strategies regarding AMR resistance at the national level in Canada. As the AMR environment and challenges change over time and space, this systematic and transparent approach can be adapted for use by other stakeholders domestically and internationally. Given the complexity of influences, resource availability and multiple stakeholders, regular consideration of AMR activities in the public health realm is essential for appropriate and responsible prioritisation of risk management that optimises the health and security of the population.

A scoping review of the evidence for public health risks of three emerging potentially zoonotic viruses: hepatitis E virus, norovirus, and rotavirus

Emerging zoonoses are defined as those newly recognized, or increasing in incidence or geographic range. Hepatitis E virus (HEV), norovirus (NoV), and rotavirus (RV), while well known to be transmitted person-person, have also been hypothesized to be emerging zoonoses. Our objective was to investigate their potential public health risks from animal reservoirs. Given the diversity of evidence sources, a scoping review incorporating a mixed methods synthesis approach was used. A broad search was conducted in five electronic databases. Each citation was appraised independently by two reviewers using screening tools designed and tested a priori. Level 1 relevance screening excluded irrelevant citations; level 2 confirmed relevance and categorized. At level 3 screening, data were extracted to support a risk profile. A stakeholder group provided input on study tools and knowledge translation and transfer. Level 1 screening captured 2471 citations, with 1270 advancing to level 2 screening, and 1094 to level 3. We defined criteria for case attribution to zoonosis for each virus. Using these criteria, we identified a small number of zoonotic cases (HEV n=3, NoV=0, RV=40 (zoonoses=3; human-animal re-assortants=37)) categorized as 'likely'. The available evidence suggests the following potential HEV human exposure sources: swine, other domestic animals, wildlife, surface waters, and asymptomatic human shedders. Possible at-risk groups include the immunocompromised and the elderly. Reports of NoV intergenogroup recombinants suggest potential for human-animal recombination. Greatest public health impact for RV zoonoses may be the potential effect of human-animal reassortants on vaccination efficacy.

Cost-of-illness and disease burden of food-related pathogens in the Netherlands, 2011

To inform risk management decisions on control and prevention of food-related disease, both the disease burden expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) and the cost-of-illness of food-related pathogens are estimated and presented. Disease burden of fourteen pathogens that can be transmitted by food, the environment, animals and humans was previously estimated by Havelaar et al. (2012). In this paper we complement these by cost-of-illness estimates. Together, these present a complete picture of the societal burden of food-related diseases. Using incidence estimates for 2011, community-acquired non-consulting cases, patients consulting their general practitioner, hospitalized patients and the incidence of sequelae and fatal cases, estimates were obtained for DALYs, direct healthcare costs (e.g. costs for doctor's fees, hospitalizations and medicines), direct non-healthcare costs (e.g. travel costs to and from the doctor), indirect non-healthcare costs (e.g. productivity loss, special education) and total costs. The updated disease burden for 2011 was equal to 13,940 DALY/year (undiscounted) or 12,650 DALY/year (discounted at 1.5%), and was of the same magnitude as previous estimates. At the population-level thermophilic Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii and rotavirus were associated with the highest disease burden. Perinatal listeriosis infection was associated with the highest DALY per symptomatic case. The total cost-of-illness in 2011 of fourteen food-related pathogens and associated sequelae was estimated at € 468 million/year, if undiscounted, and at € 416 million/year if discounted by 4%. Direct healthcare costs accounted for 24% of total costs, direct non-healthcare costs for 2% and indirect non-healthcare costs for 74% of total costs. At the population-level, norovirus had the highest total cost-of-illness in 2011 with € 106 million/year, followed by thermophilic Campylobacter spp. (€ 76 million/year) and rotavirus (€ 73 million/year). Cost-of-illness per infected case varied from € 150 for Clostridium perfringens intoxications to € 275,000 for perinatal listeriosis. Both incident cases and fatal cases are more strongly correlated with COI/year than with DALY/year. More than 40% of all cost-of-illness and DALYs can be attributed to food, in total € 168 million/year and 5,150 DALY/year for 2011. Beef, lamb, pork and poultry meat alone accounted for 39% of these costs. Products of animal origin accounted for € 86 million/year (or 51% of the costs attributed to food) and 3,320 DALY/year (or 64% of the disease burden attributed to food). Among the pathogens studied Staphylococcus aureus intoxications accounted for the highest share of costs attributed to food (€ 47.1 million/year), followed by Campylobacter spp. (€ 32.0 million/year) and norovirus (€ 17.7 million/year).

Experiences and attitudes towards evidence-informed policy-making among research and policy stakeholders in the Canadian agri-food public health sector

Policy-makers working at the interface of agri-food and public health often deal with complex and cross-cutting issues that have broad health impacts and socio-economic implications. They have a responsibility to ensure that policy-making based on these issues is accountable and informed by the best available scientific evidence. We conducted a qualitative descriptive study of agri-food public health policy-makers and research and policy analysts in Ontario, Canada, to understand their perspectives on how the policy-making process is currently informed by scientific evidence and how to facilitate this process. Five focus groups of 3-7 participants and five-one-to-one interviews were held in 2012 with participants from federal and provincial government departments and industry organizations in the agri-food public health sector. We conducted a thematic analysis of the focus group and interview transcripts to identify overarching themes. Participants indicated that the following six key principles are necessary to enable and demonstrate evidence-informed policy-making (EIPM) in this sector: (i) establish and clarify the policy objectives and context; (ii) support policy-making with credible scientific evidence from different sources; (iii) integrate scientific evidence with other diverse policy inputs (e.g. economics, local applicability and stakeholder interests); (iv) ensure that scientific evidence is communicated by research and policy stakeholders in relevant and user-friendly formats; (V) create and foster interdisciplinary relationships and networks across research and policy communities; and (VI) enhance organizational capacity and individual skills for EIPM. Ongoing and planned efforts in these areas, a supportive culture, and additional education and training in both research and policy realms are important to facilitate evidence-informed policy-making in this sector. Future research should explore these findings further in other countries and contexts.

Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli: costs of illness in Canada, including long-term health outcomes

The main objective of this study was to provide cost estimates of human Escherichia coli O157 infection to facilitate future assessment of the benefits and costs of alternative preventive strategies to reduce illness. We investigated the costs of illness to Canadians from primary human infection by verotoxigenic E. coli O157 (also called Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157) using data from the National Notifiable Diseases Registry. We used relative risk information from peer-reviewed publications to estimate the burden of illness and associated costs for eight long-term health outcomes. National estimates of the number of cases (mean and 5th and 95th percentiles), associated costs, and a rank correlation test to identify which outcomes were associated with the highest per capita costs were calculated. An estimated 22,344 cases of primary infections occur in Canada annually, costing $26.7 million. There are 37,867 additional on-going long-term health outcomes costing $377.2 million each year. Our analysis indicated that the annual cost for primary and long-term illness is $403.9 million. The analysis supports evaluation of alternative control and prevention measures and the development and implementation of policy and practices aimed at safe food production.

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for environmental development and transfer of antibiotic resistance

BACKGROUND

Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks.

OBJECTIVE

We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

METHODS

The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options.

DISCUSSION

Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental "hot spot" compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose-response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers.

Development of an influenza virologic risk assessment tool

Influenza pandemics pose a continuous risk to human and animal health and may engender food security issues worldwide. As novel influenza A virus infections in humans are identified, pandemic preparedness strategies necessarily involve decisions regarding which viruses should be included for further studies and mitigation efforts. Resource and time limitations dictate that viruses determined to pose the greatest risk to public or animal health should be selected for further research to fill information gaps and, potentially, for development of vaccine candidates that could be put in libraries, manufactured and stockpiled, or even administered to protect susceptible populations of animals or people. A need exists to apply an objective, science-based risk assessment to the process of evaluating influenza viruses. During the past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began developing a tool to evaluate influenza A viruses that are not circulating in the human population but pose a pandemic risk. The objective is to offer a standardized set of considerations to be applied when evaluating prepandemic viruses. The tool under consideration is a simple, additive model, based on multiattribute decision analysis. The model includes elements that address the properties of the virus itself and population attributes, considers both veterinary and human findings, and integrates both laboratory and field observations. Additionally, each element is assigned a weight such that all elements are not considered of equal importance within the model.

Annual cost of illness and quality-adjusted life year losses in the United States due to 14 foodborne pathogens

In this article we estimate the annual cost of illness and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss in the United States caused by 14 of the 31 major foodborne pathogens reported on by Scallan et al. (Emerg. Infect. Dis. 17:7-15, 2011), based on their incidence estimates of foodborne illness in the United States. These 14 pathogens account for 95 % of illnesses and hospitalizations and 98 % of deaths due to identifiable pathogens estimated by Scallan et al. We estimate that these 14 pathogens cause $14.0 billion (ranging from $4.4 billion to $33.0 billion) in cost of illness and a loss of 61,000 QALYs (ranging from 19,000 to 145,000 QALYs) per year. Roughly 90 % of this loss is caused by five pathogens: nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica ($3.3 billion; 17,000 QALYs), Campylobacter spp. ($1.7 billion; 13,300 QALYs), Listeria monocytogenes ($2.6 billion; 9,400 QALYs), Toxoplasma gondii ($3 billion; 11,000 QALYs), and norovirus ($2 billion; 5,000 QALYs). A companion article attributes losses estimated in this study to the consumption of specific categories of foods. To arrive at these estimates, for each pathogen we create disease outcome trees that characterize the symptoms, severities, durations, outcomes, and likelihoods of health states associated with that pathogen. We then estimate the cost of illness (medical costs, productivity loss, and valuation of premature mortality) for each pathogen. We also estimate QALY loss for each health state associated with a given pathogen, using the EuroQol 5D scale. Construction of disease outcome trees, outcome-specific cost of illness, and EuroQol 5D scoring are described in greater detail in a second companion article.

Prevalence of zoonotic bacteria in wild and farmed aquatic species and seafood: a scoping study, systematic review, and meta-analysis of published research

Increased reliance on seafood has brought to light concerns regarding food safety, but the information to inform risk assessment or surveillance needs is lacking. A scoping study (ScS) was conducted to characterize published research investigating selected zoonotic bacteria and public health topics in various wild and farmed aquatic species and seafood. This was followed by a systematic review (SR) on selected bacteria (Aeromonas spp., generic Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., and Vibrio spp.) and aquatic species (clams, mussels, oysters, salmon, and shrimp [including prawn]); a meta-analysis (MA) was conducted only at the retail level due to considerable variability among various pathogen/seafood combinations. The ScS revealed the most frequently investigated themes were farm-level prevalence and intervention research for Vibrio spp. and Aeromonas spp. Antimicrobial use (AMU) and the association between AMU and antimicrobial resistance were rarely investigated. The SR indicated a consistent lack of reporting regarding study methodology and results, precluding the use of many studies in and full benefits of MA. MA of Aeromonas, E. coli, and Salmonella prevalence in retail salmon resulted in pooled estimates of 13% (6-27%), 2% (0.1-11%), and 1% (0-5%), respectively. When MA of pathogen/seafood combination resulted in statistically significant heterogeneity (p<0.1), median/range were reported at the region level. The results from our ScS, SR, and MA could be used for better design of future bacteriological surveys of seafood and as inputs for risk assessments or surveillance initiatives in this field.

Hospitalization and deaths for select enteric illnesses and associated sequelae in Canada, 2001-2004

This paper describes morbidity and mortality parameters for Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli, Listeria spp., norovirus infections and their primary associated sequelae [Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), haemolytic uraemic syndrome, reactive arthropathies and Reiter's syndrome]. Data from a period of 4 years were obtained from three national databases to estimate percentage of reported cases hospitalized, mean annual hospitalization incidence rate, frequency of hospitalization by age and sex, and number of deaths. The length of hospital stay, discharge disposition, hospitalization age, and number of diagnoses per case were also extracted and summarized. In addition, we estimated that each year in Canada, there are between 126 and 251 cases of Campylobacter-associated GBS. This study provides morbidity and mortality estimates for the top enteric pathogens in Canada, including their associated sequelae, which can contribute to the quantification of the burden of illness.