ADAPTIVE DYNAMICS IN ALLELE SPACE: EVOLUTION OF GENETIC POLYMORPHISM BY SMALL MUTATIONS IN A HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENT

Ecology, the pace-of-life, epistatic selection and the maintenance of genetic variation in life-history genes

Evolutionary genetics has long struggled with understanding how functional genes under selection remain polymorphic in natural populations. Taking as a starting point that natural selection is ultimately a manifestation of ecological processes, we spotlight an underemphasized and potentially ubiquitous ecological effect that may have fundamental effects on the maintenance of genetic variation. Negative frequency dependency is a well-established emergent property of density dependence in ecology, because the relative profitability of different modes of exploiting or utilizing limiting resources tends to be inversely proportional to their frequency in a population. We suggest that this may often generate negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on major effect loci that affect rate-dependent physiological processes, such as metabolic rate, that are phenotypically manifested as polymorphism in pace-of-life syndromes. When such a locus under NFDS shows stable intermediate frequency polymorphism, this should generate epistatic selection potentially involving large numbers of loci with more minor effects on life-history (LH) traits. When alternative alleles at such loci show sign epistasis with a major effect locus, this associative NFDS will promote the maintenance of polygenic variation in LH genes. We provide examples of the kind of major effect loci that could be involved and suggest empirical avenues that may better inform us on the importance and reach of this process.

The evolution of manipulative cheating

A social cheat is typically assumed to be an individual that does not perform a cooperative behaviour, or performs less of it, but can still exploit the cooperative behaviour of others. However, empirical data suggests that cheating can be more subtle, involving evolutionary arms races over the ability to both exploit and resist exploitation. These complications have not been captured by evolutionary theory, which lags behind empirical studies in this area. We bridge this gap with a mixture of game-theoretical models and individual-based simulations, examining what conditions favour more elaborate patterns of cheating. We found that as well as adjusting their own behaviour, individuals can be selected to manipulate the behaviour of others, which we term 'manipulative cheating'. Further, we found that manipulative cheating can lead to dynamic oscillations (arms races), between selfishness, manipulation, and suppression of manipulation. Our results can help explain both variation in the level of cheating, and genetic variation in the extent to which individuals can be exploited by cheats.

On the importance of evolving phenotype distributions on evolutionary diversification

Evolutionary branching occurs when a population with a unimodal phenotype distribution diversifies into a multimodally distributed population consisting of two or more strains. Branching results from frequency-dependent selection, which is caused by interactions between individuals. For example, a population performing a social task may diversify into a cooperator strain and a defector strain. Branching can also occur in multi-dimensional phenotype spaces, such as when two tasks are performed simultaneously. In such cases, the strains may diverge in different directions: possible outcomes include division of labor (with each population performing one of the tasks) or the diversification into a strain that performs both tasks and another that performs neither. Here we show that the shape of the population's phenotypic distribution plays a role in determining the direction of branching. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the distribution is, in turn, contingent on the direction of approach to the evolutionary branching point. This results in a distribution-selection feedback that is not captured in analytical models of evolutionary branching, which assume monomorphic populations. Finally, we show that this feedback can influence long-term evolutionary dynamics and promote the evolution of division of labor.

The evolution and fate of diversity under hard and soft selection

How genetic variation arises and persists over evolutionary time despite the depleting effects of natural selection remains a long-standing question. Here, we investigate the impacts of two extreme forms of population regulation-at the level of the total, mixed population (hard selection) and at the level of local, spatially distinct patches (soft selection)-on the emergence and fate of diversity under strong divergent selection. We find that while the form of population regulation has little effect on rates of diversification, it can modulate the long-term fate of genetic variation, diversity being more readily maintained under soft selection compared to hard selection. The mechanism responsible for coexistence is negative frequency-dependent selection which, while present initially under both forms of population regulation, persists over the long-term only under soft selection. Importantly, coexistence is robust to continued evolution of niche specialist types under soft selection but not hard selection. These results suggest that soft selection could be a general mechanism for the maintenance of ecological diversity over evolutionary time scales.

The target of selection matters: An established resistance-development-time negative genetic trade-off is not found when selecting on development time

Trade-offs are fundamental to evolutionary outcomes and play a central role in eco-evolutionary theory. They are often examined by experimentally selecting on one life-history trait and looking for negative correlations in other traits. For example, populations of the moth Plodia interpunctella selected to resist viral infection show a life-history cost with longer development times. However, we rarely examine whether the detection of such negative genetic correlations depends on the trait on which we select. Here, we examine a well-characterized negative genotypic trade-off between development time and resistance to viral infection in the moth Plodia interpunctella and test whether selection on a phenotype known to be a cost of resistance (longer development time) leads to the predicted correlated increase in resistance. If there is tight pleiotropic relationship between genes that determine development time and resistance underpinning this trade-off, we might expect increased resistance when we select on longer development time. However, we show that selecting for longer development time in this system selects for reduced resistance when compared to selection for shorter development time. This shows how phenotypes typically characterized by a trade-off can deviate from that trade-off relationship, and suggests little genetic linkage between the genes governing viral resistance and those that determine response to selection on the key life-history trait. Our results are important for both selection strategies in applied biological systems and for evolutionary modelling of host-parasite interactions.

Sympatric ecological divergence with coevolution of niche preference

Reinforcement, the increase of assortative mating driven by selection against unfit hybrids, is conditional on pre-existing divergence. Yet, for ecological divergence to precede the evolution of assortment, strict symmetries between fitnesses in niches must hold, and/or there must be low gene flow between the nascent species. It has thus been argued that conditions favouring sympatric speciation are rarely met in nature. Indeed, we show that under disruptive selection, violating symmetries in niche sizes and increasing strength of the trade-off in selection between the niches quickly leads to loss of genetic variation, instead of evolution of specialists. The region of the parameter space where polymorphism is maintained further narrows with increasing number of loci encoding the diverging trait and the rate of recombination between them. Yet, evolvable assortment and pre-existing assortment both substantially broaden the parameter space within which polymorphism is maintained. Notably, pre-existing niche preference speeds up further increase of assortment, thus facilitating reinforcement in the later phases of speciation. We conclude that in order for sympatric ecological divergence to occur, niche preference must coevolve throughout the divergence process. Even if populations come into secondary contact, having diverged in isolation, niche preference substantially broadens the conditions for coexistence in sympatry and completion of the speciation process.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Towards the completion of speciation: the evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers'.

Evolutionary branching in distorted trait spaces

Biological communities are thought to have been evolving in trait spaces that are not only multi-dimensional, but also distorted in a sense that mutational covariance matrices among traits depend on the parental phenotypes of mutants. Such a distortion may affect diversifying evolution as well as directional evolution. In adaptive dynamics theory, diversifying evolution through ecological interaction is called evolutionary branching. This study analytically develops conditions for evolutionary branching in distorted trait spaces of arbitrary dimensions, by a local nonlinear coordinate transformation so that the mutational covariance matrix becomes locally constant in the neighborhood of a focal point. The developed evolutionary branching conditions can be affected by the distortion when mutational step sizes have significant magnitude difference among directions, i.e., the eigenvalues of the mutational covariance matrix have significant magnitude difference.

How Does Joint Evolution of Consumer Traits Affect Resource Specialization?

Consumers regularly experience trade-offs in their ability to find, handle, and digest different resources. Evolutionary ecologists recognized the significance of this observation for the evolution and maintenance of biological diversity long ago and continue to elaborate on the conditions under which to expect one or several specialists, generalists, or combinations thereof. Existing theory based on a single evolving trait predicts that specialization requires strong trade-offs such that generalists perform relatively poorly, while weak trade-offs favor a single generalist. Here, we show that this simple dichotomy does not hold true under joint evolution of two or more foraging traits. In this case, the boundary between trade-offs resulting in resource specialists and resource generalists is shifted toward weaker trade-off curvatures. In particular, weak trade-offs can result in evolutionary branching, leading to the evolution of two coexisting resource specialists, while the evolution of a single resource generalist requires particularly weak trade-offs. These findings are explained by performance benefits due to epistatic trait interactions enjoyed by phenotypes that are specialized in more than one trait for the same resource.

The Evolution of Immigration Strategies Facilitates Niche Expansion by Divergent Adaptation in a Structured Metapopulation Model

Local adaptation and habitat choice are two key factors that control the distribution and diversification of species. Here we model habitat choice mechanistically as the outcome of dispersal with nonrandom immigration. We consider a structured metapopulation with a continuous distribution of patch types and determine the evolutionarily stable immigration strategy as the function linking patch type to the probability of settling in the patch on encounter. We uncover a novel mechanism whereby coexisting strains that only slightly differ in their local adaptation trait can evolve substantially different immigration strategies. In turn, different habitat use selects for divergent adaptations in the two strains. We propose that the joint evolution of immigration and local adaptation can facilitate diversification and discuss our results in the light of niche conservatism versus niche expansion.

Evolutionary Hysteresis and Ratchets in the Evolution of Periodical Cicadas

It has been previously hypothesized that the perfectly synchronized mass emergence of periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) evolved as a result of a switch from size-based to age-based emergence. In the former case, cicada nymphs emerge immediately (at the first opportunity) on reaching maturity, whereas in the latter case, nymphs wait in order to emerge at a specific age. Here we use an individual-based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and to study the evolution of periodicity. We find that if age-based emergence evolves in a constant abiotic environment, it typically results in a population that is protoperiodic, and synchronous emergence of the whole population is not achieved. However, perfect periodicity and synchronous emergence can be attained, if the abiotic environment changes back and forth between favorable and unfavorable conditions (hysteresis). Furthermore, once age-based emergence evolves, generally it can only be invaded by other age-based emergence strategies with longer cycle lengths (evolutionary ratchet). Together, these mechanisms promote the evolution of long periodic life cycles and synchronous emergence in the Magicicada. We discuss how our results connect to previous theories and recent phylogenetic studies on Magicicada evolution.

Variability in life-history switch points across and within populations explained by Adaptive Dynamics

Understanding the factors that shape the timing of life-history switch points (SPs; e.g. hatching, metamorphosis and maturation) is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology. Previous studies examining this question from a fitness optimization perspective have advanced our understanding of why the timing of life-history transitions may vary across populations and environments. However, in nature we also often observe variability among individuals within populations. Optimization theory, which typically predicts a single optimal SP under physiological and environmental constraints for a given environment, cannot explain this variability. Here, we re-examine the evolution of a single life-history SP between juvenile and adult stages from an Adaptive Dynamics (AD) perspective, which explicitly considers the feedback between the dynamics of population and the evolution of life-history strategy. The AD model, although simple in structure, exhibits a diverse range of evolutionary scenarios depending upon demographic and environmental conditions, including the loss of the juvenile stage, a single optimal SP, alternative optimal SPs depending on the initial phenotype, and sympatric coexistence of two SP phenotypes under disruptive selection. Such predictions are consistent with previous optimization approaches in predicting life-history SP variability across environments and between populations, and in addition they also explain within-population variability by sympatric disruptive selection. Thus, our model can be used as a theoretical tool for understanding life-history variability across environments and, especially, within species in the same environment.

Evolutionarily stable communities: a framework for understanding the role of trait evolution in the maintenance of diversity

Biological diversity depends on the interplay between evolutionary diversification and ecological mechanisms allowing species to coexist. Current research increasingly integrates ecology and evolution over a range of timescales, but our common conceptual framework for understanding species coexistence requires better incorporation of evolutionary processes. Here, we focus on the idea of evolutionarily stable communities (ESCs), which are theoretical endpoints of evolution in a community context. We use ESCs as a unifying framework to highlight some important but under-appreciated theoretical results, and we review empirical research relevant to these theoretical predictions. We explain how, in addition to generating diversity, evolution can also limit diversity by reducing the effectiveness of coexistence mechanisms. The coevolving traits of competing species may either diverge or converge, depending on whether the number of species in the community is low (undersaturated) or high (oversaturated) relative to the ESC. Competition in oversaturated communities can lead to extinction or neutrally coexisting, ecologically equivalent species. It is critical to consider trait evolution when investigating fundamental ecological questions like the strength of different coexistence mechanisms, the feasibility of ecologically equivalent species, and the interpretation of different patterns of trait dispersion.

Relative costs and benefits of alternative reproductive phenotypes at different temperatures - genotype-by-environment interactions in a sexually selected trait

Background

The maintenance of considerable genetic variation in sexually selected traits (SSTs) is puzzling given directional selection expected to act on these traits. A possible explanation is the existence of a genotype-by-environment (GxE) interaction for fitness, by which elaborate SSTs are favored in some environments but selected against in others. In the current study, we look for such interactions for fitness-related traits in the bulb mite, a male-dimorphic species with discontinuous expression of a heritable SST in the form of enlarged legs that are used as weapons.

Results

We show that evolution at 18 °C resulted in populations with a higher prevalence of this SST compared to evolution at 24 °C. We further demonstrate that temperature modified male reproductive success in a way that was consistent with these changes. There was a genotype-by-environment interaction for reproductive success – at 18 °C the relative reproductive success of armored males competing with unarmored ones was higher than at the moderate temperature of 24 °C. However, male morph did not have interactive effects with temperature with respect to other life history traits (development time and longevity).

Conclusions

A male genotype that is associated with the expression of a SST interacted with temperature in determining male reproductive success. This interaction caused an elaborate SST to evolve in different directions (more or less prevalent) depending on the thermal environment. The implication of this finding is that seasonal temperature fluctuations have the potential to maintain male polymorphism within populations. Furthermore, spatial heterogeneity in thermal conditions may cause differences among populations in SST selection. This could potentially cause selection against male immigrants from populations in different environments and thus strengthen barriers to gene flow.

The recovery of a recessive allele in a Mendelian diploid model

We study the large population limit of a stochastic individual-based model which describes the time evolution of a diploid hermaphroditic population reproducing according to Mendelian rules. Neukirch and Bovier (J Math Biol 75:145-198, 2017) proved that sexual reproduction allows unfit alleles to survive in individuals with mixed genotype much longer than they would in populations reproducing asexually. In the present paper we prove that this indeed opens the possibility that individuals with a pure genotype can reinvade in the population after the appearance of further mutations. We thus expose a rigorous description of a mechanism by which a recessive allele can re-emerge in a population. This can be seen as a statement of genetic robustness exhibited by diploid populations performing sexual reproduction.

Joint evolution of dispersal propensity and site selection in structured metapopulation models

We propose a novel mathematical model for a metapopulation in which dispersal occurs on two levels: juvenile dispersal from the natal site is mandatory but it may take place either locally within the natal patch or globally between patches. Within each patch, individuals live in sites. Each site can be inhabited by at most one individual at a time and it may be of high or low quality. A disperser immigrates into a high-quality site whenever it obtains one, but it immigrates into a low-quality site only with a certain probability that depends on the time within the dispersal season. The vector of these low-quality-site-acceptance probabilities is the site-selection strategy of an individual. We derive a proxy for the invasion fitness in this model and study the joint evolution of long-distance-dispersal propensity and site-selection strategy. We focus on the way different ecological changes affect the evolutionary dynamics and study the interplay between global patch-to-patch dispersal and local site-selection. We show that ecological changes affect site-selection mainly via the severeness of competition for sites, which often leads to effects that may appear counterintuitive. Moreover, the metapopulation structure may result in extremely complex site-selection strategies and even in evolutionary cycles. The propensity for long-distance dispersal is mainly determined by the metapopulation-level ecological factors. It is, however, also strongly affected by the winter-survival of the site-holders within patches, which results in surprising non-monotonous effects in the evolution of site-selection due to interplay with long-distance dispersal. Altogether, our results give new additional support to the recent general conclusion that evolution of site-selection is often dominated by the indirect factors that take place via density-dependence, which means that evolutionary responses can rarely be predicted by intuition.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

Populations can persist in directionally changing environments by evolving. Quantitative genetic theory aims to predict critical rates of environmental change beyond which populations go extinct. Here, we point out that all current predictions effectively assume the same specific fitness function. This function causes selection on the standing genetic variance of quantitative traits to become increasingly strong as mean trait values depart from their optima. Hence, there is no bound on the rate of evolution and persistence is determined by the critical rate of environmental change at which populations cease to grow. We then show that biologically reasonable changes to the underlying fitness function can impose a qualitatively different extinction threshold. In particular, inflection points caused by weakening selection create local extrema in the strength of selection and thus in the rate of evolution. These extrema can produce evolutionary tipping points, where long-run population growth rates drop from positive to negative values without ever crossing zero. Generic early-warning signs of tipping points are found to have little power to detect imminent extinction, and require hard-to-gather data. Furthermore, we show how evolutionary tipping points produce evolutionary hysteresis, creating extinction debts.

The evolution of site-selection strategy during dispersal

We propose a mathematical model that enables the evolutionary analysis of site-selection process of dispersing individuals that encounter sites of high or low quality. Since each site can be inhabited by at most one individual, all dispersers are not able to obtain a high-quality site. We study the evolutionary dynamics of the low-quality-site acceptance as a function of the time during the dispersal season using adaptive dynamics. We show that environmental changes affect the evolutionary dynamics in two ways: directly and indirectly via density-dependent factors. Direct evolutionary effects usually follow intuition, whereas indirect effects are often counter-intuitive and hence difficult to predict without mechanistic modeling. Therefore, the mechanistic derivation of the fitness function, with careful attention on density- and frequency dependence, is essential for predicting the consequences of environmental changes to site selection. For example, increasing fecundity in high-quality sites makes them more tempting for dispersers and hence the direct effect of this ecological change delays the acceptance of low-quality sites. However, increasing fecundity in high-quality sites also increases the population size, which makes the competition for sites more severe and thus, as an indirect effect, forces evolution to favor less picky individuals. Our results indicate that the indirect effects often dominate the intuitive effects, which emphasizes the need for mechanistic models of the immigration process.

Survival of a recessive allele in a Mendelian diploid model

In this paper we analyse the genetic evolution of a diploid hermaphroditic population, which is modelled by a three-type nonlinear birth-and-death process with competition and Mendelian reproduction. In a recent paper, Collet et al. (J Math Biol 67(3):569-607, 2013) have shown that, on the mutation time-scale, the process converges to the Trait-Substitution Sequence of adaptive dynamics, stepping from one homozygotic state to another with higher fitness. We prove that, under the assumption that a dominant allele is also the fittest one, the recessive allele survives for a time of order at least [Formula: see text], where K is the size of the population and [Formula: see text].

The transition from evolutionary stability to branching: A catastrophic evolutionary shift

Evolutionary branching—resident-mutant coexistence under disruptive selection—is one of the main contributions of Adaptive Dynamics (AD), the mathematical framework introduced by S.A.H. Geritz, J.A.J. Metz, and coauthors to model the long-term evolution of coevolving multi-species communities. It has been shown to be the basic mechanism for sympatric and parapatric speciation, despite the essential asexual nature of AD. After 20 years from its introduction, we unfold the transition from evolutionary stability (ESS) to branching, along with gradual change in environmental, control, or exploitation parameters. The transition is a catastrophic evolutionary shift, the branching dynamics driving the system to a nonlocal evolutionary attractor that is viable before the transition, but unreachable from the ESS. Weak evolutionary stability hence qualifies as an early-warning signal for branching and a testable measure of the community’s resilience against biodiversity. We clarify a controversial theoretical question about the smoothness of the mutant invasion fitness at incipient branching. While a supposed nonsmoothness at third order long prevented the analysis of the ESS-branching transition, we argue that smoothness is generally expected and derive a local canonical model in terms of the geometry of the invasion fitness before branching. Any generic AD model undergoing the transition qualitatively behaves like our canonical model.

A Paradox of Genetic Variance in Epigamic Traits: Beyond "Good Genes" View of Sexual Selection

Maintenance of genetic variance in secondary sexual traits, including bizarre ornaments and elaborated courtship displays, is a central problem of sexual selection theory. Despite theoretical arguments predicting that strong sexual selection leads to a depletion of additive genetic variance, traits associated with mating success show relatively high heritability. Here we argue that because of trade-offs associated with the production of costly epigamic traits, sexual selection is likely to lead to an increase, rather than a depletion, of genetic variance in those traits. Such trade-offs can also be expected to contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation in ecologically relevant traits with important implications for evolutionary processes, e.g. adaptation to novel environments or ecological speciation. However, if trade-offs are an important source of genetic variation in sexual traits, the magnitude of genetic variation may have little relevance for the possible genetic benefits of mate choice.

Evolutionary branching under slow directional evolution

Evolutionary branching is the process by which ecological interactions induce evolutionary diversification. In asexual populations with sufficiently rare mutations, evolutionary branching occurs through trait-substitution sequences caused by the sequential invasion of successful mutants. A necessary and sufficient condition for evolutionary branching of univariate traits is the existence of a convergence stable trait value at which selection is locally disruptive. Real populations, however, undergo simultaneous evolution in multiple traits. Here we extend conditions for evolutionary branching to bivariate trait spaces in which the response to disruptive selection on one trait can be suppressed by directional selection on another trait. To obtain analytical results, we study trait-substitution sequences formed by invasions that possess maximum likelihood. By deriving a sufficient condition for evolutionary branching of bivariate traits along such maximum-likelihood-invasion paths (MLIPs), we demonstrate the existence of a threshold ratio specifying how much disruptive selection in one trait direction is needed to overcome the obstruction of evolutionary branching caused by directional selection in the other trait direction. Generalizing this finding, we show that evolutionary branching of bivariate traits can occur along evolutionary-branching lines on which residual directional selection is sufficiently weak. We then present numerical analyses showing that our generalized condition for evolutionary branching is a good indicator of branching likelihood even when trait-substitution sequences do not follow MLIPs and when mutations are not rare. Finally, we extend the derived conditions for evolutionary branching to multivariate trait spaces.

Evolutionary branching in complex landscapes

Divergent adaptation to different environments can promote speciation, and it is thus important to consider spatial structure in models of speciation. Earlier theoretical work, however, has been limited to particularly simple types of spatial structure (linear environmental gradients and spatially discrete metapopulations), leaving unaddressed the effects of more realistic patterns of landscape heterogeneity, such as nonlinear gradients and spatially continuous patchiness. To elucidate the consequences of such complex landscapes, we adapt an established spatially explicit individual-based model of evolutionary branching. We show that branching is most probable at intermediate levels of various types of heterogeneity and that different types of heterogeneity have, to some extent, additive effects in promoting branching. In contrast to such additivity, we find a novel refugium effect in which refugia in hostile environments provide opportunities for colonization, thus increasing the probability of branching in patchy landscapes. Effects of patchiness depend on the scale of patches relative to dispersal. Providing a needed connection to empirical research on biodiversity and conservation policy, we introduce empirically accessible spatial environmental metrics that quantitatively predict a landscape's branching propensity.

Biased sex-ratio and sex-biased heterozygote disadvantage affect the maintenance of a genetic polymorphism and the properties of hybrid zones

The evolution of biodiversity is a major issue of modern biology, and it is becoming increasingly topical as the ongoing erosion of diversity puts serious threats on human well-being. An elementary mechanism that allows maintaining diversity is the interplay between dispersal and heterozygote selective disadvantage, which can lead to self-sustainable spatial genetic structures and is central to the stability of hybrid zones. Theoretical studies supporting the importance of this mechanism assume a balanced sex-ratio and a heterozygote disadvantage equally affecting both sexes, despite the multiplicity of empirical evidence that (i) adult sex-ratio is usually biased towards either male or female and that (ii) heterozygote disadvantage often affects a single sex. We expanded the existing theory by weighting the strength of selection against heterozygote according to the biased in sex-ratio and in heterozygote disadvantage. The range of conditions allowing for the maintenance of polymorphism can then either double or vanish. We discuss the implications of such finding for birds, mammals and insects diversity. Finally, we provide simple analytical predictions about the effect of those biased on the width and speed of hybrid zones and on the time for the spread of beneficial mutations through such zones.

Anthropogenically induced adaptation to invade (AIAI): contemporary adaptation to human-altered habitats within the native range can promote invasions

Adaptive evolution is currently accepted as playing a significant role in biological invasions. Adaptations relevant to invasions are typically thought to occur either recently within the introduced range, as an evolutionary response to novel selection regimes, or within the native range, because of long-term adaptation to the local environment. We propose that recent adaptation within the native range, in particular adaptations to human-altered habitat, could also contribute to the evolution of invasive populations. Populations adapted to human-altered habitats in the native range are likely to increase in abundance within areas frequented by humans and associated with human transport mechanisms, thus enhancing the likelihood of transport to a novel range. Given that habitats are altered by humans in similar ways worldwide, as evidenced by global environmental homogenization, propagules from populations adapted to human-altered habitats in the native range should perform well within similarly human-altered habitats in the novel range. We label this scenario 'Anthropogenically Induced Adaptation to Invade'. We illustrate how it differs from other evolutionary processes that may occur during invasions, and how it can help explain accelerating rates of invasions.

Live where you thrive: joint evolution of habitat choice and local adaptation facilitates specialization and promotes diversity

We derive a comprehensive overview of specialization evolution based on analytical results and numerical illustrations. We study the separate and joint evolution of two critical facets of specialization-local adaptation and habitat choice-under different life cycles, modes of density regulation, variance-covariance structures, and trade-off strengths. A particular feature of our analysis is the investigation of arbitrary trade-off functions. We find that local-adaptation evolution qualitatively changes the outcome of habitat-choice evolution under a wide range of conditions. In addition, habitat-choice evolution qualitatively and invariably changes the outcomes of local-adaptation evolution whenever trade-offs are weak. Even weak trade-offs, which favor generalists when habitat choice is fixed, select for specialists once local adaptation and habitat choice are both allowed to evolve. Unless trapped by maladaptive genetic constraints, joint evolution of local adaptation and habitat choice in the models analyzed here thus always leads to specialists, independent of life cycle, density regulation, and trade-off strength, thus raising the bar for evolutionarily sound explanations of generalism. Whether a single specialist or two specialists evolve depends on the life cycle and the mode of density regulation. Finally, we explain why the gradual evolutionary emergence of coexisting specialists requires more restrictive conditions than does their evolutionarily stable maintenance.

Fluctuating population dynamics promotes the evolution of phenotypic plasticity

Theoretical and empirical studies are showing evidence in support of evolutionary branching and sympatric speciation due to frequency-dependent competition. However, phenotypic diversification due to underlying genetic diversification is only one possible evolutionary response to disruptive selection. Another potentially general response is phenotypic diversification in the form of phenotypic plasticity. It has been suggested that genetic variation is favored in stable environments, whereas phenotypic plasticity is favored in unstable and fluctuating environments. We investigate the "competition" between the processes of evolutionary branching and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in a predator-prey model that allows both processes to occur. In this model, environmental fluctuations can be caused by complicated population dynamics. We found that the evolution of phenotypic plasticity was generally more likely than evolutionary branching when the ecological dynamics exhibited pronounced predator-prey cycles, whereas the opposite was true when the ecological dynamics was more stable. At intermediate levels of density cycling, trimorphisms with two specialist branches and a phenotypically plastic generalist branch sometimes occurred. Our theoretical results suggest that ecological dynamics and evolutionary dynamics can often be tightly linked and that an explicit consideration of population dynamics may be essential to explain the evolutionary dynamics of diversification in natural populations.

Species invasion history influences community evolution in a tri-trophic food web model

Background

Recent experimental studies have demonstrated the importance of invasion history for evolutionary formation of community. However, only few theoretical studies on community evolution have focused on such views.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We used a tri-trophic food web model to analyze the coevolutionary effects of ecological invasions by a mutant and by a predator and/or resource species of a native consumer species community and found that ecological invasions can lead to various evolutionary histories. The invasion of a predator makes multiple evolutionary community histories possible, and the evolutionary history followed can determine both the invasion success of the predator into the native community and the fate of the community. A slight difference in the timing of an ecological invasion can lead to a greatly different fate. In addition, even greatly different community histories can converge as a result of environmental changes such as a predator trait shift or a productivity change. Furthermore, the changes to the evolutionary history may be irreversible.

Conclusions and Significance

Our modeling results suggest that the timing of ecological invasion of a species into a focal community can largely change the evolutionary consequences of the community. Our approach based on adaptive dynamics will be a useful tool to understand the effect of invasion history on evolutionary formation of community.

Evolution of predator and prey movement into sink habitats

Mathematical models of predator-prey interactions in a patchy landscape are used to explore the evolution of dispersal into sink habitats. When evolution proceeds at a single trophic level (i.e., either prey or predator disperses), three evolutionary outcomes are observed. If predator-prey dynamics are stable in source habitats, then there is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) corresponding to sedentary phenotypes residing in source habitats. If predator-prey dynamics are sufficiently unstable, then either an ESS corresponding to dispersive phenotypes or an evolutionarily stable coalition (ESC) between dispersive and sedentary phenotypes emerges. Dispersive phenotypes playing an ESS persist despite exhibiting, on average, a negative per capita growth rate in all habitats. ESCs occur if dispersal into sink habitats can stabilize the predator-prey interactions. When evolution proceeds at both trophic levels, any combination of monomorphic or dimorphic phenotypes at one or both trophic levels is observed. Coevolution is largely top-down driven. At low predator mortality rates in sink habitats, evolution of predator movement into sink habitats forestalls evolution of prey movement into sink habitats. Only at intermediate mortality rates is there selection for predator and prey movement. Our results also illustrate an evolutionary paradox of enrichment, in which enriching source habitats can reduce phenotypic diversity.

Maintenance of host variation in tolerance to pathogens and parasites

Tolerance and resistance provide hosts with two distinct defense strategies against parasitism. In resistance the hosts "fight" the parasite directly, whereas in tolerance the hosts fight the disease by ameliorating the damage that infection causes. There is increasing recognition that the two mechanisms may exhibit very different evolutionary behaviors. Although empirical work has often noted considerable variance in tolerance within hosts, theory has predicted the fixation of tolerance due to positive frequency dependence through a feedback with disease prevalence. Here we reconcile these findings through a series of dynamic game theoretical models. We emphasize that there is a crucial distinction between tolerance to the effects of disease-induced mortality and tolerance to the effect of the disease-induced reductions in fecundity. Only mortality tolerance has a positive effect on parasite fitness, whereas sterility tolerance is neutral and may therefore result in polymorphisms. The nature of the costs to defense and their relationship to trade-offs between resistance and tolerance are crucial in determining the likelihood of variation, whereas the co-evolution of the parasite will not affect diversity. Our findings stress that it is important to measure the effects of different mechanisms on characteristics that affect the epidemiology of the parasite to completely understand the evolutionary dynamics of defense.

Evolution of specialization in resource utilization in structured metapopulations

We study the evolution of resource utilization in a structured discrete-time metapopulation model with an infinite number of patches, prone to local catastrophes. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources available in different amounts in each patch. We analyse how the evolution of specialization in the utilization of the resources is affected by different ecological factors: migration, local growth, local catastrophes, forms of the trade-off and distribution of the resources in the patches. Our modelling approach offers a natural way to include more than two patch types into the models. This has not been usually possible in the previous spatially heterogeneous models focusing on the evolution of specialization.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 2. Palms on an oceanic island

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of palms on the Lord Howe Island is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this palms system. Overall, our results show that relatively rapid (<50,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche, and sympatric or parapatric speciation via local adaptation and divergence in flowering periods are theoretically plausible if (i) the number of loci controlling the ecological and flowering period traits is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; and (iii) an acceleration of flowering by a direct environmental effect associated with the new ecological niche is present. We discuss patterns and time-scales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically in order to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

A new mechanism for recurrent adaptive radiations

Models of adaptive radiation through intraspecific competition have attracted mounting attention. Here we show how extending such models in a simple manner, by including a quantitative trait under weak directional selection, naturally leads to rich macroevolutionary patterns involving recurrent adaptive radiations and extinctions. Extensive tests demonstrate the robustness of this finding to a wide range of variations in model assumptions. In particular, recurrent adaptive radiations and extinctions readily unfold both for asexual and for sexual populations. Since the mechanisms driving the investigated processes of endogenous diversification result from generic geometric features of the underlying fitness landscapes--frequency-dependent disruptive selection in one trait and weak directional selection in another--the reported phenomena can be expected to occur in a wide variety of eco-evolutionary settings.