Improved patient survival after acute variceal bleeding: a multicenter, cohort study

Relationship between platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and early rebleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation: a bicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is the primary treatment for esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). Postoperative rebleeding is a complication of EVL, contributing to over 20% of bleeding-related deaths. This study aims to examine the association between platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and rebleeding within 6 weeks after EVL in patients with LC.

METHODS

The study included 145 eligible patients who underwent their first EVL procedure at Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College between January 2016 and August 2022 (YJS cohort). An external validation cohort comprising 338 eligible patients from NO.2 People's Hospital of Fuyang City (FY cohort) between July 2018 and August 2022 was also utilized.

RESULTS

In the YJS cohort, Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that high PLR is independently associated with early rebleeding after EVL. The restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrated that the risk of rebleeding increases with rising PLR, stabilizing at PLR values greater than 150. Similar findings were validated in the FY cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results have the potential to aid in the identification of high-risk patients for early rebleeding after EVL, thereby enabling improved clinical management and outcomes for these individuals.

Predicting Portal Pressure Gradient in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Non-invasive Deep Learning Model

BACKGROUND

A high portal pressure gradient (PPG) is associated with an increased risk of failure to control esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage and refractory ascites in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, direct measurement of PPG is invasive, limiting its routine use in clinical practice. Consequently, there is an urgent need for non-invasive techniques to assess PPG.

AIM

To develop and validate a deep learning model that predicts PPG values for patients with decompensated cirrhosis and identifies those with high-risk portal hypertension (HRPH), who may benefit from early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) intervention.

METHODS

Data of 520 decompensated cirrhosis patients who underwent TIPS between June 2014 and December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Laboratory and imaging parameters were used to develop an artificial neural network model for predicting PPG, with feature selection via recursive feature elimination for comparison experiments. The best performing model was tested by external validation.

RESULTS

After excluding 92 patients, 428 were included in the final analysis. A series of comparison experiments demonstrated that a three-parameter (3P) model, which includes the international normalized ratio, portal vein diameter, and white blood cell count, achieved the highest accuracy of 87.5%. In two distinct external datasets, the model attained accuracy rates of 85.40% and 90.80%, respectively. It also showed notable ability to distinguish HRPH with an AUROC of 0.842 in external validation.

CONCLUSION

The developed 3P model could predict PPG values for decompensated cirrhosis patients and could effectively distinguish HRPH.

[When should a liver disease patient be admitted to the intensive care unit?]

Liver diseases are a significant global cause of morbidity and mortality. Liver cirrhosis can result in severe complications such as bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and infections. Implementing a clear strategy for intensive care unit (ICU) admission management improves patient outcomes. Hemodynamically significant esophageal/gastric variceal bleeding (E/GVB) and grade 4 HE, when accompanied by the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), are definitive indications for ICU admission. E/GVB, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), and infections with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) require close and stringent critical assessment. Patients with severe hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) or respiratory failure have increased baseline mortality and most likely benefit from early ICU treatment. Rapid identification of sepsis in patients with liver cirrhosis is a crucial criterion for ICU admission. Prioritizing cases based on mortality risk and clinical urgency enables efficient resource utilization and optimizes patient management. In addition, "Liver Units" provide an intermediate care (IMC) level for patients with liver diseases who require close monitoring but do not need immediate intensive care.

Comparison of gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with and without liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in patients has been well-characterized in liver cirrhosis but studies on lower GIB are limited. The clinical characteristics, management and outcomes in patients with and without liver cirrhosis was compared to determine the overall features of GIB in patients with liver cirrhosis compared with non-cirrhotics.

METHODS

A retrospective study on cirrhotics hospitalized for GIB 2010-2021, matched with control group of non-cirrhotics (1:4) for upper vs. lower GIB. Patients with overt bleeding leading to hospitalization were included.

RESULTS

Overall, 396 patients had cirrhosis, 267 (67%) men, median age 62, alcoholic etiology 177/396 (45%), median MELD 12 (range 6-32). Overall 102 cirrhotics had GIB, matched with 391 non-cirrhotics. Overall 87 (85%) cirrhotic patients had upper and 15% lower GIB. Compared to non-cirrhotics, the cause of GIB was more commonly acute variceal bleeding (AVB) (42% vs. 1%), hemorrhoids 40% vs. 6% (p = 0.002), less commonly gastric ulcer 13% vs. 31% (p < 0.001), duodenal ulcer 9% vs. 29% (p < 0.001), 5% of cirrhotics used NSAIDs vs. 26% of controls (p < 0.001). Rebleeding occurred in 14% of cirrhotics vs. 3% in controls (p < 0.001). Only one cirrhotic patient (1%) died from GIB vs. 0.8% of controls within 45 days. Overall mortality 45 days after hospitalization was 10% in cirrhotics vs. 5% in controls (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Bleeding from gastric and duodenal ulcers were less common in cirrhotics than in controls. Bleeding from hemorrhoids was more common in cirrhotics. Mortality due to GIB was low in both groups but overall mortality was significantly higher in cirrhotics.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient: Measurement and Pitfalls

Measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) effectively mirrors the severity of portal hypertension (PH) and offers valuable insights into prognosis of liver disease, including the risk of decompensation and mortality. Additionally, HVPG offers crucial information about treatment response to nonselective beta-blockers and other medications, with its utility demonstrated in clinical trials in patients with PH. Despite the widespread dissemination and validation of noninvasive tests, HVPG still holds a significant role in hepatology. Physicians treating patients with liver diseases should comprehend the HVPG measurement procedure, its applications, and how to interpret the results and potential pitfalls.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF MORBIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH ESOPHAGEAL VARICEAL BLEEDING IN CHILDREN WITH PORTAL HYPERTENSION

•Most data on the natural history of portal hypertension come from studies in adults. •The morbidity rate of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in children with portal hypertension tend to be underestimated. •This study showed the relevance of morbidity rates after variceal hemorrhage in pediatric patients, especially those with cirrhosis. •Patients with hemodynamic instability requiring blood transfusion or expansion on admission are at increased risk of complications secondary to upper gastrointestinal bleeding and should be closely monitored. Background - Most data on the natural history of portal hypertension come from studies in adults. The morbidity rate of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in children with portal hypertension has not been systematically characterized. Objective - To describe the morbidity and mortality of UGIB in pediatric patients with portal hypertension and identify predictive factors for the occurrence of its main complications. Methods - This retrospective study included pediatric patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension or with extrahepatic portal vein obstruction (EHPVO). Mortality and UGIB complications within a period of up to 6 weeks of the bleeding were investigated. To determine the predictive factors of morbidity, a multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression; all results were considered significant at P<0.05. Results - A total of 86 patients (51.2% with EHPVO and 48.8% with cirrhosis) had 174 bleeding events. Ascites was the most common complication (43.1% of all cases), being more prevalent in patients with cirrhosis (P<0.001). Cirrhosis was a predictor of the occurrence of any morbidity (OR 20.3). The need for blood transfusion was predictor of at least one complication (OR 5.8), ascites (OR 7.2) and infections (OR 3.8) in the general group and at least one complication (OR 11.3) and ascites (OR 5.8) in cirrhotic patients. The need for expansion was a predictor of any morbidity (OR 4.6) and infections (OR 3.9) in the general group, in addition to being predictor of infection in cirrhotic patients (OR 5.4). There were no deaths from UGIB in the six weeks post-bleeding. Conclusion - The study showed the relevance of morbidity after UGIB in pediatric patients with portal hypertension, especially in those with cirrhosis. The patients with hemodynamic instability requiring blood transfusion or expansion on admission are at increased risk of complications related to upper gastrointestinal bleeding and should be closely monitored.

Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed in Liver Cirrhosis; Less May Be More

INTRODUCTION

Administration of antibiotics in patients with cirrhosis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding has been shown to improve outcomes. Little is known regarding optimum duration of prophylactic antibiotics. Seven days of antibiotics are generally recommended but very few studies have compared antibiotic duration to clinical outcomes in current available scientific literature. The goal of our study was to study the effect of shorter antibiotic duration on patient outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis presenting with upper GI bleeding at our institute from 2010 to 2018. Patients were divided into three cohorts based on duration of antibiotic administration for prophylaxis: 1-3 days of antibiotics, 4-6 days of antibiotics and 7 days or more of antibiotics. Rates of infection diagnosis within 30 days, rebleeding, and mortality were compared between the three groups with Chi square, Fisher Exact and Kruskall-Wallace tests. Multivariable analysis was conducted to evaluate independent risk factors for infection.

RESULTS

Medical charts of 980 patients with cirrhosis and upper GI bleeding during the study period were reviewed. A total of 303 with upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included in the final sample, of these 243 patients received antibiotics for prophylaxis and were included for analysis. Seventy-seven patients received antibiotic therapy for 3 days or less, 69 patients for 4-6 days, and 97 patients longer than 6 days. The three groups were well matched in demographic and clinical variables. Twenty-seven patients developed infections within 30 days of bleeding. MELD-Na score at presentation and presence of ascites were associated with infection within 30 days. Rates of infection were not statistically different between the three antibiotic groups (p = 0.78). In the thirty days following the GI bleed, pneumonia was the most diagnosed infection (eleven patients) followed by urinary tract infections (eight patients). Four patients developed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and three were diagnosed with bacteremia. There was no difference in time to infection (Kruskall Wallace test p = 0.75), early re-bleeding (p = 0.81), late re-bleeding (p = 0.37) and in-hospital mortality (p = 0.94) in the three groups. Six patients in the cohort developed C. Difficile infection; no patient in the short antibiotic group developed C. Difficile infection.

CONCLUSION

Short course of antibiotics for prophylaxis (3 days) appears safe and adequate for prophylaxis in patients with cirrhosis with upper gastrointestinal bleeding if there is no active infection.

Prophylactic antibiotics on patients with cirrhosis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of different prophylactic antibiotic treatments for cirrhosis patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to investigate whether prophylactic antibiotics are equally beneficial to reducing the risk of adverse outcomes in A/B with low Child-Pugh scores.

METHODS

Relevant studies were searched via PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Internet (CNKI), Wanfang, and VIP databases up to July 16, 2021. The heterogeneity test was conducted for each outcome measuring by I2 statistics. Subgroup analysis was performed regarding antibiotic types. Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate prophylactic antibiotics on the risk of adverse outcomes in cirrhosis patients with UGIB.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies involving 12,440 participants fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Antibiotic prophylaxis was associated with a reduced overall mortality (RR: 0.691, 95%CI: 0.518 to 0.923), mortality due to bacterial infections (RR: 0.329, 95%CI: 0.144 to 0.754), bacterial infections (RR: 0.389, 95%CI: 0.340 to 0.444), rebleeding (RR: 0.577, 95%CI: 0.433 to 0.767) and length of hospitalization [weighted mean difference (WMD): -3.854, 95%CI: -6.165 to -1.543] among patients with UGIB. Nevertheless, prophylactic antibiotics may not benefit to A/B population with low Child-Pugh scores. In our subgroup analysis, quinolone, beta-lactams alone or in combination reduced adverse outcomes in cirrhosis patients with UGIB.

CONCLUSION

Administration of antibiotics was associated with a reduction in mortality, bacterial infections, rebleeding, and length of hospitalization. Quinolone, beta-lactams alone or in combination can be used in cirrhosis patients with UGIB. Nevertheless, targeted efforts are needed to promote the appropriate use of antibiotics among patients with cirrhosis and UGIB.

Impact of Readmission for Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Nationwide Analysis

BACKGROUND

Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) is a common and potentially lethal complication of cirrhosis. Population-based data regarding hospital readmission and other outcomes in VUGIB are limited.

AIM

In a large United States database of patients with VUGIB, we evaluated readmission rates, mortality rates, healthcare resource consumption, and identified predictors of readmission.

METHODS

The 2017 Nationwide Readmission Database using ICD-10 codes was used to identify all adult patients admitted for VUGIB. Primary outcomes were 30- and 90-day readmission rates. Secondary outcomes included mortality, healthcare resource consumption, and predictors of readmission. Multivariate regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In 2017, there were 26,498 patients with VUGIB discharged from their index hospitalization, and 24.7% were readmitted (all-cause) within 30-days and 41.5% within 90-days. Recurrent VUGIB accounted for 26.7% and 28.9% of 30- and 90-day readmissions, respectively. Compared to index admissions, 30-day readmissions were associated with higher mortality (4.3% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.01), increased mean hospital length of stay (5.6 days vs. 4.5 days, p < 0.01), and charges ($65,984 vs. $53,784, p < 0.01), with similar findings in 90-day readmissions. Factors associated with 30-day readmission included end-stage renal disease (HR 1.2, p < 0.05), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.31, p < 0.01), and acute kidney injury (HR 1.14, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Based on a nationwide cohort of hospitalized VUGIB patients, 25% were readmitted within 30-days and 42% within 90-days. Readmission was associated with increased mortality and healthcare consumption compared to the index admission. Additionally, acute and chronic renal injury were predictors of patients at high-risk for readmission.

Characterization of mesenteric and portal hemodynamics using 4D flow MRI: the effects of meals and diurnal variation

PURPOSE

To determine the variability of blood flow measurements using 4D flow MRI in the portal and mesenteric circulations and to characterize the effects of meal ingestion, time of day, and between-day (diurnal) variations on portal and mesenteric hemodynamics.

METHODS

In this IRB-approved and HIPAA-compliant study, 7 healthy and 7 portal hypertension patients imaged. MRI exams were conducted at 3 T using a 32-channel body coil with large volumetric coverage and 1.25-mm isotropic true spatial resolution. Blood flow was quantified (L/min) in the hepatic and splanchnic vasculature. The first MR scan was performed after at least 8 h of fasting. Subsequently, subjects ingested 574 mL EnSure Plus® orally. A second acquisition was started 20 min after the meal ingestion. A third scan was performed before lunch and a fourth acquisition took place 20 min after lunch. A fifth scan was performed around 4 pm. Finally, subjects returned one week later for a repeat morning visit, with identical conditions as the first visit.

RESULTS

In healthy controls significant increase in blood flow was seen in the PV, SMV, SMA, HA, and SCAo in response to breakfast but only the SCAo, SMA, SMV, and PV had a significant response to lunch. In general, patients with cirrhosis showed reduced response to meals compared to that in healthy controls. Additionally, PV flow in patients had the highest value in the afternoon.

CONCLUSION

Effects of meal ingestion, time of day, and between-day variations were characterized using Radial 4D flow MRI in patients with cirrhosis and healthy controls.

Novel technique for continuous pressure monitoring of esophageal balloon in balloon tamponade device for acute variceal bleed

Acute variceal bleeding is a life‐threatening emergency associated with high mortality. Balloon tamponade is required for refractory bleeding to allow stabilization for definitive therapy. Unfortunately, these devices are associated with iatrogenic complications such as esophageal necrosis and perforation. It is imperative to accurately measure the esophageal balloon pressure to limit these complications. We describe a novel technique for both initial and continuous pressure monitoring of the esophageal balloon.

Long-term outcomes of hemostatic therapy for variceal bleeding and the challenge pending in the post-direct-acting antivirals era

Background and study aims

This study evaluated the longterm outcomes of mainly endoscopic hemostatic therapy for gastrointestinal variceal bleeding and of the transition of hemostatic therapy.

Patients and methods

Among 1,163 patients treated for gastrointestinal varices between April 2006 and June 2020, a total of 125 patients who underwent emergency hemostatic therapy were enrolled. Survival rates and secondary evaluation points were analyzed. Additionally, patients were classified into two groups: the previous and latter term. Patients' background, therapeutic method, and treatment results were compared between the groups.

Results

94.4% had cirrhosis. The average Child-Pugh score was 8.90. Successful primary hemostasis rate was 98.4%, and 5.6% died within 2 weeks, all with a Child-Pugh score ≥9. The respective 1- and 5-year survival rates for Child-Pugh grade A/B were 81.3% and 55.4%, while those for Child-Pugh grade C were 58.1% and 17.8%. Child-Pugh grade C or hepatocellular carcinoma was significantly associated with poor prognosis. In total, 21.6% experienced variceal re-bleeding; 62.9% of these cases were triggered by continued alcohol consumption. There was no significant difference in survival between patients with and without variceal re-bleeding and in post-treatment survival between the previous and latter terms. In the latter term, the number of cases caused by continued alcohol consumption significantly increased.

Conclusions

Multidisciplinary treatment and continuation of proper management after hemostatic therapy for variceal bleeding are crucial. Continued alcohol consumption leads to variceal bleeding and re-bleeding; its proper management, including alcohol abstinence, is one of the major challenges left in the post-directacting antivirals era.

COMPARISON OF NON-ENDOSCOPIC SCORES FOR THE PREDICTION OF OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS OF UPPER GASTROINTESTINAL BLEED IN AN EMERGENCY OF A TERTIARY CARE REFERRAL HOSPITAL: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

BACKGROUND

Traditionally peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed but with the changing epidemiology; other etiologies of UGI bleed are emerging. Many scores have been described for predicting outcomes and the need for intervention in UGI bleed but prospective comparison among them is scarce.

OBJECTIVE

This study was planned to determine the etiological pattern of UGI bleed and to compare Glasgow Blatchford score, Pre-Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors of outcome.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study 268 patients of UGI bleed were enrolled and followed up for 8 weeks. Glasgow Blatchford score, Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and MEWS were calculated for each patient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve for each score was compared.

RESULTS

The most common etiology for UGI bleed were gastroesophageal varices 150 (63.55%) followed by peptic ulcer disease 29 (12.28%) and mucosal erosive disease 27 (11.44%). Total 38 (15.26%) patients had re-bleed and 71 (28.5%) patients died. Overall, 126 (47%) patients required blood component transfusion, 25 (9.3%) patients required mechanical ventilation and 2 (0.74%) patients required surgical intervention. Glasgow Blatchford score was the best in predicting the need for transfusion (cut off - 10, AUC-ROC= 0.678). Whereas AIMS65 with a score of ≥2 was best in predicting re-bleed (AUC-ROC=0.626) and mortality (AUC-ROC=0.725).

CONCLUSION

Gastrointestinal bleed was most commonly of variceal origin at our tertiary referral center in Northern India. AIMS65 was the best & simplest score with a score of ≥2 for predicting re-bleed and mortality.

Acute variceal bleeding and out-of-hours endoscopy: Evaluation of an emergency care setting according to Baveno VI guidelines adherence

BACKGROUND

The extent to which patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) receive recommended care is largely unknown.

AIM

to evaluate the adherence of the 4 major Baveno VI recommendations [vasoactive agents, prophylactic antibiotic, esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) within 12 hours, endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL)] as a marker of quality of an emergency model.

METHODS

Retrospective evaluation of AVB admissions to a tertiary centre in which endoscopy was available 24hours-a-day, with a regional out-of-hours service at night (the furthest hospital is 200Km away). Patients were divided in directly admitted or transferred from other centres.

RESULTS

210 AVB patients were included; 101 (48.1%) were directly admitted. The majority of patients were submitted to vasoactive agents (85.7%) and prophylactic antibiotics (79%) before EGD. In 178 patients (84.8%) endoscopy was performed within 12h and EVL was the procedure of choice in 116 (74.8%) (only oesophageal varices). No significant differences were observed between directly admitted and transferred patients in adherence rates. Overall rebleeding rate was 8.6%, in-hospital mortality 11.4% and 6-week mortality 20%.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to quality metrics was high which might have played a vital role for reported outcomes. These results suggest that this model of care, provides accessibility and equity in access to urgent endoscopy.

Development of a machine learning model to predict bleed in esophageal varices in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A proof of concept

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Risk stratification beyond the endoscopic classification of esophageal varices (EVs) to predict first episode of variceal bleeding (VB) is currently limited in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). We aimed to assess if machine learning (ML) could be used for predicting future VB more accurately.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, data from patients of cACLD with EVs, laboratory parameters and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were used to generate an extreme-gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to predict the risk of VB. The performance characteristics of ML and endoscopic classification were compared in internal and external validation cohorts. Bleeding rates were estimated in subgroups identified upon risk stratification with combination of model and endoscopic classification.

RESULTS

Eight hundred twenty-eight patients of cACLD with EVs, predominantly related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (28.6%), alcohol (23.7%) and hepatitis B (23.1%) were included, with 455 (55%) having the high-risk varices. Over a median follow-up of 24 (12-43) months, 163 patients developed VB. The accuracy of machine learning (ML) based model to predict future VB was 98.7 (97.4-99.5)%, 93.7 (88.8-97.2)%, and 85.7 (82.1-90.5)% in derivation (n = 497), internal validation (n = 149), and external validation (n = 182) cohorts, respectively, which was better than endoscopic classification [58.9 (55.5-62.3)%] alone. Patients stratified high risk on both endoscopy and model had 1-year and 3-year bleeding rates of 31-43% and 64-85%, respectively, whereas those stratified as low risk on both had 1-year and 3-year bleeding rates of 0-1.6% and 0-3.4%, respectively. Endoscopic classification and LSM were the major determinants of model's performance.

CONCLUSION

Application of ML model improved the performance of endoscopic stratification to predict VB in patients with cACLD with EVs.

Liver Stiffness Is a Predictor of Rebleeding in Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis: A Real-World Cohort Study

Background: Esophageal vein rebleeding is a life-threatening complication of liver cirrhosis. However, the role of non-invasive methods that were developed to evaluate the severity of chronic liver disease, especially in rebleeding, remains unclear. Aims: To evaluate the performance of liver stiffness and non-invasive fibrosis scores in predicting esophageal vein rebleeding in hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhotic patients. Methods: A prospective analysis of 194 HBV patients between 2017 and 2021 was performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and time-dependent ROC curves were used to assess the power for predicting rebleeding with non-invasive fibrosis score and liver stiffness. Results: During the median follow-up time of 68.28 weeks, 55 patients experienced rebleeding. In the entire cohort, the area under the ROC curve for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) predicting for rebleeding was 0.837, with a cut-off value of 17.79 kPa, and the time-dependent ROC curve also showed stable prediction performance of LSM. The predictive ability of the non-invasive fibrosis score was less than that of LSM, and there were statistical differences. Moreover, patients using non-selective beta-blockers and HBV DNA-negative patients experienced significantly reduced rebleeding. Conclusions: Compared with non-invasive fibrosis scores, LSM can more simply and accurately predict rebleeding events of hepatitis B liver cirrhosis.

Impact of acute kidney injury on mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

Background

The effect of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) using the recently proposed International Club of Ascites (ICA) criteria is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of AKI using the ICA criteria and factors associated with the outcomes in cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included data of cirrhotic patients with AVB from two centers in Korea. The association of the ICA criteria for AKI with 6-week mortality was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

In total, there were 546 episodes of AVB in 390 patients, of which 425 and 121 episodes were due to esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding, respectively. Moreover, 153 patients fulfilled the ICA criteria for AKI, and 64, 30, 39, and 20 patients were diagnosed with stages 1a, 1b, 2, and 3, respectively. Conversely, 97 patients developed AKI within 42 days as per the conventional criteria. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with ICA-AKI than in patients without ICA-AKI; the occurrence of ICA-AKI was an independent factor for predicting the 6-week mortality.

Conclusion

The ICA criteria could help diagnose renal dysfunction earlier, and presence of AKI is a predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01862-x.

Short-course vasoconstrictors are adequate for esophageal variceal bleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) with vasoconstrictors has been recommended for acute esophageal variceal bleeding. However, the optimal duration of vasoconstrictors after EVL is controversial. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to explore the efficacy of short-course vasoconstrictors (≤3 days) versus standard combination (3-5 days). A comprehensive literature review was conducted using the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library databases with subsequent meta-analysis. The primary outcomes were 5-day rebleeding, mortality, and treatment failure rates. A risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval is used for outcome comparison. Nine randomized studies with 838 patients were included. The initial hemostasis (96.8% vs 97.4%, p = 0.919), 5-day rebleeding (11.2% vs 8.3%, RR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.62-1.76), mortality (0 vs 1.3%, RR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.10-2.39), and treatment failure (7.4% vs 5.9%, RR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.48-2.49) were similar in both groups. Subgroup analysis suggested EVL alone had no significant difference of 5-day re-bleeding (15.9% vs 7.1%, RR = 2.25, 95% CI = 0.87-5.77), mortality (0 vs 0.7%, RR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.08-6.03), treatment failure (9.6% vs 6.7%, RR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.54-3.75) compared to standard combination. Clinical heterogeneity was found for the rebleeding rate for the subgroup during sensitivity analysis. EVL with short-course vasoconstrictors is highly efficacious for esophageal variceal bleeding. Further studies are required to determine the genuine need of subsequent vasoconstrictor after successful EVL.

Development and validation of prognostic model to predict mortality among cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: A retrospective study

Background and Aim

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious complication associated with high mortality. The aim of our study was to investigate mortality predictors and to develop a new simplified prognostic model among cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6‐week mortality.

Results

A total of 713 consecutive patients with AVB were enrolled. The 6‐week overall mortality rate was 18%. Multivariate analysis showed that shock, model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) score, high‐risk stigmata of esophageal varices on endoscopic finding, and Glasgow Blatchford score were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model (cutoff value ≥ 4) area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was 0.93 and significantly higher than that of MELD score alone (0.74). Two validation analyses showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently high. The 6‐week rebleeding rate was 25.3%. Multivariate analysis showed that MELD score, Glasgow Blatchford score, history of upper GI bleeding, shock, and alcohol use were independent predictors of rebleeding.

Conclusion

Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6‐week mortality among patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Patients with higher MELD scores should be closely monitored due to the higher probability of 6‐week rebleeding.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in patients treated with a balloon tamponade for variceal hemorrhage without response to high doses of vasoactive drugs: A real-world multicenter retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) and non-TIPS therapy (endoscopy and/or nonselective beta-blockers [NSBB]) in patients with cirrhosis and active variceal hemorrhage who did not respond to high-dose vasoactive drugs and required balloon tamponade for hemostasis.

METHODS

Medical records of cirrhotic patients who did not respond to high-dose vasoactive drugs and required balloon tamponade for hemostasis at five university hospitals in China between January 2011 and December 2018 were reviewed. Treatment outcomes were compared between the TIPS and the non-TIPS groups.

RESULTS

Treatment failure of variceal hemorrhage within 5 days was reported in six patients of the non-TIPS group (N = 70) and none of the TIPS group (N = 66) (P = .028). The TIPS group had a higher 1-year variceal rebleeding-free rate compared with the non-TIPS group (95.5% vs 60.0%, P < .001). One patient treated with TIPS and nine with non-TIPS therapy experienced rebleeding within 5 days and 6 weeks after the intervention (P = .009). The cumulative 1-year survival rate was higher in the TIPS group than in the non-TIPS group (93.9% vs 78.6%, P = .01). The TIPS group had a higher incidence of hepatic encephalopathy within one year compared with the non-TIPS group (18.2% vs 4.3%, P = .026).

CONCLUSION

For patients with cirrhosis and active variceal bleeding who do not respond to high-dose vasoactive agents and require a balloon tamponade for hemostasis, TIPS may be an appropriate treatment choice.

Mortality, Risk Factors and Disparities Associated with Esophageal Variceal Bleeding in Children's Hospitals in the US

OBJECTIVES

To use a large administrative database to determine the mortality, risk factors, and comorbidities of esophageal variceal bleeding in children.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using Pediatric Health Information System data from 50 tertiary children's hospitals in the US. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes (FY 2020 ICD-10 update and revision 10 of ICD-9) from 2004 through 2019 identified children 18 years and younger with variceal bleeding and complications. Univariate analyses used the Student t -test for continuous variables (age) and the χ² test for categorical variables (all others). A mixed-effects linear regression was performed for multiple variables.

RESULTS

There were 1902 patients who had 3399 encounters for esophageal variceal bleeding. The mortality rate for variceal bleeding was 7.3%, increasing to 8.8% by 6 weeks; any mortality during the study was 20.1%. Transfusion was required in 54.7% of encounters, and 42.6% were admitted to the intensive care unit. Variceal bleeding encounters were complicated by peptic ulcer disease (6.9%), bacteremia (11.4%), acute renal failure (5.1%), mechanical ventilation (18%), ascites (21.3%), and peritonitis (3.3%). Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression showed that Black race (OR, 2.59; P < .001) or Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 2.31; P = .001), but not sex, household income, or insurance type, were associated with increased mortality. Bacteremia, peritonitis, mechanical ventilation, acute renal failure, and transfusion were associated with higher mortality (ORs of 2.29, 2.18, 1.93, 6.33, and 1.81, respectively; P < .001, .005, .011, <.001, and .005, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The 6-week mortality rate for variceal bleeding in children is 8.8%. Black or Hispanic children are at higher risk of dying. Serious morbidities associated with variceal hemorrhage impact mortality. These data can inform consideration of prophylactic or therapeutic interventions for children at risk.

Impact of variceal eradication on rebleeding and prognosis in cirrhotic patients undergoing secondary prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic therapy has been widely applied to prevent variceal rebleeding, but data addressing the effect of endoscopic variceal eradication (VE) are lacking. We aimed to clarify the clinical impact of VE and reveal the long-term incidence and mortality of gastrointestinal rebleeding.

METHODS

This prospective study included 228 cirrhotic patients who underwent secondary prophylaxis for variceal bleeding and achieved VE through a systematic procedure we proposed as endoscopic sequential therapy (EST). Rebleeding rates before and after VE were compared and cumulative incidence of rebleeding and mortality were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A logistic regression model and P for trend were used to investigate the optimal time limit for VE.

RESULTS

During a median (interquartile range) follow-up duration of 33.0 (23.0-48.75) months, rebleeding was identified in 28 patients (12.3%) after VE and in 27 patients (11.8%) during endoscopic sessions. The cumulative incidence of rebleeding before and after VE was 8.4% and 1.8% at 6 months, and 14.9% and 4.0% at 1 year respectively (P<0.001). The long-term incidence of all-cause/variceal rebleeding following VE was 10.4%/9.1%, and 31.5%/23.5% at 2 and 5 years respectively. Eleven patients (4.8%) died and the 5-year mortality was 9.3%. VE achieved within 6 months was associated with fewer rebleeding events compared to VE achieved after 6 months (5.5% vs. 20.0%, P=0.002), while logistic regression revealed an overall increasing trend in the odds ratio of rebleeding (vs. patients with VE time ≤6 months) for patients with 6< VE time ≤12 months and VE time >12 months (P for trend <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

VE further reduces rebleeding based on routine endoscopic prophylaxis and improves long-term prognosis. VE within 6 months seems to be the optimal timing and should therefore be advocated.

A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP).

METHODS

This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.

Can We Add the History of the Nonoperative Therapy of Varices to Other Success Chapters of Modern Medicine?

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Early rebleeding increases mortality of variecal bleeders on secondary prophylaxis with β-blockers and ligation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Despite secondary-prophylaxis with β-blockers and endoscopic-variceal-ligation rebleeding is frequent, particularly within the first-6-weeks. Early-rebleeding may have greater impact on death-risk than late rebleeding, which may affect therapy. We assessed whether the influence of rebleeding on long-term survival of patients on secondary-prophylaxis is greater in patients with early-rebleeding.

METHODS

369 patients with cirrhosis were consecutively included once recovered from first variceal-bleeding. The impact of rebleeding on survival was investigated according to whether it occurred within 6-weeks (early-rebleeding) or later (late-rebleeding).

RESULTS

During 46-months of follow-up (IQR: 14-61), 45 patients (12%) had early-rebleeding, 74(20%) had late-rebleeding and 250(68%) had not rebleeding. Mortality risk was higher in early-rebleeding group vs. late-rebleeding (HR = 0.476, 95%CI = 0.318-0.712, p < 0.001) and was similar in late-rebleeding group vs. no-rebleeding (HR = 0.902, 95%CI = 0.749-1.086, p = 0.271). Adjusting for baseline risk-factors, early-rebleeding was independently associated with mortality-risk (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.02-2.45; p = 0.04). Child-Pugh&MELD scores improved at 3rd-4th-week only in patients without early-rebleeding (p < 0.05). Presence of ascites or encephalopathy, MELD-score>12 and HVPG>20 mmHg identified patients at risk of early-rebleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with early-rebleeding have higher risk of death than patients without rebleeding and even than those rebleeding later. Our results suggest that patients at risk of early rebleeding might benefit from preemptive therapies such as early-TIPS.

Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Acute Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background/Aims

The treatment outcomes and prognostic markers of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of AVB in HCC patients.

Methods

Cirrhotic patients with endoscopically confirmed AVB between 2007 and 2013 were enrolled in this prospective study. Prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Results

Among the 329 enrolled patients, 125 patients (38.0%) were diagnosed with HCC. The 6-week mortality rates of all enrolled AVB patients and the HCC subgroup were 14.9% and 26.4%. The 5-day treatment failure, 6-week mortality, cirrhosis-related complications, and duration of hospitalization were greater in HCC patients than in non-HCC patients (all p<0.05). In the HCC subgroup, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.145; p=0.001) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (C-D vs 0-B) (HR, 3.096; p=0.019) were independent predictors of 6-week mortality. Our study revealed that 85% of HCC patients with both a MELD score ≥15.5 and BCLC stage C-D died within 6 weeks, and the 6-week mortality risk was 21-fold higher in this group than in the group with a lower MELD score and earlier HCC stage (p<0.001).

Conclusions

The 5-day treatment failure and 6-week mortality rates were significantly higher among AVB patients with HCC than those without HCC. The MELD score and the presence and stage of HCC are strong predictors of 6-week mortality in patients with AVB.

Risk stratification in acute variceal bleeding: Comparison of the AIMS65 score to established upper gastrointestinal bleeding and liver disease severity risk stratification scoring systems in predicting mortality and rebleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Risk stratification is recommended in all patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). It remains unclear whether liver disease severity or upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) scoring algorithms offer superior predictive ability. We aimed to validate the AIMS65 score as a predictor of mortality in AVB, and to compare AIMS65 with established UGIB and liver disease severity risk stratification scores.

METHODS

International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes identified patients presenting with AVB to three tertiary centers over a 48-month period. Patients were risk-stratified using AIMS65, Rockall, pre-endoscopy Rockall, Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and United Kingdom MELD (UKELD) scores. Primary outcomes were inpatient and 6-week mortality and inpatient rebleeding.

RESULTS

Two hundred and twenty-three patients were included. Inpatient and 6-week mortality were 13.9% and 15.5% respectively. Prediction of inpatient mortality by AIMS65 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUROC: 0.84]) was equivalent to UGIB (Rockall: 0.79, pre-Rockall: 0.78) and liver risk scores (MELD: 0.81, UKELD: 0.79, Child-Pugh: 0.78). AIMS65 score ≥3 best defined high- and low-risk groups for inpatient mortality (mortality 37.7% vs 4.9%). AIMS65 (AUROC: 0.62) was equivalent to UGIB risk scores (pre-Rockall: 0.64, Rockall: 0.70) in predicting inpatient rebleeding and superior to liver risk scores (MELD: 0.56, UKELD: 0.57, Child-Pugh: 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

AIMS65 is equivalent to established UGIB and liver disease severity risk stratification scores in predicting mortality, and superior to liver scores in predicting rebleeding.

Declining Mortality of Cirrhotic Variceal Bleeding Requiring Admission to Intensive Care: A Binational Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to describe changes over time in admissions and outcomes, including length of stay, discharge destinations, and mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU for variceal bleeding, and to compare it to the outcomes of those with other causes of ICU admissions.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of data captured prospectively in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation Adult Patient Database.

SETTINGS

One hundred eighty-three ICUs in Australia and New Zealand.

PATIENTS

Consecutive admissions to these ICUs for upper gastrointestinal bleeding related to varices in patients with cirrhosis between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

ICU admissions for variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients accounted for 4,003 (0.6%) of all 720,425 nonelective ICU admissions. The proportion of ICU admissions for variceal bleeding fell significantly from 0.8% (83/42,567) in 2005 to 0.4% (53/80,388) in 2016 (p < 0.001). Hospital mortality rate was significantly higher within admissions for variceal bleeding compared with nonelective ICU admissions (20.0% vs 15.7%; p < 0.0001), but decreased significantly over time, from 24.6% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2016 (annual decline odds ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.96). There was no difference in the reduction in mortality from variceal bleeding over time between liver transplant and nontransplant centers (p = 0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Admission rate to ICU and mortality of cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding has declined significantly over time compared with other causes of ICU admissions with the outcomes comparable between liver transplant and nontransplant centers.

Use of the Serum Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac2 Binding Protein as a Marker of Gastroesophageal Varices and Liver-Related Events in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

A test to narrow down patients who require esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) with a high probability of having gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and a high-risk of liver-related events is an unmet need.

METHODS

The measurement of serum fibrosis markers and EGD was performed in 166 consecutive chronic hepatitis C patients. The correlation between the grades of GEV and fibrosis markers and the subsequent occurrence of liver-related and fibrosis markers were examined.

RESULTS

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein (WFA⁺-M2BP) levels increased according to the grade of GEV (3.4 (0.2-18.6) for no GEV, 7.9 (1.8-20.0) for small GEV, and 11.4 (4.0-20.0) for large GEV; p < 0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of the WFA⁺-M2BP was superior compared to other serum fibrosis markers, and WFA⁺-M2BP was an independent predictor of GEV in the multivariate analysis. Furthermore, the cumulative incidence of liver-related events at one year was 2.3% in patients with WFA⁺-M2BP levels ≤ 7.0 and 37.5% in patients with WFA⁺-M2BP levels > 7.0 (p < 0.001). WFA⁺-M2BP > 7.0 was a significant predictive factor for liver-related events (Hazard ratio 6.7, p = 0.004) independent of Child-Pughclass.

CONCLUSIONS

WFA⁺-M2BP could be used to estimate the presence and grade of GEV and is linked to liver-related events in chronic hepatitis C patients.

Thromboelastography-guided Blood Product Transfusion in Cirrhosis Patients With Variceal Bleeding: A Randomized Controlled Trial

GOALS

The aim of this study was to assess the use of thromboelastography (TEG)-directed blood product transfusion in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding compared with conventional transfusion for correction of coagulopathy.

BACKGROUND

Coagulopathy is common in patients with cirrhosis. Recommendations for correction of conventional parameters of coagulation-platelets and the international normalized ratio before endoscopy in patients with acute variceal bleeding-need more validation.

STUDY

In this randomized controlled trial, cirrhotic patients with severe coagulopathy and acute variceal bleeding were randomized to either TEG-guided blood product transfusion or conventional transfusion from March 2017 to December 2017. The primary outcome was the difference in the amount of fresh frozen plasma and platelet units transfused between the groups. Secondary outcomes were rebleeding at 5 days and 42 days, and 6-week mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 60 recruited patients, 30 each were randomized to the TEG and conventional transfusion groups. There were no differences in baseline characteristic and endoscopic findings between the 2 groups. Four subjects in the TEG group received blood product transfusions versus all in the conventional transfusion group (13.3% vs. 100%; P<0.001). The control of bleeding on initial endoscopy was similar in the 2 groups. Rebleeding in the TEG and conventional transfusion groups at 5 days was similar [1 (3.3%) vs. 4 (13.3%), P=0.167], whereas it was significantly less in the TEG group at 42 days [3 (10%) vs. 11 (36.7%), P=0.012]. Mortality at 6 weeks was seen in 4 (13.3%) in the TEG group and in 8 (26.7%) patients in the conventional transfusion group (P=0.176).

CONCLUSIONS

TEG-guided strategy was associated with reduced blood product transfusion to correct coagulopathy without compromising hemostasis in cirrhotic patients (Clinical trial ID: CTRI/2017/02/007864).

Second urgent endoscopy within 48-hour benefits cirrhosis patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding

Urgent endoscopy (UE) is important to the diagnosis and treatment of liver cirrhosis patients with esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB). It was reported that a second-look endoscopy may benefit acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) caused by peptic ulcer, while whether it could improve UGIB caused by liver cirrhosis associated EVB remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of second UE for liver cirrhosis with EVB and further examined the potential prognostic factors.Patients aged ≥18 years who underwent UE for EVB within 2 hours after the admission were included and divided into scheduled second-look group (n = 245) and uncontrolled bleeding group (n = 352) based on the indications for second UE within 48 hours after initial endoscopy. Demographic and clinical data were collected and analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to identify the risk factors for prognosis. The value of different scoring system was compared.Statistical differences were found on history of bleeding and hepatocellular carcinoma, ascites, endoscopic type of bleeding, between scheduled second-look group and uncontrolled bleeding group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis confirmed that ascites, hemoglobin <60 g/L, AIMS65 score and failure to identify in initial UE were independent risk factors for bleeding uncontrolled after initial UE, and age, bilirubin level, initial unsatisfactory UE hemostasis, failure to identify bleeding on initial UE and tube/urgent TIPS suggested in initial UE were independent risk factors for 42-day mortality.A second-look UE could bring benefit for liver cirrhosis patients with EVB without increasing the complication rate.

Clinical outcome indicators in chronic hepatitis B and C: A primer for value-based medicine in hepatology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) are major health problems that require complex and costly treatments. Liver-specific clinical outcome indicators (COIs) able to assist both clinicians and administrators in improving the value of care are presently lacking. The Value-Based Medicine in Hepatology (VBMH) study aims to fill this gap, devising and testing a set of COIs for CLD, that could be easily collected during clinical practice. Here we report the COIs generated and recorded for patients with HBV or HCV infection at different stages of the disease.

METHODS/RESULTS

In the first phase of VBMH study, COIs were identified, based on current international guidelines and literature, using a modified Delphi method and a RAND 9-point appropriateness scale. In the second phase, COIs were tested in an observational, longitudinal, prospective, multicentre study based in Lombardy, Italy. Eighteen COIs were identified for HBV and HCV patients. Patients with CLD secondary to HBV (547) or HCV (1391) were enrolled over an 18-month period and followed for a median of 4 years. The estimation of the proposed COIs was feasible in the real-word clinical practice and COI values compared well with literature data. Further, the COIs were able to capture the impact of new effective treatments like direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in the clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

The COIs efficiently measured clinical outcomes at different stages of CLDs. While specific clinical practice settings and related healthcare systems may modify their implementation, these indicators will represent an important component of the tools for a value-based approach in hepatology and will positively affect care delivery.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Egyptian patients with cirrhosis: Post-therapeutic outcome and prognostic indicators

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a serious complication of portal hypertension in cirrhotic patients. The objective of this study is to identify the risk factors for morbidity and mortality occurring after an UGIB attack.

METHODS

A total of 1097 UGIB attacks in 690 patients with liver cirrhosis were studied. Their clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic data were reviewed.

RESULTS

Mean age 53.2 ± 10.6 (20-90) years, 78% men and the main cause of liver disease was hepatitis C (94.9%). Complications occurred after 467 attacks (42.6%): hepatic encephalopathy 31.4%, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 18%, renal impairment 13.2%, and re-bleeding in 7.8%, while 199 patients (18.1%) died. Complications followed 78.4% of bleeding from gastric varices, 75% of post-interventional ulcers, 10.8% of peptic ulcers, and 5.9% of telangiectasias. By univariate analysis: packed red blood cells units transfused, transaminases, Child-Pugh (CP), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores, beside the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), previous hemorrhage in the previous 6 months, and the source of bleeding, were associated with occurrence of complications. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors of complications were CP, MELD, and ALBI scores (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval: 5.63, 3.55-8.93; 1.15, 1.11-1.19; and 2.11, 1.4-3.19, respectively) beside the presence of HCC (4.89, 2.48-9.64). Mortality predictors were packed red blood cells units transfused (1.11, 1.01-1.24), CP (5.1, 1.42-18.25) MELD (1.27, 1.21-1.32) scores, and presence of HCC (6.62, 2.93-14.95).

CONCLUSION

High CP, MELD, and ALBI scores beside the presence of HCC could predict poor outcome of UGIB. In the absence of these risk factors, early discharge could be considered if the source of bleeding is peptic ulcer or telangiectasia.

Development and Validation of a Novel Model for Outcomes in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with cirrhosis is associated with high mortality, ranging from 12 to 20% at 6 weeks. The existing prognostic models for AVB lack precision and require further validation.

AIM

In this prospective study, we aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model for AVB, and compared it with the existing models.

METHODS

We included 285 patients from March 2017 to November 2017 in the derivation cohort and 238 patients from December 2017 to June 2018 in the validation cohort. Two prognostic models were developed from derivation cohort by logistic regression analysis. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The 6-week mortality was 22.1% in derivation cohort and 22.3% in validation cohort, P = 0.866. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) [odds ratio (OR) 1.106] and encephalopathy (E) (OR 4.658) in one analysis and Child-Pugh score (OR 1.379) and serum creatinine (OR 1.474) in another analysis were significantly associated with 6-week mortality. MELD-E model (AUROC 0.792) was superior to Child-creatinine model (AUROC) in terms of discrimination. The MELD-E model had highest AUROC; as compared to other models-MELD score (AUROC 0.751, P = 0.036), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.737, P = 0.037), D'Amico model (AUROC 0.716, P = 0.014) and Augustin model (AUROC 0.739, P = 0.018) in derivation cohort. In validation cohort, the discriminatory performance of MELD-E model (AUROC 0.805) was higher as compared to other models including MELD score (AUROC 0.771, P = 0.048), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.746, P = 0.011), Augustin model (AUROC 0.753, P = 0.039) and D'Amico model (AUROC 0.736, P = 0.021).

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients with AVB, the novel MELD-Encephalopathy model predicts 6 weeks mortality with higher accuracy than the existing prognostic models.

Band ligation versus no intervention for primary prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in adults with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices

BACKGROUND

The presence of oesophageal varices is associated with the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Endoscopic variceal ligation is used to prevent this occurrence but the ligation procedure may be associated with complications.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of band ligation versus no intervention for primary prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in adults with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices.

SEARCH METHODS

We combined searches in the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and Science Citation Index with manual searches. The last search update was 9 February 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised clinical trials comparing band ligation verus no intervention regardless of publication status, blinding, or language in the analyses of benefits and harms, and observational studies in the assessment of harms. Included participants had cirrhosis and oesophageal varices with no previous history of variceal bleeding.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three review authors extracted data independently. The primary outcome measures were all-cause mortality, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and serious adverse events. We undertook meta-analyses and presented results using risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and I² values as a marker of heterogeneity. In addition, we calculated the number needed to treat to benefit (NNTTB) for the primary outcomes . We assessed bias control using the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary domains; determined the certainty of the evidence using GRADE; and conducted sensitivity analyses including Trial Sequential Analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Six randomised clinical trials involving 637 participants fulfilled our inclusion criteria. One of the trials included an additional small number of participants (< 10% of the total) with non-cirrhotic portal hypertension/portal vein block. We classified one trial as at low risk of bias for the outcome, mortality and high risk of bias for the remaining outcomes; the five remaining trials were at high risk of bias for all outcomes. We downgraded the evidence to moderate certainty due to the bias risk. We gathered data on all primary outcomes from all trials. Seventy-one of 320 participants allocated to band ligation compared to 129 of 317 participants allocated to no intervention died (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.70; I² = 0%; NNTTB = 6 persons). In addition, band ligation was associated with reduced risks of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.72; 6 trials, 637 participants; I² = 61%; NNTTB = 5 persons), serious adverse events (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.70; 6 trials, 637 participants; I² = 44%; NNTTB = 4 persons), and variceal bleeding (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.69; 6 trials, 637 participants; I² = 56%; NNTTB = 5 persons). The non-serious adverse events reported in association with band ligation included oesophageal ulceration, dysphagia, odynophagia, retrosternal and throat pain, heartburn, and fever, and in the one trial involving participants with either small or large varices, the incidence of non-serious side effects in the banding group was much higher in those with small varices, namely ulcers: small versus large varices 30.5% versus 8.7%; heartburn 39.2% versus 17.4%. No trials reported on health-related quality of life.Two trials did not receive support from pharmaceutical companies; the remaining four trials did not provide information on this issue.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review found moderate-certainty evidence that, in patients with cirrhosis, band ligation of oesophageal varices reduces mortality, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, variceal bleeding, and serious adverse events compared to no intervention. It is unlikely that further trials of band ligation versus no intervention would be considered ethical.

Comparison of various prognostic scores in variceal and non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various prognostic scores like Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS), modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (mGBS), full Rockall score (FRS) including endoscopic findings, clinical Rockall score (CRS), and albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), mental status, systolic blood pressure, age >65 (AIMS65) are used for risk stratification in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The utility of these scores in variceal UGIB (VUGIB) is not well defined. In this prospective study, we aimed to assess the performance of these scores in patients with non-variceal (NVUGIB) and VUGIB.

METHODS

We included 1011 patients (during March 2017 and August 2018) including 439 with NVUGIB and 572 VUGIB. Performance of GBS, mGBS, FRS, CRS, and AIMS65 for various outcome measures was analyzed using the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The accuracy of prognostic scores in predicting the composite outcome including the need of hospital-based intervention and 42-day mortality was higher in NVUGIB as compared with VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.641 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.669 vs. 0.625; GBS: 0.719 vs. 0.587; mGBS: 0.711 vs. 0.594; AIMS65: 0.567 vs. 0.548. GBS and mGBS at a cut-off score of 1 had the highest negative predictive value, 91.7% and 91.3%, respectively, for predicting composite outcome in NVUGIB. Similarly, these scores had better accuracy for predicting 42-day rebleeding in NVUGIB as compared to VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.680 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.698 vs. 0.565; GBS: 0.661 vs. 0.543; mGBS: 0.627 vs. 0.540; AIMS65: 0.695 vs. 0.606.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic scores such as CRS, FRS, GBS, mGBS, and AIMS65 predict the need for hospital-based management, rebleeding, and mortality better among patients with NVUGIB than VUGIB.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: Objective admission and support criteria in the intensive care unit

Cirrhosis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Significant complications include variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, and infection. When these complications are severe, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) is often required for organ support and management. Intensive care therapy can also serve as a bridge to liver transplantation. Along with decompensation of cirrhosis, the concept of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has emerged. This involves an acute precipitating event, such as the development of infection in a patient with cirrhosis, which leads to acute deterioration of hepatic function and extrahepatic organ failure. Extrahepatic complications often include renal, cardiovascular, and respiratory failures. Patients with significant extrahepatic and hepatic failures need ICU admission for organ support. Again, in patients who are deemed suitable liver transplant candidates, intensive care management may allow bridging to liver transplantation. However, patients with a Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF score greater than 70 at 48 to 72 hours post-ICU admission do not seem to benefit from ongoing intensive support and a palliative approach may be more appropriate.

Clinical Factors Associated with Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background

Whether certain clinical or laboratory characteristics are able to differentiate cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeds (UGIB) at high-risk inpatient mortality is unknown. The objective of this study is to elucidate patient factors at presentation that are associated with in-hospital mortality.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB was performed. Baseline characteristics at admission including demographics, clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated with logistic regression analyses. The discriminative power of MELD score was evaluated with the use of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

One hundred and sixteen patients were included in this study. MELD score at presentation was higher in the death cohort (24.0 versus 14.8, P < 0.001) and remained significantly associated with mortality after multivariable adjustment (P < 0.001). ROC analysis of MELD score for death yielded an area under the curve of 0.88. At admission, the death group had lower systolic blood pressure (103 mmHg versus 123 mmHg, P=0.008 and more frequently presented with bright red blood per rectum (46.7% versus 11.9%, P = 0.003). Bilirubin and international normalized ratio were also higher, and albumin was lower in patients who died.

Conclusions

Among cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB, the severity of symptoms and impairment in hepatic synthetic function is associated with in-hospital mortality. Admission MELD score may be useful in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Surgical portosystemic shunts versus transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Variceal haemorrhage that is refractory or recurs after pharmacologic and endoscopic therapy requires a portal decompression shunt (either surgical shunts or radiologic shunt, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)). TIPS has become the shunt of choice; however, is it the preferred option? This review assesses evidence for the comparisons of surgical portosystemic shunts versus TIPS for variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of surgical portosystemic shunts versus transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science. We also searched on-line trial registries, reference lists of relevant articles, and proceedings of relevant associations for trials that met the inclusion criteria for this review (date of search 8 March 2018).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing surgical portosystemic shunts versus TIPS for the treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trials and extracted data using methodological standards expected by Cochrane. We assessed risk of bias according to domains and risk of random errors with Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA). We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We found four randomised clinical trials including 496 adult participants diagnosed with variceal haemorrhage due to cirrhotic portal hypertension. The overall risk of bias in all the trials was judged at high risk. All the trials were conducted in the United States of America (USA). Two of the trials randomised participants to selective surgical shunts versus TIPS. The other two trials randomised participants to non-selective surgical shunts versus TIPS. The diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was by clinical and laboratory findings. We are uncertain whether there is a difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days between surgical portosystemic shunts compared with TIPS (risk ratio (RR) 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 1.99; participants = 496; studies = 4). We are uncertain whether there is a difference in encephalopathy between surgical shunts compared with TIPS (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.16; participants = 496; studies = 4). We found evidence suggesting an increase in the occurrence of the following harms in the TIPS group compared with surgical shunts: all-cause mortality at five years (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.90; participants = 496; studies = 4); variceal rebleeding (RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.49; participants = 496; studies = 4); reinterventions (RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.28; participants = 496; studies = 4); and shunt occlusion (RR 0.14, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.51; participants = 496; studies = 4). We could not perform an analysis of health-related quality of life but available evidence appear to suggest improved health-related quality of life in people who received surgical shunt compared with TIPS. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence for all-cause mortality at 30 days and five years, irreversible shunt occlusion, and encephalopathy to very low because of high risk of bias (due to lack of blinding); inconsistency (due to heterogeneity); imprecision (due to small sample sizes of the individual trials and few events); and publication bias (few trials reporting outcomes). We downgraded the certainty of the evidence for variceal rebleeding and reintervention to very low because of high risk of bias (due to lack of blinding); imprecision (due to small sample sizes of the individual trials and few events); and publication bias (few trials reporting outcomes). The small sample sizes and few events did not allow us to produce meaningful trial sequential monitoring boundaries, suggesting plausible random errors in our estimates.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence suggesting that surgical portosystemic shunts may have benefit over TIPS for treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension. Given the very low-certainty of the available evidence and risks of random errors in our analyses, we have very little confidence in our review findings.

Carvedilol versus traditional, non-selective beta-blockers for adults with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices

BACKGROUND

Non-selective beta-blockers are recommended for the prevention of bleeding in people with cirrhosis, portal hypertension and gastroesophageal varices. Carvedilol is a non-selective beta-blocker with additional intrinsic alpha₁-blocking effects, which may be superior to traditional, non-selective beta-blockers in reducing portal pressure and, therefore, in reducing the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of carvedilol compared with traditional, non-selective beta-blockers for adults with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices.

SEARCH METHODS

We combined searches in the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary's Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and Science Citation Index with manual searches. The last search update was 08 May 2018.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised clinical trials comparing carvedilol versus traditional, non-selective beta-blockers, irrespective of publication status, blinding, or language. We included trials evaluating both primary and secondary prevention of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in adults with cirrhosis and verified gastroesophageal varices.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three review authors (AZ, RJ and LH), independently extracted data. The primary outcome measures were mortality, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and serious adverse events. We undertook meta-analyses and presented results using risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD), both with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and I² values as a marker of heterogeneity. We assessed bias control using the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary domains and the quality of the evidence with GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

Eleven trials fulfilled our inclusion criteria. One trial did not report clinical outcomes. We included the remaining 10 randomised clinical trials, involving 810 participants with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices, in our analyses. The intervention comparisons were carvedilol versus propranolol (nine trials), or nadolol (one trial). Six trials were of short duration (mean 6 (range 1 to 12) weeks), while four were of longer duration (13.5 (6 to 30) months). Three trials evaluated primary prevention; three evaluated secondary prevention; while four evaluated both primary and secondary prevention. We classified all trials as at 'high risk of bias'. We gathered mortality data from seven trials involving 507 participants; no events occurred in four of these. Sixteen of 254 participants receiving carvedilol and 19 of 253 participants receiving propranolol or nadolol died (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.53; I² = 0%, low-quality evidence). There appeared to be no differences between carvedilol versus traditional, non-selective beta-blockers and the risks of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.37; 810 participants; 10 trials; I² = 45%, very low-quality evidence) and serious adverse events (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.42; 810 participants; 10 trials; I² = 14%, low-quality evidence). Significantly more deaths, episodes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and serious adverse events occurred in the long-term trials but there was not enough information to determine whether there were differences between carvedilol and traditional, non-selective beta-blockers, by trial duration. There was also insufficient information to detect differences in the effects of these interventions in trials evaluating primary or secondary prevention. There appeared to be no differences in the risk of non-serious adverse events between carvedilol versus its comparators (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.29; 596 participants; 6 trials; I² = 88%; very low-quality evidence). Use of carvedilol was associated with a greater reduction in hepatic venous pressure gradient than traditional, non-selective beta-blockers both in absolute (MD -1.75 mmHg, 95% CI -2.60 to -0.89; 368 participants; 6 trials; I² = 0%; low-quality evidence) and percentage terms (MD -8.02%, 95% CI -11.49% to -4.55%; 368 participants; 6 trials; I² = 0%; low-quality evidence). However, we did not observe a concomitant reduction in the number of participants who failed to achieve a sufficient haemodynamic response (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.02; 368 participants; 6 trials; I² = 42%; very low-quality evidence) or in clinical outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no clear beneficial or harmful effects of carvedilol versus traditional, non-selective beta-blockers on mortality, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, serious or non-serious adverse events despite the fact that carvedilol was more effective at reducing the hepatic venous pressure gradient. However, the evidence was of low or very low quality, and hence the findings are uncertain. Additional evidence is required from adequately powered, long-term, double-blind, randomised clinical trials, which evaluate both clinical and haemodynamic outcomes.

Four-dimensional Flow MRI as a Marker for Risk Stratification of Gastroesophageal Varices in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Purpose To assess the feasibility of four-dimensional (4D) flow MRI as a noninvasive imaging marker for stratifying the risk of variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. Materials and Methods This study recruited participants scheduled for both liver MRI and gastroesophageal endoscopy. Risk of variceal bleeding was assessed at endoscopy by using a three-point scale: no varices, low risk, and high risk requiring treatment. Four-dimensional flow MRI was used to create angiograms for evaluating visibility of varices and to measure flow volumes in main portal vein (PV), superior mesenteric vein, splenic vein (SV), and azygos vein. Fractional flow changes in PV and SV were calculated to quantify shunting (outflow) from PV and SV into varices. Logistic analysis was used to identify the independent indicator of high-risk varices. Results There were 23 participants (mean age, 52.3 years; age range, 25-75 years), including 14 men (mean age, 51.7 years; age range, 25-75 years) and nine women (mean age, 53.2 years; age range, 31-72 years) with no varices (n = 8), low-risk varices (n = 8), and high-risk varices (n = 7) determined at endoscopy. Four-dimensional flow MRI-based angiography helped radiologists to view varices in four of 15 participants with varices. Independent indicators of high-risk varices were flow volume in the azygos vein greater than 0.1 L/min (P = .034; 100% sensitivity [seven of seven] and 62% specificity [10 of 16]) and fractional flow change in PV of less than 0 (P < .001; 100% sensitivity [seven of seven] and 94% specificity [15 of 16]). Conclusion Azygos flow greater than 0.1 L/min and portal venous flow less than the sum of splenic and superior mesenteric vein flow are useful markers to stratify the risk of gastroesophageal varices bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Comparison of clinical outcomes between variceal and non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in cirrhosis is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and can be classified as acute variceal bleeding (AVB) or non-variceal bleeding (NVB). Differences in mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and 30-day readmission have yet to be determined. As such, the study aimed to evaluate differences in these clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients admitted with UGIB.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all cirrhotic patients hospitalized for UGIB who underwent upper endoscopy from July 2014 to July 2016. AVB was defined as the presence of varices on endoscopy with high-risk stigmata such as cherry-red spots. Mortality, intensive care unit admission, hospital LOS, and 30-day hospital readmission were recorded and compared among patients with AVB and NVB.

RESULTS

A total of 116 patients with cirrhosis were included, 73 with AVB and 43 with NVB. Patients with NVB were older than those with AVB (60.4 ± 11.1 vs 55.0 ± 9.5, P = 0.006) whereas patients with AVB were more likely to have known esophageal varices (64.4% vs 37.2%, P = 0.007). Patients with AVB and NVB had similar mortality (15.1% vs 9.3%, P = 0.57), hospital LOS (4.9, interquartile range: 3.6-6.9 days vs 5.0, interquartile range: 2.7-8.3 days), and 30-day readmission rates (19.2% vs 30.2%, P = 0.18). Severity of clinical presentation was associated with increased LOS and overall mortality, including the need for intensive care unit admission, but these were not associated with 30-day readmission rates.

CONCLUSION

There were no differences in clinical outcomes, including mortality, in cirrhotic patients admitted with AVB and NVB.

Acute Variceal Bleeding Causes Significant Morbidity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The need for primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in children is unclear due to insufficient evidence of the efficacy of prophylactic therapy and the mortality and morbidity associated with the first bleeding event. Previous studies have provided estimates of mortality. We aimed to investigate the morbidity associated with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in children and to identify contributing factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed children with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis admitted with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between 2000 and 2015.

RESULTS

Seventy AVB episodes in 57 children (median age 6 years, 52% girls) were included, 58% with cirrhosis and 30% portal vein thrombosis. Approximately 67% were the patient's first bleed. Post-AVB morbidity was present in 57% of all episodes and in 64% of first bleeds and included: ascites (34%), infection (30%), respiratory complications (24%), intensive care unit admission (20%), rebleed (11%), encephalopathy (7%), acute kidney injury (6%), and failure to control bleed (4%). Two patients died (4% of first bleeds, 8% of cirrhotics' first bleeds) within 6 weeks of bleeding. Median length of stay was 7 days. Overall morbidity was associated with total bilirubin (P = 0.001). Ascites after AVB was associated with pediatric end-stage liver disease (P = 0.0007), total bilirubin (P = 0.001), and cirrhosis (P = 0.006). Median length of stay was longer in patients with morbidities (18 vs 4 days, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Children with AVB suffer significant morbidity but have a low risk of death. Morbidity should therefore be considered in future studies measuring the risks and benefits of primary prophylaxis of first AVB in children.

Surgical portosystemic shunts versus devascularisation procedures for prevention of variceal rebleeding in people with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis

BACKGROUND

Hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is an important cause of variceal bleeding in low-income countries. Randomised clinical trials have evaluated the outcomes of two categories of surgical interventions, shunts and devascularisation procedures, for the prevention of variceal rebleeding in people with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis. The comparative overall benefits and harms of these two interventions are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of surgical portosystemic shunts versus oesophagogastric devascularisation procedures for the prevention of variceal rebleeding in people with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, reference lists of articles, and proceedings of relevant associations for trials that met the inclusion criteria (date of search 11 January 2018).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing surgical portosystemic shunts versus oesophagogastric devascularisation procedures for the prevention of variceal rebleeding in people with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed the trials and extracted data using methodological standards expected by Cochrane. We assessed risk of bias according to domains and risk of random errors with GRADE and Trial Sequential Analysis. We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We found two randomised clinical trials including 154 adult participants, aged between 18 years and 65 years, diagnosed with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis. One of the trials randomised participants to proximal splenorenal shunt versus distal splenorenal shunt versus oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy, and the other randomised participants to distal splenorenal shunt versus oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy. In both trials the diagnosis of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis was made based on clinical and biochemical assessments. The trials were conducted in Brazil and Egypt. Both trials were at high risk of bias.We are uncertain as to whether surgical portosystemic shunts improved all-cause mortality compared with oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy due to imprecision in the trials (risk ratio (RR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55 to 9.92; participants = 154; studies = 2). We are uncertain whether serious adverse events differed between surgical portosystemic shunts and oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy (RR 2.26, 95% CI 0.44 to 11.70; participants = 154; studies = 2). None of the trials reported on health-related quality of life. We are uncertain whether variceal rebleeding differed between surgical portosystemic shunts and oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy (RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.13 to 1.23; participants = 154; studies = 2). We found evidence suggesting an increase in encephalopathy in the shunts group versus the devascularisation with splenectomy group (RR 7.51, 95% CI 1.45 to 38.89; participants = 154; studies = 2). We are uncertain whether ascites and re-interventions differed between surgical portosystemic shunts and oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy. We computed Trial Sequential Analysis for all outcomes, but the trial sequential monitoring boundaries could not be drawn because of insufficient sample size and events. We downgraded the overall certainty of the body of evidence for all outcomes to very low due to risk of bias and imprecision.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Given the very low certainty of the available body of evidence and the low number of clinical trials, we could not determine an overall benefit or harm of surgical portosystemic shunts compared with oesophagogastric devascularisation with splenectomy. Future randomised clinical trials should be designed with sufficient statistical power to assess the benefits and harms of surgical portosystemic shunts versus oesophagogastric devascularisations with or without splenectomy and with or without oesophageal transection.

Outcomes of patients treated with Sengstaken-Blakemore tube for uncontrolled variceal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality, bleeding control rate, and their associated predictors in patients treated with Sengstaken-Blakemore (SB) tube for uncontrolled variceal hemorrhage associated with hemodynamic instability or failure of endoscopic treatment.

METHODS

The clinical data of 66 consecutive patients with uncontrolled variceal hemorrhage treated with SB tube at Gyeongsang National University Hospital from October 2010 to October 2015 were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall success rate of initial hemostasis with SB tube was 75.8%, and the independent factors associated with hemostasis were non-intubated state before SB tube (odds ratio, 8.50; p = 0.007) and Child-Pugh score &lt; 11 (odds ratio, 15.65; p = 0.022). Rebleeding rate after successful initial hemostasis with SB tube was 22.0%, and esophageal rupture occurred in 6.1%. Mortality within 30 days was 42.4%, and the related independent factors with mortality were failure of initial hemostasis with SB tube (hazard ratio, 6.24; p &lt; 0.001) and endotracheal intubation before SB tube (hazard ratio, 2.81; p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

Since the era of endoscopic band ligation, SB tube might be a beneficial option as a temporary salvage treatment for uncontrolled variceal hemorrhage. However, rescue therapy had a high incidence of fatal complication and rebleeding.