A 15-year follow-up study of Chinese schizophrenic patients

Suicide rates among people with serious mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

People with serious mental illness are at great risk of suicide, but little is known about the suicide rates among this population. We aimed to quantify the suicide rates among people with serious mental illness (bipolar disorder, major depression, or schizophrenia).

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were searched to identify studies published from 1 January 1975 to 10 December 2020. We assessed English-language studies for the suicide rates among people with serious mental illness. Random-effects meta-analysis was used. Changes in follow-up time and the suicide rates were presented by a locally weighted scatter-plot smoothing (LOESS) curve. Suicide rate ratio was estimated for assessments of difference in suicide rate by sex.

RESULTS

Of 5014 identified studies, 41 were included in this analysis. The pooled suicide rate was 312.8 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 230.3-406.8). Europe was reported to have the highest pooled suicide rate of 335.2 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 261.5-417.6). Major depression had the highest suicide rate of 534.3 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 30.4-1448.7). There is a downward trend in suicide rate estimates over follow-up time. Excess risk of suicide in males was found [1.90 (95% CI 1.60-2.25)]. The most common suicide method was poisoning [21.9 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 3.7-50.4)].

CONCLUSIONS

The suicide rates among people with serious mental illness were high, highlighting the requirements for increasing psychological assessment and monitoring. Further study should focus on region and age differences in suicide among this population.

Very long-term outcome of psychotic disorders

BACKGROUND

The outcome of schizophrenia and related psychoses is generally modest, and patients display high rates of disability.

AIMS

The aim of the review is to present an up-to-date account of the research on the very long-term outcome of psychotic disorders.

METHOD

We conducted a search in the PubMed and Scopus databases for articles published since the publication of the very long-term data of the World Health Organization's International Study of Schizophrenia (the ISoS study), over the last 18 years (from 2002 to 2019). Studies were included if they reported on at least 15-year outcome and if they had used valid and reliable tools for the estimation of the patients' outcome in terms of symptomatology and functioning.

RESULTS

A total of 16 studies were included in this review, involving 1,391 patients with schizophrenia and related psychoses. Most were single-center studies, with moderate size samples of patients, and 11 were prospective studies. Very long-term outcome of psychotic disorders varies considerably among studies. Good outcome ranges from 8% to 73.8%, and it appears to be better in developing countries, whereas differences are less apparent among Western countries (8%-40.3%). Studies in different settings have used different methods involving a variety of samples of patients to estimate their outcome, whereas definitions of good and poor outcome also varied among studies. Longer duration of untreated psychosis was associated with worse outcome in some studies. Schizophrenia was found to have poorer long-term prognosis compared to other schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A large proportion of patients, ranging from 19% to 48.2%, were not on medication.

CONCLUSION

Recent evidence on the very long-term outcome of psychotic disorders is in line with previous reports and suggests that prognosis remains rather modest. There are several limitations of current research regarding outcome definitions and study design that should be addressed by future research.

Very Long-Term Outcome of Community-Dwelling Patients With Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders in Rural Greece

The objective of the present study was to measure the very long-term outcome in community-dwelling patients with a diagnosis of psychosis and to search for possible correlations of outcome with clinical factors. The sample included 55 psychotic patients with at least 15 years of disease duration (M = 32.1 years). For the estimation of the outcome, the Health of the Nations Outcome Scale and the Clinical Global Impression Scale were used. A total of 34.5% of the patients had a good outcome, whereas 27.3% had poor outcome. Outcome was found to be correlated to symptoms, and it was significantly worse in patients living with other severely mentally ill family members. In our study, outcome was good in more than a third of patients. Both symptoms and social functioning were associated with outcome. This study may have some implications for mental healthcare delivery.

Schizophrenia outcome measures in the wider international community

Background

Outcome of schizophrenia has been described as favourable in low-and middle-income countries. Recently, researchers have questioned these findings

Aims

To examine the outcome studies carried out in different countries specifically looking atthose from low-and middle-income countries

Methods

Long-term course and outcome studies in schizophrenia were reviewed

Results

A wide variety of outcome measures are used. The most frequent are clinical symptoms, hospitalisation and mortality (direct indicators), and social/ occupational functioning, marriage, social support and burden of care (indirect indicators). Areas such as cognitive function, duration of untreated psychosis, quality of life and effect of medication have not been widely studied in low-and middle-income countries

Conclusions

The outcome of schizophrenia appears to be better in low-and middle-income countries. A host of sociocultural factors have been cited as contributing to this but future research should aim to understand this better outcome. There is a need for more culture-specific instruments to measure outcomes

Problems with early and very early intervention in psychosis

‘Early intervention’ can refer to two different approaches-intervention when the psychosis is already evident and intervention before a psychosis is fully apparent. Each carries a distinctly different set of risks. The hoped-for benefits of early intervention in a fully evident psychosis are based on research that reveals an association between intervention early in the illness and good outcome. Those suffering from a psychosis of recent onset, however, are more likely to experience a spontaneous remission of illness, and this may readily explain the observed association. Early intervention in such cases of good-prognosis psychosis may lead to unnecessary and, sometimes, protracted treatment for those who would do well with no treatment. Intervention in the supposed prodromal phase of psychosis presents more serious hazards. The screening instruments currently available are inadequate for the accurate prediction of psychosis, and the risks of negative effects for the large numbers of people who screen false-positive are considerable. These risks include unnecessary fear of illness, restriction of life goals, use of medication and their side-effects.

Might Hallucinations Have Social Utility?: A Proposal for Scientific Study

There are many historical examples of people who heard voices or saw visions but were not classified as having a mental illness and who were supported by a religious community. The article offers a perspective for effective psychosocial supports for schizophrenia. The author analyzes data on 95 people who experienced verifiable persistent non-drug-assisted hallucinations in Europe, North America, and Australasia and discusses the life outcomes of 39 subjects. They include founders of religions, dysfunctional monarchs, persons with cosmological beliefs, and mental health workers. Their psychoses were intrinsic to their personalities and contributions. Hallucinations generated by psychosis were useful for cultural innovation, particularly in religion as many hallucinators were integrated into church history. Community, work, friendship, and supportive practices are discussed. A scientific study of effective psychosocial support to supplement medication for schizophrenia is outlined.

Is duration of illness really influencing outcome in major psychoses?

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of studies identifies the duration of illness (DI) as an important predictor of outcome in patients affected by major psychoses (MP). The aim of the present paper was to revise medical literature about DI and its effects on MP, focusing in particular on the relationship between DI and outcome with particular reference to treatment response, suicidal risk, cognitive impairment and social functioning.

METHODS

A search in the main database sources has been performed to obtain a comprehensive overview. Studies with different methodologies (open and double-blinded) have been included, while papers considering other variables such as duration of untreated episode/illness were excluded. MP included the diagnoses of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder.

RESULTS

Available data show that DI influences treatment response, suicidal risk and loss of social functioning in schizophrenic patients, while results are more controversial with regard to cognitive impairment. In bipolar disorder, a long DI has been associated with less treatment response, more suicidal risk and cognitive impairment, but more data are needed to draw definitive conclusions. Finally, studies, regarding DI of illness and its predictive value of outcome in major depressive disorder show contradictory results.

CONCLUSIONS

DI appears a negative outcome factor particularly for schizophrenia, while with regard to mood disorders, more data are needed to draw definitive sound conclusions.

The Epidemiology and Associated Phenomenology of Formal Thought Disorder: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Authors of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, Fifth Edition (DSM-V) have recommended to "integrate dimensions into clinical practice." The epidemiology and associated phenomenology of formal thought disorder (FTD) have been described but not reviewed. We aimed to carry out a systematic review of FTD to this end.

METHODS

A systematic review of FTD literature, from 1978 to 2013, using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

A total of 881 abstracts were reviewed and 120 articles met inclusion criteria; articles describing FTD factor structure (n = 15), prevalence and longitudinal course (n = 41), role in diagnosis (n = 22), associated clinical variables (n = 56), and influence on outcome (n = 35) were included. Prevalence estimates for FTD in psychosis range from 5% to 91%. Dividing FTD into domains, by factor analysis, can accurately identify 91% of psychotic diagnoses. FTD is associated with increased clinical severity. Poorer outcomes are predicted by negative thought disorder, more so than the typical construct of "disorganized speech."

CONCLUSION

FTD is a common symptom of psychosis and may be considered a marker of illness severity. Detailed dimensional assessment of FTD can clarify diagnosis and may help predict prognosis.

Family history of psychosis and social, occupational and global outcome in schizophrenia: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate associations between family history of psychosis and long-term occupational, social and global (i.e. combined occupational, social and clinical) outcome in schizophrenia.

METHOD

A systematic search to identify potentially relevant studies was conducted using seven electronic databases and a manual search of literature. Only observational studies with a follow-up period of at least 2 years were included.

RESULTS

The search identified 4081 unique potentially relevant articles, of which 14 met our inclusion criteria. The presence of family history of psychosis was associated with poor occupational and global outcome (n=3; r=0.17; P=0.008, n=11; r=0.13; P=0.002, respectively).

CONCLUSION

This was the first systematic review on the effects of family history of psychosis on occupational and social outcome in schizophrenia. Based on the review, the presence of family history of psychosis has a relatively small but statistically significant association with long-term occupational and global outcome in patients with schizophrenia.

Risk factors for poor work functioning of persons with schizophrenia in rural China

BACKGROUND

The long-term work performance of persons with schizophrenia in the community is unclear. This study examined the status of long-term work functioning and the predictors of poor work status among patients with schizophrenia in a Chinese rural area.

METHODS

A 10-year follow-up investigation (1994-2004) of a cohort (n = 510) of persons with schizophrenia was conducted in Xinjin County, Chengdu, China.

RESULTS

Compared with baseline data, work functioning of patients with schizophrenia deteriorated after 10 years. The rates of not working increased significantly from 12.0% in 1994 to 23.0% in 2004. Bivariate analyses showed that the poor work functioning in 2004 was significantly associated with male gender, older age, older age of first onset, higher level of education, longer duration of illness, lower family economic status, lack of caregivers, poor work status in 1994, living in shabby or unstable house, marked symptoms, and higher score on the Social Disability Screening Schedule (SDSS). In multiple logistic regression analyses, higher score of SDSS and poor work status in 1994 were identified as unique predictors of poor work status in 2004.

CONCLUSION

The status of work functioning of persons with schizophrenia decreased over the course of the illness. The risk factors for poor work functioning and specific socio-cultural environment should be considered in planning community mental health services and rehabilitation for these patients.

The abilities of improved schizophrenia patients to work and live independently in the community: a 10-year long-term outcome study from Mumbai, India

BACKGROUND

The outcome of first episode schizophrenia has several determinants. Socioecological factors, particularly living conditions, migration, community and culture, not only affect the level of risk but also the outcome. Mega cities around the world show a unique socioecological condition that has several challenges for mental health. The present study reports on the long-term status of patients with schizophrenia in such a mega city: Mumbai, India.

AIM

This study aims to reveal the long-term outcome of patients suffering from schizophrenia with special reference to clinical symptoms and social functioning.

METHODS

The cohort for this study was drawn from a 10-year follow-up of first episode schizophrenia. Patients having completed 10 years of consistent treatment after first hospitalisation were assessed on psychopathological and recovery criteria. Clinical as well as social parameters of recovery were evaluated. Descriptive statistics with 95% confidence intervals are provided.

RESULTS

Of 200 patients recruited at the beginning of this study, 122 patients (61%) were present in the city of Mumbai at the end of 10-year follow-up study period. Among 122 available patients, 101 patients (50.5%) were included in the assessment at the end of 10-year follow-up study period, 6 patients (3.0%) were excluded from the study due to changed diagnosis, and 15 patients (7.5%) were excluded due to admission into long-term care facilities. This indicates that 107 out of 122 available patients (87.7%) were living in the community with their families. Out of 101 (50.5%) patients assessed at the end of 10 years, 61 patients (30.5%) showed improved recovery on the Clinical Global Impression Scale, 40 patients (20%) revealed no improvement in the recovery, 43 patients (72.9%) were able to live independently, and 24 patients (40%) were able to find employment.

CONCLUSION

With 10 years of treatment, the recovery rate among schizophrenia patients in Mumbai was 30.5%. Among the patients, 87.7% of patients lived in the community, 72.9% of patients lived independently, and 40% of patients obtained employment. However, 60% of patients were unable to return to work, which highlights the need for continued monitoring and support to prevent the deterioration of health in these patients. It is likely that socioecological factors have played a role in this outcome.

Is the course and outcome of schizophrenia better in the 'developing' world?

Historically, poor outcome has often been considered to be an integral part of the concept of schizophrenia, though in recent times this has been challenged by many cross-cultural studies. In this article, we review various studies pertaining to course and outcome of schizophrenia to have an understanding about variations in course and outcome of schizophrenia across cultures and nations. For better appraisal, the research studies have been divided into studies prior to cross-cultural World Health Organization (WHO) sponsored studies (Pre-WHO studies), WHO sponsored cross-cultural studies, and studies on course and outcome of schizophrenia not sponsored by WHO. We believe that the evidence arising from various studies across the globe largely supports the 'favorable outcome hypothesis in developing countries', i.e. developing countries have a larger proportion of patients with a good outcome and lesser percentage with a worst outcome as compared to developed countries, albeit amidst the controversies discussed by us. We suggest that in course and outcome studies, culture should not be used as a synonym for unexplained variance and research designs focusing at other potential factors impacting course and outcome of schizophrenia are much needed.

Eleven-year clinical outcome of schizophrenia in Bali

OBJECTIVE

To contrast the short-term and long-term outcome of schizophrenia in Bali.

METHOD

The clinical outcomes of 46 schizophrenic patients (DSM-IV-TR) consecutively admitted to Bangli Mental Hospital were evaluated by Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and Eguma's Social Adjustment Scale (ESAS) at a 11-year follow-up, which was subsequent to a 5-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Neither the PANSS score nor the ESAS score were significantly different, and there was a significant correlation between the two follow-up data. Subjects categorized into either the best or worst outcome group at the 5-year follow-up tended to be classified into the same category at the 11-year follow-up more often than those who were categorized into the medium outcome groups at the 5-year follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The 5-year outcome of schizophrenia strongly predicted the 11-year outcome, especially for subjects who had gone into either a remissive or severe deterioration state within 5 years.

Twenty-year course of schizophrenia: the Madras Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

To follow up 90 first-episode schizophrenia patients after 20 years and to study the course of symptomatology, work, social functioning, and pattern of illness during this period.

METHODS

The Present State Examination and the Psychiatric and Personal History Schedule were administered at fixed points during follow-up. The measures adopted to ensure a good follow-up rate (67%) after 20 years under adverse conditions are described.

RESULTS

Complete data were obtained from 61 subjects; 16 had died, and 13 could not be traced. After 20 years, 5 patients had recovered completely, and another 5 were continuously ill. Most of the cohort had multiple relapses with or without complete remission between them. The Global Assessment of Functioning Scale showed that symptoms and social functioning in this sample approximated results from developing countries and were much better than those of developed nations. There were not many sex differences. Marriage and occupational rates were higher than those observed in many published reports.

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of the few long-term follow-up studies from the developing world. It reveals a pattern of course and functioning distinctly better than that found in many such studies from the developed nations.

A 20-year follow-up study on schizophrenia in Singapore

OBJECTIVE

To assess the outcome and predictors of patients with schizophrenia 20 years later.

METHOD

The patients, aged 15-39 years, with diagnosis of schizophrenia and first admitted to a national mental hospital in Singapore in 1975 were included. In 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995, their hospital records were examined and the patients were interviewed to determine their working and treatment status. Possible predictors of good outcome and suicide data were determined.

RESULTS

A total of 402 patients were included. Over 20 years, there was lower percentage of patients working full time and proportionately more patients were receiving out-patient treatment. Overall, about two-third of the patients had a good/fair outcome. Shorter illness duration before admission was significantly associated with a good outcome. The suicide rate was the highest in the first 10 years.

CONCLUSION

Most patients with schizophrenia had a good/fair outcome at 20 years.

Trance, functional psychosis, and culture

This paper discusses the hypothesis that the symptoms of functional psychoses can be caused by culturally structured spontaneous trances that may be reactions to environmental stress and psychological trauma. Findings are reviewed of anthropological studies of meditative trance experiences in Indian yogis characterized by divided consciousness (dissociation), religious auditory and visual hallucinations, and beliefs in their own spiritual powers. An explanation of the psychological mechanisms of meditative trance is also provided, highlighting trance-related alteration of consciousness within an Indian cultural context. It is suggested that the psychological mechanisms of meditative trance are similar in structure to spontaneous trances underlying the symptoms of some functional psychoses. Findings from cross-cultural studies are also reviewed, highlighting the effects of culture on the symptoms, indigenous diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes of functional psychoses. In non-Western cultures, transient functional psychoses with complete recovery are 10 times more common than in Western cultures. It is suggested that egocentrism and a loss of spiritual explanations for psychosis in Western cultures constructs a clinical situation in which persons with functional psychoses are treated for a biogenetic (incurable) brain disease rather than a curable spiritual illness. This difference in cultural belief systems leads to poorer outcomes for Western patients compared to non-Western patients. Recognizing cultural differences in symptoms, indigenous diagnoses, and treatment for functional psychoses can help explain the dramatic cross-cultural differences in outcome.

Early intervention in schizophrenia: a critique

OBJECTIVE

Two forms of early intervention in psychosis are currently being proposed--intervention before the onset of illness with at-risk individuals and intervention after the onset of psychosis.

METHOD

The risks and potential benefits associated with these two approaches were examined using published data and Bayes probability theorem.

RESULTS

Claims for benefits from early intervention in established psychosis go back more than two hundred years to the nineteenth-century advocates for asylum construction. Theoretical support for early intervention in psychosis rests on data suggesting that a longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is associated with poor outcome. The association of DUP with outcome, however, appears to be inseparable from the confounding influence of the good outcome expected in recent-onset psychosis. Although some researchers advocate treating people with premorbid features of psychosis or other high-risk indicators, adequate screening measures and effective interventions are not yet available. The most promising current screening measure, if applied to the general population, would be accurate only two percent of the time. The accuracy of these measures can be improved by screening only those patients who are referred to a clinic, but this strategy will result in many cases in the population-at-large being overlooked.

DISCUSSION

The risks and potential benefits associated with the two early intervention approaches are very different. The provision of optimal treatment early in psychosis could produce benefits, but people with brief, good-prognosis psychotic episodes are likely to receive unnecessary treatment. Screening the general population or patients referred to a clinic will have little public health impact on the incidence of schizophrenia. There is likely to be considerable negative impact on those who are inaccurately labeled as being at imminent risk of psychosis and are treated accordingly.

[Disability in schizophrenia. Intrinsic factors and prediction of psychosocial outcome. An analysis of literature]

OBJECTIVE

Many different factors, both related to the individual and illness ("intrinsic" factors) and to the environment ("extrinsic" factors), contribute in different ways to the development of disability. Basing on data of literature, this review focuses the main "intrinsic" factors predicting disability in schizophrenia.

METHOD

A systematic search on Mediline of all papers published during the period 1965-2001 was performed, using "schizophrenia", "outcome", "psychosocial outcome", "social disability" and "social adjustment" as key words. Only papers reporting specifically data about predictive factors and psychosocial outcome variables were considered; prospective follow-up studies were considered, but retrospective and cross-sectional studies were also taken into account when data deriving from prospective studies were inconsistent.

RESULTS

Male sex predicts a higher disability among demographic factors; lower social and occupational adjustment are premorbid personality factors associated with higher disability; among factors related to illness, younger age at onset of illness, "nuclear", "non paranoid" and in particular "deficit" forms of schizophrenia seem to predict more disability. The latter seems to be predicted also by higher levels of negative symptoms and neuropsychological deficits; the role of depressive symptoms seems to be less supported by follow-up data; a continuous course of the illness predicts more disability, although some evidences show a progressive reduction of disability, at least in the long term.

CONCLUSIONS

Disability shows a largely autonomous course respect to symptoms and has to be considered an independent parameter of outcome. Few intrinsic factors show a predictive role also in the long term.

Culture and schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders

The comparative study of schizophrenia and related disorders across cultures has come a long way since Kraepelin advocated its cause, following his trip to Java at the beginning of the last century. The principal development since then has been the burgeoning of interest in the field, culminating in innovative and ambitious international collaborative research by the WHO. Despite reservations about covert ideology or about the more overt methodologic difficulties, the balance of evidence from these and similar studies suggests that: It is feasible to conduct such research despite the numerous hazards. There is a certain uniformity to the way schizophrenia presents globally; there are equally significant cultural differences. The outcome of schizophrenia appears to be better in developing, than developed cultures; reasons for this are far from clear, nevertheless, it can be safely assumed that culturally-determined processes, whether social or environmental, are partly responsible. Overall, the study of schizophrenia in different cultures has proved useful in establishing the pancultural and the culture-specific properties of this and related disorders.

Spontaneous oscillations of cerebral blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral arteries of normal subjects and schizophrenic patients

Although many regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) studies of schizophrenic patients have been carried out, only a few studies have investigated real-time hemodynamic changes in schizophrenic patients. In the present study, we used long-term monitoring of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) by non-invasive transcranial Doppler ultrasonography to obtain real-time CBF data in 55 schizophrenic patients and 20 normal comparison subjects. The mean blood flow velocity and pulsatility index (PI) of the MCA were not constant during long-term monitoring. They showed sinusoidal oscillations similar to those described in previous reports. The amplitude variations of these oscillations in both drug-naive and medicated schizophrenic patients were significantly decreased compared with findings in normal control subjects. The averaged PI values were found to be decreased in patients with illness durations of more than 10 years. After withdrawal of antipsychotic medication, both the amplitude variations of oscillations and the PI values in the drug-withdrawn patients were significantly decreased relative to findings in normal control subjects. Our results show a decreased adjustment ability of cerebral vessel resistance not only in neuroleptic-naive schizophrenic patients but also in patients with longer illness duration. Neuroleptics could affect the adjustment ability of vessel resistance.

Active monitoring of 12,760 clozapine recipients in the UK and Ireland. Beyond pharmacovigilance

BACKGROUND

People prescribed clozapine for treatment-resistant schizophrenia have mandatory haematological monitoring through a case register for identifying reversible neutropenia.

AIMS

To quantify risk factors for agranulocytosis in subjects receiving clozapine.

METHOD

Data from 12,760 subjects registered to receive clozapine from January 1990 to April 1997 were analysed. Risk factors for agranulocytosis were quantified using a Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

The risk for agranulocytosis in Asian subjects was 2.4 times that in Caucasians (P = 0.03). There was an age-related increase in risk of 53% per decade (P = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The case register yielded valuable information for guiding research into the causes of the haematological reactions.

The 15-year outcome of Chinese patients with schizophrenia in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVE

To explore the differential outcome of schizophrenia in developed and developing countries. The 15-year outcome of patients with schizophrenia in Hong Kong is reported.

METHOD

In a 15-year retrospective outcome study, 100 patients with first-onset schizophrenia in 1977-1978 were randomly selected for outcome assessment from a pool of 797 patient files. The patterns of outcome were assessed by the same set of instruments and methodology as in other centres, since Hong Kong is 1 of the World Health Organization (WHO) centres for the International Study of Schizophrenia (ISoS).

RESULTS

Nineteen subjects were untraceable, and 10 subjects committed suicide. More than one-half of the subjects had a good symptomatic outcome, while about 20% of the subjects were rated as having a good psychosocial adjustment. Over the entire 15-year period, 96% of the subjects were maintained on medications, and 79% were living with family members.

CONCLUSION

Despite Hong Kong's developed economy, its schizophrenia outcome is similar to that in developing countries. The existence of good family support and active follow-up treatment may be important contributory factors to better outcome.

Outcome of marriage in schizophrenia

Marriage is a social process requiring certain social abilities for it to be successful. Schizophrenia, which can lead to a reduction of such abilities, has been associated with a low marital rate, especially in men. Data on long-term marital outcome are, however, sparse. This paper deals with changing marital status in a cohort of 76 first-onset schizophrenic patients followed-up for 10 years. A fairly high marital rate of 70% was observed in this sample, with more men remaining single and more women facing broken marriages. It was observed that good marital outcome, in terms of getting married and keeping the marriage intact, was associated with a number of clinical and sociodemographic variables. Duration of illness, type of onset, auditory hallucinations and simple depression at intake, unemployment and economic slide during the course of illness and a relapsing course of illness were all related to marital outcome. Outcome in other areas such as clinical, social and occupational functioning discriminated between the groups of good and poor marital functioning.

Suicide as an outcome for mental disorders. A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders have a strong association with suicide. This meta-analysis, or statistical overview, of the literature gives an estimate of the suicide risk of the common mental disorders.

METHOD

We searched the medical literature to find reports on the mortality of mental disorders. English language reports were located on MEDLINE (1966-1993) with the search terms mental disorders', 'brain injury', 'eating disorders', 'epilepsy', 'suicide attempt', 'psychosurgery', with 'mortality' and 'follow-up studies', and from the reference lists of these reports. We abstracted 249 reports with two years or more follow-up and less than 10% loss of subjects, and compared observed numbers of suicides with those expected. A standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated for each disorder.

RESULTS

Of 44 disorders considered, 36 have a significantly raised SMR for suicide, five have a raised SMR which fails to reach significance, one SMR is not raised and for two entries the SMR could not be calculated.

CONCLUSIONS

If these results can be generalised then virtually all mental disorders have an increased risk of suicide excepting mental retardation and dementia. The suicide risk is highest for functional and lowest for organic disorders with substance misuse disorders lying between. However, within these broad groupings the suicide risk varies widely.

Developmental trajectory and disease progression in schizophrenia: the conundrum, and insights from a 12-year prospective study in the Monaghan 101

Though conceptualised originally as a deteriorating disorder, some contemporary studies have been interpreted as challenging these foundations; more radically, it has been proposed that schizophrenia may be a 'static encephalopathy' of neurodevelopmental origin. The argument offered here is that schizophrenia is indeed a neurodevelopmental disorder, but that this is not in itself antithetical to later disease progression. Rather, the onset of psychosis may reflect the maturationally-mediated triggering of an active disease process that is associated with progressive deterioration unless attenuated by antipsychotic drugs. A developmental trajectory is proposed to link first or early second trimester dysplasia to the chronic course of the illness; from this, it is argued that schizophrenia is inherently a progressive disorder but that antipsychotic drugs may act to ameliorate this progressive component and thus confer on the disease course some of the characteristics of a 'static encephalopathy'. The 'true' natural history of an illness cannot be determined from studies in treated populations.

Ten-year course of schizophrenia--the Madras longitudinal study

Ninety first-episode patients fulfilling ICD-9 criteria for schizophrenia were followed up prospectively for 10 years. Complete assessments were possible on 76. The pattern of illness was good in 67% of the cases, and the commonest patterns was one with recurrent episodes. Predictors of poor course and longer time spent in psychosis were identified. All positive and negative symptoms showed a steep decline at the end of 10 years. The results are discussed in the context of longitudinal research on the course of schizophrenia in developing countries.

Outcome of schizophrenia: some transcultural observations with particular reference to developing countries

The present paper provides a description of data based and methodologically sound studies of outcome of schizophrenia from developing and non-Western countries and compares the results. Major studies reviewed include the 2- and 5-year follow-up of the cohort of the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia, the patients of the World Health Organization Collaborative Study on the Determinants of Outcome of Severe Mental Disorders, a few Indian studies including the study sponsored by the Indian Council of Medical Research and some studies from Colombia and South-East Asia. The studies are compared in terms of the quality of methodology and the rate of attrition. Although the outcome criteria of these studies are not similar, it is obvious that the outcome of schizophrenia in developing countries is generally more favourable. The reasons for this are far from clear. Research concerning the issues pertaining to better outcome of schizophrenia in developing countries in the context of socio-cultural differences in woefully lacking. This is an area that deserves research attention.

Predictability of rehospitalization for schizophrenia

This analysis examines the predictability of the course of schizophrenia using long-term follow-up data on hospital episodes in a cohort of patients from a psychiatric case register in Denmark. We focus on whether clinical and sociodemographic data collected during the first episode are related to the number of hospitalizations during follow-up and the association of patients' course of hospitalizations with the risk of being rehospitalized. A Poisson regression model and a proportional hazards model were used to address these questions. Age of onset and time to the first rehospitalization were strong early predictors of chronicity of course, as measured by the number of psychiatric hospitalizations for each schizophrenic patient. The results also show that the risk of rehospitalization depends on the previous tenures in the community.