Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A nature-positive future with biological invasions: theory, decision support and research needs

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species

Climate change may significantly alter how organisms disperse, with implications for population spread and species management. Wind-dispersed plants have emerged as a useful study system for investigating how climate change affects dispersal, although studies modeling wind dispersal often assume propagules are released from a single point on an individual. This simplifying assumption, while useful, may misestimate dispersal. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on dispersal distances and spread rates, examining how these quantities shift when accounting for all points of seed release on an individual. Using the wind-dispersed invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, we quantify temperature-driven shifts in the distribution of flower head heights using a passive warming field experiment, and estimate how these shifts affect dispersal using the Wald analytical long-distance (WALD) model; for C. nutans, we use existing demographic data to simulate how these shifts affect population spread rates. We also compare dispersal distances for both warmed and ambient temperature plants, considering the entire distribution of flower head heights versus the common assumption of point-source seed release at the maximum height. For experimentally grown individuals, an ~0.6°C higher growing temperature increased mean and maximum flower head height by 14.1 cm (15.0%) and 14.0 cm (13.2%), respectively, in C. nutans and by 21.2 cm (26.6%) and 31.8 cm (36.7%), respectively, in C. acanthoides. Seeds from warmed individuals were more likely to exceed a given dispersal distance than those from their unwarmed counterparts; warmed C. nutans and C. acanthoides seeds were on average 1.36 and 1.71 times as likely, respectively, to travel 10 m or more in dispersal simulations, with this disparity increasing at longer dispersal distances. For C. nutans, increased growing temperatures boosted simulated rates of population spread by 42.2%, while assuming dispersal from a maximum height point source rather than the true distribution of flower head heights increased simulated spread by up to 28.5%. Our results not only demonstrate faster population spread under increased temperatures, but also have substantial implications for modeling such spread, as the common simplifying assumption of dispersal from a single maximum height source may substantially overestimate spread rates.

The right tree in the right place? A major economic tree species poses major ecological threats

Tree species in the Pinaceae are some of the most widely introduced non-native tree species globally, especially in the southern hemisphere. In New Zealand, plantations of radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) occupy c. 1.6 million ha and form 90% of planted forests. Although radiata pine has naturalized since 1904, there is a general view in New Zealand that this species has not invaded widely. We comprehensively review where radiata pine has invaded throughout New Zealand. We used a combination of observational data and climate niche modelling to reveal that invasion has occurred nationally. Climate niche modelling demonstrates that while current occurrences are patchy, up to 76% of the land area (i.e. 211,388 km2) is climatically capable of supporting populations. Radiata pine has mainly invaded grasslands and shrublands, but also some forests. Notably, it has invaded lower-statured vegetation, including three classes of naturally uncommon ecosystems, primary successions and secondary successions. Overall, our findings demonstrate pervasive and ongoing invasion of radiata pine outside plantations. The relatively high growth rates and per individual effects of radiata pine may result in strong effects on naturally uncommon ecosystems and may alter successional trajectories. Local and central government currently manage radiata pine invasions while propagule pressure from existing and new plantations grows, hence greater emphasis is warranted both on managing current invasions and proactively preventing future radiata pine invasions. We therefore recommend a levy on new non-native conifer plantations to offset costs of managing invasions, and stricter regulations to protect vulnerable ecosystems. A levy on economic uses of invasive species to offset costs of managing invasions alongside stricter regulations to protect vulnerable ecosystems could be a widely adopted measure to avert future negative impacts.

A Conceptual Framework for Range-Expanding Species that Track Human-Induced Environmental Change

For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapid increase in the number of species whose range dynamics are human induced, and review the relationships and differences to both natural range expansion and biological invasions. We discuss the consequences for science, policy and management in an era of rapid global change and highlight four key challenges relating to basic gaps in knowledge, and the transfer of scientific understanding to biodiversity management and policy. We conclude that range-expanding species responding to human-induced environmental change will become an essential feature for biodiversity management and science in the Anthropocene. Finally, we propose the term neonative for these taxa.

A Review of Native Wild Bee Nutritional Health

Declines in wild and managed bee species richness and abundances have been observed throughout Europe and North America in recent decades. These declines have led to questions regarding pollination of wild and cultivated plants. In response to these concerns, efforts towards the conservation of pollinators have been initiated. Part of this conservation effort should be to provide the basic nutritional needs for bees. Nutrition plays one of the most important roles in bee growth, development, and reproduction. There is a large body of information regarding honey bee nutrition, whereas we lack nutritional information on native wild bees. Our knowledge of bumble bee nutritional needs has increased since the introduction of commercial rearing and sale of certain bumble bee species; however, there is still a lack of basic nutritional guidelines such as minimum dietary needs of proteins, amino acids, lipids, and sterols. The large difference in physiology and life history between honey bees and North American wild bees suggests that their nutritional requirements could be quite different.

Rapid increase in growth and productivity can aid invasions by a non-native tree

Research on biological invasions has produced detailed theories describing range expansions of introduced populations. However, current knowledge of evolutionary factors associated with invasive range expansions, especially those related to rapid evolution of long-lived organisms, is still rudimentary. Here, we used a system of six 40-year-old invasive pine populations that originated from replicated introduction events to study evolution in productivity, growth, and chemical defence traits. We tested the hypotheses that invasive populations were undergoing rapid phenotypic change as populations spread, that populations exhibit trade-offs between evolution in growth and chemical defences, and that rates of rapid evolution in plant growth and productivity effect rates of invasion. Although all invasions started from replicated pools of genetic material and equal propagule pressure, we found divergence in mean values for the six invasive populations in the six traits measured. Not only were there between-population variations but also invasive populations were also rapidly changing along each invasive population expansion. Two populations displayed greater leaf areas (LAs) and smaller specific LAs (SLAs) during range expansion. Four populations had faster growth rates at the leading edge of the invasion front in comparison with plants at the rear edge. In terms of total plant defences, non-volatile resin increased in plants along one invasion gradient and decreased in a second, total needle phenolics increased in plants along one invasion gradient and total wood phenolics increased in plants along the one invasion gradient and decreased in a second. We found no trade-offs between investments in growth and chemical defence. Also, faster rates of change in growth rate and LA were positively associated with greater dispersal distances of invasive populations, suggesting rapid evolution may increase invasiveness. Understanding the roles of both natural and human-mediated ecological and evolutionary processes in population-level dynamics is key to understanding the ability of non-native species to invade.

Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts

Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.

The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario, Canada

There is a poor understanding of the importance of biotic interactions in determining species distributions with climate change. Theory from invasion biology suggests that the success of species introductions outside of their historical ranges may be either positively (biotic acceptance) or negatively (biotic resistance) related to native biodiversity. Using data on fish community composition from two survey periods separated by approximately 28 years during which climate was warming, we examined the factors influencing the establishment of three predatory centrarchids: Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu), Largemouth Bass (M. salmoides), and Rock Bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in lakes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario. Variance partitioning demonstrated that, at a regional scale, abiotic factors play a stronger role in determining the establishment of these species than biotic factors. Pairing lakes within watersheds where each species had established with lakes sharing similar abiotic conditions where the species had not established revealed both positive and negative relationships between the establishment of centrarchids and the historical presence of other predatory species. The establishment of these species near their northern range boundaries is primarily determined by abiotic factors at a regional scale; however, biotic factors become important at the lake-to-lake scale. Studies of exotic species invasions have previously highlighted how spatial scale mediates the importance of abiotic vs. biotic factors on species establishment. Our study demonstrates how concepts from invasion biology can inform our understanding of the factors controlling species distributions with changing climate.

Self-organization of plants in a dryland ecosystem: Symmetry breaking and critical cluster size

Periodical patterns of vegetation in an arid or semiarid ecosystem are described using statistical mechanics and Monte Carlo numerical simulation technique. Plants are characterized by the area that each individual occupies and a facilitation-competition pairwise interaction. Assuming that external resources (precipitation, solar radiation, nutrients, etc.) are available to the ecosystem, it is possible to obtain the persistent configurations of plants compatible with an equitable distribution of resources maximizing the Shannon entropy. Variation of vegetation patterns with density, critical cluster size, and facilitation distance are predicted. Morphological changes of clusters are shown to be a function of the external resources. As a final remark, it is proposed that an early warning of desertification could be detected from the coefficient of variation of the mean cluster size together with the distribution of cluster sizes.

Biological invasions, climate change and genomics

The rate of biological invasions is expected to increase as the effects of climate change on biological communities become widespread. Climate change enhances habitat disturbance which facilitates the establishment of invasive species, which in turn provides opportunities for hybridization and introgression. These effects influence local biodiversity that can be tracked through genetic and genomic approaches. Metabarcoding and metagenomic approaches provide a way of monitoring some types of communities under climate change for the appearance of invasives. Introgression and hybridization can be followed by the analysis of entire genomes so that rapidly changing areas of the genome are identified and instances of genetic pollution monitored. Genomic markers enable accurate tracking of invasive species' geographic origin well beyond what was previously possible. New genomic tools are promoting fresh insights into classic questions about invading organisms under climate change, such as the role of genetic variation, local adaptation and climate pre-adaptation in successful invasions. These tools are providing managers with often more effective means to identify potential threats, improve surveillance and assess impacts on communities. We provide a framework for the application of genomic techniques within a management context and also indicate some important limitations in what can be achieved.

De novo genome assembly of the economically important weed horseweed using integrated data from multiple sequencing platforms

Horseweed (Conyza canadensis), a member of the Compositae (Asteraceae) family, was the first broadleaf weed to evolve resistance to glyphosate. Horseweed, one of the most problematic weeds in the world, is a true diploid (2n = 2x = 18), with the smallest genome of any known agricultural weed (335 Mb). Thus, it is an appropriate candidate to help us understand the genetic and genomic bases of weediness. We undertook a draft de novo genome assembly of horseweed by combining data from multiple sequencing platforms (454 GS-FLX, Illumina HiSeq 2000, and PacBio RS) using various libraries with different insertion sizes (approximately 350 bp, 600 bp, 3 kb, and 10 kb) of a Tennessee-accessed, glyphosate-resistant horseweed biotype. From 116.3 Gb (approximately 350× coverage) of data, the genome was assembled into 13,966 scaffolds with 50% of the assembly = 33,561 bp. The assembly covered 92.3% of the genome, including the complete chloroplast genome (approximately 153 kb) and a nearly complete mitochondrial genome (approximately 450 kb in 120 scaffolds). The nuclear genome is composed of 44,592 protein-coding genes. Genome resequencing of seven additional horseweed biotypes was performed. These sequence data were assembled and used to analyze genome variation. Simple sequence repeat and single-nucleotide polymorphisms were surveyed. Genomic patterns were detected that associated with glyphosate-resistant or -susceptible biotypes. The draft genome will be useful to better understand weediness and the evolution of herbicide resistance and to devise new management strategies. The genome will also be useful as another reference genome in the Compositae. To our knowledge, this article represents the first published draft genome of an agricultural weed.

The contrasting effects of genome size, chromosome number and ploidy level on plant invasiveness: a global analysis

Understanding how species' traits relate to their status (e.g. invasiveness or rarity) is important because it can help to efficiently focus conservation and management effort and infer mechanisms affecting plant status. This is particularly important for invasiveness, in which proactive action is needed to restrict the establishment of potentially invasive plants. We tested the ability of genome size (DNA 1C-values) to explain invasiveness and compared it with cytogenetic traits (chromosome number and ploidy level). We considered 890 species from 62 genera, from across the angiosperm phylogeny and distributed from tropical to boreal latitudes. We show that invasiveness was negatively related to genome size and positively related to chromosome number (and ploidy level), yet there was a positive relationship between genome size and chromosome number; that is, our result was not caused by collinearity between the traits. Including both traits in explanatory models greatly increased the explanatory power of each. This demonstrates the potential unifying role that genome size, chromosome number and ploidy have as species' traits, despite the diverse impacts they have on plant physiology. It provides support for the continued cataloguing of cytogenetic traits and genome size of the world's flora.