Progression of alphafetoprotein before liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients: a critical factor

Development of a nomogram for predicting liver transplantation prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

At present, liver transplantation (LT) is one of the best treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Accurately predicting the survival status after LT can significantly improve the survival rate after LT, and ensure the best way to make rational use of liver organs.

AIM

To develop a model for predicting prognosis after LT in patients with HCC.

METHODS

Clinical data and follow-up information of 160 patients with HCC who underwent LT were collected and evaluated. The expression levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, Golgi protein 73, cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 and M65 were measured using a fully automated chemiluminescence analyzer. The best cutoff value of biomarkers was determined using the Youden index. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors. A forest model was constructed using the random forest method. We evaluated the accuracy of the nomogram using the area under the curve, using the calibration curve to assess consistency. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomograms.

RESULTS

The total tumor diameter (TTD), vascular invasion (VI), AFP, and cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 (CK18-M30) were identified as important risk factors for outcome after LT. The nomogram had a higher predictive accuracy than the Milan, University of California, San Francisco, and Hangzhou criteria. The calibration curve analyses indicated a good fit. The survival and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of high-risk groups were significantly lower than those of low- and middle-risk groups (P < 0.001). The DCA shows that the model has better clinical practicability.

CONCLUSION

The study developed a predictive nomogram based on TTD, VI, AFP, and CK18-M30 that could accurately predict overall survival and RFS after LT. It can screen for patients with better postoperative prognosis, and improve long-term survival for LT patients.

Role of protein induced by vitamin-K absence-II in transplanted patients with HCC not producing alpha-fetoprotein

Elevated Protein Induced by Vitamin-K Absence-II (PIVKA-II) has been shown to be an adverse prognostic factor in HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). No definitive data are available about the impact of PIVKA-II concerning post-LT recurrence in patients not secreting (≤ 20 ng/mL) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). An observational retrospective study of the East-West HCC-LT consortium is reported. Between 2000 and 2019, 639 HCC patients were enrolled in 5 collaborative European and Japanese centers. To minimize the initial selection bias, an inverse probability therapy weighting method was adopted to analyze the data. In the post-inverse probability therapy weighting population, PIVKA-II (HR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.52-2.64; p < 0.001) and AFP (HR=1.82; 95% CI: 1.48-2.24; p < 0.001) were the most relevant independent risk factors for post-LT recurrence. A sub-analysis focusing only on patients who are AFP non-secreting confirmed the negative role of PIVKA-II (HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.26-3.35; p =0.004). When categorizing the entire population into 4 groups according to the AFP levels (≤ or > 20 ng/mL) and PIVKA (≤ or > 300 mUA/mL) at the time of LT, the lowest recurrence rates were observed in the low AFP-PIVKA-II group (5-year recurrence rate = 8.0%). Conversely, the high AFP-PIVKA-II group had the worst outcome (5-year recurrence rate = 35.1%). PIVKA-II secretion is a relevant risk factor for post-LT HCC recurrence. The role of this marker is independent of the AFP status. Combining both tumor markers, especially in the setting of LT, should be of great relevance for adding information about predicting the post-LT risk of tumor recurrence and selecting these patients for transplantation.

Towards refining the utility of dual (18F-FDG / 18F-Choline) PET/CT for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: a tertiary center study

BACKGROUND

The role of positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management is not clearly defined. Our objective was to analyze the utility of dual-PET/CT (18F-FDG + 18F-Choline) imaging findings on the BCLC staging and treatment decision for HCC patients.

METHODS

Between January 2011 and April 2019, 168 consecutive HCC patients with available baseline dual-PET/CT imaging data were retrospectively analyzed. To identify potential refinement criteria for surgically-treated patients, survival Kaplan-Meier curves of various standard-of-care and dual-PET/CT baseline parameters were estimated. Finally, multivariate cox proportional hazard ratios of the most relevant clinico-biological and/or PET parameters were estimated.

RESULTS

Dual-PET/CT findings increased the score of BCLC staging in 21 (12.5%) cases. In 24.4% (N.=41) of patients, the treatment strategy was modified by the PET findings. Combining AFP levels at a threshold of 10 ng/mL with 18F-FDG or 18F-Choline N status significantly impacted DFS (P<0.05). In particular, the combined criteria of the N+ status assessed by 18F-Choline with AFP threshold of 10 ng/mL provided a highly predictive composite parameter for estimation of DFS according to multivariate analysis (HR=10.6, P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The 18F-Choline / AFP composite parameter appears promising, and further prospective studies are mandatory to validate its oncological impact.

Longitudinal Evaluation of AFP and CEA External Proficiency Testing Reveals Need for Method Harmonization

The glycoproteins alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) have long been approved as biomarkers for diagnosing and monitoring tumors. International Reference Preparations (IRPs) have been around since 1975. Nevertheless, manufacturer-dependent differences have been reported, indicating a lack of harmonization. This paper analyzes data from 15 external quality assessment (EQA) surveys conducted worldwide between 2018 and 2022. The aim was to gain insight into the longitudinal development of manufacturer-dependent differences for CEA and AFP. In each survey, participating laboratories received two samples with different tumor marker levels. Inter- and intra-assay variability was analyzed and the mean 80% and 90% of the manufacturer collectives were compared to the evaluation criteria of the German Medical Association (RiliBÄK). The median EQA results for CEA revealed manufacturer-dependent differences between the highest and lowest collective of up to 100%; for AFP, the median differences mostly remained below 40%. The coefficients of variation were predominantly low for both markers. We concluded that the current assays for AFP and CEA detection are better harmonized than previously reported. The assays displayed a good robustness; however, a narrowing of the current assessment limits in EQA schemes could further enhance the quality of laboratory testing.

AFP Response to Locoregional Therapy Can Stratify the Risk of Tumor Recurrence in HCC Patients after Living Donor Liver Transplantation

(1) Background: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been incorporated into the selection criteria of liver transplantation and been used to predict the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. Locoregional therapy (LRT) is recommended for bridging or downstaging in HCC patients listed for liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the AFP response to LRT on the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). (2) Methods: This retrospective study included 370 HCC LDLT recipients with pretransplant LRT from 2000 to 2016. The patients were divided into four groups according to AFP response to LRT. (3) Results: The nonresponse group had the worst 5-year cumulative recurrence rates whereas the complete-response group (patients with abnormal AFP before LRT and with normal AFP after LRT) had the best 5-year cumulative recurrence rate among the four groups. The 5-year cumulative recurrence rate of the partial-response group (AFP response was over 15% lower) was comparable to the control group. (4) Conclusions: AFP response to LRT can be used to stratify the risk of HCC recurrence after LDLT. If a partial AFP response of over 15% declineis achieved, a comparable result to the control can be expected.

Prolonged Survival after Recurrence in HCC Resected Patients Using Repeated Curative Therapies: Never Give Up!

Surgical resection is the optimal treatment for HCC, despite a high risk of recurrence. Few data are available on patient’s survival after resection. This is a retrospective study of tumor recurrence occurring after hepatectomy for HCC from 2000 to 2016. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors of survival after recurrence (SAR). Among 387 patients, 226 recurred (58.4%) with a median SAR of 26 months. Curative treatments (liver transplantation, repeat hepatectomy, thermal ablation) were performed for 44.7% of patients. Independent prognostic factors for SAR were micro-vascular invasion on the primary surgical specimen, size of the initial tumor >5 cm, preoperative AFP, albumin and platelet levels, male gender, number, size and localization of tumors at recurrence, time to recurrence, Child−Pugh score and treatment at recurrence. In subgroup analysis, early recurrence (46%) was associated with a decrease in SAR, by contrast with late recurrence. However, the overall survival (OS) of patients with early recurrence and curative treatment did not significantly differ from that of non-recurring patients. For late recurrence, OS did not significantly differ from that of non-recurring patients, regardless of the proposed treatment. Aggressive and repeat treatments are therefore key to improve prognosis of patients with HCC.

Prediction of early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation based on computed tomography radiomics nomogram

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence results in poor prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT). This study aimed to explore the value of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram in predicting early recurrence of patients with HCC after LT.

METHODS

A cohort of 151 patients with HCC who underwent LT between December 2013 and July 2019 were retrospectively enrolled. A total of 1218 features were extracted from enhanced CT images. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (LASSO) logistic regression was used for dimension reduction and radiomics signature building. The clinical model was constructed after the analysis of clinical factors, and the nomogram was constructed by introducing the radiomics signature into the clinical model. The predictive performance and clinical usefulness of the three models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Calibration curves were plotted to assess the calibration of the nomogram.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in radiomics signature among early recurrence patients and non-early recurrence patients in the training cohort (P < 0.001) and validation cohort (P < 0.001). The nomogram showed the best predictive performance, with the largest area under the ROC curve in the training (0.882) and validation (0.917) cohorts. Hosmer-Lemeshow testing confirmed that the nomogram showed good calibration in the training (P = 0.138) and validation (P = 0.396) cohorts. DCA showed if the threshold probability is within 0.06-1, the nomogram had better clinical usefulness than the clinical model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our CT-based radiomics nomogram can preoperatively predict the risk of early recurrence in patients with HCC after LT.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Alpha Fetoprotein, and Liver Allocation for Transplantation: Past, Present and Future

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation and has been the treatment of choice due to the oncologic benefit for patients with advanced chronic liver disease (AdvCLD) and small tumors for the last 25 years. For HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has increasingly been applied as an independent predictor for overall survival, disease free recurrence, and waitlist drop out. In addition to static AFP, newer studies evaluating the AFP dynamic response to downstaging therapy show enhanced prognostication compared to static AFP alone. While AFP has been utilized to select HCC patients for transplant, despite years of allocation policy changes, the US allocation system continues to take a uniform approach to HCC patients, without discriminating between those with favorable or unfavorable tumor biology. We aim to review the history of liver allocation for HCC in the US, the utility of AFP in liver transplantation, the implications of weaving AFP as a biomarker into policy. Based on this review, we encourage the US transplant community to revisit its HCC organ allocation model, to incorporate more precise oncologic principles for patient selection, and to adopt AFP dynamics to better stratify waitlist dropout risk.

Prognostic impact of surgical margins for hepatocellular carcinoma according to preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level

BACKGROUND

HCC are known to have satellite nodules and microvascular invasions requiring sufficient margins. An alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level >100 ng/mL is associated with worse pathological features in HCC. In practice, large resection margins, particularly >1 cm, are infrequently retrieved on the specimens.

METHODS

397 patients from 5 centres were included from 2012 to 2017. The primary endpoint was time-to-recurrence in relation to AFP level (> or <100 ng/ml) as well as surgical margins (> or <1 cm). The secondary endpoint was overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 25 months. In Low AFP group, median time to recurrence (TTR) for patients with margins <1 cm was 36 months and for patients with margins ≥1 cm was 34 months (p = 0.756), and overall survival (OS) was not significantly different according to margins (p = 0.079). In High-AFP group, patients with margins <1 cm had a higher recurrence rate than patients with margins ≥1 cm (p = 0.016): median TTR for patients with margins <1 cm was 8 months whereas it was not reached for patients with margins ≥1 cm. Patients with margins <1 cm had a significantly worse OS compared to the patients with margins ≥1 cm (p = 0.043).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative AFP level may help determine margins to effectively treat high AFP tumours. For low-AFP tumours, margins didn't have an impact on TTR or OS.

Prognostic Factors for 10-Year Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Cancer Receiving Liver Transplantation

Background

Long-term survival after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) continues to increase along with the modification of inclusion criteria. This study aimed at identifying risk factors for 5- and 10-year overall and HCC-specific death after LT.

Methods

A total of 1,854 HCC transplant recipients from 10 European centers during the period 1987-2015 were analyzed. The population was divided in three eras, defined by landmark changes in HCC transplantability indications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the significance of independent risk factors for survival.

Results

Five- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 68.1% and 54.4%, respectively. Two-hundred forty-two patients (13.1%) had HCC recurrence. Five- and 10-year recurrence rates were 16.2% and 20.3%. HCC-related deaths peaked at 2 years after LT (51.1% of all HCC-related deaths) and decreased to a high 30.8% in the interval of 6 to 10 years after LT. The risk factors for 10-year OS were macrovascular invasion (OR = 2.71; P = 0.001), poor grading (OR = 1.56; P = 0.001), HCV status (OR = 1.39; P = 0.001), diameter of the target lesion (OR = 1.09; P = 0.001), AFP slope (OR = 1.63; P = 0.006), and patient age (OR = 0.99; P = 0.01). The risk factor for 10-year HCC-related death were AFP slope (OR = 4.95; P < 0.0001), microvascular (OR = 2.13; P < 0.0001) and macrovascular invasion (OR = 2.32; P = 0.01), poor tumor grading (OR = 1.95; P = 0.001), total number of neo-adjuvant therapies (OR = 1.11; P = 0.001), diameter of the target lesion (OR = 1.11; P = 0.002), and patient age (OR = 0.97; P = 0.001). When analyzing survival rates in function of LT era, a progressive improvement of the results was observed, with patients transplanted during the period 2007-2015 showing 5- and 10-year death rates of 26.8% and 38.9% (vs. 1987-1996, P < 0.0001; vs. 1997-2006, P = 0.005).

Conclusions

LT generates long-term overall and disease-free survival rates superior to all other oncologic treatments of HCC. The role of LT in the modern treatment of HCC becomes even more valued when the follow-up period reaches at least 10 years. The results of LT continue to improve even when prudently widening the inclusion criteria for transplantation. Despite the incidence of HCC recurrence is highest during the first 5 years post-transplant, one-third of them occur later, indicating the importance of a life-long follow-up of these patients.

Progression of AFP SCORE is a Preoperative Predictive Factor of Microvascular Invasion in Selected Patients Meeting Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is one of the main prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), but its occurrence is unpredictable before surgery. The alpha fetoprotein (AFP) model (composite score including size, number, AFP), currently used in France, defines the selection criteria for LT. This study’s aim was to evaluate the preoperative predictive value of AFP SCORE progression on MVI and overall survival during the waiting period for LT. Data regarding LT recipients for HCC from 2007 to 2015 were retrospectively collected from a single institutional database. Among 159 collected cases, 34 patients progressed according to AFP SCORE from diagnosis until LT. MVI was shown to be an independent histopathological prognostic factor according to Cox regression and competing risk analysis in our cohort. AFP SCORE progression was the only preoperative predictive factor of MVI (OR = 10.79 [2.35–49.4]; p 0.002). The 5-year overall survival in the progression and no progression groups was 63.9% vs. 86.3%, respectively (p = 0.001). Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence was significantly different between the progression and no progression groups (Sub-HR = 4.89 [CI 2–11.98]). In selected patients, the progression of AFP SCORE during the waiting period can be a useful preoperative tool to predict MVI.

Prognostic role of selection criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for transplantation if they have a low tumour burden and low risk of recurrence. The morphometric Milan criteria have been the cornerstone for patient selection, but dynamic morphological and biological tumour characteristics surfaced as an encouraging tool to refine the selection of patients with HCC and to support the expansion of the Milan criteria. The outcomes of the most prevalent models that select patients with HCC for liver transplantation were analysed in this study, which aimed to identify the selection model that offered the best recurrence-free and overall survival after transplantation.

METHODS

Studies that compared Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), up-to-seven (UPTS), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and MetroTicket 2.0 (MT2) models were included. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of patients selected for transplantation using different models were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 850 adult patients with HCC selected for liver transplantation using Milan, UCSF, UPTS, AFP, or MT2 criteria were included. Patients selected for transplantation using the MT2 model had the highest 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival. In addition, patients selected for transplantation using MT2 criteria had the best 1- and 3-year overall survival, whereas patients selected for transplantation using the Milan criteria had the best 5-year overall survival rates.

CONCLUSION

The MT2 model offered the best post-transplant outcomes in patients with HCC, highlighting the importance of considering tumour morphology and biology when selecting patients with HCC for liver transplantation.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Currently, most transplant centres worldwide accept patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent successful downstaging. Concurrently, the effectiveness of radiological and systemic therapies used for the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma are increasing. It is now more frequently observed that candidates for liver transplantation have an excellent response to downstaging, even if the baseline stage was well beyond the transplantable tumour. Downstaged patients have a higher risk of dropout from the waiting list and post-transplant recurrence if not transplanted in a short time. Since an increasing number of downstaged patients affects the waitlist dynamics, the definition of upper limits of downstaging is becoming a crucial issue. In this narrative review, we summarise current evidence on the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation, including downstaging of patients with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic metastasis at presentation and employment of the new systemic treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60–70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to “extended” downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Usefulness of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a prognostic predictor after treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma." Review article

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammatory marker which has been investigated as a prognostic indicator in post-therapeutic recurrence and survival of patients with HCC. Our aim was to review all studies that assessed the prognostic value of pre-treatment NLR in predicting patient survival, cancer recurrence, and graft survival in patients undergoing various therapies for HCC. We searched the database of PubMed and Google Scholar to review all studies that have the word "NLR" and the word "HCC." We included all studies that assessed pre-treatment NLR as a prognostic factor in predicting outcomes in HCC patients. We excluded studies that assessed the correlation between post-treatment NLR or dynamic changes in NLR after treatment and HCC outcomes in an effort to minimize the confounding effect of each treatment on NLR. We reviewed 123 studies that studied the correlation between pre-treatment NLR and patient survival, 72 studies that evaluated the correlation between pre-treatment NLR and tumor recurrence, 21 studies that evaluated the correlation between NLR and tumor behavior, and 4 studies that assessed the correlation between NLR and graft survival. We found a remarkable heterogeneity between the methods of the studies, which is likely responsible for the differences in outcomes. The majority of the studies suggested a correlation between higher levels of pre-treatment NLR and poor outcomes. We concluded that NLR is a reliable and inexpensive biomarker and should be incorporated into other prognostic models to help determine outcomes following HCC treatment.

Predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using a novel model that incorporates tumor and donor-related factors

Evidence suggests that liver graft quality impacts on posttransplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As of today, selection criteria only use variables related to tumor characteristics. Within the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2016 (development cohort, n = 10 887). Based on tumor recurrence rates, we fitted a competing-risk regression incorporating tumor- and donor-related factors, and we developed a prognostic score. Results were validated both internally and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry. Total tumor diameter (subhazard ratio [sub-HR] 1.52 [1.28-1.81]), alpha-feto protein (sub-HR 1.27 [1.23-1.32], recipient male gender (sub-HR 1.43 [1.18-1.74]), elevated donor body mass index (sub-HR 1.26 [1.01-1.58]), and shared graft allocation policy (sub-HR 1.20 [1.01-1.43]) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. We next developed the Darlica score (sub-HR 2.72 [2.41-3.08] P < 0.001) that allows identifying risky combinations between a given donor and a given recipient. Results were validated internally (n = 3 629) and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry (n = 370). The current score is based on variables that are readily available at the time of graft offer. It allows identifying hazardous donor-recipient combinations in terms of risk of tumor recurrence and overall survival.

A New Prognostic Algorithm Predicting HCC Recurrence in Patients With Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage B Who Received PA-TACE

Background

Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) is effective in preventing the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients treated with surgery. However, there is a lack of reports studying the risk factors associated with recurrence in HCC patients who received PA-TACE. In this study, we identified the independent risk factors for recurrence of HCC patients who received PA-TACE. We also developed a novel, effective, and valid nomogram to predict the individual probability of recurrence, 1, 3, and 5 years after PA-TACE.

Methods

A retrospective study was performed to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence of HCC in a group of 502 patients diagnosed in stage B based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) evaluation system for HCC that underwent curative resections. Then, subgroup analysis was performed for 184 patients who received PA-TACE, who were included in the training cohort. The other 147 HCC patients were included in a validation cohort. A recurrence-free survival (RFS)-predicting nomogram was constructed, and results were assessed using calibration and decision curves and a time-dependent AUC diagram.

Results

PA-TACE was shown to be a significant independent prognostic value for patients with BCLC stage B [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.508, 95% CI = 0.375–0.689 for OS, p = 0.002; HR = 0.670, 95%CI = 0.517–0.868 for RFS]. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP), tumor number, tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI), and differentiation were considered as independent risk factors for RFS in the training cohort, and these were further confirmed in the validation cohort. Next, a nomogram was constructed to predict RFS. The C-index for RFS in the nomogram was 0.721 (95% CI = 0.718–0.724), which was higher than SNACOR, HAP, and CHIP scores (0.587, 0.573, and 0.607, respectively). Calibration and decision curve analyses and a time-dependent AUC diagram were used. Our nomogram showed stronger performance than these other nomograms in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

HCC patients diagnosed as stage B according to BCLC may benefit from PA-TACE after surgery. The RFS nomogram presented here provides an accurate and reliable prognostic model to monitor recurrence. Patients with a high recurrence score based on the nomogram should receive additional high-end imaging exams and shorter timeframes in between follow-up visits.

Hepatocellular cancer selection systems and liver transplantation: from the tower of babel to an ideal comprehensive score

The Milan criteria (MC) remain the cornerstone for the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) to be listed for liver transplantation (LT). Recently, several expanded criteria have been proposed to increase the transplantability of HCC patients without compromising their (oncologic) outcome. This paper aims to systematically review the different reported HCC-LT selection systems looking thereby at their ability to increase the number of transplantable patients and the overall survival and oncological outcome. A systematic review of the literature covering the period 1993 (date of the first reported HCC-LT selection system)-2021 identified 59 different inclusion criteria of HCC for LT. Among the 59 studies reporting HCC-LT selection systems, 15 (28.3%) were exclusively based on morphological aspects of the tumor; 29 (54.7%) included biologic, seven (13.2%) radiological, and two (3.8%) only included pathological tumor features. Overall, 31% more patients could be transplanted when adhering to the new HCC-LT selection systems. Despite the increased number of LT, 5-year patient and disease-free survival rates were similar between MC-IN and MC-OUT/new HCC-LT-IN criteria. A careful extension of the inclusion criteria should allow many more patients to access a potentially curative LT without compromising their outcome. The development of a widely accepted "comprehensive" HCC-LT Score able to offer a fair chance of justified transplantation to more patients should become a priority within the liver transplant community. Further studies are needed to develop internationally accepted, expanded selection criteria for liver transplantation of HCC patients.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly important indication for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide. However, LT in the setting of liver cancer is burdened by the risk of tumor recurrence. The prognosis of patients with post-LT HCC recurrence is still very poor and several areas of uncertainty remain in the management of these patients. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of available evidence regarding the management of HCC recurrence after LT, starting from the pre- and post-transplant stratification criteria and encompassing post-LT surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment. Much work has been done in the last several years but further effort is still needed in order to improve the outcome of these patients.

Abstract

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), occurring in 10–15% of cases, is a major concern. A lot of work has been done in order to refine the selection of LT candidates with HCC and to improve the outcome of patients with recurrence. Despite this, the prognosis of these patients remains poor, partly due to the several areas of uncertainty in their management. Even if surveillance for HCC recurrence is crucial for early detection, there is currently no evidence to support a specific and cost-effective post-LT surveillance strategy. Concerning preventive measures, consensus on the best immunosuppressive drugs has not been reached and not enough data to support adjuvant therapy are present. Several therapeutic approaches (surgical, locoregional and systemic treatments) are available in case of recurrence, but there are still few data in the post-LT setting. Moreover, the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors is controversial in transplant recipients considered the risk of rejection. In this paper, the available evidence on the management of HCC recurrence after LT is comprehensively reviewed, considering pre- and post-transplant risk stratification, post-transplant surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment options.

Early Versus Late Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Transplantation: Predictive Factors, Patterns, and Long-term Outcome

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently the first indication of liver transplantation (LT) in Europe and Asia-Pacific region and the third in the United States. HCC recurrence is the main complication affecting short- and medium-term outcomes after LT.

METHODS

A total of 433 consecutive adult recipients transplanted for HCC between 2000 and 2017 (mean age: 57.8 ± 8.5 y; 83.8% were males) with a mean follow-up of 74.6 ± 58.6 months were included. Patients had to meet Milan criteria and, since 2014, alpha-fetoprotein score to be listed. Patients with HCC recurrence were classified into early (≤2 y) and late recurrence (>2 y) and were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Patients who developed recurrence (75 patients, 17%) had more tumors outside Milan and University of California San Francisco criteria, high alpha-fetoprotein score, and microvascular invasion at pathology. Early recurrence developed in 46 patients (61.3%); the overall 5- and 10-year survival rates of these patients from time of LT were 6.7% and 0%, which were significantly lower than those with late recurrence 64.0% and 27.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). The median survival times from the diagnosis of HCC recurrence were 15 and 17 months, respectively, in the 2 groups (P < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified alcoholic cirrhosis as etiology of the underlying liver disease (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.074; P = 0.007), bilobar tumor at time of LT (HR = 2.001; P = 0.037), and a tumor size (>50 mm) in the explant (HR = 1.277; P = 0.045) as independent predictors of early recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving the prediction of early HCC recurrence could optimize patient selection for LT, potential adjuvant therapy with new targeted drugs and hence, improve long-term survival.

Dynamic α-Fetoprotein Response and Outcomes After Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Importance

Accurate preoperative prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant is the mainstay of selection tools used by transplant-governing bodies to discern candidacy for patients with HCC. Although progress has been made, few tools incorporate objective measures of tumor biological characteristics, resulting in inclusion of patients with high recurrence rates and exclusion of others who could otherwise be cured.

Objective

To externally validate the New York/California (NYCA) score, a recently published multi-institutional US HCC selection tool that was the first model incorporating a dynamic α-fetoprotein response (AFP-R) and compare the validated score with currently accepted HCC selection tools, namely, the Milan Criteria (MC), the French-AFP (F-AFP), and Metroticket 2.0 models.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective, multicenter prognostic analysis of prospectively collected databases of 2236 adults undergoing liver transplant for HCC was conducted at 3 US, 1 Canadian, and 4 European centers from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2013. The AFP-R was measured as the difference between maximum and final pre-liver transplant AFP level. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk regression analyses examined recurrence-free and overall survival. Receiver operating characteristic analyses and net reclassification index were used to compare NYCA with MC, F-AFP, and Metroticket 2.0. Data analysis was performed from June 2019 to April 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary study outcome was 5-year recurrence-free survival; overall survival was the secondary outcome.

Results

Of 2236 patients, 1808 (80.9%) were men; mean (SD) age was 58.3 (7.96) years. A total of 545 patients (24.4%) did not meet the MC. The NYCA score proved valid on competing risk regression analysis, accurately predicting recurrence-free and overall survival (5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence risk in NYCA risk categories was 9.5% for low-, 20.5%, for acceptable-, and 40.5% for high-risk categories; P < .001 for all). The NYCA also predicted recurrence-free survival on a center-specific level: 453 of 545 patients (83.1%) who did not meet MC, 213 of 308 (69.2%) who did not meet the French-AFP, 292 of 384 (76.1%) who did not meet Metroticket 2.0 would be recategorized into NYCA low- and acceptable-risk groups (>75% 5-year recurrence-free survival). The Harrell C statistic for the validated NYCA score was 0.66 compared with 0.59 for the MC and 0.57 for the F-AFP models (P < .001). The net reclassification index for NYCA was 8.1 vs MC, 12.9 vs F-AFP, and 10.1 vs Metroticket 2.0.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study appears to externally validate the importance of AFP-R in the selection of patients with HCC for liver transplant. The AFP-R represents one of the truly objective measures of biological characteristics available before transplantation. Incorporation of AFP-R into selection criteria allows safe expansion of MC and other models, offering liver transplant to patients with acceptable tumor biological characteristics who would otherwise be denied potential cure.

Liver Living Donation for Cancer Patients: Benefits, Risks, Justification

LDLT covers all standard indications for liver transplantation, and the results are similar or even better than for standard DDLT. Due to the donor shortage and long waiting time, LDLT has become a relevant option for patients with liver tumors, provided the expected five-year survival rate is comparable to that of patients receiving a DDLT. Nowadays, LDLT offers the possibility to extend the standard morphometric selection by considering the biological parameters. In the setting of LDLT, we are not only faced with surgical morbidity in the donor, but long-term non-medical problems like psychological complications and financial burden also have to be considered. On the other hand, the benefits to the donor are mainly social and psychological. In LDLT, the donor's altruism is the fundamental ethical principle and it is based on the principles of (1) beneficence (doing good), (2) non-maleficence (avoiding harm), (3) respect for autonomy, and (4) respect for justice (promoting fairness). On top of that, the concept of double equipoise of living organ donation evaluates the relationship between the recipient's need, the donor's risk, and the recipient's outcome. It considers each donor-recipient pair as a unit, analyzing whether the specific recipient's benefit justifies the specific donor's risk in particular oncologic indications. In this light, it is essential to seek adequate informed consent focused on risk, benefits and outcome benefits of both donor and recipient supported by an independent living donor advocate. Finally, the transplant team must protect donors from donation if harm does not justify the expected benefit to the recipient.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Real-Life Comparison of Milan Criteria and AFP Model

Simple Summary

The α-fetoprotein (AFP) model officially replaced the Milan criteria in France for liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in January 2013. The aim of our retrospective study was to analyze the agreement of the criteria and the results of LT with an intention-to-treat design since the adoption of the AFP model and to compare them to the practice and results of LT before the adoption of the AFP model. We did not observe significant changes in practices in 523 consecutively listed patients, with a good agreement (88%) to AFP criteria on the explants before and after the adoption of the AFP model. However, the prognosis of patients listed in the most recent period was worse, maybe because of a significant increase in bridging treatments and in the waiting time. This observational study provides an insight into the real-life course of LT for HCC.

Abstract

Purpose: To compare the agreement for the criteria on the explant and the results of liver transplantation (LT) before and after adoption of the AFP (α-fetoprotein) model. Methods: 523 patients consecutively listed in five French centers were reviewed to compare results of the Milan criteria period (MilanCP, n = 199) (before 2013) and the AFP score period (AFPscP, n = 324) (after 2013). (NCT03156582). Results: During AFPscP, there was a significantly longer waiting time on the list (12.3 vs. 7.7 months, p < 0.001) and higher rate of bridging therapies (84 vs. 75%, p = 0.012) compared to the MilanCP. Dropout rate was slightly higher in the AFPscP (31 vs. 24%, p = 0.073). No difference was found in the histological AFP score between groups (p = 0.838) with a global agreement in 88% of patients. Post-LT recurrence was 9.2% in MilanCP vs. 13.2% in AFPscP (p = 0.239) and predictive factors were AFP > 2 on the last imaging, downstaging policy and salvage transplantation. Post-LT survival was similar (83 vs. 87% after 2 years, p = 0.100), but after propensity score analysis, the post-listing overall survival (OS) was worse in the AFPscP (HR 1.45, p = 0.045). Conclusions: Agreement for the AFP model on explant analysis (≤2) did not significantly change. AFP score > 2 was the major prognostic factor for recurrence. Graft allocation policy has a major impact on prognosis, with a post-listing OS significantly decreased, probably due to the increase in waiting time, increase in bridging therapies, downstaging policy and salvage transplantation.

Socioeconomic Deprivation Does Not Impact Liver Transplantation Outcome for HCC: A Survival Analysis From a National Database

BACKGROUND

To investigate the value of European deprivation index (EDI) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) characteristics and their relationships with outcome after liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Patients undergoing LT for HCC were included from a national database (from "Agence de la Biomédecine" between 2006 and 2016. Characteristics of the patients were blindly extracted from the database. Thus, EDI was calculated in 5 quintiles and prognosis factors of survival were determined according to a Cox model.

RESULTS

Among the 3865 included patients, 33.9% were in the fifth quintile (quintile 1, N = 562 [14.5%]; quintile 2, N = 647 [16.7%]; quintile 3, N = 654 [16.9%]; quintile 4, N = 688 [17.8%]). Patients in each quintile were comparable regarding HCC history, especially median size of HCC, number of nodules of HCC and alpha-fetoprotein score. In the univariate analysis of the crude survival, having >2 nodules of HCC before LT and time on waiting list were associated with a higher risk of death (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.03, respectively). EDI, size of HCC, model for end-stage liver disease score, Child-Pugh score were not statistically significant in the crude and net survival. In both survival, time on waiting list and number of HCC ≥2 were independent factor of mortality after LT for HCC (P = 0.009 and 0.001, respectively, and P = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

EDI does not impact overall survival after LT for HCC. Number of HCC and time on waiting list are independent prognostic factors of survival after LT for HCC.

Number of hepatocellular carcinoma nodules in patients listed for liver transplantation within alpha-fetoprotein score: a new prognostic risk factor

In France, the listing for liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) requires an AFP score ≤2. This study evaluates whether the number of nodules assessed immediately before LT has a prognostic value among patients already listed within AFP score. Among 143 recipients transplanted with an AFP score ≤2 between 2013 and 2017 in our center, the number of nodules was considered at listing on the waiting list and at last imaging before LT. We compared the overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) post-LT of patients with ≤3 and >3 nodules (current classification), and aimed to propose a new criteria to exclude patients on list at high risk of recurrence. The 3-year OS of patients with ≤3 HCC vs. >3 HCC at listing was of 90.3% vs. 67.3%, respectively (P = 0.04). At last imaging, eight listed patients presented ≥5 HCC nodules and had a significantly lower OS than <5 nodules patients (5-year OS: 24.4% vs. 78.1%; P = 0.01). Although the current AFP score offers satisfactory outcomes, we highlight the poorer outcomes when ≥5 nodules persist or appear after listing. A modification of the AFP score is mandatory to consider exclusion of high-risk patients already listed for LT program.

Ideal Surgical Margin to Prevent Early Recurrence After Hepatic Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

Postoperative early recurrence after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) poses a challenge to surgeons, and the effect of a surgical margin is still controversial. This study aimed to identify an ideal margin to prevent early recurrence.

METHODS

A total of 226 consecutive patients who underwent primary curative hepatic resection for solitary and primary HCC were enrolled. The definition of early recurrence was determined using the minimum P value approach. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of early recurrence. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off of the surgical margin and early recurrence.

RESULTS

Recurrence within 8 months induced the poorest overall survival (P = 2×10^-15). ROC analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of the surgical margin was 7 mm. The risk factors of early recurrence (≤ 8-month recurrence) were preoperative alpha-fetoprotein levels ≥ 100 ng/ml (Odds ratio [OR] 4.92 [2.28-10.77], P < 0.0001) and a surgical margin < 7 mm (OR 3.09 [1.26-8.85], P = 0.01) by multivariable analysis. The probability of early recurrence ranged from 5.0% in the absence of any factors to 43.5% in the presence of both factors. Among patients with alpha-fetoprotein levels ≥ 100 ng/ml, non-capsule formation, or microvascular invasion, there was a significant difference in 5-year overall survival between surgical margins of < 7 mm and ≥ 7 mm.

CONCLUSIONS

A > 7-mm margin is important to prevent early recurrence. Patients with HCC and alpha-fetoprotein levels > 100 ng/ml, non-capsule formation, or microvascular invasion may have a survival benefit from a ≥ 7-mm margin.

High pre-treatment static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein values predict reduced overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide. Novel prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to improve patient management. Alpha-fetoprotein is a well-established and widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, diagnostic accuracy of static alpha-fetoprotein values is limited and the clinical potential is a matter of ongoing scientific discussion.

OBJECTIVE

We here evaluated the prognostic impact of pre-treatment static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables on overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in a Western cohort.

METHODS

Patients with confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 809) treated at the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz between 1998 and 2014 and two available pre-treatment alpha-fetoprotein-values (AFP-slope) were retrospectively analysed. Clinico-pathological baseline parameters, pre-treatment static values and AFP-slope were assessed. Prognostic impact was determined by Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

High static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables prior to therapy were associated with reduced survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Several known clinical parameters such as Child-Pugh B (p < 0.01) and C stage (p < 0.001), portal vein thrombosis (p < 0.001) and extrahepatic spread (p < 0.001) were confirmed as independent predictors for overall survival. Addition of static and/or dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variable resulted in higher time-dependent area under the curves. Notably, in patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP-slope prior to therapy was a slightly stronger predictor for overall survival compared with static alpha-fetoprotein values.

CONCLUSION

Static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables prior to therapy are predictive for overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Addition of AFP-slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with preserved liver function and without portal vein tumour thrombosis.

TP53 R249S mutation detected in circulating tumour DNA is associated with Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with or without hepatectomy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Somatic mutation R249S in TP53 is highly common in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aim to investigate the effects of R249S in ctDNA on the prognosis of HCC.

METHODS

We analysed three cohorts including 895 HCC patients. TP53 mutation spectrum was examined by direct sequencing of genomic DNA from tissue specimens in HCC patients with hepatectomy (Cohort 1, N = 260). R249S and other recurrent missense mutations were assessed for their biological functions and associations with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of HCC patients in Cohort 1. R249S within circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) was detected through droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) and its association with OS and PRS was analysed in HCC patients with (Cohort 2, N = 275) or without (Cohort 3, N = 360) hepatectomy.

RESULTS

In Cohort 1, R249S occupied 60.28% of all TP53 mutations. Overexpression of R249S induced more serious malignant phenotypes than those of the other three identified TP53 recurrent missense mutations. Additionally, R249S, but not other missense mutations, was significantly associated with worse OS (P = .006) and PFS (P = .01) of HCC patients. Consistent with the results in Cohort 1, HCC patients in Cohorts 2 and 3 with R249S had worse OS (P = 8.291 × 10^-7 and 2.608 × 10^-7 in Cohorts 2 and 3, respectively) and PFS (P = 5.115 × 10^-7 and 5.900 × 10^-13 in Cohorts 2 and 3, respectively) compared to those without this mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

TP53 R249S mutation in ctDNA may serve as a promising prognosis biomarker for HCC patients with or without hepatectomy.

A 2020 update on liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most frequent liver tumor and is associated with chronic liver disease in 90% of cases. In selected cases, liver transplantation represents an effective therapy with excellent overall survival.

AREA COVERED

Since the introduction of Milan criteria in 1996, numerous alternative selection systems to LT for HCC patients have been proposed. Debate remains about how best to select HCC patients for transplant and how to prioritize them on the waiting list.

EXPERT OPINION

The selection of the best scoring system to propose in the context of LT for HCC is far to be identified. In this review, we analyze and categorize the various selection systems, assessing their roles in the different decisional phases.

Evaluation of the Alpha-Fetoprotein Model for Predicting Recurrence and Survival in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus (HBV)-Related Cirrhosis Who Received Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Introduction: The alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model is superior to the Milan criteria in predicting the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation in European and Latin American populations. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive value of the AFP model in Chinese hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis HCC patients. Methods: A total of 189 patients with HBV-related cirrhotic HCC were included. The recurrence rate and survival rate were estimated, and predictability was assessed by the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) method. Results: Of the 189 patients, patients with an AFP score >2 had a higher recurrence rate at 5 years (48.94 vs. 13.53%, p < 0.05) and lower survival rate (43.96 vs. 68.97%, p < 0.05). Considering patients within the Milan criteria, a higher 5-year recurrence rate and lower survival rate were observed in patients with an AFP model score >2 points compared to patients with a score of ≤ 2 points (recurrence rate: 58.75 vs. 12.98%, p < 0.05; survival rate: 28.57 vs. 67.41%, p = 0.047). NRI analysis showed that the AFP model exhibited superior predictability as compared to the Milan criteria. Conclusions: The AFP model may be used as a selection tool for Chinese HBV patients who require liver transplantation due to HCC.

Predictors of outcome after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria

The Milan criteria have been the cornerstone of selection policies for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation (LT) globally for over two decades. Many groups have proposed the transplantation of patients with larger and more numerous tumors achieving comparable results. Many of these use radiologic morphometric criteria as surrogates for explant pathology to predict outcomes. Several other indices have been developed both within and beyond Milan incorporating biological indices as well as dynamic markers of response to pre-transplant locoregional treatments and waiting time. These have allowed for successful expansion of transplant selection criteria without compromising outcomes with limited organ supplies. In this review we will discuss the predictors of outcome in patients beyond Milan criteria.

SCCA-IgM in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization: gender-related differences

Aim: Squamous cell carcinoma antigen immune complexed with immunoglobulin M (SCCA-IgM) is a useful but not completely satisfactory biomarker of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Considering its gender-specific behavior in preclinical models, we investigated gender-related differences of SCCA-IgM as a prognostic marker in HCC. Patients & methods: Two hundred and eight prospectively recruited patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization in a single tertiary care hospital were retrospectively evaluated. Correlations between SCCA-IgM levels, clinical characteristics and survival were assessed according to gender. Results: When the disease was advanced, SCCA-IgM was higher in males and lower in females. Levels below 130 AU/ml predicted a significantly longer survival in males (p = 0.007) and a shorter survival in females (p = 0.01). Conclusion: In predicting the prognosis of HCC patients, the interpretation of SCCA-IgM should consider gender as a relevant variable.

Changes in Tumor Markers and Their Implications in Selecting Liver Transplantation for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

It has been suggested that tumor markers can provide additional information over tumor size and number-based liver transplantation (LT) criteria. We aimed to assess if changes in tumor markers are associated with the risk of tumor recurrence after LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received loco-regional therapies (LRTs).

METHODS

A total of 129 patients who received LT with pre-LT LRTs for HCC were analyzed. Milan criteria and tumor markers, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K antagonist II, at diagnosis and at transplant were assessed. The primary outcome was tumor recurrence.

RESULTS

When patients were stratified by radiologic criteria, cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years for patients who were not down-staged (outside Milan to outside Milan), progressed (within Milan to outside Milan), down-staged (outside Milan to within Milan), and bridged (within Milan to within Milan) were 66.7%, 58.3%, 18.7%, and 8.5%, respectively (P < .001). Among patients who were transplanted within Milan criteria at transplant (n = 113), cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years were highest for those with persistently high tumor markers (high to high, 21.7%), followed by those with increase in tumor markers (low to high, 11.1%), those with normalization of tumor markers (high to low, 5.6%), and those with persistently low tumor markers (low to low, 0%), respectively, after LRTs (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes of tumor markers can provide additional information on the risk of recurrence after LT among HCC patients who received LRTs, indicating that they could be used to refine current LT selection criteria.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Management after the transplant

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly common indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States and in many parts of the world. In the last decade, significant work has been done to better understand how to risk stratify LT candidates for recurrence of HCC following transplant using a combination of biomarker and imaging findings. However, despite the high frequency of HCC in the LT population, guidance regarding posttransplant management is lacking. In particular, there is no current evidence to support specific post-LT surveillance strategies, leading to significant heterogeneity in practices. In addition, there are no current recommendations regarding recurrence prevention, including immunosuppression regimen or secondary prevention with adjuvant chemotherapy. Finally, guidance on treatment of disease recurrence is also lacking and there is significant controversy about the use of immunotherapy in transplant recipients due to the risk of rejection. Thus, outcomes for patients with recurrence are poor. This paper therefore provides a comprehensive review of the current literature on post-LT management of patients with HCC and identifies gaps in our current knowledge that are in urgent need of further investigation.

Biology and significance of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths globally due, in part, to the majority of patients being diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage disease. Our increased understanding of the heterogeneous molecular pathogenesis of HCC has led to significant developments in novel targeted therapies. Despite these advances, there remains a high unmet need for new treatment options. HCC is a complex disease with multiple pathogenic mechanisms caused by a variety of risk factors, making it difficult to characterize with a single biomarker. In fact, numerous biomarkers have been studied in HCC, but alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most widely used and accepted serum marker since its discovery over 60 years ago. This review summarizes the most relevant studies associated with the regulation of AFP at the gene and protein levels; the pathophysiology of AFP as a pro-proliferative protein; and the correlation of AFP with molecular HCC subclasses, the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and angiogenesis. Also described are the historical and current uses of AFP for screening and surveillance, diagnosis, its utility as a prognostic and predictive biomarker and its role as a tumour antigen in HCC. Taken together, these data demonstrate the relevance of AFP for patients with HCC and identify several remaining questions that will benefit from future research.

Extended criteria for liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma. A retrospective, multicentric validation study in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Recent studies indicate that a group of patients with cirrhosis receiving a liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) beyond the Milan Criteria (MC) can achieve a similar outcome compared to patients within these criteria. This study aims to investigate the value of the Asan critera (AC), up-to-7 criteria (UT7), French alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and Metroticket 2.0 (MT2.0) model compared to the MC.

METHODS

526 patients transplanted for non-metastatic HCC were analyzed. Patient groups within and beyond MC and extended criteria were determined according to radiological assessment and AFP value at listing.

RESULTS

Overall survival (OS) and recurrence (RR) rates were similar between patients within MC and all extended criteria. Five-year OS within MC was 71.3% compared to 70.9% for AC, 71.4% for UT7, 69.7% for AFP-model and 71.0% for MT2.0 criteria. Five-year RR within MC was 12.3% compared to 13.5% for AC, 13.0% for UT7, 14.3% for AFP-model and 13.2% for MT2.0 criteria. Patients beyond MC but within the extended criteria had tendency towards higher recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

All validated extended criteria (AC, UT7, AFP-model and MT2.0) could be proposed as alternatives to the MC with similar outcome. Prospective data are awaited to assess recurrence beyond MC.

Comparison of Models for Tumor Recurrence after Liver Transplantation for the Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Long-Term Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several models have been developed to predict tumor the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation besides the conventional Milan criteria (MC), including the MoRAL score. This study aimed to compare the prognostication power of the MoRAL score to most models designed so far in the Eastern and Western countries.

METHODS

This study included 564 patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in three large-volume hospitals in Korea. The primary and secondary endpoints were time-to-recurrence, and overall survival (OS), respectively. The performance of the MoRAL score was compared with those of other various Liver transplantation (LT) criteria, including the Milan criteria, University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, up-to-seven criteria, Kyoto criteria, AFP model, total tumor volume/AFP criteria, Metroticket 2.0 model, and Weill Cornell Medical College group model.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 78.1 months. Among all models assessed, the MoRAL score showed the best discrimination function for predicting the risk of tumor recurrence after LT, with c-index of 0.78, compared to other models (all p < 0.001). The MoRAL score also represented the best calibration function by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.15). Especially in the beyond-MC sub-cohort, the MoRAL score predicted tumor recurrence (c-index, 0.80) and overall survival (OS) (c-index, 0.70) significantly better than any other models (all p < 0.001). When the MoRAL score was low (<314.8), the five-year cumulative risks of tumor recurrence and death were excellent in beyond-MC (27.8%, and 20.5%, respectively) and within-MC (16.3%, and 21.1%, respectively) sub-cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The MoRAL score provides the most refined prognostication for predicting HCC recurrence after LDLT.

Is it Time to Abandon the Milan Criteria?: Results of a Bicoastal US Collaboration to Redefine Hepatocellular Carcinoma Liver Transplantation Selection Policies

OBJECTIVES

European liver transplant (LT) centers have moved away from using the Milan Criteria (MC) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient selection, turning to models including tumor biological indices, namely alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). We present the first US model to incorporate an AFP response (AFP-R), with comparisons to MC and French-AFP models (F-AFP).

METHODS

AFP-R was measured as differences between maximum and final pre-LT AFP in HCC patients undergoing LT at 3 US centers (2001 to 2013). Cox and competing risk-regression analyses identified predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Of 1450 patients, 235 (16.2%) were outside MC. Tumor size, number, and AFP-R were independent predictors of RFS and were assigned weighted points based on Cox-regression analysis. An AFP-R consistently < 200 ng/mL predicted the best outcome. A 3-tiered competing-risk RFS model, the New York/California (NYCA) score, was developed, accurately discriminating between groups (P < 0.001), and correlating with overall survival (P < 0.001). Two hundred one of 235 patients outside MC (85.5%) would be recategorized into NYCA low/acceptable-risk groups. The c-statistic for our NYCA score is 0.731 compared with 0.613 for MC and 0.658 for F-AFP (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Incorporation of AFP-R into HCC selection criteria allows for MC expansion. As United Network for Organ Sharing considers adding AFP to selection algorithms, the NYCA score provides an objective, user-friendly tool for centers to appropriately risk-stratify patients.

2018 Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer globally and the fourth most common cancer in men in Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle-aged and elderly patients. These practice guidelines will provide useful and constructive advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 44 experts in hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology in the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2014 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions.

Impact of albumin-bilirubin grade on survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who received sorafenib: An analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade was developed as a new method to assess hepatic function. Sorafenib has been confirmed to be effective in improving survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we investigated the impact of ALBI grade versus Child-Pugh classification on survival in HCC patients who received sorafenib.

METHODS

A total of 567 patients with advanced HCC who received sorafenib were included. We analyzed survival based on Child-Pugh classification or score and ALBI grade or score. We also compared the ability of ALBI and Child-Pugh scores to predict survival using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

Cumulative survival rates at 90, 180, 360, and 720 days were 84.1%, 66.6%, 47.0%, and 23.3%, respectively. Median survival was 316 days (95% confidence interval, 279-377). Both Child-Pugh classification and ALBI grade were independently associated with overall survival in multivariate analyses. In addition, overall survival differed significantly between patients with ALBI grades 1 and 2 (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.92, P = 0.011) among patients with a Child-Pugh score of 5. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that ALBI score predicted overall survival better than Child-Pugh score.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin-bilirubin grade is a better predictor of survival in patients with advanced HCC who received sorafenib therapy than Child-Pugh classification.

2018 Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer globally and the fourth most common cancer in men in Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle-aged and elderly patients. These practice guidelines will provide useful and constructive advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 44 experts in hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology and radiation oncology in the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2014 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions.

Reappraisal of Failures in Downstaging Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prior to Liver Transplant-Preliminary Report on the Impact of Underestimations of Tumor Numbers and Tumor Sizes as Measured From Imaging Before Transplant

Downstaging treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prior to liver transplant (LT) is an accepted strategy to meet the Milan criteria. However, after transplant surgery, a reality is noted that the number or/and the size of some HCCs measured from the liver explants is different from that measured from the pre-LT imaging. If tumor number or tumor size measured from the liver explants was beyond that measured from pre-LT imaging, we define it as "failed downstaging." Among 27 patients who received downstaging therapies, there are 11 "number reduction failures" and 6 "size reduction failures." We attribute the discrepancy to 2 possible reasons; one is that the pre-LT imaging after downstaging could not completely detect all the HCC; the other is that the time interval between the downstaging and LT is long enough to develop new HCCs. After follow-up, 6 patients developed HCC recurrence. The significant factors affecting recurrence include tumor size from postdownstaging imaging (P = .048), tumor number ≥ 2 (P = .007), multiple sessions of downstaging (P = .03), ratio of neutrophil to lymphocyte (P = .047), and tumor number from liver explant (borderline P = .05). Tumor recurrence after LT is significantly higher in those with "size reduction failure" (P = .048). The interval between LT and tumor recurrence is significantly shorter in those with "size reduction failure" (P = .04). To decrease underestimations of HCC, combining various imaging studies including the computed tomographic scan, magnetic resonance imaging, and contrast ultrasonography is needed to increase the accuracy before LT. Repeated imaging studies at short intervals of no more than 3 months are necessary during a long wait. How to minimize the underestimations of HCC to determine the appropriate candidacy for LT is an important goal for transplantation surgeons.

Underlying liver disease and advanced stage liver cancer are associated with elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio

Background/Aims

Inflammation-based scores, such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), have been associated with prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); but variable cut-off values and potential lack of specificity have limited the utility of NLR. This study evaluates NLR in a large cohort of HCC patients.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 789 HCC cases (1993–2017) for demographics, tumor characteristics, treatment, and survival. NLR was stratified into NLR ≥1.5 and NLR ≥3 and analyzed for correlation with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages. In 235 patients who underwent liver resection, survival and recurrence were evaluated by NLR.

Results

In 789 HCC cases, mean NLR was increased with advanced AJCC and BCLC stages. Hepatitis C patients were less likely to have NLR ≥1.5 and ≥3. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis patients were more likely to have NLR ≥3. Patients with tumor size >5 cm, rupture, or macrovascular invasion were more likely to have NLR ≥3. In patients treated with resection, NLR ≥3 predicted early recurrence (odds ratio [OR] 4.14, P<0.01) and overall recurrence (OR 4.05, P<0.01). Mean NLR was 4.30 in those with recurrence and 2.75 in those without recurrence. Patients with NLR ≥3 showed significantly worse survival compared to those with NLR <3 (P<0.01 by log-rank test).

Conclusions

Elevated NLR is associated with advanced cancer stage and aggressive tumor characteristics, such as large size, rupture, and invasion. NLR ≥3 was associated with early and overall recurrence after resection but varied with etiology. NLR may be a useful biomarker in predicting recurrence for HCC patients undergoing curative resection, but further studies are required to elucidate the effect of disease etiology.