Specialist predator in a multi-species prey community: boreal voles and weasels

Predator-prey interactions in the canopy

Small mammal abundances are frequently limited by resource availability, but predators can exert strong lethal (mortality) and nonlethal (e.g., nest abandonment) limitations. Artificially increasing resource availability for uncommon small mammals provides a unique opportunity to examine predator-prey interactions. We used remote cameras to monitor 168 nest platforms placed in the live tree canopy (n = 23 young forest stands), primarily for arboreal red tree voles (tree voles; Arborimus longicaudus), over 3 years (n = 15,510 monitoring-weeks). Tree voles frequently built nests and were detected 37% of monitoring-weeks, whereas flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) built nests infrequently but were detected 45% of monitoring-weeks. Most nest predators were detected infrequently (<1% of monitoring-weeks) and were positively correlated with tree vole presence. Weasels (Mustela spp.) were highly effective predators of tree voles (n = 8 mortalities; 10% of detections) compared to owls (n = 1), flying squirrels (n = 2), and Steller's jays (n = 1). Tree vole activity decreased from 84.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.2, 111.9) detections/week 1-week prior to a weasel detection to 4.7 detections/week (95% CI: 1.7, 7.8) 1-week postdetection and remained low for at least 12 weeks. Interpretations of predator-prey interactions were highly sensitive to how we binned continuously collected data and model results from our finest bin width were biologically counter-intuitive. Average annual survival of female tree voles was consistent with a previous study (0.14; 95% CI: -0.04 [0.01], 0.32) and high compared to many terrestrial voles. The relative infrequency of weasel detections and inefficiency of other predators did not provide strong support for the hypothesis that predation per se limited populations. Rather, predation pressure, by reducing occupancy of already scarce nest sites through mortality and nest abandonment, may contribute to long-term local instability of tree vole populations in young forests. Additional monitoring would be needed to assess this hypothesis.

Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey

Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.

Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: what happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?

Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and a challenge for individual behavior, interactions and survival. Predator–prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes, strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3–5‐year cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels through the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by climate change, and especially the changes in the duration and stability of snow cover. For ground‐dwelling small mammals, snow provides thermoregulation and shelter for nest sites, and helps them hide from predators. Predicted increases in the instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong‐colored weasels to predation affects vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects on other small rodent–predator interactions and even on plant–animal interactions and forest dynamics.

Expression levels of MHC class I molecules are inversely correlated with promiscuity of peptide binding

Highly polymorphic major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules are at the heart of adaptive immune responses, playing crucial roles in many kinds of disease and in vaccination. We report that breadth of peptide presentation and level of cell surface expression of class I molecules are inversely correlated in both chickens and humans. This relationship correlates with protective responses against infectious pathogens including Marek's disease virus leading to lethal tumours in chickens and human immunodeficiency virus infection progressing to AIDS in humans. We propose that differences in peptide binding repertoire define two groups of MHC class I molecules strategically evolved as generalists and specialists for different modes of pathogen resistance. We suggest that differences in cell surface expression level ensure the development of optimal peripheral T cell responses. The inverse relationship of peptide repertoire and expression is evidently a fundamental property of MHC molecules, with ramifications extending beyond immunology and medicine to evolutionary biology and conservation.

Demographic responses of a site-faithful and territorial predator to its fluctuating prey: long-tailed skuas and arctic lemmings

Environmental variability, through interannual variation in food availability or climatic variables, is usually detrimental to population growth. It can even select for constancy in key life-history traits, though some exceptions are known. Changes in the level of environmental variability are therefore important to predict population growth or life-history evolution. Recently, several cyclic vole and lemming populations have shown large dynamical changes that might affect the demography or life-histories of rodent predators. Skuas constitute an important case study among rodent predators, because of their strongly saturating breeding productivity (they lay only two eggs) and high degree of site fidelity, in which they differ from nomadic predators raising large broods in good rodent years. This suggests that they cannot capitalize on lemming peaks to the same extent as nomadic predators and might be more vulnerable to collapses of rodent cycles. We develop a model for the population dynamics of long-tailed skuas feeding on lemmings to assess the demographic consequences of such variable and non-stationary prey dynamics, based on data collected in NE Greenland. The model shows that populations of long-tailed skua sustain well changes in lemming dynamics, including temporary collapses (e.g. 10 years). A high floater-to-breeder ratio emerges from rigid territorial behaviour and a long-life expectancy, which buffers the impact of adult abundance's decrease on the population reproductive output. The size of the floater compartment is affected by changes in both mean and coefficient of variation of lemming densities (but not cycle amplitude and periodicity per se). In Greenland, the average lemming density is below the threshold density required for successful breeding (including during normally cyclic periods). Due to Jensen's inequality, skuas therefore benefit from lemming variability; a positive effect of environmental variation. Long-tailed skua populations are strongly adapted to fluctuating lemming populations, an instance of demographic lability in the reproduction rate. They are also little affected by poor lemming periods, if there are enough floaters, or juveniles disperse to neighbouring populations. The status of Greenland skua populations therefore strongly depends upon floater numbers and juvenile movements, which are not known. This reveals a need to intensify colour-ringing efforts on the long-tailed skua at a circumpolar scale.

Mammalian predator-prey interaction in a fragmented landscape: weasels and voles

The relationship between predators and prey is thought to change due to habitat loss and fragmentation, but patterns regarding the direction of the effect are lacking. The common prediction is that specialized predators, often more dependent on a certain habitat type, should be more vulnerable to habitat loss compared to generalist predators, but actual fragmentation effects are unknown. If a predator is small and vulnerable to predation by other larger predators through intra-guild predation, habitat fragmentation will similarly affect both the prey and the small predator. In this case, the predator is predicted to behave similarly to the prey and avoid open and risky areas. We studied a specialist predator's, the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis, spacing behavior and hunting efficiency on bank voles, Myodes glareolus, in an experimentally fragmented habitat. The habitat consisted of either one large habitat patch (non-fragmented) or four small habitat patches (fragmented) with the same total area. The study was replicated in summer and autumn during a year with high avian predation risk for both voles and weasels. As predicted, weasels under radio-surveillance killed more voles in the non-fragmented habitat which also provided cover from avian predators during their prey search. However, this was only during autumn, when the killing rate was also generally high due to cold weather. The movement areas were the same for both sexes and both fragmentation treatments, but weasels of both sexes were more prone to take risks in crossing the open matrix in the fragmented treatment. Our results support the hypothesis that habitat fragmentation may increase the persistence of specialist predator and prey populations if predators are limited in the same habitat as their prey and they share the same risk from avian predation.