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Jepsen JU, Vindstad OPL, Ims RA. Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrid outbreaks. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2023; 55:100990. [PMID: 36436809 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2022.100990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
We highlight recent developments and avenues for advancement, which can improve insight into the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (hereafter 'geometrids'). Some forest geometrids possess fundamental biological traits, which make them particularly liable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts mitigated by climate change. Indeed, recently observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics represent both new research opportunities and challenges for empirically testing drivers of intra- and interspecific spatial synchrony, including the role of trophic interactions and biological traits (e.g. dispersal ability). We advocate that the emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting holds promise for studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrids and could be tailored to give both accurate predictions at management-relevant timescales and new insights into the mechanisms that underlie spatiotemporal population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane U Jepsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Department of Arctic Ecology, Fram Centre, P.O. Box 6606 Langnes, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Ole Petter L Vindstad
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, P.O. Box 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Rolf A Ims
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, P.O. Box 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
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2
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Dallas TA, Antão LH, Pöyry J, Leinonen R, Ovaskainen O. Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20200684. [PMID: 32453988 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatially distinct pairs of sites may have similarly fluctuating population dynamics across large geographical distances, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. However, species rarely exist in isolation, but rather as members of interactive communities, linked with other communities through dispersal (i.e. a metacommunity). Using data on Finnish moth communities sampled across 65 sites for 20 years, we examine the complex synchronous/anti-synchronous relationships among sites using the geography of synchrony framework. We relate site-level synchrony to mean and temporal variation in climatic data, finding that colder and drier sites-and those with the most drastic temperature increases-are important for spatial synchrony. This suggests that faster-warming sites contribute most strongly to site-level estimates of synchrony, highlighting the role of a changing climate to spatial synchrony. Considering the spatial variability in climate change rates is therefore important to understand metacommunity dynamics and identify habitats which contribute most strongly to spatial synchrony.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tad A Dallas
- Department of Biological Science, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.,Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland
| | - Laura H Antão
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Biodiversity Centre, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Reima Leinonen
- Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, PO Box 115, FI-87101 Kajaani, Finland
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
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3
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Vindstad OPL, Jepsen JU, Yoccoz NG, Bjørnstad ON, Mesquita MDS, Ims RA. Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages. J Anim Ecol 2019; 88:1134-1145. [PMID: 30737772 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Accepted: 12/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jane Uhd Jepsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Nigel Gilles Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø - The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ottar N Bjørnstad
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - Michel D S Mesquita
- Future Solutions, Mosterhamn, Norway.,Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Rolf Anker Ims
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø - The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
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Reeve JD. Synchrony, Weather, and Cycles in Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY 2018; 47:19-25. [PMID: 29145595 DOI: 10.1093/ee/nvx159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2017] [Accepted: 10/26/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Spatial synchrony and cycles are common features of forest insect pests, but are often studied as separate phenomenon. Using time series of timber damage caused by Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (southern pine beetle) in 10 states within the southern United States, this study examines synchrony in D. frontalis abundance, the synchronizing effects of temperature extremes, and the evidence for shared cycles among state populations. Cross-correlation and cluster analyses are used to quantify synchrony across a range of geographic distances and to identify groups of states with synchronous dynamics. Similar techniques are used to quantify spatial synchrony in temperature extremes and to examine their relationship to D. frontalis fluctuations. Cross-wavelet analysis is then used to examine pairs of time series for shared cycles. These analyses suggest there is substantial synchrony among states in D. frontalis fluctuations, and there are regional groups of states with similar dynamics. Synchrony in D. frontalis fluctuations also appears related to spatial synchrony in summer and winter temperature extremes. The cross-wavelet results suggest that D. frontalis dynamics may differ among regions and are not stationary. Significant oscillations were present in some states over certain time intervals, suggesting an endogenous feedback mechanism. Management of D. frontalis outbreaks could potentially benefit from a multistate regional approach because populations are synchronous on this level. Extreme summer temperatures are likely to become the most important synchronizing agent due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- John D Reeve
- Department of Zoology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL
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5
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Lund M, Raundrup K, Westergaard-Nielsen A, López-Blanco E, Nymand J, Aastrup P. Larval outbreaks in West Greenland: Instant and subsequent effects on tundra ecosystem productivity and CO 2 exchange. AMBIO 2017; 46:26-38. [PMID: 28116687 PMCID: PMC5258657 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-016-0863-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Insect outbreaks can have important consequences for tundra ecosystems. In this study, we synthesise available information on outbreaks of larvae of the noctuid moth Eurois occulta in Greenland. Based on an extensive dataset from a monitoring programme in Kobbefjord, West Greenland, we demonstrate effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO2 exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118-143 g C m-2, corresponding to 1210-1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years by increased primary production, probably facilitated by the larval outbreak increasing nutrient turnover rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate for the first time in tundra ecosystems, the potential for using remote sensing to detect and map insect outbreak events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Magnus Lund
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Katrine Raundrup
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Kivioq 2, P.O. Box 570, 3900 Nuuk, Greenland
| | - Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), University of Copenhagen, Oestervoldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Efrén López-Blanco
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Josephine Nymand
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Kivioq 2, P.O. Box 570, 3900 Nuuk, Greenland
| | - Peter Aastrup
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
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6
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Tenow O. A response to Jepsenet al. (2016). J Anim Ecol 2016; 85:391-5. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2015] [Accepted: 11/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Olle Tenow
- Department of Ecology; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; P.O. Box 7044, SE-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
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7
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Tenow O. Discovery of continental-scale travelling waves and lagged synchrony in geometrid moth outbreaks prompt a re-evaluation of mountain birch/geometrid studies. F1000Res 2014; 2:128. [PMID: 24555061 PMCID: PMC3892914 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.2-128.v2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/04/2013] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The spatio-temporal dynamics of populations of two 9-10 year cyclic-outbreaking geometrids,
Operophtera brumata and
Epirrita autumnata in mountain birch forests in northern Fennoscandia, have been studied since the 1970´s by a Swedish-Norwegian research team and, during the last decade, by Norwegian and Finnish research teams. Some of the early results have been challenged by the Norwegian team. To examine the base for disagreements, five of the papers published by the Norwegian team (2004-2011) are reviewed. It is found that conclusions in these papers are questionable or data could not be interpreted fully because two decisive traits in the spatio-temporal behaviour of outbreaks of the two species were not considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olle Tenow
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden
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8
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Myers JH, Cory JS. Population Cycles in Forest Lepidoptera Revisited. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2013. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Judith H. Myers
- Department of Zoology, and Biodiversity Research Center, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4;
| | - Jenny S. Cory
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6;
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9
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Sherratt JA. Generation of periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations by hostile boundaries. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2013. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2012.0756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Many recent datasets on cyclic populations reveal spatial patterns with the form of periodic travelling waves (wavetrains). Mathematical modelling has identified a number of potential causes of this spatial organization, one of which is a hostile habitat boundary. In this paper, the author investigates the member of the periodic travelling wave family selected by such a boundary in models of reaction–diffusion type. Using a predator–prey model as a case study, the author presents numerical evidence that the wave generated by a hostile (zero-Dirichlet) boundary condition is the same as that generated by fixing the population densities at their coexistence steady-state levels. The author then presents analysis showing that the two waves are the same, in general, for oscillatory reaction–diffusion models with scalar diffusion close to Hopf bifurcation. This calculation yields a general formula for the amplitude, speed and wavelength of these waves. By combining this formula with established results on periodic travelling wave stability, the author presents a division of parameter space into regions in which a hostile boundary will generate periodic travelling waves, spatio-temporal disorder or a mixture of the two.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A. Sherratt
- Department of Mathematics and Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK
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Tenow O, Nilssen AC, Bylund H, Pettersson R, Battisti A, Bohn U, Caroulle F, Ciornei C, Csóka G, Delb H, De Prins W, Glavendekić M, Gninenko YI, Hrašovec B, Matošević D, Meshkova V, Moraal L, Netoiu C, Pajares J, Rubtsov V, Tomescu R, Utkina I. Geometrid outbreak waves travel across Europe. J Anim Ecol 2012; 82:84-95. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02023.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2011] [Accepted: 07/03/2012] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Olle Tenow
- Department of Ecology; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; SE-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Arne C. Nilssen
- Tromsø University Museum, University of Tromsø; NO-9037 Tromsø Norway
| | - Helena Bylund
- Department of Ecology; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; SE-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Rickard Pettersson
- Department of Earth Sciences; Uppsala University; Villavägen 16 SE-752 36 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Andrea Battisti
- Universita di Padova, DAFNAE-Entomologia, Agripolis; Viale dell′Universita 16 35020 Legnaro PD Italia
| | - Udo Bohn
- Alterra, Wageningen UR, Centre Ecosystems; PO Box 47 NL-6700 AA Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Fabien Caroulle
- DGFAR Sous-Direction de la Forêt et du Bois; Département de la santé des forêts; 19 Avenue du Maine 75732 Paris Cedex 15 France
| | - Constantin Ciornei
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - György Csóka
- Department of Forest Protection; Forest Research Institute; PO Box 2 3232 Mátrafüred Hungary
| | - Horst Delb
- Department of Forest Protection; Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg; Wonnhaldenstrasse 4 D-79100 Freiburg i. Br Germany
| | - Willy De Prins
- Zoological Museum of Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam; Plantage Middenlaan 64 NL-1018 DH Amsterdam The Netherlands
| | - Milka Glavendekić
- Faculty of Forestry; University of Belgrade; Kneza Višeslava 1 11030 Belgrade Serbia
| | - Yuri I. Gninenko
- All-Russian Research Institute for Silviculture and Mechanization of Forestry; Pushkino Moscow region Russia
| | - Boris Hrašovec
- Faculty of Forestry; University of Zagreb; PO Box 422 10002 Zagreb Croatia
| | - Dinka Matošević
- Department for Forest Protection and Game Management; Croatian Forest Research Institute; Cvjetno naselje 41 10450 Jastrebarsko Croatia
| | - Valentyna Meshkova
- Laboratory of Forest Protection; Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest Melioration; Pushkinska 86 61024 Kharkov Ukraine
| | - Leen Moraal
- Alterra, Wageningen UR, Centre Ecosystems; PO Box 47 NL-6700 AA Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Constantin Netoiu
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - Juan Pajares
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute, University of Valladolid; Avd. Madrid s/n 34071 Palencia Spain
| | - Vasily Rubtsov
- Institute of Forestry Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Uspenskoe Moscow region 143030 Russia
| | - Romica Tomescu
- Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest; Bucharest Romania
| | - Irina Utkina
- Institute of Forestry Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Uspenskoe Moscow region 143030 Russia
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Klemola T, Ammunét T, Andersson T, Klemola N, Ruohomäki K. Larval parasitism rate increases in herbivore-damaged trees: a field experiment with cyclic birch feeding moths. OIKOS 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.20096.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
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13
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Rubtsov VV, Utkina IA. Long-term dynamics of Operophtera brumata L. in the oak stands of forest-steppe. CONTEMP PROBL ECOL+ 2012. [DOI: 10.1134/s1995425511070095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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15
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Klemola N, Andersson T, Ruohomäki K, Klemola T. Experimental test of parasitism hypothesis for population cycles of a forest lepidopteran. Ecology 2010; 91:2506-13. [PMID: 20957940 DOI: 10.1890/09-2076.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Population cycles of herbivores are thought to be driven by trophic interaction mechanisms, either between food plant and herbivore or between the herbivorous prey and its natural enemies. Observational data have indicated that hymenopteran parasitoids cause delayed density-dependent mortality in cyclic autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) populations. We experimentally tested the parasitism hypothesis of moth population cycles by establishing a four-year parasitoid-exclusion experiment, with parasitoid-proof exclosures, parasitoid-permeable exclosures, and control plots. The exclusion of parasitoids led to high autumnal moth abundances, while the declining abundance in both the parasitoid-permeable exclosures and the control plots paralleled the naturally declining density in the study area and could be explained by high rates of parasitism. Our results provide firm experimental support for the hypothesis that hymenopteran parasitoids have a causal relationship with the delayed density-dependent component required in the generation of autumnal moth population cycles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Netta Klemola
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland
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16
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Hagen SB, Jepsen JU, Schott T, Ims RA. Spatially mismatched trophic dynamics: cyclically outbreaking geometrids and their larval parasitoids. Biol Lett 2010; 6:566-9. [PMID: 20106859 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2009.1002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
For trophic interactions to generate population cycles and complex spatio-temporal patterns, like travelling waves, the spatial dynamics must be matched across trophic levels. Here, we propose a spatial methodological approach for detecting such spatial match-mismatch and apply it to geometrid moths and their larval parasitoids in northern Norway, where outbreak cycles and travelling waves occur. We found clear evidence of spatial mismatch, suggesting that the spatially patterned moth cycles in this system are probably ruled by trophic interactions involving other agents than larval parasitoids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Snorre B Hagen
- Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd, Svanvik, Norway.
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17
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Klemola N, Heisswolf A, Ammunét T, Ruohomäki K, Klemola T. Reversed Impacts by Specialist Parasitoids and Generalist Predators May Explain a Phase Lag in Moth Cycles: A Novel Hypothesis and Preliminary Field Tests. ANN ZOOL FENN 2009. [DOI: 10.5735/086.046.0504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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18
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Jepsen JU, Hagen SB, Karlsen SR, Ims RA. Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology. Proc Biol Sci 2009; 276:4119-28. [PMID: 19740876 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2009.1148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent. We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000-2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect. The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane U Jepsen
- Department of Biology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway.
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19
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Heisswolf A, Klemola T, Andersson T, Ruohomäki K. Shifting body weight-fecundity relationship in a capital breeder: maternal effects on egg numbers of the autumnal moth under field conditions. BULLETIN OF ENTOMOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2009; 99:73-81. [PMID: 18662433 DOI: 10.1017/s0007485308006135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
In the literature, various environmental factors are described as being capable of influencing the reproductive output of insect females irrespective of their body size. Still, female body size or weight is widely used as a proxy for fecundity. In the present study, a seven-year data set on the autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata (Borkhausen) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was used to analyze whether the body weight-fecundity relationship in this capital breeding, cyclic forest defoliating lepidopteran is constant across years. Ambient temperature conditions and density of conspecifics during larval development, the length of the pupal period, as well as moth densities in the parent generation were examined as factors capable of modifying the body weight-fecundity relationship. While the regression slope of potential fecundity (total egg numbers per female) on pupal mass was constant across years, the mean total egg number per given body weight (the regression intercept) was significantly different between years. This residual variance in egg numbers after controlling for the effect of pupal mass was best explained by the pooled geometrid density (autumnal and winter moths) in the parent generation. The total egg number per given body weight decreased with increasing density of geometrid moths in the parent generation. Thus, maternal density effects on offspring fecundity were found in this system. Their rather weak nature suggests, however, that this maternal effect alone does not have the potential of causing cyclic population dynamics in the autumnal moth.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Heisswolf
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland.
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20
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Hagen SB, Jepsen JU, Yoccoz NG, Ims RA. Anisotropic patterned population synchrony in climatic gradients indicates nonlinear climatic forcing. Proc Biol Sci 2008; 275:1509-15. [PMID: 18381259 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Although climatic forcing has been suspected to be the most common cause of spatial population synchrony owing to the Moran effect, it has proved difficult to disentangle the impact of climate from other possible causes of synchrony based on population survey data. Nonlinear population responses to climatic variation may be a part of this difficulty, but they can also provide an opportunity to highlight the climate impacts through targeted survey designs. In particular, when species distribution ranges encompass consistent spatial gradients in climate (e.g. according to latitude or altitude), such gradients can be strategically included in the spatial design of population surveys as to facilitate comparisons of spatial synchrony patterns across and along the gradient. In that case, we predict that nonlinear impacts of climatic variation on population growth rates will result in anisotropic (direction specific) synchrony patterns in the sense that synchrony will drop faster with distance along the climatic gradient than across it. We provide an empirical case study to exemplify survey design and analyses. Of two sympatric species of geometrids, inhabiting an altitudinal gradient in subarctic birch forest, one (Operophtera brumata L.) showed anisotropic synchrony consistent with a strongly nonlinear sensitivity to climatic variation, whereas the other (Epirrita autumnata Bkh.) did not. These results are interpreted in light of the biological characteristics of the species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Snorre B Hagen
- Department of Biology, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norway.
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Klemola N, Kapari L, Klemola T. Host plant quality and defence against parasitoids: no relationship between levels of parasitism and a geometrid defoliator immunoassay. OIKOS 2008. [DOI: 10.1111/j.0030-1299.2008.16611.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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22
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Sherratt JA, Smith MJ. Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction-diffusion models. J R Soc Interface 2008; 5:483-505. [PMID: 18211865 PMCID: PMC2408372 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2007.1327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Periodic travelling waves have been reported in a number of recent spatio-temporal field studies of populations undergoing multi-year cycles. Mathematical modelling has a major role to play in understanding these results and informing future empirical studies. We review the relevant field data and summarize the statistical methods used to detect periodic waves. We then discuss the mathematical theory of periodic travelling waves in oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations. We describe the notion of a wave family, and various ecologically relevant scenarios in which periodic travelling waves occur. We also discuss wave stability, including recent computational developments. Although we focus on oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations, a brief discussion of other types of model in which periodic travelling waves have been demonstrated is also included. We end by proposing 10 research challenges in this area, five mathematical and five empirical.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Sherratt
- Department of Mathematics and, Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
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Klemola T, Andersson T, Ruohomäki K. Fecundity of the autumnal moth depends on pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag: implications for cyclic population dynamics. J Anim Ecol 2008; 77:597-604. [PMID: 18284477 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01369.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
1. The abundance and fecundity-related body size variation of the cyclic autumnal moth Epirrita autumnata were monitored from the early increase phase and throughout the outbreak to the end of the density decline in northernmost Norway during 1999-2006. Another geometrid, the winter moth Operophtera brumata, did not increase in density until the autumnal moth had its post-peak in 2004, and was at its own peak concurrent with the steeply declining autumnal moth abundance in 2005-06. 2. The body size variables measured (forewing lengths of males and females and hind femur lengths of males) of the autumnal moth showed a similar density-dependent response, i.e. increasing density was associated with decreasing body size and fecundity. Nevertheless, regression analyses clearly ranked the pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag as the best predictor for the body size variation, ahead of the abundance of the autumnal moth or past abundance of all geometrids. 3. Nondelayed effects of lowered food quality and absolute shortage of foliage under congested conditions are the most plausible reasons for reduced body size. 4. Two most commonly proposed causal factors of the autumnal moth population cycle, i.e. delayed inducible resistance of the host plant (mountain birch Betula pubescens czerepanovii) and delayed density-dependent parasitism by specialized hymenopteran parasitoids, cannot easily explain the diverging population trends between the autumnal and winter moths. 5. We suggest that either the inducible resistance of the host tree or the host utilization of the most important parasitoids and/or pathogens have to be strictly species-specific between these closely related moth species to produce the population dynamics observed. That fecundity of the autumnal moth was best related to the pooled geometrid abundance weakens support for the former hypothesis, while our lack of host-specific information limits conclusions about the role of natural enemies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tero Klemola
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland.
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Jepsen JU, Hagen SB, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG. Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. J Anim Ecol 2007; 77:257-64. [PMID: 18070041 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01339.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
1. Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species, including some important forest pests. However, whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects, and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks, is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century, we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth, Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth), in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance, and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that, during the past 15-20 years, the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks. Epirrita autumnata, on the other hand, has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest, most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks, and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane U Jepsen
- Department of Biology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway.
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Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes. Oecologia 2007; 155:53-61. [PMID: 17965885 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-007-0885-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2006] [Revised: 09/19/2007] [Accepted: 09/20/2007] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.
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Kerlin DH, Haydon DT, Miller D, Aebischer NJ, Adam Smith A, Thirgood SJ. Spatial synchrony in red grouse population dynamics. OIKOS 2007. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2007.0030-1299.16145.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
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Tenow O, Nilssen AC, Bylund H, Hogstad O. Waves and synchrony in Epirrita autumnata /Operophtera brumata outbreaks. I. Lagged synchrony: regionally, locally and among species. J Anim Ecol 2007; 76:258-68. [PMID: 17302833 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01204.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
1. In 1990-2003, during a complete 10-year outbreak cycle, the synchrony of the birch defoliating outbreaks of the geometrids Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata was studied quantitatively in the northern part of the Fennoscandian mountain chain (the Scandes). Data were supplemented with similar data from 1964 to 1966 and historical information. A 30-year series of field data from one locality in southern Scandes made possible interregional comparisons. 2. In 1991, outbreaks started in north-eastern Fennoscandia and moved westward like a wave and reached the outer coast of north-western Norway in about 2000. This wave is a new observation. In the same years, a previously documented outbreak wave moved southward along the Scandes. 3. Outbreak periods have usually occurred around the middle of each decade. Seemingly unrelated population peaks at the decadal shift 2000 were reported from islands at the coast of north-western Norway. They are shown here to have been the final ripples of the east-west wave. 4. At some localities, O. brumata peaked 2 years after E. autumnata. A lag of 1 or 2 years also occurred at the locality in southern Scandes. This interspecific time lag is a new observation. In accordance with the north-south wave, a time-lag of 1-2 years occurred between the fluctuations of northern and southern E. autumnata and O. brumata populations. 5. The population peak of E. autumnata occurred 1 year earlier at one locality than at a nearby locality. This pattern and particular altitudinal shifts of the O. brumata population density at these localities repeated in two outbreak periods. This indicates that, for example, local climate may modify outbreak synchrony between nearby localities. 6. At the same localities, O. brumata peaked first at one altitude and 1 or 2 years later at another altitude. This vertical lag is a new observation. 7. E. autumnata shows fluctuation traits similar to some other cyclic animals, e.g. the larch budmoth in the European Alps, some European tetraonid birds and the Canadian snow-shoe hare. These similarities (and dissimilarities) in intra- and interspecific synchronies and causes of E. autumnata and O. brumata synchronies, regionally, locally and among the two species are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Tenow
- Department of Entomology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
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Does immune function influence population fluctuations and level of parasitism in the cyclic geometrid moth? POPUL ECOL 2007. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-007-0035-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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