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Cobbold CA, Lutscher F, Yurk B. Bridging the scale gap: Predicting large‐scale population dynamics from small‐scale variation in strongly heterogeneous landscapes. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Christina A. Cobbold
- School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
| | - Frithjof Lutscher
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and Department of Biology University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Brian Yurk
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics Hope College Holland MI USA
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2
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthias Fritsch
- Ecosystem Modelling Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Heike Lischke
- Dynamic Macroecology Land Change ScienceSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Katrin M. Meyer
- Ecosystem Modelling Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany
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3
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Sciaini M, Fritsch M, Scherer C, Simpkins CE. NLMR and landscapetools: An integrated environment for simulating and modifying neutral landscape models in R. Methods Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marco Sciaini
- Department of Ecosystem ModellingUniversity of Göttingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Matthias Fritsch
- Department of Ecosystem ModellingUniversity of Göttingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Cédric Scherer
- Department of Ecological DynamicsLeibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research Berlin Germany
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4
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Abstract
Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction-diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is -1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel Birzu
- Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215
| | - Oskar Hallatschek
- Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Kirill S Korolev
- Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215;
- Graduate Program in Bioinformatics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215
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5
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Gilbert MA, White SM, Bullock JM, Gaffney EA. Speeding up the simulation of population spread models. Methods Ecol Evol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mark A. Gilbert
- Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology Mathematical Institute University of Oxford Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Rd Oxford Oxfordshire OX2 6GGUK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology MacLean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - Steven M. White
- Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology Mathematical Institute University of Oxford Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Rd Oxford Oxfordshire OX2 6GGUK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology MacLean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - James M. Bullock
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology MacLean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - Eamonn A. Gaffney
- Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology Mathematical Institute University of Oxford Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Rd Oxford Oxfordshire OX2 6GGUK
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6
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Kozlov MV. How reproducible are the measurements of leaf fluctuating asymmetry? PeerJ 2015; 3:e1027. [PMID: 26157612 PMCID: PMC4476141 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.1027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2015] [Accepted: 05/26/2015] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) represents small, non-directional deviations from perfect symmetry in morphological characters. FA is generally assumed to increase in response to stress; therefore, FA is frequently used in ecological studies as an index of environmental or genetic stress experienced by an organism. The values of FA are usually small, and therefore the reliable detection of FA requires precise measurements. The reproducibility of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) was explored by comparing the results of measurements of scanned images of 100 leaves of downy birch (Betula pubescens) conducted by 31 volunteer scientists experienced in studying plant FA. The median values of FA varied significantly among the participants, from 0.000 to 0.074, and the coefficients of variation in FA for individual leaves ranged from 25% to 179%. The overall reproducibility of the results among the participants was rather low (0.074). Variation in instruments and methods used by the participants had little effect on the reported FA values, but the reproducibility of the measurements increased by 30% following exclusion of data provided by seven participants who had modified the suggested protocol for leaf measurements. The scientists working with plant FA are advised to pay utmost attention to adequate and detailed description of their data acquisition protocols in their forthcoming publications, because all characteristics of instruments and methods need to be controlled to increase the quality and reproducibility of the data. Whenever possible, the images of all measured objects and the results of primary measurements should be published as electronic appendices to scientific papers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikhail V. Kozlov
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
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7
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Kozlov MV, Zverev V, Zvereva EL. Confirmation bias leads to overestimation of losses of woody plant foliage to insect herbivores in tropical regions. PeerJ 2014; 2:e709. [PMID: 25551025 PMCID: PMC4277485 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Accepted: 12/04/2014] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Confirmation bias, i.e., the tendency of humans to seek out evidence in a manner that confirms their hypotheses, is almost overlooked in ecological studies. For decades, insect herbivory was commonly accepted to be highest in tropical regions. By comparing the data collected blindly (when the observer was not aware of the research hypothesis being tested) with the results of non-blind studies (when the observer knew what results could be expected), we tested the hypothesis that the records made in the tropics could have overestimated community-wide losses of plant foliage to insects due to the confirmation bias. The average loss of leaf area of woody plants to defoliating insects in Brazil, when measured by a blind method (1.11%), was significantly lower than the loss measured in non-blind studies, both original (5.14%) and published (6.37%). We attribute the overestimation of the community-wide losses of plant foliage to insects in non-blind studies to the unconsciously preconceived selection of study species with higher-than-average levels of herbivory. Based on our findings, we urge for caution in obtaining community-wide characteristics from the results of multiple single-species studies. Our data suggest that we may need to revise the paradigm of the highest level of background insect herbivory in the tropical regions. More generally, we argue that more attention should be paid by ecologists to the problem of biases occurring at the pre-publication phases of the scientific research and, consequently, to the development and the wide application of methods that avoid biases occurring due to unconscious psychological processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikhail V Kozlov
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku , Turku , Finland
| | - Vitali Zverev
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku , Turku , Finland
| | - Elena L Zvereva
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku , Turku , Finland
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8
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Heikkinen RK, Bocedi G, Kuussaari M, Heliölä J, Leikola N, Pöyry J, Travis JMJ. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion. PLoS One 2014; 9:e108436. [PMID: 25265281 PMCID: PMC4180940 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2014] [Accepted: 08/26/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species’ capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Risto K Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Justin M J Travis
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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9
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Rougier T, Drouineau H, Dumoulin N, Faure T, Deffuant G, Rochard E, Lambert P. The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.03.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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10
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La Sorte FA, Butchart SHM, Jetz W, Böhning-Gaese K. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change. PLoS One 2014; 9:e98361. [PMID: 24852009 PMCID: PMC4031198 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2014] [Accepted: 05/01/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank A. La Sorte
- Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
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11
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Hoffmann A, Penner J, Vohland K, Cramer W, Doubleday R, Henle K, Kõljalg U, Kühn I, Kunin W, Negro JJ, Penev L, Rodríguez C, Saarenmaa H, Schmeller D, Stoev P, Sutherland W, Ó Tuama É, Wetzel F, Häuser CL. The need for an integrated biodiversity policy support process – Building the European contribution to a global Biodiversity Observation Network (EU BON). NATURE CONSERVATION 2014. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.6.6498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
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12
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Evans MR, Bithell M, Cornell SJ, Dall SRX, Díaz S, Emmott S, Ernande B, Grimm V, Hodgson DJ, Lewis SL, Mace GM, Morecroft M, Moustakas A, Murphy E, Newbold T, Norris KJ, Petchey O, Smith M, Travis JMJ, Benton TG. Predictive systems ecology. Proc Biol Sci 2013; 280:20131452. [PMID: 24089332 PMCID: PMC3790477 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew R Evans
- School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, , Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, , Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, , Liverpool L69 7ZB, UK, Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, , Cornwall Campus TR10 9EZ, UK, Instituto Multidisciplinario de BiologíaVegetal (CONICET-UNC) and FCEFyN, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, , Casilla de Correo 495, Córdoba 5000, Argentina, Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, , 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK, IFREMER, Laboratorie Ressources Halieutiques, 150 quai Gambetta, BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer 62321, France, Helmhotz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstrasse 15, Leipzig 04318, Germany, Earth and Biosphere Institute, University of Leeds, , Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, , Darwin Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK, Natural England, , Cromwell House, Andover Road, Winchester SO23 7BT, UK, British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK, Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, The University of Reading, , Earley Gate, PO Box 237, Reading RG6 6AR, UK, Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, , Winterhurerstrasse 190, Zurich 8057, Switzerland, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK, School of Biology, University of Leeds, , Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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13
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Travis JMJ, Delgado M, Bocedi G, Baguette M, Bartoń K, Bonte D, Boulangeat I, Hodgson JA, Kubisch A, Penteriani V, Saastamoinen M, Stevens VM, Bullock JM. Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change. OIKOS 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00399.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 279] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
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14
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Pe'er G, Zurita GA, Schober L, Bellocq MI, Strer M, Müller M, Pütz S. Simple process-based simulators for generating spatial patterns of habitat loss and fragmentation: a review and introduction to the G-RaFFe model. PLoS One 2013; 8:e64968. [PMID: 23724108 PMCID: PMC3665680 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2012] [Accepted: 04/20/2013] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Landscape simulators are widely applied in landscape ecology for generating landscape patterns. These models can be divided into two categories: pattern-based models that generate spatial patterns irrespective of the processes that shape them, and process-based models that attempt to generate patterns based on the processes that shape them. The latter often tend toward complexity in an attempt to obtain high predictive precision, but are rarely used for generic or theoretical purposes. Here we show that a simple process-based simulator can generate a variety of spatial patterns including realistic ones, typifying landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic activities. The model “G-RaFFe” generates roads and fields to reproduce the processes in which forests are converted into arable lands. For a selected level of habitat cover, three factors dominate its outcomes: the number of roads (accessibility), maximum field size (accounting for land ownership patterns), and maximum field disconnection (which enables field to be detached from roads). We compared the performance of G-RaFFe to three other models: Simmap (neutral model), Qrule (fractal-based) and Dinamica EGO (with 4 model versions differing in complexity). A PCA-based analysis indicated G-RaFFe and Dinamica version 4 (most complex) to perform best in matching realistic spatial patterns, but an alternative analysis which considers model variability identified G-RaFFe and Qrule as performing best. We also found model performance to be affected by habitat cover and the actual land-uses, the latter reflecting on land ownership patterns. We suggest that simple process-based generators such as G-RaFFe can be used to generate spatial patterns as templates for theoretical analyses, as well as for gaining better understanding of the relation between spatial processes and patterns. We suggest caution in applying neutral or fractal-based approaches, since spatial patterns that typify anthropogenic landscapes are often non-fractal in nature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guy Pe'er
- UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Conservation Biology, Leipzig, Germany.
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15
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Jeltsch F, Bonte D, Pe'er G, Reineking B, Leimgruber P, Balkenhol N, Schröder B, Buchmann CM, Mueller T, Blaum N, Zurell D, Böhning-Gaese K, Wiegand T, Eccard JA, Hofer H, Reeg J, Eggers U, Bauer S. Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research - exploring new avenues to address spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics. MOVEMENT ECOLOGY 2013; 1:6. [PMID: 25709820 PMCID: PMC4337763 DOI: 10.1186/2051-3933-1-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2012] [Accepted: 06/03/2013] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of 'movement ecology'. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide 'mobile links' between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through 'equalizing' and 'stabilizing' mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Jeltsch
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany ; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany
| | - Dries Bonte
- Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, Gent, 9000 Belgium
| | - Guy Pe'er
- Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Björn Reineking
- Biogeographical Modelling, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447 Germany ; Irstea, UR EMGR Écosystèmes Montagnards, 2 rue de la Papeterie-BP 76, St-Martin-d'Hères, F-38402 France
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- National Zoological Park, Smithsonian, Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA
| | - Niko Balkenhol
- Department of Forest Zoology and Forest Conservation, University of Göttingen, Buesgenweg 3, Göttingen, 37077 Germany
| | - Boris Schröder
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany ; Landscape Ecology, Technische Universität München, Emil-Ramann-Str. 6, 85354 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany ; Environmental Systems Analysis, Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, Braunschweig, 38106 Germany
| | - Carsten M Buchmann
- Department of Landscape Ecology, UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Thomas Mueller
- National Zoological Park, Smithsonian, Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA ; Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 USA
| | - Niels Blaum
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt (Main), 60325 Germany ; Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, Frankfurt (Main), 60438 Germany
| | - Thorsten Wiegand
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Permoserstr. 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Jana A Eccard
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany ; Department of Animal Ecology, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Universität Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 1, Potsdam, 14469 Germany
| | - Heribert Hofer
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) in the Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V., Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, Berlin, 10315 Germany
| | - Jette Reeg
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ute Eggers
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Silke Bauer
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, Wageningen, AB 6700 The Netherlands ; Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, Sempach, 6204 Switzerland
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