Decision inertia: Deciding between least worst outcomes in emergency responses to disasters

Maximization delays decision-making in acute care nursing

The maximization personality trait refers to the tendency to face decision-making situations along a continuum from exhaustively analysing all the options (maximize) to choosing the one that exceeds a subjective threshold of acceptability (satisfy). Research has revealed the influence of maximizing on decision making, although little is known about its possible role in high risk and high uncertainty situations. A sample of 153 active Spanish nurses, with an average experience of 11 years, completed a maximization questionnaire and responded to written vignettes depicting time-demanding decision making in which three options were offered, representing delayed action, non-action, and immediate action. Two vignettes presented critical situations related to acute care during the COVID-19 pandemic, whilst two vignettes presented non-nursing scenarios. People high in maximization took longer to choose and were more likely to choose non-action. No relationship was found between maximization score and the subjective experience of the person making the choice. Maximization had no significant correlation with years of experience nor perceived expertise. Greater perceived expertise was associated with lower indecision and greater confidence. When participants answered nursing vignettes, they took longer to respond, but chose less delayed action and more immediate action. Our results suggest that maximization plays only a relative role in acute care decision-making in nursing, as compared to contextual variables and expertise. They also support a domain general approach to this personality trait. Findings are consistent with Nibbelink and Reed's Practice-Primed Decision Model for nursing.

Identifying challenges to critical incident decision-making through a macro-, meso-, and micro- lens: A systematic synthesis and holistic narrative analysis

It is predicted that emergency responses to critical incidents will increase over the next few decades, as society faces unique and dynamic challenges (e.g., pandemics, migrant crises, and terrorism). As such, it is necessary to breakdown, identify, and evaluate the unique barriers associated with decision-making in the context of critical incident responses. The aim of the current study was to synthesize the bibliographic characteristics of the research on decision making and present a holistic narrative analysis of the multi-layered factors. Additionally, the systematic synthesis of evidence facilitated a critical appraisal of the quality and distribution of evidence across macro-, meso-, and micro- levels. Results suggested that research was moderately heterogeneous, as evidence captured diverse narrative factors. However, micro-centric characteristics (e.g., cognitive-related factors) were not well represented. Instead, research primarily focused toward intermediate meso-level characteristics, capturing factors such as "interoperability" and "organization policy and procedure" as critical challenges to decision-making. Six key narratives were also identified and discussed. Both the quality appraisal and narrative findings suggested that research should seek opportunities to experimentally assess, evaluate and validate decision-making. Whilst this has previously appeared ethically and practically problematic, advances in technology, research and analysis have allowed high-fidelity simulation experimentation to recreate critical incidents.

Group processes and interoperability: A longitudinal case study analysis of the UK's civil contingency response to Covid‐19

Our case study explored a Local Resilience Forum's (LRF) civil contingency response to COVID‐19 in the United Kingdom. We undertook 19 semistructured ethnographic longitudinal interviews, between March 25, 2020 and February 17, 2021, with a Director of a Civil Contingencies Unit and a Chief Fire Officer who both played key roles within their LRF. Within these interviews, we focused on their strategic level decision‐making and how their relationship with national government impacted on local processes and outcomes. Using a form of grounded theory, our data describe the chronological evolution of an increasingly effective localized approach toward outbreak control and a growing resilience in dealing with concurrent emergency incidents. However, we also highlight how national government organizations imposed central control on aspects of the response in ways that undermined or misaligned with local preparedness. Thus, during emergencies, central governments can undermine the principle of subsidiarity and damage the ways in which LRFs can help scaffold local resilience. Our work contributes to the theoretical understanding of the social psychological factors that can shape the behaviour of responder agencies during a prolonged crisis. In particular, the implications of our analysis for advancing our conceptual understanding of strategic decision‐making during emergencies are discussed.

Communication barrier-incorporated network modeling for interorganizational opinion formation in emergency events

During and after an emergency event, multiple organizations with various specialties are involved in consensus decision-making to reduce the loss of lives and property in a timely manner. However, timely, high-consensus decision-making is challenging due to communication barriers between participating organizations. Thus, this study generalizes a conceptual communication network considering communication barriers by reviewing multiple historical emergencies and proposes a quantitative communication network model by integrating an opinion dynamics model and social network analysis (SNA). An illustrative example is provided by simulating two emergency decision-making scenarios to verify the proposed model. A case study of the 2013 Qingdao oil pipeline explosion is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the proposed model. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed model can accurately quantify the impact of communication barriers on the opinion formation time. This research provides a quantitative toolkit for understanding and improving decision-making performance in various emergencies.

Avoidant authority: The effect of organizational power on decision-making in high-uncertainty situations

Individuals in positions of power are often required to make high-stakes decisions. The approach-inhibition theory of social power holds that elevated power activates approach-related tendencies, leading to decisiveness and action orientation. However, naturalistic decision-making research has often reported that increased power often has the opposite effect and causes more avoidant decision-making. To investigate the potential activation of avoidance-related tendencies in response to elevated power, this study employed an immersive scenario-based battery of least-worst decisions (the Least-Worst Uncertain Choice Inventory for Emergency Responses; LUCIFER) with members of the United States Armed Forces. In line with previous naturalistic decision-making research on the effect of power, this research found that in conditions of higher power, individuals found decisions more difficult and were more likely to make an avoidant choice. Furthermore, this effect was more pronounced in domain-specific decisions for which the individual had experience. These findings expand our understanding of when, and in what contexts, power leads to approach vs. avoidant tendencies, as well as demonstrate the benefits of bridging methodological divides that exist between "in the lab" and "in the field" when studying high-uncertainty decision-making.

Developing Public Health Emergency Response Leaders in Incident Management: A Scoping Review of Educational Interventions

During emergency responses, public health leaders frequently serve in incident management roles that differ from their routine job functions. Leaders' familiarity with incident management principles and functions can influence response outcomes. Therefore, training and exercises in incident management are often required for public health leaders. To describe existing methods of incident management training and exercises in the literature, we queried 6 English language databases and found 786 relevant articles. Five themes emerged: (1) experiential learning as an established approach to foster engaging and interactive learning environments and optimize training design; (2) technology-aided decision support tools are increasingly common for crisis decision-making; (3) integration of leadership training in the education continuum is needed for developing public health response leaders; (4) equal emphasis on competency and character is needed for developing capable and adaptable leaders; and (5) consistent evaluation methodologies and metrics are needed to assess the effectiveness of educational interventions.These findings offer important strategic and practical considerations for improving the design and delivery of educational interventions to develop public health emergency response leaders. This review and ongoing real-world events could facilitate further exploration of current practices, emerging trends, and challenges for continuous improvements in developing public health emergency response leaders.

The Effect of a 3-Minute Mindfulness Intervention, and the Mediating Role of Maximization, on Critical Incident Decision-Making

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we extend the impact of mindfulness to the concept of least-worst decision-making. Least-worst decisions involve high-uncertainty and require the individual to choose between a number of potentially negative courses of action. Research is increasingly exploring least-worst decisions, and real-world events (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) show the need for individuals to overcome uncertainty and commit to a least-worst course of action. From sports to business, researchers are increasingly showing that "being mindful" has a range of positive performance-related benefits. We hypothesized that mindfulness would improve least-worst decision-making because it would increase self-reflection and value identification. However, we also hypothesized that trait maximization (the tendency to attempt to choose the "best" course of action) would negatively interact with mindfulness.

METHODS

Three hundred and ninety-eight participants were recruited using Amazon MTurk and exposed to a brief mindfulness intervention or a control intervention (listening to an audiobook). After this intervention, participants completed the Least-Worst Uncertain Choice Inventory for Emergency Responders (LUCIFER).

RESULTS

As hypothesized, mindfulness increased decision-making speed and approach-tendencies. Conversely, for high-maximizers, increased mindfulness caused a slowing of the decision-making process and led to more avoidant choices.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the potential positive and negative consequences of mindfulness for least-worst decision-making, emphasizing the critical importance of individual differences when considering both the effect of mindfulness and interventions aimed at improving decision-making.

Moral decisions in the age of COVID-19: Your choices really matter

The moral decisions we make during this period, such as deciding whether to comply with quarantine rules, have unprecedented societal effects. We simulate the "escape from Milan" that occurred on March 7th-8th 2020, when many travelers moved from a high-risk zone (Milan) to southern regions of Italy (Campania and Lazio) immediately after an imminent lockdown was announced. Our simulations show that fewer than 50 active cases might have caused the sudden spread of the virus observed afterwards in these regions. The surprising influence of the actions of few individuals on societal dynamics challenges our cognitive expectations - as in normal conditions, collective dynamics are rather robust to the decisions of few "cheaters". This situation therefore requires novel educational strategies that increase our awareness and understanding of the unprecedented effects of our individual moral decisions.

Policing in pandemics: A systematic review and best practices for police response to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a range of unforeseen and unprecedented challenges for police departments worldwide. In light of these challenges, the goal of this review is to understand the potential short- and long-term effects of disasters and public health emergencies on policing organisations and officers. A total of 72 studies were eligible for inclusion, based on their focus on policing and police work during and in the aftermath of natural disasters and public health emergencies. Through an extensive review, we compile and analyse the most common issues and best practices identified in the literature, and discuss 'what works' in the context of policing such emergencies. The literature reveals four categories of issues predominantly raised in this context, namely police-community relations, the mental health and wellbeing of officers, intra-organisational challenges, as well as inter-agency collaboration and cooperation. Based on our review and analysis, we offer a list of recommendations relevant for policing the current COVID-19 outbreak. The findings of this review have immediate implications for policing during COVID-19 but also cover long-term effects, providing valuable recommendations for after the crises has passed.

Cognition in crisis management teams: an integrative analysis of definitions

In large-scale extreme events, multidisciplinary crisis management teams (CMTs) are required to function together cognitively. Despite theoretical maturity in team cognition and recurrent emphasis on cognition in the crisis management practices, no synthesis of theoretical and practical discourses is currently available, limiting empirical investigations of cognition in CMTs. To address this gap, this paper aims to review the definitions of cognition in CMTs, with a particular focus on examining if and to what extent they are diversified. Through a systematic process to search peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 1990 to 2019, 59 articles were selected with 62 coded definitions of 11 different constructs. The similarities and variabilities of the definitions were examined in terms of their theoretical and practical emphases and then synthesised into an integrative definition expected to serve as a general guide of reference for future researchers seeking an operational definition of cognition in CMTs. Practitioner summary: Understanding of cognition in CMTs is grounded in various theories and models with varying assumptions. An integrative conceptualisation of such cognition as interaction within and across CMTs to perceive, diagnose, and adapt to the crisis may facilitate the accumulation of knowledge and future operationalisations. Abbreviations: CMT(s): crisis management team(s); SMM: shared mental model; TMM: team mental model; COP: common operating picture; SSA: shared situation awareness; TSA: team situation awareness; DC: distributed cognition; ITC: interactive team cognition; TMS: transitive memory system(s); DSA: distributed situation awareness.

Police Perfection: Examining the Effect of Trait Maximization on Police Decision-Making

Police officers around the world must often select between equally unappealing, uncertain courses of action in an attempt to achieve the best outcome. Despite the immense importance of such decisions, there remains a lack of understanding in the study of individual differences in police decision-making. Here, using a sample of senior police officers recruited from decision-making training events across the United Kingdom (n = 96), we used the Least-worst Uncertain Choice Inventory For Emergency Responses (LUCIFER) to measure the effect of maximization on both domain-specific (police) and domain-general (military) decisions. In line with a wealth of research on traditional "consumer" decisions, we found that police officers who were "maximizers" found decisions more difficult. Gender and previous military experience also influenced the process of decision-making. Specifically, police officers with military experience took more time to assess the situation but were faster to choose a course of action and commit to it. Female police officers also were slower to assess the situation. As recent events show, the outcomes of police decisions have significant consequences for the public, the officers involved, the police force as a whole, and the wider population, yet psychological research has yet to fully explore the role of individual differences in how such decisions are made. While this study does not seek to identify factors associated with "good" or "better" decision-makers, it provides strong support for the need to factor in perspectives of the individual when creating theory, or applied tools, in support of police decision-making.

Choice and consequence: A naturalistic analysis of least-worst decision-making in critical incidents

Individuals responsible for decision-making during critical incidents must wrestle with uncertainty, complexity, time pressure, and accountability. Critical incidents are defined as rare events where demand outstrips resources and where there are high stakes, uncertainty, and dynamic and ever-shifting elements that frustrate clear predictions. This paper argues that critical-incident decision-making is highly complex because many critical incidents have no such analogue, and thus there is no prior experience to draw upon. Further, while prescriptive models argue for a selection of a "best" outcome, rarely in critical incidents is there a "best" outcome and, instead, more likely a "least-worst" one. Most options are high risk, most will carry negative consequences, and many will be immutable and irreversible once committed to. This paper analyzes data collected from critical decision method interviews with members of the United States Armed Forces to explore the psychological processes of making (or not making) least-worst decisions in high-consequence situations. Specifically, and based on thematic analysis of interviews with those who have made least-worst decisions while serving as part of the Armed Forces, we identify a host of exogenous (external to the incident such as resources, political agendas) and endogenous factors (features of the incident itself-size, scale, duration) that affect the decision-making process. These factors have, to date, not been factored into theoretical models of how high-stakes decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty.

Immersive simulations with extreme teams

Extreme teams (ETs) work in challenging, high pressured contexts, where poor performance can have severe consequences. These teams must coordinate their skill sets, align their goals, and develop shared awareness, all under stressful conditions. How best to research these teams poses unique challenges as researchers seek to provide applied recommendations while conducting rigorous research to test how teamwork models work in practice. In this article, we identify immersive simulations as one solution to this, outlining their advantages over existing methodologies and suggesting how researchers can best make use of recent advances in technology and analytical techniques when designing simulation studies. We conclude that immersive simulations are key to ensuring ecological validity and empirically reliable research with ETs.

Multiteam Systems: An Integrated Review and Comparison of Different Forms

In this review, we examine the burgeoning body of research on multiteam systems (MTSs) since the introduction of the concept in 2001. MTSs refer to networks of interdependent teams that coordinate at some level to achieve proximal and distal goals. We summarize MTS findings around three core processes and states: within- and between-team coordination processes/structures, leadership structures/processes, and cognitive and affective/motivation emergent states. Furthermore, we explore how these processes and states vary according to MTS boundary status (internal or external), component team distance (geographic, functional, cultural, and discipline), and superordinate goal type (intellectual or physical). We identify several process and state similarities across levels of these attributes, as well as highlight some important differences. We conclude with a set of propositions and future directions prompted by our review, which can serve as a guide for future MTS research.

Decision Inertia in Critical Incidents

Abstract. When presented with competing options, critical incident decision makers often struggle to commit to a choice (in particular when all options appear to yield negative consequences). Despite being motivated to take action in disasters, terrorism, major investigations, and complex political interventions, decision makers can become inert, looping between phases of situation assessment, option generation, and option evaluation. This “looping” is functionally redundant when it persists until they have lost the opportunity to take action. We define this as “decision inertia”: the result of a process of (redundant) deliberation over possible options and in the absence of any further useful information. In the context of critical incidents (political, security, military, law enforcement) we have discovered that rather than disengaging and avoiding difficult choices, decision makers are acutely aware of the negative consequences that might arise if they failed to decide (i.e., the incident would escalate). The sensitization to possible future outcomes leads to intense deliberation over possible choices and their consequences and, ultimately, can result in a failure to take any action in time (or at all). We (i) discuss decision inertia as a novel psychological process of redundant deliberation during crises; (ii) define the concept and discuss the emerging studies in support of our tentative hypotheses regarding how the cognitively active process of deliberation can result in complete behavioral inactivity; and (iii) suggest recommendations and interventions for combatting inertia.

Advancing Teams Research: What, When, and How to Measure Team Dynamics Over Time

Teams are complex and dynamic entities that face constant changes to their team structures and must simultaneously work to meet and adapt to the varying situational demands of their environment (Kozlowski and Ilgen, 2006). Agencies, industries, and government institutions are currently placing greater attention to the influence on team dynamics and teamwork as they are important to key organizational outcomes. Due to increased emphasis being placed upon the understanding the maturation of team dynamics, the incorporation of efficient methodological tools to understand how teams are being measured over time becomes critical. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present a review of relevant academic articles detailing the science behind methodological tools and general approaches to study team dynamics over time. We provide an overview of the methodological tools used to understand team dynamics with accordance to specific temporal elements. Drawing from Kozlowski et al. (1999) process model of team development, we highlight relevant emergent team constructs within each stage. As well, for each stage, we discuss the what and how to measure team dynamics. Our analyses bring to light relevant, novel and complex approaches being used by researchers to examine specific constructs within different team developmental phases (e.g., agent-based simulations, computational modeling) and the importance of transitioning from a single source methodology approach. Implications and future research are also discussed.

Information sharing in interteam responses to disaster

Research demonstrates that information sharing is facilitated by familiarity, and having a common understanding of problems, use of lexicon, and semantic meaning. These factors can be difficult to develop within extreme environments such as disasters as members of the multi-agency system that responds often have limited experience of working together. Public inquiries repeatedly highlight the impact of information sharing difficulties on public safety, but limited academic research has focused on identifying concrete behaviours that facilitate interteam information sharing within such environments. This paper presents a case study of a national disaster response exercise involving 1,000 emergency responders. Data consist of structured observations, recordings of interteam meetings, and interviews with emergency responders. Results of mixed-method analysis indicate that interteam information sharing is delayed by limited situation awareness and poor articulation. Conversely, adopting behaviours that promote common frames for understanding interteam capabilities and information requirements improves information sharing and potentially reduces cognitive effort required to process information. Findings contribute to interteam communication theory by highlighting that in complex, time-constrained environments, having a shared understanding of responsibilities and information requirement is important for minimizing redundant deliberation and improving relevance and speed.

PRACTITIONER POINTS

Facilitating the exchange and interpretation of relevant information is important for improving situation assessment, decision-making, and the implementation of appropriate actions for addressing risks.Interteam information sharing can be particularly challenging when teams are comprised of members from across different organizations with different language and cultures that must form ad hoc to rapidly respond to problems in extreme environments.Adopting communication strategies that develop common frames-of-reference can facilitate information sharing and interteam responses to disasters.