Ecological niche models of invasive seaweeds

Shading by giant kelp canopy can restrict the invasiveness of Undaria pinnatifida (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae)

The spread of non-indigenous and invasive seaweeds has increased worldwide, and their potential effects on native seaweeds have raised concern. Undaria pinnatifida is considered among the most prolific non-indigenous species. This species has expanded rapidly in the Northeast Pacific, overlapping with native communities such as the iconic giant kelp forests (Macrocystis pyrifera). Canopy shading by giant kelp has been argued to be a limiting factor for the presence of U. pinnatifida in the understory, thus its invasiveness capacity. However, its physiological plasticity under light limitation remains unclear. In this work, we compared the physiology and growth of juvenile U. pinnatifida and M. pyrifera sporophytes transplanted to the understory of a giant kelp forest, to juveniles growing outside of the forest. Extreme low light availability compared to that outside (~0.2 and ~4.4 mol photon ⋅ m-2 ⋅ d-1 , respectively) likely caused a "metabolic energy crisis" in U. pinnatifida, thus restricting its photoacclimation plasticity and nitrogen acquisition, ultimately reducing its growth. Despite M. pyrifera juveniles showing photoacclimatory responses (e.g., increases in photosynthetic efficiency and lower compensation irradiance, Ec ), their physiological/vegetative status deteriorated similarly to U. pinnatifida, which explains the low recruitment inside the forest. Generally, our results revealed the ecophysiological basis behind the limited growth and survival of juvenile U. pinnatifida sporophytes in the understory.

Species distribution models as a tool for early detection of the invasive Raphidiopsis raciborskii in European lakes

In freshwater habitats, invasive species and the increase of cyanobacterial blooms have been identified as a major cause of biodiversity loss. The invasive cyanobacteria Raphidiopsis raciborskii a toxin-producing and bloom-forming species affecting local biodiversity and ecosystem services is currently expanding its range across Europe. We used species distribution models (SDMs) and regional bioclimatic environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to identify suitable areas for the colonization and survival of R. raciborskii, with special focus on the geographic extent of potential habitats in Northern Europe. SDMs predictions uncovered areas of high occurrence probability of R. raciborskii in locations where it has not been recorded yet, e.g. some areas in Central and Northern Europe. In the southeastern part of Sweden, areas of suitable climate for R. raciborskii corresponded with lakes of high concentrations of total phosphorus, increasing the risk of the species to thrive. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to predict areas at high risk of R. raciborskii colonization in Europe. The results from this study suggest several areas across Europe that would need monitoring programs to determine if the species is present or not, to be able to prevent its potential colonization and population growth. Regarding an undesirable microorganism like R. raciborskii, authorities may need to start information campaigns to avoid or minimize the spread.

Environmental Drivers and Potential Distribution of Schistosoma mansoni Endemic Areas in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, human schistosomiasis is caused by two species of schistosome, Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium, with the former being dominant in the country, causing infections of more than 5 million people and more than 37 million at risk of infection. What is more, new transmission foci for S. mansoni have been reported over the past years in the country, raising concerns over the potential impacts of environmental changes (e.g., climate change) on the disease spread. Knowledge on the distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas and associated drivers is much needed for surveillance and control programs in the country. Here we report a study that aims to examine environmental determinants underlying the distribution and suitability of S. mansoni endemic areas at the national scale of Ethiopia. The study identified that, among five physical environmental factors examined, soil property, elevation, and climatic factors (e.g., precipitation and temperature) are key factors associated with the distribution of S. mansoni endemic areas. The model predicted that the suitable areas for schistosomiasis transmission are largely distributed in northern, central, and western parts of the country, suggesting a potentially wide distribution of S. mansoni endemic areas. The findings of this study are potentially instrumental to inform public health surveillance, intervention, and future research on schistosomiasis in Ethiopia. The modeling approaches employed in this study may be extended to other schistosomiasis endemic regions and to other vector-borne diseases.

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

AIM

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXA

Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.

METHODS

Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the "ecospat" package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m).

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Mean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.

Modelling the Distribution of the Red Macroalgae Asparagopsis to Support Sustainable Aquaculture Development

Fermentative digestion by ruminant livestock is one of the main ways enteric methane enters the atmosphere, although recent studies have identified that including red macroalgae as a feed ingredient can drastically reduce methane produced by cattle. Here, we utilize ecological modelling to identify suitable sites for establishing aquaculture development to support sustainable agriculture and Sustainable Development Goals 1 and 2. We used species distributions models (SDMs) parameterized using an ensemble of multiple statistical and machine learning methods, accounting for novel methodological and ecological artefacts that arise from using such approaches on non-native and cultivated species. We predicted the current distribution of two Asparagopsis species to high accuracy around the coast of Ireland. The environmental drivers of each species differed depending on where the response data was sourced from (i.e., native vs. non-native), suggesting that the length of time A. armata has been present in Ireland may mean it has undergone a niche shift. Subsequently, researchers looking to adopt SDMs to support aquaculture development need to acknowledge emerging conceptual issues, and here we provide the code needed to implement such research, which should support efforts to effectively choose suitable sites for aquaculture development that account for the unique methodological steps identified in this research.

Spotting intruders: Species distribution models for managing invasive intertidal macroalgae

Invasive macroalgae represent one of the major threats to marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and structure, as well as being important drivers of ecosystem services depletion. Many such species have become well established along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the lack of information about the distribution of the invaders and the factors determining their occurrence make bioinvasions a difficult issue to manage. Such information is key to enabling the design and implementation of effective management plans. The present study aimed to map the current probability of presence of six invasive macroalgae: Grateloupia turuturu, Asparagopsis armata, Colpomenia peregrina, Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida, and Codium fragile ssp. fragile. For this purpose, an extensive field survey was carried out along the coast of the north-western Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models (SDMs) were then used to map the presence probability of these invasive species throughout the study region on the basis of environmental and anthropogenic predictor variables. The southern Galician rias were identified as the main hotspots of macroalgal invasion, with a high probability of occurrence for most of the species considered. Conversely, the probability of presence on the Portuguese coast was generally low. Physico-chemical variables were the most important factors for predicting the distribution of invasive macroalgae contributing between 57.27 and 85.24% to the ensemble models. However, anthropogenic factors (including size of vessels, number of shipping lines, distance from ports, population density, etc.) considerably improved the estimates of the probability of occurrence for most of the target species. This study is one of the few to include anthropogenic factors in SDMs for invasive macroalgae. The findings suggest that management actions aimed at controlling these species should strengthen control and surveillance at ports, particularly in southern Galician rias. Early detection should be of main concern for risk assessment plans on the Portuguese coast.

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 °C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 °C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species.

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

Ecophysiological implications of UV radiation in the interspecific interaction of Pyropia acanthophora and Grateloupia turuturu (Rhodophyta)

Radiation, both photosynthetic active radiation (PAR, l = 400-700 nm) and Ultraviolet (UVR, l = 280-400 nm) is one of the key factors regulating algal distribution in aquatic environments. Pyropia acanthophora and Grateloupia turuturu have been found over upper rocky shore areas in Southern Brazil, occupying the same niche space. The first species is native and the second one is exotic and considered a potential invader of South Atlantic. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of radiation on physiological responses of both species and infer mechanisms that allow their niche competition in the environment. Samples were cultured in the following conditions: associated or separated, and with an addition of PAR, PAR + UVA (PA) and PAR + UVA + UVB (PAB), totalizing six factorial treatments during 5 days of exposure. Photosynthetic responses of F_v/F_m and ETR were daily evaluated. At the beginning and at the end of the experiment, samples were analyzed for pigment content (chlorophyll a and phycobiliproteins), and mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs), while oxygen evolution was evaluated at the end of the experiment. As the main results, G. turuturu died when cultivated in PAB conditions. P. acanthophora presented higher amounts of chlorophyll a than G. turuturu during the whole experiment. Phycoerythrin and F_v/F_m remained constant in P. acanthophora but diminished for G. turuturu in UV treatments. ETR was higher for samples that were cultivated in associative treatment. The presence of G. turuturu in the same flask enhanced MAA synthesis in P. acanthophora, regardless of radiation condition. In addition, UV radiation can be a factor controlling species distribution and could counteract the spreading of invasive species, like G. turuturu, allowing P. acanthophora survival in upper rocky shore zones of the natural ecological distribution area.

Combining niche shift and population genetic analyses predicts rapid phenotypic evolution during invasion

The rapid evolution of non-native species can facilitate invasion success, but recent reviews indicate that such microevolution rarely yields expansion of the climatic niche in the introduced habitats. However, because some invasions originate from a geographically restricted portion of the native species range and its climatic niche, it is possible that the frequency, direction, and magnitude of phenotypic evolution during invasion have been underestimated. We explored the utility of niche shift analyses in the red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla, which expanded its range from the northeastern coastline of Japan to North America, Europe, and northwestern Africa within the last 100 years. A genetically informed climatic niche shift analysis indicates that native source populations occur in colder and highly seasonal habitats, while most non-native populations typically occur in warmer, less seasonal habitats. This climatic niche expansion predicts that non-native populations evolved greater tolerance for elevated heat conditions relative to native source populations. We assayed 935 field-collected and 325 common-garden thalli from 40 locations, and as predicted, non-native populations had greater tolerance for ecologically relevant extreme heat (40°C) than did Japanese source populations. Non-native populations also had greater tolerance for cold and low-salinity stresses relative to source populations. The importance of local adaptation to warm temperatures during invasion was reinforced by evolution of parallel clines: Populations from warmer, lower-latitude estuaries had greater heat tolerance than did populations from colder, higher-latitude estuaries in both Japan and eastern North America. We conclude that rapid evolution plays an important role in facilitating the invasion success of this and perhaps other non-native marine species. Genetically informed ecological niche analyses readily generate clear predictions of phenotypic shifts during invasions and may help to resolve debate over the frequency of niche conservatism versus rapid adaptation during invasion.

Assessing global range expansion in a cryptic species complex: insights from the red seaweed genus Asparagopsis (Florideophyceae)

The mitochondrial genetic diversity, distribution and invasive potential of multiple cryptic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of the red invasive seaweed Asparagopsis were assessed by studying introduced Mediterranean and Hawaiian populations. Invasive behavior of each Asparagopsis OTU was inferred from phylogeographic reconstructions, past historical demographic dynamics, recent range expansion assessments and future distributional predictions obtained from demographic models. Genealogical networks resolved Asparagopsis gametophytes and tetrasporophytes into four A. taxiformis and one A. armata cryptic OTUs. Falkenbergia isolates of A. taxiformis L3 were recovered for the first time in the western Mediterranean Sea and represent a new introduction for this area. Neutrality statistics supported past range expansion for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in Hawaii. On the other hand, extreme geographic expansion and an increase in effective population size were found only for A. taxiformis L2 in the western Mediterranean Sea. Distribution models predicted shifts of the climatically suitable areas and population expansion for A. armata L1 and A. taxiformis L1 and L2. Our integrated study confirms a high invasive risk for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in temperate and tropical areas. Despite the differences in predictions among modelling approaches, a number of regions were identified as zones with high invasion risk for A. taxiformis L2. Since range shifts are likely climate-driven phenomena, future invasive behavior cannot be excluded for the rest of the lineages.