Predictive performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc rule in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Shared Decision-Making Aid for Stroke-Prevention Strategies in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Receiving Maintenance Hemodialysis (SIMPLIFY-HD): A Mixed-Methods Study

Background

Recent atrial fibrillation guidelines recommend shared decision-making between clinicians and patients when choosing stroke-prevention therapies. Although decision aids improve patients' knowledge and decisional conflicts, there is no decision aid for stroke-prevention strategies in people with atrial fibrillation receiving hemodialysis.

Objective

The objective was to develop and field test the first decision aid for Atrial Fibrillation in HemoDialysis (AFHD-DA) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation and hemodialysis.

Design

This is a sequential 3-phase mixed-methods study following the International Patient Decision Aid Standards and the Ottawa Decision Support Framework.

Setting

This study was conducted in 2 ambulatory hemodialysis centers in Montreal and Laval (Canada).

Participants

Adults with atrial fibrillation receiving hemodialysis and clinicians (physicians, pharmacists, or nurse practitioners) involved in their care.

Methods

In phase 1, we conducted systematic and 2 rapid reviews and formed the steering committee to pilot the first version of AFHD-DA. In phase 2, we refined the AFHD-DA through 4 rounds of focus groups and interviews, using a qualitative analysis of transcripts and a descriptive analysis of acceptability and usability scores. In phase 3, we field-tested the decision aid during 16 simulated clinical consultations. We assessed decisional conflict and patient knowledge using before-and-after paired t-tests and compared the proportion of patients with high decisional conflict using McNemar's test. We used the Ottawa Hospital preparation for decision-making scale and participants' feedback to evaluate how AFHD-DA facilitated shared decision-making.

Results

We enrolled 8 patients and 10 clinicians in phase 2. The predefined usability and acceptability thresholds (68 and 66, respectively) were reached. Theme saturation was achieved in the fourth round of focus groups and interviews. Four major themes emerged: acceptability, usability, decision-making process, and scientific value of the decision aid. Sixteen patients and 10 clinicians field-tested the decision aid in phase 3. In clinical settings, AFHD-DA significantly decreased the mean decisional conflict score from 41.0 to 13.6 (P < .001) and the proportion of patients with decisional conflicts from 81.3 to 18.8% (P = .002). It improved the patients' mean knowledge score from 62.7 to 76.6 (P = .001), and 81% of patients and 90% of clinicians felt highly prepared for decision-making. Clinical consultations lasted, on average, 21 minutes (standard deviation = 8).

Limitations

The main limitations were the low quality of existing literature, the small number of participants, and the absence of a control group.

Conclusions

The decision aid facilitated time-efficient shared decision-making between clinicians and patients, improved patients' knowledge, and reduced decisional conflict around selecting a stroke-prevention strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation receiving hemodialysis.

Role of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting hospital stay and 90-day readmission among patients with atrial fibrillation in Syria

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting hospital readmission risk and length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted with primary atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients with index admission for AF to Latakia's tertiary center (May 2021-November 2023). Patients were followed 90 days to assess readmission. CHA2DS2-VASc was correlated with 90-day readmission, inpatient all-cause mortality, and LOS during index admission.

RESULTS

In total, 717 patients were included; 320 (45%) were readmitted to the hospital within 90 days (58% men, 65% aged <65 years). Inpatient mortality was 4%; the median LOS was 2 days. There was an increase in the incident rate ratio (IRR) of LOS starting from a CHA2DS2-VASc of 2 (IRR: 2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7-2.2) to a score of >6 (IRR: 5, 95% CI: 1.8-10.7), compared with a score of 0. There was an incremental increase in the hazard ratio (HR) of readmission from a score of 1 (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3-4.1) to a score of >6 (HR: 41, 95% CI: 31-72) compared with a CHA2DS2-VASc of 0.

CONCLUSION

CHA2DS2-VASc could predict 90-day hospital readmission and LOS during the index admission in patients admitted with primary AF.

Left atrial appendage thrombus is associated with a higher fractal dimension in patients with atrial fibrillation

PURPOSE

To assess the anatomical complexity of the left atrial appendage (LAA) using fractal dimension (FD) based on cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA) and the association between LAA FD and LAA thrombosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who underwent both cardiac CTA and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) between December 2018 and December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were categorized into normal (n = 925), circulatory stasis (n = 82), and thrombus groups (n = 76) based on TEE results and propensity score matching (PSM) was performed for subsequent analysis. FD was calculated to quantify the morphological heterogeneity of LAA. Independent risk factors for thrombus were screened using logistic regression. The diagnostic performance of FD and CHA2DS2-VaSc score for predicting thrombus was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).

RESULTS

LAA FD was higher in the thrombus group (1.61 [1.49, 1.70], P < 0.001) than in the circulatory stasis (1.33 [1.18, 1.47]) and normal groups (1.30 [1.18, 1.42]) both before and after PSM. LAA FD was also an independent risk factor in the thrombus (OR [odds ratio] = 570,861.15 compared to normal, 41,122.87 compared to circulatory stasis; all P < 0.001) and circulatory stasis group (OR = 98.87, P = 0.001) after PSM. The diagnostic performance of LAA FD was significantly better than the CHA2DS2-VaSc score in identifying thrombus.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with high LAA FD are more likely to develop LAA thrombus, and the use of FD provides an effective method for assessing the risk of thrombosis in AF patients, thereby guiding individualized clinical treatment.

GRADE concept paper 8: judging the certainty of discrimination performance estimates of prognostic models in a body of validation studies

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models incorporate multiple prognostic factors to estimate the likelihood of future events for individual patients based on their prognostic factor values. Evaluating these models crucially involves conducting studies to assess their predictive performance, like discrimination. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of these validation studies play an essential role in selecting models for clinical practice.

METHODS

In this paper, we outline 3 thresholds to determine the target for certainty rating in the discrimination of prognostic models, as observed across a body of validation studies.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

We propose 3 thresholds when rating the certainty of evidence about a prognostic model's discrimination. The first threshold amounts to rating certainty in the model's ability to classify better than random chance. The other 2 approaches involve setting thresholds informed by other mechanisms for classification: clinician intuition or an alternative prognostic model developed for the same disease area and outcome. The choice of threshold will vary based on the context. Instead of relying on arbitrary discrimination cut-offs, our approach positions the observed discrimination within an informed spectrum, potentially aiding decisions about a prognostic model's practical utility.

Predicting multifaceted risks using machine learning in atrial fibrillation: insights from GLORIA-AF study

Aims

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of ischaemic stroke and death. While anticoagulants are effective at reducing these risks, they increase the risk of bleeding. Current clinical risk scores only perform modestly in predicting adverse outcomes, especially for the outcome of death. We aimed to test the multi-label gradient boosting decision tree (ML-GBDT) model in predicting risks for adverse outcomes in a prospective global AF registry.

Methods and results

We studied patients from phase II/III of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation registry between 2011 and 2020. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and major bleeding within 1 year following the AF. We trained the ML-GBDT model and compared its discrimination with the clinical scores in predicting patient outcomes. A total of 25 656 patients were included [mean age 70.3 years (SD 10.3); 44.8% female]. Within 1 year after AF, ischaemic stroke occurred in 215 (0.8%), major bleeding in 405 (1.6%), and death in 897 (3.5%) patients. Our model achieved an optimized area under the curve in predicting death (0.785, 95% CI: 0.757-0.813) compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.747, P = 0.007), ischaemic stroke (0.691, 0.626-0.756) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.613, P = 0.028), and major bleeding (0.698, 0.651-0.745) as opposed to HAS-BLED (0.607, P = 0.002), with improvement in net reclassification index (10.0, 12.5, and 23.6%, respectively).

Conclusion

The ML-GBDT model outperformed clinical risk scores in predicting the risks in patients with AF. This approach could be used as a single multifaceted holistic tool to optimize patient risk assessment and mitigate adverse outcomes when managing AF.

Accounting for time dependency in meta-analyses of concordance probability estimates

Recent years have seen the development of many novel scoring tools for disease prognosis and prediction. To become accepted for use in clinical applications, these tools have to be validated on external data. In practice, validation is often hampered by logistical issues, resulting in multiple small-sized validation studies. It is therefore necessary to synthesize the results of these studies using techniques for meta-analysis. Here we consider strategies for meta analyzing the concordance probability for time-to-event data ("C-index"), which has become a popular tool to evaluate the discriminatory power of prediction models with a right-censored outcome. We show that standard meta-analysis of the C-index may lead to biased results, as the magnitude of the concordance probability depends on the length of the time interval used for evaluation (defined e.g., by the follow-up time, which might differ considerably between studies). To address this issue, we propose a set of methods for random-effects meta-regression that incorporate time directly as covariate in the model equation. In addition to analyzing nonlinear time trends via fractional polynomial, spline, and exponential decay models, we provide recommendations on suitable transformations of the C-index before meta-regression. Our results suggest that the C-index is best meta-analyzed using fractional polynomial meta-regression with logit-transformed C-index values. Classical random-effects meta-analysis (not considering time as covariate) is demonstrated to be a suitable alternative when follow-up times are small. Our findings have implications for the reporting of C-index values in future studies, which should include information on the length of the time interval underlying the calculations.

Validation of CHA2DS2 VASc Score Predictability of Stroke and Systemic Embolization in a Middle Eastern Population with AF: The Jordan Atrial Fibrillation (JoFib) Study

Background and Purpose

CHA2DS2-VASc score is one of the most widely used scoring systems to assess the risk of systemic embolization and stroke in patients suffering from atrial fibrillation (Afib); furthermore, it is important in guiding their treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the predictivity of this score in the Jordanian population, build a deeper understanding of patients' demographic and risk factors, and assess the usefulness of anticoagulation as a preventive measure.

Methods

A total of 2020 patients with Afib registered in the Jordanian Atrial Fibrillation (JoFib) registry were enrolled in this study. All patients were followed up for 1 year to assess their susceptibility to develop cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and systemic embolism (SE). The association between CHA2DS2-VASc score and risk of development of stroke or systemic embolization was analyzed based on bivariate and adjusted multivariate analyses. The ROC curve was used to assess the predictivity of the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Results

The mean age of the study population was 67.8 years; 45.8% were males, and 81.8% were on anticoagulants. And, 71.8% had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥3. During the follow-up period of 1 year; 69 developed new CVA (mean age, 72.8 years), and 9 developed SE. A total of 276 patients died; 18 patients died (6.5% out of all deceased)% from CVA. A moderate predictive power of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was demonstrated through ROC curve analysis with C statistics of 0.689 CI (0.634 to 0.744) for predicting the development of SE or CVA at 1 year.

Conclusion

CHA2DS2-VASc showed a moderate predictivity of stroke, SE, and all-cause mortality at 1 year. The study suggested disregarding gender differences in deciding to initiate anticoagulant therapy.

Developing Clinical Prediction Models Using Primary Care Electronic Health Record Data: The Impact of Data Preparation Choices on Model Performance

Objective

To quantify prediction model performance in relation to data preparation choices when using electronic health records (EHR).

Study Design and Setting

Cox proportional hazards models were developed for predicting the first-ever main adverse cardiovascular events using Dutch primary care EHR data. The reference model was based on a 1-year run-in period, cardiovascular events were defined based on both EHR diagnosis and medication codes, and missing values were multiply imputed. We compared data preparation choices based on (i) length of the run-in period (2- or 3-year run-in); (ii) outcome definition (EHR diagnosis codes or medication codes only); and (iii) methods addressing missing values (mean imputation or complete case analysis) by making variations on the derivation set and testing their impact in a validation set.

Results

We included 89,491 patients in whom 6,736 first-ever main adverse cardiovascular events occurred during a median follow-up of 8 years. Outcome definition based only on diagnosis codes led to a systematic underestimation of risk (calibration curve intercept: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.83-0.84), while complete case analysis led to overestimation (calibration curve intercept: -0.52; 95% CI: -0.53 to -0.51). Differences in the length of the run-in period showed no relevant impact on calibration and discrimination.

Conclusion

Data preparation choices regarding outcome definition or methods to address missing values can have a substantial impact on the calibration of predictions, hampering reliable clinical decision support. This study further illustrates the urgency of transparent reporting of modeling choices in an EHR data setting.

A pragmatic dementia risk score for patients with mild cognitive impairment in a memory clinic population: Development and validation of a dementia risk score using routinely collected data

Introduction

This study aimed to develop and validate a 3-year dementia risk score in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) based on variables collected in routine clinical care.

Methods

The prediction score was trained and developed using data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Selection criteria included aged 55 years and older with MCI. Cox models were validated externally using two independent cohorts from the Prospective Registry of Persons with Memory Symptoms (PROMPT) registry and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database.

Results

Our Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia Risk (CIDER) score predicted dementia risk with c-indices of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.72), 0.61 (95% CI 0.59-0.63), and 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75), for the internally validated and the external validation PROMPT, and ADNI cohorts, respectively.

Discussion

The CIDER score could be used to inform clinicians and patients about the relative probabilities of developing dementia in patients with MCI.

Atrial fibrillation: trends in prevalence and antithrombotic prescriptions in the community

Introduction

In the past decade, the atrial fibrillation (AF) landscape, including the treatment modalities, has drastically changed. This raises the question how AF prevalence and choices in antithrombotic therapy prescription have developed in the community over time.

Methods

Routine care data from the Julius General Practitioners’ Network (JGPN) were used to calculate the yearly prevalence of AF and to quantify the percentage of all patients who were prescribed a platelet inhibitor, vitamin K antagonist (VKA), non-VKA oral anticoagulant (NOAC) or no antithrombotic medication. To explore whether certain patient characteristics are associated with selective prescription of oral anticoagulants (OAC), we applied logistic regression analyses.

Results

From 2008 through 2017, the JGPN database included 7459 unique AF patients. During this period, the prevalence of AF increased from 0.4% to 1.4%. The percentage of patients prescribed a VKA declined from 47% to 41%, whereas the percentage of patients prescribed a NOAC rose from 0% to 20%. In patients with new-onset AF, older age, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, vascular disease and dementia were independently associated with a higher likelihood of VKA rather than NOAC prescription. In 2017, 25% of all patients with AF and a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2 were not prescribed OAC therapy (i.e. 8% with platelet inhibitor monotherapy and 17% without any antithrombotic therapy).

Conclusion

Between 2008 and 2017, AF prevalence in the community more than tripled. Prescription patterns showed possible ‘channelling’ of VKAs over NOACs in frailer, elderly patients, whereas still about one in every four AF patients with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2 was not prescribed any prophylactic OAC therapy.

Supplementary Information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-022-01667-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Does CHA2DS2-VASc score predict mortality in chronic kidney disease?

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Assessment of cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality in CKD patients is of particular importance. CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes, prior stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and sex) score was originally formulated to predict the annual thromboembolic risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). The calculation of R2CHADS2 and R2CHA2DS2VASc scores awarded an additional 2 points for CrCl < 60 mL/min and GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m². Recent studies have investigated whether CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS ± VASC scores could be used to predict CV or all-cause mortality in patients with CKD. CHA2DS2-VASc score was proven to be a significant predictor of CV and all-cause mortality in CKD patients, and a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased mortality. These findings are quite promising, and they may help physicians to identify high-risk groups in this population.

Combining Clinical and Polygenic Risk Improves Stroke Prediction Among Individuals With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a five-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke. A portion of this risk is heritable; however, current risk stratification tools (CHA2DS2-VASc) do not include family history or genetic risk. We hypothesized that we could improve ischemic stroke prediction in patients with AF by incorporating polygenic risk scores (PRS).

METHODS

Using data from the largest available genome-wide association study in Europeans, we combined over half a million genetic variants to construct a PRS to predict ischemic stroke in patients with AF. We externally validated this PRS in independent data from the UK Biobank, both independently and integrated with clinical risk factors. The integrated PRS and clinical risk factors risk tool had the greatest predictive ability.

RESULTS

Compared with the currently recommended risk tool (CHA2DS2-VASc), the integrated tool significantly improved Net Reclassification Index (2.3% [95% CI, 1.3%-3.0%]) and fit (χ2P=0.002). Using this improved tool, >115 000 people with AF would have improved risk classification in the United States. Independently, PRS was a significant predictor of ischemic stroke in patients with AF prospectively (hazard ratio, 1.13 per 1 SD [95% CI, 1.06-1.23]). Lastly, polygenic risk scores were uncorrelated with clinical risk factors (Pearson correlation coefficient, -0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF, there appears to be a significant association between PRS and risk of ischemic stroke. The greatest predictive ability was found with the integration of PRS and clinical risk factors; however, the prediction of stroke remains challenging.

Value of left atrial diameter with CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting left atrial/left atrial appendage thrombosis in non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Fundamentos

A fibrilação atrial é a arritmia persistente mais comum e é o principal fator que leva ao tromboembolismo.

Objetivo

Investigar o valor do diâmetro do átrio esquerdo combinado com o escore CHA2DS2-VASc na predição da trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo na fibrilação atrial não valvar.

Métodos

Trata-se de estudo retrospectivo. 238 pacientes com fibrilação atrial não valvar foram selecionados e divididos em dois grupos: trombose e não trombose. Determinou-se o escore CHA2DS2-VASc. Valores de p<0,05 foram considerados estatisticamente significativos.

Resultados

A análise de regressão logística multivariada revelou que histórico de acidente vascular cerebral/ataque isquêmico transitório, doença vascular, escore CHA2DS2-VASc, DAE, DDFVE e FEVE foram fatores de risco independentes para trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo (p<0,05). A análise da curva ROC ( Receiver Operating Characteristic ) revelou que a área sob a curva para o escore CHA2DS2-VASc na predição de trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo foi de 0,593 quando o escore CHA2DS2-VASc foi ≥3 pontos, e a sensibilidade e especificidade foram 86,5% e 32,6%, respectivamente, enquanto a área sob a curva para o DAE na predição de trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo foi 0,786 quando o DAE foi ≥44,17 mm, e a sensibilidade e especificidade foram 89,6% e 60,9%, respectivamente. Entre os diferentes grupos CHA2DS2-VASc, a taxa de incidência de trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo em pacientes com DAE ≥44,17 mm foi maior do que em pacientes com DAE <44,17 mm (p <0,05).

Conclusão

O escore CHA2DS2-VASc e o DAE estão correlacionados com a trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo na fibrilação atrial não valvar. Para pacientes com escore CHA2DS2-VASc de 0 ou 1, quando o DAE é ≥44,17 mm, o risco de trombose atrial esquerda/trombose de apêndice atrial esquerdo permaneceu alto. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2020; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)

Assessment of the ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system to grade left atrial function by 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography

Background

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc scoring system is correlated with left atrial (LA) reservoir function in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) rhythm or paroxysmal AF. We assessed the ability of CHA₂DS₂-VASc to grade LA function in patients with sinus rhythm who were candidates for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

Methods

This cross-sectional study recruited 340 consecutive candidates for CABG and categorized them according to their CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores as mild-, moderate-, and high-risk score groups with 34 (10%), 83 (24%), and 223 (66%) patients, respectively. LA function was evaluated via 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography in terms of global longitudinal strain and strain rate during the reservoir, conduit, and contraction phases. In-hospital mortality, postoperative AF, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and prolonged mechanical ventilation were assessed.

Results

LA strain and strain rate during the reservoir phase was statistically significantly lower in the high-risk score group than the low- and moderate-risk score groups (27.8 ± 6.9% vs 31.0 ± 5.0% vs 29.8 ± 6.1%, respectively; P = 0.004 and 2.6 ± 0.7 s⁻¹ vs 2.9 ± 0.6 s⁻¹ vs 2.9 ± 0.6 s⁻¹, correspondingly; P = 0.009) and regarding LA strain and strain rate during the conduit phase (9.7 [7.1–12.5]% vs 12.9 [9.4–15.1]% vs 11.5 [9.1–13.8]%, correspondingly; P < 0.001 and 2.1 [1.6–2.7] s⁻¹ vs 2.8 [2.4–3.6] s⁻¹ vs 2.6 [2.2–3.0] s⁻¹, respectively; P < 0.001). In addition, LA strain rate during the conduit phase was lower in the moderate-risk score group than the low-risk score group. After adjustments for possible confounders, these differences remained statistically significant. The risk of postoperative AF and prolonged ICU stay was highest in the high-risk score group (relative risk = 9.67 (1.31–71.43) and 8.05 (1.08–60.16), respectively; P = 0.026 and P = 0.042, respectively).

Conclusions

LA reservoir and conduit functions decreased in the high-risk score group, which was accompanied by an increased risk of postoperative AF and prolonged ICU stay.

Novel approach to meta-analysis of tests and clinical prediction rules with three or more risk categories

OBJECTIVE

Multichotomous tests have three or more outcome or risk categories, and can provide richer information and a better fit with clinical decision-making than dichotomous tests. Our objective is to present a fully developed approach to the meta-analysis of multichotomous clinical prediction rules (CPRs) and tests, including meta-analysis of stratum specific likelihood ratios.

STUDY DESIGN

We have developed a novel approach to the meta-analysis of likelihood ratios for multichotomous tests that avoids the need to dichotomise outcome categories, and demonstrate its application to a sample CPR. We also review previously reported approaches to the meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) and meta-analysis of a measure of calibration (observed:expected) for multichotomous tests or CPRs.

RESULTS

Using data from 10 studies of the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) risk score for prostate cancer recurrence, we calculated summary estimates of the likelihood ratios for low, moderate and high risk groups of 0.40 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.49), 1.24 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.55) and 4.47 (95% CI 3.21 to 6.23), respectively. Applying the summary estimates of the likelihood ratios for each risk group to the overall prevalence of cancer recurrence in a population allows one to estimate the likelihood of recurrence for each risk group in that population.

CONCLUSION

An approach to meta-analysis of multichotomous tests or CPRs is presented. A spreadsheet for data preparation and code for R and Stata are provided for other researchers to download and use. Combined with summary estimates of the AUROCC and calibration, this is a comprehensive strategy for meta-analysis of multichotomous tests and CPRs.

Atrial fibrillation in low- and middle-income countries: a narrative review

Preventing premature non-communicable disease mortality necessitates a thorough review of one of the most important risk factors for stroke, which is atrial fibrillation (AF). The latter and AF-related stroke are still considered to be problems of high-income countries and are frequently overlooked in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this narrative review, we provide an overview of studies that evaluated at least one of the following determinants of AF burden in LMICs: current epidemiology and trends, stroke prevention, health outcomes, and economic burden. Studies focusing on samples close to the general population (including community- and primary care-based samples) indicate sex-specific prevalence rates up to 7.4% in LMICs. Although AF prevalence is still higher in high-income countries than LMICs, the gap in AF burden between these two groups has been reducing in the past three decades. Oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for stroke prevention is underused in LMICs, and there are little data on OAC therapy in relation to stroke risk scores, such as CHA2DS2-VASc. Available data also points to higher morbidity and mortality for patient with AF in LMICs than their counterparts in high-income countries. Data on the consequent economic burden in LMICs is scarce, but it is reasonable to consider it will follow the same trend as that observed for health outcomes. Raising the visibility of AF as a public health problem in LMICs is necessary as a first step to providing adequate care for patients with this condition.

Impact of atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients admitted to a stepdown unit

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available on the clinical course of patients with history of atrial fibrillation (AF) when admitted in an intensive care environment. We aimed to describe the occurrence of major adverse events in AF patients admitted to a stepdown care unit (SDU) and to analyse clinical factors associated with outcomes, impact of dicumarolic oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy impact and performance of clinical risk scores in this setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Single-centre, observational retrospective analysis on a population of subjects with AF history admitted to a SDU. Therapeutic failure (composite of transfer to ICU or death) was considered the main study outcome. Occurrence of stroke and major bleeding (MH) was considered as secondary outcomes. The performance of clinical risk scores was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 1430 consecutive patients were enrolled. 194 (13.6%) reported the main outcome. Using multivariate logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.05), acute coronary syndrome (OR:3.10, 95% CI: 1.88-5.12), cardiogenic shock (OR:10.06, 95% CI: 5.37-18.84), septic shock (OR:5.19,95%CI:3.29-18.84), acute respiratory failure (OR:2.49, 95% CI: 1.67-3.64) and OAC use (OR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.02-2.55) were independently associated with main outcome. OAC prescription was associated with stroke risk reduction and to both MH and main outcome risk increase. CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc (c-index: 0.545, P = .117 for stroke) and HAS-BLED (c-index:0.503, P = .900 for MH) did not significantly predict events occurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill AF patients admitted to a SDU, adverse outcomes are highly prevalent. OAC use is associated to an increased risk of therapeutic failure, clinical scores seem unhelpful in predicting stroke and MH, suggesting a highly individualized approach in AF management in this setting.

Long-term incidence and predictive factors of thromboembolic events after a cryoballoon ablation for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Long-term outcomes in terms of thromboembolic events (TEs) are poorly described after cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation (cryo-PVI) for atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated the long-term incidence and predictive factors of TE after cryo-PVI.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent cryo-PVI for paroxysmal or persistent AF between November 2012 and October 2017 were included. They were prospectively followed for at least 12 months in the ablation center and then by their cardiologist. Data on all ischemic events (stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), systemic embolism) were collected.

RESULTS

In total, 450 patients (78% men, median age 61 years) were included. The mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was 1.6 ± 1.3 and 26 patients (6%) had a history of stroke/TIA before the procedure. OAT was discontinued for 75 patients (17%) after the procedure, among whom 50 (67%) had no indication for long-term anticoagulation. Six patients experienced an ischemic event, all considered as a TE: three strokes, two TIAs, and one acute lower-limb ischemia. The mean follow up was 30 months. Thus, the incidence of TE was 0.53%/year. Three of the six patients who experienced a TE had no recurrence of atrial arrhythmia documented before, at the time, or after the event. All patients who experienced a TE had a class I or class IIa indication for long-term anticoagulation. After multivariate analysis, the CHA₂DS₂-VASc Score (p = .0005) was a predictor of TEs.

CONCLUSION

The long-term incidence of TEs after cryo-PVI was 0.53%/year. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc Score was the only independent predictor of TEs.

Antithrombotic management of patients with atrial fibrillation-Dutch anticoagulant initiatives anno 2020

In recent years, as more and more experience has been gained with prescribing direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), new research initiatives have emerged in the Netherlands to improve the safety and appropriateness of DOAC treatment for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). These initiatives address several contemporary unresolved issues, such as inappropriate dosing, non-adherence and the long-term management of DOAC treatment. Dutch initiatives have also contributed to the development and improvement of risk prediction models. Although fewer bleeding complications (notably intracranial bleeding) are in general seen with DOACs in comparison with vitamin K antagonists, to successfully identify patients with high bleeding risk and to tailor anticoagulant treatment accordingly to mitigate this increased bleeding risk, is one of the research aims of recent and future years. This review highlights contributions from the Netherlands that aim to address these unresolved issues regarding the anticoagulant management in AF in daily practice, and provides a narrative overview of contemporary stroke and bleeding risk assessment strategies.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score as a Predictor for Left Atrial Thrombus or Spontaneous Echo Contrast in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis

Objective

This meta-analysis aimed at exploring the predictive value of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for the left atrial thrombus (LAT) or left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library, and Chinese core journals of the CNKI and Wanfang databases were searched to identify all the relevant papers that were published up to January 2020. The data were extracted for pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), heterogeneity, subgroup, publication bias, and sensitivity analysis.

Results

Overall, 15 studies containing 6223 patients with NVAF were enrolled. All studies were evaluated for LAT, and 12 studies were evaluated for LASEC. The pooled analysis using a random-effects model showed that a high CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was related with LAT/LASEC (pooled OR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.35–1.88, P < 0.001) with high heterogeneity (I² = 76.9%, P < 0.001) and LAT (pooled OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.44–2.33, P < 0.001) with high heterogeneity (I² = 79.4%, P < 0.001). The subgroup analysis demonstrated that the sample size may be the main source of heterogeneity. Although the Begg's funnel plot based on 15 studies for LAT/LASEC (P = 0.029) and 12 studies for LAT (P = 0.046) indicated the presence of publication bias among the included studies, the trim-and-fill method verified the stability of the pooled outcomes. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that all effects were stable.

Conclusion

The results of this meta-analysis showed that the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is related with LAT and LASEC in patients with NVAF. However, more studies are warranted to address this issue.

Evidence synthesis in prognosis research

Over the past few years, evidence synthesis has become essential to investigate and improve the generalizability of medical research findings. This strategy often involves a meta-analysis to formally summarize quantities of interest, such as relative treatment effect estimates. The use of meta-analysis methods is, however, less straightforward in prognosis research because substantial variation exists in research objectives, analysis methods and the level of reported evidence. We present a gentle overview of statistical methods that can be used to summarize data of prognostic factor and prognostic model studies. We discuss how aggregate data, individual participant data, or a combination thereof can be combined through meta-analysis methods. Recent examples are provided throughout to illustrate the various methods.

Intracerebral hemorrhage outcome: A comprehensive update

Non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with a significant global burden of disease, and despite being proportionally less frequent than ischemic stroke, in 2010 it was associated with greater worldwide disability-adjusted life years lost. The focus of outcome assessment after ICH has been mortality in most studies, because of the high early case fatality which reaches 40% in some population-based studies. The most robust and consistent predictors of early mortality include age, severity of neurological impairment, hemorrhage volume and antithrombotic therapy at the time of the event. Long-term outcome assessment is multifaceted and includes not only mortality and functional outcome, but also patient self-assessment of the health-related quality of life, occurrence of cognitive impairment, psychiatric disorders, epileptic seizures, recurrent ICH and subsequent thromboembolic events. Several scores which predict mortality and functional outcome after ICH have been validated and are useful in the daily clinical practice, however they must be used in combination with the clinical judgment for individualized patients. Management of patients with ICH both in the acute and chronic phases, requires health care professionals to have a comprehensive and updated perspective on outcome, which informs decisions that are needed to be taken together with the patient and next of kin.

Effectiveness of CHA2DS2-VASc based decision support on stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: A cluster randomised trial in general practice

BACKGROUND

Guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) recommend the CHA₂DS₂-VASc rule for anticoagulant decision-making, but underuse exists. We studied the impact of an automated decision support on stroke prevention in patients with AF in a cluster randomised trial in general practice.

METHODS

Intervention practices were provided with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc based anticoagulant treatment recommendation. Reference practices provided care as usual. The primary outcome was incidence of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and/or thromboembolism (TE). Secondary outcomes were bleeding and the proportion of patients on guideline recommended anticoagulant treatment.

RESULTS

In total, 1129 AF patients were included in the 19 intervention practices and 1226 AF patients in the 19 reference practices. The median age was 77 (interquartile range (IQR) 68-75) years, the median CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was 3.0 (IQR 2.0-5.0). Underuse of anticoagulants in patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2 was 6.6%. After a median follow-up of 2.7 years (IQR 2.3-3.0), the incidence rate per 100 person-years of ischaemic stroke/TIA/TE was 1.96 in the intervention group and 1.42 in the reference group (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% C.I. 0.8-2.1). No difference was observed in the rate of bleeding (0.79 versus 0.82), or in the underuse (7.2% versus 8.2%) or overuse (8.0% versus 7.9%) of anticoagulation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study in patients with AF in general practice, underuse of anticoagulants was relatively low. Providing practitioners with CHA₂DS₂-VASc based decision support did not result in a reduction in stroke incidence, affect bleeding risk or anticoagulant over- or underuse.