Effects of temperature on the life cycle, expansion, and dispersion of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in three cities in Paraiba, Brazil

Evidence for transient deleterious thermal acclimation in field recapture rates of an invasive tropical species, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Knowing how environmental conditions affect performance traits in pest insects is important to improve pest management strategies. It can be informative for monitoring, but also for control programs where insects are mass-reared, and field-released. Here, we investigated how adult thermal acclimation in sterile Bactrocera dorsalis affects dispersal and recapture rates in the field using a mark-release-recapture method. We also considered how current abiotic factors may affect recapture rates and interact with thermal history. We found that acclimation at 20 or 30 °C for 4 d prior to release reduced the number of recaptures in comparison with the 25 °C control group, but with no differences between groups in the willingness to disperse upon release. However, the deleterious effects of acclimation were only detectable in the first week following release, whereafter only the recent abiotic conditions explained recapture rates. In addition, we found that recent field conditions contributed more than thermal history to explain patterns of recaptures. The two most important variables affecting the number of recaptures were the maximum temperature and the average relative humidity experienced in the 24 h preceding trapping. Our results add to the handful of studies that have considered the effect of thermal acclimation on insect field performance, but notably lend support to the deleterious acclimation hypothesis among the various hypotheses that have been proposed. Finally, this study shows that there are specific abiotic conditions (cold/hot and dry) in which recaptures will be reduced, which may therefore bias estimates of wild population size.

Association between ambient temperature and risk of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2011 to 2019

Previous studies on temperature and infectious diseases primarily focused on individual disease types, yielding inconsistent conclusions. This study collected monthly data on notifiable infectious disease cases and meteorological variables across 7 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases within each province, and random meta-analysis was applied to evaluate the pooled effect. Extreme hot temperature (the 97.5th percentile) was positively associated with the risk of respiratory infectious diseases with the relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.01-2.08). Conversely, extreme cold temperature (the 2.5th percentile) was negatively associated with intestinal infectious diseases and zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases, reporting RRs of 0.43 (95%CI: 0.30-0.60) and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.38-0.57), respectively. This study described the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases with different transmission routes, informing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for temperature-related infectious diseases.

Temperature Influence on Aedes aegypti Oviposition in the San Joaquin Valley of California

The establishment and oviposition of Aedes aegypti can vary from one location to another partially due to differing temperature and precipitation. In 2017, Ae. aegypti was first detected in Merced in the Central Valley of California. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of temperature and precipitation on oviposition of Ae. aegypti, and to determine the beginning and end of the seasonal activity of Ae. aegypti in Merced. The study site consisted of a residential area in the north-east region of Merced where Ae. aegypti was first detected in Merced County. Fifty-four residences were randomly selected as ovitrap sites. Ovitraps were placed at field sites weekly for 12 months, from September 27, 2017, to September 27, 2018. Each week, ovitraps were inspected for the presence of mosquito eggs. Egg counts were used to calculate the following oviposition indices: the ovitrap index (OI) (percent of traps positive) and the egg density index (EDI) (eggs/positive traps). Oviposition occurred primarily from May through October, above a minimum temperature of 10°C, and when almost no rainfall occurred (0.5 mm total). During the year, the percent of positive traps per month ranged from approximately 1.2-67.3%, with highest values in June to October (43.9-67.3%). The highest mean monthly EDI was from July to October (34-44.6) and peaked in October at 44.6 eggs/trap. The EDI values are similar to other locations where Ae. aegypti transmits endemic vector-borne disease. These findings provide baseline data for Ae. aegypti control in Merced and the Central Valley of California.

Large-scale releases and establishment of wMel Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes throughout the Cities of Bello, Medellín and Itagüí, Colombia

BACKGROUND

The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and has been shown to reduce the transmission of dengue and other Aedes-borne viruses. Here we report the entomological results from phased, large-scale releases of Wolbachia infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes throughout three contiguous cities located in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Local wMel Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were generated and then released in an initial release pilot area in 2015-2016, which resulted in the establishment of Wolbachia in the local mosquito populations. Subsequent large-scale releases, mainly involving vehicle-based releases of adult mosquitoes along publicly accessible roads and streets, were undertaken across 29 comunas throughout Bello, Medellín and Itagüí Colombia between 2017-2022. In 9 comunas these were supplemented by egg releases that were undertaken by staff or community members. By the most recent monitoring, Wolbachia was found to be stable and established at consistent levels in local mosquito populations (>60% prevalence) in the majority (67%) of areas.

CONCLUSION

These results, from the largest contiguous releases of wMel Wolbachia mosquitoes to date, highlight the operational feasibility of implementing the method in large urban settings. Based on results from previous studies, we expect that Wolbachia establishment will be sustained long term. Ongoing monitoring will confirm Wolbachia persistence in local mosquito populations and track its establishment in the remaining areas.

Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics

Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data before and after the start of the 2016 outbreak, forecasting occurrence and incidence for all municipalities of Brazil weekly. Different predictor sets were found to produce most accurate forecasts in each time period, and forecast accuracy was high for both time periods. Temperature, precipitation, and previous YF burden were most influential predictors among models. Minimum, maximum, mean, and range of weekly temperature, precipitation, and humidity contributed to forecasts, with optimal lag times of 2, 6, and 7 weeks depending on time period. Results from this study show the use of environmental predictors in providing regular forecasts of YF burden and producing nationwide forecasts. Weekly forecasts, which can be produced using the forecast model developed in this study, are beneficial for informing immediate preparedness measures.

The effect of temperature on dengue virus transmission by Aedes mosquitoes

Dengue is prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. As an arbovirus disease, it is mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. According to the previous studies, temperature is closely related to the survival of Aedes mosquitoes, the proliferation of dengue virus (DENV) and the vector competence of Aedes to transmit DENV. This review describes the correlations between temperature and dengue epidemics, and explores the potential reasons including the distribution and development of Aedes mosquitoes, the structure of DENV, and the vector competence of Aedes mosquitoes. In addition, the immune and metabolic mechanism are discussed on how temperature affects the vector competence of Aedes mosquitoes to transmit DENV.

Mathematical modeling of Dengue virus serotypes propagation in Mexico

The Dengue virus (DENV) constitutes a major vector borne virus disease worldwide. Prediction of the DENV spread dynamics, prevalence and infection rates are crucial elements to guide the public health services effort towards meaningful actions. The existence of four DENV serotypes further complicates the virus proliferation forecast. The different serotypes have varying clinical impacts, and the symptomatology of the infection is dependent on the infection history of the patient. Therefore, changes in the prevalent DENV serotype found in one location have a profound impact on the regional public health. The prediction of the spread and intensity of infection of the individual DENV serotypes in specific locations would allow the authorities to plan local pesticide spray to control the vector as well as the purchase of specific antibody therapy. Here we used a mathematical model to predict serotype-specific DENV prevalence and overall case burden in Mexico.

Singapore's 5 decades of dengue prevention and control-Implications for global dengue control

This paper summarises the lessons learnt in dengue epidemiology, risk factors, and prevention in Singapore over the last half a century, during which Singapore evolved from a city of 1.9 million people to a highly urban globalised city-state with a population of 5.6 million. Set in a tropical climate, urbanisation among green foliage has created ideal conditions for the proliferation of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the mosquito vectors that transmit dengue. A vector control programme, largely for malaria, was initiated as early as 1921, but it was only in 1966 that the Vector Control Unit (VCU) was established to additionally tackle dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) that was first documented in the 1960s. Centred on source reduction and public education, and based on research into the bionomics and ecology of the vectors, the programme successfully reduced the Aedes House Index (HI) from 48% in 1966 to <5% in the 1970s. Further enhancement of the programme, including through legislation, suppressed the Aedes HI to around 1% from the 1990s. The current programme is characterised by 4 key features: (i) proactive inter-epidemic surveillance and control that is stepped up during outbreaks; (ii) risk-based prevention and intervention strategies based on advanced data analytics; (iii) coordinated inter-sectoral cooperation between the public, private, and people sectors; and (iv) evidence-based adoption of new tools and strategies. Dengue seroprevalence and force of infection (FOI) among residents have substantially and continuously declined over the 5 decades. This is consistent with the observation that dengue incidence has been delayed to adulthood, with severity highest among the elderly. Paradoxically, the number of reported dengue cases and outbreaks has increased since the 1990s with record-breaking epidemics. We propose that Singapore's increased vulnerability to outbreaks is due to low levels of immunity in the population, constant introduction of new viral variants, expanding urban centres, and increasing human density. The growing magnitude of reported outbreaks could also be attributed to improved diagnostics and surveillance, which at least partially explains the discord between rising trend in cases and the continuous reduction in dengue seroprevalence. Changing global and local landscapes, including climate change, increasing urbanisation and global physical connectivity are expected to make dengue control even more challenging. The adoption of new vector surveillance and control tools, such as the Gravitrap and Wolbachia technology, is important to impede the growing threat of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases.

Assessing the impact of climate conditions on the distribution of mosquito species in Qatar

Qatar is a peninsular country with predominantly hot and humid weather, with 88% of the total population being immigrants. As such, it leaves the country liable to the introduction and dissemination of vector-borne diseases, in part due to the presence of native arthropod vectors. Qatar's weather is expected to become warmer with the changing climatic conditions across the globe. Environmental factors such as humidity and temperature contribute to the breeding and distribution of different types of mosquito species in a given region. If proper and timely precautions are not taken, a high rate of particular mosquito species can result in the transmission of various vector-borne diseases. In this study, we analyzed the environmental impact on the probability of occurrence of different mosquito species collected from several different sites in Qatar. The Naive Bayes model was used to calculate the posterior probability for various mosquito species. Further, the resulting Naive Bayes predictions were used to define the favorable environmental circumstances for identified mosquito species. The findings of this study will help in the planning and implementation of an active surveillance system and preventive measures to curb the spread of mosquitoes in Qatar.

Surveillance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) as a Method for Prevention of Arbovirus Transmission in Urban and Seaport Areas of the Southern Coast of Brazil

Entomological surveillance is a traditional method to measure presence, distribution, and seasonal variation of vectors in urban areas, and is essential to targeted control activities to prevent arbovirus transmission. Ovitraps as one of the main components of surveillance programs, enable determination of female oviposition behavior, as well as identification of seasonal variations of the vector. The goals of this study were 1) to detect the mosquitos (Aedes aegypti Linnaeus) and (Aedes albopictus Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae), in Paranaguá city, 2) to assess ovitrap positive index (OPI), egg density index (EDI), and their relationship with meteorological variables, and 3) to evaluate the vertical transmission of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The study was carried out in urban areas of Paranaguá city, an important port region of Brazil, from June 2017 to November 2018. The city was divided into 16 area-clusters. Three-hundred and thirty-one ovitraps were installed monthly, remaining for four days in selected places. Kernel density maps were done to compare the spatiotemporal distribution of collected eggs. Areas which maintained constant oviposition associated with vector activity were identified and were found to overlap the area-clusters with the highest EDI. As viral RNA was not detected, vertical transmission was likely not a maintenance mechanism of arbovirus circulation in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus vectors. This study reiterates the importance, efficiency, and feasibility of ovitraps to monitor the presence and dynamics of Aedes spp. populations.

Effects of constant temperature and daily fluctuating temperature on the transovarial transmission and life cycle of Aedes albopictus infected with Zika virus

Introduction

Numerous studies on the mosquito life cycle and transmission efficacy were performed under constant temperatures. Mosquito in wild, however, is not exposed to constant temperature but is faced with temperature variation on a daily basis.

Methods

In the present study, the mosquito life cycle and Zika virus transmission efficiency were conducted at daily fluctuating temperatures and constant temperatures. Aedes albopictus was infected with the Zika virus orally. The oviposition and survival of the infected mosquitoes and hatching rate, the growth cycle of larvae at each stage, and the infection rate (IR) of the progeny mosquitoes were performed at two constant temperatures (23°C and 31°C) and a daily temperature range (DTR, 23-31°C).

Results

It showed that the biological parameters of mosquitoes under DTR conditions were significantly different from that under constant temperatures. Mosquitoes in DTR survived longer, laid more eggs (mean number: 36.5 vs. 24.2), and had a higher hatching rate (72.3% vs. 46.5%) but a lower pupation rate (37.9% vs. 81.1%) and emergence rate (72.7% vs. 91.7%) than that in the high-temperature group (constant 31°C). When compared to the low-temperature group (constant 23°C), larvae mosquitoes in DTR developed faster (median days: 9 vs. 23.5) and adult mosquitoes carried higher Zika viral RNA load (median log₁₀ RNA copies/μl: 5.28 vs. 3.86). However, the temperature or temperature pattern has no effect on transovarial transmission.

Discussion

Those results indicated that there are significant differences between mosquito development and reproductive cycles under fluctuating and constant temperature conditions, and fluctuating temperature is more favorable for mosquitos' survival and reproduction. The data would support mapping and predicting the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in the future and establishing an early warning system for Zika virus epidemics.

The Influence of Anthropogenic and Environmental Disturbances on Parameter Estimation of a Dengue Transmission Model

Some deterministic models deal with environmental conditions and use parameter estimations to obtain experimental parameters, but they do not consider anthropogenic or environmental disturbances, e.g., chemical control or climatic conditions. Even more, they usually use theoretical or measured in-lab parameters without worrying about uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, or changes in control inputs. Thus, in this study, we estimate parameters (including chemical control parameters) and confidence contours under uncertainty conditions using data from the municipality of Bello (Colombia) during 2010-2014, which includes two epidemic outbreaks. Our study shows that introducing non-periodic pulse inputs into the mathematical model allows us to: (i) perform parameter estimation by fitting real data of consecutive dengue outbreaks, (ii) highlight the importance of chemical control as a method of vector control, and (iii) reproduce the endemic behavior of dengue. We described a methodology for parameter and sub-contour box estimation under uncertainties and performed reliable simulations showing the behavior of dengue spread in different scenarios.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of temperature on the development and survival of the Aedes mosquito

Introduction

The Aedes mosquito species, which are the vectors for the transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) to humans, are becoming increasingly susceptible to the formidable effects of influential factors, especially temperature. However, there are still very few studies that have systematically reviewed the existing literature. Hence, in the present study, a systematic literature review and meta-analysis was conducted into the effects of temperature on dengue vectors.

Method

Several research methodologies were incorporated into the current study, and a review was carried out using PRISMA as a guide. The publications for this study were chosen from two prominent databases, Scopus and Web of Science. All of the studies were assessed, reviewed, and evaluated independently by two reviewers. The meta-analysis tool, Review Manager (RevMan Copenhagen Version 5.4.1), was used to record the extracted data for the meta-analysis. Moran's I ² and a funnel plot were utilized to measure heterogeneity, and publication bias was investigated. A 95% confidence interval (CI) and overall risk difference (RD) were estimated using a random-effects model.

Result and discussion

As a consequence of the search efforts, a total of 46 articles were selected for inclusion in the systematic review and meta-analysis. This review was divided into five major themes, based on a thematic analysis: (i) hatching rate, (ii) development time, (iii) longevity, (iv) survival rate, and (v) wing morphology. In addition, the development time, survival rate, and wing morphology revealed significantly higher risk differences between the maximum and minimum temperatures (RD: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.36; p = < 0.00001; RD: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.14; p < 0.0001; and RD: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.12; p = 0.006, respectively). This study makes several substantial contributions to the body of knowledge and to practical applications. Finally, a number of recommendations are made at the conclusion of this research for the future reference of researchers.

Community surveillance of Aedes albopictus associated with Wolbachia detection in low-rise residential areas in Selangor, Malaysia

The study assessed the distribution of Malaysian Ae. albopictus adults associated with Wolbachia detection in low-rise residential areas using a modified sticky ovitrap (MSO). The relationship between Ae. albopictus and climatological parameters were also determined. Fifty-two weeks of surveillance using 273 MSOs were conducted in four installation areas of eleven sampling sites. Specimens were subjected to PCR using wsp-specific primers for Wolbachia detection. The relationship between climatological parameters and Ae. albopictus captured were analyzed using Spearman rank correlation coefficient test. The majority of Ae. albopictus were captured in residential houses (87%), followed by playgrounds or parks (11.5%), guardhouses (1%), and community halls (0.5%). Most of the specimens (92%) were superinfected with wAlbA and wAlbB strains. A positive correlation with no significant association was found for rainfall (r = 0.015, P = 0.072), relative humidity (r = 0.005, P = 0.526), minimum temperature (r = 0.005, P = 0.516), and mean temperature (r = 0.003, P = 0.689). MSO effectively captured a high number of Ae. albopictus that was determined to be the predominant mosquito species found in low-rise residential areas. The adult collection is not only influenced by climatological parameters but also by other factors, including environmental conditions and general sanitation status.

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally.

OBJECTIVES

A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y.

METHODS

The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs.

RESULTS

We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.

DISCUSSION

These results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on Aedes densities. Major sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068.

Dengue Prediction in Latin America Using Machine Learning and the One Health Perspective: A Literature Review

Dengue fever is a serious and growing public health problem in Latin America and elsewhere, intensified by climate change and human mobility. This paper reviews the approaches to the epidemiological prediction of dengue fever using the One Health perspective, including an analysis of how Machine Learning techniques have been applied to it and focuses on the risk factors for dengue in Latin America to put the broader environmental considerations into a detailed understanding of the small-scale processes as they affect disease incidence. Determining that many factors can act as predictors for dengue outbreaks, a large-scale comparison of different predictors over larger geographic areas than those currently studied is lacking to determine which predictors are the most effective. In addition, it provides insight into techniques of Machine Learning used for future predictive models, as well as general workflow for Machine Learning projects of dengue fever.

Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence

Though instances of arthropod-borne (arbo)virus co-infection have been documented clinically, the overall incidence of arbovirus co-infection and its drivers are not well understood. Now that dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses are all in circulation across tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, it is important to understand the environmental and biological conditions that make co-infections more likely to occur. To understand this, we developed a mathematical model of co-circulation of two arboviruses, with transmission parameters approximating dengue, Zika and/or chikungunya viruses, and co-infection possible in both humans and mosquitoes. We examined the influence of seasonal timing of arbovirus co-circulation on the extent of co-infection. By undertaking a sensitivity analysis of this model, we examined how biological factors interact with seasonality to determine arbovirus co-infection transmission and prevalence. We found that temporal synchrony of the co-infecting viruses and average temperature were the most influential drivers of co-infection incidence. Our model highlights the synergistic effect of co-transmission from mosquitoes, which leads to more than double the number of co-infections than would be expected in a scenario without co-transmission. Our results suggest that appreciable numbers of co-infections are unlikely to occur except in tropical climates when the viruses co-occur in time and space.

Effects of Elevated Temperatures on the Growth and Development of Adult Anopheles gambiae (s.l.) (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes

Higher temperatures expected in a future warmer climate could adversely affect the growth and development of mosquitoes. This study investigated the effects of elevated temperatures on longevity, gonotrophic cycle length, biting rate, fecundity, and body size of Anopheles gambiae (s.l.) (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes. Anopheles gambiae (s.l.) eggs obtained from laboratory established colonies were reared under eight temperature regimes (25, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, and 40°C), and 80 ± 10% RH. All adults were allowed to feed on a 10% sugar solution soaked in cotton wool; however, some mosquitoes were provided blood meal using guinea pig. Longevity was estimated for both blood-fed and non-blood-fed mosquitoes and analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. One-way ANOVA was used to test the effect of temperature on gonotrophic cycle length, biting rate, and fecundity. Adult measurement data were log-transformed and analyzed using ordinary least square regression with robust standard errors. Increasing temperature significantly decreased the longevity of both blood-fed (Log-rank test; X2(4) = 904.15, P < 0.001) and non-blood-fed (Log-rank test; X2(4) = 1163.60, P < 0.001) mosquitoes. In addition, the fecundity of mosquitoes decreased significantly (ANOVA; F(2,57) = 3.46, P = 0.038) with an increase in temperature. Body size (β = 0.14, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.12, P < 0.001) and proboscis length (β = 0.13, 95% CI, 0.17, 0.09, P < 0.001) significantly decreased with increasing temperature from 25 to 34°C. Increased temperatures expected in a future warmer climate could cause some unexpected effects on mosquitoes by directly influencing population dynamics and malaria transmission.

Differential Hatching, Development, Oviposition, and Longevity Patterns among Colombian Aedes aegypti Populations

Simple Summary

Aedes aegypti is a mosquito that transmits viruses responsible for several diseases in humans, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. It is crucial to study mosquito populations from different countries and regions because control of disease transmission with insecticides can be more effective if adjusted to each population’s characteristics. For this reason, we determined several features of mosquitoes captured in different cities of Colombia: Neiva, Bello, Itagüí, and Riohacha. These included the length of their lifespan, the number of eggs they lay, and the stages in which they die. We found specific patterns for each population. This knowledge will help control programs determine the optimal times to apply insecticides and make surveillance, as well as the type of insecticide used.

Abstract

Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are arboviral diseases for which there are no effective therapies or vaccines. The only way to avoid their transmission is by controlling the vector Aedes aegypti, but insecticide resistance limits this strategy. To generate relevant information for surveillance and control mechanisms, we determined life cycle parameters, including longevity, fecundity, and mortality, of Colombian Ae. aegypti populations from four different geographical regions: Neiva, Bello, Itagüí, and Riohacha. When reared at 28 °C, Bello had the shortest development time, and Riohacha had the longest. Each mosquito population had its own characteristic fecundity pattern during four gonotrophic cycles. The survival curves of each population were significantly different, with Riohacha having the longest survival in both males and females and Bello the shortest. High mortality was observed in mosquitoes from Neiva in the egg stage and for Bello in the pupae stage. Finally, when mosquitoes from Neiva and Bello were reared at 35 °C, development times and mortality were severely affected. In conclusion, each population has a unique development pattern with an innate trace in their biological characteristics that confers vulnerability in specific stages of development.

Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India

India has witnessed a five-fold increase in dengue incidence in the past decade. However, the nation-wide distribution of dengue vectors, and the impacts of climate change are not known. In this study, species distribution modeling was used to predict the baseline and future distribution of Aedine vectors in India on the basis of biologically relevant climatic indicators. Known occurrences of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database and previous literature. Bio-climatic variables were used as the potential predictors of vector distribution. After eliminating collinear and low contributing predictors, the baseline and future prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was determined, under three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Aedes aegypti was found prevalent in most parts of the southern peninsula, the eastern coastline, north eastern states and the northern plains. In contrast, Aedes albopictus has localized distribution along the eastern and western coastlines, north eastern states and in the lower Himalayas. Under future scenarios of climate change, Aedes aegypti is projected to expand into unsuitable regions of the Thar desert, whereas Aedes albopictus is projected to expand to the upper and trans Himalaya regions of the north. Overall, the results provide a reliable assessment of vectors prevalence in most parts of the country that can be used to guide surveillance efforts, despite minor disagreements with dengue incidence in Rajasthan and the north east, possibly due to behavioral practices and sampling efforts.

Temporal Correlation Between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a major mosquito-borne viral disease. Studies have reported a strong correlation between weather, the abundance of Aedes aegypti, the vector of DHF virus, and dengue incidence. However, this conclusion has been based on the general climate pattern of wide regions. In general, however, the human population, level of infrastructure, and land-use change in rural and urban areas often produce localized climate patterns that may influence the interaction between climate, vector abundance, and dengue incidence. Thoroughly understanding this correlation will allow the development of a customized and precise local early warning system. To achieve this purpose, we conducted a cohort study, during January-December 2017, in 16 districts in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. In the selected areas, local weather stations and modified light mosquito traps were set up to obtain data regarding daily weather and the abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti. A generalized linear model was applied to analyze the effect of local weather and female adult Ae. aegypti on the number of dengue cases. The result showed a significant non-linear correlation among mosquito abundance, maximum temperature, and dengue cases. Using our model, the data showed that the addition of a single adult Ae. aegypti mosquito increased the risk of dengue infection by 1.8%, while increasing the maximum temperature by one degree decreased the risk by 17%. This finding suggests specific actionable insights needed to supplement existing mosquito eradication programs.

Population Genetic Analysis of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes From Sudan Revealed Recent Independent Colonization Events by the Two Subspecies

Increases in arbovirus outbreaks in Sudan are vectored by Aedes aegypti, raising the medical importance of this mosquito. We genotyped 12 microsatellite loci in four populations of Ae. aegypti from Sudan, two from the East and two from the West, and analyzed them together with a previously published database of 31 worldwide populations to infer population structure and investigate the demographic history of this species in Sudan. Our results revealed the presence of two genetically distinct subspecies of Ae. aegypti in Sudan. These are Ae. aegypti aegypti in Eastern Sudan and Ae. aegypti formosus in Western Sudan. Clustering analysis showed that mosquitoes from East Sudan are genetically homogeneous, while we found population substructure in West Sudan. In the global context our results indicate that Eastern Sudan populations are genetically closer to Asian and American populations, while Western Sudan populations are related to East and West African populations. Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis supports a scenario in which Ae. aegypti entered Sudan in at least two independent occasions nearly 70–80 years ago. This study provides a baseline database that can be used to determine the likely origin of new introductions for this invasive species into Sudan. The presence of the two subspecies in the country should be consider when designing interventions, since they display different behaviors regarding epidemiologically relevant parameters, such as blood feeding preferences and ability to transmit disease.

Weather Factors Associated with Reduced Risk of Dengue Transmission in an Urbanized Tropical City

This study assessed the impact of weather factors, including novel predictors-pollutant standards index (PSI) and wind speed-on dengue incidence in Singapore between 2012 and 2019. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to explore the autocorrelation in time series and quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear term (DLNM) was set up to assess any non-linear association between climatic factors and dengue incidence. In DLNM, a PSI level of up to 111 was positively associated with dengue incidence; incidence reduced as PSI level increased to 160. A slight rainfall increase of up to 7 mm per week gave rise to higher dengue risk. On the contrary, heavier rainfall was protective against dengue. An increase in mean temperature under around 28.0 °C corresponded with increased dengue cases whereas the association became negative beyond 28.0 °C; the minimum temperature was significantly positively associated with dengue incidence at around 23-25 °C, and the relationship reversed when temperature exceed 27 °C. An overall positive association, albeit insignificant, was observed between maximum temperature and dengue incidence. Wind speed was associated with decreasing relative risk (RR). Beyond prevailing conclusions on temperature, this study observed that extremely poor air quality, high wind speed, minimum temperature ≥27 °C, and rainfall volume beyond 12 mm per week reduced the risk of dengue transmission in an urbanized tropical environment.

Production, Transmission, Pathogenesis, and Control of Dengue Virus: A Literature-Based Undivided Perspective

Dengue remains one of the most serious and widespread mosquito-borne viral infections in human beings, with serious health problems or even death. About 50 to 100 million people are newly infected annually, with almost 2.5 billion people living at risk and resulting in 20,000 deaths. Dengue virus infection is especially transmitted through bites of Aedes mosquitos, hugely spread in tropical and subtropical environments, mostly found in urban and semiurban areas. Unfortunately, there is no particular therapeutic approach, but prevention, adequate consciousness, detection at earlier stage of viral infection, and appropriate medical care can lower the fatality rates. This review offers a comprehensive view of production, transmission, pathogenesis, and control measures of the dengue virus and its vectors.

Detecting dengue outbreaks in Malaysia using geospatial techniques

Dengue is a complex disease with an increasing number of infections worldwide. This study aimed to analyse spatiotemporal dengue outbreaks using geospatial techniques and examine the effects of the weather on dengue outbreaks in the Klang Valley area, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Daily weather variables including rainfall, temperature (maximum and minimum) and wind speed were acquired together with the daily reported dengue cases data from 2001 to 2011 and converted into geospatial format to identify whether there was a specific pattern of the dengue outbreaks. The association between these variables and dengue outbreaks was assessed using Spearman's correlation. The result showed that dengue outbreaks consistently occurred in the study area during a 11-year study period. And that the strongest outbreaks frequently occurred in two high-rise apartment buildings located in Kuala Lumpur City centre. The results also show significant negative correlations between maximum temperature and minimum temperature on dengue outbreaks around the study area as well as in the area of the high-rise apartment buildings in Kuala Lumpur City centre.

A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil

This paper explores the main factors for mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus by focusing on environmental, anthropogenic, and social risks. A literature review was conducted bringing together related information from this genre of research from peer-reviewed publications. It was observed that environmental conditions, especially precipitation, humidity, and temperature, played a role in the transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors including sanitation, urbanization, and environmental pollution promote the transmission by affecting the mosquito density. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as poverty as well as social inequality and low-quality housing have also an impact since these are social factors that limit access to certain facilities or infrastructure which, in turn, promote transmission when absent (e.g., piped water and screened windows). Finally, the paper presents short-, mid-, and long-term preventative solutions together with future perspectives. This is the first review exploring the effects of anthropogenic aspects on Zika transmission with a special emphasis in Brazil.

Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change.

METHODS

A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes.

RESULTS

Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months.

CONCLUSION

Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.

Factors associated with the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Brazil: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To identify and describe broadly the factors related to the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Brazil.

METHODS

Systematic review of studies published in Medline, Lilacs, PubMed, Cochrane, BVS, Web of Science, Scopus, and thesis and dissertations databases using descriptors cataloged in DeCs and MeSH on dengue and factors associated with the occurrence of epidemics, published from 2008 to 2018.

RESULTS

Thirty-five studies carried out in the country were selected. The epidemics recorded in Brazil were associated and/or correlated with multiple factors such as environment, socioeconomic conditions, climate, and aspects related to the vector, among others.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue epidemics are complex and multifactorial. The continuity of the vector control actions was found to be relevant to the reduction of Aedes aegypti and for disease control. To contain the spread of the disease, effective measures are needed in all sectors, including health, education, economy, population, business, and government. Actions for the early detection of cases of the disease can prevent new outbreaks of epidemics.

A Systematic Review of the Effects of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Development and Survival: Implications for Malaria Control in a Future Warmer Climate

The rearing temperature of the immature stages can have a significant impact on the life-history traits and the ability of adult mosquitoes to transmit diseases. This review assessed published evidence of the effects of temperature on the immature stages, life-history traits, insecticide susceptibility, and expression of enzymes in the adult Anopheles mosquito. Original articles published through 31 March 2021 were systematically retrieved from Scopus, Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases. After applying eligibility criteria, 29 studies were included. The review revealed that immature stages of An. arabiensis were more tolerant (in terms of survival) to a higher temperature than An. funestus and An. quadriannulatus. Higher temperatures resulted in smaller larval sizes and decreased hatching and pupation time. The development rate and survival of An. stephensi was significantly reduced at a higher temperature than a lower temperature. Increasing temperatures decreased the longevity, body size, length of the gonotrophic cycle, and fecundity of Anopheles mosquitoes. Higher rearing temperatures increased pyrethroid resistance in adults of the An. arabiensis SENN DDT strain, and increased pyrethroid tolerance in the An. arabiensis SENN strain. Increasing temperature also significantly increased Nitric Oxide Synthase (NOS) expression and decreased insecticide toxicity. Both extreme low and high temperatures affect Anopheles mosquito development and survival. Climate change could have diverse effects on Anopheles mosquitoes. The sensitivities of Anopeheles mosquitoes to temperature differ from species to species, even among the same complex. Notwithstanding, there seem to be limited studies on the effects of temperature on adult life-history traits of Anopheles mosquitoes, and more studies are needed to clarify this relationship.

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term).

METHODS

A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.

RESULTS

Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.

The Burden of Dengue in Children by Calculating Spatial Temperature: A Methodological Approach Using Remote Sensing Techniques

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is one of the most important arboviral diseases. Surface temperature versus dengue burden in tropical environments can provide valuable information that can be adapted in future measurements to improve health policies.

METHODS

A methodological approach using Daymet-V3 provided estimates of daily weather parameters. A Python code developed by us extracted the median temperature from the urban regions of Colima State (207.3 km2) in Mexico. JointPoint regression models computed the mean temperature-adjusted average annual percentage of change (AAPC) in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (per 100,000) due to dengue in Colima State among school-aged (5-14 years old) children.

RESULTS

Primary outcomes were average temperature in urban areas and cumulative dengue burden in DALYs in the school-aged population. A model from 1990 to 2017 medium surface temperature with DALY rates was performed. The increase in DALYs rate was 64% (95% CI, 44-87%), and it seemed to depend on the 2000-2009 estimates (AAPC = 185%, 95% CI 18-588).

CONCLUSION

From our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate surface temperature and to model it through an extensive period with health economics calculations in a specific subset of the Latin-American endemic population for dengue epidemics.

Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus

Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various parameters on likelihood of new serotype emergence. In order to determine the time scales of such an event, we used a Timed Markov Transmission Model to explore the influences of sylvatic versus peri-urban transmission, viral mutation rate, and vertical transmission on the probabilities of novel serotype emergence. We found that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of extant dengue serotypes. Furthermore, we show that likelihood of establishing chains of mosquito-human-mosquito infection, known as consolidation, is the primary factor which constrains novel serotype emergence. Our work illustrates the restrictions on and provides a mechanistic explanation for the low probability of novel dengue virus serotype emergence and the low number of observed DENV serotypes.

New traps for the capture of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) eggs and adults

The control of arboviruses carried by Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) can be performed with tools that monitor and reduce the circulation of these vectors. Therefore, the efficiency of four types of traps in capturing A. aegypti and A. albopictus eggs and adults, with the biological product Vectobac WG, was evaluated in the field. For this, 20 traps were installed in two locations, which were in the South (Londrina, Paraná) and North (Manaus, Amazonas) Regions of Brazil, from March to April 2017 and January to February 2018, respectively. The UELtrap-E (standard trap) and UELtrap-EA traps captured A. aegypti and A. albopictus eggs: 1703/1866 eggs in Londrina, and 10268/2149 eggs in Manaus, respectively, and presented high ovitraps positivity index (OPI) values (averages: 100%/100% in Londrina, and 100%/96% in Manaus, respectively); and high egg density index (EDI) values (averages: 68/75 in Londrina, and 411/89 in Manaus, respectively), so they had statistically superior efficiency to that of the CRtrap-E and CRtrap-EA traps in both regions, that captured less eggs and adults: 96/69 eggs in Londrina, and 1091/510 eggs in Manaus, respectively. Also presented lower OPI values (averages: 28%/4% in Londrina, and 88%/60% in Manaus, respectively); and lower EDI values (averages: 10.5/9 in Londrina, and 47/30 in Manaus, respectively). The capture ratios of Aedes adults in the UELtrap-EA and CRtrap-EA traps in Londrina and Manaus were 53.3%/29.5% and 0%/9.8%, respectively. UELtrap-EA can be adopted as efficient tool for Aedes monitoring due to their high sensitivity, low cost and ease of use.

Understanding the role of temporal variation of environmental variables in predicting Aedes aegypti oviposition activity in a temperate region of Argentina

Environmental variables related to vegetation and weather are some of the most influential factors that impacting Aedes (Stegomya) aegypti, a mosquito vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses. In this paper, we aim to develop temporal predictive models for Ae. aegypti oviposition activity utilizing vegetation and meteorological variables as predictors in Córdoba city (Argentina). Eggs were collected using ovitraps placed throughout the city from 2009 to 2012 that were replaced weekly. Temporal generalized linear mixed models were developed with negative binomial distributions of errors that model average number of eggs collected weekly as a function of vegetation and meteorological variables with time lags. The best model included a vegetation index, vapor pressure of water, precipitation and photoperiod. With each unit of increment in vegetation index per week the average number of eggs increased by 1.71 in the third week. Furthermore, each millimeter increase of accumulated rain during 4 weeks was associated with a decrease of 0.668 in the average number of eggs found in the following week. This negative effect of precipitation could occur during abundant rainfalls that fill containers completely, thereby depriving females of oviposition sites and leading them to search for other suitable breeding sites. Furthermore, the average number of eggs increased with the photoperiod at low values of mean vapor pressure; however the average number of eggs decreased at high values of mean vapor pressure, and the positive relationship between the response variable and mean vapor pressure was stronger at low values of photoperiod. Additionally, minimum temperature was associated positively with oviposition activity and that low minimum temperatures could be a limiting factor in Ae. aegypti oviposition activity. Our results emphasize the important role that climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure play in Ae. aegypti oviposition activity and how these variables along with vegetation indices can be used to inform predictive temporal models of Ae. aegypti population dynamics that can be used for informing mosquito population control and arbovirus mitigation strategies.

Dispersal patterns and population genetic structure of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in three different climatic regions of China

Background

Aedes albopictus is an indigenous primary vector for dengue and Zika viruses in China. Compared with its insecticide resistance, biology and vector competence, little is known about its genetic variation, which corresponds to environmental variations. Thus, the present study examines how Ae. albopictus varies among different climatic regions in China and deciphers its potential dispersal patterns.

Methods

The genetic variation and population structure of 17 Ae. albopictus populations collected from three climatic regions of China were investigated with 11 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial coxI gene.

Results

Of 44 isolated microsatellite markers, 11 pairs were chosen for genotyping analysis and had an average PIC value of 0.713, representing high polymorphism. The number of alleles was high in each population, with the n_e value increasing from the temperate region (3.876) to the tropical region (4.144). Twenty-five coxI haplotypes were detected, and the highest diversity was observed in the tropical region. The mean Ho value (ca. 0.557) of all the regions was significantly lower than the mean He value (ca. 0.684), with nearly all populations significantly departing from HWE and displaying significant population expansion (p value < 0.05). Two genetically isolated groups and three haplotype clades were evaluated via STRUCTURE and haplotype phylogenetic analyses, and the tropical populations were significantly isolated from those in the other regions. Most genetic variation in Ae. albopictus was detected within populations and individuals at 31.40 and 63.04%, respectively, via the AMOVA test, and a relatively significant positive correlation was observed among only the temperate populations via IBD analysis (R² = 0.6614, p = 0.048). Recent dispersions were observed among different Ae. albopictus populations, and four major migration trends with high gene flow (Nm > 0.4) were reconstructed between the tropical region and the other two regions. Environmental factors, especially temperature and rainfall, may be the leading causes of genetic diversity in different climatic regions.

Conclusions

Continuous dispersion contributes to the genetic communication of Ae. albopictus populations across different climatic regions, and environmental factors, especially temperature and rainfall, may be the leading causes of genetic variation.

Graphical abstract

Supraspecific units in correlative niche modeling improves the prediction of geographic potential of biological invasions

BACKGROUND

Biological invasions rank among the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. Correlative ecological niche modeling is among the most frequently used tools with which to estimate potential distributions of invasive species. However, when areas accessible to the species across its native distribution do not represent the full spectrum of environmental conditions that the species can tolerate, correlative studies often underestimate fundamental niches.

METHODS

Here, we explore the utility of supraspecific modeling units to improve the predictive ability of models focused on biological invasions. Taking into account phylogenetic relationships in correlative ecological niche models, we studied the invasion patterns of three species (Aedes aegypti, Pterois volitans and Oreochromis mossambicus).

RESULTS

Use of supraspecific modeling units improved the predictive ability of correlative niche models in anticipating potential distributions of three invasive species. We demonstrated that integrating data on closely related species allowed a more complete characterization of fundamental niches. This approach could be used to model species with invasive potential but that have not yet invaded new regions.

Multigenerational experimental simulation of climate change on an economically important insect pest

Long-term multigenerational experimental simulations of climate change on insect pests of economically and socially important crops are crucial to anticipate challenges for feeding humanity in the not-so-far future. Mexican bean weevil Zabrotes subfasciatus, is a worldwide pest that attacks the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris seeds, in crops and storage. We designed a long term (i.e., over 10 generations), experimental simulation of climate change by increasing temperature and CO2 air concentration in controlled conditions according to model predictions for 2100. Higher temperature and CO2 concentrations favored pest's egg-to-adult development survival, even at high female fecundity. It also induced a reduction of fat storage and increase of protein content but did not alter body size. After 10 generations of simulation, genetic adaptation was detected for total lipid content only, however, other traits showed signs of such process. Future experimental designs and methods similar to ours, are key for studying long-term effects of climate change through multigenerational experimental designs.

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

Background

Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas.

Methods

The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces.

Results

The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time.

Conclusions

The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.

Incidence and spatial distribution of cases of dengue, from 2010 to 2019: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an arbovirus that has caused serious problem in Brazil, putting the public health system under severe stress. Understanding its incidence and spatial distribution is essential for disease control and prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To perform an analysis on dengue incidence and spatial distribution in a medium-sized, cool-climate and high-altitude city.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Ecological study carried out in a public institution in the city of Garanhuns, Pernambuco, Brazil.

METHODS

Secondary data provided by specific agencies in each area were used for spatial analysis and elaboration of kernel maps, incidence calculations, correlations and percentages of dengue occurrence. The Geocentric Reference System for the Americas (Sistema de Referência Geocêntrico para as Américas, SIRGAS), 2000, was the software of choice.

RESULTS

The incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. Between 2010 and 2019, there were 6,504 cases and the incidence was 474.92. From 2010 to 2014, the incidence was 161.46 for a total of 1,069 cases. The highest incidence occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019: out of a total of 5,435 cases, the incidence was 748.65, representing an increase of 485.97%. Population density and the interaction between two climatic factors, i.e. atypical temperature above 31 °C and relative humidity above 31.4%, contributed to the peak incidence of dengue, although these variables were not statistically significant (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The dengue incidence levels and spatial distribution reflected virus and vector adjustment to the local climate. However, there was no correlation between climatic factors and occurrences of dengue in this city.

Cattle-induced eutrophication favours disease-vector mosquitoes

Free-range cattle rearing in arid landscapes contributes profoundly to ecosystem degradation. Cattle dung nutrification in aquatic habitats potentially shapes species diversity and abundance due to resource availability. These nutrient-enriched environments may increase oviposition by mosquitoes and influence proliferation of disease vectors. Here, we examined mosquito larval abundance of Culex pipiens pipiens (culicine) and an unidentified Anopheles (anopheline) species across different concentration treatments of nutrient (cattle dung) loadings (T1-T4; 1 g L^-1, 2 g L^-1, 4 g L^-1 and 8 g L^-1, respectively) in a randomised outdoor mesocosm experiment. The experiment was run for two weeks post-dung inoculation (Day 7 to 21), with mosquito larvae collected (Day 14 and 21), identified and quantified. Higher dung nutrient concentrations significantly increased mosquito larval abundance relative to dung-free controls. Culicine larvae were 26-times more abundant than anopheline on average. Higher dung concentrations also tended to promote more rapid development in larval mosquitoes. With no colonisation by mosquito larvae in the control treatments, we conclude that the input of dung in aquatic ecosystems promotes vector development and abundance with the potential to increase risk of mosquito-borne infections. We therefore recommend sustainable management policies that tackle likely ecological disservices attributable to free-ranging livestock communities.

Spatial modelling of the infestation indices of Aedes aegypti: an innovative strategy for vector control actions in developing countries

BACKGROUND

Larval indices such as the house index (HI), Breteau index (BI) and container index (CI) are widely used to interpret arbovirus vector density in surveillance programmes. However, the use of such data as an alarm signal is rarely considered consciously when planning programmes. The present study aims to investigate the spatial distribution pattern of the infestation of Aedes aegypti, considering the data available in the Ae. aegypti Infestation Index Rapid Survey (LIRAa) for the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State in Brazil.

METHODS

The global and local Moran's indices were used in spatial analysis to measure the effects of spatial dependencies between neighbourhoods, using secondary data related to HI and BI gathered from surveillance service.

RESULTS

Our analysis shows that there is a predominance of high rates of mosquito infestation, placing Campina Grande at a near-constant risk of arbovirus outbreaks and epidemics. A highly significant Moran's index value (P < 0.001) was observed, indicating a positive spatial dependency between the neighbourhoods in Campina Grande. Using the Moran mapping and LISA mapping, the autocorrelation patterns of Ae. aegypti infestation rates among neighbourhoods have revealed hotpots that should be considered a priority to preventive actions of the entomological surveillance services. Predominance of high infestation rates and clearer relationships of these between neighbourhoods were observed between the months of May and July, the period with the highest rainfall in the city.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis is an innovative strategy capable of providing detailed information on infestation locations to the relevant public health authorities, which will enable a more efficient allocation of resources, particularly for arbovirus prevention.

Gene Flow Patterns Among Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, dengue is the most serious arboviral disease. Recent increases in dengue cases suggest a higher infection rate and spread of the disease to new areas. The present study explores gene flow patterns of Ae. aegypti, the main vector of dengue disease, among 10 collection sites including major ports and inland cities using variations at 11 microsatellite loci. Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and k-means clustering estimated eight genetic clusters. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) estimated equal variances among cities and among collections in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Significant evidence, although weak, was detected for isolation by distance. Analysis of gene flow rates and directions using MIGRATE-n indicated that populations throughout the island served as a source of immigrants for Colombo with abundant gene flow among major commercial cities in Sri Lanka, which appear to receive migrant mosquitoes from throughout Sri Lanka. The observed patterns probably arise through human movement of Ae. aegypti during commerce from throughout Sri Lanka into Colombo increasing the risk of spread. The patterns uncovered in this study are significant for global health as Sri Lanka is situated along a key international shipping route.

Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change

Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.

Climatic Conditions: Conventional and Nanotechnology-Based Methods for the Control of Mosquito Vectors Causing Human Health Issues

Climate variability is highly impacting on mosquito-borne diseases causing malaria and dengue fever across the globe. Seasonal variability change in temperature and rainfall patterns are impacting on human health. Mosquitoes cause diseases like dengue fever, yellow fever, malaria, Chikungunya, West Nile and Japanese encephalitis. According to estimations by health organizations, annually one million human deaths are caused by vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever has increased about 30-fold over the past 50 years. Similarly, over 200 million cases of malaria are being reported annually. Mosquito-borne diseases are sensitive to temperature, humidity and seasonal variability. Both conventional (environmental, chemical, mechanical, biological etc.) and nanotechnology-based (Liposomes, nano-suspensions and polymer-based nanoparticles) approaches are used for the eradication of Malaria and dengue fever. Now green approaches are used to eradicate mosquitoes to save human health without harming the environment. In this review, the impact of climatic conditions on mosquito-borne diseases along with conventional and nanotechnology-based approaches used for controlling malaria and dengue fever have been discussed. Important recommendations have been made for people to stay healthy.

Satellite Imaging and Long-Term Mosquito Surveillance Implicate the Influence of Rapid Urbanization on Culex Vector Populations

The ecology and environmental conditions of a habitat have profound influences on mosquito population abundance. As a result, mosquito species vary in their associations with particular habitat types, yet long-term studies showing how mosquito populations shift in a changing ecological landscape are lacking. To better understand how land use changes influence mosquito populations, we examined mosquito surveillance data over a thirty-four-year period for two contrasting sites in central Iowa. One site displayed increasing levels of urbanization over time and a dramatic decline in Culex pipiens group (an informal grouping of Culex restuans, Culex pipiens, and Culex salinarius, referred to as CPG), the primary vectors of West Nile virus in central Iowa. Similar effects were also shown for other mosquito vector populations, yet the abundance of Aedes vexans remained constant during the study period. This is in contrast to a second site, which reflected an established urban landscape. At this location, there were no significant changes in land use and CPG populations remained constant. Climate data (temperature, total precipitation) were compiled for each location to see if these changes could account for altered population dynamics, but neither significantly influence CPG abundance at the respective site locations. Taken together, our data suggest that increased landscape development can have negative impacts on Culex vector populations, and we argue that long-term surveillance paired with satellite imagery analysis are useful methods for measuring the impacts of rapid human development on mosquito vector communities. As a result, we believe that land use changes can have important implications for mosquito management practices, population modeling, and disease transmission dynamics.

Do we know how mosquito disease vectors will respond to climate change?

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes’ ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.

Surveillance of Aedes aegypti indoors and outdoors using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in South Texas during local transmission of Zika virus, 2016 to 2018

The yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, has facilitated the re-emergence of dengue virus (DENV) and emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and the Caribbean. The recent transmission of these arboviruses in the continental United States has been limited, to date, to South Florida and South Texas despite Ae. aegypti occurring over a much larger geographical region within the country. The main goal of our study was to provide the first long term longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti and enhance the knowledge about the indoor and outdoor relative abundance of Ae. aegypti as a proxy for mosquito-human contact in South Texas, a region of the United States that is at high risk for mosquito-borne virus transmission. Here, the relative abundance of indoors and outdoors mosquitoes of households in eight different communities was described. Surveillance was done weekly from September 2016 to April 2018 using the CDC Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in low- and middle-income communities. A total of 69 houses were included in this survey among which 36 were in the low-income communities (n = 11 for Donna, n = 15 for Progresso, n = 5 for Mesquite, n = 5 for Chapa) and 33 in middle-income communities (n = 9 for La Feria, n = 8 for Weslaco, n = 11 for McAllen, and n = 5 for Rio Rico). Overall, Ae. aegypti was the dominant species (59.2% of collections, n = 7255) followed by Culex spp. mosquitoes (27.3% of collections, n = 3350). Furthermore, we demonstrated for Ae. aegypti that 1) outdoor relative abundance was higher compared to indoor relative abundance, 2) low-income communities were associated with an increase in mosquito relative abundance indoors when compared to middle-income communities, 3) no difference was observed in the number of mosquitoes collected outdoors between low-income and middle-income communities, and 4) warmer months were positively correlated with outdoor relative abundance whereas no seasonality was observed in the relative abundance of mosquitoes indoors. Additionally, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes collected in South Texas were tested using a specific ZIKV/CHIKV multiplex real-time PCR assay, however, none of the mosquitoes tested positive. Our data highlights the occurrence of mosquitoes indoors in the continental United States and that adults are collected nearly every week of the calendar year. These mosquito data, obtained concurrently with local ZIKV transmission of 10 locally acquired cases in nearby communities, represent a baseline for future studies in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) including vector control interventions relying on the oviposition behavior to reduce mosquito populations and pathogen transmission.

Breastfeeding in the time of Zika: a systematic literature review

Background

The disease Zika is considered as emergent. The infection can be acquired through different routes: a bite from the Aedes mosquito, sexual contact, from mother to child during pregnancy and by blood transfusion. The possibility of Zika transmission through human lactation has been considered. Zika is a disease of great concern for public health because it has been associated with neonatal and postnatal microcephaly, among other birth defects.

Objectives

To review published evidence of the probable transmission of Zika through human lactation.

Data sources

Electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EBSCO, Gale, Science Direct, Scopus, US National Library of Medicine (PubMed) and Web of Science. World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention web pages.

Study eligibility criteria

To be eligible, studies of any design had to provide primary data of human breast milk as a potential fluid for the transmission of Zika, or primary or secondary follow-up data of infants with at least one previous published study that complied with the first criterion of eligibility.

Participants

Studies about women with suspected, probable or confirmed Zika during pregnancy, or the postnatal period and beyond. Studies about infants who breastfeed directly from the breast or where fed with the expressed breast milk of the suspected, probable or confirmed women with Zika.

Results

This study only chose data from research papers; no patients were taken directly by the authors. A total of 1,146 were screened and nine studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, from which a total of 10 cases were identified, with documented follow-up in three of these cases. Through the timing of maternal Zika infection, five cases were classified as prenatal (time before delivery), one as immediate postnatal (period from 0 to 4 days after birth); no cases were classified as medium postnatal (period from 5 days to 8 weeks after birth); two were classified as long postnatal (period from 8 weeks to 6 months after birth) and two as beyond six months after birth.

Conclusion

Human milk may be considered as a potentially infectious fluid, but we found no currently documented studies of the long-term complications in infants up to 32 months of age, with suspected, probable or confirmed Zika through human lactation, or evidence with respect to the human pathophysiology of the infection acquired through human lactation. In the light of the studies reviewed here, the World Health Organization recommendation of June 29th 2016, remains valid: “the benefits of breastfeeding for the infant and mother outweigh any potential risk of Zika virus transmission through breast milk.”