Treatment failure may lead to accelerated fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Interferon-λ rs12979860 genotype association with liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients in the Pakistani population

Risk and progression of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients is significantly influenced by host genetic factors in a polygenic manner. The rs12979860 genetic polymorphism in the interferon-λ3-interferon-λ4 (IFNL3-IFNL4) region has been found to be a major determinant of hepatic inflammatory and fibrotic progression in CHC patients of mainly Caucasian origin; however, it is not known if this association applies to other ethnicities, including Pakistani CHC patients. Here, we genotyped IFNL3-IFNL4 rs12979860 genetic variants in a sample set of 502 Pakistani patients with CHC and used logistic regression analysis to determine its association with the risk and progression of HCV-related fibrosis and cirrhosis. We demonstrate that the rs12979860 major (CC) genotype, despite not determining the risk of stage-specific hepatic fibrosis independently, is associated with a marginally significant risk of liver cirrhosis (OR: 1.64, p = 0.049) after an adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, HCV viral load, and liver enzymes. In a subgroup of CHC patients with sustained ALT levels of <60 IU/L, a more pronounced impact of the IFNL3-IFNL4 rs12979860 major (CC) genotype on advanced liver fibrosis (OR: 4.99, p = 0.017) and cirrhosis (OR: 3.34, p = 0.005) was seen. The present study suggests that IFNL3-IFNL4 rs12979860 polymorphism may also be a significant predictor of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in Pakistani CHC patients, especially in those with normal or near-normal liver enzyme levels.

Risk factors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C without sustained response to combination therapy

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Although antiviral therapy reduces development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), HCC often develops in patients with non-sustained virologic response (non-SVR). We aimed to evaluate risk factors for HCC in HCV patients with non-SVR.

METHODS

From March 2002 to December 2013, 800 patients with CHC who had received combined pegylated interferon (peg-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) therapy without achieving SVR were enrolled. Main outcome measure was HCC development. Variables were cirrhosis, platelet count, α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), and IL28B polymorphism (CT + TT).

RESULTS

One-hundred of 800 non-SVR patients developed HCC within a median 53.5-months follow-up. Cumulative incidence of HCC for all patients was 1.4%, 5.6% and 12.3%, respectively, at 1st, 3rd and 5th years of follow-up. In univariate analysis, patients who developed HCC tended to have LC (p< 0.001), lower platelet counts (<150 × 109/l, p < 0.001), higher AFP levels (≥20 ng/ml, p < 0.001), higher Fib-4 levels (p < 0.001), higher APRI levels (p < 0.001), IL 28B polymorphism (CT + TT) (p < 0.001) and higher incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) (p = 0.019). Multivariate analysis in overall patients revealed that cirrhosis (HR: 2.94, 95% CI: 1.81-4.77, p < 0.001), IL28B rs12979860 (CT + TT) polymorphisms (HR: 3.22, 95% CI: 2.17-4.78, p < 0.001), and high APRI levels (≥2.57) (HR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.47-3.67, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for HCC.

CONCLUSION

Liver cirrhosis, high APRI levels, and IL28B rs12979860 at baseline are independent risk factors for HCC development in patients without SVR after peg-IFN combination therapy.

Uptake of and Factors Associated With Direct-acting Antiviral Therapy Among Patients in the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study, 2014 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Limited information is available describing the uptake of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among patients in general US health care settings. We determined the proportion of HCV-infected patients in the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study prescribed DAAs in 2014, who initiated treatment and identified characteristics associated with treatment initiation.

METHODS

Uptake was defined as the proportion of HCV-infected patients with at least 1 clinical encounter in 2013 who were prescribed a DAA regimen during 2014 and initiated the regimen by August 2015. Using multivariable analysis, we examined demographic and clinical characteristics associated with receipt of DAAs.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 9508 patients; 544 (5.7%) started a DAA regimen. Higher annual income [adjusted odds ratios (aOR) 2.3 for income>$50K vs. <$30K], higher Fibrosis-4 score (aORs, 2.1, 2.0, and 1.4 for Fibrosis-4, >5.88, 3.25 to 5.88, 2.0 to 3.25, respectively, vs. <2.0), genotype 2 infection (aOR 2.2 vs. genotype 1), pre-2014 treatment failure (aOR 2.0 vs. treatment-naive), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection (aOR 1.8 vs. HCV monoinfection) were associated with DAA initiation. Black race/ethnicity (aOR 0.7 vs. whites) and Medicaid coverage (aOR 0.5 vs. private insurance) were associated with noninitiation. Sex, age, comorbidity, previous liver transplant, and duration of follow-up were not associated with receipt of DAAs.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients in these general US health care settings, uptake of DAA therapy was low in 2014, and especially so among minority and Medicaid patients. Systemic efforts to improve access to DAAs for all patients are essential to reduce morbidity and mortality from HCV infection.

Uptake of hepatitis B-HIV co-infection screening and management in a resource limited setting

Background

WHO hepatitis B guidelines recommend testing all new HIV patients, treating them accordingly or providing immunization. At the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) following an audit done in 2012, only 46% patients had been screened for hepatitis B with variable management plans therefore new internal guidelines were implemented. This study describes the uptake of hepatitis B screening and management of patients with hepatitis B and HIV con-infection after the implementation.

Methods

Data included for all HIV positive patients in care at IDI by October 2015. Data are expressed as median with interquartile range (IQR) and percentages were compared using the chi square test. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA version 13. The IDI laboratory upper limit of normal for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (ASTs) was 40 IU/ml.

Results

Number of hepatitis B screening tests increased from 800 by 2012 to 1400 in 2015. By 2015 8042/8604(93.5%) patients had been screened for hepatitis B. Overall hepatitis B positive were 359 (4.6%). 166 (81.4%) hepatitis B positives were switched to a tenofovir (TDF) containing regimen.

Conclusion

Our study confirms the importance of screening for hepatitis B and of using ART regimens containing tenofovir in hepatitis B co-infected patients. Whilst our program has made improvements in care still 18.6% of patients with hepatitis B were not on tenofovir regimens, 98.1% had no hepatitis B viral loads done. Clinicians should recognize the potential for hepatitis B in HIV positive patients and the importance of early diagnosis and treatment to ensure optimal management of cases and follow up.

A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting.

AIM

Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk.

RESULTS

Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87).

CONCLUSION

This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

Hepatitis C treatment failure is associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

Sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy for hepatitis C (HCV) reduces risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but there is little information regarding how treatment failure (TF) compares to lack of treatment. We evaluated the impact of treatment status on risk of HCC using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS-an observational study based in four large US health systems, with up to 7 years of follow-up on patients). Multivariable analyses were used to adjust for bias in treatment selection, as well as other covariates, followed by sensitivity analyses. Among 10 091 HCV patients, 3681 (36%) received treatment, 2099 (57%) experienced treatment failure (TF), and 1582 (43%) of these achieved sustained virological response (SVR). TF patients demonstrated almost twice the risk of HCC than untreated patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-2.53]; this risk persisted across all stages of fibrosis. Several sensitivity analyses validated these results. Although African Americans were at increased risk of treatment failure, they were at lower risk for HCC and all-cause mortality compared to White patients. SVR patients had lower risk of HCC than TF patients (aHR = 0.48, CI 0.31-0.73), whereas treatment - regardless of outcome - reduced all-cause mortality (aHR = 0.45, CI 0.34-0.60 for SVR patients; aHR = 0.78, CI 0.65-0.93 for TF patients).

Overestimate of Fibrosis by FIBROSpect® II in African Americans Complicates the Management of their Chronic Hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of advanced fibrosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is used to facilitate decisions on treatment strategy and to initiate additional screening measures. Unfortunately, most studies have predominately Caucasian (Cau) patients and may not be as relevant for African Americans (AA).

AIMS

This study specifically addresses the issue of defining minimal vs. significant fibrosis in African Americans (AA) with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) using noninvasive assays.

METHODS

All patients (n = 319) seen between 1 January 2008 and 30 June 2013 for whom a FibroSpect II® (FSII) assay was performed and had data for calculation of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were identified using the medical records.

RESULTS

When liver biopsy score and FSII assay results for the AA patients with CHC were compared, 31% of AA had advanced FSII fibrosis scores (F2-F4) despite a biopsy score of F0-F1. In contrast, 10% of Cau over-scored. The AA false positive rate was 14% for APRI and 34% for FIB-4. Combining FSII with either APRI (7% false positive) or FIB-4 (10% false positive) improved the false positive rate in AA to 7% (FSII + APRI) and 10% (FSII + FIB-4) but reduced the sensitivity for significant fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The FSII assay overestimates fibrosis in AA and should be used with caution since these patients may not have significant fibrosis. If the APRI or FIB-4 assay is combined with the FSII assay, minimal fibrosis in AA can be defined without subjecting the patients to a subsequent biopsy.

Effect of Treatment for CHC on Liver Disease Progression and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in African Americans

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

African Americans (AA) historically have a low response rate to hepatitis C therapies, and there is limited information available for this patient population regarding the development and treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The aim of this study was to evaluate liver disease progression and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in AA with CHC.

METHODS

Between 1995 and 2008, 246 AA patients with CHC were identified from a database of patients and followed until 2012-2013 (average 8 years) or the development of HCC after 2008.

RESULTS

Viral clearance (intent to treat; sustained virus response (SVR)) was achieved in 15% of patients with interferon based therapies with or without ribavirin. AA patients who achieved an SVR (n=22) did not develop HCC or new onset cirrhosis, whereas the HCC incidence in untreated AA patients was 23% (51/203). Patients who achieved an SVR also had improved fibrosis, as defined by the AST Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, relative to nonresponders and untreated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of liver disease at the first visit (except for cirrhosis) correlated with the development of HCC, but because of the overlap in values between patients, these measurements were not useful for predicting individual risk. Since cirrhosis at the first visit was not a predictive factor, treatment with newer antiviral therapies is the best option for reducing the incidence of advanced liver disease and its harmful outcomes in the AA population.

Improvement of predictive models of risk of disease progression in chronic hepatitis C by incorporating longitudinal data

Existing predictive models of risk of disease progression in chronic hepatitis C have limited accuracy. The aim of this study was to improve upon existing models by applying novel statistical methods that incorporate longitudinal data. Patients in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment Against Cirrhosis trial were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were (1) fibrosis progression (increase of two or more Ishak stages) and (2) liver-related clinical outcomes (liver-related death, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant, or increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥7). Predictors included longitudinal clinical, laboratory, and histologic data. Models were constructed using logistic regression and two machine learning methods (random forest and boosting) to predict an outcome in the next 12 months. The control arm was used as the training data set (n = 349 clinical, n = 184 fibrosis) and the interferon arm, for internal validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for longitudinal models of fibrosis progression was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.83) using logistic regression, 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) using random forest, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.82) using boosting. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for longitudinal models of clinical progression was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.82) using logistic regression, 0.86 (95% CI 0.85-0.87) using random forest, and 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.86) using boosting. Longitudinal models outperformed baseline models for both outcomes (P < 0.0001). Longitudinal machine learning models had negative predictive values of 94% for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models that incorporate longitudinal data can capture nonlinear disease progression in chronic hepatitis C and thus outperform baseline models. Machine learning methods can capture complex relationships between predictors and outcomes, yielding more accurate predictions; our models can help target costly therapies to patients with the most urgent need, guide the intensity of clinical monitoring required, and provide prognostic information to patients.

Interferon-λ rs12979860 genotype and liver fibrosis in viral and non-viral chronic liver disease

Tissue fibrosis is a core pathologic process that contributes to mortality in ~45% of the population and is likely to be influenced by the host genetic architecture. Here we demonstrate, using liver disease as a model, that a single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs12979860) in the intronic region of interferon-λ4 (IFNL4) is a strong predictor of fibrosis in an aetiology-independent manner. In a cohort of 4,172 patients, including 3,129 with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), 555 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 488 with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), those with rs12979860CC have greater hepatic inflammation and fibrosis. In CHC, those with rs12979860CC also have greater stage-constant and stage-specific fibrosis progression rates (P<0.0001 for all). The impact of rs12979860 genotypes on fibrosis is maximal in young females, especially those with HCV genotype 3. These findings establish rs12979860 genotype as a strong aetiology-independent predictor of tissue inflammation and fibrosis.

Tissue fibrosis is a major contributor to mortality in the developed world. Here, the authors identify a genetic variant in the intronic region of interferon-λ4 that is a strong predictor of hepatic inflammation and fibrosis, independent of liver disease aetiology

Cure of HCV related liver disease

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic liver injury and can lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCV can also interact with the immune system to cause several HCV related disorders including essential mixed cryoglobulinemia, vasculitis, dermatitis, glomerulonephritis and lymphoma. A strong association between HCV and diabetes mellitus also exists. These extrahepatic features may lead to increased fatigue and a reduced quality of life. It is now possible to cure most patients with chronic HCV using oral antiviral therapy. Many of these HCV-related disorders and symptoms can be cured when HCV is eradicated. However, some patients may have irreversible injury to extrahepatic sites, cirrhosis that cannot resolve, an increased risk for HCC, persistent fatigue and a reduced quality of life, despite achieving sustained virological response.

Systematic review: identifying patients with chronic hepatitis C in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring--predictors and predictive models of disease progression

BACKGROUND

Advances in hepatitis C therapies have led to increasing numbers of patients seeking treatment. As a result, logistical and financial concerns regarding how treatment can be provided to all patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have emerged.

AIM

To evaluate predictors and predictive models of histological progression and clinical outcomes for patients with CHC.

METHODS

MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for studies published between January 2003 and June 2014. Two authors independently reviewed articles to select eligible studies and performed data abstraction.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies representing 5817 patients from 20 unique cohorts were included. The outcome incidence rates were widely variable: 16-61% during median follow-up of 2.5-10 years for fibrosis progression; 13-40% over 2.3-14.4 years for hepatic decompensation and 8-47% over 3.9-14.4 years for overall mortality. Multivariate analyses showed that baseline steatosis and baseline fibrosis score were the most consistent predictors of fibrosis progression (significant in 6/21 and 5/21, studies, respectively) while baseline platelet count (significant in 6/13 studies), aspartate and alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, albumin, bilirubin and age (each significant in 4/13 studies) were the most consistent predictors of clinical outcomes. Five studies developed predictive models but none were externally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review identified the variables that most consistently predict outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis C allowing the application of risk based approaches to identify patients in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring. This approach maximises effective use of resources and costly new direct-acting anti-viral agents.