1
|
Gary PJ, Lal A, Simonetto DA, Gajic O, Gallo de Moraes A. Acute on chronic liver failure: prognostic models and artificial intelligence applications. Hepatol Commun 2023; 7:02009842-202304010-00015. [PMID: 36972378 PMCID: PMC10043584 DOI: 10.1097/hc9.0000000000000095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Critically ill patients presenting with acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) represent a particularly vulnerable population due to various considerations surrounding the syndrome definition, lack of robust prospective evaluation of outcomes, and allocation of resources such as organs for transplantation. Ninety-day mortality related to ACLF is high and patients who do leave the hospital are frequently readmitted. Artificial intelligence (AI), which encompasses various classical and modern machine learning techniques, natural language processing, and other methods of predictive, prognostic, probabilistic, and simulation modeling, has emerged as an effective tool in various areas of healthcare. These methods are now being leveraged to potentially minimize physician and provider cognitive load and impact both short-term and long-term patient outcomes. However, the enthusiasm is tempered by ethical considerations and a current lack of proven benefits. In addition to prognostic applications, AI models can likely help improve the understanding of various mechanisms of morbidity and mortality in ACLF. Their overall impact on patient-centered outcomes and countless other aspects of patient care remains unclear. In this review, we discuss various AI approaches being utilized in healthcare and discuss the recent and expected future impact of AI on patients with ACLF through prognostic modeling and AI-based approaches.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Phillip J Gary
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Multidisciplinary Epidemiology and Translational Research in Intensive Care Group, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Amos Lal
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Multidisciplinary Epidemiology and Translational Research in Intensive Care Group, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Douglas A Simonetto
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Ognjen Gajic
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Multidisciplinary Epidemiology and Translational Research in Intensive Care Group, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Alice Gallo de Moraes
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Multidisciplinary Epidemiology and Translational Research in Intensive Care Group, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Tsai YJ, Lin CH, Yen YH, Wu CC, Carvajal C, Molte NF, Lin PY, Hsieh CH. Risk factors for pressure ulcer recurrence following surgical reconstruction: A cross-sectional retrospective analysis. Front Surg 2023; 10:970681. [PMID: 36936658 PMCID: PMC10020371 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2023.970681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Many studies on the recurrence of pressure ulcers after surgical reconstruction have focused on surgical techniques and socioeconomic factors. Herein, we aimed to identify the risk factors of the associated comorbidities for pressure ulcer recurrence. We enrolled 147 patients who underwent pressure ulcer reconstruction and were followed up for more than three years. The recurrence of pressure ulcers was defined as recurrent pressure ulcers with stage 3/4 pressure ulcers. We reviewed and analyzed systematic records of medical histories, including sex, age, associated comorbidities such as spinal cord injury (SCI), diabetes mellitus (DM), coronary artery disease, cerebral vascular accident, end-stage renal disease, scoliosis, dementia, Parkinson's disease, psychosis, autoimmune diseases, hip surgery, and locations of the primary pressure ulcer. Patients with recurrent pressure ulcers were younger than those without. Patients with SCI and scoliosis had higher odds, while those with Parkinson's disease had lower odds of recurrence of pressure ulcers than those without these comorbidities. Moreover, the decision tree algorithm identified that SCI, DM, and age < 34 years could be risk factor classifiers for predicting recurrent pressure ulcers. This study demonstrated that age and SCI are the two most important risk factors associated with recurrent pressure ulcers following surgical reconstruction.
Collapse
|
3
|
Construction of a Compact and High-Precision Classifier in the Inductive Learning Method for Prediction and Diagnostic Problems. INFORMATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/info13120589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The study is dictated by the need to make reasonable decisions in the classification of observations, for example, in the problems of medical prediction and diagnostics. Today, as part of the digitalization in healthcare, decision-making by a doctor is carried out using intelligent information systems. The introduction of such systems contributes to the implementation of policies aimed at ensuring sustainable development in the health sector. The paper discusses the method of inductive learning, which can be the algorithmic basis of such systems. In order to build a compact and high-precision classifier for the studied method, it is necessary to obtain a set of informative patterns and to create a method for building a classifier with high generalizing ability from this set of patterns. Three optimization models for the building of informative patterns have been developed, which are based on different concepts. Additionally, two algorithmic procedures have been developed that are used to obtain a compact and high-precision classifier. Experimental studies were carried out on the problems of medical prediction and diagnostics, aimed at finding the best optimization model for the building of informative pattern and at proving the effectiveness of the developed algorithmic procedures.
Collapse
|
4
|
Sun XS, Zhu MY, Wen DX, Luo DH, Sun R, Chen QY, Mai HQ. Establishment and validation of a recursive partitioning analysis based prognostic model for guiding re-radiotherapy in local recurrence nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. Radiother Oncol 2022; 168:61-68. [DOI: 10.1016/j.radonc.2022.01.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2021] [Revised: 12/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
|
5
|
Xue R, Yang J, Wu J, Wang Z, Meng Q. Novel Prognostic Models for Predicting the 180-day Outcome for Patients with Hepatitis-B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure. J Clin Transl Hepatol 2021; 9:514-520. [PMID: 34447680 PMCID: PMC8369019 DOI: 10.14218/jcth.2021.00028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 04/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) using existing prognostic models. The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF. METHODS The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients (non-survivors, n=62; survivors, n=109). The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and laboratory values. Backward stepwise logistic regression (LR) and the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to derive two predictive models. Meanwhile, a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis. The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), compared with model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. RESULTS Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients, the mean age was 45.17 years-old, and 11.7% of the patients were female. The LR model was constructed with six independent factors, which included age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, lymphocytes, monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy. The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model: age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and blood urea nitrogen. The AUROC for the CART model (0.878) was similar to that for the LR model (0.878, p=0.898), and this exceeded that for the MELD scores (0.728, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ran Xue
- Department of Medical Oncology, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis & Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Early Drug Development Center, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Department of Integrated Traditional and Western Liver Disease, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Wu
- Department of Medical Oncology, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhongying Wang
- Department of Infection Center, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Qinghua Meng
- Department of Medical Oncology, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- Correspondence to: Qinghua Meng, Department of Medical Oncology, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University. No. 8 Xi Tou Tiao, You An Men Wai Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9967-6403. Tel: +86-10-8399-7160, Fax: +86-10-6329-3371, E-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Johns H, Bernhardt J, Churilov L. Distance-based Classification and Regression Trees for the analysis of complex predictors in health and medical research. Stat Methods Med Res 2021; 30:2085-2104. [PMID: 34319834 DOI: 10.1177/09622802211032712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Predicting patient outcomes based on patient characteristics and care processes is a common task in medical research. Such predictive features are often multifaceted and complex, and are usually simplified into one or more scalar variables to facilitate statistical analysis. This process, while necessary, results in a loss of important clinical detail. While this loss may be prevented by using distance-based predictive methods which better represent complex healthcare features, the statistical literature on such methods is limited, and the range of tools facilitating distance-based analysis is substantially smaller than those of other methods. Consequently, medical researchers must choose to either reduce complex predictive features to scalar variables to facilitate analysis, or instead use a limited number of distance-based predictive methods which may not fulfil the needs of the analysis problem at hand. We address this limitation by developing a Distance-Based extension of Classification and Regression Trees (DB-CART) capable of making distance-based predictions of categorical, ordinal and numeric patient outcomes. We also demonstrate how this extension is compatible with other extensions to CART, including a recently published method for predicting care trajectories in chronic disease. We demonstrate DB-CART by using it to expand upon previously published dose-response analysis of stroke rehabilitation data. Our method identified additional detail not captured by the previously published analysis, reinforcing previous conclusions. We also demonstrate how by combining DB-CART with other extensions to CART, the method is capable of making predictions about complex, multifaceted outcome data based on complex, multifaceted predictive features.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Johns
- Center for Research Excellence in Stroke Rehabilitation and Brain Recovery, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia.,Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia.,Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Julie Bernhardt
- Center for Research Excellence in Stroke Rehabilitation and Brain Recovery, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia.,Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia
| | - Leonid Churilov
- Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia.,Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Chen JF, Weng WZ, Huang M, Peng XH, He JR, Zhang J, Xiong J, Zhang SQ, Cao HJ, Gao B, Lin DN, Gao J, Gao ZL, Lin BL. Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting 90-Day Survival in Patients With HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:692669. [PMID: 34222294 PMCID: PMC8241917 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.692669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Conventional prognostic models do not fully reflect the severity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This study aimed to establish an effective and convenient nomogram for patients with HBV-related ACLF. Methods: A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective cohort of 1,353 patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to June 2016. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and were compared with current scoring systems. The results were validated using an independent retrospective cohort of 669 patients consecutively treated at the same institution from July 2016 to March 2018. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898). Results: Multivariable analysis of the derivation cohort found that independent predictors of 90-day survival were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio, serum creatinine (Cr), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), serum sodium (Na), hepatic encephalopathy (HE), pre-existing chronic liver disease(PreLD), and HBV DNA load. All factors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram calibration curve for the probability of 90-day survival indicated that nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.790, which was statistically significantly greater than those for the current scoring systems in the derivation cohort (P < 0.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF than current commonly used methods.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jun-Feng Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wei-Zhen Weng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Miao Huang
- Department of Nursing, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital, Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiao-Hua Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Jian-Rong He
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jing Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jing Xiong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shao-Quan Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hui-Juan Cao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bin Gao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Deng-Na Lin
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Juan Gao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhi-Liang Gao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.,Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Bing-Liang Lin
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.,Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Zimmerman RK, Nowalk MP, Bear T, Taber R, Clarke KS, Sax TM, Eng H, Clarke LG, Balasubramani GK. Proposed clinical indicators for efficient screening and testing for COVID-19 infection using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2021; 17:1109-1112. [PMID: 33079625 PMCID: PMC8023244 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2020.1822135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2020] [Revised: 08/12/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The introduction and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States resulted in methods to assess, mitigate, and contain the resulting COVID-19 disease derived from limited knowledge. Screening for testing has been based on symptoms typically observed in inpatients, yet outpatient symptoms may differ. Classification and regression trees recursive partitioning created a decision tree classifying participants into laboratory-confirmed cases and non-cases. Demographic and symptom data from patients ages 18-87 years enrolled from March 29-June 8, 2020 were included. Presence or absence of SARS-CoV-2 was the target variable. Of 832 tested, 77 (9.3%) tested positive. Cases significantly more often reported diarrhea (12 percentage points (PP)), fever (15 PP), nausea/vomiting (9 PP), loss of taste/smell (52 PP), and contact with a COVID-19 case (54 PP), but less frequently reported sore throat (-27 PP). The 4-terminal node optimal tree had sensitivity of 69%, specificity of 78%, positive predictive value of 20%, negative predictive value of 97%, and AUC of 76%. Among those referred for testing, negative responses to two questions could classify about half (49%) of tested persons with low risk for SARS-CoV-2 and would save limited testing resources. Outpatient symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be broader than the inpatient syndrome.Initial supplies of anticipated COVID-19 vaccines may be limited and administration of first such available vaccines may need to be prioritized for essential workers, the most vulnerable, or those likely to have a robust response to vaccine. Another priority group could be those not previously infected. Those who screen out of testing may be less likely to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus thus may be prioritized for vaccination when supplies are limited.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Richard K. Zimmerman
- Department of Family Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Mary Patricia Nowalk
- Department of Family Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Todd Bear
- Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Rachel Taber
- Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Karen S. Clarke
- Department of Family Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Theresa M. Sax
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Heather Eng
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Lloyd G. Clarke
- Department of Pharmacy, UPMC Health System, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - G. K. Balasubramani
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Yu M, Li X, Lu Y, Jie Y, Li X, Shi X, Zhong S, Wu Y, Xu W, Liu Z, Chong Y. Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Prediction Model Using Recursive Feature Elimination Algorithm for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Severe Acute Exacerbation. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:748915. [PMID: 34790679 PMCID: PMC8591055 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.748915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) are at a progression stage of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) but uniform models for predicting ACLF occurrence are lacking. We aimed to present a risk prediction model to early identify the patients at a high risk of ACLF and predict the survival of the patient. Methods: We selected the best variable combination using a novel recursive feature elimination algorithm to develop and validate a classification regression model and also an online application on a cloud server from the training cohort with a total of 342 patients with CHB with SAE and two external cohorts with a sample size of 96 and 65 patients, respectively. Findings: An excellent prediction model called the PATA model including four predictors, prothrombin time (PT), age, total bilirubin (Tbil), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) could achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.959 (95% CI 0.941-0.977) in the development set, and AUC of 0.932 (95% CI 0.876-0.987) and 0.905 (95% CI 0.826-0.984) in the two external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve for risk prediction probability of ACLF showed optimal agreement between prediction by PATA model and actual observation. After predictive stratification into different risk groups, the C-index of predictive 90-days mortality was 0.720 (0.675-0.765) for the PATA model, 0.549 (0.506-0.592) for the end-stage liver disease score model, and 0.648 (0.581-0.715) for Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system. Interpretation: The highlypredictive risk model and easy-to-use online application can accurately predict the risk of ACLF with a poor prognosis. They may facilitate risk communication and guidetherapeutic options.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mingxue Yu
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiangyong Li
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yaxin Lu
- The Department of Clinical Data Center, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yusheng Jie
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xinhua Li
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xietong Shi
- The Department of Infectious Disease, Jieyang People's Hospital (Jieyang Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University), Jieyang, China
| | - Shaolong Zhong
- The Department of Infectious Disease, Jieyang People's Hospital (Jieyang Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University), Jieyang, China
| | - Yuankai Wu
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenli Xu
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zifeng Liu
- The Department of Clinical Data Center, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Zifeng Liu
| | - Yutian Chong
- TheDepartment of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- *Correspondence: Yutian Chong
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Artificial liver support system therapy in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Classification and regression tree analysis. Sci Rep 2019; 9:16462. [PMID: 31712684 PMCID: PMC6848208 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53029-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2019] [Accepted: 10/28/2019] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) are widely used to treat patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The aims of the present study were to investigate the subgroups of patients with HBV-ACLF who may benefit from ALSS therapy, and the relevant patient-specific factors. 489 ALSS-treated HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled, and served as derivation and validation cohorts for classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. CART analysis identified three factors prognostic of survival: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), prothrombin time (PT), and total bilirubin (TBil) level; and two distinct risk groups: low (28-day mortality 10.2–39.5%) and high risk (63.8–91.1%). The CART model showed that patients lacking HE and with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and a TBil level ≤455 μmol/L experienced less 28-day mortality after ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients with HE and a PT > 27.8 s, mortality remained high after such therapy. Patients lacking HE with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and TBil level ≤ 455 μmol/L may benefit markedly from ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients at high risk, unnecessary ALSS therapy should be avoided. The CART model is a novel user-friendly tool for screening HBV-ACLF patient eligibility for ALSS therapy, and will aid clinicians via ACLF risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.
Collapse
|
11
|
Shahid AH, Singh M. Computational intelligence techniques for medical diagnosis and prognosis: Problems and current developments. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2019.05.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
|
12
|
Christodoulou E, Ma J, Collins GS, Steyerberg EW, Verbakel JY, Van Calster B. A systematic review shows no performance benefit of machine learning over logistic regression for clinical prediction models. J Clin Epidemiol 2019; 110:12-22. [PMID: 30763612 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 788] [Impact Index Per Article: 157.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2018] [Revised: 01/18/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to compare performance of logistic regression (LR) with machine learning (ML) for clinical prediction modeling in the literature. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We conducted a Medline literature search (1/2016 to 8/2017) and extracted comparisons between LR and ML models for binary outcomes. RESULTS We included 71 of 927 studies. The median sample size was 1,250 (range 72-3,994,872), with 19 predictors considered (range 5-563) and eight events per predictor (range 0.3-6,697). The most common ML methods were classification trees, random forests, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. In 48 (68%) studies, we observed potential bias in the validation procedures. Sixty-four (90%) studies used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess discrimination. Calibration was not addressed in 56 (79%) studies. We identified 282 comparisons between an LR and ML model (AUC range, 0.52-0.99). For 145 comparisons at low risk of bias, the difference in logit(AUC) between LR and ML was 0.00 (95% confidence interval, -0.18 to 0.18). For 137 comparisons at high risk of bias, logit(AUC) was 0.34 (0.20-0.47) higher for ML. CONCLUSION We found no evidence of superior performance of ML over LR. Improvements in methodology and reporting are needed for studies that compare modeling algorithms.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Evangelia Christodoulou
- Department of Development & Regeneration, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49 box 805, Leuven, 3000 Belgium
| | - Jie Ma
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD UK
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD UK; Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, Leiden, 2333 ZA The Netherlands
| | - Jan Y Verbakel
- Department of Development & Regeneration, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49 box 805, Leuven, 3000 Belgium; Department of Public Health & Primary Care, KU Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 33J box 7001, Leuven, 3000 Belgium; Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG UK
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Development & Regeneration, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49 box 805, Leuven, 3000 Belgium; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, Leiden, 2333 ZA The Netherlands.
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Gao F, Zhang Q, Liu Y, Gong G, Mao D, Gong Z, Li J, Luo X, Li X, Chen G, Li Y, Zhao W, Wan G, Li H, Sun K, Wang X. Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Dig Liver Dis 2019; 51:425-433. [PMID: 30241795 DOI: 10.1016/j.dld.2018.08.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2018] [Revised: 08/07/2018] [Accepted: 08/23/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West. AIMS This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) as defined by the Asia Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL). METHODS The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 573 patients with ACHBLF, defined according to the APASL, at the Beijing Ditan Hospital. The results were validated using a bootstrapped approach to correct for bias in two external cohorts, including an APASL ACHBLF cohort (10 hospitals, N = 329) and an EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort (Renji Hospital, N = 300). RESULTS Multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort for survival analysis helped identify the independent factors as age, total bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, and hepatic encephalopathy, which were included in the nomogram. The predictive value of nomogram was the strongest compared with CLIF-C ACLF, MELD and MELD-Na and similar to COSSH-ACLF in both the derivation and prospective validation cohorts with APASL ACHBLF, but the CLIF-C ACLF was better in the EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort. CONCLUSIONS The proposed nomogram could accurately estimate individualized risk for the short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF as defined by APASL.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fangyuan Gao
- Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Qianqian Zhang
- Department of Hepatology, The First Hospital Affiliated to Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha, China
| | - Yao Liu
- Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Guozhong Gong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Center South University, Changsha, China
| | - Dewen Mao
- Department of Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning, China
| | - Zuojiong Gong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jun Li
- Center of Integrative Medicine, 302 Military Hospital of China, Beijing, China
| | - Xinla Luo
- Department of Hepatology, Hubei Provincial Hospital of TCM, Wuhuan, China
| | - Xiaoliang Li
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, The Third People Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China
| | - Guoliang Chen
- Department of Hepatology, Xiamen Hospital of TCM, Xiamen, China
| | - Yong Li
- Department of Hepatology, Shandong Provincial Hospital of TCM, Jinan, China
| | - Wenxia Zhao
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of TCM, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Gang Wan
- Statistics Room, Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Hai Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| | - Kewei Sun
- Department of Hepatology, The First Hospital Affiliated to Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha, China.
| | - Xianbo Wang
- Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Identification of Pancreatic Injury in Patients with Elevated Amylase or Lipase Level Using a Decision Tree Classifier: A Cross-Sectional Retrospective Analysis in a Level I Trauma Center. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15020277. [PMID: 29415489 PMCID: PMC5858346 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15020277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Revised: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Background: In trauma patients, pancreatic injury is rare; however, if undiagnosed, it is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Few predictive models are available for the identification of pancreatic injury in trauma patients with elevated serum pancreatic enzymes. In this study, we aimed to construct a model for predicting pancreatic injury using a decision tree (DT) algorithm, along with data obtained from a population-based trauma registry in a Level I trauma center. Methods: A total of 991 patients with elevated serum levels of amylase (>137 U/L) or lipase (>51 U/L), including 46 patients with pancreatic injury and 865 without pancreatic injury between January 2009 and December 2016, were allocated in a ratio of 7:3 to training (n = 642) or test (n = 269) sets. Using the data on patient and injury characteristics as well as laboratory data, the DT algorithm with Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was performed based on the Gini impurity index, using the rpart function in the rpart package in R. Results: Among the trauma patients with elevated amylase or lipase levels, three groups of patients were identified as having a high risk of pancreatic injury, using the DT model. These included (1) 69% of the patients with lipase level ≥306 U/L; (2) 79% of the patients with lipase level between 154 U/L and 305 U/L and shock index (SI) ≥ 0.72; and (3) 80% of the patients with lipase level <154 U/L with abdomen injury, glucose level <158 mg/dL, amylase level <90 U/L, and neutrophil percentage ≥76%; they had all sustained pancreatic injury. With all variables in the model, the DT achieved an accuracy of 97.9% (sensitivity of 91.4% and specificity of 98.3%) for the training set. In the test set, the DT achieved an accuracy of 93.3%, sensitivity of 72.7%, and specificity of 94.2%. Conclusions: We established a DT model using lipase, SI, and additional conditions (injury to the abdomen, glucose level <158 mg/dL, amylase level <90 U/L, and neutrophils ≥76%) as important nodes to predict three groups of patients with a high risk of pancreatic injury. The proposed decision-making algorithm may help in identifying pancreatic injury among trauma patients with elevated serum amylase or lipase levels.
Collapse
|
15
|
Kuo PJ, Wu SC, Chien PC, Rau CS, Chen YC, Hsieh HY, Hsieh CH. Derivation and validation of different machine-learning models in mortality prediction of trauma in motorcycle riders: a cross-sectional retrospective study in southern Taiwan. BMJ Open 2018; 8:e018252. [PMID: 29306885 PMCID: PMC5781097 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to build and test the models of machine learning (ML) to predict the mortality of hospitalised motorcycle riders. SETTING The study was conducted in a level-1 trauma centre in southern Taiwan. PARTICIPANTS Motorcycle riders who were hospitalised between January 2009 and December 2015 were classified into a training set (n=6306) and test set (n=946). Using the demographic information, injury characteristics and laboratory data of patients, logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT) analyses were performed to determine the mortality of individual motorcycle riders, under different conditions, using all samples or reduced samples, as well as all variables or selected features in the algorithm. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES The predictive performance of the model was evaluated based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean, and an analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the two different models was carried out. RESULTS In the training set, both LR and SVM had a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than DT. No significant difference was observed in the AUC of LR and SVM, regardless of whether all samples or reduced samples and whether all variables or selected features were used. In the test set, the performance of the SVM model for all samples with selected features was better than that of all other models, with an accuracy of 98.73%, sensitivity of 86.96%, specificity of 99.02%, geometric mean of 92.79% and AUC of 0.9517, in mortality prediction. CONCLUSION ML can provide a feasible level of accuracy in predicting the mortality of motorcycle riders. Integration of the ML model, particularly the SVM algorithm in the trauma system, may help identify high-risk patients and, therefore, guide appropriate interventions by the clinical staff.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pao-Jen Kuo
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Shao-Chun Wu
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Peng-Chen Chien
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Shyuan Rau
- Department of Neurosurgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Chun Chen
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Hsiao-Yun Hsieh
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ching-Hua Hsieh
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Rau CS, Wu SC, Chien PC, Kuo PJ, Chen YC, Hsieh HY, Hsieh CH. Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Isolated Traumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using a Decision Tree Classifier: A Retrospective Analysis Based on a Trauma Registry System. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 14:ijerph14111420. [PMID: 29165330 PMCID: PMC5708059 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14111420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2017] [Revised: 11/14/2017] [Accepted: 11/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Background: In contrast to patients with traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) in the presence of other types of intracranial hemorrhage, the prognosis of patients with isolated tSAH is good. The incidence of mortality in these patients ranges from 0–2.5%. However, few data or predictive models are available for the identification of patients with a high mortality risk. In this study, we aimed to construct a model for mortality prediction using a decision tree (DT) algorithm, along with data obtained from a population-based trauma registry, in a Level 1 trauma center. Methods: Five hundred and forty-five patients with isolated tSAH, including 533 patients who survived and 12 who died, between January 2009 and December 2016, were allocated to training (n = 377) or test (n = 168) sets. Using the data on demographics and injury characteristics, as well as laboratory data of the patients, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed based on the Gini impurity index, using the rpart function in the rpart package in R. Results: In this established DT model, three nodes (head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score ≤4, creatinine (Cr) <1.4 mg/dL, and age <76 years) were identified as important determinative variables in the prediction of mortality. Of the patients with isolated tSAH, 60% of those with a head AIS >4 died, as did the 57% of those with an AIS score ≤4, but Cr ≥1.4 and age ≥76 years. All patients who did not meet the above-mentioned criteria survived. With all the variables in the model, the DT achieved an accuracy of 97.9% (sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 98.1%) and 97.7% (sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 97.7%), for the training set and test set, respectively. Conclusions: The study established a DT model with three nodes (head AIS score ≤4, Cr <1.4, and age <76 years) to predict fatal outcomes in patients with isolated tSAH. The proposed decision-making algorithm may help identify patients with a high risk of mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Shyuan Rau
- Department of Neurosurgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Shao-Chun Wu
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Peng-Chen Chien
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Pao-Jen Kuo
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Yi-Chun Chen
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Hsiao-Yun Hsieh
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| | - Ching-Hua Hsieh
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan.
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio predicts the prognosis in HBV-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure. Clin Chim Acta 2017; 476:92-97. [PMID: 29170103 DOI: 10.1016/j.cca.2017.11.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2017] [Revised: 11/18/2017] [Accepted: 11/19/2017] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) is a new noninvasive marker for assessing liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the performance of GPR for prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS A total of 355 patients with HBV-associated ACLF were enrolled from two clinical centers and divided into training group (n=210) and validation group (n=145). Potential risk factors for 90-day mortality were analyzed. RESULTS Age, MELD score and GPR were independent risk factors associated with ACLF prognosis. A new scoring system (MELD-GPR) was developed. MELD-GPR=9.211-0.029×age-0.290×MELD-0.460×GPR. For ACLF patients with liver cirrhosis, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of MELD-GPR was 0.788, which was significantly higher than that of MELD and MELD-Na (0.706 and 0.666, respectively). Patients were stratified into three groups according to MELD-GPR scores (high risk: <-0.19, intermediate risk: -0.19-0.95, and low risk: >0.95), and the high-risk group (MELD-GPR<-0.19) had a poor prognosis (P<0.01). For ACLF patients without liver cirrhosis, MELD-GPR<0.95 predicted a poor prognosis. CONCLUSIONS Incorporating GPR into MELD may provide more accurate survival prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF.
Collapse
|