Australia on track to achieve WHO HCV elimination targets following rapid initial DAA treatment uptake: A modelling study

The 'missing' in the 'endgame' of hepatitis C elimination: A qualitative study in New South Wales, Australia

INTRODUCTION

After a promising start in Australia, elimination efforts for hepatitis C are not on track. Following the global campaign to 'find the missing' in hepatitis C response, this qualitative study explores stakeholder perspectives on the 'missing' in the 'endgame' of hepatitis elimination in the state of New South Wales, Australia.

METHOD

Twenty-eight key informants working in New South Wales, elsewhere in Australia and internationally in high income countries participated in a semi-structured qualitative interview. Analysis examined key informant accounts of the 'missing' in efforts to eliminate hepatitis C.

RESULTS

Participants' accounts framed the missing in relation to epidemiological knowledge, making-up four population categories 'missing' or 'missed' in hepatitis C response. In turn, accounts situated the missing in relation to where and how individuals were presumed to connect, or not, with existing health-care infrastructures. This gave rise to concerns about the capacity of health services to be made available for those at risk or in need, with systems said to create opportunities for people to 'miss out' on hepatitis C services.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The 'missing' in the 'endgame' of hepatitis C elimination effort is not simply a function of who-populations missed-but of where and how, that is, situation and context. Our findings encourage a focus on how services, systems and contexts may create situations in which people become missed or are 'made missing' from care. We therefore advocate for a systemic, and not only population-based, approach in the final push towards hepatitis C's elimination.

Hepatitis C (HCV) Reinfection and Risk Factors among Clients of a Low-Threshold Primary Healthcare Service for People Who Inject Drugs in Sydney, Australia

Hepatitis C (HCV) reinfection studies have not focused on primary healthcare services in Australia, where priority populations including people who inject drugs (PWID) typically engage in healthcare. We aimed to describe the incidence of HCV reinfection and associated risk factors in a cohort of people most at risk of reinfection in a real-world community setting. We conducted a secondary analysis of routinely collected HCV testing and treatment data from treatment episodes initiated with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy between October 2015 and June 2021. The overall proportion of clients (N = 413) reinfected was 9% (N = 37), and the overall incidence rate of HCV reinfection was 9.5/100PY (95% CI: 6.3-14.3). Reinfection incidence rates varied by sub-group and were highest for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people (20.4/100PY; 95% CI: 12.1-34.4). Among PWID (N= 321), only Aboriginality was significantly associated with reinfection (AOR: 2.73, 95% CI: 1.33-5.60, p = 0.006). High rates of HCV reinfection in populations with multiple vulnerabilities and continued drug use, especially among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, highlight the need for ongoing regular HCV testing and retreatment in order to achieve HCV elimination. A priority is resourcing testing and treatment for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people. Our findings support the need for novel and holistic healthcare strategies for PWID and the upscaling of Indigenous cultural approaches and interventions.

In search of a 'good number': knowledge controversy and population estimates in the endgame of hepatitis C elimination

We explore the contentious life of a metric used to assess a country's progress in relation to global disease elimination targets. Our topic is hepatitis C elimination, and our context is Australia. A fundamental metric in the calculation of progress toward hepatitis C elimination targets, as set by the WHO, is the population prevalence of people living with hepatitis C. In Australia, this modelled estimate has generated some controversy, largely through its repeated downsizing as an effect of calculus. The 2015 baseline population estimate in Australia, from which measures of current elimination progress are assessed, has reduced, over time, by around 30%. Informed by a social study of science approach, we used qualitative interviews with 32 experts to explore the knowledge controversy. The controversy is narrated through the core concerns of 'scale' and 'care', with narratives aligning differently to imaginaries of 'science' and 'community'. We trace how constitutions of 'estimate' and 'number' circulate in relation to 'population' and 'people', and as affective values. We show how enactments of estimates and numbers materialise hepatitis elimination in different ways, with policy implications. The event of the knowledge controversy opens up the social and political life of enumerations-for science and community-inviting deliberation on how to make 'good numbers' in the race to eliminate hepatitis C.

'There's too much power in this number. It's freaking the whole response out': The views of key informants on evidence and targets to achieve hepatitis C elimination goals in Australia

Enumeration of disease is a key management tool. Setting of targets, like for hepatitis C elimination, have deep meaning and effect. We use the case of elimination in New South Wales (NSW), Australia to examine key informants' understandings of the use of targets, and the evidence that informs them, to drive action in elimination. Twenty-eight key informants working in NSW, elsewhere in Australia and internationally in high-income countries participated in a semi-structured qualitative interview in 2022. Analysis was informed by scholarship calling for examination of the ways in which science constructs what is thought possible in action. Participants pointed to the power of quantified evidence and targets and their complex effects, and questioned the usefulness and certainty derived from these at the "pointy end" of elimination. Although a range of targets exist in global and local strategies, reaching testing targets was the assumed solution to achieving elimination. Achieving elimination was thought to require "off piste" and experimental approaches that went beyond available evidence. The different types of work that participants felt necessary for late-stage elimination may require additional metrics to explain return on investment ratios. What threshold would be used to reduce efforts in elimination was a major concern. These data indicate that understandings of the evidence underpinning elimination targets and how to achieve them are far from settled. At this point, elimination efforts may need to rely on locally produced and community-driven evidence and shift from evidence-based to evidence-making paradigm.

Sexual and drug use risk behaviour trajectories among people treated for recent HCV infection: the REACT study

INTRODUCTION

Exploration of sexual and drug use behaviours following treatment for recent hepatitis C virus (HCV) is limited. This analysis modelled behavioural trajectories following treatment for recent HCV and assessed reinfection.

METHODS

Participants treated for recent HCV in an international trial (enrolled 2017-2019) were followed at 3-monthly intervals for up to 2 years to assess longitudinal behaviours. Population-averaged changes were assessed using generalized estimating equations. Distinct behavioural trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. HCV reinfection incidence was calculated using person-years (PY) of observation.

RESULTS

During the follow-up of 212 participants (84% gay and bisexual men [GBM]; 69% HIV; 26% current injecting drug use [IDU]), behavioural trajectories for IDU and stimulant use (past month) did not change. However, population-averaged decreases in the likelihood of daily IDU (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.83; 95% CI 0.72, 0.95) and opioid use (AOR 0.84; 95% CI 0.75, 0.93) were observed. Among GBM, behavioural trajectories for chemsex did not change. Population-averaged decreases in condomless anal intercourse with casual male partners (CAI-CMP) (AOR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90, 0.99) and group-sex (AOR 0.86; 95% CI 0.80, 0.93) were observed, but masked distinct trajectories. While a proportion had a decreased probability of CAI-CMP (23%) and group-sex (59%) post-treatment, a substantial proportion retained a high probability of these behaviours. High HCV reinfection incidence was observed for the sustained high probability IDU (33.0/100 PY; 95% CI 17.7, 61.3) and chemsex (23.3/100 PY; 95% CI 14.5, 37.5) trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Limited sexual and drug use behavioural change was observed following treatment for recent HCV, supporting access to surveillance and (re)treatment.

Removing hepatitis C antibody testing for Australian blood donations: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The risk of transfusion-transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is extremely low in Australia. This study aims to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of different testing strategies for HCV infection in blood donations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The four testing strategies evaluated in this study were universal testing with both HCV antibody (anti-HCV) and nucleic acid testing (NAT); anti-HCV and NAT for first-time donations and NAT only for repeat donations; anti-HCV and NAT for transfusible component donations and NAT only for plasma for further manufacture; and universal testing with NAT only. A decision-analytical model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative HCV testing strategies. Sensitivity analysis and threshold analysis were conducted to account for data uncertainty.

RESULTS

The number of potential transfusion-transmitted cases of acute hepatitis C and chronic hepatitis C was approximately zero in all four strategies. Universal testing with NAT only was the most cost-effective strategy due to the lowest testing cost. The threshold analysis showed that for the current practice to be cost-effective, the residual risks of other testing strategies would have to be at least 1 HCV infection in 2424 donations, which is over 60,000 times the baseline residual risk (1 in 151 million donations).

CONCLUSION

The screening strategy for HCV in blood donations currently implemented in Australia is not cost-effective compared with targeted testing or universal testing with NAT only. Partial or total removal of anti-HCV testing would bring significant cost savings without compromising blood recipient safety.

The rate of hepatitis C reinfection in Canadians coinfected with HIV and its implications for national elimination

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has set targets for the rate of new infections as a way to measure progress towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat. As more people are successfully treated for HCV, a higher proportion of new infections will be reinfections. We consider whether the reinfection rate has changed since the interferon era and what we can infer about national elimination efforts from the current reinfection rate.

METHODS

The Canadian Coinfection Cohort is representative of HIV HCV coinfected people in clinical care. We selected cohort participants successfully treated for a primary HCV infection either in the interferon era or in the era of direct acting antivirals (DAAs). Selected participants were followed from 12 weeks after completing a successful treatment until the end of 2019 or until their last measured HCV RNA. We estimated the reinfection rate in each treatment era, overall and in participant subgroups, using proportional hazard models appropriate for interval censored data.

RESULTS

Among 814 successfully treated participants with additional HCV RNA measurements, there were 62 reinfections. The overall reinfection rate was 2.6 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-4.1) /100 person years (PY) in the interferon era and 3.4 (95% CI 2.5-4.4) /100 PY in the DAA era. The rate in those reporting injection drug use (IDU) was much higher: 4.7 (95% CI 1.4-7.9) /100 PY and 7.6 (95% CI 5.3-10) /100 PY in the interferon and DAA eras respectively.

CONCLUSION

The overall reinfection rate in our cohort is now above the WHO target set for new infections in people who inject drugs. The reinfection rate in those reporting IDU has increased since the interferon era. This suggests Canada is not on track to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Prison-based interventions are key to achieving HCV elimination among people who inject drugs in New South Wales, Australia: A modelling study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates which are associated with increased hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We assess the importance of prison-based interventions for achieving HCV elimination among PWID in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

A model of incarceration and HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated in a Bayesian framework to epidemiological and incarceration data from NSW, incorporating elevated HCV acquisition risk among recently released PWID. We projected the contribution of differences in transmission risk during/following incarceration to HCV transmission over 2020-2029. We estimated the past and potential future impact of prison-based opioid agonist therapy (OAT; ~33% coverage) and HCV treatment (1500 treatments in 2019 with 32.9%-83.3% among PWID) on HCV transmission. We estimated the time until HCV incidence reduces by 80% (WHO elimination target) compared to 2016 levels with or without prison-based interventions.

RESULTS

Over 2020-2029, incarceration will contribute 23.0% (17.9-30.5) of new HCV infections. If prison-based interventions had not been implemented since 2010, HCV incidence in 2020 would have been 29.7% (95% credibility interval: 22.4-36.1) higher. If current prison and community HCV treatment rates continue, there is an 98.8% probability that elimination targets will be achieved by 2030, with this decreasing to 10.1% without current prison-based interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing prison-based interventions in NSW are critical components of strategies to reduce HCV incidence among PWID. Prison-based interventions are likely to be pivotal for achieving HCV elimination targets among PWID by 2030.

Global Epidemiology and Genetics of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Classically, HCC develops in genetically susceptible individuals who are exposed to risk factors, especially in the presence of liver cirrhosis. Significant temporal and geographic variations exist for HCC and its etiologies. Over time, the burden of HCC has shifted from the low-moderate to the high sociodemographic index regions, reflecting the transition from viral to nonviral causes. Geographically, the hepatitis viruses predominate as the causes of HCC in Asia and Africa. Although there are genetic conditions that confer increased risk for HCC, these diagnoses are rarely recognized outside North America and Europe. In this review, we will evaluate the epidemiologic trends and risk factors of HCC, and discuss the genetics of HCC, including monogenic diseases, single-nucleotide polymorphisms, gut microbiome, and somatic mutations.

Treatment as prevention effect of direct-acting antivirals on primary hepatitis C virus incidence: Findings from a multinational cohort between 2010 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Broad direct-acting antiviral (DAA) access may reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence through a "treatment as prevention" (TasP) effect. We assessed changes in primary HCV incidence following DAA access among people living with HIV (PLHIV).

METHODS

We used pooled individual-level data from six cohorts from the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC). Follow-up started from the first recorded negative HCV antibody test date and ended at last negative antibody test or estimated infection date. Follow-up was restricted to 2010-2019. We used segmented Poisson regression to model trends across pre-, limited- (i.e., restrictions on access) and broad-DAA access periods.

FINDINGS

Overall, 45,942 participants had at least one HCV antibody negative result and follow-up between 2010 and 2019. We observed 2042 incident HCV infections over 248,189 person-years (PY). Pooled incidence decreased from 0.91 per 100 PY in 2015 to 0.41 per 100 PY in 2019. Compared to the average pre-DAA period incidence (0.90 per 100 PY), average incidence was similar during the limited-DAA access period (Incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.98; 95%CI = 0.87, 1.11), and 52% lower during the broad-DAA access period (IRR = 0.48; 95%CI = 0.42, 0.52). The average annual decline in HCV incidence was 2% in the pre-DAA period; an additional 9% annual decline in incidence was observed during the limited-DAA access period (IRR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.82, 1.00) and a further 20% decline in the broad-DAA access period (IRR = 0.80, 95%CI = 0.73, 0.89).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that broad DAA access has a TasP effect on primary HCV incidence among PLHIV. Based on the initial years of DAA availability, the countries in the InCHEHC collaboration are on track to meet the World Health Organization's 80% HCV incidence reduction target for PLHIV by 2030.

FUNDING

This study was funded by the Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant number GNT1132902).

Modelling the microelimination of chronic hepatitis C in the canton of Bern, Switzerland: Reaching the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals despite the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic

Aims of the study

Since 2014, the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy (SHS) has targeted the elimination of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in Switzerland. The epidemiology of HCV is diverse across Swiss cantons, therefore cantonal-level screening and treatment strategies should be developed. This study aimed to identify scenarios to achieve HCV elimination in the canton of Bern by 2030.

Methods

A preexisting Markov disease burden model was populated with data for Bern, and used to forecast the current and future prevalence of HCV, annual liver-related deaths (LRDs), and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis until 2030. Scenarios were developed to assess the current standard of care and potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the HCV infected population. Additionally, potential scenarios for achieving the WHO 2030 targets and the SHS 2025 and 2030 targets (reduction of new cases of HCV, HCV-related mortality and viremic HCV cases) were identified.

Results

In 2019, there were an estimated 4,600 (95% UI: 3,330–4,940) viremic infections in the canton of Bern and 57% (n = 2,600) of viremic cases were diagnosed. This modelling forecasted a 10% increase in LRDs (28 in 2020 to 31 in 2030) with the current standard of care and a 50% increase in LRDs in a scenario assuming long-term delays. To achieve the WHO and SHS targets, the canton of Bern needs to increase the annual number of patients diagnosed (from 90 in 2019 to 250 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO], or 500 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]) and treated (from 130 in 2019 to 340 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO] or 670 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]).

Conclusions

The SHS goals and the WHO targets for HCV elimination can be achieved in the Swiss canton of Bern by 2030; however, not at the current pace of screening, linkage to care and treatment.

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on hepatitis C testing in Australian primary care services providing care for people who inject drugs

In 2020, the Australian state of Victoria experienced the longest COVID-19 lockdowns of any jurisdiction, with two lockdowns starting in March and July, respectively. Lockdowns may impact progress towards eliminating hepatitis C through reductions in hepatitis C testing. To examine the impact of lockdowns on hepatitis C testing in Victoria, de-identified data were extracted from a network of 11 services that specialize in the care of people who inject drugs (PWID). Interrupted time-series analyses estimated weekly changes in hepatitis C antibody and RNA testing from 1 January 2019 to 14 May 2021 and described temporal changes in testing associated with lockdowns. Interruptions were defined at the weeks corresponding to the start of the first lockdown (week 14) and the start (week 80) and end (week 95) of the second lockdown. Pre-COVID, an average of 80.6 antibody and 25.7 RNA tests were performed each week. Following the first lockdown in Victoria, there was an immediate drop of 23.2 antibody tests and 8.6 RNA tests per week (equivalent to a 31% and 46% drop, respectively). Following the second lockdown, there was an immediate drop of 17.2 antibody tests and 4.6 RNA tests per week (equivalent to a 26% and 33% drop, respectively). With testing and case finding identified as a key challenge to Australia achieving hepatitis C elimination targets, the cumulative number of testing opportunities missed during lockdowns may prolong efforts to find, diagnose and engage or reengage in care of the remaining population of PWID living with hepatitis C.

The impact of point-of-care hepatitis C testing in needle and syringe exchange programs on linkage to care and treatment uptake among people who inject drugs: An Australian pilot study

Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics overcome barriers to conventional hepatitis C (HCV) testing in people who inject drugs. This study assessed impact on hepatitis C treatment uptake of POC HCV testing in needle and syringe exchange programs (NSPs). Rapid EC was a single-arm interventional pilot study of HCV POC testing conducted in three inner-city community clinics with NSPs. Twelve months after the POC testing, a retrospective medical record and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme audit was performed to determine the number of HCV RNA-positive participants who were prescribed HCV treatment. 70 HCV RNA-positive Rapid EC study participants were included. 44 (63%) were prescribed DAAs; 26 (59%) completed treatment and 15 (34%) had SVR testing, all of whom were cured. Age ≥ 40 years (aOR 3.45, 95% CI 1.10-11.05, p = .03) and secondary school education (aOR 5.8, 95% CI 1.54-21.80, p = .009) had higher likelihood of being prescribed DAAs, whereas homelessness was inversely associated with prescription of DAAs (aOR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09-1.04, p = .057). Median time to receive a DAA script from date of diagnosis was seven days (IQR 0 to 14 days), and time to filling the DAA prescription was 2 days (IQR 0-12 days). In conclusion, provision of POC testing through NSPs was effective for linking new clients to HCV treatment and reduced the time to treatment. Further studies are needed to define the most cost-effective use of POC testing in models of care for people who inject drugs to increase HCV treatment uptake.

Turning the Tide on Hepatitis C Virus-Related Liver Transplantation: The Return on Investment in Hepatitis C Virus Treatment in Australia and New Zealand

Introduction of universal access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Australia and New Zealand on March 1^st , 2016, has had a major impact on the number of people with chronic HCV infection, but the impact on liver transplantation rates is unknown. We conducted a retrospective registry study including all adult liver transplantations from the Australia and New Zealand Liver and Intestinal Liver Transplant Registry (ANZLITR) data set. Interrupted time series analysis determined the impact of DAAs in 2016 on the number of HCV liver transplantations per year. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the impact of DAAs on post-liver transplantation survival. Between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2019 5318 adult liver transplantations were performed, and 29% (1531) were for HCV infection. Prior to the introduction of DAAs, there was a mean increase of 3.5 adult liver transplantations performed for HCV per annum, but between 2016 and 2019 there was a mean decrease of 7.9 adult liver transplantations per annum (P < 0.001). Similarly, the proportion of liver transplantations performed for HCV increased from 9% (1990) to 33% in 2016 and then fell to 23% in 2019 (P < 0.001). The number and proportion of patients with HCV added to the liver transplantation waiting list also fell in 2016 (P < 0.001) when compared with other indications. The introduction of DAAs was associated with a 31% reduction in death after liver transplantation, adjusted for age at transplant and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; hazard ratio [HR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.99; P = 0.047). The number of adult liver transplantations performed for HCV-related liver cirrhosis and HCC has reduced since the introduction of universal access to DAAs in 2016 in Australia and New Zealand.

Assessment of the cost-effectiveness of Australia's risk-sharing agreement for direct-acting antiviral treatments for hepatitis C: a modelling study

Background

Hepatitis C elimination may be possible with broad uptake of direct-acting antiviral treatments (DAAs). In 2016 the Australian government committed A$1.2 billion for five years of unlimited DAAs (March 2016 to February 2021) in a risk-sharing agreement with pharmaceutical companies. We assess the impact, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefits likely to be realised from this investment.

Methods

Mathematical modelling to project outcomes for 2016-2030 included: (S1) a counter-factual scenario (testing/treatment maintained at pre-2016 levels); (S2) the current status-quo (testing/treatment as actually occurred 2016-2019, with trends maintained to 2030); and (S3) elimination scenario (S2 plus testing/treatment rates increased between 2021-2030 to achieve the WHO elimination targets).

Findings

S1 resulted in 68,800 new hepatitis C infections and 18,540 hepatitis C-related deaths over 2016-2030. The total health system cost (HCV testing, treatment, disease management) was A$3.01 billion and the cost of lost productivity due to absenteeism, presenteeism and premature deaths was A$26.14 billion. S2 averted 15,700 (23%) new infections and 8,500 (46%) deaths by 2030, with a total health system cost of A$3.48 billion, A$472 million more than S1 (A$1.65 billion more in testing/treatment but A$1.20 billion less in disease costs; A$5,752 per QALY gained from a health systems perspective). Productivity loss over 2016-2030 was A$19.96 billion, A$6.17 less than S1, making S2 cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022 with a net economic benefit of A$5.70 billion by 2030. S3 averted an additional 10,000 infections and 930 deaths compared with S2 and increased the longer-term economic benefit.

Interpretation

Five years of unrestricted access to DAAs in Australia has led to significant health benefits and is likely to become cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022.

Funding

Burnet Institute

Hepatitis C virus cascade of care among people who inject drugs in Australia: Factors associated with testing and treatment in a universal healthcare system

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors associated with engagement across the hepatitis C virus (HCV) cascade of care (CoC) among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for developing targeted interventions to enhance engagement and further HCV elimination efforts. We describe the CoC among Australian PWID, and identify factors associated with engagement at each stage.

METHODS

As part of the 2018 and 2019 Illicit Drug Reporting System, Australians who regularly inject drugs reported lifetime HCV antibody and RNA testing, treatment uptake and completion. Multivariable logistic regression identified characteristics associated with outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 1499 participants, 87% reported antibody testing. Of those, 70% reported RNA testing, of whom 60% reported being RNA positive. Among those, 76% reported initiating treatment, 78% of whom completed. Incarceration history (adjusted odds ratio 1.90; 95% confidence interval 1.28-2.82), current opioid agonist treatment (OAT) (1.99; 1.14-3.47), and recent alcohol and other drug (AOD) counselling (2.22; 1.27-3.88) were associated with antibody testing. Incarceration history (1.42; 1.07-1.87), and current OAT (2.07; 1.51-2.86) were associated with RNA testing. Current OAT (1.92; 1.22-3.03) and recent AOD counselling (1.91; 1.16-3.13) were associated with treatment uptake. Methamphetamine as drug injected most often in the last month was associated with reduced odds of antibody (0.41; 0.25-0.66) and RNA testing (0.54; 0.40-0.74), compared to heroin.

CONCLUSION

CoC engagement amongst Australian PWID is encouraging, with AOD service engagement associated with testing and treatment. Further efforts to reach those not service engaged, particularly those not receiving OAT or who predominantly inject methamphetamine, are needed to achieve HCV elimination targets.

Global cascade of care for chronic hepatitis C virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The World Health Organization 2030 targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination include diagnosing 90% of people with HCV and treating 80% of people diagnosed with HCV. This systematic review assessed reported data on the HCV care cascade in various countries and populations, with a focus on direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake. Bibliographic databases and conference presentations were searched for studies reporting the HCV care cascade (DAA treatment uptake was a requirement) among the overall population with HCV or sub-populations at greater risk of HCV. Population-based studies, with participants representative of a city, province/state or country were eligible. Twenty eligible studies were included, reporting HCV care cascade in 28 populations/sub-populations from 11 countries. DAA treatment uptake at national levels was reported from Iceland (95%), Egypt (92%), Georgia (79%), Norway (18%) and Sweden (8%), and at sub-national levels from the Netherlands (52%), Canada (50%), the United States (29%) and Denmark (5%). Among people with HIV-HCV co-infection, DAA treatment uptake was 62% in Canada, 44% in the Netherlands, 21% in Switzerland and 18% in the United States. Among people who inject drugs, DAA treatment uptake was 50% in Georgia, 40% in Canada, 37% in Australia and 13% in the United States. Data among people experiencing homelessness were only available from the United States (treatment uptake: 12%-14%). We found no eligible study reporting HCV care cascade data in prisons. Relatively few countries reported HCV care cascade at the national level. DAA treatment uptake was widely varied across populations/sub-populations, with higher rates reported in recent years.

The Netherlands Is on Track to Meet the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Targets by 2030

Background: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well-supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. Methods: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). Results: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO’s elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver-related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liver-related death from 2020–2030. Conclusions: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.

Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications

Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia’s progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.

Progress Towards Elimination of Hepatitis C Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs in Australia: The ETHOS Engage Study

BACKGROUND

Evaluating progress towards hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is critical. This study estimated prevalence of current HCV infection and HCV treatment uptake among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Australia.

METHODS

The Enhancing Treatment of Hepatitis C in Opioid Substitution Settings Engage is an observational study of PWID attending drug treatment clinics and needle and syringe programs (NSPs). Participants completed a questionnaire including self-reported treatment history and underwent point-of-care HCV RNA testing (Xpert HCV Viral Load Fingerstick; Cepheid).

RESULTS

Between May 2018 and September 2019, 1443 participants were enrolled (64% injected drugs in the last month, 74% receiving opioid agonist therapy [OAT]). HCV infection status was uninfected (28%), spontaneous clearance (16%), treatment-induced clearance (32%), and current infection (24%). Current HCV was more likely among people who were homeless (adjusted odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.16), incarcerated in the previous year (2.04; 1.38-3.02), and those injecting drugs daily or more (2.26; 1.43-2.42). Among those with previous chronic or current HCV, 66% (n = 520/788) reported HCV treatment. In adjusted analysis, HCV treatment was lower among females (.68; .48-.95), participants who were homeless (.59; .38-.96), and those injecting daily or more (.51; .31-.89). People aged ≥45 years (1.46; 1.06-2.01) and people receiving OAT (2.62; 1.52-4.51) were more likely to report HCV treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Unrestricted direct-acting antiviral therapy access in Australia has yielded high treatment uptake among PWID attending drug treatment and NSPs, with a marked decline in HCV prevalence. To achieve elimination, PWID with greater marginalization may require additional support and tailored strategies to enhance treatment.

"It's time!": A qualitative exploration of the acceptability of hepatitis C notification systems to help eliminate hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

In Australia, the unrestricted and subsidised availability of direct-acting antivirals for people living with hepatitis C has made the elimination of hepatitis C possible. Recent declining treatment uptake, however, may jeopardise the attainment of this goal. Notification data already exist in many jurisdictions but are presently under-utilised. Despite growing interest in the potential use of data to link people diagnosed with hepatitis C to treatment services, little evidence exists on the acceptability and feasibility of this approach. Our study aimed to address this gap and guide future strategies to enhance treatment uptake.

METHODS

Twenty-seven people with lived experience of injecting drug use and/or hepatitis C participated in two focus groups exploring views on implementing a system of hepatitis C notification follow-up in Australia, that would direct people to treatment and care. Additionally, qualitative interviews were conducted with 20 key informants to examine the ethical, logistical, and regulatory implications of implementation. Data were thematically analysed using the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability - which has been used to assess the acceptability of interventions from the perspectives of intervention deliverers and recipients.

RESULTS

While there were clear reservations, there was consensus that the potential benefits of using notification data to contact people with hepatitis C, outweigh harms. The method of contact (including by whom and how), whether follow-up should include recent versus historical diagnoses, and if record linkage should be used to enhance follow-up were important considerations. Ethical and logistical concerns were raised about the risk that such an approach could exacerbate stigma and discrimination.

CONCLUSION

Findings highlight potentially significant benefits of using notifications data to increase access to hepatitis C treatment, a novel approach that can contribute to hepatitis C elimination efforts and prevent hepatitis C-related morbidity and mortality.

Reinfection Following Successful Direct-acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs

BACKGROUND

The aim of this analysis was to calculate the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) reinfection and associated factors among 2 clinical trials of HCV direct-acting antiviral treatment in people with recent injecting drug use or currently receiving opioid agonist therapy (OAT).

METHODS

Participants who achieved an end-of-treatment response in 2 clinical trials of people with recent injecting drug use or currently receiving OAT (SIMPLIFY and D3FEAT) enrolled between March 2016 and February 2017 in 8 countries were assessed for HCV reinfection, confirmed by viral sequencing. Incidence was calculated using person-time of observation and associated factors were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Seventy-three percent of the population at risk of reinfection (n = 177; median age, 48 years; 73% male) reported ongoing injecting drug use. Total follow-up time at risk was 254 person-years (median, 1.8 years; range, 0.2-2.8 years). Eight cases of reinfection were confirmed for an incidence of 3.1/100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-6.3) overall and 17.9/100 person-years (95% CI, 5.8-55.6) among those who reported sharing needles/syringes. Younger age and needle/syringe sharing were associated with HCV reinfection.

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate the need for ongoing monitoring and improved strategies to prevent HCV reinfection following successful treatment among people with ongoing injecting drug use to achieve HCV elimination.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02336139 and NCT02498015.

Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Higher Among People Notified With Markers of Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Population-based Surveillance in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2017

BACKGROUND

Worse outcomes from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have been reported among those coinfected with hepatitis C. We aimed to establish if IPD notification rates are higher among people notified with markers of hepatitis C virus infection than the general population.

METHODS

IPD cases notified in Victoria, Australia, from July 2001-December 2017 were linked with hepatitis C cases (diagnosed by serology or PCR testing) notified from January 1991-December 2017. IPD incidence was calculated using population data and the estimated number of Victorians with hepatitis C.

RESULTS

From July 2001-December 2017, 6407 IPD cases were notified. Hepatitis C infection was notified in 342 (5.3%) of IPD cases overall, and 24.4% among IPD cases aged 45-49 years. Among IPD cases also notified with hepatitis C, 55.3% were infected with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes and 82.8% with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine serotypes. Compared with IPD cases without hepatitis C, IPD cases also notified with hepatitis C were younger (mean age, 45.7 vs 49.4 years; P = .011) and more often male (65.5% vs 55.5%, P < .001). Annual IPD notification incidence was 6.8/100 000 among people without hepatitis C and 39.4/100 000 among people with hepatitis C (IRR, 5.8; 95% CI, 5.2-6.4; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

IPD notification incidence was 5 times higher among people notified with markers of hepatitis C than the general population. Pneumococcal vaccination should be offered to people with markers of hepatitis C virus infection. To facilitate appropriate treatment, young and middle-aged adults with IPD should be tested for hepatitis C.

Excitable models: Projections, targets, and the making of futures without disease

In efforts to control disease, mathematical models and numerical targets play a key role. We take the elimination of a viral infection as a case for exploring mathematical models as 'evidence-making interventions'. Using interviews with mathematical modellers and implementation scientists, and focusing on the emergence of models of 'treatment-as-prevention' in hepatitis C control, we trace how projections detach from their calculative origins as social and policy practices. Drawing on the work of Michel Callon and others, we show that modelled projections of viral elimination circulate as 'qualculations', taking flight via their affects, including as anticipation. Modelled numerical targets do not need 'actual numbers' or precise measurements to perform their authority as evidence of viral elimination or as situated matters-of-concern. Modellers grapple with the ways that their models transform in policy and social practices, apparently beyond reasonable calculus. We highlight how practices of 'holding-on' to projections in relation to imaginaries of 'evidence-based' science entangle with the 'letting-go' of models beyond calculus. We conclude that the 'virtual precision' of models affords them fluid evidence-making potential. We imagine a different mode of modelling science in health, one more attuned to treating projections as qualculative, affective and relational, as excitable matter.

Hepatitis C Virus in Children: Trying to Overcome the Domestic and Global Challenges of Cases and Cost

Over the last decade, Hepatitis C virus has persisted and evolved as a domestic and global health challenge for adults and children. The challenges involve both increased cases in the United States and cost of treatment both in the US and globally.

Hepatitis C treatment strategies in prisons: A cost-effectiveness analysis

In Australian prisons approximately 20% of inmates are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), providing an important population for targeted treatment and prevention. A dynamic mathematical model of HCV transmission was used to assess the impact of increasing direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake on HCV incidence and prevalence in the prisons in New South Wales, Australia, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternate treatment strategies. We developed four separate models reflecting different average prison lengths of stay (LOS) of 2, 6, 24, and 36 months. Each model considered four DAA treatment coverage scenarios of 10% (status-quo), 25%, 50%, and 90% over 2016–2045. For each model and scenario, we estimated the lifetime burden of disease, costs and changes in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in prison and in the community during 2016–2075. Costs and QALYs were discounted 3.5% annually and adjusted to 2015 Australian dollars. Compared to treating 10% of infected prisoners, increasing DAA coverage to 25%, 50%, and 90% reduced HCV incidence in prisons by 9–33% (2-months LOS), 26–65% (6-months LOS), 37–70% (24-months LOS), and 35–65% (36-months LOS). DAA treatment was highly cost-effective among all LOS models at conservative willingness-to-pay thresholds. DAA therapy became increasingly cost-effective with increasing coverage. Compared to 10% treatment coverage, the incremental cost per QALY ranged from $497-$569 (2-months LOS), -$280–$323 (6-months LOS), -$432–$426 (24-months LOS), and -$245–$477 (36-months LOS). Treating more than 25% of HCV-infected prisoners with DAA therapy is highly cost-effective. This study shows that treating HCV-infected prisoners is highly cost-effective and should be a government priority for the global HCV elimination effort.

High hepatitis C treatment uptake among people with recent drug dependence in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

High HCV treatment uptake among people at most risk of transmission is essential to achieve elimination. We aimed to characterise subpopulations of people with HCV based on drug dependence, to estimate direct-acting antiviral (DAA) uptake in an unrestricted treatment era, and to evaluate factors associated with treatment uptake among people with recent drug dependence.

METHODS

HCV notifications in New South Wales, Australia (1995-2017) were linked to opioid agonist therapy (OAT), hospitalisations, incarcerations, HIV notifications, deaths, and prescription databases. Drug dependence was defined as hospitalisation due to injectable drugs or receipt of OAT, with indicators in 2016-2018 considered recent. Records were weighted to account for spontaneous clearance. Logistic regression was used to analyse factors associated with treatment uptake among those with recent drug dependence.

RESULTS

57,467 people were estimated to have chronic HCV throughout the DAA era. Treatment uptake was highest among those with recent (47%), compared to those with distant (38%), and no (33%) drug dependence. Among those with recent drug dependence, treatment was more likely among those with HIV (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.71; 95% CI 1.24-2.36), recent incarceration (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.19), and history of alcohol use disorder (aOR 1.22; 95% CI 1.13-1.31). Treatment was less likely among women (aOR 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.84), patients of Indigenous ethnicity (aOR 0.75; 95% CI 0.69-0.81), foreign-born individuals (aOR 0.86; 95% CI 0.78-0.96), those with outer-metropolitan notifications (aOR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.98), HBV coinfection (aOR 0.69; 95% CI 0.59-0.80), and >1 recent hospitalisation (aOR: 0.91; 95% CI 0.84-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide evidence of high DAA uptake among people with recent drug dependence, including those who are incarcerated. Enhancing this encouraging initial uptake among high-risk populations will be essential to achieve HCV elimination.

LAY SUMMARY

To facilitate HCV elimination, those at highest risk of infection and transmission are a treatment priority. This study shows the successes of Australia's universal provision of DAA therapy in reducing the barriers to treatment which have historically persisted among people who inject drugs. Despite higher DAA therapy uptake among those with recent drug dependence, gaps remain. Strategies which aim to reduce marginalisation and increase treatment uptake to ensure equitable HCV elimination must be advanced.

Screening Emergency Admissions at Risk of Chronic Hepatitis C (SEARCH) to diagnose or 're-diagnose' infections is effective in Australia

The World Health Organization has set ambitious viral hepatitis elimination targets; however, difficulties in identifying and engaging patients remain. The emergency visit is an opportunity for enhanced linkage to care (LTC). We assessed the effectiveness of an automated Emergency Department (ED) screening service in identifying patients with hepatitis C (HCV) and achieving LTC. A retrospective evaluation was undertaken, analysing the first 5000 patients screened through an automatic Australian service termed 'Screening Emergency Admissions at Risk of Chronic Hepatitis' (SEARCH). Screening was performed for those recommended in the Australian national testing policy, specifically overseas born (OB) and Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI). Healthcare worker education, patient information materials and opt-out informed consent were used to test sera already collected for biochemistry assays. 5000 of 5801 (86.2%) consecutive eligible patients were screened (OB: 4778, ATSI: 222) from 14 093 ED presentations. HCV antibody was positive in 181 patients (3.6%); 51 (1.0%) were HCV RNA positive. Of 51 HCV RNA-positive patients, 12 were new diagnoses, 32 were 're-diagnoses' (aware but lost to follow-up [LTFU]), and 7 were previously known but treatment contraindicated. LTC was successful in 38 viraemic patients (7 deceased, 4 LTFU, 1 treatment ineligible and 1 declined). Of RNA-negative patients, 75 were previously treated and 49 had presumed spontaneous clearance. Opt-out consent was acceptable to all patients and staff involved. ED screening can lead to additional diagnosing and 're-diagnosing' of HCV, with high rates of LTC. Opt-out consent and automation removed major obstacles to testing.

Evaluation of the Cherokee Nation Hepatitis C Virus Elimination Program in the First 22 Months of Implementation

Importance

In 2019, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection contributed to more deaths in the US than 60 other notifiable infectious diseases combined. The incidence of and mortality associated with HCV infection are highest among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals.

Objective

To evaluate the association of the Cherokee Nation (CN) HCV elimination program with each element of the cascade of care: HCV screening, linkage to care, treatment, and cure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the CN Health Services (CNHS), which serves approximately 132 000 American Indian and Alaska Native individuals residing in the 14-county CN reservation in rural northeastern Oklahoma. Data from the first 22 months of implementation (November 1, 2015, to August 31, 2017) of an HCV elimination program were compared with those from the pre-elimination program period (October 1, 2012, to October 31, 2015). The analysis included American Indian and Alaska Native individuals aged 20 to 69 years who accessed care through the CNHS between October 1, 2012, and August 31, 2017. Cure data were recorded through April 15, 2018.

Exposure

The CN HCV elimination program.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were the proportions of the population screened for HCV, diagnosed with current HCV infection, linked to care, treated, and cured during the initial 22 months of the elimination program period and the pre-elimination program period. Data from electronic health records and an HCV treatment database were analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCV infection in this population was estimated using bayesian analyses.

Results

Among the 74 039 eligible individuals accessing care during the elimination program period, the mean (SD) age was 36.0 (13.5) years and 55.9% were women. From the pre-elimination program period to the elimination program period, first-time HCV screening coverage increased from 20.9% to 38.2%, and identification of current HCV infection and treatment in newly screened individuals increased from a mean (SD) of 170 (40) per year to 244 (4) per year and a mean of 95 (133) per year to 215 (9) per year, respectively. During the implementation period, of the 793 individuals with current HCV infection accessing the CNHS, 664 were evaluated (83.7%), 394 (59.3%) initiated treatment, and 335 (85.0%) had documented cure. In less than 2 years, the 85% 3-year goal was reached for cure (85.0%), and the goal for linkage to care was nearly reached (83.7%), whereas screening (44.1%) and treatment initiation (59.3%) required more time and resources.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that after 22 months of implementation, the CNHS community-based HCV elimination program was associated with an improved cascade of care. The facilitators and lessons learned in this program may be useful to other organizations planning similar programs.

Prevalence of Hepatitis C and treatment uptake in regional Victoria

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in regional Victoria and assess amenability to treatment.

METHODS

Households were randomly selected and one adult from each was invited to a 'clinic', which included HCV, liver function and liver stiffness/fibrosis tests. Participants reactive to HCV were asked about their amenability to treatment.

RESULTS

The study identified eight cases of HCV (antibody and PCR reactive, 1.1%) among 748 participants, half of which were new diagnoses. Most of the HCV-reactive participants were male (89%). Liver function and fibrosis were not significantly different between HCV-reactive and non-reactive participants. Most participants notified of their HCV were amenable to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of HCV in this regional Victorian study (1.1%) was similar to the Australian modelled prevalence estimates. Most participants were amenable to treatment. Implications for public health: The unique opportunity to eliminate HCV requires a reorientation of the public health response toward systematic implementation of treatment to address barriers and reduce stigma and discrimination for marginalised populations. This should include targeting regional areas where the HCV prevalence of undiagnosed cases may be higher than metropolitan areas.

Chronic hepatitis B in remote, tropical Australia; successes and challenges

Introduction

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians living in remote locations suffer disproportionately from chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Defining the temporospatial epidemiology of the disease—and assessing the ability of local clinicians to deliver optimal care—is crucial to improving patient outcomes in these settings.

Methods

The demographic, laboratory and radiology findings in all patients diagnosed with CHB after 1990, and presently residing in remote Far North Queensland (FNQ), tropical Australia, were correlated with their management and clinical course.

Results

Of the 602 patients, 514 (85%) identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 417 (69%) of whom had Torres Strait Islander heritage. Among the 514 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, there were only 61 (12%) born after universal postnatal vaccination was introduced in 1985. Community CHB prevalence varied significantly across the region from 7/1707 (0.4%) in western Cape York to 55/806 (6.8%) in the Eastern Torres Strait Islands. Although 240/602 (40%) are engaged in care, with 65 (27%) meeting criteria for antiviral therapy, only 43 (66%) were receiving this treatment. Among 537 with complete data, 32 (6%) were cirrhotic, of whom 15 (47%) were engaged in care and 10 (33%) were receiving antiviral therapy. Only 64/251 (26%) in whom national guidelines would recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance are receiving screening, however, only 20 patients have been diagnosed with HCC since 1999.

Conclusion

Vaccination has had a dramatic effect on CHB prevalence in FNQ in only a generation. However, although engagement in care is the highest in Australia, this is not translating into initiation of antiviral therapy in all those that should be receiving it, increasing their risk of developing cirrhosis and HCC. New strategies are necessary to improve the care of Indigenous Australians living with CHB to reduce the morbidity and mortality of this preventable disease.

Syndemic profiles of people living with hepatitis C virus using population-level latent class analysis to optimize health services

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) affects diverse populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID), 'baby boomers,' gay/bisexual men who have sex with men (gbMSM), and people from HCV endemic regions. Assessing HCV syndemics (i.e.relationships with mental health/chronic diseases) among subpopulations using Latent Class Analysis (LCA) may facilitate targeted program planning.

METHODS

The BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort(BC-HTC) includes all HCV cases identified in BC between 1990 and 2015, integrated with medical administrative data. LCA grouped all BC-HTC HCV diagnosed people(n = 73,665) by socio-demographic/clinical indicators previously determined to be relevant for HCV outcomes. The final model was chosen based on fit statistics, epidemiological meaningfulness, and posterior probability. Classes were named by most defining characteristics.

RESULTS

The six-class model was the best fit and had the following names and characteristics: 'Younger PWID'(n =11,563): recent IDU (67%), people born >1974 (48%), mental illness (62%), material deprivation (59%). 'Older PWID'(n =15,266): past IDU (78%), HIV (17%), HBV (17%) coinfections, alcohol misuse(68%). 'Other Middle-Aged People'(n = 9019): gbMSM (26%), material privilege (31%), people born between 1965-1974 (47%). 'People of Asian backgrounds' (n = 4718): East/South Asians (92%), no alcohol misuse (97%) or mental illness (93%), people born <1945 (26%), social privilege (66%). 'Rural baby boomers' (n = 20,401): rural dwellers (32%), baby boomers (79%), heterosexuals (99%), no HIV (100%). 'Urban socially deprived baby boomers' (n = 12,698): urban dwellers (99%), no IDU (100%), liver disease (22%), social deprivation (94%).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences between classes suggest variability in patients' service needs. Further analysis of health service utilization patterns may inform optimal service layout.

Measuring hepatitis C virus elimination as a public health threat: Beyond global targets

An increasing number of countries are committing to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) targets to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. These include service coverage targets (90% diagnosed and 80% of diagnosed patients treated) and impact targets (80% and 65% reductions in incidence and mortality, respectively, compared to 2015 levels). Currently, a dozen countries are on track to reach 2030 WHO HCV targets. However, while striving for the WHO targets is important, it should be recognized that progress on impact targets is derived from mathematical models projecting decreases in incidence and mortality on a global scale. Despite HCV treatment access in many counties for a number of years, limited empirical data are available to evaluate progress towards elimination. In some countries, substantial incidence and mortality reductions based on reaching the WHO service coverage targets may be unachievable. For example, in countries with ageing hepatitis C-infected populations, even if they have a quality hepatitis C response, high hepatitis C-related morbidity at baseline may not be reversible even with increased HCV treatment uptake and diagnosis. Finally, WHO targets are not necessarily easily or reliably measurable. Measuring relative impact targets requires high-quality data at baseline (ie 2015) and longitudinal data to assess temporal trends. In this commentary, we propose alternative additional measures to track progress on reducing the HCV burden, offer examples where the WHO targets may not be informative or achievable, and potential practical solutions.

Frequent loss to follow-up after diagnosis of hepatitis C virus infection: A barrier towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on hepatitis C cascade of care have been mainly focused on diagnosis and treatment rate, while less attention has been given to patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) after diagnosis. Analyses of this latter issue on population level are missing.

AIMS

In this nationwide study of people with HCV, we aimed to estimate the proportion LTFU after HCV diagnosis, characterize them, and analyze their other healthcare contacts.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with chronic HCV in the Swedish National Patient Register during 2001-2011 and still alive December 31, 2013, were included. The number of cured patients without need of follow-up was estimated. Visits to HCV specialist care during 2012-2013 were analysed. For those LTFU, other specialist care contacts were studied.

RESULTS

In total 29 217 patients were included, with 24 733 with need of HCV care. 61% (n = 15 007) of them were LTFU from HCV care in 2012-2013 and 58% did not attend HCV care during the second year after HCV diagnosis. The departments of surgery/orthopaedic or psychiatry/dependency were the most common other non-primary healthcare contacts. Predictors for LTFU were young age, male sex, low education, presence of psychiatric/dependency diagnosis, unmarried and longer duration since diagnosis of HCV.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that almost two-thirds of patients were LTFU after HCV diagnosis, with frequent occurrence early after diagnosis. Efforts to link patients back to HCV care, in combination with early and easy access to HCV treatment and harm reduction, are necessary to reach the HCV elimination goal.

Point-of-care hepatitis C screening with direct access referral to improve linkage of care among people with substance misuse: a pilot randomised study

INTRODUCTION

Linkage to care among people with substance misuse remains a barrier to the elimination of the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aimed to determine if point-of-care (PoC) education, screening and staging for liver disease with direct access to hospitals would improve linkage to care among this group.

METHODS

All participants were offered PoC education and HCV screening. HCV-positive participants were randomised to standard care (controls) or direct access, which provided a direct pathway to hospitals. Linkage to care was determined by reviewing electronic medical records. Linkage of care cascade was defined as attendance at the specialist clinic, confirmation of viraemia by HCV RNA testing, discussion about HCV treatment and initiation of treatment.

RESULTS

351 halfway house residents were screened. The overall HCV prevalence was 30.5% (n = 107), with 69 residents in the control group and 38 in the direct access group. The direct access group had a significantly higher percentage of cases linked to specialist review for confirmatory RNA testing (63.2% vs. 40.6%, p = 0.025), HCV treatment discussion (p = 0.009) and treatment initiation (p = 0.01) compared to the controls. Overall, only 12.6% (n = 13) had treatment initiation during follow-up. PoC HCV screening with direct access referral had significantly higher linkage to HCV treatment initiation (adjusted odds ratio 9.13, p = 0.005) in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

PoC HCV screening with direct access improves linkage to care and simplifies the HCV care cascade, leading to improved treatment uptake. PoC education, screening, diagnosis and treatment may be an effective strategy to achieving HCV micro-elimination in this population.

Estimating the Consensus hepatitis C Cascade of Care among people who inject drugs in Australia: Pre and post availability of direct acting antiviral therapy

Background Monitoring the hepatitis C virus (HCV) cascade of care (CoC) among people who inject drugs (PWID) is an essential component of the response to World Health Organisation's (WHO) hepatitis elimination goals. This study aimed to estimate the Consensus hepatitis C CoC among PWID using data collected in Australia prior to and after the introduction of unrestricted direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy in March 2016. Methods The Australian Needle Syringe Program Survey is a cross-sectional bio-behavioural surveillance system that recruits >2000 PWID annually. Using data from 2015 and 2019, HCV antibody and ribonucleic acid (RNA) test results from dried blood spots were combined with self-reported data on HCV diagnostic testing and treatment to project HCV Consensus CoC indicators at a population-level among Australian PWID. Results Among an estimated 75,000 people who inject drugs on a regular basis in Australia, the number with active HCV infection declined from 32,619 (44%) in October 2015 to 12,679 (17%) in October 2019. The majority (78% in 2015 and 2019) of PWID reported HCV diagnosis, while the proportion of those diagnosed who were treated increased from 3% in 2015 to 47% in 2019. Among those treated, the proportion who were HCV RNA negative and assumed to have been successfully treated (cured), increased from 27% in 2015 to 88% in 2019. Conclusion This study demonstrates remarkable HCV CoC progress among PWID in Australia following availability of DAA therapy. There was a substantial increase in the proportion of HCV diagnosed PWID who initiated treatment and were cured, while the number of PWID with active HCV infection more than halved over a 3.5 year period. Estimates of the Consensus hepatitis C CoC among PWID is required to monitor progress toward WHO HCV elimination goals.

Pre-treatment antiviral resistance in Australians with chronic hepatitis C: prevalence of NS3 and NS5A resistance data in the state of New South Wales

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have revolutionized HCV treatment, but the impact of antiviral resistance at a population level is still not clear. The majority of patients who fail DAA therapy develop resistance-associated substitutions (RASs), which can impact re-treatment. There is potential for resistance prevalence to rise in the community with treatment scale up, due to transmission of resistant virus. Monitoring for increasing antiviral resistance requires a reliable baseline, yet there are few published data on the prevalence of HCV resistance in Australia. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of RASs among untreated Australians with HCV genotype-1a infection, to inform ongoing surveillance.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed at a single large university hospital pathology laboratory in Australia. Archived blood samples referred for HCV genotype testing were analysed. All patients were naive to DAAs. The prevalence of RASs in the HCV NS3 and NS5A regions was determined using Sanger based population sequencing.

RESULTS

Of 379 samples tested, 34% contained DAA-resistant virus: 24% had resistance to NS3 protease inhibitors, 12% had NS5A inhibitor resistance and 4% of patients had resistance to both drug classes. Clinically relevant RASs conferring resistance against NS5A inhibitors ledipasvir, daclatasvir and elbasvir were detected in 5.8% of samples.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the largest study of HCV antiviral drug resistance in Australia, which differs from resistance prevalence in the USA. The results provide valuable data on the baseline prevalence of HCV resistance, which can be used in the future to monitor for increasing antiviral resistance.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of an outreach model of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) assessment to facilitate HCV treatment in primary care

The effects of hepatitis C virus (HCV), such as morbidity and mortality associated with cirrhosis and liver cancer, is a major public health issue in Australia. Highly effective treatment has recently been made available to all Australians living with HCV. A decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the hepatology partnership, compared to usual care. A Markov model was chosen, as it is state-based and able to include recursive events, which accurately reflects the natural history of the chronic and repetitive nature of HCV. Cost-effectiveness of the new model of care is indicated by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), where the mean change to costs associated with the new model of care is divided by the mean change in quality adjusted life-years (QALYs). Ten thousand iterations of the model were run, with the majority (73%) of ICERs representing cost-savings. In comparison to usual care, the intervention improves health outcomes (22.38 QALYs gained) and reduces costs by $42,122 per patient. When compared to usual care, a partnership approach to management of HCV is cost-effective and good value for money, even when key model parameters are changed in scenario analyses. Reduction in costs is driven by improved efficiency of the new model of care, where more patients are treated in a timely manner, away from the expensive tertiary setting. From an economic perspective, a reduction in hospital-based care is a positive outcome and represents a good investment for decision-makers who wish to maximise health gain per dollar spent.

Progress Toward Hepatitis C Virus Elimination: Therapy and Implementation

The World Health Organization has called for the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. Highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents provide the therapeutic tools required for elimination. In the absence of a vaccine, HCV elimination will require enhanced primary prevention and an increase in the proportions of people diagnosed and treated. Given that globally only 20% of people with chronic HCV are diagnosed, and around 5% have initiated HCV treatment, the task ahead is enormous. But, global public health needs optimism, and countries currently on track for HCV elimination provide a pathway forward.

Hepatitis C cascade of care at an integrated community facility for people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVE

To examine the hepatitis C virus (HCV) cascade of care at a community-based integrated harm reduction and treatment facility for people who inject drugs (PWID).

METHODS

Queensland Injectors' Health Network is a community-based agency providing integrated harm reduction and treatment services, including HCV treatment. Program data were analyzed from program commencement (early 2015) up to December 2017.

RESULTS

By December 2017, 476 participants with confirmed HCV infection had enrolled in treatment, of whom 72% had commenced treatment, 65% had completed treatment, and 44% had a confirmed sustained virologic response at 12-weeks post-treatment. Participants who commenced treatment tended to be older (ref 18-34 years; 35-49 years OR = 1.84, p = 0.037, 50+ years OR = 3.19, p = 0.002) and to feel safe and stable in their housing (OR = 2.36, p = 0.021). Participants who completed treatment were less likely to report legal issues (OR = 0.23, p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated community-based services can successfully engage PWID throughout the HCV treatment journey. Additional social support, including linkage with housing and legal navigation services, may improve treatment uptake and completion. Point-of-care testing, including same-day scripting, could improve treatment uptake.

Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Combined treatment and prevention strategies for hepatitis C virus elimination in the prisons in New South Wales: a modelling study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Australia is currently on track to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) global hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination goals by 2030, reflecting universal subsidized access to testing and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. In New South Wales, DAA treatment in prisons has scaled-up substantially, with 1000 prisoners treated in 2017. However, HCV prevalence and incidence in this setting is high, which could undermine elimination efforts. This study aimed to test the preventative effects of DAA treatment scale-up, opiate substitution treatment (OST) and needle and syringe programme (NSP) strategies for prisons.

DESIGN

Modelling study using an individual-based mathematical model of a typical prison setting. The model was calibrated against Australian epidemiological data sets and executed in-prison events for each individual daily, including movements between prisons, changes in risk behaviour and uptake of prevention measures such as OST and NSP, as well as DAA treatment. Scenarios were projected from 2018 to 2030.

SETTING

New South Wales prisons.

PARTICIPANTS

New South Wales prisoners.

MEASUREMENTS

Variables including prison populations, prevalence and incidence rate were calculated. Prisoners were described by demographic characteristics, HCV infection history, risk behaviours and accessing treatment and prevention measures in varied security settings.

FINDINGS

Increasing the number of prisoners treated for HCV to 2000 annually was projected to reduce the HCV incidence rate to 8.69 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.17, 9.20] per 100 person-years (100 p.y.). Combined treatment and prevention strategies were necessary to reduce the projected incidence rate to 5.22 (95% CI = 5.13, 5.52) per 100 p.y. Considering the expected reductions in the prevalence of chronic HCV in the Australian community, incidence rate was predicted to drop to 0.93 (95% CI = 0.92, 0.98) per 100 p.y. by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

This model, which simulates prison scenarios to inform Australia's national hepatitis C virus elimination efforts, suggests that continued direct-acting antiviral (coverage in the community combined with a moderate increase of direct-acting antiviral treatments in prisons, and introduction of improved harm reduction via opiate substitution treatment and/or needle and syringe programmes, makes hepatitis C virus elimination feasible in Australian prisons.

How to think with models and targets: Hepatitis C elimination as a numbering performance

The field of public health is replete with mathematical models and numerical targets. In the case of disease eliminations, modelled projections and targets play a key role in evidencing elimination futures and in shaping actions in relation to these. Drawing on ideas within science and technology studies, we take hepatitis C elimination as a case for reflecting on how to think with mathematical models and numerical targets as 'performative actors' in evidence-making. We focus specifically on the emergence of 'treatment-as-prevention' as a means to trace the social and material effects that models and targets make, including beyond science. We also focus on how enumerations are made locally in their methods and events of production. We trace the work that models and targets do in relation to three analytical themes: governing; affecting; and enacting. This allows us to situate models and targets as technologies of governance in the constitution of health, which affect and are affected by their material relations, including in relation to matters-of-concern which extend beyond calculus. By emphasising models and targets as enactments, we draw attention to how these devices give life to new enumerated entities, which detach from their calculative origins and take flight in new ways. We make this analysis for two reasons: first, as a call to bring the social and enumeration sciences closer together to speculate on how we might think with models and targets differently and more carefully; and second, to encourage an approach to science which treats evidencing-making interventions, such as models and targets, as performative and political.

Australia needs to increase testing to achieve hepatitis C elimination

Objectives

To assess progress in Australia toward the 2030 WHO hepatitis C elimination targets two years after the introduction of highly effective direct‐acting antiviral (DAA) treatments.

Design

Analysis of quarterly data on government‐subsidised hepatitis C RNA testing and hepatitis C treatment in Australia, January 2013 – June 2018. Changes in testing and treatment levels associated with DAA availability were assessed in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model, and the impact by 2030 of different levels of testing and treatment were estimated using a mathematical model.

Major outcome measures

Hepatitis C prevalence among people who inject drugs; annual hepatitis C incidence relative to 2015 levels; projections for the hepatitis C care cascade in 2030.

Results

The mean annual number of treatments initiated for people with hepatitis C increased from 6747 during 2013–2015 (before the introduction of DAAs) to 28 022 during 2016–18; the mean annual number of diagnostic RNA tests increased from 17 385 to 23 819. If current trends in testing and treatment continue (ie, 2018 testing numbers are maintained but treatment numbers decline by 50%), it is projected that by 2030 only 72% of infected people would be treated (by 2025 all people diagnosed with hepatitis C would be treated). The incidence of hepatitis C in 2030 would be 59% lower than in 2015, well short of the WHO target of an 80% reduction. The identification and testing of people exposed to hepatitis C must be increased by at least 50% for Australia to reach the WHO elimination targets.

Conclusion

Hepatitis C elimination programs in Australia should focus on increasing testing rates and linkage with care to maintain adequate levels of treatment.

Liver diseases in the Asia-Pacific region: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission

The Asia-Pacific region is home to more than half of the global population and accounted for 62·6% of global deaths due to liver diseases in 2015. 54·3% of global deaths due to cirrhosis, 72·7% of global deaths due to hepatocellular carcinoma, and more than two-thirds of the global burden of acute viral hepatitis occurred in this region in 2015. Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection caused more than half of the deaths due to cirrhosis in the region, followed by alcohol consumption (20·8%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; 12·1%), and chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV; 15·7%). In 2015, HBV accounted for about half the cases of hepatocellular carcinoma in the region. Preventive strategies for viral hepatitis-related liver disease include increasing access to clean drinking water and sanitation. HBV vaccination programmes for neonates have been implemented by all countries, although birth-dose coverage is extremely suboptimal in some. Availability of screening tests for blood and tissue, donor recall policies, and harm reduction strategies are in their initial stages in most countries. Many governments have put HBV and HCV drugs on their essential medicines lists and the availability of generic versions of these drugs has reduced costs. Efforts to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat, together with the rapid increase in per-capita alcohol consumption in countries and the epidemic of obesity, are expected to change the spectrum of liver diseases in the Asia-Pacific region in the near future. The increasing burden of alcohol-related liver diseases can be contained through government policies to limit consumption and promote less harmful patterns of alcohol use, which are in place in some countries but need to be enforced more strictly. Steps are needed to control obesity and NAFLD, including policies to promote healthy lifestyles and regulate the food industry. Inadequate infrastructure and insufficient health-care personnel trained in liver diseases are issues that also need to be addressed in the Asia-Pacific region. The policy response of most governments to liver diseases has thus far been inadequate and poorly funded. There must be a renewed focus on prevention, early detection, timely referral, and research into the best means to introduce and improve health interventions to reduce the burden of liver diseases in the Asia-Pacific region.

Estimated uptake of hepatitis C direct-acting antiviral treatment among individuals with HIV co-infection in Australia: a retrospective cohort study

Background Unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been available in Australia since March 2016. Individuals with HIV–HCV co-infection are at a greater risk of liver fibrosis progression. This study estimated DAA treatment uptake among individuals with HIV–HCV co-infection, during the first year of DAA treatment access in Australia. Methods: Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) data on dispensed DAA and antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescriptions from March 2016 to March 2017 were used for analysis. Results: During March 2016 to March 2017, a total of 935 individuals with HIV–HCV co-infection were receiving ART and initiated DAA treatment, with 93% to 97% completing their prescribed course. Estimated DAA treatment uptake in the HIV–HCV-infected population was 41% (935/2290). Most were men (94%). Median age was 50 years. DAA treatment was initiated by specialists in 64% of cases (n = 602), and by general practitioners (GPs) in 25% of cases (n = 238). The proportion of individuals initiated on DAA by GPs increased from 20% in March–April 2016 to 26% in January–March 2017. Most specialists (77%) and GPs (72%) initiated DAA treatment for one to three patients. Among individuals initiated on DAA by GPs, 68% received their ART prescription from the same GP. Conclusions: A high level of DAA treatment uptake and completion was observed among individuals with HIV–HCV co-infection during the first year of DAA treatment access. The proportion of individuals prescribed DAA by GPs increased over time; this is important for broadened access.

Declining hepatitis C virus-related liver disease burden in the direct-acting antiviral therapy era in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Population-level evidence for the impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy on hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related disease burden is lacking. We aimed to evaluate trends in HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hospitalisation, and liver-related and all-cause mortality in the pre-DAA (2001-2014) and DAA therapy (2015-2017) eras in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

HCV notifications (1993-2016) were linked to hospital admissions (2001-2017) and mortality (1995-2017). Segmented Poisson regressions and Poisson regression were used to assess the impact of DAA era and factors associated with liver-related mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Among 99,910 people with an HCV notification, 3.8% had a decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis and 1.8% had an HCC diagnosis, while 3.3% and 10.5% died of liver-related and all-cause mortality, respectively. In the pre-DAA era, the number of decompensated cirrhosis and HCC diagnoses, and liver-related and all-cause mortality consistently increased (incidence rate ratios 1.04 [95% CI 1.04-1.05], 1.08 [95% CI 1.07-1.08], 1.07 [95% CI 1.06-1.07], and 1.05 [95% CI 1.04-1.05], respectively) over each 6-monthly band. In the DAA era, decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis and liver-related mortality numbers declined (incidence rate ratios 0.97 [95% CI 0.95-0.99] and 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.98], respectively), and HCC diagnosis and all-cause mortality numbers plateaued (incidence rate ratio 1.00 [95% CI 0.97-1.03] and 1.01 [95% CI 1.00-1.02], respectively) over each 6-monthly band. In the DAA era, alcohol-use disorder (AUD) was common in patients diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis and HCC (65% and 46% had a history of AUD, respectively). AUD was independently associated with liver-related mortality (incidence rate ratio 3.35; 95% CI 3.14-3.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the DAA era, there has been a sharp decline in liver disease morbidity and mortality in New South Wales, Australia. AUD remains a major contributor to HCV-related liver disease burden, highlighting the need to address comorbidities.

LAY SUMMARY

Rising hepatitis C-related morbidity and mortality is a major public health issue. However, development of highly effective medicines against hepatitis C (called direct-acting antivirals or DAAs) means hepatitis C could be eliminated as a public health threat by 2030. This study shows a sharp decline in liver disease morbidity and mortality since the introduction of DAAs in New South Wales, Australia. Despite this, heavy alcohol use remains an important risk factor for liver disease among people with hepatitis C. To ensure that the benefits of new antiviral treatments are not compromised, management of major comorbidities, including heavy alcohol use must improve among people with hepatitis C.