What drives the dynamics of HBV RNA during treatment?

Multiscale modeling of HBV infection integrating intra- and intercellular viral propagation to analyze extracellular viral markers

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. Thus, quantifying and understanding the dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, such study requires repeated liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because liver biopsy is potentially morbid and not common during hepatitis B treatment. We here aimed to develop a noninvasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations, integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we roughly predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA within a certain range using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The noninvasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed method holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

Classifying hepatitis B therapies with insights from covalently closed circular DNA dynamics

The achievement of a functional cure for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains limited to a minority of patients treated with currently approved drugs. The primary objective in developing new anti-HBV drugs is to enhance the functional cure rates for CHB. A critical prerequisite for the functional cure of CHB is a substantial reduction, or even eradication of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). Within this context, the changes in cccDNA levels during treatment become as a pivotal concern. We have previously analyzed the factors influencing cccDNA dynamics and introduced a preliminary classification of hepatitis B treatment strategies based on these dynamics. In this review, we employ a systems thinking perspective to elucidate the fundamental aspects of the HBV replication cycle and to rationalize the classification of treatment strategies according to their impact on the dynamic equilibrium of cccDNA. Building upon this foundation, we categorize current anti-HBV strategies into two distinct groups and advocate for their combined use to significantly reduce cccDNA levels within a well-defined timeframe.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 760 million cases and 6.9 million deaths worldwide. To mitigate the loss of lives, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with susceptible variants. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response anti-viral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

Multiscale modeling of HBV infection integrating intra- and intercellular viral propagation for analyzing extracellular viral markers

Chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. The quantifying and understanding dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, it requires a liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because of the ethical aspect. We here aimed to develop a non-invasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers present in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations (PDEs), integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we successfully predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The non-invasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed methodology holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

The progress of molecules and strategies for the treatment of HBV infection

Hepatitis B virus infections have always been associated with high levels of mortality. In 2019, hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related diseases resulted in approximately 555,000 deaths globally. In view of its high lethality, the treatment of HBV infections has always presented a huge challenge. The World Health Organization (WHO) came up with ambitious targets for the elimination of hepatitis B as a major public health threat by 2030. To accomplish this goal, one of the WHO’s strategies is to develop curative treatments for HBV infections. Current treatments in a clinical setting included 1 year of pegylated interferon alpha (PEG-IFNα) and long-term nucleoside analogues (NAs). Although both treatments have demonstrated outstanding antiviral effects, it has been difficult to develop a cure for HBV. The reason for this is that covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA), integrated HBV DNA, the high viral burden, and the impaired host immune responses all hinder the development of a cure for HBV. To overcome these problems, there are clinical trials on a number of antiviral molecules being carried out, all -showing promising results so far. In this review, we summarize the functions and mechanisms of action of various synthetic molecules, natural products, traditional Chinese herbal medicines, as clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats and their associated proteins (CRISPR/Cas)-based systems, zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs), and transcription activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), all of which could destroy the stability of the HBV life cycle. In addition, we discuss the functions of immune modulators, which can enhance or activate the host immune system, as well some representative natural products with anti-HBV effects.

Overview of the development of HBV small molecule inhibitors

Like tuberculosis and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), hepatitis B is a globally recognized major public health threat. Although there are many small-molecule drugs for the treatment of hepatitis B, the approved drugs cannot eradicate the pathogenic culprit covalently closed circular DNA in patients, so the patients need long-term medication to control HBV amplification. Driven by a high unmet medical need, many pharmaceutical companies and research institutions have been engaged in the development of anti-HBV drugs to achieve a functional cure for chronic hepatitis B as soon as possible. This review summarizes the pathogenesis of hepatitis B virus and the research progress in the development of anti-HBV small molecule drugs, and introduces the cccDNA formation and transcription inhibitors and core inhibitors in detail, especially emphasizes the role of chinese herbal medicine in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. Furthermore, this review proposes three potential strategies for cccDNA eradication in the future. We believe this review will provide meaningful guidance to achieve a functional cure for viral hepatitis B in the future.

A Semi-mechanistic Model to Characterize the Long-Term Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Markers During Treatment With Lamivudine and Pegylated Interferon

Antiviral treatments against hepatitis B virus (HBV) suppress viral replication but do not eradicate the virus, and need therefore to be taken lifelong to avoid relapse. Mathematical models can be useful to support the development of curative anti-HBV agents; however, they mostly focus on short-term HBV DNA data and neglect the complex host-pathogen interaction. This work aimed to characterize the effect of treatment with lamivudine and/or pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) in 1,300 patients (hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative) treated for 1 year. A mathematical model was developed incorporating two populations of infected cells, namely I 1 , with a high transcriptional activity, that progressively evolve into I 2 , at a rate δ tr , representing cells with integrated HBV DNA that have a lower transcriptional activity. Parameters of the model were estimated in patients treated with lamivudine or Peg-IFN alone (N = 894), and the model was then validated in patients treated with lamivudine plus Peg-IFN (N = 436) to predict the virological response after a year of combination treatment. Lamivudine had a larger effect in blocking viral production than Peg-IFN (99.4-99.9% vs. 91.8-95.1%); however, Peg-IFN had a significant immunomodulatory effect, leading to an enhancement of the loss rates of I 1 (×1.7 in HBeAg-positive patients), I 2 (> ×7 irrespective of HBeAg status), and δ tr (×4.6 and ×2.0 in HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients, respectively). Using this model, we were able to describe the synergy of the different effects occurring during treatment with combination and predicted an effect of 99.99% on blocking viral production. This framework can therefore support the optimization of combination therapy with new anti-HBV agents.

Diversity of the nucleic acid forms of circulating HBV in chronically infected patients and its impact on viral cycle

BACKGROUND

Besides the prototypical hepatitis B virus (HBV) infectious particle, which contains a full-length double-stranded DNA (flDNA), additional circulating virus-like particles, which carry pregenomic RNA (pgRNA), spliced1RNA (sp1RNA) or spliced-derived DNA (defDNA) forms have been described. We aimed to determine the level of these four circulating forms in patients and to evaluate their impact on viral lifecycle.

METHODS

Chronic HBV untreated patients (n = 162), included in the HEPATHER cohort, were investigated. Pangenomic qPCRs were set up to quantify the four circulating forms of HBV nucleic acids (HBV_naf). In vitro infection assays were performed to address the impact of HBV_naf.

RESULTS

Hierarchical clustering individualized two clusters of HBV_naf diversity among patients: (1) cluster 1 (C1) showing a predominance of flDNA; (2) cluster 2 (C2) showing various proportions of the different forms. HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis phase and higher viral load (7.0 ± 6.4 vs 6.6 ± 6.2 Log₁₀ copies/ml; p < 0.001) characterized C2 compared to C1 patients. Among the different HBV_naf, pgRNA was more prevalent in C1 patients with high vs low HBV viral load (22.1% ± 2.5% vs 4.1% ± 1.8% of HBV_naf, p < 0.0001) but remained highly prevalent in C2 patients, whatever the level of replication. C2 patients samples used in infection assays showed that: (1) HBV_naf secretion was independent of the viral strain; (2) the viral cycle efficiency differed according to the proportion of HBV_naf in the inoculum, independently of cccDNA formation. Inoculum enrichment before infection suggests that pgRNA-containing particles drive this impact on viral replication.

CONCLUSION

Besides the critical role of HBV replication in circulating HBV_naf diversity, our data highlight an impact of this diversity on the dynamics of viral cycle.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Patients were included from a prospective multicenter French national cohort (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER, NCT01953458).

HBV pgRNA profiles in Chinese HIV/HBV coinfected patients under pre- and posttreatment: a multicentre observational cohort study

Data on hepatitis B virus (HBV) pregenomic (pgRNA) levels in HIV/HBV coinfected patients pre- and post-combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the distribution of HBV pgRNA levels in treatment-naive coinfected patients and explore the changes that occur after the initiation of cART by examining patients from multicentre cohort studies performed in China. We included HIV/HBV coinfected subjects from the China AIDS Clinical Trial cohorts established from 2008 to 2014. Clinical and serological markers of HIV and HBV infection and biochemical data were acquired at baseline and after 96 and 240-480 weeks of cART. The correlations between HBV pgRNA and HBV DNA levels as well as HBsAg levels were calculated using Spearman's bivariate correlation analysis, and multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine factors associated with undetectable HBV pgRNA levels before cART and HBeAg loss after cART. A total of 132 HIV/HBV coinfected patients were enrolled, and 100 individuals were HBeAg-negative. A total of 34.4% (32/93) of patients were positive for HBV pgRNA, and the median HBV pgRNA level was 4.92 (IQR: 4.21-6.12) log₁₀ copies/mL before cART. The median HBV pgRNA level was significantly lower in HBeAg-negative individuals than in HBeAg-positive individuals (4.22 (IQR: 2.70-4.84) log₁₀ copies/mL vs. 5.77 (IQR: 4.63-6.55) log₁₀ copies/mL, p = 0.002). HBV pgRNA was moderately correlated with HBsAg (r = 0.594, p = 0.001), and positively associated with HBV DNA (r = 0.445, p = 0.011). The factors independently associated with undetectable HBV pgRNA level before cART were HBV DNA (OR: 5.61, 95% CI: 1.50-20.96, p = 0.01) and HBeAg status (OR: 5.95, 95% CI: 1.52-23.25, p = 0.01). A total of 87.5% (28/32) of patients were followed for a median duration of 138 (IQR: 54-240) weeks, and the HBV pgRNA levels became undetectable in seven patients. The 132 patients were observed for 695.5 person-years, and no HBsAg loss occurred. Thirteen individuals achieved HBeAg loss, four patients had undetectable levels of HBV pgRNA pre-cART, and the level of six individuals became undetectable during the 48-week (IQR: 48-264) follow-up period. HBeAg status was significantly associated with HBV pgRNA level in HIV/HBV coinfected patients pre- and post-cART. Additionally, undetectable HBV pgRNA level may be associated with HBeAg loss after cART.

Advances in Parameter Estimation and Learning from Data for Mathematical Models of Hepatitis C Viral Kinetics

Mathematical models, some of which incorporate both intracellular and extracellular hepatitis C viral kinetics, have been advanced in recent years for studying HCV–host dynamics, antivirals mode of action, and their efficacy. The standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetic model keeps track of uninfected cells, infected cells, and free virus. In multiscale models, a fourth partial differential equation (PDE) accounts for the intracellular viral RNA (vRNA) kinetics in an infected cell. The PDE multiscale model is substantially more difficult to solve compared to the standard ODE model, with governing differential equations that are stiff. In previous contributions, we developed and implemented stable and efficient numerical methods for the multiscale model for both the solution of the model equations and parameter estimation. In this contribution, we perform sensitivity analysis on model parameters to gain insight into important properties and to ensure our numerical methods can be safely used for HCV viral dynamic simulations. Furthermore, we generate in-silico patients using the multiscale models to perform machine learning from the data, which enables us to remove HCV measurements on certain days and still be able to estimate meaningful observations with a sufficiently small error.

Understanding Hepatitis B Virus Dynamics and the Antiviral Effect of Interferon Alpha Treatment in Humanized Chimeric Mice

Whereas the mode of action of lamivudine (LAM) against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is well established, the inhibition mechanism(s) of interferon alpha (IFN-α) is less completely defined. To advance our understanding, we mathematically modeled HBV kinetics during 14-day pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN), LAM, or pegIFN-plus-LAM (pegIFN+LAM) treatment of 39 chronically HBV-infected humanized uPA/SCID chimeric mice. Serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA were measured frequently. We developed a multicompartmental mathematical model and simultaneously fit it to the serum and intracellular HBV DNA data. Unexpectedly, even in the absence of an adaptive immune response, a biphasic decline in serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA was observed in response to all treatments. Kinetic analysis and modeling indicate that the first phase represents inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis and secretion, which was similar under all treatments with an overall mean efficacy of 98%. In contrast, there were distinct differences in HBV decline during the second phase, which was accounted for in the model by a time-dependent inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis, with the steepest decline observed during pegIFN+LAM treatment (1.28/day) and the slowest (0.1/day) during pegIFN monotherapy. Reminiscent of observations in patients treated with pegIFN and/or LAM, a biphasic HBV decline was observed in treated humanized mice in the absence of an adaptive immune response. Interestingly, combination treatment did not increase the initial inhibition of HBV production but rather enhanced second-phase decline, providing insight into the dynamics of HBV treatment response and the mode of action of IFN-α against HBV. IMPORTANCE Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global health care problem, as we lack sufficient curative treatment options. Elucidating the dynamics of HBV infection and treatment response at the molecular level could facilitate the development of novel, more effective HBV antivirals. Currently, the only well-established small animal HBV infection model available is the chimeric uPA/SCID mice with humanized livers; however, the HBV inhibition kinetics under pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN) in this model system have not been determined in sufficient detail. In this study, viral kinetics in 39 humanized mice treated with pegIFN and/or lamivudine were monitored and analyzed using a mathematical modeling approach. We found that the main mode of action of IFN-α is blocking HBV DNA synthesis and that the majority of synthesized HBV DNA is secreted. Our study provides novel insights into HBV DNA dynamics within infected human hepatocytes.

Clinical Implications of Serum Hepatitis B Virus Pregenomic RNA Kinetics in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Antiviral Treatment and Those Achieving HBsAg Loss

Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) pregenomic RNA (pgRNA) is correlated with covalently closed circular DNA. We aimed to investigate the utility of serum HBV pgRNA in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and those achieving HBsAg loss. One hundred and eighty-five patients were enrolled for studying long-term HBV pgRNA kinetics during treatment. Twenty patients achieving HBsAg loss after treatment were enrolled for examining HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss. HBV pgRNA significantly decreased in the high baseline HBV pgRNA (≥6 log copies/mL) group but significantly increased in the low baseline HBV pgRNA (<4 log copies/mL) group after 3-month entecavir treatment. Among the 20 patients achieving HBsAg loss, 13 (65%) patients had serum HBV pgRNA higher than the limit of detection (LOD, 1466 copies/mL) when they achieved HBsAg loss. Finally, all 20 patients had HBV pgRNA going below the LOD within 3 years after achieving HBsAg loss. In conclusion, baseline serum HBV pgRNA alone is insufficient for predicting the trajectory of HBV pgRNA. Most patients still had HBV pgRNA higher than the LOD when they achieved HBsAg loss. Further studies on HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss would provide an enhanced basis for further applications of HBV pgRNA.

How Semiphysiological Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling Incorporating Active Hepatic Uptake Supports Phase II Dose Selection of RO7049389, A Novel Anti-Hepatitis B Virus Drug

The pharmacokinetics (PK) of RO7049389, a new hepatitis B virus (HBV) core protein allosteric modulator of class I, and of its active metabolite M5 were studied in fasted and fed conditions after single and multiple once‐a‐day and twice‐a‐day doses in healthy subjects and patients with HBV. The nonlinearity of the pharmacokinetics, the large variability, the small sample size per dose arms, the higher plasma exposure in Asians, and the heterogeneity in patient baseline characteristics seen in phase I studies made the ethnic sensitivity assessment and the selection of the recommended phase II dose difficult. A population PK model, simultaneously modeling RO7049389 and M5, was developed to characterize the complex PK, quantify ethnicity (i.e., Asian vs. non‐Asian) and gender effects on the PK of RO7049389 and M5, and infer the quantity of RO7049389 in liver relative to plasma. Exposures in the liver are of particular importance for dose selection since the liver is the site of action of the compound. The model described and reproduced the population PK profiles as well as the between‐subject variability of RO7049389 and its metabolite. It could show that the PK is similar between healthy subjects and in HBV patients, once the ethnicity and gender effects are accounted for. The model predicts that, despite a large difference in the plasma exposure of RO7049389 between Asians and non‐Asians, the exposure in the liver is comparable, allowing the use of the same dose to treat Asian and non‐Asian patients. This model provides a valuable basis to develop this new anti‐HBV drug and to define optimal dosing.

Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Infectious Diseases and the Effects of Therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical, and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes led to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus and cytomegalovirus, which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, West Nile virus, Zika virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. We then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler," and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.