Prognostic impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in cirrhosis: A propensity score matching analysis with a prespecified cut-point

The Value of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Identify Bacterial Infection and Predict Short-Term Mortality in Patients with Acutely Decompensated Cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis patients are highly susceptible to infections, affecting survival, but current parameters for detecting infection are not reliable enough in this population. We investigated the ability of white blood cell (WBC), ∆WBC, neutrophil and ∆neutrophil counts, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) and ∆NLR ratios and C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels to identify infection and predict short-term mortality in liver cirrhosis patients. We recruited 233 patients with liver cirrhosis hospitalized with acute decompensation (AD) who had an outpatient visit within 1 month (baseline laboratory data) and followed them for 90 days. Difference between laboratory values at baseline and the AD episode was defined as delta (∆) values of the parameters. Delta values did not increase the diagnostic and predictive ability of investigated parameters. The CRP level was found to be the best diagnostic marker for infection in patients with cirrhosis. However, NLR seems to be superior for short-term mortality prediction, better than the WBC count. Distinguishing inflammations of different origin is a remaining clinical challenge in acutely decompensated cirrhosis. Based on our results, NLR might be more suitable for predicting short-term mortality in patients with AD than the WBC count currently included in the CLIF-C AD score.

Serum Ferritin Has Limited Prognostic Value on Mortality Risk in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The prognostic value of serum ferritin remains elusive in the literature. We aimed to examine the association between serum ferritin and mortality risk in cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 257 cirrhotic patients were recruited. The cut-off of serum ferritin was determined by X-tile. The Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier method were used. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to diminish the impacts of selection bias and possible confounders.

RESULTS

The difference regarding mortality was mostly significant for serum ferritin >158 ng/mL. Before PSM, serum ferritin >158 ng/mL was an independent predictor of mortality. However, the clinical relevance of high ferritin level for prognostication was blunted after PSM (survival rate: 86.8% vs 96.3%, P = .078). Cox regression indicated that model for end-stage liver disease remains only independent risk factor of 180-day mortality after PSM.

CONCLUSION

Serum ferritin may not serve as an independent prognostic indicator of mortality risk in decompensated cirrhotic patients.

Malnutrition according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria is associated with in-hospital mortality and prolonged length of stay in patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Malnutrition is prevalent and negatively affects patients with cirrhosis, but a generally accepted consensus pertaining to its diagnosis is lacking. Recently, a framework called the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) has been proposed to diagnose malnutrition, but there is scant evidence regarding its validity. We aimed to investigate associations of malnutrition according to the GLIM criteria, as well as its individual indicator with in-hospital adverse outcomes.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study of consecutively hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. The malnutrition diagnosis was built on a stepwise GLIM process with initial screening, followed by fulfillment of at least one phenotypic and one etiologic criterion. Patients were followed up for a combined endpoint of in-hospital mortality and prolonged length of stay (LOS). Covariates compromise malnutrition according to the GLIM criteria and its indicators in separation. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to determine predictive validity.

RESULTS

A total of 387 cirrhotic patients were assessed. Malnutrition was diagnosed in 28.7% of patients according to the GLIM criteria, and increased the risk of in-hospital mortality and prolonged LOS by 2.166 and 1.767 times, respectively, adjusting for age, sex, biochemical parameters, and clinical scores of disease severity. When analyzing separate criteria, all constituents were independently associated with in-hospital adverse outcomes, adjusting for model for end-stage liver disease sodium score.

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition according to the GLIM criteria was considerably prevalent among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, and associated with approximately two times greater probability of in-hospital mortality and prolonged LOS. These diagnostic criteria may be implemented and disseminated during daily practice considering their predictive validity.

Low Levels of Serum Zinc Associate with Malnutrition Risk Assessed by the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool in Cirrhosis

We have clarified that malnutrition risk evaluated by the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT) is prevalent in patients with cirrhosis. Mineral elements (zinc, iron, magnesium, copper, manganese, and calcium) are micronutrients essential for versatile physiological processes and cellular bioactivities. However, the association between these trace elements and integral nutritional status is unclear in decompensated cirrhotics. We collected blood samples from hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, and serum trace element concentrations were examined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Association of trace element levels with high malnutrition risk was determined by multivariate logistic regression model. Sera from 141 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were analyzed for a total of six trace element concentrations. No significant differences were observed between high and low/moderate RFH-NPT malnutrition risk groups with the exception of zinc. The serum zinc concentrations were significantly decreased in patients at high malnutrition risk when compared to low/moderate subjects (57.9 vs 68.1 μg/dL, P = 0.006). In terms of receiver operating characteristics curve, zinc < 64 μg/dL represented best discriminative capability with an area of 0.635 (95% CI: 0.542, 0.728). Patients in the group with zinc < 64 μg/dL had elevated RFH-NPT and MELD score, higher proportion of Child-Pugh class C and ascites, higher CRP, lower albumin and sodium than in the group with zinc ≥ 64 μg/dL. Zinc < 64 μg/dL was an independent risk factor for high malnutrition risk. Low levels of serum zinc referring to less than 64 μg/dL were associated with poor integral nutritional status in cirrhosis.

Diagnostic role of simple indices in HCV-related liver cirrhosis outcomes: a prospective cross-sectional study

Aim of the study

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), albumin-bilirubin ratio (ABR) and albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI) in different outcomes of liver cirrhosis, including decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). A second objective was to find their cut-off values. Finally, we aimed to correlate these indices with the severity of liver cirrhosis.

Material and methods

The study included 149 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver cirrhosis. They were categorized into 3 groups according to severity of cirrhosis as compensated cirrhosis, decompensated liver cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure based on Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and MELD-Na scores. Patients were categorized according to presence of HCC and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. All patients had a complete blood picture and liver profile. NLR, PLR, ALBI and ABR were calculated.

Results

NLR, PLR, ALBI and ABR correlated with CTP, and MELD-Na scores. NLR > 6.27 can be used to predict SBP in patients with ascites. NLR cut-off value > 3.61 and > 5.26 can be used to predict DLC and ACLF respectively in liver cirrhosis. ABR < 0.90 discriminated ACLF from DLC with OR = 2.93 (95% CI).

Conclusions

The simple inflammatory scores NLR and PLR together with simple ABR and ALBI scores can be used as quick tools to assess severity of liver cirrhosis. NLR can predict the presence of SBP in patients with ascites. ABR is superior to ALBI in discriminating ACLF from DLC.

Visceral Adiposity Associates With Malnutrition Risk Determined by Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool in Cirrhosis

Mounting evidence has suggested the clinical significance of body composition abnormalities in the context of cirrhosis. Herein, we aimed to investigate the association between visceral adiposity and malnutrition risk in 176 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. The adiposity parameters were obtained by computed tomography (CT) as follows: total adipose tissue index (TATI), visceral adipose tissue index (VATI), subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), and visceral to subcutaneous adipose tissue area ratio (VSR). Malnutrition risk was screened using Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT). Visceral adiposity was determined given a higher VSR based on our previously established cutoffs. Multivariate analysis implicated that male gender (OR = 2.884, 95% CI: 1.360–6.115, p = 0.006), BMI (OR = 0.879, 95% CI: 0.812–0.951, P = 0.001), albumin (OR = 0.934, 95% CI: 0.882–0.989, P = 0.019), and visceral adiposity (OR = 3.413, 95% CI: 1.344–8.670, P = 0.010) were independent risk factors of malnutrition risk. No significant difference was observed regarding TATI, SATI, and VATI among patients with low or moderate and high risk of malnutrition. In contrast, the proportion of male patients embracing visceral adiposity was higher in high malnutrition risk group compared with that in low or moderate group (47.27 vs. 17.86%, p = 0.009). Moreover, this disparity was of borderline statistical significance in women (19.05 vs. 5.88%, p = 0.061). Assessing adipose tissue distribution might potentiate the estimation of malnutrition risk in cirrhotics. It is pivotal to recognize visceral adiposity and develop targeted therapeutic strategies.

Baseline Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Is Independently Associated With 90-Day Transplant-Free Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

Background: Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of short-term mortality, however, few studies quantify the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhotic patients.

Methods: We prospectively analyzed 3,970 patients with chronic liver diseases from two multicenter cohorts in China (January 2015 to December 2016 and July 2018 to January 2019). Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to analyze the relation of NLR and all-causes 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhosis.

Results: A total of 2,583 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in our study. Restricted cubic splines showed that the odds ratio (OR) of all causes 90-day transplant-free mortality started to increase rapidly until around NLR 6.5, and then was relatively flat (p for non-linearity <0.001). The risk of 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhotic patients with NLR < 6.5 increased with an increment of 23% for every unit increase in NLR (p < 0.001). The patients with NLR < 4.5 had the highest risk (OR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.66–3.28). In multivariable-adjusted stratified analyses, the increase in the incidence of 90-day transplant-free mortality with NLR increasing was consistent (OR >1.0) across all major prespecified subgroups, including infection group (OR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.09) and non-infection (OR: 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.11) group. The trends for NLR and numbers of patients with organ failure varied synchronously and were significantly increased with time from day 7 to day 28.

Conclusions: We found a non-linear association between baseline NLR and the adjusted probability of 90-day transplant-free mortality. A certain range of NLR is closely associated with poor short-term prognosis in patients with cirrhosis.

Prolonged QTc interval predicts long-term mortality in cirrhosis: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval is a hallmark of cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) and has been ascertained to predict mortality in cirrhosis. However, some critical issues remain to be addressed including unanimous cut-off, calculation approach and applicable population.

METHODS

A total of 274 patients with cirrhosis were included. The prolonged QTc interval over 440 ms according to adjusted Fridericia's formula was used to stratify enrolled subjects. Independent predictors of 3-year mortality were identified with Cox regression model. The Kaplan-Meier method was implemented to obtain survival curves. To reduce impact of selection bias and possible confounders, a propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was used.

RESULTS

QTc > 440 ms was an independent risk factor in the entire cohort and PSM subset (HR 2.532, 95% CI 1.431-4.480, p=.001; HR 2.802, 95% CI 1.171-6.701, p=.021, respectively). Subgroup analysis showed that QTc > 440 ms was an independent predictor in cirrhotics with age ≤60 years (HR = 1.02, p=.035) and in the presence of ascites (HR = 1.01, p=.008).

CONCLUSIONS

The prolonged QTc interval might help to identify patients with high-risk of all-cause mortality.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is associated with malnutrition risk estimated by the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool in hospitalized cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is characterized by immune dysfunction, contributing to malnutrition. We previously revealed neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as an indicator of disordered immune system. Herein we aimed to (1) determine the optimal NLR cutoff that best predicts malnutrition risk and (2) clarify the association between NLR and nutrition status.

METHODS

A total of 135 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis were included. Immune dysfunction was evaluated by levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), NLR, and other parameters. Malnutrition was screened by a risk score referring to the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was implemented to determine the best NLR cutoff that predicts malnutrition risk. Correlation between NLR and indicators of hepatic and physical function (handgrip strength) were also examined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between NLR and malnutrition risk.

RESULTS

ROC curve revealed that the optimum cutoff to predict malnutrition risk was NLR > 4.2, with a sensitivity of 47.2%, specificity of 81.0%, negative predictive value of 58.0%, and positive predictive value of 74.5%, respectively. Patients with NLR > 4.2 exhibited a higher RFH-NPT score, serum platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and CRP. A positive correlation was found between NLR values and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (r = 0.22; P = .010), model for end-stage liver disease (r = 0.36; P < .001), and RFH-NPT scores (r = 0.31; P < .001). NLR was a risk factor for malnutrition independently of alcoholic liver disease and presence of ascites.

CONCLUSIONS

Immune dysfunction measured by NLR was associated with malnutrition risk estimated by RFH-NPT in cirrhosis.

Myopenic obesity determined by visceral fat area strongly predicts long-term mortality in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The impact of changes in body composition has proved to correlate with outcomes in cirrhosis, however, numerous issues remain elusive. The present study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of myopenic obesity (MO) on long-term mortality in cirrhosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 200 patients with cirrhosis. Body composition parameters including skeletal muscle index (SMI) and visceral fat area (VFA) were estimated by computed tomography images at the third lumbar vertebra level. We defined MO as a low SMI (male: SMI < 46.96 cm²/m² and female: SMI < 32.46 cm²/m²) with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² or VFA ≥ 100 cm² according to our previous publication. Patients were categorized into one of four body composition groups in terms of the presence or absence of myopenia and obesity.

RESULTS

On the basis of VFA or BMI, the four group comparison demonstrated the prognosis was poor in MO, followed by myopenic/nonobesity (MN), nonmyopenic/obesity and nonmyopenic/nonobesity, in that order (log-rank test). Multivariate Cox analysis identified that MO (HR 2.498; 95% CI, 1.214-5.140; P = 0.013), MN (HR 2.763; 95% CI, 1.244-6.134; P = 0.013), age (HR 3.035; 95% CI, 1.904-4.839; P < 0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR 1.142; 95% CI, 1.082-1.207; P < 0.001) and MELD (HR 1.140; 95% CI, 1.066-1.219; P = 0.001) were independently associated with 2-year mortality according to VFA classification.

CONCLUSIONS

MO was an independent predictor of higher long-term mortality in cirrhosis. Prevention strategies by reducing visceral fat obesity rather than BMI should be the optimal target for MO management.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and albumin bilirubin grade in hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cause of cancer related death globally. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin bilirubin (ALBI) grade are emerging prognostic indicators in HCC.

AIM

To study published literature of NLR and ALBI over the last five years, and to validate NLR and ALBI locally in our centre as indicators of HCC survival.

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature on PubMed of NLR and ALBI in HCC over the last five years. The search followed the guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Additionally, we also investigated HCC cases between December 2013 and December 2018 in our centre.

RESULTS

There were 54 studies describing the relation between HCC and NLR and 95 studies describing the relation between HCC and ALBI grade over the last five years. Our local cohort of patients showed NLR to have a significant negative relationship to survival (P = 0.011). There was also significant inverse relationship between the size of the largest HCC nodule and survival (P = 0.009). Median survival with alpha fetoprotein (AFP) < 10 KU/L was 20 mo and with AFP > 10 KU/L was 5 mo. We found that AFP was inversely related to survival, this relationship was not statically significant (P = 0.132). Mean survival for ALBI grade 1 was 37.7 mo, ALBI grade 2 was 13.4 months and ALBI grade 3 was 4.5 mo. ALBI grades performed better than Child Turcotte Pugh score in detecting death from HCC.

CONCLUSION

NLR and ALBI grade in HCC predict survival better than the conventional alpha fetoprotein. ALBI grade performs better than Child Turcotte Pugh score. These markers are done as part of routine clinical care and in cases of normal alpha fetoprotein, these markers could give a better understanding of the patient disease progression. NLR and ALBI grade could have a role in modified easier to learn staging and prognostic systems for HCC.

High neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio associated with progression to critical illness in older patients with COVID-19: a multicenter retrospective study

This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate the correlation of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with critical illness in older patients with COVID-19, and evaluate the prognostic power of the NLR at admission. We enrolled 232 patients with COVID-19, aged ≥60 y, in Zhejiang province from January 17 to March 3, 2020. Primary outcomes were evaluated until April 13. Cox regression was performed for prognostic factors. Twenty-nine (12.5%) patients progressed to critical illness. Age, shortness of breath, comorbidities including hypertension, heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, higher NLR, lower albumin levels, and multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity were associated with progression. In the multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.121, confidence interval [CI] 1.070-1.174, P<0.001), heart disease (HR 2.587, CI 1.156-5.787, P=0.021), higher NLR (HR 1.136, CI 1.094-1.180, P < 0.001), and multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity (HR 4.518, CI 1.906-10.712, P<0.001) remained critical illness predictors. The NLR was independently associated with progression to critical illness; the relationship was significant and graded (HR: 1.16 per unit; 95% CI: 1.10-1.22; P for trend < 0.001). Therefore, NLR can be adopted as a prognostic tool to assist healthcare providers predict the clinical outcomes of older patients suffering from COVID-19.

Incorporation of frailty estimated by gait speed within MELD-Na and the predictive potential for mortality in cirrhosis

Background:

The 5 m gait speed (5MGS), a simple and reliable performance metric and surrogate indicator of frailty, consistently predicts adverse events in elders. Additionally, MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) scores fail to capture nutritional and functional decline of cirrhotic patients that may confer excess mortality. We hypothesized that 5MGS might be associated with all-cause mortality, and that inclusion of frailty assessment within MELD-Na could improve the prediction of mortality in cirrhosis.

Methods:

5MGS was measured at baseline in 113 hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Survival status over 2 years and cirrhosis-related complications were recorded. We evaluated the prognostic value of 5MGS (as a continuous variable and as a dichotomous variable). The definition of slow versus preserved 5MGS was 0.8 ms⁻¹ based on previous publication. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, a novel MELDNa-5MGS score was derived. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves estimated discrimination between the new score model and established prognostic indices.

Results:

The continuous 5MGS and slow 5MGS were independent predictors of all-cause mortality [5MGS: hazard ratio (HR) 0.133 (0.047–0.347), p < 0.001; slow 5MGS: HR 4.805 (1.536–15.026), p < 0.007]. The equation derived from Cox regression analysis was as follows: MELDNa-5MGS: MELD-Na score + 11 × slow 5MGS. The 2-year mortality in patients with high MELDNa-5MGS score was significantly higher (p < 0.001). Discriminatory power was significantly better for MELDNa-5MGS than MELD-Na score (AUC: 0.802 versus 0.724, p = 0.014 for 1 year; 0.773 versus 0.709, p = 0.044 for 2 years).

Conclusion:

In cirrhotic patients, 5GMS is an independent risk factor of mortality. Modification of MELD-Na to include frailty estimated by low 5GMS is related to improved prognostication of mortality.