Population cycles in voles and lemmings: state of the science and future directions

Exploring the influence of density-dependence and weather on the spatial and temporal variation in common vole (Microtus arvalis) abundance in Castilla y León, NW Spain

BACKGROUND

The common vole has invaded the agroecosystems of northwestern Spain, where outbreaks cause important crop damage and management costs. Little is yet known about the factors causing or modulating vole fluctuations. Here, we used 11 years of vole abundance monitoring data in 40 sites to study density-dependence and weather influence on vole dynamics. Our objective was to identify the population dynamics structure and determine whether there is direct or delayed density-dependence. An evaluation of climatic variables followed, to determine whether they influenced vole population peaks.

RESULTS

First- and second-order outbreak dynamics were detected at 7 and 33 study sites, respectively, together with second-order variability in periodicity (2-3 to 4-5-year cycles). Vole population growth was explained by previous year abundance (mainly numbers in summer and spring) at 21 of the sites (52.5%), by weather variables at 11 sites (27.5%; precipitation or temperature in six and five sites, respectively), and by a combination of previous abundance and weather variables in eight sites (20%).

CONCLUSIONS

We detected variability in vole spatiotemporal abundance dynamics, which differs in cyclicity and period. We also found regional variation in the relative importance of previous abundances and weather as factors modulating vole fluctuations. Most vole populations were cyclical, with variable periodicity across the region. Our study is a first step towards the development of predictive modeling, by disclosing relevant factors that might trigger vole outbreaks. It improves decision-making processes within integrated management dealing with mitigation of the agricultural impacts caused by voles. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Lemming and Vole Cycles: A New Intrinsic Model

It is 100 years since the first paper described the multiannual cycles in Arctic rodents and lagomorphs. The mechanisms driving population cycles in animals like lemmings and voles are complex, often attributed to extrinsic factors, such as food availability and quality, pathogens, parasites and/or predators. While extrinsic factors provide insights into population cycles, none fully explain the phenomenon. We propose an underlying innate, intrinsic mechanism, based on epigenetic regulation, that drives population cycles under harsh arctic conditions. We propose that epigenetically driven phenotypic changes associated with sexual development, growth and behaviour accumulate over time in offspring, eventually producing a phase change from rising population density to eventual population collapse. Under this hypothesis, and unlike previous hypotheses, extrinsic factors modify population cycles but would not be primary drivers. The interaction between our intrinsic cycle and extrinsic factors explains established phenomena like delayed-density dependence, whereby population growth is controlled by time-dependent negative feedback. We advocate integrating a century of field research with the latest epigenetic analysis to better understand the drivers of population cycles.

Habitat type modulates sharp body mass oscillations in cyclic common vole populations

Cyclic rodent populations exhibit pronounced changes in body mass associated with the population cycle phase, long-known as Chitty effect. Although Chitty effect is a common epiphenomenon in both America and Europe, there is still incomplete evidence about the generality of these patterns across the entire range of most species. Moreover, despite decades of research, the underlying factors driving Chitty effect remains poorly understood. Here, we examined the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that may underlie observed patterns in vole size variation in the Iberian common vole Microtus arvalis asturianus. We weighed and measured 2816 adult voles that were captured during 6 trapping periods. Vole numbers and body mass showed strong period- and phase-related variation both in females and males, demonstrating marked Chitty effect in the studied population. Body mass of adult males correlated with body length, evidencing that heavier males are also structurally larger. Statistical models showed that probability of occurrence of large-sized vole (> 37 g) was significantly more likely in reproductive males, during increase and peak phases, and it was modulated by habitat, with crop fields and field margins between crops showing an increased likelihood. We suggest an effect of the habitat on vole body mass mediated by predation.

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Small rodent population cycles and plants - after 70 years, where do we go?

Small rodent population cycles characterise northern ecosystems, and the cause of these cycles has been a long-lasting central topic in ecology, with trophic interactions currently considered the most plausible cause. While some researchers have rejected plant-herbivore interactions as a cause of rodent cycles, others have continued to research their potential roles. Here, we present an overview of whether plants can cause rodent population cycles, dividing this idea into four different hypotheses with different pathways of plant impacts and related assumptions. Our systematic review of the existing literature identified 238 studies from 150 publications. This evidence base covered studies from the temperate biome to the tundra, but the studies were scattered across study systems and only a few specific topics were addressed in a replicated manner. Quantitative effects of rodents on vegetation was the best studied topic, and our evidence base suggests such that such effects may be most pronounced in winter. However, the regrowth of vegetation appears to take place too rapidly to maintain low rodent population densities over several years. The lack of studies prevented assessment of time lags in the qualitative responses of vegetation to rodent herbivory. We conclude that the literature is currently insufficient to discard with confidence any of the four potential hypotheses for plant-rodent cycles discussed herein. While new methods allow analyses of plant quality across more herbivore-relevant spatial scales than previously possible, we argue that the best way forward to rejecting any of the rodent-plant hypotheses is testing specific predictions of dietary variation. Indeed, all identified hypotheses make explicit assumptions on how rodent diet taxonomic composition and quality will change across the cycle. Passing this bottleneck could help pinpoint where, when, and how plant-herbivore interactions have - or do not have - plausible effects on rodent population dynamics.

Investigating tritrophic interactions using bioenergetic demographic models

A central debate in ecology has been the long-running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species, which can be surprisingly complex. Mechanistic models offer an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of some of this complexity. We present a bioenergetic mechanistic model of a tritrophic system where the primary vegetation resource follows a seasonal growth function, and the herbivore and carnivore species are modeled using two integral projection models (IPMs) with body mass as the phenotypic trait. Within each IPM, the demographic functions are structured according to bioenergetic principles, describing how animals acquire and transform resources into body mass, energy reserves, and breeding potential. We parameterize this model to reproduce the population dynamics of grass, elk, and wolves in northern Yellowstone National Park (USA) and investigate the impact of wolf reintroduction on the system. Our model generated predictions that closely matched the observed population sizes of elk and wolf in Yellowstone prior to and following wolf reintroduction. The introduction of wolves into our basal grass-elk bioenergetic model resulted in a population of 99 wolves and a reduction in elk numbers by 61% (from 14,948 to 5823) at equilibrium. In turn, vegetation biomass increased by approximately 25% in the growing season and more than threefold in the nongrowing season. The addition of wolves to the model caused the elk population to switch from being food-limited to being predator-limited and had a stabilizing effect on elk numbers across different years. Wolf predation also led to a shift in the phenotypic composition of the elk population via a small increase in elk average body mass. Our model represents a novel approach to the study of predator-prey interactions, and demonstrates that explicitly considering and linking bioenergetics, population demography and body mass phenotypes can provide novel insights into the mechanisms behind complex ecosystem processes.

Episodic population fragmentation and gene flow reveal a trade-off between heterozygosity and allelic richness

In episodic environments like deserts, populations of some animal species exhibit irregular fluctuations such that populations are alternately large and connected or small and isolated. Such dynamics are typically driven by periodic resource pulses due, for example, to large but infrequent rainfall events. The repeated population bottlenecks resulting from fragmentation should lower genetic diversity over time, yet species undergoing these fluctuations appear to maintain high levels of genetic diversity. To resolve this apparent paradox, we simulated a metapopulation of constant size undergoing repeat episodes of fragmentation and change in gene flow to mimic outcomes experienced by mammals in an Australian desert. We show that episodic fragmentation and gene flow have contrasting effects on two measures of genetic diversity: heterozygosity and allelic richness. Specifically, fragmentation into many, small subpopulations, coupled with periods of infrequent gene flow, preserves allelic richness at the expense of heterozygosity. In contrast, fragmentation into a few, large subpopulations maintains heterozygosity at the expense of allelic richness. The strength of the trade-off between heterozygosity and allelic richness depends on the amount of gene flow and the frequency of gene flow events. Our results imply that the type of genetic diversity maintained among species living in strongly fluctuating environments will depend on the way populations fragment, with our results highlighting different mechanisms for maintaining allelic richness and heterozygosity in small, fragmented populations.

Global and local drivers of Echinococcus multilocularis infection in the western Balkan region

The cestode, Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the most threatening parasitic challenges in the European Union. Despite the warming climate, the parasite intensively spread in Europe's colder and warmer regions. Little is known about the expansion of E. multilocularis in the Balkan region. Ordinary least squares, geographically weighted and multi-scale geographically weighted regressions were used to detect global and local drivers that influenced the prevalence in red foxes and golden jackals in the southwestern part of Hungary. Based on the study of 391 animals, the overall prevalence exceeded 18% (in fox 15.2%, in jackal 21.1%). The regression models revealed that the wetland had a global effect (β = 0.391, p = 0.006). In contrast, on the local scale, the mean annual precipitation (β = 0.285, p = 0.008) and the precipitation seasonality (β = - 0.211, p = 0.014) had statistically significant effects on the infection level. The geospatial models suggested that microclimatic effects might compensate for the disadvantages of a warmer Mediterranean climate. This study calls attention to fine-scale analysis and locally acting environmental factors, which can delay the expected epidemic fade-out. The findings of our study are suggested to consider in surveillance strategies.

Twenty-nine years of continuous monthly capture-mark-recapture data of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) in Morogoro, Tanzania

The multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) is the most-studied rodent species in sub-Saharan Africa, where it is an important pest species in agriculture and carrier of zoonotic diseases (e.g. Lassa virus). Here, we provide a unique dataset that consists of twenty-nine years of continuous monthly capture-mark-recapture entries on one 3 ha mosaic field (MOSA) in Morogoro, Tanzania. It is one of the most accurate and long-running capture-recapture time series on a small mammal species worldwide and unique to Africa. The database can be used by ecologists to test hypotheses on the population dynamics of small mammals (e.g. to test the effect of climate change), or to validate new algorithms on real long-term field data (e.g. new survival analyses techniques). It is also useful for both scientists and decision-makers who want to optimize rodent control strategies and predict outbreaks of multimammate mice.

Small rodent monitoring at Birkebeiner Road, Norway

Background

Northern small mammal populations are renowned for their multi-annual population cycles. Population cycles are multi-faceted and have extensive impacts on the rest of the ecosystem. In 2011, we started a student-based research activity to monitor the variation of small rodent density along an elevation gradient following the Birkebeiner Road, in southeast Norway. Fieldwork was conducted by staff and students at the University campus Evenstad, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, which has a long history of researching cyclic population dynamics. The faculty has a strong focus on engaging students in all parts of the research activities, including data collection. Small rodents were monitored using a set of snap trap stations. Trapped animals were measured (e.g. body mass, body length, sex) and dissected to assess their reproductive status. We also characterised the vegetation at trapping sites.

New information

We provide a dataset of small rodent observations that show fluctuating population dynamics across an elevation gradient (300 m to 1,100 m a.s.l) and in contrasting habitats. This dataset encompasses three peaks of the typical 3-4-year vole population cycles; the number of small rodents and shrews captured show synchrony and peaked in years 2014, 2017 and 2021. The bank vole Myodesglareolus was by far (87%) the most common species trapped, but also other species were observed (including shrews). We provide digital data collection forms and highlight the importance of long-term data collection.

A global evaluation of the associations between long-term dynamics of seed falls and rodents

One classic system of pulsed resource and animal population is mast seeding and population dynamics of seed-eating rodents in forests. However, we still lack an understanding of the global patterns regarding the contributions of seed falls to rodent outbreaks or population dynamics. We analyzed a global dataset of coupled long-term time series of seed abundances and rodent populations from published literature, including 66 and 89 time series (156 rodent-seed pairs from 37 studies) for rodent and seed abundances, respectively. We found only half of the examined rodent populations showed statistically significant coincidence between rodent outbreak and mast-seeding years. Over all the coupled time series, seed abundance was found to positively correlate with rodent abundance with a one-year lag, and the relative importance of seed abundance was much lower than that of density dependence in affecting rodent population growth rates. We also found the relative importance of seed abundance decreased, but that of rodent density dependence increased with the latitude of study. For the first time, our work provides a global pattern on the associations between seed falls and rodent population dynamics mostly in mid- and high-latitude forests, and highlights the necessity of more long-term studies on this subject in more forest ecosystems.

Is chronic stress a causal mechanism for small mammal population cycles? Reconciling the evidence

Chronic stress has long been hypothesized to play a role in driving population cycles. Christian (1950) hypothesized that high population density results in chronic stress and mass "die-offs" in small mammal populations. Updated variations of this hypothesis propose that chronic stress at high population density may reduce fitness, reproduction, or program aspects of phenotype, driving population declines. We tested the effect of density on the stress axis in meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) by manipulating population density in field enclosures over three years. Using fecal corticosterone metabolites as a non-invasive measure of glucocorticoid (GC) concentrations, we found that density alone was not associated with GC differences. However, we found that the seasonal relationship of GC levels differed by density treatment, with high-density populations having elevated GC levels early in the breeding season and decreasing towards late summer. We additionally tested hippocampal glucocorticoid receptor and mineralocorticoid receptor gene expression in juvenile voles born at different densities, with the hypothesis that high density may reduce receptor expression, altering negative feedback of the stress axis. We found that females had marginally higher glucocorticoid receptor expression at high density, no effect in males, and no detectable effect of density on mineralocorticoid receptor expression in either sex. Hence, we found no evidence that high density directly impairs negative feedback in the hippocampus, but rather female offspring may be better equipped for negative feedback. We compare our findings with prior studies to attempt to disentangle the complicated relationship between density, seasonality, sex, reproduction and the stress axis.

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ_S . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λ_S decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λ_S . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

The spectral color of natural and anthropogenic time series and its impact on the statistical significance of cross correlation

The cross-correlation between time series is a common tool to study and quantify the impact of climatic and anthropogenic changes on ecosystems. The traditional method for estimating the statistical significance of correlation relies on the assumption that the data are independent, but time series found in nature are often strongly auto-correlated because of low-frequency environmental variability and ecosystem inertia. Previous authors have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the impact of serial auto-correlation on the significance of cross-correlations. Most studies have used random time series that are often a poor representation of those found in nature, e.g., low-order auto-regressive models with normally distributed noise. Moreover, we are not aware of any tests of the applicability of those methods to anthropogenic time series. Here, we study the effect of serial auto-correlation on the performance of two methods for estimating the significance of cross-correlations determined from Monte Carlo simulations with time series that are generated synthetically based on power-law specification of spectral characteristics. Such time series have an auto-correlation structure defined by a single parameter, their spectral "color", and are generally more convenient representations of natural time series than the autoregressive models. Our results show that one of the two methods considered here accurately reproduces prescribed error rates for the wide range of spectral colors representative of climatic, ecological and anthropogenic time series. For this, we characterized roughly 1800 observational records in different categories of spectral colors, including climate variability, abundance of vertebrate species, and pollution. We specifically focus on time series with annual sampling over data records of at least 40 years, which are particularly relevant for climate studies. The methodology advocated in this study provides a simple and realistic assessment of the significance of sample estimates of cross correlation for time series with any sample interval and record length.

An experimental analysis of density dependence in meadow voles: Within-season and delayed effects

Wild mammal populations exhibit a variety of dynamics, ranging from fairly stable with little change in population size over time to high-amplitude cyclic or erratic fluctuations. A persistent question in population ecology is why populations fluctuate as they do. Answering this seemingly simple question has proven to be challenging. Broadly, density-dependent feedback mechanisms should allow populations to grow at low density and slow or halt growth at high density. However, experimental tests of what demographic processes result in density-dependent feedback and on what timescale have proven elusive. Here, we used replicated density perturbation experiments and capture-mark-recapture analyses to test density-dependent population growth in populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) during the summer breeding season by manipulating founding population density and observing the pattern of survival, reproduction, and population growth. High population density had no consistent effect on survival rates but generally negatively influenced recruitment and population growth rates. However, these density-dependent effects varied within the breeding season and across years. Our study provides evidence that density-dependent feedback mechanisms operate at finer time scales than previously believed and that process, additively with delayed year effects, is key to understanding multiyear population demography.

Population fluctuations and synanthropy explain transmission risk in rodent-borne zoonoses

Population fluctuations are widespread across the animal kingdom, especially in the order Rodentia, which includes many globally important reservoir species for zoonotic pathogens. The implications of these fluctuations for zoonotic spillover remain poorly understood. Here, we report a global empirical analysis of data describing the linkages between habitat use, population fluctuations and zoonotic reservoir status in rodents. Our quantitative synthesis is based on data collated from papers and databases. We show that the magnitude of population fluctuations combined with species' synanthropy and degree of human exploitation together distinguish most rodent reservoirs at a global scale, a result that was consistent across all pathogen types and pathogen transmission modes. Our spatial analyses identified hotspots of high transmission risk, including regions where reservoir species dominate the rodent community. Beyond rodents, these generalities inform our understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors interact to increase the risk of zoonotic spillover in a rapidly changing world.

Balancing food acquisition and predation risk drives demographic changes in snowshoe hare population cycles

Snowshoe hare cycles are one of the most prominent phenomena in ecology. Experimental studies point to predation as the dominant driving factor, but previous experiments combining food supplementation and predator removal produced unexplained multiplicative effects on density. We examined the potential interactive effects of food limitation and predation in causing hare cycles using an individual-based food-supplementation experiment over-winter across three cycle phases that naturally varied in predation risk. Supplementation doubled over-winter survival with the largest effects occurring in the late increase phase. Although the proximate cause of mortality was predation, supplemented hares significantly decreased foraging time and selected for conifer habitat, potentially reducing their predation risk. Supplemented hares also lost less body mass which resulted in the production of larger leverets. Our results establish a mechanistic link between how foraging time, mass loss and predation risk affect survival and reproduction, potentially driving demographic changes associated with hare cycles.

Model responses to CO2 and warming are underestimated without explicit representation of Arctic small-mammal grazing

We use a simple model of coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems to examine how "explicitly representing grazers" vs. "having grazer effects implicitly aggregated in with other biogeochemical processes in the model" alters predicted responses to elevated carbon dioxide and warming. The aggregated approach can affect model predictions because grazer-mediated processes can respond differently to changes in climate compared with the processes with which they are typically aggregated. We use small-mammal grazers in a tundra as an example and find that the typical three-to-four-year cycling frequency is too fast for the effects of cycle peaks and troughs to be fully manifested in the ecosystem biogeochemistry. We conclude that implicitly aggregating the effects of small-mammal grazers with other processes results in an underestimation of ecosystem response to climate change, relative to estimations in which the grazer effects are explicitly represented. The magnitude of this underestimation increases with grazer density. We therefore recommend that grazing effects be incorporated explicitly when applying models of ecosystem response to global change.

Estimating abundance, temporary emigration, and the pattern of density dependence in a cyclic snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) population in Yukon, Canada

Estimates of demographic parameters based on capture–mark–recapture (CMR) methods may be biased when some individuals in the population are temporarily unavailable for capture (temporary emigration). We estimated snowshoe hare abundance, apparent survival, and probability of temporary emigration in a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) in the Yukon (Canada) using Pollock’s robust design CMR model, and population density using spatially explicit CMR models. Survival rates strongly varied among cyclic phases, seasons, and across five population cycles. We found strong evidence that temporary emigration was Markovian (i.e., nonrandom), suggesting that it varied among individuals that were temporary emigrant in the previous sampling period and those that were present in the sampled area. The probability of temporary emigration for individuals that were in the study area during the previous sampling occasion (γ″) varied among cycles. Probability that individuals that were temporarily absent from the sampled area would remain temporary emigrants (γ′) showed strongly seasonal pattern, low in winter and high during summers. Snowshoe hare population density ranged from 0.017 (0.015–0.05) hares/ha to 4.43 (3.90–5.00) hares/ha and showed large-scale cyclical fluctuations. Autocorrelation functions and autoregressive analyses revealed that our study population exhibited statistically significant cyclic fluctuations, with a periodicity of 9–10 years.

Shrinkage of body size in rodents as a strategy of populations under anthropogenic conditions (results of 50 years of study of rodent populations)

Based on results of 50 years of continuous observations of populations of the pine vole (Microtus subterraneus de Selys-Longchamps, 1836) and yellow-necked wood mouse (Sylvaemus flavicollis Melchior, 1834), the phenomenon of reducing body size of individuals was revealed, particularly a significant reduction in body dimensions and body mass. The research was conducted at the Kaniv Nature Reserve covering various stages of the local ecosystem's existence under anthropogenic impact. Four cycles of density dynamics of two populations are chosen for comparison of their characteristics. The first three cycles correspond to qualitatively different periods in the existence of the protected ecosystem and populations of the studied species, whereas the last cycle reflects the current situation. It has been established that the tendency to decrease body dimensions is also characteristic for other rodent species, its manifestations are observed for 35 years, and the scale gradually increases. By fatness indexes, individuals of the pine vole on average lose 23.3% and yellow-necked wood mice lose 16.7% of the former values. It was shown that the level of reduce in exterior parameters is always greater in females than in males, and in the group of breeding adults it can reach 32%. It has been found that the phenomenon also applies to juveniles, whose fatness decreases by an average of 21%. The phenomenon occurs against the background of violations of various aspects of population dynamics, which allows it to be associated with anthropogenic changes in the environment. It is suggested that shrinking can be realized by various mechanisms. First, as a result of mortality, the largest individuals and reproductive females with their greatest energy needs fall out of the population, and, second, the growth and weight gain of young animals is slower. As a result, the decrease in external parameters of individuals reduces their specific energy needs and allows them to better survive under adverse conditions. From these points of view, reducing body dimensions can be considered as a specific population strategy to maintain ecological balance.

Population dynamics of an island population of water voles Arvicola amphibius (Linnaeus, 1758) with one major predator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo (Linnaeus, 1758), in northern Norway

Predator–prey relationships are of great significance to ecosystems, and their effects on the population dynamics of voles and lemmings (Microtinae) in Boreal and Arctic environments have long been of particular interest. A simple ecosystem with one major prey and one major predator could be an ideal setting for a study of their interactions. This is the situation on several small islands on the coast of northern Norway just below the Arctic Circle, with populations of water voles Arvicola amphibius preyed upon by the eagle owl Bubo bubo. The population dynamics of the water vole was studied by trapping and tagging in 2003–2018, eagle owl pellets were collected for analyses, eagle owl breeding attempts were recorded, and some weather variables collected from official recordings. After having been introduced well into the study period, the number of sheep Ovis aries was also recorded. Water voles were the main prey of the eagle owl, with 89% occurrence in pellets, with an overrepresentation of adults and males. Both predation, sheep grazing and extreme weather events influenced the vole population. Predator exclusion, as happened in three summers due to an intensive radio tracking study, especially increased the number of surviving young (in particular from the early cohorts) and the mass of adults. Extreme weather events, such as flooding in summer and deeply frozen ground in winter, most significantly reduced vole populations. Sheep grazing may exacerbate the effects of predation. A similar multitude of factors may affect populations of other rodent species as well.

Plant-herbivore interactions: Combined effect of groundwater level, root vole grazing, and sedge silicification

Accumulation of silica (Si) by plants can be driven by (1) herbivory pressure (and therefore plant-herbivore interactions), (2) geohydrological cycles, or (3) a combination of (1) and (2), with (1-3) possibly affecting Si concentration with a 1-year delay.To identify the relative significance of (1-3), we analyzed the concentration of Si in fibrous tussock sedge (Carex appropinquata), the population density of the root vole (Microtus oeconomus), and the groundwater level, over 11 years.The largest influence of autumn Si concentration in leaves (Sileaf) was on the level of the current-year groundwater table, which was positive and accounted for 13.3% of its variance. The previous year's vole population density was weakly positively correlated with Sileaf, and it alone explained 9.5% of its variance.The only variable found to have a positive, significant effect on autumn Si concentration in rhizomes (Sirhiz) was the current-year spring water level, explaining as much as 60.9% of its variance.We conclude that the changes in Si concentration in fibrous tussock sedge are predominantly driven by hydrology, with vole population dynamics being secondary.Our results provide only partial support for the existence of plant-herbivore interactions, as we did not detect the significant effects of Si tussock concentration on the vole density dynamics. This was mainly due to the low level of silicification of sedges, which was insufficient to impinge herbivores.Future studies on plant-herbivore interactions should therefore aim at disentangling whether anti-herbivore protection is dependent on threshold values of herbivore population dynamics. Furthermore, studies on Si accumulation should focus on the effect of water-mediated Si availability.

Unexpected involvement of a second rodent species makes impacts of introduced rats more difficult to detect

Rodent predators are implicated in declines of seabird populations, and removing introduced rats, often, but not always, results in the expected conservation gains. Here we investigated the relationship between small mammal (Norway rat, wood mouse and pygmy shrew) abundance and Manx shearwater breeding success on the island of Rum, Scotland, and tested whether localised rodenticide treatments (to control introduced Norway rats) increased Manx shearwater breeding success. We found that Manx shearwater breeding success was negatively correlated with late summer indices of abundance for rats and mice, but not shrews. On its own, rat activity was a poor predictor of Manx shearwater breeding success. Rat activity increased during the shearwater breeding season in untreated areas but was supressed in areas treated with rodenticides. Levels of mouse (and shrew) activity increased in areas treated with rodenticides (likely in response to lower levels of rat activity) and Manx shearwater breeding success was unchanged in treated areas (p < 0.1). The results suggest that, unexpectedly, negative effects from wood mice can substitute those of Norway rats and that both species contributed to negative impacts on Manx shearwaters. Impacts were intermittent however, and further research is needed to characterise rodent population trends and assess the long-term risks to this seabird colony. The results have implications for conservation practitioners planning rat control programmes on islands where multiple rodent species are present.

Post-Pandemic Urbanism: Criteria for a New Normal

Globalization, tourism, virtuality, climate change, and the explosive growth of cities have generated a wide range of stressors, pollutants, and toxins that have been ravaging populations. This, coupled with viral, bacterial, and other pandemics, is rapidly creating a new reality that requires public health factors to be integrated more thoroughly into the planning and design of city regions. This prompts a questioning of the role and form of city centers as well as the distribution of people and activities in city regions. This goes beyond more outdoor spaces, places, and activities and new criteria for indoor events. Moreover, public transport, mobility, and infrastructure in general need to be retooled to deal with these emergent circumstances.

Genomic Resources for the North American Water Vole (Microtus richardsoni) and the Montane Vole (Microtus montanus)

Voles of the genus Microtus are important research organisms, yet genomic resources are lacking. Such resources would benefit future studies of immunology, phylogeography, cryptic diversity, and more. We sequenced and assembled nuclear genomes from two subspecies of water vole (Microtus richardsoni) and from the montane vole (Microtus montanus). The water vole genomes were sequenced with Illumina and 10× Chromium plus Illumina sequencing, resulting in assemblies with ∼1600,000 and ∼30,000 scaffolds, respectively. The montane vole was also assembled into ∼13,000 scaffolds using Illumina sequencing. Mitochondrial genome assemblies were also performed for both species. Structural and functional annotation for the best water vole nuclear genome resulted in ∼24,500 annotated genes, with 83% of these having functional annotations. Assembly quality statistics for our nuclear assemblies fall within the range of genomes previously published in the genus Microtus, making the water vole and montane vole genomes useful additions to currently available genomic resources.

Molecular mechanisms of self-regulation in multiannual rodent populations: Experimental test of an updated hypothesis

IN FOCUS

Edwards, P. D., Frenette-Ling, C., Palme, R., & Boonstra, R. (2021). Social density suppresses GnRH expression and reduces reproductivity in voles: A mechanism for population self-regulation. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90, 784-795. Intrinsic population processes are important in the regulation of populations of small rodents, including those which display multiannual cycles. By measuring reproductive parameters, faecal androgen metabolites, and gene expression and DNA methylation in the CNS of juvenile voles, this paper demonstrates that suppression of reproduction occurs in female voles at high density compared to low density in enclosures, and that this maternal, epigenetic effect is also apparent in their offspring. This suggsests that direct density dependence influences reproduction and, hence, immediate rate of population growth, while gene expression mediated by DNA methylation blocking transcription, may have a delayed density-dependent effect in juveniles. Both direct and delayed density dependence are necessary to generate multiannual population cycles. Edwards et al. (2021) break new ground in demonstrating the molecular and physiological basis of variation in population dynamics of small mammals ranging from multiannual cycles to stability that have fascinated researchers for nearly a century.

Role of individual dispersal in genetic resilience in fluctuating populations of the gray-sided vole Myodes rufocanus

Population densities of the gray-sided vole Myodes rufocanus fluctuate greatly within and across years in Japan. Here, to investigate the role of individual dispersal in maintaining population genetic diversity, we examined how genetic diversity varied during fluctuations in density by analyzing eight microsatellite loci in voles sampled three times per year for 5 years, using two fixed trapping grids (approximately 0.5 ha each). At each trapping session, all captured voles at each trapping grid were removed. The STRUCTURE program was used to analyze serially collected samples to examine how population crashes were related to temporal variability, based on local-scale genetic compositions in each population. In total, 461 and 527 voles were captured at each trapping grid during this study. The number of voles captured during each trapping session (i.e., vole density) varied considerably at both grids. Although patterns in fluctuations were not synchronized between grids, the peak densities were similar. At both grids, the mean allele number recorded at each trapping session was strongly, positively, and nonlinearly correlated with density. STRUCTURE analyses revealed that the proportions of cluster compositions among individuals at each grid differed markedly before and after the crash phase, implying the long-distance dispersal of voles from remote areas at periods of low density. The present results suggest that, in gray-sided vole populations, genetic diversity varies with density largely at the local scale; in contrast, genetic variation in a metapopulation is well-preserved at the regional scale due to the density-dependent dispersal behaviors of individuals. By influencing the dispersal patterns of individuals, fluctuations in density affect metapopulation structure spatially and temporally, while the levels of genetic diversity are preserved in a metapopulation.

Contribution of late-litter juveniles to the population dynamics of snowshoe hares

Determining the factors driving cyclic dynamics in species has been a primary focus of ecology. For snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), explanations of their 10-year population cycles most commonly feature direct predation during the peak and decline, in combination with their curtailment in reproduction. Hares are thought to stop producing third and fourth litters during the cyclic decline and do not recover reproductive output for several years. The demographic effects of these reproductive changes depend on the consistency of this pattern across cycles, and the relative contribution to population change of late-litter versus early litter juveniles. We used monitoring data on snowshoe hares in Yukon, Canada, to examine the contribution of late-litter juveniles to the demography of their cycles, by assigning litter group for individuals caught in autumn based on body size and capture date. We found that fourth-litter juveniles occur consistently during the increase phase of each cycle, but are rare and have low over-winter survival (0.05) suggesting that population increase is unlikely to be caused by their occurrence. The proportion of third-litter juveniles captured in the autumn remains relatively constant across cycle phases, while over-winter survival rates varies particularly for earlier-litter juveniles (0.14-0.39). Juvenile survival from all litters is higher during the population increase and peak, relative to the low and decline. Overall, these results suggest that the transition from low phase to population growth may stem in large part from changes in juvenile survival as opposed to increased reproductive output through the presence of a 4th litter.

Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve

Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.

A mechanism for population self-regulation: Social density suppresses GnRH expression and reduces reproductivity in voles

Nearly 100 years ago, Charles Elton described lemming and vole population cycles as ecological models for understanding population regulation in nature. Yet, the mechanisms driving these cycles are still not fully understood. These rodent populations can continue to cycle in the absence of predation and with food supplementation, and represent a major unsolved problem in population ecology. It has been hypothesized that the social environment at high population density can drive selection for a low-reproduction phenotype, resulting in population self-regulation as an intrinsic mechanism driving the cycles. However, a physiological mechanism for this self-regulation has not been demonstrated. We manipulated population density in wild meadow voles Microtus pennsylvanicus using large-scale field enclosures over 3 years and examined reproductive performance and physiology. Within the field enclosures, we assessed the proportion of breeding animals, mass at sexual maturation, and faecal androgen and oestrogen metabolites. We then collected brain tissue from juvenile voles born at high or low density, quantified mRNA expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and oestrogen receptor alpha (ERα) and measured DNA methylation at six CpG sites in a region that was highly conserved with the mouse GnRH promoter. At high density, there was a lower proportion of reproductive animals. Juvenile voles born at high densities had reduced expression of GnRH in the hypothalamus, accompanied by marginally lower faecal sex hormone metabolites. Female juvenile voles born at high density also had higher methylation levels at two CpG sites while males did not, aligning with prior observations that females (but not males) from high-density environments retain reduced reproduction long term. Our results support a physiological basis for population self-regulation in vole cycles, as altering population density alone induced reproductive downregulation at the hypothalamic level. Our results demonstrate that altering the early-life social environment can fundamentally impact reproductive function in the brain. This, in turn, can drive population demography changes in wild animals.

Population changes and limitation in the montane vole (Microtus montanus) in perennial old-field grasslands: insights from a long-term study

We livetrapped populations of Microtus montanus from 1982 to 2003 in semiarid perennial old-field grasslands of southern British Columbia. We evaluated two, nonmutually exclusive hypotheses (H) to explain their population dynamics: first (H1), that extended breeding during the summer or winter will drive the increase phase of population fluctuations; and second (H2), that density-dependent depression of juvenile survival will be reflected in poor early juvenile survival during high populations. Populations on 2–3 grids of 1 ha were livetrapped at 3- to 8-week intervals in summer and winter except in 5 years of very low populations. Densities ranged from 10/ha to 250/ha. Peak densities occurred in 6 years and an extended low phase occurred from 1999 to 2003. Fluctuations of 3–4 years appeared in our populations but were not always present. Breeding occurred both in summer and winter, and the best predictor of the population growth rate was the fraction of adult females lactating in summer or winter, thereby supporting H1. Juvenile production (number of juveniles/lactating female) varied greatly among years with the mean being over two times higher in low (2.41) than high (1.08) years, thereby supporting H2. There was no clear correlation between population changes and either seasonal temperatures or rainfall, or any combination of these two variables, and no obvious cause of the prolonged low from 1999 to 2003. Thus, both female reproduction and juvenile production drive montane vole dynamics demographically, similar to what is found in other vole species. However, the ultimate cause of these changes remains to be tackled experimentally.

The hidden effect of inadvertent social information use on fluctuating predator–prey dynamics

Understanding biotic interactions and abiotic forces that govern population regulation is crucial for predicting stability from both theoretical and applied perspectives. In recent years, social information has been proposed to profoundly affect the dynamics of populations and facilitate the coexistence of interacting species. However, we have limited knowledge about how social information use influences cyclic and non-cyclic fluctuations of populations and if any population-level effects can be expected in species where individuals do not form social groups. In this study, I built individual-based models in a factorial design to investigate how predator avoidance behaviour and associated inadvertent social information (ISI) use alters the predictions of classical predator–prey population models in non-grouping (e.g., randomly moving) animals. Simulation results showed that ISI use in prey stabilized population dynamics by disrupting high-amplitude cyclic fluctuations in both predator and prey populations. Moreover, it also decreased the strength of the negative feedback of second-order dependence between predator and prey. I propose that if social cues are commonly used sources of information in animals regardless of the level of social organization, then similar social information-mediated effects on trophic interactions and population dynamics may be prevalent in natural communities.

Demography of snowshoe hare population cycles

Cyclic fluctuations in abundance exhibited by some mammalian populations in northern habitats ("population cycles") are key processes in the functioning of many boreal and tundra ecosystems. Understanding population cycles, essentially demographic processes, necessitates discerning the demographic mechanisms that underlie numerical changes. Using mark-recapture data spanning five population cycles (1977-2017), we examined demographic mechanisms underlying the 9-10-yr cycles exhibited by snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben) in southwestern Yukon, Canada. Snowshoe hare populations always decreased during winter and increased during summer; the balance between winter declines and summer increases characterized the four, multiyear cyclic phases: increase, peak, decline, and low. Little or no recruitment occurred during winter, but summer recruitment varied markedly across the four phases with the highest and lowest recruitment observed during the increase and decline phase, respectively. Population crashes during the decline were triggered by a substantial decline in winter survival and by a lack of subsequent summer recruitment. In contrast, initiation of the increase phase was triggered by a twofold increase in summer recruitment abetted secondarily by improvements in subsequent winter survival. We show that differences in peak density across cycles are explained by differences in overall population growth rate, amount of time available for population growth to occur, and starting population density. Demographic mechanisms underlying snowshoe hare population cycles were consistent across cycles in our study site but we do not yet know if similar demographic processes underlie population cycles in other northern snowshoe hare populations.