Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22-year case study of an arboreal marsupial

Can NDVI identify drought refugia for mammals and birds in mesic landscapes?

Refugia within landscapes are increasingly important as climate change intensifies, yet identifying refugia, and how they respond to climatic perturbations remains understudied. We use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) developed during extreme drought to identify drought refugia. We then utilise camera trapping to understand the ecological role and importance of these refugia under fluctuating rainfall conditions. Ground foraging mammals and birds were surveyed annually from 2016 to 2019 whereby 171 remote-sensing cameras were deployed in the southern section of the Grampians, Australia. NDVI values were calculated during Australia's millennium drought, allowing the assessment of how NDVI calculated during extreme drought predicts drought refugia and the response of biodiversity to NDVI under rainfall fluctuations. Site occupancy of bird and mammal assemblages were dependent on NDVI, with areas of high NDVI during drought exhibiting characteristics consistent with refugia. Rainfall pulses increased site occupancy at all sites with colonisation probability initially associated with higher NDVI sites. Extinction probabilities were greatest at low NDVI sites when rainfall declined. Within mesic systems, remotely sensed NDVI can identify areas of the landscape that act as drought refugia enabling landscape management to prioritise species conservation within these areas. The protection and persistence of refugia is crucial in ensuring landscapes and their species communities therein are resilient to a range of climate change scenarios.

Source-sink dynamics assists the maintenance of a pollinating wasp

Dispersal that unites spatially subdivided populations into a metapopulation with source-sink dynamics is crucial for species persistence in fragmented landscapes. Understanding such dynamics for pollinators is particularly urgent owing to the ongoing global pollination crisis. Here, we investigated the population structure and source-sink dynamics of a pollinating wasp (Wiebesia sp. 3) of Ficus pumila in the Zhoushan Archipelago of China. We found significant asymmetry in the pairwise migrant numbers for 22 of 28 cases on the historical timescale, but only two on the contemporary timescale. Despite a small population size, the sole island not colonized by a superior competitor wasp (Wiebesia sp. 1) consistently behaved as a net exporter of migrants, supplying large sinks. Comparable levels of genetic diversity, with few private alleles and low genetic differentiation (total F_st : 0.03; pairwise F_st : 0.0005-0.0791), were revealed among all the islands. There was a significant isolation-by-distance pattern caused mainly by migration between the competition-free island and other islands, otherwise the pattern was negligible. The clustering analysis failed to detect multiple gene pools for the whole region. Thus, the sinks were most probably organized into a patchy population. Moreover, the estimates of effective population sizes were comparable between the two timescales. Thus the source-sink dynamics embedded within a well-connected population network may allow Wiebesia sp. 3 to persist at a competitive disadvantage. This study provides evidence that metapopulations in the real world may be complicated and changeable over time, highlighting the necessity to study such metapopulations in detail.

Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes

Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.

Effects of crowding due to habitat loss on species assemblage patterns

Terrestrial animals are negatively affected by habitat loss, which is assessed on a landscape scale, whereas secondary effects of habitat loss, such as crowding, are usually disregarded. Such impacts are inherently hard to address and poorly understood, and there is a growing concern that they could have dire consequences. We sampled birds throughout a deforestation process to assess crowding stress in an adjacent habitat remnant in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Crowding is expected of highly mobile taxa, especially given the microhabitat heterogeneity of Neotropical forests, and we hypothesized that the arrival of new individuals or species in refuges shifts assemblage patterns. We used point counts to obtain bird abundances in a before-after-control-impact design sampling of a deforestation event. Temporal changes in taxonomic and functional diversity were examined with metrics used to assess alpha and beta diversity, turnover of taxonomic and functional similarity, and taxonomic and functional composition. Over time increased abundance of some species altered the Simpson index and affected the abundance-distribution of traits in the habitat remnant. Taxonomic composition and functional composition changed in the remnant, and thus bird assemblages changed over time. Taxonomic and functional metrics indicated that fugitives affected resident assemblages in refuges, and effects endured >2 years after the deforestation processes had ceased. Dissimilarity of taxonomic composition between pre- and postdeforestation assemblages increased, whereas functional composition reverted to preimpact conditions. We found that ecological disruptions resulted from crowding and escalated into disruptions of species' assemblages and potentially compromising ecosystem functioning. It is important to consider crowding effects of highly mobile taxa during impact assessments, especially in large-scale infrastructure projects that may affect larger areas than is assumed.

Relationship between effective and demographic population size in continuously distributed populations

Genetic monitoring of wild populations can offer insights into demographic and genetic information simultaneously. However, widespread application of genetic monitoring is hindered by large uncertainty in the estimation and interpretation of target metrics such as contemporary effective population size, Ne . We used four long-term genetic and demographic studies (≥9 years) to evaluate the temporal stability of the relationship between Ne and demographic population size (Nc ). These case studies focused on mammals that are continuously distributed, yet dispersal-limited within the spatial scale of the study. We estimated local, contemporary Ne with single-sample methods (LDNE, Heterozygosity Excess, and Molecular Ancestry) and demographic abundance with either mark-recapture estimates or catch-per-unit effort indices. Estimates of Ne varied widely within each case study suggesting interpretation of estimates is challenging. We found inconsistent correlations and trends both among estimates of Ne and between Ne and Nc suggesting the value of Ne as an indicator of Nc is limited in some cases. In the two case studies with consistent trends between Ne and Nc , FIS was more stable over time and lower, suggesting FIS may be a good indicator that the population was sampled at a spatial scale at which genetic structure is not biasing estimates of Ne . These results suggest that more empirical work on the estimation of Ne in continuous populations is needed to understand the appropriate context to use LDNe as a useful metric in a monitoring programme to detect temporal trends in either Ne or Nc .

A massive tsunami promoted gene flow and increased genetic diversity in a near threatened plant species

The magnitude and frequency of disturbances affect species diversity and spatial distributions, but the direct effects of large-scale disturbances on genetic diversity are poorly understood. On March 11, 2011, the Great Tohoku Earthquake in Japan caused a massive tsunami that resulted in substantial alteration of community compositions. Populations of a near-threatened tidal marsh Carex rugulosa inhabiting brackish sandbars was also affected. We found four out of six remnant C. rugulosa populations along the Pacific Ocean had become completely extinct. Newly emergent post-tsunami populations, however, had higher allelic numbers than pre-tsunami populations, indicating higher genetic diversity after the tsunami. In addition, genetic differentiation (Fst) between post-tsunami populations was significantly lower than that of pre-tsunami populations. We therefore conclude that the tsunami enhanced gene flow. Seeds of many Carex species persist for long periods in soil, which suggests that seed banks are important genetic resources for post-disturbance recovery of genetic diversity. When its brackish sandbar habitat is no longer subject to disturbance and changes to the land, C. rugulosa is outcompeted by terrestrial plant competitors and eliminated. Disturbance is a driving force for the recovery and maintenance of populations of species such as C. rugulosa—even after near-complete eradication.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity inN. stellatus Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species’ abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well‐understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance‐induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.