Population genetic structure of a common host predicts the spread of white-nose syndrome, an emerging infectious disease in bats

Impact of putatively beneficial genomic loci on gene expression in little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus, Le Conte, 1831) affected by white-nose syndrome

Genome-wide scans for selection have become a popular tool for investigating evolutionary responses in wildlife to emerging diseases. However, genome scans are susceptible to false positives and do little to demonstrate specific mechanisms by which loci impact survival. Linking putatively resistant genotypes to observable phenotypes increases confidence in genome scan results and provides evidence of survival mechanisms that can guide conservation and management efforts. Here we used an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis to uncover relationships between gene expression and alleles associated with the survival of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) despite infection with the causative agent of white-nose syndrome. We found that 25 of the 63 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with survival were related to gene expression in wing tissue. The differentially expressed genes have functional annotations associated with the innate immune system, metabolism, circadian rhythms, and the cellular response to stress. In addition, we observed differential expression of multiple genes with survival implications related to loci in linkage disequilibrium with focal SNPs. Together, these findings support the selective function of these loci and suggest that part of the mechanism driving survival may be the alteration of immune and other responses in epithelial tissue.

COULD WHITE-NOSE SYNDROME MANIFEST DIFFERENTLY IN MYOTIS LUCIFUGUS IN WESTERN VERSUS EASTERN REGIONS OF NORTH AMERICA? A REVIEW OF FACTORS

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has notably affected the abundance of Myotis lucifugus (little brown myotis) in North America. Thus far, substantial mortality has been restricted to the eastern part of the continent where the cause of WNS, the invasive fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, has infected bats since 2006. To date, the state of Washington is the only area in the Western US or Canada (the Rocky Mountains and further west in North America) with confirmed cases of WNS in bats, and there the disease has spread more slowly than it did in Eastern North America. Here, we review differences between M. lucifugus in western and eastern parts of the continent that may affect transmission, spread, and severity of WNS in the West and highlight important gaps in knowledge. We explore the hypothesis that western M. lucifugus may respond differently to WNS on the basis of different hibernation strategies, habitat use, and greater genetic structure. To document the effect of WNS on M. lucifugus in the West most effectively, we recommend focusing on maternity roosts for strategic disease surveillance and monitoring abundance. We further recommend continuing the challenging work of identifying hibernation and swarming sites to better understand the microclimates, microbial communities, and role in disease transmission of these sites, as well as the ecology and hibernation physiology of bats in noncavernous hibernacula.

Phylogenetic analyses reveal bat communities in Northwestern Mexico harbor a high diversity of novel cryptic ectoparasite species

Parasites are integral parts of ecosystem function and important drivers of evolutionary processes. Characterizing ectoparasite diversity is fundamental to studies of host-parasite interactions, evolution, and conservation, and also for understanding emerging disease threats for some vector borne pathogens. With more than 1400 species, bats represent the second most speciose mammalian clade, but their ectoparasite fauna are poorly known for most species. We sequenced mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase C subunit I and nuclear 18S ribosomal gene fragments, and used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to characterize ectoparasite taxon identity and diversity for 17 species of parasitized bats sampled along the Baja California peninsula and in Northwestern Mexico. The sequence data revealed multiple novel lineages of bat bugs (Cimicidae), flies (Nycteribiidae and Streblidae), and ticks (Argasidae). Within families, the new linages showed more than 10% sequence divergence, which is consistent with separation at least at the species level. Both families of bat flies showed host specificity, particularly on Myotis species. We also identified new records for the Baja peninsula of one tick (Carios kelleyi), and of five Streblid bat fly species. One Nycteribiid bat fly haplotype from Pallid bat (Antrozous pallidus) hosts was found throughout the peninsula, suggesting potential long distance co-dispersal with hosts. Different bat bug and tick communities were found in the north and south of the peninsula. This study is the first systematic survey of bat ectoparasites in the Baja California peninsula, revealing novel lineages that are highly genetically differentiated from other parts of North America. For some ectoparasite species, haplotype distributions may reflect patterns of bat migration. This work is a first step in characterizing ectoparasite diversity over the Baja California peninsula, and understanding how ecological and evolutionary interactions shape bat ectoparasite communities among host species in different parts of their ranges.

Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030

White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006-2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the current and predicting the future status and trends of bat species. We developed a model of disease spread that simultaneously achieves high-predictive performance, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We modeled white-nose syndrome spread using Gaussian process variations to infer the spread rate of the disease front, identify areas of anomalous time of arrival, and provide future forecasts of the expected time of arrival throughout North America. Cross-validation of model predictive performance identified a stationary Gaussian process without an additional residual error process as the best-supported model. Results indicated that white-nose syndrome is likely to spread throughout the entire continental United States by 2030. These annually updatable model predictions will be useful in determining the horizon over which disease management actions must take place as well as in status and trend assessments of disease-affected bats.

Widespread occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ontario, Canada, and predicted habitat suitability for the emerging Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, is associated with massive amphibian mortality events worldwide and with some species’ extinctions. Previous ecological niche models suggest that B. dendrobatidis is not well‐suited to northern, temperate climates, but these predictions have often relied on datasets in which northern latitudes are underrepresented. Recent northern detections of B. dendrobatidis suggest that these models may have underestimated the suitability of higher latitudes for this fungus. We used qPCR to test for B. dendrobatidis in 1,041 non‐invasive epithelial swab samples from 18 species of amphibians collected across 735,345 km² in Ontario and Akimiski Island (Nunavut), Canada. We detected the pathogen in 113 samples (10.9%) from 11 species. Only one specimen exhibited potential clinical signs of disease. We used these data to produce six Species Distribution Models of B. dendrobatidis, which classified half of the study area as potential habitat for the fungus. We also tested each sample for B. salamandrivorans, an emerging pathogen that is causing alarming declines in European salamanders, but is not yet detected in North America. We did not detect B. salamandrivorans in any of the samples, providing a baseline for future surveillance. We assessed the potential risk of future introduction by comparing salamander richness to temperature‐dependent mortality, predicted by a previous exposure study. Areas with the highest species diversity and predicted mortality risk extended 60,530 km² across southern Ontario, highlighting the potential threat B. salamandrivorans poses to northern Nearctic amphibians. Preventing initial introduction will require coordinated, transboundary regulation of trade in amphibians (including frogs that can carry and disperse B. salamandrivorans), and surveillance of the pathways of introduction (e.g., water and wildlife). Our results can inform surveillance for both pathogens and efforts to mitigate the spread of chytridiomycosis through wild populations.

Host traits and environment interact to determine persistence of bat populations impacted by white-nose syndrome

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilisation for unknown reasons. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognised as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant bat populations a decade after they declined 70-99% due to white-nose syndrome and subsequently stabilised. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

The Milieu Souterrain Superficiel as hibernation habitat for bats: implications for white-nose syndrome

Recent studies have revealed that western populations of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) in North America exhibit different hibernation behavior than their eastern counterparts. Understanding these differences is essential for assessing the risk white-nose syndrome (WNS) poses to western bat populations. We used acoustic monitoring and radiotelemetry to study the overwintering behavior of little brown bats near Juneau, Alaska during 2011-2014. Our objectives were to identify the structures they use for hibernation, measure the microclimates within those structures, and determine the timing of immergence and emergence and the length of the hibernation season. We radiotracked 10 little brown bats to underground hibernacula dispersed along two ridge systems. All hibernacula were ≤ 24.2 km from where the bats were captured. Eight bats hibernated in the "Milieu Souterrain Superficiel" (MSS), a network of air-filled underground voids between the rock fragments found in scree (talus) deposits. Two bats hibernated in holes in the soil beneath the root system of a tree or stump (rootball). At least two hibernacula in the MSS were reused in subsequent years. Average MSS and rootball temperatures were warmer and more stable than ambient temperature and were well below the optimal growth range of the fungus that causes WNS. Temperatures in the MSS dropped below freezing, but MSS temperatures increased with depth, indicating bats could avoid subfreezing temperatures by moving deeper into the MSS. Relative humidity (RH) approached 100% in the MSS and under rootballs and was more stable than ambient RH, which also was high, but dropped substantially during periods of extreme cold. Acoustic monitoring revealed that bats hibernated by late October and began emerging by the second week of April; estimates of minimum length of the hibernation season ranged from 156 to 190 days. The cold temperatures, dispersed nature of the hibernacula, and close proximity of hibernacula to summering areas may slow the spread and reduce the impacts of WNS on local populations of little brown bats.

The presence of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, a fungal pathogen of bats, correlates with changes in microbial metacommunity structure

Metacommunity theory provides a framework for how community patterns arise from processes across scales, which is relevant for understanding patterns in host-associated microbial assemblages. Microbial metacommunities may have important roles in host health through interactions with pathogens; however, it is unclear how pathogens affect host microbial metacommunities. Here, we studied relationships between a fungal pathogen and a host-associated microbial metacommunity. We hypothesized that a fungal pathogen of bats, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, correlates with a shift in metacommunity structure and changes in relationships between community composition, and factors shaping these assemblages, such as ecoregion. We sampled bat cutaneous microbial assemblages in the presence/absence of P. destructans and analyzed microbial metacommunity composition and relationships with structuring variables. Absence of P. destructans correlated with a metacommunity characterized by a common core microbial group that was lacking in disease positive bats. Additionally, P. destructans presence correlated with a change in the relationship between community structure and ecoregion. Our results suggest that the fungal pathogen intensifies local processes influencing a microbial metacommunity and highlights the importance of cutaneous microbial assemblages in host-pathogen interactions.

Ecology and impacts of white-nose syndrome on bats

The recent introduction of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats) from Eurasia to North America has resulted in the collapse of North American bat populations and restructured species communities. The long evolutionary history between P. destructans and bats in Eurasia makes understanding host life history essential to uncovering the ecology of P. destructans. In this Review, we combine information on pathogen and host biology to understand the patterns of P. destructans spread, seasonal transmission ecology, the pathogenesis of white-nose syndrome and the cross-scale impact from individual hosts to ecosystems. Collectively, this research highlights how early pathogen detection and quantification of host impacts has accelerated the understanding of this newly emerging infectious disease.

Mobility and infectiousness in the spatial spread of an emerging fungal pathogen

Emerging infectious diseases can have devastating effects on host communities, causing population collapse and species extinctions. The timing of novel pathogen arrival into naïve species communities can have consequential effects that shape the trajectory of epidemics through populations. Pathogen introductions are often presumed to occur when hosts are highly mobile. However, spread patterns can be influenced by a multitude of other factors including host body condition and infectiousness. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a seasonal emerging infectious disease of bats, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Within-site transmission of P. destructans primarily occurs over winter; however, the influence of bat mobility and infectiousness on the seasonal timing of pathogen spread to new populations is unknown. We combined data on host population dynamics and pathogen transmission from 22 bat communities to investigate the timing of pathogen arrival and the consequences of varying pathogen arrival times on disease impacts. We found that midwinter arrival of the fungus predominated spread patterns, suggesting that bats were most likely to spread P. destructans when they are highly infectious, but have reduced mobility. In communities where P. destructans was detected in early winter, one species suffered higher fungal burdens and experienced more severe declines than at sites where the pathogen was detected later in the winter, suggesting that the timing of pathogen introduction had consequential effects for some bat communities. We also found evidence of source-sink population dynamics over winter, suggesting some movement among sites occurs during hibernation, even though bats at northern latitudes were thought to be fairly immobile during this period. Winter emergence behaviour symptomatic of white-nose syndrome may further exacerbate these winter bat movements to uninfected areas. Our results suggest that low infectiousness during host migration may have reduced the rate of expansion of this deadly pathogen, and that elevated infectiousness during winter plays a key role in seasonal transmission. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of both accurate estimation of the timing of pathogen spread and the consequences of varying arrival times to prevent and mitigate the effects of infectious diseases.

Population structure, gene flow and relatedness of Natterer’s bats in Northern England

There have been significant declines in population numbers of many bat species in the United Kingdom, including Natterer’s batsMyotis nattereri, over the last century, largely due to anthropogenic changes. The philopatry, which temperate-zone bats often exhibit to their natal landscapes, in combination with anthropogenic threats, can lead to fragmentation, isolation and sub-division of populations. This may result in bottlenecks and declines in genetic diversity. Multi-scaled research is required to disentangle how the variation in the physical traits of bat species (e.g. affecting flight), as well as their social and behavioural traits (e.g. community size, migration, breeding systems), may affect the genetic health of populations and provide a potential buffer against fragmentation. We used microsatellite markers to characterise the genetic diversity and population structure present in Natterer’s bat colonies to determine whether summer roosting bat colonies were spatially differentiated or part of a meta-population. Analyses of population structure and measures of genetic relatedness suggest spatially differentiated populations of bats exhibit long term site fidelity to summer roosting sites, whilst high genetic diversity at sites indicates gene exchange occurs via swarming sites. Natterer’s bats in northern England may travel greater distances to swarming sites than has been previously documented.

Genomic signatures of selection in bats surviving white-nose syndrome

Rapid evolution of advantageous traits following abrupt environmental change can help populations recover from demographic decline. However, for many introduced diseases affecting longer-lived, slower reproducing hosts, mortality is likely to outpace the acquisition of adaptive de novo mutations. Adaptive alleles must therefore be selected from standing genetic variation, a process that leaves few detectable genomic signatures. Here, we present whole genome evidence for selection in bat populations that are recovering from white-nose syndrome (WNS). We collected samples both during and after a WNS-induced mass mortality event in two little brown bat populations that are beginning to show signs of recovery and found signatures of soft sweeps from standing genetic variation at multiple loci throughout the genome. We identified one locus putatively under selection in a gene associated with the immune system. Multiple loci putatively under selection were located within genes previously linked to host response to WNS as well as to changes in metabolism during hibernation. Results from two additional populations suggested that loci under selection may differ somewhat among populations. Through these findings, we suggest that WNS-induced selection may contribute to genetic resistance in this slowly reproducing species threatened with extinction.

Comparative landscape genetics reveals differential effects of environment on host and pathogen genetic structure in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) and their transmissible tumour

Genetic structure in host species is often used to predict disease spread. However, host and pathogen genetic variation may be incongruent. Understanding landscape factors that have either concordant or divergent influence on host and pathogen genetic structure is crucial for wildlife disease management. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) was first observed in 1996 and has spread throughout almost the entire Tasmanian devil geographic range, causing dramatic population declines. Whereas DFTD is predominantly spread via biting among adults, devils typically disperse as juveniles, which experience low DFTD prevalence. Thus, we predicted little association between devil and tumour population structure and that environmental factors influencing gene flow differ between devils and tumours. We employed a comparative landscape genetics framework to test the influence of environmental factors on patterns of isolation by resistance (IBR) and isolation by environment (IBE) in devils and DFTD. Although we found evidence for broad-scale costructuring between devils and tumours, we found no relationship between host and tumour individual genetic distances. Further, the factors driving the spatial distribution of genetic variation differed for each. Devils exhibited a strong IBR pattern driven by major roads, with no evidence of IBE. By contrast, tumours showed little evidence for IBR and a weak IBE pattern with respect to elevation in one of two tumour clusters we identify herein. Our results warrant caution when inferring pathogen spread using host population genetic structure and suggest that reliance on environmental barriers to host connectivity may be ineffective for managing the spread of wildlife diseases. Our findings demonstrate the utility of comparative landscape genetics for identifying differential factors driving host dispersal and pathogen transmission.

Population Connectivity Predicts Vulnerability to White-Nose Syndrome in the Chilean Myotis (Myotis chiloensis) - A Genomics Approach

Despite its peculiar distribution, the biology of the southernmost bat species in the world, the Chilean myotis (Myotis chiloensis), has garnered little attention so far. The species has a north-south distribution of c. 2800 km, mostly on the eastern side of the Andes mountain range. Use of extended torpor occurs in the southernmost portion of the range, putting the species at risk of bat white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease responsible for massive population declines in North American bats. Here, we examined how geographic distance and topology would be reflected in the population structure of M. chiloensis along the majority of its range using a double digestion RAD-seq method. We sampled 66 individuals across the species range and discovered pronounced isolation-by-distance. Furthermore, and surprisingly, we found higher degrees of heterozygosity in the southernmost populations compared to the north. A coalescence analysis revealed that our populations may still not have reached secondary contact after the Last Glacial Maximum. As for the potential spread of pathogens, such as the fungus causing WNS, connectivity among populations was noticeably low, especially between the southern hibernatory populations in the Magallanes and Tierra del Fuego, and more northerly populations. This suggests the probability of geographic spread of the disease from the north through bat-to-bat contact to susceptible populations is low. The study presents a rare case of defined population structure in a bat species and warrants further research on the underlying factors contributing to this. See the graphical abstract here. https://doi.org/10.25387/g3.12173385

Genome-Wide Changes in Genetic Diversity in a Population of Myotis lucifugus Affected by White-Nose Syndrome

Novel pathogens can cause massive declines in populations, and even extirpation of hosts. But disease can also act as a selective pressure on survivors, driving the evolution of resistance or tolerance. Bat white-nose syndrome (WNS) is a rapidly spreading wildlife disease in North America. The fungus causing the disease invades skin tissues of hibernating bats, resulting in disruption of hibernation behavior, premature energy depletion, and subsequent death. We used whole-genome sequencing to investigate changes in allele frequencies within a population of Myotis lucifugus in eastern North America to search for genetic resistance to WNS. Our results show low F_ST values within the population across time, i.e., prior to WNS (Pre-WNS) compared to the population that has survived WNS (Post-WNS). However, when dividing the population with a geographical cut-off between the states of Pennsylvania and New York, a sharp increase in values on scaffold GL429776 is evident in the Post-WNS samples. Genes present in the diverged area are associated with thermoregulation and promotion of brown fat production. Thus, although WNS may not have subjected the entire M. lucifugus population to selective pressure, it may have selected for specific alleles in Pennsylvania through decreased gene flow within the population. However, the persistence of remnant sub-populations in the aftermath of WNS is likely due to multiple factors in bat life history.

Decimated little brown bats show potential for adaptive change

The degree to which species can rapidly adapt is key to survival in the face of climatic and other anthropogenic changes. For little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), whose populations have experienced declines of over 90% because of the introduced fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS), survival of the species may ultimately depend upon its capacity for adaptive change. Here, we present evidence of selectively driven change (adaptation), despite dramatic nonadaptive genomic shifts (genetic drift) associated with population declines. We compared the genetic makeups of wild survivors versus non-survivors of WNS, and found significant shifts in allele frequencies of genes associated with regulating arousal from hibernation (GABARB1), breakdown of fats (cGMP-PK1), and vocalizations (FOXP2). Changes at these genes are suggestive of evolutionary adaptation, given that WNS causes bats to arouse with unusual frequency from hibernation, contributing to premature depletion of fat reserves. However, whether these putatively adaptive shifts in allele frequencies translate into sufficient increases in survival for the species to rebound in the face of WNS is unknown.

Population genetics of fruit bat reservoir informs the dynamics, distribution and diversity of Nipah virus

The structure and connectivity of wildlife host populations may influence zoonotic disease dynamics, evolution and therefore spillover risk to people. Fruit bats in the genus Pteropus, or flying foxes, are the primary natural reservoir for henipaviruses-a group of emerging paramyxoviruses that threaten livestock and public health. In Bangladesh, Pteropus medius is the reservoir for Nipah virus-and viral spillover has led to human fatalities nearly every year since 2001. Here, we use mitochondrial DNA and nuclear microsatellite markers to measure the population structure, demographic history and phylogeography of P. medius in Bangladesh. We combine this with a phylogeographic analysis of all known Nipah virus sequences and strains currently available to better inform the dynamics, distribution and evolutionary history of Nipah virus. We show that P. medius is primarily panmictic, but combined analysis of microsatellite and morphological data shows evidence for differentiation of two populations in eastern Bangladesh, corresponding to a divergent strain of Nipah virus also found in bats from eastern Bangladesh. Our demographic analyses indicate that a large, expanding population of flying foxes has existed in Bangladesh since the Late Pleistocene, coinciding with human population expansion in South Asia, suggesting repeated historical spillover of Nipah virus likely occurred. We present the first evidence of mitochondrial introgression, or hybridization, between P. medius and flying fox species found in South-East Asia (P. vampyrus and P. hypomelanus), which may help to explain the distribution of Nipah virus strains across the region.

A review of bat hibernacula across the western United States: Implications for white-nose syndrome surveillance and management

Efforts to conserve bats in the western United States have long been impeded by a lack of information on their winter whereabouts, particularly bats in the genus Myotis. The recent arrival of white-nose syndrome in western North America has increased the urgency to characterize winter roost habitats in this region. We compiled 4,549 winter bat survey records from 2,888 unique structures across 11 western states. Myotis bats were reported from 18.5% of structures with 95% of aggregations composed of ≤10 individuals. Only 11 structures contained ≥100 Myotis individuals and 6 contained ≥500 individuals. Townsend’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus townsendii) were reported from 38% of structures, with 72% of aggregations composed of ≤10 individuals. Aggregations of ≥100 Townsend’s big-eared bats were observed at 41 different caves or mines across 9 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to explore biogeographic patterns of winter roost counts. Myotis counts were greater in caves than mines, in more recent years, and in more easterly longitudes, northerly latitudes, higher elevations, and in areas with higher surface temperatures and lower precipitation. Townsend’s big-eared bat counts were greater in caves, during more recent years, and in more westerly longitudes. Karst topography was associated with higher Townsend’s big-eared bat counts but did not appear to influence Myotis counts. We found stable or slightly-increasing trends over time in counts for both Myotis and Townsend’s big-eared bats from 82 hibernacula surveyed ≥5 winters since 1990. Highly-dispersed winter roosting of Myotis in the western USA complicates efforts to monitor population trends and impacts of disease. However, our results reveal opportunities to monitor winter population status of Townsend’s big-eared bats across this region.

Resistance in persisting bat populations after white-nose syndrome invasion

Increases in anthropogenic movement have led to a rise in pathogen introductions and the emergence of infectious diseases in naive host communities worldwide. We combined empirical data and mathematical models to examine changes in disease dynamics in little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) populations following the introduction of the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, which causes the disease white-nose syndrome. We found that infection intensity was much lower in persisting populations than in declining populations where the fungus has recently invaded. Fitted models indicate that this is most consistent with a reduction in the growth rate of the pathogen when fungal loads become high. The data are inconsistent with the evolution of tolerance or an overall reduced pathogen growth rate that might be caused by environmental factors. The existence of resistance in some persisting populations of little brown bats offers a glimmer of hope that a precipitously declining species will persist in the face of this deadly pathogen.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Prelude to a panzootic: Gene flow and immunogenetic variation in northern little brown myotis vulnerable to bat white-nose syndrome

The fungus that causes bat white-nose syndrome (WNS) recently leaped from eastern North America to the Pacific Coast. The pathogen’s spread is associated with the genetic population structure of a host ( Myotis lucifugus). To understand the fine-scale neutral and immunogenetic variation among northern populations of M. lucifugus, we sampled 1142 individuals across the species’ northern range. We used genotypes at 11 microsatellite loci to reveal the genetic structure of, and directional gene flow among, populations to predict the likely future spread of the pathogen in the northwest and to estimate effective population size ( Ne). We also pyrosequenced the DRB1-like exon 2 of the class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in 160 individuals to explore immunogenetic selection by WNS. We identified three major neutral genetic clusters: Eastern, Montane Cordillera (and adjacent sampling areas), and Haida Gwaii, with admixture at intermediate areas and significant substructure west of the prairies. Estimates of Ne were unexpectedly low (289–16 000). Haida Gwaii may provide temporary refuge from WNS, but the western mountain ranges are not barriers to its dispersal in M. lucifugus and are unlikely to slow its spread. Our major histocompatibility complex (MHC) data suggest potential selection by WNS on the MHC, but gene duplication limited the immunogenetic analyses.

Will reduced host connectivity curb the spread of a devastating epidemic?

The white-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is threatening the cave-dwelling bat fauna of North America by killing individuals by the thousands in hibernacula each winter since its appearance in New York State less than ten years ago. Epidemiological models predict that WNS will reach the western coast of the USA by 2035, potentially eliminating most populations of susceptible bat species in its path (Frick et al. 2015; O'Regan et al. 2015). These models were built and validated using distributional data from the early years of the epidemic, which spread throughout eastern North America following a route driven by cave density and winter severity (Maher et al. 2012). In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Wilder et al. (2015) refine these findings by showing that connectivity among host populations, as assessed by population genetic markers, is crucial in determining the spread of the pathogen. Because host connectivity is much reduced in the hitherto disease free western half of North America, Wilder et al. make the reassuring prediction that the disease will spread more slowly west of the Great Plains.