Expansion history and environmental suitability shape effective population size in a plant invasion

Multiple introductions of divergent lineages and admixture conferred the high invasiveness in a widespread weed (Hypochaeris radicata)

Biological invasion consists of spatially and temporally varying stages, accompanied by ecological and evolutionary changes. Understanding the genomics underlying invasion dynamics provides critical insights into the geographic sources and genetic diversity, contributing to successful invasions across space and time. Here, we used genomic data and model-based approaches to characterize the invasion dynamics of Hypochaeris radicata L., a noxious weed in Korea. Genetic diversity and assignment patterns were investigated using 3563 SNPs of 283 individuals sampled from 22 populations. We employed a coalescent-based simulation method to estimate demographic changes for each population and inferred colonization history using both phylogenetic and population genetic model-based approaches. Our data suggest that H. radicata has been repeatedly been introduced to Korea from multiple genetic sources within the last 50 years, experiencing weak population bottlenecks followed by subsequent population expansions. These findings highlight the potential for further range expansion, particularly in the presence of human-mediated dispersal. Our study represents the first population-level genomic research documenting the invasion dynamics of the successful worldwide invader, H. radicata, outside of Europe.

Genome size variation and evolution during invasive range expansion in an introduced plant

Plants demonstrate exceptional variation in genome size across species, and their genome sizes can also vary dramatically across individuals and populations within species. This aspect of genetic variation can have consequences for traits and fitness, but few studies attributed genome size differentiation to ecological and evolutionary processes. Biological invasions present particularly useful natural laboratories to infer selective agents that might drive genome size shifts across environments and population histories. Here, we test hypotheses for the evolutionary causes of genome size variation across 14 invading populations of yellow starthistle, Centaurea solstitialis, in California, United States. We use a survey of genome sizes and trait variation to ask: (1) Is variation in genome size associated with developmental trait variation? (2) Are genome sizes smaller toward the leading edge of the expansion, consistent with selection for "colonizer" traits? Or alternatively, does genome size increase toward the leading edge of the expansion, consistent with predicted consequences of founder effects and drift? (3) Finally, are genome sizes smaller at higher elevations, consistent with selection for shorter development times? We found that 2C DNA content varied 1.21-fold among all samples, and was associated with flowering time variation, such that plants with larger genomes reproduced later, with lower lifetime capitula production. Genome sizes increased toward the leading edge of the invasion, but tended to decrease at higher elevations, consistent with genetic drift during range expansion but potentially strong selection for smaller genomes and faster development time at higher elevations. These results demonstrate how genome size variation can contribute to traits directly tied to reproductive success, and how selection and drift can shape that variation. We highlight the influence of genome size on dynamics underlying a rapid range expansion in a highly problematic invasive plant.

Megafaunal extinctions, not climate change, may explain Holocene genetic diversity declines in Numenius shorebirds

Understanding the relative contributions of historical and anthropogenic factors to declines in genetic diversity is important for informing conservation action. Using genome-wide DNA of fresh and historic specimens, including that of two species widely thought to be extinct, we investigated fluctuations in genetic diversity and present the first complete phylogenomic tree for all nine species of the threatened shorebird genus Numenius, known as whimbrels and curlews. Most species faced sharp declines in effective population size, a proxy for genetic diversity, soon after the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago). These declines occurred prior to the Anthropocene and in spite of an increase in the breeding area predicted by environmental niche modeling, suggesting that they were not caused by climatic or recent anthropogenic factors. Crucially, these genetic diversity declines coincide with mass extinctions of mammalian megafauna in the Northern Hemisphere. Among other factors, the demise of ecosystem-engineering megafauna which maintained open habitats may have been detrimental for grassland and tundra-breeding Numenius shorebirds. Our work suggests that the impact of historical factors such as megafaunal extinction may have had wider repercussions on present-day population dynamics of open habitat biota than previously appreciated.

Demographic histories shape population genomics of the common coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus)

Many coral reef fishes display remarkable genetic and phenotypic variation across their geographic ranges. Understanding how historical and contemporary processes have shaped these patterns remains a focal question in evolutionary biology since they reveal how diversity is generated and how it may respond to future environmental change. Here, we compare the population genomics and demographic histories of a commercially and ecologically important coral reef fish, the common coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus [Lacépède 1802]), across two adjoining regions (the Great Barrier Reef; GBR, and the Coral Sea, Australia) spanning approximately 14 degrees of latitude and 9 degrees of longitude. We analysed 4548 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers across 11 sites and show that genetic connectivity between regions is low, despite their relative proximity (~100 km) and an absence of any obvious geographic barrier. Inferred demographic histories using 10,479 markers suggest that the Coral Sea population was founded by a small number of GBR individuals and that divergence occurred ~190 kya under a model of isolation with asymmetric migration. We detected population expansions in both regions, but estimates of contemporary effective population sizes were approximately 50% smaller in Coral Sea sites, which also had lower genetic diversity. Our results suggest that P. leopardus in the Coral Sea have experienced a long period of isolation that precedes the recent glacial period (~10-120 kya) and may be vulnerable to localized disturbances due to their relative reliance on local larval replenishment. While it is difficult to determine the underlying events that led to the divergence of the Coral Sea and GBR lineages, we show that even geographically proximate populations of a widely dispersed coral reef fish can have vastly different evolutionary histories.

The reconstruction of invasion histories with genomic data in light of differing levels of anthropogenic transport

Unravelling the history of range shifts is key for understanding past, current and future species distributions. Anthropogenic transport of species alters natural dispersal patterns and directly affects population connectivity. Studies have suggested that high levels of anthropogenic transport homogenize patterns of genetic differentiation and blur colonization pathways. However, empirical evidence of these effects remains elusive. We compared two range-shifting species (Microcosmus squamiger and Ciona robusta) to examine how anthropogenic transport affects our ability to reconstruct colonization pathways using genomic data. We first investigated shipping networks from the 18th century onwards, cross-referencing these with regions where the species have records to infer how each species has potentially been affected by different levels of anthropogenic transport. We then genotyped thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 280 M. squamiger and 190 C. robusta individuals collected across their extensive species' ranges and reconstructed colonization pathways. Differing levels of anthropogenic transport did not preclude the elucidation of population structure, though specific inferences of colonization pathways were difficult to discern in some of the considered scenario sets. We conclude that genomic data in combination with information of underlying introduction drivers provide key insights into the historic spread of range-shifting species.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)’.

The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science.

Testing for evolutionary change in restoration: A genomic comparison between ex situ, native, and commercial seed sources of Helianthus maximiliani

Globally imperiled ecosystems often depend upon collection, propagation, and storage of seed material for use in restoration. However, during the restoration process demographic changes, population bottlenecks, and selection can alter the genetic composition of seed material, with potential impacts for restoration success. The evolutionary outcomes associated with these processes have been demonstrated using theoretical and experimental frameworks, but no study to date has examined their impact on the seed material maintained for conservation and restoration. In this study, we compare genomic variation across seed sources used in conservation and restoration for the perennial prairie plant Helianthus maximiliani, a key component of restorations across North American grasslands. We compare individuals sourced from contemporary wild populations, ex situ conservation collections, commercially produced restoration material, and two populations selected for agronomic traits. Overall, we observed that ex situ and contemporary wild populations exhibited similar genomic composition, while four of five commercial populations and selected lines were differentiated from each other and other seed source populations. Genomic differences across seed sources could not be explained solely by isolation by distance nor directional selection. We did find evidence of sampling effects for ex situ collections, which exhibited significantly increased coancestry relative to commercial populations, suggesting increased relatedness. Interestingly, commercially sourced seed appeared to maintain an increased number of rare alleles relative to ex situ and wild contemporary seed sources. However, while commercial seed populations were not genetically depauperate, the genomic distance between wild and commercially produced seed suggests differentiation in the genomic composition could impact restoration success. Our results point toward the importance of genetic monitoring of seed sources used for conservation and restoration as they are expected to be influenced by the evolutionary processes that contribute to divergence during the restoration process.

The different fates of two Asian horseshoe crab species with different dispersal abilities

Impending anthropogenic climate change will severely impact coastal organisms at unprecedented speed. Knowledge on organisms' evolutionary responses to past sea-level fluctuations and estimation of their evolutionary potential is therefore indispensable in efforts to mitigate the effects of future climate change. We sampled tens of thousands of genomic markers of ~300 individuals in two of the four extant horseshoe crab species across the complex archipelagic Singapore Straits. Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda Latreille, a less mobile mangrove species, has finer population structure and lower genetic diversity compared with the dispersive deep-sea Tachypleus gigas Müller. Even though the source populations of both species during the last glacial maximum exhibited comparable effective population sizes, the less dispersive C. rotundicauda seems to lose genetic diversity much more quickly because of population fragmentation. Contra previous studies' results, we predict that the more commonly sighted C. rotundicauda faces a more uncertain conservation plight, with a continuing loss in evolutionary potential and higher vulnerability to future climate change. Our study provides important genomic baseline data for the redirection of conservation measures in the face of climate change and can be used as a blueprint for assessment and mitigation of the adverse effects of impending sea-level rise in other systems.

Climate-induced range shifts shaped the present and threaten the future genetic variability of a marine brown alga in the Northwest Pacific

Glaciation-induced environmental changes during the last glacial maximum (LGM) have strongly influenced species' distributions and genetic diversity patterns in the northern high latitudes. However, these effects have seldom been assessed on sessile species in the Northwest Pacific. Herein, we chose the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii to test this hypothesis, by comparing present population genetic variability with inferred geographical range shifts from the LGM to the present, estimated with species distribution modelling (SDM). Projections for contrasting scenarios of future climate change were also developed to anticipate genetic diversity losses at regional scales. Results showed that S. thunbergii harbours strikingly rich genetic diversity and multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range of its distribution, in contrast with a poorer genetically distinct lineage in the southern range. SDM hindcasted refugial persistence in the southern range during the LGM as well as post-LGM expansion of 18 degrees of latitude northward. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis further suggested that the multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range limit stem from post-LGM colonization from the southern survived lineage. This suggests divergence due to demographic bottlenecks during range expansion and massive genetic diversity loss during post-LGM contraction in the south. The projected future range of S. thunbergii highlights the threat to unique gene pools that might be lost under global changes.

Genomic data support multiple introductions and explosive demographic expansions in a highly invasive aquatic insect

The study of the genetic makeup and demographic fate of alien species is essential to understand their capacity to recover from founder effects, adapt to new environmental conditions and, ultimately, become invasive and potentially damaging. Here, we employ genomic data to gain insights into key demographic processes that might help to explain the extraordinarily successful invasion of the Western Mediterranean region by the North American boatman Trichocorixa verticalis (Hemiptera: Corixidae). Our analyses revealed the genetic distinctiveness of populations from the main areas comprising the invasive range and coalescent-based simulations supported that they originated from independent introductions events probably involving different source populations. Testing of alternative demographic models indicated that all populations experienced a strong bottleneck followed by a recent and instantaneous demographic expansion that restored a large portion (>30%) of their ancestral effective population sizes shortly after introductions took place (<60 years ago). Considerable genetic admixture of some populations suggest that hypothetical barriers to dispersal (i.e., land and sea water) are permeable to gene flow and/or that they originated from introductions involving multiple lineages. This study demonstrates the repeated arrival of propagules with different origins and short time lags between arrival and establishment, emphasizing the extraordinary capacity of the species to recover from founder effects and genetically admix in invaded areas. This can explain the demonstrated capacity of this aquatic insect to spread and outcompete native species once it colonizes new suitable regions. Future genomic analyses of native range populations could help to infer the genetic makeup of introduced populations and track invasion routes.

Demographic history and local adaptation of Myripnois dioica (Asteraceae) provide insight on plant evolution in northern China flora

The flora of northern China forms the main part of the Sino-Japanese floristic region and is located in a south-north vegetative transect in East Asia. Phylogeographic studies have demonstrated that an arid belt in this region has promoted divergence of plants in East Asia. However, little is known about how plants that are restricted to the arid belt of flora in northern China respond to climatic oscillation and environmental change. Here, we used genomic-level data of Myripnois dioica across its distribution as a representative of northern China flora to reconstruct plant demographic history, examine local adaptation related to environmental disequilibrium, and investigate the factors related to effective population size change. Our results indicate M. dioica originated from the northern area and expanded to the southern area, with the Taihang Mountains serving as a physical barrier promoting population divergence. Genome-wide evidence found strong correlation between genomic variation and environmental factors, specifically signatures associated with local adaptation to drought stress in heterogeneous environments. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed joint effects of population age, mean temperature of coldest quarter, and precipitation of wettest month on effective population size (Ne). Our current study uses M. dioica as a case for providing new insights into the evolutionary history and local adaptation of northern China flora and provides qualitative strategies for plant conservation.

The population genetics of nonmigratory Allen's Hummingbird (Selasphorus sasin sedentarius) following a recent mainland colonization

Allen's Hummingbird comprises two subspecies, one migratory (Selasphorus sasin sasin) and one nonmigratory (S. s. sedentarius). The nonmigratory subspecies, previously endemic to the California Channel Islands, apparently colonized the California mainland on the Palos Verdes Peninsula some time before 1970 and now breeds throughout coastal southern California. We sequenced and compared populations of mainland nonmigratory Allen's Hummingbird to Channel Island populations from Santa Catalina, San Clemente, and Santa Cruz Island. We found no evidence of founder effects on the mainland population. Values of nucleotide diversity on the mainland were higher than on the Channel Islands. There were low levels of divergence between the Channel Islands and the mainland, and Santa Cruz Island was the most genetically distinct. Ecological niche models showed that rainfall and temperature variables on the Channel Islands are similar in the Los Angeles basin and predicted continued expansion of nonmigratory Allen's Hummingbird north along the coast and inland. We also reviewed previous genetic studies of vertebrate species found on the Channel Islands and mainland and showed that broad conclusions regarding island-mainland patterns remain elusive. Challenges include the idiosyncratic nature of colonization itself as well as the lack of a comprehensive approach that incorporates similar markers and sampling strategies across taxa, which, within the context of a comparative study of island-mainland relationships, may lead to inconsistent results.

Landscape and Climate Influence the Patterns of Genetic Diversity and Inbreeding in Cerrado Plant Species

The anthropization of the landscape of the Cerrado biome that has occurred over the past few decades has fragmented its natural environments, impacting the connectivity of the plant populations and altering their gene flow. Plant species may also reduce population size in response to sub-optimal climatic and environmental conditions, and observed distribution patterns may align with theoretical schemes, such as the center–periphery model, that is, it is possible that populations on the edge have lower genetic diversity than center populations, theoretically submitted to environmental conditions closer to the optimum. In this context, we evaluate whether the genetic diversity and inbreeding coefficients of Cerrado plant species are affected by landscape features and climate characteristics, and in particular, if the distribution of the genetic diversity of these plants is consistent with the center–periphery model. To do this, we conducted a literature search for genetic studies of Cerrado plant populations using Scopus, Web of Science, and Scielo databases and the species found were used as a proxy to explore patterns throughout the biome. The data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and multiple matrix regressions (MMRRs) to evaluate the effects of landscape features and climatic variables on the observed (HO) and expected heterozygosity (HE), allelic richness (AR) and inbreeding (Fis) patterns of the local populations. The landscape was evaluated in terms of the percentage land cover of agriculture (AG), forestry (FO), remnant vegetation (RV), urban areas (UA), pasture (PA), and water (WA) within buffers of 1 km, 3 km, and 5 km around the study populations. We analyzed 121 populations of 31 plant species. The GLMMs showed that HO was affected by FO regardless of buffer size, while HE was also affected by FO, but also by WA and UA. AR was affected by WA and UA in all three buffer zones while the Fis was affected by FO and AU. The MMRRs showed that WA may affect HO, HE, and Fis within the 1 km buffer, while FO affects HO and UA affects AR within the 5 km buffer. In the case of the 1 km and 3 km buffers, however, the geographic distance between populations was identified as a factor determining the genetic diversity and inbreeding indices, indicating that isolation by distance may be an important factor defining the breeding patterns of the Cerrado plant populations. The GLMMs and MMRRs also showed that the mean annual temperature (MAT) and, to a lesser extent, isothermality (ISO) can explain the variation in genetic diversity observed in the Cerrado plant populations. We also found that the center–periphery model fits the distribution pattern observed in most of the species evaluated, including Annona crassiflora,Annona coriacea, Copaifera langsdorffii, and Eugenia dysenterica. Our results indicate that changes in the climate and the landscape of Brazilian Cerrado must be considered carefully to guarantee minimizing the impacts of these processes on the genetic diversity of Cerrado plant species and ensuring the long-term conservation of these species in this biome.

Deep-Time Demographic Inference Suggests Ecological Release as Driver of Neoavian Adaptive Radiation

Assessing the applicability of theory to major adaptive radiations in deep time represents an extremely difficult problem in evolutionary biology. Neoaves, which includes 95% of living birds, is believed to have undergone a period of rapid diversification roughly coincident with the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. We investigate whether basal neoavian lineages experienced an ecological release in response to ecological opportunity, as evidenced by density compensation. We estimated effective population sizes (Ne) of basal neoavian lineages by combining coalescent branch lengths (CBLs) and the numbers of generations between successive divergences. We used a modified version of Accurate Species TRee Algorithm (ASTRAL) to estimate CBLs directly from insertion–deletion (indel) data, as well as from gene trees using DNA sequence and/or indel data. We found that some divergences near the K-Pg boundary involved unexpectedly high gene tree discordance relative to the estimated number of generations between speciation events. The simplest explanation for this result is an increase in Ne, despite the caveats discussed herein. It appears that at least some early neoavian lineages, similar to the ancestor of the clade comprising doves, mesites, and sandgrouse, experienced ecological release near the time of the K-Pg mass extinction.

Expansion history and environmental suitability shape effective population size in a plant invasion

The margins of an expanding range are predicted to be challenging environments for adaptation. Marginal populations should often experience low effective population sizes (N_e ) where genetic drift is high due to demographic expansion and/or census population size is low due to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, invasive species demonstrate increasing evidence of rapid evolution and potential adaptation to novel environments encountered during colonization, calling into question whether significant reductions in N_e are realized during range expansions in nature. Here we report one of the first empirical tests of the joint effects of expansion dynamics and environment on effective population size variation during invasive range expansion. We estimate contemporary values of N_e using rates of linkage disequilibrium among genome-wide markers within introduced populations of the highly invasive plant Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle) in North America (California, USA), and within native Eurasian populations. As predicted, we find that N_e within the invaded range is positively correlated with both expansion history (time since founding) and habitat quality (abiotic climate). History and climate had independent additive effects with similar effect sizes, indicating an important role for both factors in this invasion. These results support theoretical expectations for the population genetics of range expansion, though whether these processes can ultimately arrest the spread of an invasive species remains an unanswered question.