Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches

Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.

Stress Induces Trait Variability across Multiple Spatial Scales in the Arid Annual Plant Anastatica hierochuntica

Variations in plant characteristics in response to habitat heterogeneity can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms governing plant responses to environmental conditions. In this study, we investigated the role of environmental factors associated with arid conditions in shaping the phenotypic responses of an arid annual plant, Anastatica hierochuntica, across several populations found along an aridity gradient and across multiple spatial scales. Utilizing both field surveys and a net house experiment, we assessed the effects of environmental factors on trait variability within and between populations. The results indicated a significant convergence in plant height due to site aridity, reflecting growth potential based on abiotic resources. Convergence was also observed in the plant's electrolyte leakage with aridity and in plant height concerning soil salinity at specific sites. Phenotypic plasticity was pivotal in maintaining trait variability, with plant height plasticity increasing with soil salinity, SLA plasticity decreasing with aridity, and leaf number plasticity rising with aridity. In conclusion, our findings underscore the adaptive significance of phenotypic variability, especially plasticity, in arid conditions. Notably, trait variability and plasticity did not consistently diminish in stressful settings, emphasizing the adaptive value of flexible responses in such environments.