Does phenology explain plant–pollinator interactions at different latitudes? An assessment of its explanatory power in plant–hoverfly networks in French calcareous grasslands

Predicting plant-pollinator interactions: concepts, methods, and challenges

Plant-pollinator interactions are ecologically and economically important, and, as a result, their prediction is a crucial theoretical and applied goal for ecologists. Although various analytical methods are available, we still have a limited ability to predict plant-pollinator interactions. The predictive ability of different plant-pollinator interaction models depends on the specific definitions used to conceptualize and quantify species attributes (e.g., morphological traits), sampling effects (e.g., detection probabilities), and data resolution and availability. Progress in the study of plant-pollinator interactions requires conceptual and methodological advances concerning the mechanisms and species attributes governing interactions as well as improved modeling approaches to predict interactions. Current methods to predict plant-pollinator interactions present ample opportunities for improvement and spark new horizons for basic and applied research.

Seasonal and elevational changes of plant-pollinator interaction networks in East African mountains

Across an elevation gradient, several biotic and abiotic factors influence community assemblages of interacting species leading to a shift in species distribution, functioning, and ultimately topologies of species interaction networks. However, empirical studies of climate-driven seasonal and elevational changes in plant-pollinator networks are rare, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspots in Kenya, East Africa. We recorded plant-bee interactions at 50 study sites between 515 and 2600 m asl for a full year, following all four major seasons in this region. We analysed elevational and seasonal network patterns using generalised additive models (GAMs) and quantified the influence of climate, floral resource availability, and bee diversity on network structures using a multimodel inference framework. We recorded 16,741 interactions among 186 bee and 314 plant species of which a majority involved interactions with honeybees. We found that nestedness and bee species specialisation of plant-bee interaction networks increased with elevation and that the relationships were consistent in the cold-dry and warm-wet seasons respectively. Link rewiring increased in the warm-wet season with elevation but remained indifferent in the cold-dry seasons. Conversely, network modularity and plant species were more specialised at lower elevations during both the cold-dry and warm-wet seasons, with higher values observed during the warm-wet seasons. We found flower and bee species diversity and abundance rather than direct effects of climate variables to best predict modularity, specialisation, and link rewiring in plant-bee-interaction networks. This study highlights changes in network architectures with elevation suggesting a potential sensitivity of plant-bee interactions with climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns along the elevation gradients of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot.

Warming of experimental plant-pollinator communities advances phenologies, alters traits, reduces interactions and depresses reproduction

Climate change may disrupt plant-pollinator mutualisms by generating phenological asynchronies and by altering traits that shape interaction costs and benefits. Our knowledge is limited to studies that manipulate only one partner or focus on either phenological or trait-based mismatches. We assembled communities of three annual plants and a solitary bee prior to flowering and emergence to test how springtime warming affects phenologies, traits, interactions and reproductive output. Warming advanced community-level flowering onset, peak and end but did not alter bee emergence. Warmed plant communities produced fewer and smaller flowers with less, more-concentrated nectar, reducing attractiveness, and warmed bees were more generalized in their foraging, reducing their effectiveness. Plant-bee interactions were less frequent, shorter and peaked earlier under warming. As a result, warmed plants produced fewer, lighter seeds, indicating pollinator-mediated fitness costs. Climate change will perturb plant-pollinator mutualisms, causing wide-ranging effects on partner species and diminishing the ecosystem service they provide.

The influence of climate warming on flowering phenology in relation to historical annual and seasonal temperatures and plant functional traits

Climate warming has the potential to influence plant flowering phenology which in turn can have broader ecological consequences. Herbarium collections offer a source of historical plant data that makes possible the ability to document and better understand how warming climate can influence long-term shifts in flowering phenology. We examined the influence of annual, winter, and spring temperatures on the flowering phenology of herbarium specimens for 36 species collected from 1884-2015. We then compared the response to warming between native and non-native, woody and herbaceous, dry and fleshy fruit, and spring vs summer blooming species. Across all species, plants flowered 2.26 days earlier per 1 °C increase in annual average temperatures and 2.93 days earlier per 1 °C increase in spring onset average temperatures. Winter temperatures did not significantly influence flowering phenology. The relationship of temperature and flowering phenology was not significantly different between native and non-native species. Woody species flowered earlier than herbaceous species only in response to increasing annual temperatures. There was no difference in the phenological response between species with dry fruits and those fleshy fruits for any of the temperature periods. Spring blooming species exhibited a significantly greater phenological response to warming yearly average temperatures than summer blooming species. Although herbarium specimens can reveal climate change impacts on phenology, it is also evident that the phenological responses to warming vary greatly among species due to differences in functional traits such as those considered here, as well as other factors.

Phenological traits foster persistence of mutualistic networks by promoting facilitation

Morphological and phenological traits are key determinants of the structure of mutualistic networks. Both traits create forbidden links, but phenological traits can also decouple interaction in time. While such difference likely affects the indirect effects among species and consequently network persistence, it remains overlooked. Here, using a dynamic model, we show that networks structured by phenology favour facilitation over competition within guilds of pollinators and plants, thereby increasing network persistence, while the contrary holds for networks structured by morphology. We further show that such buffering of competition by phenological traits mostly beneficiate to specialists, the most vulnerable species otherwise, which propagate the most positive effects within guilds and promote nestedness. Our results indicate that beyond trophic mismatch, phenological shifts such as those induced by climate change are likely to affect indirect effects within mutualistic assemblages, with consequences for biodiversity.

The role of climate change in pollinator decline across the Northern Hemisphere is underestimated

Pollinator biodiversity loss occurs at unprecedented rates globally, with particularly sharp declines documented in the North Temperate Zone. There is currently no consensus on the main drivers of the decline. Although climate change is expected to drive biodiversity loss in the future, current warming is often suggested to have positive impacts on pollinator assemblages in higher latitudes. Consequently, pollinator conservation initiatives in Europe and the USA tend to lack climate adaptation initiatives, an omission of which may be risky if climate change has significant negative impacts on pollinators. To gain an understanding of the impacts of climate change on pollinator biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere, we conducted a literature review on genetic, species and community level diversity. Our findings suggest that global heating most likely causes homogenization of pollinator assemblages at all levels of pollinator biodiversity, making them less resilient to future stochasticity. Aspects of biodiversity that are rarely measured (e.g. genetic diversity, β-diversity, species evenness) tend to be most affected, while some dimensions of climate change, such as fluctuations in winter weather conditions, changes in the length of the vegetational season and increased frequency of extreme weather events, that seldom receive attention in empirical studies, tend to be particularly detrimental to pollinators. Negative effects of global heating on pollinator biodiversity are most likely exacerbated by homogenous and fragmented landscapes, widespread across Europe and the US, which limit opportunities for range-shifts and reduce micro-climatic buffering. This suggests the need for conservation initiatives to focus on increasing landscape connectivity and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales.

A methodological framework to analyse determinants of host-microbiota networks, with an application to the relationships between Daphnia magna's gut microbiota and bacterioplankton

The past 30 years have seen both a surge of interest in assessing ecological interactions using tools borrowed from network theory and an explosion of data on the occurrence of microbial symbionts thanks to next-generation sequencing. Given that classic network methods cannot currently measure the respective effects of different environmental and biological drivers on network structure, we here present two methods to elucidate the determinants of bipartite interaction networks. The first method is based on classifications and compares communities within networks to the grouping of nodes by treatment or similar controlling groups. The second method assesses the link between multivariate explanatory variables and network structure using redundancy analyses after singular value decomposition. In both methods, the significance of effects can be gauged through two randomizations. Our methods were applied to experimental data on Daphnia magna and its interactions with gut microbiota and bacterioplankton. The whole network was affected by Daphnia's diet (algae and/or cyanobacteria) and sample type, but not by Daphnia genotype. At coarse grains, bacterioplankton and gut microbiota communities were different. At this scale, the structure of the gut microbiota-based network was not linked to any explanatory factors, while the bacterioplankton-based network was related to both Daphnia's diet and genotype. At finer grains, Daphnia's diet and genotype affected both microbial networks, but the effect of diet on gut microbiota network structure was mediated solely by differences in microbial richness. While no reciprocal effect between the microbial communities could be found, fine-grained analyses presented a more nuanced picture, with bacterioplankton likely affecting the composition of the gut microbiota. Our methods are widely applicable to bipartite networks, can elucidate both controlled and environmental effects in experimental setting using a large amount of sequencing data and can tease apart reciprocal effects of networks on one another. The twofold approach we propose has the advantage of being able to tease apart effects at different scales of network structure, thus allowing for detailed assessment of reciprocal effects of linked networks on one another. As such, our network methods can help ecologists understand huge datasets reporting microbial co-occurrences within different hosts.

Explaining Intricate Morphometric Variability with Environmental Predictors: The Case of Globularia cordifolia Species Complex

Globularia is a genus of small evergreen and perennial shrubs that are widespread in Europe. Globularia section Empetron includes a group of three species, G. cordifolia, G. meridionalis, and G. neapolitana, that have been taxonomically disputed for more than 150 years. Many morphological features have been proposed to discriminate these species. Nevertheless, evidence from both past and recent literature suggest that these differences among species are not consistent. In order to shed new light in this long-disputed group, we investigated 10 populations of the G. cordifolia species complex with both classical and geometric morphometrics and used environmental predictors in multivariate regression to explain patterns of variation. Our results showed that bract area and calyx teeth length are correlated with solar radiation and annual precipitation, whereas leaf dry mass per unit area can be explained by temperature seasonality. Leaf shape can be explained by temperature seasonality as well, although with a lower amount of explanatory and predictive power. Despite a comparatively low sample size in terms of populations, our results were based on a large number of individuals and were supported by a robust statistical approach. We can conclude that differences among the three species of Globularia could be related to the combined effects of several ecological variables and might not have taxonomical value. Our novel approach provided an ecological interpretation on a species complex that makes up a continuum of forms within the environmental framework of the Mediterranean basin.