Rising Educational Participation and the Trend to Later Childbearing

Health care and contraceptive decision-making autonomy and use of female sterilisation among married women in Malawi

Introduction

Female sterilisation is the most common contraceptive method used globally. The use of female sterilisation is disproportionately low in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) at just 1%. Nonetheless, the prevalence of sterilisation among married women in Malawi is quite high at about 11%. While a few recent studies in SSA have examined the relationship between women's decision-making autonomy and use of long-acting contraceptives, very few have investigated whether different dimensions of decision-making autonomy predict the use of female sterilisation differently. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the relationship between health care and contraceptive decision-making autonomy and the use of female sterilisation in Malawi.

Data and methods

The study relied on secondary data from the 2015-16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The sample comprised 9,164 married women in Malawi that were using a modern contraceptive. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between health care and contraceptive decision-making autonomy and the use of female sterilisation, controlling for key socio-demographic characteristics.

Results

The study revealed that the percentage of married women that made health care and contraceptive decisions independently was quite low. The main finding of this study was that contraceptive decision-making autonomy increased the relative likelihood of using female sterilisation while health care autonomy was associated with a lower likelihood of being sterilized. The socio- demographic characteristics that significantly predicted the use of female sterilisation included age, place of residence, household wealth and the number of children a woman had.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that health care and contraceptive decision making have different effects on the use of female sterilisation among married women in Malawi. Specifically, women with autonomy in health care decision making had a relatively lower likelihood of using female sterilisation while those with contraceptive decision-making autonomy had a higher likelihood of using female sterilisation. This suggests that intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of female sterilisation in Malawi need to focus on empowering women in the contraceptive decision-making domain.

The fertility timing gap: the intended and real timing of childbirth

The fertility gap, which indicates the difference between the planned and actual number of children born, can be explained by the shift in parenthood to older ages and is associated with the non-attainment of one's intended reproductive plans. This paper focuses on the gap in the timing of entry into parenthood, i.e. between the planned and actual age at the birth of the first child. The study is based on data from the Women 2016 survey which re-interviewed women of fertile age from the second wave of the Czech Generations & Gender Survey conducted in 2008. At the population level, the fertility timing gap differs across generations. While for Czech women born between 1966 and 1971 the planned age exceeded the actual observed age by one year, the realisation of fertility occurred two years later than planned for the youngest generation (1983-1990) included in the study. At the individual level, the later-than-planned realisation of fertility was found to be related primarily to partner-related factors.

Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

Explaining the urban-rural gradient in later fertility in Europe

Demographic research shows that, in Europe, fertility takes place later and is lower in cities than in rural areas. One might expect fertility to be delayed in urban areas because of longer periods in education and enhanced career opportunities. We, therefore, examine how prevalent later fertility (35+ and 40+) is along the urban-rural axis, and whether differences can be explained by economic, cultural and compositional factors. We estimate multilevel random coefficient models, employing aggregated Eurostat data of 1328 Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques (NUTS) 3 and 270 NUTS 2 regions from 28 European countries. The urban-rural gradient in later fertility considerably diminishes once factors describing the economic environment, family and gender norms as well as population composition are accounted for. The higher prevalence of later fertility in cities is particularly associated with higher female education, greater wealth and a higher share of employment in high-technology sectors.

Australian women's views concerning non-medical egg freezing and factors motivating freezing decisions

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine women's views about egg freezing for non-medical reasons and the factors motivating freezing decisions.

DESIGN

In this study, 514 women aged 18-44 years completed an online cross-sectional survey exploring fertility knowledge, reproductive intentions and views concerning non-medical egg freezing.

METHODS

Data were analysed descriptively. Additionally, 14 variables noted as potential motivators in prior literature were entered into a multinomial regression to explore factors that would motivate women to consider freezing their eggs for non-medical reasons.

RESULTS

Views concerning non-medical egg freezing were generally positive, with 61.3% of participants reporting that they would consider egg freezing ('Yes' or 'Maybe'). Factors motivating decisions to freeze varied among women who responded 'Yes', 'Maybe' and 'I don't know' to whether they would consider freezing. The availability of Medicare subsidization and the procedure not affecting future fertility were significant predictors for all three groups of women.

CONCLUSIONS

Acceptability of egg freezing for non-medical reasons was moderate to high. However, there is a need for targeted fertility information to educate women about fertility and optimal times to conceive and freeze their eggs. Future research about views concerning non-medical egg freezing among diverse populations and examining the health economics of this procedure would be beneficial.

Mediating Role of Lifestyle Behaviors in the Association between Education and Cancer: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

Many studies have shown that socioeconomic position (SEP) is associated with the incidence of malignant tumors at different sites. This study aims to estimate the association between educational level (as proxy for SEP) and cancer incidence and to understand whether the observed associations might be partially explained by lifestyle behaviors.

METHODS

The analyses were performed on data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, globally and by sex. We used Cox proportional hazards models together with mediation analysis to disentangle the total effect (TE) of educational level [measured through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII)] on cancer incidence into pure direct (PDE) and total indirect (TIE) effect, unexplained and explained by mediators, respectively. PDE and TIE were then combined to compute the proportions mediated (PM).

RESULTS

After an average of 14 years of follow-up, 52,422 malignant tumors were ascertained. Low educated participants showed higher risk of developing stomach, lung, kidney (in women), and bladder (in men) cancers, and, conversely, lower risk of melanoma and breast cancer (in post-menopausal women), when compared with more educated participants. Mediation analyses showed that portions of the TE of RII on cancer could be explained by site-specific related lifestyle behaviors for stomach, lung, and breast (in women).

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer incidence in Europe is determined at least in part by a socioeconomically stratified distribution of risk factors.

IMPACT

These observational findings support policies to reduce cancer occurrence by altering mediators, such as lifestyle behaviors, particularly focusing on underprivileged strata of the population.

The HOME-21: A revised measure of the home environment for the 21st century tested in two independent samples

For decades, the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME) has been the most widely used measure of children's home environments. This report provides a revised version of the HOME-Short Form, the HOME-21, reflecting historical changes in family composition and caregiver roles, norms about the acceptability of different forms of discipline, and children's digital environments. Using data from two samples of parents of children ages 0-17 (Fast Track [FT], N = 553, age = 33.8, 49.2% female, 48.1% Black, 51.9% White/other; Great Smoky Mountains Study [GSMS], N = 722, age = 37.2, 54.7% female, 67.6% White, 6.6% Black, 25.8% American Indian), we assess the utility of the HOME-21 with descriptive statistics and correlations with a range of demographic, family context, parenting, and child adjustment measures. Higher HOME-21 scores were correlated with obtaining a high school diploma or equivalency diploma (in GSMS only), having 4 or more years of college, and household income. HOME-21 was also correlated with having a more favorable family context indexed by fewer stressful life events (in FT only), less household food insecurity, lower household chaos, and more perceived social support. Higher HOME-21 scores were correlated with better parenting in the form of parental acceptance, positive parenting, warm involvement, appropriate and consistent discipline, verbal discussion, less physical aggression, and greater parental self-efficacy. Higher HOME-21 scores were correlated with better child adjustment in terms of fewer emotional and conduct problems, less hyperactivity, and more prosocial behavior. The HOME-21 has utility for use in future studies of children's home environments in the 21st century. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Partnership dynamics and the fertility gap between Sweden and Spain

Below-replacement fertility has persisted across European countries for a few decades, though, with variation. Delays in age at first union and first birth have been key factors in the declining fertility levels within these societies. While the vast majority of births occurs within a stable partnership, the link between partnership formation and childbearing is rarely taken into account. In this paper, we examine the role of partnership formation in explaining the gap between Sweden and Spain regarding transitions to first birth. We utilize data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey and the 2012/2013 Swedish Generations and Gender Survey to explore transition probabilities to first birth and implement Kitagawa decomposition and standardization techniques. Results show that having a partner is a strong predictor of becoming a first-time parent in the next 3 years, mainly within the ages 25 to 35. On average, Swedish first-birth transition probabilities for women are only 12% higher than probabilities of Spanish counterparts within this age range, suggesting that the proportion of partnerships formed plays a crucial role in explaining the fertility gap. Decomposition results confirm that before age 30, 74% of the difference in first-order births among women are due to the difference in partnership composition. We further find that earlier union formation in Spain could potentially reduce childlessness levels. Overall, our study highlights the importance of examining the role of partnership dynamics in fertility studies.

Interactions between educational lifecycle and transition to adulthood: A proposal for a new questionnaire

Analysts who research the effect of education on behaviour related to the transition to adulthood are often limited by information available from censuses and surveys, which generally collect only the highest level of education attained at the time of the interview. Unfortunately, this leads to extreme simplification of people's educational paths and does not allow researchers to know exactly when they completed their studies, whether they did so satisfactorily, or whether they had periods of interruption in their educational cycle. In this paper we therefore investigate the problems deriving from having incomplete educational information when analysing events of transition to adulthood such as leaving the parental home, forming a first union, and having a first child. These needs for more detailed information explain why some surveys have questionnaires that would allow for reconstruction of the complete educational history, but this information is difficult to collect and to use. In order to overcome these difficulties of either the complexity or excessive simplicity of questionnaires on education, we propose a new set of questions. These would permit researchers to provide, with the minimum number of questions, the maximum possible useful information on the level and duration of studies, while also taking into account the most important and relevant interruptions. For the empirical analysis we have used the Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) for 12 European countries with sufficient data to reconstruct the complete educational cycle.

Trajectories and Outcomes of Adolescents that Ride With an Impaired Driver/Drive While Impaired

INTRODUCTION

For young drivers, independent transportation has been noted to offer them opportunities that can be beneficial as they enter early adulthood. However, those that choose to engage in riding with an impaired driver (RWI) and drive while impaired (DWI) over time can face negative consequences reducing such opportunities. This study examined the prospective association of identified longitudinal trajectory classes among adolescents that RWI and DWI with their later health, education, and employment in emerging adulthood.

METHODS

We analyzed all seven annual assessments (Waves, W1-W7) of the NEXT Generation Health Study, a nationally representative longitudinal study starting with 10^th grade (2009-2010 school year). Using all seven waves, trajectory classes were identified by latent class analysis with RWI (last 12 months) and DWI (last 30 days) dichotomized as ≥once = 1 vs. none = 0.

RESULTS

Four RWI trajectories and four DWI trajectories were identified: abstainer, escalator, decliner, and persister. For RWI and DWI trajectories respectively, 45.0% (N=647) and 76.2% (N=1,657) were abstainers, 15.6% (N=226) and 14.2% (N=337) were escalators, 25.0% (N=352) and 5.4% (N=99) were decliners, and 14.4% (N=197) and 3.8% (N=83) persisters. RWI trajectories were associated with W7 health status (χ²=13,20, p<.01) and education attainment (χ²=18.37, p<.01). Adolescent RWI abstainers reported better later health status than RWI escalators, decliners, and persisters; and decliners reported less favorable later education attainment than abstainers, escalators, and persisters. DWI trajectories showed no association with health status, education attainment, or employment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest the importance of later health outcomes of adolescent RWI. The mixed findings point to the need for more detailed understanding of contextual and time-dependent trajectory outcomes among adolescents engaging in RWI and DWI.

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

Late fertility intentions increase over time in Austria, but chances to have a child at later ages remain low

Childbearing takes place at increasingly older ages, and fertility is continuing to decrease across female birth cohorts. This study investigated whether the proportion of women who unintentionally forwent childbearing increased over time, and linked this to the age profile of fertility intentions and realization among men and women. This study was based on the Austrian Micro-Censuses (1986-2016) and on the Austrian Generations and Gender Surveys (panel data 2008/09 and 2012/13). Across the birth cohorts 1950-1979, an increasing proportion of women wanted to have children after 40 years of age, but more women failed to meet their fertility intentions expressed at 34-36 years of age. At the individual level, from 30 years of age, more than one-third of women and men with a strong fertility intention were found to persist with this intention within four years even at less fertile ages. In addition, women and men with a strong fertility intention became less likely to have a child with age: <10% of women and approximately 20% of men who had expressed a certain and short-term intention to have a child at 39-41 years of age in 2008/09 had a child by 2012/13. In particular, childless women and men, and those with only one child, persisted in certain and short-term positive intentions from 30 years of age, but parity was not a significant factor in their realization. The sharp increase in 'unrealized fertility' over time draws attention to the importance that personal circumstances and context encountered at older ages may have for fertility, and augurs a continued increase in the use of assisted reproduction.

Environmental factors in declining human fertility

A severe decline in child births has occurred over the past half century, which will lead to considerable population declines, particularly in industrialized regions. A crucial question is whether this decline can be explained by economic and behavioural factors alone, as suggested by demographic reports, or to what degree biological factors are also involved. Here, we discuss data suggesting that human reproductive health is deteriorating in industrialized regions. Widespread infertility and the need for assisted reproduction due to poor semen quality and/or oocyte failure are now major health issues. Other indicators of declining reproductive health include a worldwide increasing incidence in testicular cancer among young men and alterations in twinning frequency. There is also evidence of a parallel decline in rates of legal abortions, revealing a deterioration in total conception rates. Subtle alterations in fertility rates were already visible around 1900, and most industrialized regions now have rates below levels required to sustain their populations. We hypothesize that these reproductive health problems are partially linked to increasing human exposures to chemicals originating directly or indirectly from fossil fuels. If the current infertility epidemic is indeed linked to such exposures, decisive regulatory action underpinned by unconventional, interdisciplinary research collaborations will be needed to reverse the trends.

Explaining the pattern of childbearing behaviors in couples: Protocol for a focused ethnographic study

BACKGROUND

One of the most basic life events is fertility or reproduction, which, although known as a social phenomenon, is a complex and multidimensional concept with economic, cultural, political, and religious significance. The present study aims to explain the pattern of childbearing behaviors in couples.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is a focused ethnographic qualitative research. Participants of this study will be 20-35 years old couples who, using purposeful sampling method, will be selected from comprehensive health centers, ultrasound centers, laboratories, premarital counseling centers, offices of obstetricians and midwives, universities, shopping centers, cinemas, parks, restaurants, and entertainment centers in Isfahan, Iran. Sampling will continue considering the strategy of maximum variation in terms of age, occupation, education, and economic status until data saturation is reached. Data will be collected through semi-structured and in-depth individual interviews, focus group discussions, observation, field notes, daily notes, and document analysis. Simultaneous with data collection, the data will be analyzed using the thematic analysis method based on Braun and Clarke's approach.

CONCLUSION

This present study is expected to lead to a deep understanding and identification of the attitudes, beliefs, and values of couples with regard to childbearing. Moreover, by understanding the pattern of childbearing behaviors of couples, useful information will be provided to the policymakers and planners for effective planning in the field of healthy childbearing. The findings can also be used in reproductive health counseling for newly married couples and community-based interventions.

Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth

Many studies show that females' age at first childbirth affects important outcomes of these females and their offspring such as health- and socioeconomic-related variables. This paper analyzes whether there is a causal relationship between working mothers' school entry age and the timing at which they give birth by exploiting Korea's elementary school entry cutoff regulation. Using administrative employment insurance data that record the fertility history of female working mothers together with regression discontinuity design, we find that a year's delay in age at school starting increases age at first and second childbirth by approximately 3 and 4 months, respectively. We also find that one of the mechanisms that affects the relationship between these two variables is age at first employment. The estimated effects of SSA are likely to be salient in a country where educational sequence that a student experience is rigid.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-021-09597-x.

Premature ovarian insufficiency - the need for a genomic map

Premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) is a life-long disorder of heterogeneous etiology, presenting as adolescent primary amenorrhea in its most severe form, with an overall incidence of 1%. Idiopathic POI accounts for up to 70% of women with POI; and genomic, genetic, epidemiological, familial and cohort studies demonstrate a genetic component to this condition. Currently, the only genetic tests routinely performed in non-syndromic POI are FMR1 premutation and cytogenetics, the latter specifically for X-chromosome abnormalities. However, a myriad of genetic aberrations has been identified and implicated, some of which act in a monogenic Mendelian fashion. The presence of multiple genetic aberrations and the complexity of POI genomics are hardly surprising since the embryological formation of the primordial oocyte pool, postnatal oogenesis and folliculogenesis are all highly complex pathways. With this review, the aim is to discuss the current genetic etiologies in the emerging field of POI genomics. Promising candidate genes include STAG3, SYCE1, FIGLA, NOBOX, FSHR, BMP15 and INHA. This area has the potential to progress rapidly in light of advances in genomic technologies. The development of a POI genomic map not only will assist in understanding the underlying molecular mechanisms affecting ovarian function but will also be essential in designing predictive and diagnostic gene panels as well as future novel therapeutic strategies.

Historical Context Changes Pathways of Parental Influence on Reproduction: An Empirical Test from 20th-Century Sweden

Several studies have found that parental absences in childhood are associated with individuals’ reproductive strategies later in life. However, these associations vary across populations and the reasons for this heterogeneity remain debated. In this paper, we examine the diversity of parental associations in three ways. First, we test whether different kinds of parental availability in childhood and adolescence are associated with women’s and men’s ages at first birth using the intergenerational and longitudinal Uppsala Birth Cohort Study (UBCoS) dataset from Sweden. This cultural context provides a strong test of the hypothesis that parents influence life history strategies given that robust social safety nets may buffer parental absences. Second, we examine whether investments in education help explain why early parental presence is associated with delayed ages at first birth in many post-industrial societies, given that parents often support educational achievement. Third, we compare parental associations with reproductive timing across two adjacent generations in Sweden. This historical contrast allows us to control for many sources of heterogeneity while examining whether changing educational access and norms across the 20th-century change the magnitude and pathways of parental influence. We find that parental absences tend to be associated with earlier first births, and more reliably so for women. Many of these associations are partially mediated by university attendance. However, we also find important differences across cohorts. For example, the associations with paternal death become similar for sons and daughters in the more recent cohort. One possible explanation for this finding is that fathers start influencing sons and daughters more similarly. Our results illustrate that historical changes within a population can quickly shift how family affects life history.

Factors associated with giving birth at advanced maternal age in the United States

OBJECTIVE

In 2018, 17 percent of all births in the United States occurred to women of advanced maternal age (AMA.) While the outcomes of AMA pregnancies have been examined extensively, the drivers behind increasing rates of AMA pregnancies in the United States are less understood. Some scholars have asserted that women are increasingly delaying their first birth in favor of educational and career aspirations. Yet birth trends in the United States do not support this as the primary explanatory factor of AMA births. Other factors may also contribute to high rates of AMA in the United States. This study sought to identify main predictors of AMA birth using a cross-sectional retrospective sample.

DESIGN

We employed a multivariate logistic regression analysis on a cross-sectional retrospective sample to identify significant independent predictors of giving birth at advance maternal age (AMA) in the United States.

SETTING

Data was obtained from the Unites States Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) Phase 7 Core Questionnaire and linked birth certificates. Questions are designed to assess maternal attitudes and experiences before, during and just after pregnancy. Surveys for Phase 7 were completed in 2017 and 2018. The study population represents mothers from 34 states that met the CDC's 55% response rate threshold and Puerto Rico.

PARTICIPANTS

The PRAMS dataset comprises self-reported data and linked birth certificate data from women who recently gave birth. A total of 38,549 mothers are included in the Phase 7 dataset. State sample sizes ranged from 503 mothers in Wyoming to 1,897 mothers in Michigan. All mothers gave birth in the year 2017.

MEASUREMENTS AND FINDINGS

The outcome of interest was AMA birth, defined as conceiving and subsequently giving birth to a baby at age 35 or older. Predictors for AMA birth were selected a priori and included: pregnancy intention, history of previous live birth, insurance status, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status, and urban location. Previous live birth to at least one child was a significant independent predictor for AMA birth. Mothers with high parity, defined as 6 or more previous live births, were 17 times more likely to give birth at advanced maternal age. Mothers with an unwanted pregnancy were 1.9 times more likely to have an AMA birth. College attainment, high income, marital status, urbanicity, and race/ethnicity were also independent predictors of AMA birth. Health insurance was not a significant predictor of AMA birth after accounting for other factors.

KEY CONCLUSIONS

Delayed and late childbirth may not be intentional for a significant group of older mothers. Converse to popular assumptions that women delay childbearing in favor of career aspirations, the majority of AMA mothers have previous children. Half of AMA mothers have two or more previous children. The findings in this paper suggests that multiple factors predict AMA births. There may be several subtypes of women who enter pregnancy at advanced maternal age.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

As women weigh personal desire to bear children against competing social expectations, they may find themselves navigating their own unique path shaped in part by the region in which they live. Better characterization of the circumstances that lead to advanced maternal age in the United States, including exploration of unintended and unwanted AMA pregnancy, is necessary to develop policies and interventions that meet women's needs. This work should utilize a reproductive justice framework to ensure that women's preferences, particularly women of color, are upheld while promoting health and wellbeing for women.

European countries with delayed childbearing are not those with lower fertility

At the individual level, a very strong negative relationship is observed between age at first birth and total number of children. However, at the country level, it is possible that no relationship exists between factors that reduce fertility at younger ages and stimulate it at older ages. Hence, across countries, the size of the decline in youth fertility is potentially unrelated to the size of the increase in fertility at older ages or the decline in total fertility. We study the fertility of women and their age at childbirth, with particular attention to their evolution over the last 40 years in countries across Europe. Comparing these countries, the increase in births after age 30 has occurred relatively independently of the decline at younger ages according to both period and cohort, and we find no positive relationship between the delay of first birth and decline in total fertility. On the contrary, an inverse relationship evidently exists at the country level, as longer delays generally correspond to smaller declines in total fertility. Context effects largely dominate individual constraints and play an important role in the occurrence of later births.

Understanding the decline in under-18 conception rates throughout England's local authorities between 1998 and 2017

We consider England's two-decade teenage conception decline in the context of societal changes: rising educational aspirations; growing second- and third-generation teenage ethnic minority populations; increased deprivation associated with economic recession and post-2008 Government austerity; and changing housing availability. Using England's Local Authority Districts (LAD) 1998-2017, we explore the role of area characteristics in explaining spatial differences in under-18 conception rates and how changing characteristics may explain temporal changes. Urban/rural distinctions in teenage conceptions are largely minimised after considering LAD characteristics. Area characteristics continue to partly explain teenage conception rates but are better at explaining area differences than variation over time.

The risks of advancing parental age on neonatal morbidity and mortality are U- or J-shaped for both maternal and paternal ages

BACKGROUND

The biologic implications of delayed parenthood have been blamed for a major public health crisis in the United States, that includes high rates of neonatal morbidity and mortality (NMM). The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of parent age on NMM and to provide results that can serve as a starting point for more specific mediation modeling.

METHODS

Data containing approximately 15,000,000 birth records were obtained from the United States Natality database for the years 2014 to 2018. A Bayesian modeling approach was used to estimate the both the total effect and the risk adjusted for confounding between parent ages and for mediation by chromosomal disorders including Down syndrome. Outcomes included intra-hospital death and nine measures of neonatal morbidity.

RESULTS

For paternal age, seven NMM (preterm birth, very preterm birth, low Apgar score, treatment with antibiotics, treatment with surfactant, prolonged ventilation, intra-hospital death) had U-shaped risk patterns, two NMM (small for gestational age, admission to neonatal intensive care) had J-shaped risk patterns, one NMM (seizures) was not significantly related to paternal age. For maternal age, three NMM (low Apgar score, treatment with antibiotics and intra-hospital death) had U-shaped risk patterns, four NMM (preterm delivery, very preterm delivery, admission to neonatal intensive care, treatment with surfactant) had J-shaped risk patterns, one NMM (small for gestational age) had a risk declining with age, one NMM (prolonged ventilation) had a risk increasing with age and one NMM (seizures) was not significantly related to maternal age.

CONCLUSIONS

Both advancing maternal and paternal ages had U- or J-shaped risk patterns for neonatal morbidity and mortality.

A Dream Deferred: African American Women's Diminished Socioeconomic Returns of Postponing Childbearing from Teenage to Adulthood

Background

Brookings Institution has identified postponing childbirth from teenage to adulthood as a major strategy that is needed for upward social mobility of women. However, according to the Minorities' Diminished Returns (MDRs), the associations between aspirations, investments, behaviors, and socioeconomic position (SEP) may be diminished for marginalized groups such as African Americans.

Objective

To extend the existing knowledge on the MDRs, the current study had two aims: First to compare White and African American women for the association between postponing childbearing to adulthood and SEP in a national sample of American women. Second, to test correlates of postponing childbearing to adulthood and SEP at birth with long term outcomes 15 years later when the child was 15 years old.

Methods

For this longitudinal study, data came from the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (FFCWS), a national longitudinal prospective study in the United States (US) that followed an ethnically diverse sample of women from childbirth for 15 years from 1998 to 2016. For the first aim, this study included 2679 women composed of 723 Whites and 1956 African Americans. For the second aim, among 1842 individuals who had available data 15 years later, we measured various economic, behavioral, and mental health outcomes when the child was 15 years old. For aim 1 we ran linear regression. Postponing childbearing to adulthood was the independent variable. The dependent variable, SEP (poverty) was treated as a continuous measure with higher score indicating more poverty. Confounders included marital status and delivery characteristics. For the aim 2, we ran Pearson correlation test (exploratory analysis) to test if baseline SEP correlates with future outcomes.

Results

Postponing childbearing from adolescence to adulthood was associated with higher SEP in adulthood, net of all confounders including marital status and education. We found a significant interaction between postponing childbearing from adolescence to adulthood and race on SEP, suggesting that the economic reward of postponing childbearing may be weaker for African American women than for White women.

Conclusions

Although postponing the age at childbirth is a recommended strategy for women who wish to maximize their chance of upward social mobility, this strategy may be associated with smaller economic returns for African American women than White women. The results can also be interpreted as MDRs in investments in terms of a postponing childbearing. In a fair society, the same investment should be similarly rewarded across diverse racial groups. In the reality, however, the US society differently rewards White and African American women who postpone childbearing. Research should explore the roles of social stratification, blocked opportunities, and concentrated poverty in explaining the unequal return of such an investment for African American and White women.

Latest-Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low-Fertility Countries

After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950-2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990-2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence in Europe: a comprehensive review of population-based epidemiological studies

Background

Since the end of the previous century, there has not been a comprehensive review of European studies on socioeconomic inequality in cancer incidence. In view of recent advances in data source linkage and analytical methods, we aimed to update the knowledge base on associations between location-specific cancer incidence and individual or area-level measures of socio-economic status (SES) among European adults.

Materials and methods

We systematically searched three databases (PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science) for articles on cancer incidence and SES. Qualitative synthesis was performed on the 91 included English language studies, published between 2000 and 2019 in Europe, which focused on adults, relied on cancer registry data and reported on relative risk (RR) estimates.

Results

Adults with low SES have increased risk of head and neck, oesophagogastric, liver and gallbladder, pancreatic, lung, kidney, bladder, penile and cervical cancers (highest RRs for lung, head and neck, stomach and cervix). Conversely, high SES is linked with increased risk of thyroid, breast, prostate and skin cancers. Central nervous system and haematological cancers are not associated with SES. The positive gap in testicular cancer has narrowed, while colorectal cancer shows a varying pattern in different countries. Negative associations are generally stronger for men compared to women.

Conclusions

In Europe, cancers in almost all common locations are associated with SES and the inequalities can be explained to a varying degree by known life-style related factors, most notably smoking. Independent effects of many individual and area SES measures which capture different aspects of SES can also be observed.

Early Family Life Course Standardization in Sweden: The Role of Compositional Change

The diversity of early family life courses is thought to have increased, although empirical evidence is mixed. Less standardized family formation is attributed to compositional changes in educational attainment, labour market participation, and childhood living conditions. I investigate whether and why family trajectories have become more or less standardized across birth cohorts in Sweden. I combine sequence metrics with Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions to assess the compositional shifts that drive changes in family formation standardization. Family trajectories of individuals born in 1952, 1962, and 1972 from age 18 to 35 are reconstructed using Swedish register data. My results demonstrate that early family formation has become more standardized across birth cohorts. Further, compositional differences between birth cohorts partially account for this standardization, especially for women. For example, higher levels of educational attainment are associated with family formation standardization. This substantiates arguments that family formation may re-standardize following the second demographic transition.

Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age

STUDY QUESTION

What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age?

SUMMARY ANSWER

For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18–45 and 528 women aged 18–41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS

Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38–41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement. They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research was partly supported by a Research School of Social Sciences Visiting Fellowship at the Australian National University and an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP150104248). Éva Beaujouan’s work was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project ‘Later Fertility in Europe’ (Grant agreement no. P31171-G29). This paper uses unit record data from the HILDA Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to either DSS or the Melbourne Institute. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Factors associated with pregnancy and motherhood among Mexican women aged 15-24

Adolescent pregnancy is associated with poor health and socioeconomic factors. The adolescent pregnancy rate in Mexico is the highest among the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We aimed to explore the factors associated with pregnancies and births in adolescent and young adult women. Using the 2015 Mexican National Survey of Boys, Girls, and Women (ENIM), we examined two dichotomous outcomes: "ever pregnant" and "being a mother" in women from 15 to 19 years and from 20 to 24 years without pregnancies during adolescence. We conducted bivariate analysis for each age group and used general linear models (GLM) to assess the association between the outcome variables and selected socioeconomic variables. Among adolescents, school attendance and tertiary education significantly decreased the likelihood of ever having been pregnant or being mothers, while being married/cohabiting increased the likelihood. Older age at first intercourse was negatively associated with ever having been pregnant. For adult women, in addition to school attendance, tertiary education, and being married/cohabiting, the region of residence also showed a significant association with ever having been pregnant. Similar socioeconomic factors were associated with pregnancy and motherhood between adolescents and young adults. However, it was found that delaying sexual debut could reduce the adolescent pregnancy rate. Our results highlight the importance of attending school and attaining tertiary education in reducing adolescent fertility rates.

Online Distance Education and Transition to Parenthood Among Female University Students in Sweden

The expansion of tertiary education is key to understanding postponement of first births. Currently, online distance education is changing the nature of university enrolment. In this study, I suggest that online distance education impacts on fertility by facilitating the transition to parenthood among students. I examine the relationship between online distance education and first births during university enrolment. Using survival analysis of register data for the 1968-1991 female cohorts, I examine the impact of distance and campus education on first-parity transitions during university enrolment between 2004 and 2012 (N = 938,768). Results indicate that the negative association between enrolment and first parity conception differs substantially between campus and distance enrolment. Compared to non-enrolment, the hazard of first parity conception is 70% lower during campus enrolment but 43% lower during distance enrolment. These findings are discussed in relation to educational heterogeneity and fertility postponement and the impact of technological innovation on family dynamics.