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Wu HC, Murphy H, Greer A, Clay L. Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual-threat environment. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2024; 44:724-737. [PMID: 37550261 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Revised: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households' evacuation decisions during a dual-threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID-19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual-threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID-19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast-a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging-produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID-19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID-19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Che Wu
- Department of Emergency Management and Disaster Science, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA
| | - Haley Murphy
- Fire and Emergency Management Administration Program, Oklahoma State University, Still Water, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Alex Greer
- Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security, University at Albany, SUNY Albany, New York, USA
| | - Lauren Clay
- Department of Emergency Health Services, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Murray-Tuite P, Ge YG, Zobel C, Nateghi R, Wang H. Critical Time, Space, and Decision-Making Agent Considerations in Human-Centered Interdisciplinary Hurricane-Related Research. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2021; 41:1218-1226. [PMID: 31318469 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2017] [Revised: 06/05/2019] [Accepted: 07/01/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
In hazard and disaster contexts, human-centered approaches are promising for interdisciplinary research since humans and communities feature prominently in many definitions of disaster and the built environment is designed and constructed by humans to serve their needs. With a human-centered approach, the decision-making agent becomes a critical consideration. This article discusses and illustrates the need for alignment of decision-making agents, time, and space for interdisciplinary research on hurricanes, particularly evacuation and the immediate aftermath. We specifically consider the fields of sociobehavioral science, transportation engineering, power systems engineering, and decision support systems in this context. These disciplines have historically adopted different decision-making agents, ranging from individuals to households to utilities and government agencies. The fields largely converged to the local level for studies' spatial scales, with some extensions based on the physical construction and operation of some systems. Greater discrepancy across the fields is found in the frequency of data collection, which ranges from one time (e.g., surveys) to continuous monitoring systems (e.g., sensors). Resolving these differences is important for the success of interdisciplinary teams in protective-action-related disaster research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Y Gurt Ge
- School of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Christopher Zobel
- Department of Business Information Technology, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Roshanak Nateghi
- School of Industrial Engineering and Division of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
| | - Haizhong Wang
- School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
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Losee JE, Smith CT, Webster GD. Politics, Personality, and Impulsivity Can Color People's Perceptions of-and Responses to-Hurricane Threats of Varying Severity. PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN 2020; 47:1435-1451. [PMID: 33283666 DOI: 10.1177/0146167220969021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Theory and research suggest that objective features of a threatening situation and individual differences influence threat responses. We examine three ways individual traits may relate to a threat response: (a) directly and independent of objective threat features, (b) indirectly through relationships with threat perception, or (c) as moderators of the relationship between objective threat features and responses. Using integrative data analysis (IDA), we aggregated data across three studies examining hurricane preparation intentions. Analysis supported two of the potential pathways. Supporting the first path, both openness and extraversion had direct, positive relationships with preparation likelihood. Supporting the second path, agreeableness, conscientiousness, and social conservatism positively related to preparation likelihood through a positive relationship with threat perception, whereas impulsivity and sensation-seeking negatively related to preparation likelihood through a negative relationship with threat perception. This work shows the pivotal role individual differences play regarding responses to uncertain threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joy E Losee
- University of Dayton, OH, USA.,University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
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Bica M, Weinberg J, Palen L. Achieving Accuracy through Ambiguity: the Interactivity of Risk Communication in Severe Weather Events. Comput Support Coop Work 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s10606-020-09380-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
AbstractRisks associated with natural hazards such as hurricanes are increasingly communicated on social media. For hurricane risk communication, visual information products—graphics—generated by meteorologists and scientists at weather agencies portray forecasts and atmospheric conditions and are offered to parsimoniously convey predictions of severe storms. This research considers risk interactivity by examining a particular hurricane graphic which has shown in previous research to have a distinctive diffusion signature: the ‘spaghetti plot’, which contains multiple discrete lines depicting a storm’s possible path. We first analyzed a large dataset of microblog interactions around spaghetti plots between members of the public and authoritative weather sources within the US during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. We then conducted interviews with a sample of the weather authorities after preliminary findings sketched the role that experts have in such communications. Findings describe how people make sense of risk dialogically over graphics, and show the presence of a fundamental tension in risk communication between accuracy and ambiguity. The interactive effort combats the unintended declarative quality of the graphical risk representation through communicative acts that maintain a hazard’s inherent ambiguity until risk can be foreclosed. We consider theoretical and practice-based implications of the limits and potentials of graphical risk representations and of widely diffused scientific communication, and offer reasons we need CSCW attention paid to the larger enterprise of risk communication.
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Lindell MK. Improving Hazard Map Comprehension for Protective Action Decision Making. FRONTIERS IN COMPUTER SCIENCE 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fcomp.2020.00027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Glaser M, Schwan S. Processing textual and visual certainty information about digital architectural models. COMPUTERS IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.chb.2019.02.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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French S, Argyris N, Haywood SM, Hort MC, Smith JQ. Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2019; 39:9-16. [PMID: 29059698 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12904] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2016] [Revised: 08/04/2017] [Accepted: 08/09/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon French
- Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Nikolaos Argyris
- School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Stephanie M Haywood
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | - Jim Q Smith
- Alan Turing Institute, and, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, British Library, London, UK
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Kyne D, Donner W. Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas. POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s11113-018-9492-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9010032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Fischhoff B, Wong-Parodi G, Garfin DR, Holman EA, Silver RC. Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2018; 38:71-83. [PMID: 28597480 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2016] [Revised: 01/30/2017] [Accepted: 02/09/2017] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill). Respondents' judgments were generally consistent with one another, with scientific knowledge, and with their self-reported behavioral responses and policy preferences. Thus, by the time the threat appeared to have subsided in the United States, members of the public, as a whole, had seemingly mastered its basic contours. Moreover, they could express their beliefs in quantitative terms. Judgments of personal risk were weakly and inconsistently related to reported gender, age, education, income, or political ideology. Better educated and wealthier respondents saw population risks as lower; females saw them as higher. More politically conservative respondents saw Ebola as more transmissible and expressed less support for public health policies. In general, respondents supported providing "honest, accurate information, even if that information worried people." These results suggest the value of proactive communications designed to inform the lay public's decisions, thoughts, and emotions, and informed by concurrent surveys of their responses and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Baruch Fischhoff
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Dana Rose Garfin
- Department of Psychology and Social Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - E Alison Holman
- Sue and Bill Gross School of Nursing, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Roxane Cohen Silver
- Department of Psychology and Social Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
- Department of Medicine, Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
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Ruginski IT, Boone AP, Padilla LM, Liu L, Heydari N, Kramer HS, Hegarty M, Thompson WB, House DH, Creem-Regehr SH. Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations. SPATIAL COGNITION AND COMPUTATION 2016. [DOI: 10.1080/13875868.2015.1137577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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