Bovine Tuberculosis Risk Factors for British Herds Before and After the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic: What have we Learned from the TB99 and CCS2005 Studies?

Is badger culling associated with risk compensation behaviour among cattle farmers?

BACKGROUND

Risk compensation theory suggests that behaviours are modified in response to interventions that remove risks by substituting them with other risky behaviours to maintain a 'risk equilibrium'. Alternatively, risk reduction interventions may result in spill-over behaviours that seek to minimise risks further. This paper assessed evidence for these behavioural risk responses among farmers in response to badger culling that seeks to remove the risk of bovine tuberculosis in cattle.

METHODS

Data from the UK's randomised badger culling trial were re-analysed, comparing farmers' cattle movement practices in proactive and reactive culling areas and control areas. Analysis compared cattle movements during and after the trial using zero-inflated negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

The analysis found no strong evidence of risk compensation behaviours among farmers who experienced proactive culling. However, strong evidence for a reduction in cattle movements in reactive culling areas was found. The results indicate high levels of inertia within farming systems in relation to cattle purchasing.

LIMITATIONS

Data do not account for the risk of cattle purchases and reflect previous policy regimens. Evidence from recent badger culling interventions should be analysed.

CONCLUSION

Proactive badger culling was not associated with risk compensation behaviours, while reactive badger culling was associated with decreased risk taking among farmers.

Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model

Human behaviour is critical to effective responses to livestock disease outbreaks, especially with respect to vaccination uptake. Traditionally, mathematical models used to inform this behaviour have not taken heterogeneity in farmer behaviour into account. We address this by exploring how heterogeneity in farmers vaccination behaviour can be incorporated to inform mathematical models. We developed and used a graphical user interface to elicit farmers (n = 60) vaccination decisions to an unfolding fast-spreading epidemic and linked this to their psychosocial and behavioural profiles. We identified, via cluster analysis, robust patterns of heterogeneity in vaccination behaviour. By incorporating these vaccination behavioural groupings into a mathematical model for a fast-spreading livestock infection, using computational simulation we explored how the inclusion of heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour may impact epidemiological and economic focused outcomes. When assuming homogeneity in farmer behaviour versus configurations informed by the psychosocial profile cluster estimates, the modelled scenarios revealed a disconnect in projected distributions and threshold statistics across outbreak size, outbreak duration and economic metrics.

Bovine tuberculosis in youngstock cattle: A narrative review

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, remains a high-priority global pathogen of concern. The role of youngstock animals in the epidemiology of bTB has not been a focus of contemporary research. Here we have aimed to collate and summarize what is known about the susceptibility, diagnosis, transmission (infectiousness), and epidemiology to M. bovis in youngstock (up to 1-year of age). Youngstock are susceptible to M. bovis infection when exposed, with the capacity to develop typical bTB lesions. Calves can be exposed through similar routes as adults, via residual infection, contiguous neighborhood spread, wildlife spillback infection, and the buying-in of infected but undetected cattle. Dairy systems may lead to greater exposure risk to calves relative to other production systems, for example, via pooled milk. Given their young age, calves tend to have shorter bTB at-risk exposure periods than older cohorts. The detection of bTB varies with age when using a wide range of ante-mortem diagnostics, also with post-mortem examination and confirmation (histological and bacteriological) of infection. When recorded as positive by ante-mortem test, youngstock appear to have the highest probabilities of any age cohort for confirmation of infection post-mortem. They also appear to have the lowest false negative bTB detection risk. In some countries, many calves are moved to other herds for rearing, potentially increasing inter-herd transmission risk. Mathematical models suggest that calves may also experience lower force of infection (the rate that susceptible animals become infected). There are few modeling studies investigating the role of calves in the spread and maintenance of infection across herd networks. One study found that calves, without operating testing and control measures, can help to maintain infection and lengthen the time to outbreak eradication. Policies to reduce testing for youngstock could lead to infected calves remaining undetected and increasing onwards transmission. Further studies are required to assess the risk associated with changes to testing policy for youngstock in terms of the impact for within-herd disease control, and how this may affect the transmission and persistence of infection across a network of linked herds.

A mechanistic model captures livestock trading, disease dynamics, and compensatory behaviour in response to control measures

Trade is a complex, multi-faceted process that can contribute to the spread and persistence of disease. We here develop novel mechanistic models of supply. Our model is framed within a livestock trading system, where farms form and end trade partnerships with rates dependent on current demand, with these trade partnerships facilitating trade between partners. With these time-varying, stock dependent partnership and trade dynamics, our trading model goes beyond current state of the art modelling approaches. By studying instantaneous shocks to farm-level supply and demand we show that behavioural responses of farms lead to trading systems that are highly resistant to shocks with only temporary disturbances to trade observed. Individual adaptation in response to permanent alterations to trading propensities, such that animal flows are maintained, illustrates the ability for farms to find new avenues of trade, minimising disruptions imposed by such alterations to trade that common modelling approaches cannot adequately capture. In the context of endemic disease control, we show that these adaptations hinder the potential beneficial reductions in prevalence suTrade is a complex, multi-faceted process that can contribute to the spread and persistence of disease. We here develop novel mechanistic models ofch changes to trading propensities have previously been shown to confer. Assessing the impact of a common disease control measure, post-movement batch testing, highlights the ability for our model to measure the stress on multiple components of trade imposed by such control measures and also highlights the temporary and, in some cases, the permanent disturbances to trade that post-movement testing has on the trading system.

The impact of an African swine fever outbreak on endemic tuberculosis in wild boar populations: A model analysis

A mathematical model is developed and analysed to examine the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into a wild boar population that supports endemic animal tuberculosis (TB). TB is a widespread infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacteria belonging to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) that can persist in reservoir wildlife hosts. Wild boar (sus scrofa) are a key reservoir for MTC, and an increasing trend in wild boar density is expected to lead to an increase in TB prevalence with spill-over to livestock. MTC infection is presently controlled through a variety of strategies, including culling. African swine fever (ASF) is a virulent, viral infection which affects wild boar and is spreading across Eurasia and Oceania. ASF infection leads to near 100% mortality at the individual level, can cause a dramatic decrease in population density and may therefore lead to TB control. We extend an established model that captures the key demographic and infection processes for TB in wild boar to consider the impact of ASF introduction on wild boar populations that support different levels of endemic TB. Our model results indicate that an ASF infection will reduce wild boar population density and lead to a decrease in the prevalence of TB. If ASF persists in the local host population the model predicts the long-term decline of TB prevalence in wild boar. If ASF is eradicated, or fades-out in the local host population, the model predicts a slower recovery of TB prevalence in comparison to wild boar density after an ASF epidemic. This may open a window of opportunity to apply TB management to maintain low TB prevalence.

Generative models of network dynamics provide insight into the effects of trade on endemic livestock disease

We develop and apply analytically tractable generative models of livestock movements at national scale. These go beyond current models through mechanistic modelling of heterogeneous trade partnership network dynamics and the trade events that occur on them. Linking resulting animal movements to disease transmission between farms yields analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number R ₀. We show how these novel modelling tools enable systems approaches to disease control, using R ₀ to explore impacts of changes in trading practices on between-farm prevalence levels. Using the Scottish cattle trade network as a case study, we show our approach captures critical complexities of real-world trade networks at the national scale for a broad range of endemic diseases. Changes in trading patterns that minimize disruption to business by maintaining in-flow of animals for each individual farm reduce R ₀, with the largest reductions for diseases that are most challenging to eradicate. Incentivizing high-risk farms to adopt such changes exploits 'scale-free' properties of the system and is likely to be particularly effective in reducing national livestock disease burden and incursion risk. Encouragingly, gains made by such targeted modification of trade practices scale much more favourably than comparably targeted improvements to more commonly adopted farm-level biosecurity.

Parallels, differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.

Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

Background

Variation in host attributes that influence their contact rates and infectiousness can lead some individuals to make disproportionate contributions to the spread of infections. Understanding the roles of such ‘superspreaders’ can be crucial in deciding where to direct disease surveillance and controls to greatest effect. In the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain, it has been suggested that a minority of cattle farms or herds might make disproportionate contributions to the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, and hence might be considered ‘superspreader farms’.

Objectives and Methods

We review the literature to identify the characteristics of farms that have the potential to contribute to exceptional values in the three main components of the farm reproductive number ‐ R_f: contact rate, infectiousness and duration of infectiousness, and therefore might characterize potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

Results

Farms exhibit marked heterogeneity in contact rates arising from between‐farm trading of cattle. A minority of farms act as trading hubs that greatly augment connections within cattle trading networks. Herd infectiousness might be increased by high within‐herd transmission or the presence of supershedding individuals, or infectiousness might be prolonged due to undetected infections or by repeated local transmission, via wildlife or fomites.

Conclusions

Targeting control methods on putative superspreader farms might yield disproportionate benefits in controlling endemic bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. However, real‐time identification of any such farms, and integration of controls with industry practices, present analytical, operational and policy challenges.

A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control

The maintenance of infectious diseases requires a sufficient number of susceptible hosts. Host culling is a potential control strategy for animal diseases. However, the reduction in biodiversity and increasing public concerns regarding the involved ethical issues have progressively challenged the use of wildlife culling. Here, we assess the potential of wildlife culling as an epidemiologically sound management tool, by examining the host ecology, pathogen characteristics, eco-sociological contexts, and field work constraints. We also discuss alternative solutions and make recommendations for the appropriate implementation of culling for disease control.

Neighbourhood contacts and trade movements drive the regional spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV)

To explore the regional spread of endemic pathogens, investigations are required both at within and between population levels. The bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is such a pathogen, spreading among cattle herds mainly due to trade movements and neighbourhood contacts, and causing an endemic disease with economic consequences. To assess the contribution of both transmission routes on BVDV regional and local spread, we developed an original epidemiological model combining data-driven and mechanistic approaches, accounting for heterogeneous within-herd dynamics, animal movements and neighbourhood contacts. Extensive simulations were performed over 9 years in an endemic context in a French region with high cattle density. The most uncertain model parameters were calibrated on summary statistics of epidemiological data, highlighting that neighbourhood contacts and within-herd transmission should be high. We showed that neighbourhood contacts and trade movements complementarily contribute to BVDV spread on a regional scale in endemically infected and densely populated areas, leading to intense fade-out/colonization events: neighbourhood contacts generate the vast majority of outbreaks (72%) but mostly in low immunity herds and correlated to a rather short presence of persistently infected animals (P); trade movements generate fewer infections but could affect herds with higher immunity and generate a prolonged presence of P. Both movements and neighbourhood contacts should be considered when designing control or eradication strategies for densely populated region.

Bovine Tuberculosis in Britain and Ireland - A Perfect Storm? the Confluence of Potential Ecological and Epidemiological Impediments to Controlling a Chronic Infectious Disease

Successful eradication schemes for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) have been implemented in a number of European and other countries over the last 50 years. However, the islands of Britain and Ireland remain a significant aberration to this trend, with the recent exception of Scotland. Why have eradication schemes failed within these countries, while apparently similar programs have been successful elsewhere? While significant socio-economic and political factors have been discussed elsewhere as key determinants of disease eradication, here we review some of the potential ecological and epidemiological constraints that are present in these islands relative to other parts of Europe. We argue that the convergence of these potential factors may interact additively to diminish the potential of the present control programs to achieve eradication. Issues identified include heterogeneity of diagnostic testing approaches, the presence of an abundant wildlife reservoir of infection and the challenge of sustainably managing this risk effectively; the nature, size, density and network structure of cattle farming; potential effects of Mycobacterium bovis strain heterogeneity on disease transmission dynamics; possible impacts of concurrent endemic infections on the disclosure of truly infected animals; climatological differences and change coupled with environmental contamination. We further argue that control and eradication of this complex disease may benefit from an ecosystem level approach to management. We hope that this perspective can stimulate a new conversation about the many factors potentially impacting bTB eradication schemes in Britain and Ireland and possibly stimulate new research in the areas identified.

Molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strains isolated from livestock and wild animals in Italy suggests the need for a different eradication strategy for bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important zoonosis, which has been re-emerging in different ecological scenarios. In Sicily, Italy, from 2004 to 2014, an anatomopathological survey for tuberculosis-like lesions both in farmed and wild animals was performed. The isolates were genotyped using spoligotyping and Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) techniques. High prevalence of lesions was observed for cattle (4%), pigs (4.9%) and wild boars (6.8%), and a total of 625 Mycobacterium bovis isolates were identified. Genotyping analysis showed the presence of 37 different spoligotypes including fifteen spoligotypes not present in other Italian regions and 266 MIRU-VNTR profiles. Spoligotype SB0120 exhibited the highest prevalence in cattle (50%) and pigs (56%) and the highest genetic variety with 126 different MIRU-VNTR profiles. The isolation of M. bovis in a farmer underlines the importance of M. bovis identification during the human TB diagnostic processes. This study supported the use of the genotyping analysis as a valuable tool for the evaluation of the epidemiological role of pigs and other domestic reservoirs such as goats and the role of wildlife in the maintenance of bTB infection.

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others.

Genomic regions underlying susceptibility to bovine tuberculosis in Holstein-Friesian cattle

BACKGROUND

The significant social and economic loss as a result of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) presents a continuous challenge to cattle industries in the UK and worldwide. However, host genetic variation in cattle susceptibility to bTB provides an opportunity to select for resistant animals and further understand the genetic mechanisms underlying disease dynamics.

METHODS

The present study identified genomic regions associated with susceptibility to bTB using genome-wide association (GWA), regional heritability mapping (RHM) and chromosome association approaches. Phenotypes comprised de-regressed estimated breeding values of 804 Holstein-Friesian sires and pertained to three bTB indicator traits: i) positive reactors to the skin test with positive post-mortem examination results (phenotype 1); ii) positive reactors to the skin test regardless of post-mortem examination results (phenotype 2) and iii) as in (ii) plus non-reactors and inconclusive reactors to the skin tests with positive post-mortem examination results (phenotype 3). Genotypes based on the 50 K SNP DNA array were available and a total of 34,874 SNPs remained per animal after quality control.

RESULTS

The estimated polygenic heritability for susceptibility to bTB was 0.26, 0.37 and 0.34 for phenotypes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. GWA analysis identified a putative SNP on Bos taurus autosomes (BTA) 2 associated with phenotype 1, and another on BTA 23 associated with phenotype 2. Genomic regions encompassing these SNPs were found to harbour potentially relevant annotated genes. RHM confirmed the effect of these genomic regions and identified new regions on BTA 18 for phenotype 1 and BTA 3 for phenotypes 2 and 3. Heritabilities of the genomic regions ranged between 0.05 and 0.08 across the three phenotypes. Chromosome association analysis indicated a major role of BTA 23 on susceptibility to bTB.

CONCLUSION

Genomic regions and candidate genes identified in the present study provide an opportunity to further understand pathways critical to cattle susceptibility to bTB and enhance genetic improvement programmes aiming at controlling and eradicating the disease.

Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in Uruguay (2011-2013)

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with the Mycobacterium bovis. While bTB prevalence in Uruguay has been low (<11 outbreaks/year) for the past 50 years as a consequence of a national control program, annual incidence increased in 2011 through 2013-15, 26 and 16 infected herds each year, raising concerns from livestock stakeholders and the government. The goal of this study was to assess the spatial dynamics of bTB in Uruguay from 2011 to 2013 and the association between bTB and potential demographic and movement risk factors at the herd level using data provided by the Uruguayan Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries. Clustering of incident outbreaks was assessed using the Cuzick-Edwards' test and the Bernoulli model of the spatial scan statistic, and a conditional multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors associated with bTB in a subset of Uruguayan dairy farms. Significant (P<0.05) global clustering was detected in 2012, while high-risk local clusters were detected in southwestern (2011, 2012, 2013), northwestern (2012), and southeastern (2012) Uruguay. Increased risk of bTB in different regions of Uruguay suggests a potential role of animal movements in disease dissemination. Larger herds, higher numbers of animals purchased, and incoming steers to the farm were associated with increased odds of breaking with bTB, in agreement with previous studies but also suggesting other additional sources of risk. These results will contribute to enhanced effectiveness of bTB control programs in Uruguay with the ultimate objective of preventing or mitigating the impact of the disease in the human and animal populations of the country.

Environmental risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis among cattle in high-risk areas

Our research shows that environmental features are important predictors of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle herds in high-prevalence regions. Data from 503 case and 808 control farms included in the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT) were analysed. bTB risk increased in larger herds and on farms with greater areas of maize, deciduous woodland and marsh, whereas a higher percentage of boundaries composed of hedgerows decreased the risk. The model was tested on another case-control study outside RBCT areas, and here it had a much smaller predictive power. This suggests that different infection dynamics operate outside high-risk areas, although it is possible that unknown confounding factors may also have played a role.

A review of risk factors for bovine tuberculosis infection in cattle in the UK and Ireland

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle caused by infection withMycobacterium bovis, a pathogen that may be extremely difficult to eradicate in the presence of a true wildlife reservoir. Our objective was to identify and review relevant literature and provide a succinct summary of current knowledge of risk factors for transmission of infection of cattle. Search strings were developed to identify publications from electronic databases to February 2015. Abstracts of 4255 papers identified were reviewed by three reviewers to determine whether the entire article was likely to contain relevant information. Risk factors could be broadly grouped as follows: animal (including nutrition and genetics), herd (including bTB and testing history), environment, wildlife and social factors. Many risk factors are inter-related and study designs often do not enable differentiation between cause and consequence of infection. Despite differences in study design and location, some risk factors are consistently identified, e.g. herd size, bTB history, presence of infected wildlife, whereas the evidence for others is less consistent and coherent, e.g. nutrition, local cattle movements. We have identified knowledge gaps where further research may result in an improved understanding of bTB transmission dynamics. The application of targeted, multifactorial disease control regimens that address a range of risk factors simultaneously is likely to be a key to effective, evidence-informed control strategies.