Using Synoptic Systems' Typical Wind Trajectories for the Analysis of Potential Atmospheric Long-Distance Dispersal of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus

A quantitative risk assessment for the incursion of lumpy skin disease virus into Australia via long-distance windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease of cattle and water buffalo caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). It is primarily transmitted mechanically by biting insects. LSDV has spread from Africa to the Middle-East, the Balkans, Caucasus, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Asia and India, suggesting that a wide variety of arthropod vectors are capable of mechanical transmission. In 2022, LSD was detected in Indonesia, heightening awareness for Australia's livestock industries. To better understand the risk of LSDV incursion to Australia we undertook a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) looking at windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors, assuming a hypothetical situation where LSD is endemic in south-east Asia and Papua New Guinea. We estimated the risk of LSDV incursion to be low, with a median incursion rate of one incursion every 403 years, based on a model where several infectious insects (i.e. a 'small batch' of 3-5) must bite a single bovine to transmit infection. The incursion risk increases substantially to one incursion every 7-8 years if a bite from a single insect is sufficient for transmission. The risk becomes negligible (one incursion every 20,706 years) if bites from many insects (i.e. a 'large batch' of 30-50 insects) are necessary. Critically, several of our parameter estimates were highly uncertain during sensitivity analyses. Thus, a key outcome of this QRA was to better prioritise surveillance activities and to understand the key research gaps associated with LSDV in the Australasian context. The current literature shows that multiple vectors are required for successful bovine-to-vector transmission of LSDV, suggesting that our estimate of one outbreak every 403 years more accurately represents the risk to Australia; however, the role of single insects in transmission has not yet been evaluated. Similarly, attempts to transmit LSDV between bovines by Culicoides have not been successful, although midges were the highest risk vector category in our model due to the high vector-to-host ratio for midges compared to other vector categories. Our findings provide further insight into the risk of LSD to Australian cattle industries and identify the Tiwi Islands and areas east of Darwin as priority regions for LSDV surveillance, especially between December and March.

Lumpy Skin Disease: A Systematic Review of Mode of Transmission, Risk of Emergence and Risk Entry Pathway

The spread of lumpy skin disease (LSD) to free countries over the last 10 years, particularly countries in Europe, Central and South East Asia, has highlighted the threat of emergence in new areas or re-emergence in countries that achieved eradication. This review aimed to identify studies on LSD epidemiology. A focus was made on hosts, modes of transmission and spread, risks of outbreaks and emergence in new areas. In order to summarize the research progress regarding the epidemiological characteristics of LSD virus over the last 40 years, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses statement guidelines were followed, via two databases, i.e., PubMed (biomedical literature) and Scopus (peer-reviewed literature including scientific journals, books, and conference proceedings). A total of 86 scientific articles were considered and classified according to the type of epidemiological study, i.e., experimental versus observational. The main findings and limitations of the retrieved articles were summarized: buffaloes are the main non-cattle hosts, the main transmission mode is mechanical, i.e., via blood-sucking vectors, and stable flies are the most competent vectors. Vectors are mainly responsible for a short-distance spread, while cattle trade spread the virus over long distances. Furthermore, vaccine-recombinant strains have emerged. In conclusion, controlling animal trade and insects in animal transport trucks are the most appropriate measures to limit or prevent LSD (re)emergence.

Understanding the research advances on lumpy skin disease: A comprehensive literature review of experimental evidence

Lumpy skin disease is caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), which can induce cattle with high fever and extensive nodules on the mucosa or the scarfskin, seriously influencing the cattle industry development and international import and export trade. Since 2013, the disease has spread rapidly and widely throughout the Russia and Asia. In the past few decades, progress has been made in the study of LSDV. It is mainly transmitted by blood-sucking insects, and various modes of transmission with distinct seasonality. Figuring out how the virus spreads will help eradicate LSDV at its source. In the event of an outbreak, selecting the most effective vaccine to block and eliminate the threat posed by LSDV in a timely manner is the main choice for farmers and authorities. At present, a variety of vaccines for LSDV have been developed. The available vaccine products vary in quality, protection rate, safety and side effects. Early detection of LSDV can help reduce the cost of disease. In addition, because LSDV has a huge genome, it is currently also used as a vaccine carrier, forming a new complex with other viral genes through homologous recombination. The vaccine prepared based on this can have a certain preventive effect on many kinds of diseases. Clinical detection of disease including nucleic acid and antigen level. Each method varies in convenience, accuracy, cost, time and complexity of equipment. This article reviews our current understanding of the mode of transmission of LSDV and advances in vaccine types and detection methods, providing a background for further research into various aspects of LSDV in the future.

Genetic characterization and epidemiological analysis of the first lumpy skin disease virus outbreak in Mongolia, 2021

Novel lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) strains of recombinant origin are on the rise in South East Asia following the first emergence in 2017, and published evidence demonstrates that such genetic lineages currently dominate the circulation. Mongolia reported first LSD outbreaks in 2021 in a north-eastern region sharing borders with Russia and China. For each of 59 reported LSDV outbreaks, the number of susceptible animals ranged from 8 to 8600 with a median of 572, while the number of infected animals ranged from one to 355 with a median of 14. Phylogenetic inferences revealed a close relationship of LSDV Mongolia/2021 with recombinant vaccine-like LSDV strains from Russia, China, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. These findings support the published data that the circulating strain of LSDV belongs to the dominant recombinant lineage recently established in the region.

Analysis of vaccine-like lumpy skin disease virus from flies near the western border of China

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating viral disease that occurs in cattle. In China, it was first detected in the Xin-Jiang autonomous region, near the border with Kazakhstan, in August 2019. As there were no new occurrences of LSD in either country following the first detection, the initial introduction of the virus remains unknown. Arthropod vectors were considered as potential vectors. Consequently, to identify the arthropod vectors involved in transmitting LSD virus (LSDV), an insect surveillance campaign was launched at four different sites scattered along the border, and samples from 22 flying insect species were collected and subjected to PCR assays. Following the Agianniotaki LSDV vaccine and Sprygin's general LSDV assays, two kinds of non-biting flies, namely, Musca domestica L and Muscina stabulans, were positive for LSDV. However, all the other insects tested negative. Viral DNA was only detected in wash fluid, implying body surface contamination of the virus. The negative test results suggest that non-biting flies are the dominant insects involved in the observed local epidemic. Three genomic regions encoding RPO30, GPCR, and LW126 were successfully sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. The sequences shared high homology with LSDV/Russia/Saratov/2017, a recombinant vaccine-like strain formerly identified in Russia, and clustered with LSDV vaccine strains in phylogenetic trees of RPO30 and LW126. However, the GPCR gene was seen to be solely clustered with LSDV field strains, implying differences in host affinity between these closely related vaccine-like strains. Despite this, there is no direct evidence to support cross-border transmission of the vaccine-like LSDV. To our knowledge, this is the first report of vaccine-like LSDV DNA detection in non-biting flies in China.

Lumpy skin disease outbreak in cattle population of Chattogram, Bangladesh

Background

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an important viral disease causing significant economic losses in commercial livestock production. In mid‐2019, an outbreak of LSD has been reported in cattle population from different parts of Bangladesh including Chattogram division. A cross‐sectional surveillance study was undertaken from August 2019 to December 2019 to investigate the prevalence and associated risk factors of LSD in cattle in Chattogram district.

Methods

A total of 3,327 cattle from 19 commercial farms were examined for the LSD specific skin lesions and associated risk factors. A total of 120 skin biopsies were collected from the suspected animal for the confirmation of the disease using molecular detection and histopathological examination. Partial genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed on selected viral isolates.

Results

The overall clinical prevalence of LSD in the study population was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.4%–11%) where the highest farm level outbreak frequency was 63.33% (95% CI: 45.51%–78.13%) and the lowest 4.22% (95% CI: 3.39%–5.25%). Crossbred and female cattle showed a significantly higher prevalence of the disease compared to their counterparts. Introduction of new animals in farms was found to be one of the most significant risk factors in the transmission of the disease. All suspected skin biopsies were positive for LSD virus (LSDV) infection with granulomatous and pyogranulomatous dermatitis was revealed on histopathology. Phylogenetic analysis based on the inverted terminal repeat region of the LSDV gene suggested that the locally circulating strain was closely related to the strains isolated from the Middle East and North African countries.

Conclusions

The data generated in this study would be beneficial to the field veterinarians and animal health decision makers in the country as well as it will aid in taking appropriate measures to prevent further relapse or outbreak of this disease in future.

A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel

Objectives

Despite an initial success, Israel’s quarantine-isolation COVID-19 policy has abruptly collapsed. This study’s aim is to identify the causes that led to this exponential rise in the accumulation of confirmed cases.

Methods

Epidemiological investigation reports were used to reconstruct chains of transmission as well as assess the net contribution of local infections relative to imported cases, infected travelers arriving from abroad. A mathematical model was implemented in order to describe the efficiency of the quarantine-isolation policy and the inflow of imported cases. The model’s simulations included two scenarios for the actual time series of the symptomatic cases, providing insights into the conditions that lead to the abrupt change.

Results

The abrupt change followed a Jewish holiday, Purim, in which many public gatherings were held. According to the first scenario, the accumulation of confirmed cases before Purim was driven by imported cases resulting in a controlled regime, with an effective reproduction number, Re, of 0.69. In the second scenario, which followed Purim, a continuous rise of the local to imported cases ratio began, which led to an exponential growth regime characterized by an Re of 4.34.

It was found that the change of regime cannot be attributed to super-spreader events, as these consisted of approximately 5% of the primary cases, which resulted in 17% of the secondary cases.

Conclusions

A general lesson for health policymakers should be that even a short lapse in public responsiveness can lead to dire consequences.

Windborne long-distance migration of malaria mosquitoes in the Sahel

Over the past two decades efforts to control malaria have halved the number of cases globally, yet burdens remain high in much of Africa and the elimination of malaria has not been achieved even in areas where extreme reductions have been sustained, such as South Africa1,2. Studies seeking to understand the paradoxical persistence of malaria in areas in which surface water is absent for 3-8 months of the year have suggested that some species of Anopheles mosquito use long-distance migration3. Here we confirm this hypothesis through aerial sampling of mosquitoes at 40-290 m above ground level and provide-to our knowledge-the first evidence of windborne migration of African malaria vectors, and consequently of the pathogens that they transmit. Ten species, including the primary malaria vector Anopheles coluzzii, were identified among 235 anopheline mosquitoes that were captured during 617 nocturnal aerial collections in the Sahel of Mali. Notably, females accounted for more than 80% of all of the mosquitoes that we collected. Of these, 90% had taken a blood meal before their migration, which implies that pathogens are probably transported over long distances by migrating females. The likelihood of capturing Anopheles species increased with altitude (the height of the sampling panel above ground level) and during the wet seasons, but variation between years and localities was minimal. Simulated trajectories of mosquito flights indicated that there would be mean nightly displacements of up to 300 km for 9-h flight durations. Annually, the estimated numbers of mosquitoes at altitude that cross a 100-km line perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction included 81,000 Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, 6 million A. coluzzii and 44 million Anopheles squamosus. These results provide compelling evidence that millions of malaria vectors that have previously fed on blood frequently migrate over hundreds of kilometres, and thus almost certainly spread malaria over these distances. The successful elimination of malaria may therefore depend on whether the sources of migrant vectors can be identified and controlled.

The Earth Is Small for "Leviathans": Long Distance Dispersal of Giant Viruses across Aquatic Environments

Giant viruses of ‘Megaviridae’ have the ability to widely disperse around the globe. We herein examined ‘Megaviridae’ communities in four distinct aquatic environments (coastal and offshore seawater, brackish water, and hot spring freshwater), which are distantly located from each other (between 74 and 1,765 km), using a meta-barcoding method. We identified between 593 and 3,627 OTUs in each sample. Some OTUs were detected in all five samples tested as well as in many of the Tara Oceans metagenomes, suggesting the existence of viruses of this family in a wide range of habitats and the ability to circulate on the planet.

Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread into the Northern Hemisphere including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Balkans. The rapid expansion of LSDV in those regions represented the emergence of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread through the (a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV, and (b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk, using a combination of ecological niche modelling and fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence data. We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. That analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk for LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modelling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia and Bulgaria. The results suggest that, if current ecological and epidemiological conditions persist, further spread of LSDV in Eurasia may be expected. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region.

Transmission of lumpy skin disease virus: A short review

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral transboundary disease endemic throughout Africa and of high economic importance that affects cattle and domestic water buffaloes. Since 2012, the disease has spread rapidly and widely throughout the Middle Eastern and Balkan regions, southern Caucasus and parts of the Russian Federation. Before vaccination campaigns took their full effect, the disease continued spreading from region to region, mainly showing seasonal patterns despite implementing control and eradication measures. The disease is capable of appearing several hundred kilometers away from initial (focal) outbreak sites within a short time period. These incursions have triggered a long-awaited renewed scientific interest in LSD resulting in the initiation of novel research into broad aspects of the disease, including epidemiology, modes of transmission and associated risk factors. Long-distance dispersal of LSDV seems to occur via the movement of infected animals, but distinct seasonal patterns indicate that arthropod-borne transmission is most likely responsible for the swift and aggressive short-distance spread of the disease. Elucidating the mechanisms of transmission of LSDV will enable the development of more targeted and effective actions for containment and eradication of the virus. The mode of vector-borne transmission of the disease is most likely mechanical, but there is no clear-cut evidence to confirm or disprove this assumption. To date, the most likely vectors for LSDV transmission are blood-sucking arthropods such as stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti), and hard ticks (Rhipicephalus and Amblyomma species). New evidence suggests that the ubiquitous, synanthropic house fly, Musca domestica, may also play a role in LSDV transmission, but this has not yet been tested in a clinical setting. The aim of this review is to compile and discuss the earlier as well as the most recent research data on the transmission of LSDV.

Lumpy skin disease: scientific and technical assistance on control and surveillance activities

The duration of the vaccination campaign sufficient to eliminate lumpy skin disease (LSD) mainly depends on the vaccination effectiveness and coverage achieved. By using a spread epidemiological model, assuming a vaccination effectiveness of 65%, with 50% and 90% coverage, 4 and 3 years campaigns, respectively, are needed to eliminate LSD. When vaccination effectiveness is 80% to 95%, 2 years of vaccination at coverage of 90% is sufficient to eliminate LSD virus (LSDV). For shorter campaigns, LSD is predicted to persist. When the infection is eliminated by vaccination, two pathways for disease recurrence are possible, (i) by new introduction from a neighbouring affected area, especially by introduction of infected animals, or, less likely (ii) the infection persisting either in the environment, in vectors or in wild animals. For planning surveillance, several elements should be considered: the objectives and related design prevalence, the epidemiological situation, the immunological status of the host population, the geographical area and the season, the type of surveillance (active or passive), the diagnostic methods including clinical detection (considered the most effective method for early detection of LSD), the target population, the sample size and frequency. According to the model, for early detecting new introductions of LSD, it may be needed to clinically check a large number of herds (e.g. 2–3,000 herds) monthly. Lower sample sizes can be considered, when a greater delay in detecting the virus is acceptable. Where vaccination is maintained, active surveillance for verifying the effectiveness of vaccination would be needed. Demonstrating disease absence can rely on serological surveillance, which should consider the test sensitivity, the design prevalence (estimated value: 3.5%), the onset and duration of serum antibodies. Important knowledge gaps on LSD are about within‐herd transmission, duration of protective immunity, role of vectors, diagnostic tests, farm location and type in the at‐risk countries and the epidemiological status of neighbouring countries.

High relative abundance of the stable fly Stomoxys calcitrans is associated with lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Israeli dairy farms

The vector of lumpy skin disease (LSD), a viral disease affecting Bovidae, is currently unknown. To evaluate the possible vector of LSD virus (LSDV) under field conditions, a yearlong trapping of dipterans was conducted in dairy farms that had been affected by LSD, 1-2 years previously. This was done in order to calculate monthly relative abundances of each dipteran in each farm throughout the year. The relative abundances of Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) in the months parallel to the outbreaks (December and April) were significantly higher than those of other dipterans. A stable fly population model based on weather parameters for the affected area was used to validate these findings. Its results were significantly correlated with S. calcitrans abundance. This model, based on weather parameters during the epidemic years showed that S. calcitrans populations peaked in the months of LSD onset in the studied farms. These observations and model predictions revealed a lower abundance of stable flies during October and November, when LSD affected adjacent grazing beef herds. These findings therefore suggest that S. calcitrans is a potential vector of LSD in dairy farms and that another vector is probably involved in LSDV transmission in grazing herds. These findings should be followed up with vector competence studies.

Review: Capripoxvirus Diseases: Current Status and Opportunities for Control

Lumpy skin disease, sheeppox and goatpox are high-impact diseases of domestic ruminants with a devastating effect on cattle, sheep and goat farming industries in endemic regions. In this article, we review the current geographical distribution, economic impact of an outbreak, epidemiology, transmission and immunity of capripoxvirus. The special focus of the article is to scrutinize the use of currently available vaccines to investigate the resource needs and challenges that will have to be overcome to improve disease control and eradication, and progress on the development of safer and more effective vaccines. In addition, field evaluation of the efficacy of the vaccines and the genomic database available for poxviruses are discussed.

Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area

Viruses that affect the health of humans and farm animals can spread over long distances via atmospheric mechanisms. The phenomenon of atmospheric long-distance dispersal (LDD) is associated with severe consequences because it may introduce pathogens into new areas. The introduction of new pathogens to Israel was attributed to LDD events numerous times. This provided the motivation for this study which is aimed to identify all the locations in the eastern Mediterranean that may serve as sources for pathogen incursion into Israel via LDD. This aim was achieved by calculating source-receptor relationship probability maps. These maps describe the probability that an infected vector or viral aerosol, once airborne, will have an atmospheric route that can transport it to a distant location. The resultant probability maps demonstrate a seasonal tendency in the probability of specific areas to serve as sources for pathogen LDD into Israel. Specifically, Cyprus' season is the summer; southern Turkey and the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos and Rhodes are associated with spring and summer; lower Egypt and Jordan may serve as sources all year round, except the summer months. The method used in this study can easily be implemented to any other geographic region. The importance of this study is the ability to provide a climatologically valid and accurate risk assessment tool to support long-term decisions regarding preparatory actions for future outbreaks long before a specific outbreak occurs.

Comparison of the efficacy of Neethling lumpy skin disease virus and x10RM65 sheep-pox live attenuated vaccines for the prevention of lumpy skin disease - The results of a randomized controlled field study

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral disease of cattle and buffalo, caused by a Capripox virus. A field study was performed during an LSD epidemic which occurred in 2012-2013 in Israel, in order to assess the efficacy of two commercial vaccines for protection against LSD. Fifteen dairy herds, vaccinated 2-5 months prior to study onset with a single dose of 10(2.5) TCID50 of RM65 attenuated sheep-pox vaccine, and not affected previously, were enrolled in the study. 4694 cows were randomized to be either vaccinated with a 10(3.5) TCID50/dose of RM65 vaccine (x10RM65) or with a same dose of an attenuated Neethling LSD virus vaccine. A case of LSD was defined as the appearance of at least 5 lesions typical to LSD and a severe case was defined if this sign was accompanied by either fever (>39.5°C) or/and a 20% reduction in milk production. Deep lesion biopsies and blood samples were collected from 64.5% of the cases in an attempt to detect DNA of LSD virus by PCR and to differentiate between the wild strain and the vaccine Neethling strain. Seventy-six cows were affected by LSD in 8 herds with an incidence of 0.3-5.7%. Mantel-Haenszel relative risk (RRMH) for LSD morbidity at least 15 days after vaccination in x10RM65 vs. Neethling was 2.635 (CI95%=1.44-4.82) and 11.2 (2.3-54.7) for severe morbidity. RRMH for laboratory confirmed cases was 4.28 (1.59-11.53). An incidence of 0.38% (9/2356) of Neethling associated disease was observed among Neethling vaccinated cows while no such disease occurred in x10RM65 vaccinated cows. We conclude that the Neethling vaccine is significantly more effective than x10RM65 in preventing LSD morbidity, though it might cause a low incidence of Neethling associated disease. No transmission of the Neethling strain to non-Neethling vaccinated cows was observed in this study.