The interplay between CD4 cell count, viral load suppression and duration of antiretroviral therapy on mortality in a resource-limited setting

Systematic review on cumulative HIV viraemia among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral treatment and its association with mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND

We performed a systematic review to generate evidence on the association between cumulative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viraemia and health outcomes.

METHODS

Quantitative studies reporting on HIV cumulative viraemia (CV) and its association with health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) were included. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science and conference abstracts from 1 January 2008 to 1 August 2022.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 26 studies. The association between CV and mortality depended on the study population, methods used to calculate CV and its level. Higher CV was not consistently associated with greater risk of acquire immunodeficiency syndrome-defining clinical conditions. However, four studies present a strong relationship between CV and cardiovascular disease. The risk was not confirmed in relation of increased hazards of stroke. Studies that assessed the effect of CV on the risk of cancer reported a positive association between CV and malignancy, although the effect may differ for different types of cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

CV is associated with adverse health outcomes in PLHIV on ART, especially at higher levels. However, its role in clinical and programmatic monitoring and management of PLHIV on ART is yet to be established.

Estimating the mortality risk correcting for high loss to follow-up among female sex workers with HIV in Durban, South Africa, 2018-2021

PURPOSE

This study assesses risk factors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and estimates mortality risk among female sex workers (FSW) with HIV in Durban, South Africa, in 2018-2021.

METHODS

We used data from the Siyaphambili trial, which evaluated strategies for improved viral suppression. FSW with HIV aged ≥ 18 years with viral load ≥ 50 copies/mL were followed up for 18 months. LTFU was defined as absence from study or intervention visits for 6 months. We traced LTFU participants by calling/in-person visit attempts to ascertain their vital status. We used Cox regression to determine risk factors of LTFU and inverse probability of tracing weights to correct mortality risk.

RESULTS

Of 777 participants, 10 (1.3%) had died and 578 (74.4%) were initially LTFU. Among those LTFU, 36.3% (210/578) were traced successfully, with 6 additional deaths ascertained. Recent physical and sexual violence, and non-viral suppression were associated with increased LTFU. The unweighted and weighted 18-month mortality risks were 2.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-3.9%) and 3.7% (95% CI: 1.8%-5.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LTFU is common among FSW with HIV in South Africa with additional investigation of vital status demonstrating under-ascertained mortality. These data suggest the need for comprehensively addressing risks for mortality among FSW.

Predictors for viral load suppression among HIV positive adults under ART treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: retrospective cohort study

HIV continues to be a serious global public health concern, having 40.4 million lives up to now and continuing to spread throughout all countries. The objective of this study was to identify predictors for viral load suppression among HIV positive adults under ART treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia. An institution based retrospective cohort study design was carry out from 30th March 2017-30th March 2022.Accelerated failure time model were employed to get wide-ranging information about adult HIV positive patients. In this study out of 378 study participants, about 77.8% were suppressed viral load count and the rest were censored. The Weibull AFT model results revealed that predictors were older age (φ = 0.774, 95% CI 0.602-0.793), primary educators (φ = 0.931, 95% CI 0.809-0.964), patients disclosed the disease to family member (φ = 1.093, 95% CI 1.001-1.457), viral load < 10,000 copies/mL (φ = 1.153, 95% CI 1.015-1.309), hemoglobin level ≥ 11g/dL (φ = 1.145, 95% CI 1.028-1.275), CD4 cell count ≥ 200 per mm3 (φ = 1.147, 95% CI 1.019-1.290), weight ≥ 50 kg (φ = 1.151, 95% CI 1.033-1.275), BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m3 (φ = 1.143, 95% CI 1.007-1.296), fair treatment adherence (φ = 1.867, 95% CI 1.778-1.967), good treatment adherence (φ = 1.200, 95% CI 1.046-1.377), advanced WHO clinical stages (φ = 0.923, 95% CI 0.899-0.946), patients with OCC (φ = 0.821, 95% CI 0.720-0.936) and substance use (φ = 0.876, 95% CI 0.773-0.993) statistically significant predictors for viral load suppression at 5% level of significance. Then, near intensive care of adult patients' whose ages between 25 and 34 years, primary educational level, advanced WHO clinical stage, patients with OCC, and substance users can help them improve their health and live longer. Lastly, further studies should be done on HIV positive adult patients by considering other important independent variables that were not included in this study.

Retention in Care and Virological Failure among Adult HIV-Positive Patients on First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment in Maputo, Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

Access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) is increasingly available worldwide; however, the number of patients lost to follow-up and number of treatment failures continue to challenge most African countries.

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the retention in clinical care and the virological response and their associated factors of HIV-1 patients from the Maputo Military Hospital (MMH).

METHODS

A cross-sectional observational study was conducted to analyse data from patients who started ART between 2016 and 2018 in the MMH.

RESULTS

At the end of 12 months, 75.1% of 1247 patients were active on clinical follow-up and 16.8% had suspected virologic failure (VL > 1000 copies/mm3). Patients younger than 40 years old were more likely to be lost to follow-up when compared to those aged >50 years old, as well as patients who were unemployed and patients with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3. Patients with haemoglobin levels lower than 10 g/dL and with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3 were more likely to have virological failure.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified clinical and sociodemographic determinants of loss to follow-up and in the development of virological failure for HIV-positive patients in clinical care in the MMH. Therefore, HIV programs must consider these factors to increase the screening of patients at high risk of poor outcomes and particularly to strengthen adherence counselling programs.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Predictors of Unsuppressed Viral Load among HIV-Positive Men and Women in Rural and Peri-Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Unsuppressed HIV viral load is an important marker of sustained HIV transmission. We investigated the prevalence, predictors, and high-risk areas of unsuppressed HIV viral load among HIV-positive men and women. Unsuppressed HIV viral load was defined as viral load of ≥400 copies/mL. Data from the HIV Incidence District Surveillance System (HIPSS), a longitudinal study undertaken between June 2014 to June 2016 among men and women aged 15−49 years in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were analysed. A Bayesian geoadditive regression model which includes a spatial effect for a small enumeration area was applied using an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) function while accounting for unobserved factors, non-linear effects of selected continuous variables, and spatial autocorrelation. The prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 46.1% [95% CI: 44.3−47.8]. Predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load were incomplete high school education, being away from home for more than a month, alcohol consumption, no prior knowledge of HIV status, not ever tested for HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), on tuberculosis (TB) medication, having two or more sexual partners in the last 12 months, and having a CD4 cell count of <350 cells/μL. A positive non-linear effect of age, household size, and the number of lifetime HIV tests was identified. The higher-risk pattern of unsuppressed HIV viral load occurred in the northwest and northeast of the study area. Identifying predictors of unsuppressed viral load in a localized geographic area and information from spatial risk maps are important for targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the transmission of HIV.

Higher Risk of Mortality and Virologic Failure in HIV-Infected Patients With High Viral Load at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation: An Observational Cohort Study in Chongqing, China

Background

Viral load (VL) is a strong predictor of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of high baseline VL on antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes among HIV-infected patients.

Methods

This retrospective study observed HIV-infected patients who had baseline VL test at ART initiation between 2015 and 2019 in Chongqing, China. Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the effects of baseline VL on Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality and virologic failure, respectively.

Results

The cohort included 7,176 HIV-infected patients, of whom 38.7% had a baseline VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL. Of the patients who died during follow-up, 58.9% had a baseline VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL. Compared with a baseline VL < 10,000 copies/mL, ART initiation at VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL was significantly associated with the AIDS-related death (adjusted hazard ratio, AHR = 1.4) and virologic failure (adjusted odds ratio, AOR = 2.4). Compared with patients with a baseline VL < 10,000 copies/mL, patients on the recommended first-line regimen with a VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL at ART initiaition had higher mortality rate (5.1 vs. 1.7 per 100 person-years), but there was no significant difference in the mortality accoding to the initial VL level among patients on second-line ART (2.8 vs. 2.7 per 100 person-years). ART initiation ≤ 30 days after HIV diagnosis was associated with a lower risk of AIDS-related death (AHR = 0.6).

Conclusions

ART initiation with VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL was associated with a significantly greater risk of mortality and virologic failure. Optimizing the ART regimen and initiating ART early may help to reduce mortality effectively among patients with a high baseline VL. VL testing for all HIV patients is recommended at HIV diagnosis or on ART initiation.

Incidence of Pneumonia and Predictors Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infected Children at Public Health Institutions in the Northwest Part of Ethiopia: Multicenter Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Introduction

Pneumonia is an inflammation of the lung parenchymal structure secondary to hematogens spread of pathogens, inhalation, or aspiration. It is also one of the most frequently occurring opportunistic infections in HIV-infected children. In Ethiopia, data on the incidence and predictors of opportunistic infection, especially pneumonia, among HIV-infected children is very limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the incidence of pneumonia and predictors among HIV-infected children at public health institutions in the Northwest part of Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 342 HIV-infected children at public health institutions from January 1, 2013 to December 30, 2020. Log rank test was used to compare the survival curves between different explanatory variables. Bivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed for each explanatory variable to check the association with the outcome variable. Variables found to have a p-value of < 0.25 in the bivariable analysis were candidates for the multi-variable proportional hazard model. Cox proportional hazards model was used at 5% level of significance to identify predictors of pneumonia.

Results

This study included 342 records of HIV-infected children who started antiretroviral therapy between the periods of January 1, 2013 to December 30, 2020. The overall incidence rate of pneumonia during the follow-up time was 5.57 (95% CI: 4.4, 7.0) per 100 child-years of observation. Those children who did not take cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR: 3, 95% CI: 1.40, 6.44), being underweight at baseline (AHR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.41, 4.86), having baseline advanced disease (clinical stages III and IV) (AHR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.30, 6.04), and presenting with recently detected viral load (AHR: 5.9, 95% CI: 2.53, 14.06), were more likely to develop pneumonia.

Conclusion

Pneumonia incidence rate was high. Providing prophylaxis and nutritional supplementation for those children with baseline advanced disease stage, low weight for age and detectable viral load would reduce pneumonia occurrence.

Incidence of cardiometabolic diseases in a Lesotho HIV cohort: Evidence for policy decision-making

Background

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has been associated with the development of certain cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). The burden of CMDs amongst ART-experienced patients in sub-Saharan Africa was unknown.

Objective

We quantified the burden of CMDs and identified the associated risk factors in a large treatment cohort on ART at a high-volume facility in Lesotho.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted data from the daily dispensing electronic system and routine clinical records of 785 adults on ART between 2011 and 2015 in Maseru, Lesotho. CMD was defined as a diagnosis of hypertension, diabetes mellitus or dyslipidaemia (singly or collectively). Descriptive statistics were used to describe the disease burden; Kaplan–Meier curves and cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to examine the impact of the ART regimen and identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence of CMD.

Results

Of the 785 participants, 473 (60%) were women. The median age of the group was 42 years, interquartile range (IQR), 36–51 years. The overall incidence of CMD was 5.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.4–7.1) per 100 person-months of follow-up. The median time to onset of CMD was 16.6 months (IQR = 7.4–23.4). ART was not associated with the occurrence of CMD (cause-specific hazard ratio [CHR] = 1.55; 95% CI = 0.14–16.85; P = 0.72). Higher body mass index (BMI) was associated with the occurrence of diabetes mellitus (CHR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.14–1.38; P = 0.026).

Conclusion

The incidence of CMD in this relatively young patient population is low yet noteworthy. We recommend that patients living with HIV and AIDS should be routinely screened for CMD. Higher BMI is generally associated with the occurrence of CMD.

Cognitive ageing is premature among a community sample of optimally treated people living with HIV

OBJECTIVES

Evidence of premature cognitive ageing amongst people living with HIV (PLHIV) remains controversial due to previous research limitations including underpowered studies, samples with suboptimal antiretroviral access, varying rate of virological control, high rate of AIDS, over-representation of non-community samples, and inclusion of inappropriate controls. The current study addresses these limitations, while also considering mental health and non-HIV comorbidity burden to determine whether PLHIV showed premature cognitive ageing compared with closely comparable HIV-negative controls.

METHODS

This study enrolled 254 PLHIV [92% on antiretroviral therapy; 84% with HIV RNA < 50 copies/mL; 15% with AIDS) and 72 HIV-negative gay and bisexual men [mean (SD) age = 49 (10.2) years] from a single primary care clinic in Sydney, Australia. Neurocognitive function was evaluated with the Cogstate Computerized Battery (CCB) at baseline and 6 months after. Linear mixed-effects (LME) models examined main and interaction effects of HIV status and chronological age on the CCB demographically uncorrected global neurocognitive z-score (GZS), adjusting for repeated testing, and then adjusting sequentially for HIV disease markers, mental health and comorbidities.

RESULTS

HIV status and age interacted with a lower GZS (β = -0.43, P < 0.05). Higher level of anxiety symptoms (β = -0.11, P < 0.01), historical AIDS (β = -0.12, P < 0.05) and historical HIV brain involvement (β = -0.12, P < 0.05) were associated with lower GZS.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a robust medium-sized premature ageing effect on cognition in a community sample with optimal HIV care. Our study supports routine screening of cognitive and mental health among PLHIV aged ≥ 50 years.

Immunological Treatment Failure Among Adult Patients Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in East Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Minimizing antiretroviral treatment failure is crucial for improving patient health and for maintaining long-term access to care in low-income settings such as eastern Africa. To develop interventions to support adherence, policymakers must understand the extent and scope of treatment failure in their programs. However, estimates of treatment failure in eastern Africa have been variable and inconclusive.

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to determine the pooled prevalence of immunological failure among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in eastern Africa.

Methods

We performed a systematic search of the PubMed, Google Scholar, Excerpta Medica Database, and the World Health Organization's Hinari portal (which includes the Scopus, African Index Medicus, and African Journals Online databases) databases. Unpublished studies were also accessed from conference websites and university repositories. We used Stata version 14 for data analysis. The Cochrane Q test and I ² test statistic were used to test for heterogeneity across the studies. Due to high levels of heterogeneity, a random effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of immunological failure. Begg and Egger tests of the intercept in the random effects model were used to check for publication bias.

Results

After removing duplicates, 25 articles remained for assessment and screening. After quality screening, 15 articles were deemed eligible and incorporated into the final analysis. The average pooled estimate of immunological treatment failure prevalence was found to be 21.89% (95% CI, 15.14-28.64). In the subgroup analysis conducted by geographic region, the pooled prevalence of immunological treatment failure in Ethiopia was 15.2% (95% CI, 12.27-18.13) while in Tanzania it was 53.93% (95% CI, 48.14-59.73). Neither the results of Egger test or Begg tests suggested publication bias; however, on visual examination, the funnel plot appeared asymmetric. The large heterogeneity across the studies could be explained by study country.

Conclusion

Immunological treatment failure among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in eastern Africa was high, and greater than previously reported. The relatively low rates of treatment failure found in Ethiopia suggest that its health extension program should be studied as a model for improving adherence in the region. (Curr Ther Res Clin Exp. 2021; 82:XXX-XXX) © 2021 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.

Predicting TB treatment outcomes using baseline risk and treatment response markers: developing the PredictTB early treatment completion criteria

Standard treatment of drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis requires six months of treatment. Several randomized clinical trials have attempted to shorten treatment to four months using various strategies but thus far all have failed. The PredictTB trial is an ongoing international randomized clinical trial testing a treatment shortening strategy whereby only drug-sensitive pulmonary TB patients who meet the study early treatment completion criteria are randomized to four vs. six months of treatment. The PredictTB early treatment completion criteria were developed based on a cohort of 92 pulmonary tuberculosis patients treated programmatically through the local tuberculosis treatment program in Cape Town, South Africa, with FDG-PET/CT scans also performed at baseline and week 4 of treatment. Patients were followed for one year after the end of therapy for programmatic treatment outcomes. This methodology paper describes how the PET/CT scans and GeneXpert cycle threshold data of this cohort were analyzed to develop the early treatment completion algorithm currently being used in the PredictTB trial.

Immunological status and virological suppression among HIV-infected adults on highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that viral load ([VL) is a primary tool that clinicians and researchers have used to monitor patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), an antiviral drug against retroviruses. Whereas, CD4 cell counts can only be used to monitor clinical response to ART in the absence of VL testing service. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the level of immunological status and virological suppression, and identify associated factors among human immunodeficiency virus ([HIV)-infected adults who were taking antiretroviral drugs of combination regimen know as highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

METHODS

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized referral hospital from February to April 2018. A total of 323 adult participants on HAART were selected using a systematic random sampling technique and enrolled into the study. Blood samples for viral load determination and CD4 cell count were collected. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with immunologic status and virological suppression in HIV patients on HAART. Odds ratio with 95% CI was used to measure the strength of association.

RESULTS

Virological suppression (VL level < 1000 copies/ml) was found in 82% (95% CI 77.7, 86.1) of study participants, and it has been associated with CD4 cell count between 350 and 499 cells/mm³ (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.56; 95% CI 1.14, 5.75) and > 499 cells/mm³ (AOR = 7.71; 95% CI 3.48, 17.09) at VL testing and current age > 45 years old (AOR = 5.99; 95% CI 2.12, 16.91). Similarly, favorable immunological status (≥ 400 cells/mm³ for male and ≥ 466 cells/mm³ for female) was observed in 52.9% (95% CI 47.4, 58.8) of the study participants. Baseline CD4 cell count of > 200 cells/mm³, age at enrollment of 26 through 40 years old, and urban residence were significantly associated with favorable immunological status.

CONCLUSION

Though the majority of HIV-infected adults who were on HAART had shown viral suppression, the rate of suppression was sub-optimal according to the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target to help end the AIDS pandemic by 2020. Nonetheless, the rate of immunological recovery in the study cohort was low. Hence, early initiation of HAART should be strengthened to achieve good virological suppression and immunological recovery.

Incidence and predictors of virological failure among adult HIV patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Amhara regional referral hospitals; Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Although the United Nations program on HIV/AIDS 90–90-90-targets recommends achieving 90% of viral suppression for patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy by 2020, virological failure is still high and it remains a global public health problem. Therefore, assessing the incidence and predictors of virological failure among adult HIV patients on first-line ART in Amhara regional referral hospitals, Ethiopia is vital to design appropriate prevention strategies for treatment failure and preventing the unnecessary switching to second-line regimens.

Method

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 490 adult HIV patients. The simple random sampling technique was used, and data were entered into Epi data Version 4.2.0.0 and was exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. The proportional hazard assumption was checked, and the Weibull regression was fitted. Cox-Snell residual was used to test the goodness of fit, and the appropriate model was selected by AIC/BIC. Finally, an adjusted hazard ratio with a 95% CI was computed, and variables with P-value < 0.05 in the multivariable analysis were taken as significant predictors of virological failure.

Results

The overall incidence rate of virological failure was 4.9 events per 1000 person-month observations (95%CI: 3.86–6.38). Users of CPT (AHR = 0.55, 95%CI: 0.31–0.97), poor adherence (AHR = 5.46, 95%CI: 3.07–9.74), CD4 Count <=200 cells/mm³ (AHR = 3.9, 95%CI: 1.07–13.9) and 201–350 cells/mm³ (AHR 4.1, 95%CI: 1.12–15) respectively, and NVP based first line drug regimen (AHR = 3.53, 95%CI: 1.73–7.21) were significantly associated with virological failure.

Conclusion

The incidence rate of virological failure was high. CPT, poor adherence, low baseline CD4 count and NVP based first-line drug regimen were independent risk factors associated with virological failure. Therefore, strengthening HIV care intervention and addressing these significant predictors is highly recommended in the study setting.

Bridging the gap between HIV epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance evolution: Modelling the spread of resistance in South Africa

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa substantially reduced AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections. However, its success is threatened by the emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The MARISA (Modelling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa) model presented here aims at investigating the time trends and factors driving NNRTI resistance in South Africa. MARISA is a compartmental model that includes the key aspects of the local HIV epidemic: continuum of care, disease progression, and gender. The dynamics of NNRTI resistance emergence and transmission are then added to this framework. Model parameters are informed using data from HIV cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) and literature estimates, or fitted to UNAIDS estimates. Using this novel approach of triangulating clinical and resistance data from various sources, MARISA reproduces the time trends of HIV in South Africa in 2005–2016, with a decrease in new infections, undiagnosed individuals, and AIDS-related deaths. MARISA captures the dynamics of the spread of NNRTI resistance: high levels of acquired drug resistance (ADR, in 83% of first-line treatment failures in 2016), and increasing transmitted drug resistance (TDR, in 8.1% of ART initiators in 2016). Simulation of counter-factual scenarios reflecting alternative public health policies shows that increasing treatment coverage would have resulted in fewer new infections and deaths, at the cost of higher TDR (11.6% in 2016 for doubling the treatment rate). Conversely, improving switching to second-line treatment would have led to lower TDR (6.5% in 2016 for doubling the switching rate) and fewer new infections and deaths. Implementing drug resistance testing would have had little impact. The rapid ART scale-up and inadequate switching to second-line treatment were the key drivers of the spread of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. However, even though some interventions could have substantially reduced the level of NNRTI resistance, no policy including NNRTI-based first line regimens could have prevented this spread. Thus, by combining epidemiological data on HIV in South Africa with biological data on resistance evolution, our modelling approach identified key factors driving NNRTI resistance, highlighting the need of alternative first-line regimens.

Resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) threatens the long-term success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) roll-out in South Africa. We developed a compartmental model integrating the local HIV epidemiology with biological mechanisms of drug resistance. A first dimension of the model accounts for the continuum of care: infection, diagnosis, first-line treatment with suppression or failure, and second-line treatment. Other dimensions include: disease progression (CD4 counts), gender, and acquisition and transmission of NNRTI resistance. Whenever possible, we informed the parameters using the data available from local cohorts. Other parameters were informed using literature or UNAIDS estimates. The model captured the rise of NNRTI resistance during the period. We assessed the impact of counter-factual scenarios reflecting alternative countrywide policies during the period 2005 to 2016, considering either increasing ART coverage, improving management of treatment failure, broadening ART eligibility, or implementing drug resistance testing before ART initiation. We identified key drivers of the NNRTI resistance epidemic: large-scale ART roll-out and insufficient monitoring of first-line treatment failure. The model also suggested that no policy including NNRTI-based first line regimens could have prevented the spread of NNRTI resistance.

Predictors of mortality in adult people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nepal: A retrospective cohort study, 2004-2013

Background

In Nepal, since 2004, 19,388 people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to measure mortality rate and to identify predictors of mortality in adult (≥15 years) PLHIV who initiated ART between 2004 and 2013 in five large ART centers of Nepal.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study of 3,799 (60.5% male) adult PLHIV uses secondary data collected from standard ART registers. Time from ART initiation (baseline) to death or censoring (loss to follow-up or December 31, 2013) was assessed. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate the probability of mortality over time. Predictors of mortality were determined using Cox-regression models.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 6.98 (95% CI: 6.46–7.54) per 100 person-years, 4.11 (95% CI: 3.53–4.79) in females and 9.14 (95% CI: 8.36–9.99) in males. Mortality rates were higher in early months after ART initiation, particularly in the first three months. Baseline predictors of mortality were ART center, male gender (adjusted HR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.69–2.57), residence outside the ART district (AHR = 1.45, 95% CI:1.19–1.76), World Health Organization clinical stage III (AHR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.13–2.46) and IV (AHR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45–3.36), bedridden <50% time in the last month (AHR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.52–2.41), bedridden >50% time in the last month (AHR = 3.82, 95% CI: 2.95–4.94), lower bodyweight/kg (AHR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03–1.05), CD4 count <150 cell/mm³ (AHR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.05–4.34) and treatment not switched to second-line regimen (AHR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.35–6.90).

Conclusions

Mortality rates were higher soon after ART initiation, particularly in males and gradually decreased over time. Poor baseline clinical characteristics were significantly associated with higher mortality. Increased ART coverage with decentralization of sites to lower levels including community dispensing, differentiated and improved service delivery and initiation of ART at a less advanced disease stage may reduce early mortality.

A superiority of viral load over CD4 cell count when predicting mortality in HIV patients on therapy

Background

CD4 cell count has been identified to be an essential component in monitoring HIV treatment outcome. However, CD4 cell count monitoring sometimes fails to predict virological failure resulting in unnecessary switch of treatment lines which causes drug resistance and limitations of treatment options. This study assesses the use of both viral load (HIV RNA) and CD4 cell count in the monitoring of HIV/AIDS progression.

Methods

Time-homogeneous Markov models were fitted, one on CD4 cell count monitoring and the other on HIV RNA monitoring. Effects of covariates; gender, age, CD4 baseline, HIV RNA baseline and adherence to treatment were assessed for each of the fitted models. Assessment of the fitted models was done using prevalence plots and the likelihood ratio tests. The analysis was done using the “msm” package in R.

Results

Results from the analysis show that viral load monitoring predicts deaths of HIV/AIDS patients better than CD4 cell count monitoring. Assessment of the fitted models shows that viral load monitoring is a better predictor of HIV/AIDS progression than CD4 cell count.

Conclusion

From this study one can conclude that although patients take more time to achieve a normal CD4 cell count and less time to achieve an undetectable viral load, once the CD4 cell count is normal, mortality risks are reduced. Therefore, both viral load monitoring and CD4 count monitoring can be used to provide useful information which can be used to improve life expectance of patients living with HIV. However, viral load monitoring is a better predictor of HIV/AIDS progression than CD4 cell count and hence viral load is deemed superior.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3781-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

[Hospital admission and mortality causes of HIV patients in a third level hospital]

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to describe the HIV population admitted to a tertiary level hospital and analyze hospital admission and mortality causes during hospitalization.

METHODS

Observational, retrospective study carried out in a third level Hospital. Inclusion criteria: Patients ≥18 years with a prescription of ART and diagnosis of HIV known or discovered during admission. It was accepted hospital ward discharge diagnose as hospitalization causes. Clinical, analytical outcomes as well as causes of mortality were collected.

RESULTS

Among 162 hospitalized HIV infected, 128 met the inclusion criteria, 8 of those were diagnosed as naive HIV patients. 79.7% were male; Age 50.29 ± 9.81 years. The main reasons for hospital admissions (38.3%) were certain infectious and parasitic diseases (ICD-10 Classification) and more specifically human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease represented 24,1% of whole hospitalizations. Mortality rates of ≥18 years HIV patients that were admitted to hospital during 2016-2017 were the 13.52%. The main causes of death were certain infectious and parasitic diseases followed by malignancies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasize the need of intensifying the HIV early diagnosis as well as Pneumocystis jirovecii primary prophylaxis. Insist on ART adherence from infectology follow-up appointment and pharmacy care consultations, educate clinics on ART treatment prescription during hospital admission as well as requesting viral and CD4 lymphocytes loads to every HIV admitted patients.

"My future is bright…I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART.

RESULTS

Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.

Rethinking retention: Mapping interactions between multiple factors that influence long-term engagement in HIV care

BACKGROUND

Failure to keep people living with HIV engaged in life-long care and treatment has serious implications for individual and population-level health. Nested within a four-province study of HIV care and treatment outcomes, we explored the dynamic role of social and service-related factors influencing retention in HIV care in Zambia.

METHODS

From a stratified random sample of 31 facilities, eight clinics were selected, one urban and one rural from each province. Across these sites we conducted a total of 69 in-depth interviews, including with patients (including pregnant women) engaged in-care (n = 28), disengaged from care (n = 15), engaged facility transferee (n = 12), and friends/family of deceased patients (n = 14). At the same sites we conducted 24 focus group discussions with a total of 192 lay and professional healthcare workers (HCWs). Two-day observations in each of the eight facilities helped triangulate data on operational context, provider relations and patient-provider interactions. We ordered and analysed data using an adapted version of Ewart's Social Action Theory.

RESULTS

Three overarching findings emerged. First, the experience of living with HIV and engaging in HIV care in Zambia is a social, not individual experience, influenced by social and gendered norms and life goals including financial stability, raising family and living stigma-free. Second, patients and their networks act collectively to negotiate and navigate HIV care. Anticipated responses from social network influenced patients' willingness to engage in care, while emotional and material support from those networks influenced individuals' capacity to remain in HIV care. Lastly, health system factors were most influential where they facilitated or undermined peoples' collective approach to health service use. Participants living with HIV reported facilitation of both their initial and continued engagement in care where services involved social networks, such as during couples testing and community outreach. Conversely, service features that were poorly aligned with respondents' social reality (e.g. workplace obligations) hindered long-term engagement.

CONCLUSIONS

This study moves beyond listing barriers or socio-ecological groupings, to explain how social and health systems interact to produce HIV care outcomes. Our findings challenge the implicit assumption of individual agency underpinning many retention studies to highlight the social nature of illness and healthcare utilization for HIV in Zambia. This understanding of collective action for accessing and remaining in HIV care should underpin future efforts to revise and reform HIV and potentially other chronic service models and systems.

Rethinking retention: Mapping interactions between multiple factors that influence long-term engagement in HIV care

BACKGROUND

Failure to keep people living with HIV engaged in life-long care and treatment has serious implications for individual and population-level health. Nested within a four-province study of HIV care and treatment outcomes, we explored the dynamic role of social and service-related factors influencing retention in HIV care in Zambia.

METHODS

From a stratified random sample of 31 facilities, eight clinics were selected, one urban and one rural from each province. Across these sites we conducted a total of 69 in-depth interviews, including with patients (including pregnant women) engaged in-care (n = 28), disengaged from care (n = 15), engaged facility transferee (n = 12), and friends/family of deceased patients (n = 14). At the same sites we conducted 24 focus group discussions with a total of 192 lay and professional healthcare workers (HCWs). Two-day observations in each of the eight facilities helped triangulate data on operational context, provider relations and patient-provider interactions. We ordered and analysed data using an adapted version of Ewart's Social Action Theory.

RESULTS

Three overarching findings emerged. First, the experience of living with HIV and engaging in HIV care in Zambia is a social, not individual experience, influenced by social and gendered norms and life goals including financial stability, raising family and living stigma-free. Second, patients and their networks act collectively to negotiate and navigate HIV care. Anticipated responses from social network influenced patients' willingness to engage in care, while emotional and material support from those networks influenced individuals' capacity to remain in HIV care. Lastly, health system factors were most influential where they facilitated or undermined peoples' collective approach to health service use. Participants living with HIV reported facilitation of both their initial and continued engagement in care where services involved social networks, such as during couples testing and community outreach. Conversely, service features that were poorly aligned with respondents' social reality (e.g. workplace obligations) hindered long-term engagement.

CONCLUSIONS

This study moves beyond listing barriers or socio-ecological groupings, to explain how social and health systems interact to produce HIV care outcomes. Our findings challenge the implicit assumption of individual agency underpinning many retention studies to highlight the social nature of illness and healthcare utilization for HIV in Zambia. This understanding of collective action for accessing and remaining in HIV care should underpin future efforts to revise and reform HIV and potentially other chronic service models and systems.

The right combination - treatment outcomes among HIV-positive patients initiating first-line fixed-dose antiretroviral therapy in a public sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. Fixed-dose combination (FDC) single-pill regimens, introduced in South Africa in April 2013, has simplified pill taking. We evaluated treatment outcomes among patients initiated on a FDC compared to a similar multi-pill ART regimen in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of ART-naïve HIV-positive non-pregnant adult (≥18 years) patients without tuberculosis who initiated first-line ART on tenofovir and emtricitabine or lamivudine with efavirenz at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We compared those initiated on a multi-pill ART regimen (3–5 pills/day; September 1, 2011–August 31, 2012) to those initiated on a FDC ART regimen (one pill/day; September 1, 2013–August 31, 2014). Treatment outcomes included attrition (combination of lost to follow-up and mortality), missed medical visits, and virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/mL) by 12 months post-ART initiation. Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used to estimate the association between FDCs vs multiple pills and treatment outcomes.

Results

We included 3151 patients in our analysis; 2230 (70.8%) patients initiated multi-pill ART and 921 (29.2%) patients initiated on a FDC. By 12 months post-initiation, attrition (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.77–1.24) was similar across regimen types (FDC vs multi-pill). Although not significant, patients on a FDC were marginally more likely to achieve viral suppression by 6 (adjusted relative rate [aRR]: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99–1.23) and 12 months (aRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.92–1.36) on ART. Patients initiated on a FDC were significantly less likely to miss medical visits during the first 12 months of treatment (aRR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52–0.83).

Conclusion

Our results suggest FDCs may have a role to play in supporting patient adherence and medical monitoring through improved medical visit attendance. This may potentially improve treatment outcomes later on in treatment.

Using biomarkers to predict TB treatment duration (Predict TB): a prospective, randomized, noninferiority, treatment shortening clinical trial

Background: By the early 1980s, tuberculosis treatment was shortened from 24 to 6 months, maintaining relapse rates of 1-2%. Subsequent trials attempting shorter durations have failed, with 4-month arms consistently having relapse rates of 15-20%. One trial shortened treatment only among those without baseline cavity on chest x-ray and whose month 2 sputum culture converted to negative. The 4-month arm relapse rate decreased to 7% but was still significantly worse than the 6-month arm (1.6%, P<0.01).  We hypothesize that PET/CT characteristics at baseline, PET/CT changes at one month, and markers of residual bacterial load will identify patients with tuberculosis who can be cured with 4 months (16 weeks) of standard treatment.

Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, phase 2b, noninferiority clinical trial of pulmonary tuberculosis participants. Those eligible start standard of care treatment. PET/CT scans are done at weeks 0, 4, and 16 or 24. Participants who do not meet early treatment completion criteria (baseline radiologic severity, radiologic response at one month, and GeneXpert-detectable bacilli at four months) are placed in Arm A (24 weeks of standard therapy). Those who meet the early treatment completion criteria are randomized at week 16 to continue treatment to week 24 (Arm B) or complete treatment at week 16 (Arm C). The primary endpoint compares the treatment success rate at 18 months between Arms B and C.

Discussion: Multiple biomarkers have been assessed to predict TB treatment outcomes. This study uses PET/CT scans and GeneXpert (Xpert) cycle threshold to risk stratify participants. PET/CT scans are not applicable to global public health but could be used in clinical trials to stratify participants and possibly become a surrogate endpoint. If the Predict TB trial is successful, other immunological biomarkers or transcriptional signatures that correlate with treatment outcome may be identified. Trial Registration: NCT02821832

Marked sex differences in all-cause mortality on antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

While women and girls are disproportionately at risk of HIV acquisition, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), globally men and women comprise similar proportions of people living with HIV who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy. However, men represent only approximately 41% of those receiving antiretroviral therapy globally. There has been limited study of men’s outcomes in treatment programmes, despite data suggesting that men living with HIV and engaged in treatment programmes have higher mortality rates. This systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) aims to assess differential all-cause mortality between men and women living with HIV and on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC.

Methods

A SR was conducted through searching PubMed, Ovid Global Health and EMBASE for peer-reviewed, published observational studies reporting differential outcomes by sex of adults (≥15 years) living with HIV, in treatment programmes and on antiretroviral medications in LMIC. For studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality by sex, quality assessment using Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (cohort studies) and an MA using a random-effects model (Stata 14.0) were conducted.

Results

A total of 11,889 records were screened, and 6726 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. There were 31 included studies in the final MA reporting 42 HRs, with a total sample size of 86,233 men and 117,719 women, and total time on antiretroviral therapy of 1555 months. The pooled hazard ratio (pHR) showed a 46% increased hazard of death for men while on antiretroviral treatment (1.35–1.59). Increased hazard was significant across geographic regions (sub-Saharan Africa: pHR 1.41 (1.28–1.56); Asia: 1.77 (1.42–2.21)) and persisted over time on treatment (≤12 months: 1.42 (1.21–1.67); 13–35 months: 1.48 (1.23–1.78); 36–59 months: 1.50 (1.18–1.91); 61 to 108 months: 1.49 (1.29–1.71)).

Conclusions

Men living with HIV have consistently and significantly greater hazards of all-cause mortality compared with women while on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC. This effect persists over time on treatment. The clinical and population-level prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy will only be realized if programmes can improve male engagement, diagnosis, earlier initiation of therapy, clinical outcomes and can support long-term adherence and retention.

Evaluating the utility of provider-recorded clinical status in the medical records of HIV-positive adults in a limited-resource setting

Provider-reported summaries of clinical status may assist with clinical management of HIV in resource poor settings if they reflect underlying biological processes associated with HIV disease progression. However, their ability to do so is rarely evaluated. Therefore, we aimed to assess the relationship between a provider-recorded summary of clinical status and indicators of HIV progression. Data were abstracted from 201 randomly selected medical records at a large HIV clinic in the Dominican Republic. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the relationship between provider-assigned clinical status and demographic (gender, age, nationality, education) and clinical factors (reported medication adherence, CD4 cell count, viral load). The mean age of patients was 41.2 (SD = ±10.9) years and most were female (n = 115, 57%). None of the examined characteristics were significantly associated with provider-recorded clinical status. Higher CD4 cell counts were more likely for females (OR = 2.2 CI: 1.12-4.31) and less likely for those with higher viral loads (OR = 0.33 CI: 0.15-0.72). Poorer adherence and lower CD4 cell counts were significantly associated with higher viral loads (OR = 4.46 CI: 1.11-20.29 and 6.84 CI: 1.47-37.23, respectively). Clinics using provider-reported summaries of clinical status should evaluate the performance of these assessments to ensure they are associated with biologic indicators of disease progression.

Morbidity and mortality according to latest CD4+ cell count among HIV positive individuals in South Africa who enrolled in project Phidisa

BACKGROUND

Short-term morbidity and mortality rates for HIV positive soldiers in the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) would inform decisions about deployment and HIV disease management. Risks were determined according to the latest CD4+ cell count and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV positive individuals in the SANDF and their dependents.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 7,114 participants were enrolled and followed for mortality over a median of 4.7 years (IQR: 1.9, 7.1 years). For a planned subset (5,976), progression of disease (POD) and grade 4, potentially life-threatening events were also ascertained. CD4+ count and viral load were measured every 3 to 6 months. Poisson regression was used to compare event rates by latest CD4+ count (<50, 50-99, 100-199, 200-349, 350-499, 500+) with a focus on upper three strata, and to estimate relative risks (RRs) (ART/no ART). Median entry CD4+ was 207 cells/mm3. During follow-up over 70% were prescribed ART. Over follow-up 1,226 participants died; rates ranged from 57.6 (< 50 cells) to 0.8 (500+ cells) per 100 person years (py). Compared to those with latest CD4+ 200-349 (2.2/100 py), death rates were significantly lower (p<0.001), as expected, for those with 350-499 (0.9/100 py) and with 500+ cells (0.8/100 py). The composite outcome of death, POD or grade 4 events occurred in 2,302 participants (4,045 events); rates were similar in higher CD4+ count strata (9.4 for 350-499 and 7.9 for 500+ cells) and lower than those with counts 200-349 cells (13.5) (p<0.001). For those with latest CD4+ 350+ cells, 63% of the composite outcomes (680 of 1,074) were grade 4 events.

CONCLUSION

Rates of morbidity and mortality are lowest among those with CD4+ count of 350 or higher and rates do not differ for those with counts of 350-499 versus 500+ cells. Grade 4 events are the predominant morbidity for participants with CD4+ counts of 350+ cells.

Treatment outcomes in a decentralized antiretroviral therapy program: a comparison of two levels of care in north central Nigeria

Background. Decentralization of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services is a key strategy to achieving universal access to treatment for people living with HIV/AIDS. Our objective was to assess clinical and laboratory outcomes within a decentralized program in Nigeria. Methods. Using a tiered hub-and-spoke model to decentralize services, a tertiary hospital scaled down services to 13 secondary-level hospitals using national and program guidelines. We obtained sociodemographic, clinical, and immunovirologic data on previously antiretroviral drug naïve patients aged ≥15 years that received HAART for at least 6 months and compared treatment outcomes between the prime and satellite sites. Results. Out of 7,747 patients, 3729 (48.1%) were enrolled at the satellites while on HAART, prime site patients achieved better immune reconstitution based on CD4+ cell counts at 12 (P < 0.001) and 24 weeks (P < 0.001) with similar responses at 48 weeks (P = 0.11) and higher rates of viral suppression (<400 c/mL) at 12 (P < 0.001) and 48 weeks (P = 0.03), but similar responses at 24 weeks (P = 0.21). Mortality was 2.3% versus 5.0% (P < 0.001) at prime and satellite sites, while transfer rate was 8.7% versus 5.5% (P = 0.001) at prime and satellites. Conclusion. ART decentralization is feasible in resource-limited settings, but efforts have to be intensified to maintain good quality of care.

Patient retention, clinical outcomes and attrition-associated factors of HIV-infected patients enrolled in Zimbabwe's National Antiretroviral Therapy Programme, 2007-2010

Background

Since establishment of Zimbabwe's National Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Programme in 2004, ART provision has expanded from <5,000 to 369,431 adults by 2011. However, patient outcomes are unexplored.

Objective

To determine improvement in health status, retention and factors associated with attrition among HIV-infected patients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective review of abstracted patient records of adults ≥15 years who initiated ART from 2007 to 2009 was done. Frequencies and medians were calculated for rates of retention in care and changes in key health status outcomes at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors associated with attrition.

Results

Of the 3,919 patients, 64% were female, 86% were either WHO clinical stage III or IV. Rates of patient retention at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months were 90.7%, 78.1%, 68.8% and 64.4%, respectively. After ART initiation, median weight gains at 6, 12, and 24 months were 3, 4.5, and 5.0 kgs whilst median CD4+ cell count gains at 6, 12 and 24 months were 122, 157 and 279 cells/µL respectively. Factors associated with an increased risk of attrition included male gender (AHR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1–1.4), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), lower baseline body weight (AHR 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4–2. 8) and accessing care from higher level healthcare facilities (AHR 3.5; 95% 1.1–11.2).

Conclusions

Our findings with regard to retention as well as clinical and immunological improvements following uptake of ART, are similar to what has been found in other settings. Factors influencing attrition also mirror those found in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These findings suggest the need to strengthen earlier diagnosis and treatment to further improve treatment outcomes. Whilst decentralisation improves ART coverage it should be coupled with strategies aimed at improving patient retention.

Baseline factors associated with mortality within six months after admission among hospitalized HIV-1 patients in Shenyang, China

OBJECTIVE

Short-term mortality rates remain high among critically ill human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) patients though long-term mortality rates have dropped. Baseline risk factors for short-term mortality have not yet been determined in China. In this paper, we herein describe clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, causes of clinical deterioration, and risk factors associated with mortality among HIV-1 patients within six months after hospital admission.

METHODS

We carried out a prospective study of hospitalized patients in advanced stages of HIV infection. These patients started antiretroviral therapy three or four weeks after admission. Follow-up was conducted for a period of six months. We used a multivariate logistic-regression analysis to identify risk factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 141 patients met our inclusion criteria. The mean age was 41 years. Fever and weight loss were the most common clinical manifestations of advanced HIV disease. Oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, cytomegaloviremia, and pneumocystis pneumonia were the most common opportunistic infections. Significantly decreased CD4+ T-cell counts, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, hyponatremia, as well as elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and glutamic alanine transaminase levels were common laboratory test abnormalities. The mortality rate was 21.3%. The patients who died were more likely than the survivors to have low CD4+ T-cell counts as well as low creatinine, hemoglobin, albumin, and serum sodium levels while also having longer intervals of fever and higher CRP levels. A multivariate analysis demonstrated that the independent risk factors for mortality were active tuberculosis [odds ratio (OR): 2.681; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.006-7.142; p=0.049], hyponatremia (OR: 3.027; 95% CI, 1.238-7.401; p=0.015), and being at clinical stage 4 (as defined by the World Health Organization) (OR: 9.492; 95% CI, 1.200-75.065; p=0.033) within the first six months of admission.

CONCLUSION

Special consideration should be given to patients who have active tuberculosis, are at clinical stage 4, and present with hyponatremia upon admission as these were found to be important factors associated with mortality within six months of hospital admission in HIV-1 patients.