Evaluation of response strategies against epidemics due to Neisseria meningitidis C in Niger

The Bacterial Meningitis Epidemic in Banalia in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2021

BACKGROUND

The Banalia health zone in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported a meningitis epidemic in 2021 that evolved outside the epidemic season. We assessed the effects of the meningitis epidemic response.

METHODS

The standard case definition was used to identify cases. Care was provided to 2651 in-patients, with 8% of them laboratory tested, and reactive vaccination was conducted. To assess the effects of reactive vaccination and treatment with ceftriaxone, a statistical analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 2662 suspected cases of meningitis with 205 deaths were reported. The highest number of cases occurred in the 30-39 years age group (927; 38.5%). Ceftriaxone contributed to preventing deaths with a case fatality rate that decreased from 70.4% before to 7.7% after ceftriaxone was introduced (p = 0.001). Neisseria meningitidis W was isolated, accounting for 47/57 (82%), of which 92% of the strains belonged to the clonal complex 11. Reactive vaccination of individuals in Banalia aged 1-19 years with a meningococcal multivalent conjugate (ACWY) vaccine (Menactra®) coverage of 104.6% resulted in an 82% decline in suspected meningitis cases (incidence rate ratio, 0.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.80; p = 0.041).

CONCLUSION

Despite late detection (two months) and reactive vaccination four months after crossing the epidemic threshold, interventions implemented in Banalia contributed to the control of the epidemic.

High-spatial resolution epidemic surveillance of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt in Burkina Faso

Despite improved surveillance capacities and WHO recommendations for subdistrict analysis, routine epidemic surveillance of acute bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remains largely limited to the district level. We evaluated the appropriateness and performance of analyses at higher spatial resolution. We used suspected meningitis surveillance data at health centre (HC) resolution from Burkina Faso from 14 health districts spanning years 2004-2014 and analysed them using spatio-temporal statistics and generative models. An operational analysis compared epidemic signals at district and HC-level using weekly incidence thresholds. Eighty-four percent (N = 98/116) of epidemic clusters spanned only one HC-week. Spatial propagation of epidemic clusters was mostly limited to 10-30 km. During the 2004-2009 (with serogroup A meningitis) and 2010-2014 (after serogroup A elimination) period, using weekly HC-level incidence thresholds of 100 and 50 per 100,000 respectively, we found a gain in epidemic detection and timeliness in 9 (41% of total) and 10 (67%), respectively, district years with at least one HC signal. Individual meningitis epidemics expanded little in space, suggesting that a health centre level analysis is most appropriate for epidemic surveillance. Epidemic surveillance could gain in precision and timeliness by higher spatial resolution. The optimal threshold should be defined depending on the current background incidence of bacterial meningitis.

Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup W Meningitis Epidemic in Togo, 2016

BACKGROUND

During 2014, 4 regions in Togo within the African meningitis belt implemented vaccination campaigns with meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV). From January to July 2016, Togo experienced its first major Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W (NmW) outbreak. We describe the epidemiology, response, and management of the outbreak.

METHODS

Suspected, probable, and confirmed cases were identified using World Health Organization case definitions. Through case-based surveillance, epidemiologic and laboratory data were collected for each case. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction, culture, or latex agglutination. Vaccination campaigns were conducted in affected districts.

RESULTS

From January 11 to July 5, 2016, 1995 suspected meningitis cases were reported, with 128 deaths. Among them, 479 (24.0%) were confirmed by laboratory testing, and 94 (4.7%) and 1422 (71.3%) remained as probable and suspected cases, respectively. Seven epidemic districts had cumulative attack rates greater than 100 per 100 000 population. Of the confirmed cases, 91.5% were NmW; 39 of 40 available NmW isolates were sequence type-11/clonal complex-11.

CONCLUSIONS

This outbreak demonstrates that, although high coverage with MACV has reduced serogroup A outbreaks, large meningococcal meningitis outbreaks due to other serogroups may continue to occur; effective multivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines could improve meningococcal disease prevention within meningitis belt populations.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response

BACKGROUND

After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts.

METHODS

We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used.

RESULTS

We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall.

CONCLUSIONS

Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Epidemiology of Bacterial Meningitis in the Nine Years Since Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine Introduction, Niger, 2010-2018

BACKGROUND

In 2010, Niger and other meningitis belt countries introduced a meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV). We describe the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis in Niger from 2010 to 2018.

METHODS

Suspected and confirmed meningitis cases from January 1, 2010 to July 15, 2018 were obtained from national aggregate and laboratory surveillance. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens were analyzed by culture and/or polymerase chain reaction. Annual incidence was calculated as cases per 100 000 population. Selected isolates obtained during 2016-2017 were characterized by whole-genome sequencing.

RESULTS

Of the 21 142 suspected cases of meningitis, 5590 were confirmed: Neisseria meningitidis ([Nm] 85%), Streptococcus pneumoniae ([Sp] 13%), and Haemophilus influenzae ([Hi] 2%). No NmA cases occurred after 2011. Annual incidence per 100 000 population was more dynamic for Nm (0.06-7.71) than for Sp (0.18-0.70) and Hi (0.01-0.23). The predominant Nm serogroups varied over time (NmW in 2010-2011, NmC in 2015-2018, and both NmC and NmX in 2017-2018). Meningococcal meningitis incidence was highest in the regions of Niamey, Tillabery, Dosso, Tahoua, and Maradi. The NmW isolates were clonal complex (CC)11, NmX were CC181, and NmC were CC10217.

CONCLUSIONS

After MACV introduction, we observed an absence of NmA, the emergence and continuing burden of NmC, and an increase in NmX. Niger's dynamic Nm serogroup distribution highlights the need for strong surveillance programs to inform vaccine policy.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

The association between respiratory tract infection incidence and localised meningitis epidemics: an analysis of high-resolution surveillance data from Burkina Faso

Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt consist of localised meningitis epidemics (LME) that reach attack proportions of 1% within a few weeks. A meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine was introduced in meningitis belt countries from 2010 on, but LME due to other serogroups continue to occur. The mechanisms underlying LME are poorly understood, but an association with respiratory pathogens has been hypothesised. We analysed national routine surveillance data in high spatial resolution (health centre level) from 13 districts in Burkina Faso, 2004–2014. We defined LME as a weekly incidence rate of suspected meningitis ≥75 per 100,000 during ≥2 weeks; and high incidence episodes of respiratory tract infections (RTI) as the 5^th quintile of monthly incidences. We included 10,334 health centre month observations during the meningitis season (January-May), including 85 with LME, and 1891 (1820) high-incidence episodes of upper (lower) RTI. In mixed effects logistic regression accounting for spatial structure, and controlling for dust conditions, relative air humidity and month, the occurrence of LME was strongly associated with high incidence episodes of upper (odds ratio 23.9, 95%-confidence interval 3.1–185.3), but not lower RTI. In the African meningitis belt, meningitis epidemics may be triggered by outbreaks of upper RTI.