Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with Dengue: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Airway breathing circulation dengue: a case of multifactorial shock due to major trauma and severe dengue infection

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most common arboviral illness reported globally, endemic to most tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Dengue Shock Syndrome is a rare complication of severe Dengue infection resulting in haemorrhagic complications and refractory hypotension. We report on a case of severe dengue diagnosed in a patient with major trauma and illustrate some of the potential challenges and considerations in the clinical management of such cases.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 49-year-old female presented following a road trauma incident with multiple abdominal injuries requiring urgent laparotomy. Her recovery in Intensive Care Unit was complicated by the development of Dengue Shock Syndrome characterised by a falling haemoglobin and platelet count, multiorgan dysfunction and prolonged hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue Shock Syndrome may complicate fluid management and bleeding control in major trauma cases. Awareness of Dengue, particularly in endemic areas and returned travellers may help facilitate early diagnosis and management of complications.

Risk factors associated with dengue complications and death: A cohort study in Peru

BACKGROUND

Dengue has emerged as an unprecedented epidemic in Peru, and it is anticipated that this issue will escalate further owing to climate change. This study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with death from dengue in patients treated at Hospital II in Pucallpa, Peru.

METHODOLOGY

This retrospective cohort study collected information from the medical records of patients with a diagnosis of dengue treated at Hospital II Pucallpa-Peru between January 2019 and March 2023. The primary outcome was death, and the secondary outcome was death, development of severe dengue, or Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Cox regression models were used to determine risk factors.

FINDINGS

The clinical records of 152 patients were evaluated, with a median age of 27.5 years (interquartile range, 11-45). Among all patients, 29 (19.1%) developed severe dengue, 31 (20.4%) were admitted to the ICU, and 13 (8.6%) died during follow-up. In the survival analysis, bilirubin >1.2 mg/dL was associated with a higher risk of death aHR: 11.38 (95% CI: 1.2 106.8). Additionally, factors associated with poor prognosis included having 1 to 3 comorbidities aRR: 1.92 (1.2 to 3.2), AST ≥251 U/L aRR: 6.79 (2.2 to 21.4), history of previous dengue aRR: 1.84 (1.0 to 3.3), and fibrinogen ≥400 mg/dL aRR: 2.23 (1.2 to 4.1).

SIGNIFICANCE

Elevated bilirubin was associated with death from dengue, whereas an increase in comorbidities and a history of previous dengue were related to a poor prognosis of the disease. Early identification of severe dengue would be more feasible with improved access to laboratory testing, particularly in tropical areas with a high dengue incidence.

Dengue Burden and Factors Influencing Severity in Honduras: A Descriptive and Analytical Study

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a disease that accounts for a major morbidity and mortality in Honduras.

METHODS

This descriptive study used an analytical component based on the data from the National Virology Laboratory between 2016-2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the classification of dengue without warning signs (DWOS), dengue with warning signs (DWS), and severe dengue (SD).

RESULTS

Overall, 14,687 dengue cases were included; 50.1% had DWOS, 36.5% had DWS, and 13.4% had SD. Patients that were more associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were patients in the age groups 1-4 years (DWS OR 1.61; 95%CI:1.33-1.94), (SD OR 1.52; 95% CI:1.26-1.84), 5-9 years (DWS OR 2.01; 95% CI:1.68-2.40), (SD OR 2.00; 95% CI:1.67-2.40), and 10-19 years (DWS OR 1.55; 95% CI:1.30-1.85) (SD OR 1.57; 95% CI:1.31-1.88). The departments that were associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were La Paz (OR 6.35; 95% CI:3.53-11.42), (OR 10.94; 95% CI:5.96-20.08), Copán (OR 6.94; 95% CI:5.05-9.53) (OR 7.33; 95% CI: 5.35-10.03), Valle (OR 5.22; 95% CI:1.25-21.82) (OR 10.71; 95% CI:2.21-51.88).

CONCLUSIONS

During the study period, dengue presented endemic behavior, with peaks consistent with the last two epidemics in Honduras in 2015 and 2019. The main factors associated with dengue severity were age< 19 years, male sex, and being from La Paz, Copán, or Valle.

Forecasting weekly dengue incidence in Sri Lanka: Modified Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling approach

Dengue poses a significant and multifaceted public health challenge in Sri Lanka, encompassing both preventive and curative aspects. Accurate dengue incidence forecasting is pivotal for effective surveillance and disease control. To address this, we developed an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model tailored for predicting weekly dengue cases in the Colombo district. The modeling process drew on comprehensive weekly dengue fever data from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports (WER), spanning January 2015 to August 2020. Following rigorous model selection, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model, augmented with an autoregressive component (AR) of order 16, emerged as the best-fitted model. It underwent initial calibration and fine-tuning using data from January 2015 to August 2020, and was validated against independent 2000 data. Selection criteria included parameter significance, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). Importantly, the residuals of the ARIMA model conformed to the assumptions of randomness, constant variance, and normality affirming its suitability. The forecasts closely matched observed dengue incidence, offering a valuable tool for public health decision-makers. However, an increased percentage error was noted in late 2020, likely attributed to factors including potential underreporting due to COVID-19-related disruptions amid rising dengue cases. This research contributes to the critical task of managing dengue outbreaks and underscores the dynamic challenges posed by external influences on disease surveillance.

Harness risk stratification of diabetic patients with dengue in a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Identifying predictors of severe dengue (SD) is key for triage and management of patients as well as for advising travellers to countries where dengue is endemic. In this, meta-analyses have raised diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for SD and a prognostic factor for dengue-related mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess whether diabetic patients (DPs) are at increased risk for SD in comparison to non-diabetic patients (NDPs) in a setting of high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and increasing endemicity for dengue.

METHODS

In a cohort study conducted during the 2019 dengue epidemic on Reunion Island, we estimated the risk ratios (RR) of DPs for SD (WHO 2009 definition), hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, critical care need or death in the ICU, and scales rating severity or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), among confirmed cases of dengue (positive RT-PCR or NS1 antigen).

RESULTS

In a Poisson regression model adjusted for age, gender and comorbidity, DPs were more likely to develop SD (adjusted RR: 1.46, 95%CI 1.10-1.95), to be hospitalised, admitted to the ICU, and need critical care or die in the ICU. Subgroup analyses identified female DPs, non-elderly DPs (< 65 years) and DPs with low Charlson score (< 3) to be at higher risk for SD, the two first subgroups trough more severe presentation (higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score-2 values; higher MODS scores, respectively). Male gender, age less than 65 years and mixed comorbidity were identified as prognostic factors for critical care need or death in the ICU, male and non-elderly DPs being more likely to develop MODS than their non-diabetic counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these data highlight the role of diabetes mellitus in the progression from dengue to SD through higher severity per se or the event of MODS.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Controlling arbovirus infection: high-throughput transcriptome and proteome insights

Arboviruses pose a significant threat to public health globally, demanding innovative approaches for their control. For this, a better understanding of the complex web of interactions established in arbovirus-infected mosquitoes is fundamental. High-throughput analyses allow a genome-wide view of arbovirus-induced alterations at different gene expression levels. This review provides a comprehensive perspective into the current literature in transcriptome and proteome landscapes in mosquitoes infected with arboviruses. It also proposes a coordinated research effort to define the critical nodes that determine arbovirus infection and transmission.

Severe dengue in the intensive care unit

Dengue fever is considered the most prolific vector-borne disease in the world, with its transmission rate increasing more than eight times in the last two decades. While most cases present mild to moderate symptoms, 5% of patients can develop severe disease. Although the mechanisms are yet not fully comprehended, immune-mediated activation leading to excessive cytokine expression is suggested as a cause of the two main findings in critical patients: increased vascular permeability that may shock and thrombocytopenia, and coagulopathy that can induce hemorrhage. The risk factors of severe disease include previous infection by a different serotype, specific genotypes associated with more efficient replication, certain genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends careful monitoring and prompt hospitalization of patients with warning signs or propensity for severe disease to reduce mortality. This review aims to update the diagnosis and management of patients with severe dengue in the intensive care unit.

Dengue virus serotype did not contribute to clinical severity or mortality in Taiwan's largest dengue outbreak in 2015

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) was the major serotype in the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan, while DENV-1 and DENV-3 were dominant between 2005 and 2014. We aimed to investigate whether DENV-2 contributed to disease severity and mortality in the outbreak in Kaohsiung city, Taiwan.

METHODS

We collected serum samples from dengue patients to detect the presence of DENV and determine the serotypes by using quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Our cohorts comprised 105 DENV-1-infected cases and 1,550 DENV-2-infected cases. Demographic data, DENV serotype, and comorbidities were covariates for univariate and multivariate analyses to explore the association with severity and mortality.

RESULTS

The results suggested that DENV-1 persisted and circulated, while DENV-2 was dominant during the dengue outbreak that occurred between September and December 2015. However, DENV-2 did not directly contribute to either severity or mortality. Aged patients and patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) had a higher risk of developing severe dengue. The mortality of dengue patients was related to a higher Charlson comorbidity index score and severe dengue. Among DENV-2-infected patients and older patients, preexisting anti-dengue IgG, DM, and moderate to severe CKD were associated with severe dengue. Moreover, female sex and severe dengue were associated with a significantly higher risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of timely serological testing in elderly patients to identify potential secondary infections and focus on the meticulous management of elderly patients with DM or moderate to severe CKD to reduce dengue-related death.

Mechanisms and clinical relevance of the bidirectional relationship of viral infections with metabolic diseases

Viruses have been present during all evolutionary steps on earth and have had a major effect on human history. Viral infections are still among the leading causes of death. Another public health concern is the increase of non-communicable metabolic diseases in the last four decades. In this Review, we revisit the scientific evidence supporting the presence of a strong bidirectional feedback loop between several viral infections and metabolic diseases. We discuss how viruses might lead to the development or progression of metabolic diseases and conversely, how metabolic diseases might increase the severity of a viral infection. Furthermore, we discuss the clinical relevance of the current evidence on the relationship between viral infections and metabolic disease and the present and future challenges that should be addressed by the scientific community and health authorities.