Seroprevalence of dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Zika among long-term expatriates in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Travel to Southeast Asia increases the likelihood of acquiring mosquito-borne Flavivirus infections such as dengue (DENV), Japanese encephalitis (JEV) and Zika viruses (ZIKV). Expatriates are long-term travellers who have a higher risk of mosquito-borne illness at their destination country. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the seroprevalence of DENV, JEV and ZIKV infections and the determinants contributing to seropositivity among expatriates living in Thailand.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed from December 2017 to February 2020. Expatriates from non-Flavivirus endemic countries were recruited. 5 mL of blood was collected for DENV 1-4, JEV and ZIKV antibody testing by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50). Individuals with vaccination histories or diagnoses for dengue, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever and tick-borne encephalitis were excluded.

RESULTS

Among 254 participants, most participants (83.1%) were male, the mean age was 65 years and the median duration of stay in Thailand was 6 years. Seroprevalence rate of any Flavivirus, non-specific DENV, DENV1-4, JEV and ZIKV were 34.3, 30.7, 20.5, 18.1, 18.9, 10.6, 4.7 and 2.8%, respectively. The presence of neutralizing antibodies against DENV1-4 positively correlates with the duration of stay in Thailand. DENV seropositivity was associated with living in urban areas (aOR 2.75, 95% CI 1.36-5.57). Expatriates were unlikely to have detectable anti-JEV antibodies regardless of time spent in a JEV-endemic area. No risk factors were identified that were significantly associated with JEV or ZIKV seropositivity. Only 48.4% received pre-travel counselling services, while only 18.9% visited a travel medicine specialist.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion (34.3%) of long-term expatriates living in Thailand were seropositive for flavivirus, mainly from dengue (30.7%). To minimize risk, travel medicine practitioners should provide adequate pre-travel health risk information on mosquito-borne flavivirus infection and offer advice on mosquito bite prevention strategies. Dengue vaccine might be considered in high-risk travellers such as long-term expatriate.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.

Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.

Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Measuring dengue illness intensity: Development and content validity of the dengue virus daily diary (DENV-DD)

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral infection causing an estimated 50-60 million cases of febrile illness globally per year, exacting considerable disease burden. Few instruments exist to assess the patient illness experience, with most based on healthcare provider assessment, lacking standardization in timepoints and symptom assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the content validity of the novel 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)', designed to measure symptom intensity and disease burden within outpatient infant to adult populations.

METHODS

The Dengue Illness Index Report Card was used as a foundation to create the DENV-DD, consisting of patient- and observer-reported outcome (PRO/ObsRO) instruments. In two South American dengue-endemic communities, qualitative combined concept elicitation and cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted among individuals and caregivers of children with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed dengue. Interviews were conducted across two rounds allowing DENV-DD modifications. A small-scale quantitative assessment of the DENV-DD was also conducted with data from an independent Dengue Human Infection Model (DHIM) to generate early evidence of feasibility of DENV-DD completion, instrument performance and insight into the sign/symptom trajectory over the course of illness.

RESULTS

Forty-eight participants were interviewed (20 adults, 20 older children/adolescents with their caregivers, 8 caregivers of younger children). A wide spectrum of signs/symptoms lasting 3-15 days were reported with fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite, and body weakness each reported by > 70% participants. DENV-DD instructions, items and response scales were understood, and items were considered relevant across ages. DHIM data supported feasibility of DENV-DD completion.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings demonstrate content validity of the DENV-DD (PRO/ObsRO instruments) in dengue-endemic populations. Psychometric and cultural validity studies are ongoing to support use of the DENV-DD in clinical studies.

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.

Association Between ADHD and COVID-19 Infection and Clinical Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study From Electronic Medical Records

OBJECTIVE

Though psychiatric illnesses have been associated with increased COVID-19 infection risk, limited information exists about the relationship between ADHD and COVID-19.

METHODS

Using the TriNetX COVID-19 Research Network, we examined the impact of ADHD diagnosis and treatment on COVID-19 infection rates and outcomes.

RESULTS

ADHD patients had greater risk of COVID-19 (risk ratio (RR) 1.11, 95% CI [1.09, 1.12]). Increased risk was higher in females than males, and highest among Asian and Black patients. Within 60 days after COVID-19 diagnosis, ADHD patients had lower rates of hospitalization (RR 0.91, 95% CI [0.86, 0.96]) and mechanical ventilation (RR 0.69, 95% CI [0.58, 0.83]), and a nonsignificant reduced death rate (RR 0.65, 95% CI [0.42, 1.02]). Patients who recently received ADHD medication had higher rates of COVID-19 (RR 1.13; 95% CI [1.10, 1.15]).

CONCLUSION

ADHD poses increased risk for COVID-19, but may reduce risk of severe outcomes. ADHD medications modestly impacted COVID-19 risk.

Entomological Risk Assessment for Dengue Virus Transmission during 2016-2020 in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Individual houses with high risks of dengue virus (DENV) transmission might be a source of virus transmission within the neighborhood. We conducted an entomological risk assessment for DENV transmission at the household level, comprising family cohort members residing in the same location, to assess the risk for dengue virus transmitted by mosquito vectors. The studies were conducted in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand, during 2016-2020. Entomological investigations were performed in 35 cohort families on day 1 and day 14 after receiving dengue case reports. DENV was found in 22 Aedes samples (4.9%) out of 451 tested samples. A significantly higher DENV infection rate was detected in vectors collected on day 1 (6.64%) compared to those collected on day 14 (1.82%). Annual vector surveillance was carried out in 732 houses, with 1002 traps catching 3653 Aedes females. The majority of the 13,228 water containers examined were made from plastic and clay, with used tires serving as a primary container, with 59.55% larval abundance. Larval indices, as indicators of dengue epidemics and to evaluate disease and vector control approaches, were calculated. As a result, high values of larval indices indicated the considerably high risk of dengue transmission in these communities.

Healthcare Personnel (HCP) Attitudes About Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination After Emergency Use Authorization

BACKGROUND

We previously reported on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination intent among healthcare personnel (HCP) before emergency use authorization. We found widespread hesitancy and a substantial proportion of HCP did not intend to vaccinate.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of HCP, including clinical and nonclinical staff, researchers, and trainees between 21 February and 19 March 2021. The survey evaluated vaccine attitudes, beliefs, intent, and acceptance.

RESULTS

Overall, 3981 (87.7%) of respondents had already received a COVID-19 vaccine or planned to get vaccinated. There were significant differences in vaccine acceptance by gender, age, race, and hospital role. Males (93.7%) were more likely than females (89.8%) to report vaccine acceptance (P < .001). Mean age was higher among those reporting vaccine acceptance (P < .001). Physicians and scientists showed the highest acceptance rate (97.3%), whereas staff in ancillary services showed the lowest acceptance rate (79.9%). Unvaccinated respondents were more likely to be females, to have refused vaccines in the past due to reasons other than illness or allergy, to care for COVID-19 patients, or to rely on themselves when making vaccination decision. Vaccine acceptance was more than twice previous intent among Black respondents, an increase from 30.8% to 73.8%, and across all hospital roles with all > 80% vaccine acceptance.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of HCP were vaccinated, much higher than reporting intent before vaccine was available. However, many HCP-particularly ancillary services-are still hesitant. Feasible and effective interventions to address the hesitant, including individually-tailored education strategies are needed, or vaccine can be mandated.

Longitudinal Analysis of Dengue Virus-Specific Memory T Cell Responses and Their Association With Clinical Outcome in Subsequent DENV Infection

Memory T cells resulting from primary dengue virus (DENV) infection are hypothesized to influence the clinical outcome of subsequent DENV infection. However, the few studies involving prospectively collected blood samples have found weak and inconsistent associations with outcome and variable temporal trends in DENV-specific memory T cell responses between subjects. This study used both ex-vivo and cultured ELISPOT assays to further evaluate the associations between DENV serotype-cross-reactive memory T cells and severity of secondary infection. Using ex-vivo ELISPOT assays, frequencies of memory T cells secreting IFN-γ in response to DENV structural and non-structural peptide pools were low in PBMC from multiple time points prior to symptomatic secondary DENV infection and showed a variable response to infection. There were no differences in responses between subjects who were not hospitalized (NH, n=6) and those who were hospitalized with dengue hemorrhagic fever (hDHF, n=4). In contrast, responses in cultured ELISPOT assays were more reliably detectable prior to secondary infection and showed more consistent increases after infection. Responses in cultured ELISPOT assays were higher in individuals with hDHF (n=8) compared to NH (n=9) individuals before the secondary infection, with no difference between these groups after infection. These data demonstrate an association of pre-existing DENV-specific memory responses with the severity of illness in subsequent DENV infection, and suggest that frequencies of DENV-reactive T cells measured after short-term culture may be of particular importance for assessing the risk for more severe dengue disease.

Knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of severe dengue impede vaccine evaluation

The most severe consequences of dengue virus infection include shock, haemorrhage, and major organ failure; however, the frequency of these manifestations varies, and the relative contribution of pre-existing anti-dengue virus antibodies, virus characteristics, and host factors (including age and comorbidities) are not well understood. Reliable characterisation of the epidemiology of severe dengue first depends on the use of consistent definitions of disease severity. As vaccine trials have shown, severe dengue is a crucial interventional endpoint, yet the infrequency of its occurrence necessitates the inclusion of thousands of study participants to appropriately compare its frequency among participants who have and have not been vaccinated. Hospital admission is frequently used as a proxy for severe dengue; however, lack of specificity and variability in clinical practices limit the reliability of this approach. Although previous infection with a dengue virus is the best characterised risk factor for developing severe dengue, the influence of the timing between dengue virus infections and the sequence of dengue virus infections on disease severity is only beginning to be elucidated. To improve our understanding of the diverse factors that shape the clinical spectrum of disease resulting from dengue virus infection, prospective, community-based and clinic-based immunological, virological, genetic, and clinical studies across a range of ages and geographical regions are needed.

Correlation between reported dengue illness history and seropositivity in rural Thailand

In the latest World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for Dengvaxia implementation, either serological testing or a person's history of prior dengue illness may be used as supporting evidence to identify dengue virus (DENV)-immune individuals eligible for vaccination, in areas with limited capacity for laboratory confirmation. This analysis aimed to estimate the concordance between self-reported dengue illness histories and seropositivity in a prospective cohort study for dengue virus infection in Kamphaeng Phet province, a dengue-endemic area in northern Thailand. The study enrolled 2,076 subjects from 516 multigenerational families, with a median age of 30.6 years (range 0-90 years). Individual and family member dengue illness histories were obtained by questionnaire. Seropositivity was defined based on hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Overall seropositivity for DENV was 86.5% among those aged 9-45 years, which increased with age. 18.5% of participants reported a history of dengue illness prior to enrollment; 30.1% reported a previous DENV infection in the family, and 40.1% reported DENV infection in either themselves or a family member. Relative to seropositivity by HAI in the vaccine candidate group, the sensitivity and specificity of individual prior dengue illness history were 18.5% and 81.6%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity of reported dengue illness in a family member were 29.8% and 68.0%, and of either the individual or a family member were 40.1% and 60.5%. Notably, 13.4% of individuals reporting prior dengue illness were seronegative. Given the high occurrence of asymptomatic and mild DENV infection, self-reported dengue illness history is poorly sensitive for prior exposure and may misclassify individuals as 'exposed' when they were not. This analysis highlights that a simple, highly sensitive, and highly specific test for determining serostatus prior to Dengvaxia vaccination is urgently needed.

Assessment of U.S. health care personnel (HCP) attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in a large university health care system

Background

As a priority group, healthcare personnel (HCP) will be key to success of COVID-19 vaccination programs. The purpose of this study was to assess HCP willingness to get vaccinated and identify specific concerns that would undermine vaccination efforts.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of HCP, including clinical and non-clinical staff, researchers, and trainees between November 23 ^rd ,2020 and December 5 ^th ,2020. The survey evaluated attitudes, beliefs and willingness to get vaccinated.

Results

A total of 5287 respondents had a mean age of 42.5 years (SD=13.56), and were 72.8% female (n=3842). Overall 57.5 % of individuals expressed intent to receive COVID-19 vaccine. 80.4% were physicians and scientists representing the largest group. 33.6% of registered nurses, 31.6% of allied health professionals, and 32% of master’s level clinicians were unsure they would take the vaccine (p<.001). Respondents who were older, males, White, or Asian were more likely to get vaccinated compared to other groups. Vaccine safety, potential adverse events, efficacy and speed of vaccine development dominated concerns listed by participants. Fewer (54.0%) providers of direct care vs. non-care providers (62.4%), and 52.0% of those who had provided care for COVID-19 patients (vs. 60.6% of those who had not) indicated they would take the vaccine if offered (p<.001).

Conclusions

We observed that self-reported willingness to receive vaccination against COVID-19 differs by hospital roles, with physicians and research scientists showing the highest acceptance. These findings highlight important heterogeneity in personal attitudes among HCPs around COVID-19 vaccines and highlight a need for tailored communication strategies.

Comparative Analyses of Historical Trends in Confirmed Dengue Illnesses Detected at Public Hospitals in Bangkok and Northern Thailand, 2002-2018

Dengue is a re-emerging global public health problem, the most common arbovirus causing human disease in the world, and a major cause of hospitalization in endemic countries causing significant economic burden. Data were analyzed from passive surveillance of hospital-attended dengue cases from 2002 to 2018 at Phramongkutklao Hospital (PMKH) located in Bangkok, Thailand, and Kamphaeng Phet Provincial Hospital (KPPH) located in the lower northern region of Thailand. At PMKH, serotype 1 proved to be the most common strain of the virus, whereas at KPPH, serotypes 1, 2, and 3 were the most common strains from 2006 to 2008, 2009 to 2012, and 2013 to 2015, respectively. The 11–17 years age-group made up the largest proportion of patients impacted by dengue illnesses during the study period at both sites. At KPPH, dengue virus (DENV)-3 was responsible for most cases of dengue fever (DF), whereas it was DENV-1 at PMKH. In cases where dengue hemorrhagic fever was the clinical diagnosis, DENV-2 was the predominant serotype at KPPH, whereas at PMKH, it was DENV-1. The overall disease prevalence remained consistent across the two study sites with DF being the predominant clinical diagnosis as the result of an acute secondary dengue infection, representing 40.7% of overall cases at KPPH and 56.8% at PMKH. The differences seen between these sites could be a result of climate change increasing the length of dengue season and shifts in migration patterns of these populations from rural to urban areas and vice versa.

Surveying Health-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors of U.S.-Based Residents Traveling Internationally to Visit Friends and Relatives

U.S. residents traveling internationally to regions with increased risk of infectious diseases infrequently seek pretravel health care. First- and second-generation immigrants traveling to their countries of origin and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) have increased risk of certain infectious diseases and are more likely to participate in high-risk activities. In an online survey of 994 U.S. residents with two foreign-born parents who went on at least one international trip to an at-risk country (defined as having a typhoid vaccine recommendation) in the prior 3 years, respondents were questioned about their international travel over the previous 3 years and their knowledge and individual risk of disease. Participants reported infrequently seeking pretravel health information (32% of trips) or consulting a healthcare provider before their trips (15% of trips). Participants reported seeking pretravel health information less often for VFR trips home (22%) than to other regions (30%). Perceived risk of disease was directly associated with seeking pretravel health information (82% for the highest and 13% for the lowest perceived risk), consulting a healthcare provider (55% for the highest and 5% for the lowest perceived risk), and reporting travel-associated illness (54% for the highest and 10% for the lowest perceived risk). Respondents were generally knowledgeable about cholera, hepatitis B, malaria, and rabies but had low knowledge of hepatitis A and typhoid. Understanding where VFR travelers lack understanding of disease transmission and which travelers are ideal targets for interventions has the potential to shape physician recommendations and public health strategy in this vulnerable population.

An Innovative, Prospective, Hybrid Cohort-Cluster Study Design to Characterize Dengue Virus Transmission in Multigenerational Households in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Difficulties inherent in the identification of immune correlates of protection or severe disease have challenged the development and evaluation of dengue vaccines. There persist substantial gaps in knowledge about the complex effects of age and sequential dengue virus (DENV) exposures on these correlations. To address these gaps, we were conducting a novel family-based cohort-cluster study for DENV transmission in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. The study began in 2015 and is funded until at least 2023. As of May 2019, 2,870 individuals in 485 families were actively enrolled. The families comprise at least 1 child born into the study as a newborn, 1 other child, a parent, and a grandparent. The median age of enrolled participants is 21 years (range 0–93 years). Active surveillance is performed to detect acute dengue illnesses, and annual blood testing identifies subclinical seroconversions. Extended follow-up of this cohort will detect sequential infections and correlate antibody kinetics and sequence of infections with disease outcomes. The central goal of this prospective study is to characterize how different DENV exposure histories within multigenerational family units, from DENV-naive infants to grandparents with multiple prior DENV exposures, affect transmission, disease, and protection at the level of the individual, household, and community.

Key Findings and Comparisons From Analogous Case-Cluster Studies for Dengue Virus Infection Conducted in Machala, Ecuador, and Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Dengue viruses (DENV) pose a significant and increasing threat to human health across broad regions of the globe. Currently, prevention, control, and treatment strategies are limited. Promising interventions are on the horizon, including multiple vaccine candidates under development and a renewed and innovative focus on controlling the vector, Aedes aegypti. However, significant gaps persist in our understanding of the similarities and differences in DENV epidemiology across regions of potential implementation and evaluation. In this manuscript, we highlight and compare findings from two analogous cluster-based studies for DENV transmission and pathogenesis conducted in Thailand and Ecuador to identify key features and questions for further pursuit. Despite a remarkably similar incidence of DENV infection among enrolled neighborhood contacts at the two sites, we note a higher occurrence of secondary infection and severe illness in Thailand compared to Ecuador. A higher force of infection in Thailand, defined as the incidence of infection among susceptible individuals, is suggested by the higher number of captured Aedes mosquitoes per household, the increasing proportion of asymptomatic infections with advancing age, and the high proportion of infections identified as secondary-type infections by serology. These observations should be confirmed in long-term, parallel prospective cohort studies conducted across regions, which would advantageously permit characterization of baseline immune status (susceptibility) and contemporaneous assessment of risks and risk factors for dengue illness.

How well do the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators predict incident fractures? Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

This study reports that both FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated fractures in Australian men and women, particularly in those with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Major osteoporotic fractures were poorly predicted, while both calculators performed acceptably well for hip fractures.

INTRODUCTION

This study assessed the ability of the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators to predict fractures in Australian women and men.

METHODS

Women (n = 809) and men (n = 821) aged 50-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, were included. Fracture risk was estimated using FRAX and Garvan calculators with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) (FRAX_BMD, FRAX_noBMD, Garvan_BMD, Garvan_noBMD). Incident major osteoporotic (MOF), fragility, and hip fractures over the following 10 years were verified radiologically. Differences between observed and predicted numbers of fractures were assessed using a chi-squared test. Diagnostics indexes were calculated.

RESULTS

In women, 115 MOF, 184 fragility, and 42 hip fractures occurred. For men, there were 73, 109, and 17 fractures, respectively. FRAX underestimated MOFs, regardless of sex or inclusion of BMD. FRAX accurately predicted hip fractures, except in women with BMD (20 predicted, p = 0.004). Garvan underestimated fragility fractures except in men using BMD (88 predicted, p = 0.109). Garvan accurately predicted hip fractures except for women without BMD (12 predicted, p < 0.001). Fractures were underestimated primarily in the osteopenia and osteoporosis groups; MOFs in the normal BMD group were only underestimated by FRAX_BMD and fragility fractures by Garvan_noBMD, both in men. AUROCs were not different between scores with and without BMD, except for fragility fractures predicted by Garvan in women (0.696, 95% CI 0.652-0.739 and 0.668, 0.623-0.712, respectively, p = 0.008) and men, which almost reached significance (0.683, 0.631-0.734, and 0.667, 0.615-0.719, respectively, p = 0.051). Analyses of sensitivity and specificity showed overall that MOFs and fragility fractures were poorly predicted by both FRAX and Garvan, while hip fractures were acceptably predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated MOF and fragility fractures, particularly in individuals with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Hip fractures were predicted better by both calculators. AUROC analyses suggest that Garvan_BMD performed better than Garvan_noBMD for prediction of fragility fractures.

Epidemiology and Transmission of Respiratory Infections in Thai Army Recruits: A Prospective Cohort Study

Military recruits are at high risk of respiratory infections. However, limited data exist on military populations in tropical settings, where the epidemiology of respiratory infections differs substantially from temperate settings. We enrolled recruits undertaking a 10-week military training at two Royal Thai Army barracks between May 2014 and July 2015. We used a multiplex respiratory panel to analyze nose and throat swabs collected at the start and end of the training period, and from participants experiencing respiratory symptoms during follow-up. Paired sera were tested for influenza seroconversion using a hemagglutinin inhibition assay. Overall rates of upper respiratory illness and influenza-like illness were 3.1 and 2.0 episodes per 100 person-weeks, respectively. A pathogen was detected in 96% of samples. The most commonly detected microbes were Haemophilus influenzae type B (62.7%) or non–type B (58.2%) and rhinovirus (22.4%). At baseline, bacterial colonization was high and included H. influenzae type B (82.3%), H. influenzae non–type B (31.5%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (14.6%), Staphylococcus aureus (8.5%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (8.5%). At the end of follow-up, colonization with H. influenzae non–type B had increased to 74.1%, and S. pneumoniae to 33.6%. In the serology subset, the rate of influenza infection was 3.4 per 100 person-months; 58% of influenza infections resulted in clinical disease. Our study provides key data on the epidemiology and transmission of respiratory pathogens in tropical settings. Our results emphasize the need for improved infection prevention and control in military environments, given the high burden of illness and potential for intense transmission of respiratory pathogens.

Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure

The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 10-year timeframe. Across a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on sensitivity in high-transmission settings and on specificity in low-transmission settings. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that sensitivity and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high, but only in high-transmission settings. Requirements for reducing relative risk and achieving cost-effectiveness from an individual perspective were more restricted, due to the fact that those who test negative pay for screening but receive no benefit. Our results predict that cost-effectiveness could be achieved only in high-transmission areas of dengue-endemic countries with a relatively high per capita GDP, such as Panamá (13,680 USD), Brazil (8,649 USD), México (8,201 USD), or Thailand (5,807 USD). In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in some high-transmission settings, provided that screening is highly specific (to minimize individual harm), at least moderately sensitive (to maximize population benefit), and sufficiently inexpensive (depending on the setting).

Longitudinal Analysis of Memory B and T Cell Responses to Dengue Virus in a 5-Year Prospective Cohort Study in Thailand

Prior exposure to dengue virus (DENV) has a profound impact on the outcome of infection, which varies according to the interval between infections. Antibodies secreted by B cells and cytokines secreted by T cells are thought to contribute both to protective immunity against DENV and the pathogenesis of dengue disease. We analyzed peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) collected from Thai children over a 5-year prospective cohort study to define the dynamics of DENV-specific memory B and T cell responses and the impact of symptomatic or subclinical DENV infections. To measure B cell responses, PBMC were stimulated with IL-2 plus R848 and culture supernatants were tested for DENV-binding antibodies by ELISA. To measure T cell responses, PBMC were stimulated in dual-color ELISPOT assays with overlapping peptide pools of structural and non-structural proteins from the four DENV types. B cell responses were low to one or more DENV types prior to symptomatic infection and increased with reactivity to all four types after infection. Subjects who had a subclinical infection or who did not experience a DENV infection during the study period showed strong memory B cell responses to all four DENV types. T cell responses to DENV peptides demonstrated a cytokine hierarchy of IFN-γ > IL-2 > IFN-γ/IL-2. T cell responses were low or absent prior to secondary infections. The trends in T cell responses to DENV peptides over 3 year post-infection were highly variable, but subjects who had experienced a secondary DENV1 infection showed higher cytokine responses compared to subjects who had experienced a secondary DENV2 or subclinical infection. The longitudinal nature of our study demonstrates persistent memory B cell responses over years and a lasting but variable impact of secondary DENV infection on DENV-specific T cell responses.

Protective versus pathologic pre-exposure cytokine profiles in dengue virus infection

Background

Hyperendemic circulation of all four types of dengue virus (DENV-1-4) has expanded globally, fueling concern for increased incidence of severe dengue. While the majority of DENV infections are subclinical, epidemiologic studies suggest that type-cross-reactive immunity can influence disease outcome in subsequent infections. The mechanisms controlling these differential clinical outcomes remain poorly defined.

Methodology/Principal findings

Blood samples were collected from a cohort of school-aged Thai children who subsequently experienced a subclinical DENV infection or developed dengue illness. PBMC collected prior to infection were stimulated in vitro with DENV and the secretion of 30 cytokines was measured using a multiplexed, bead-based array. Significant differences were found in cytokine production based on both the type of DENV used for stimulation and the occurrence of clinical illness. Secretion of IL-15 and MCP-1 was significantly higher by PBMC of subjects who later developed symptomatic DENV infection. In addition, IL-6 was produced by PBMC from all subjects who subsequently developed symptomatic infection, versus 59% of subjects who had subclinical infection. Secretion of IL-12, IL-2R, MIP-1α, RANTES, GM-CSF, and TNFα was significantly lower by PBMC from subjects with symptomatic infection.

Conclusions/Significance

These data demonstrate significant differences in pre-existing immune responses to DENV associated with the clinical outcome of subsequent infection. The finding of higher levels of some cytokines in subjects with symptomatic infection and higher levels of other cytokines in subjects with subclinical infection supports the existence of both protective and pathologic immune profiles. Clinical-immunological correlations identified in the context of natural DENV infection may be useful for evaluating immune responses to dengue vaccines.

Dengue is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne infectious diseases worldwide. It is caused by one of four viruses, types 1–4, and ranges in severity from subclinical (mild or no symptoms) to dengue fever (febrile illness with headache and bone pain), or less frequently, dengue hemorrhagic fever, where patients experience leaky blood vessels, sometimes significant bleeding, and may be severe enough to cause death. While many risk factors have been associated with development of severe dengue, sequential infection with different virus types is a major factor, implying that the immune response generated after an initial infection is partly responsible for making subsequent exposure clinically worse. This study sought to identify profiles of immune markers that correlate with increased or decreased risk of dengue. Using samples from individuals ~5 months prior to dengue virus infection, who later experienced either subclinical infection or overt disease, we modeled virus exposure in vitro and compared the production of various immune proteins between the two outcome groups. Three of the proteins studied were produced at higher levels by subjects who subsequently had dengue, and six of the proteins were produced at higher levels by subjects who subsequently had subclinical infection. These results help define what constitutes beneficial versus potentially harmful immune responses, aiding in the design of effective dengue vaccines.

Association between semi-quantitative microbial load and respiratory symptoms among Thai military recruits: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assays have improved diagnostic sensitivity for a wide range of pathogens. However, co-detection of multiple agents and bacterial colonization make it difficult to distinguish between asymptomatic infection or illness aetiology. We assessed whether semi-quantitative microbial load data can differentiate between symptomatic and asymptomatic states for common respiratory pathogens.

METHODS

We obtained throat and nasal swab samples from military trainees at two Thai Army barracks. Specimens were collected at the start and end of 10-week training periods (non-acute samples), and from individuals who developed upper respiratory tract infection during training (acute samples). We analysed the samples using a commercial multiplex respiratory panel comprising 33 bacterial, viral and fungal targets. We used random effects tobit models to compare cycle threshold (Ct) value distributions from non-acute and acute samples.

RESULTS

We analysed 341 non-acute and 145 acute swab samples from 274 participants. Haemophilus influenzae type B was the most commonly detected microbe (77.4% of non-acute and 64.8% of acute samples). In acute samples, nine specific microbe pairs were detected more frequently than expected by chance. Regression models indicated significantly lower microbial load in non-acute relative to acute samples for H. influenzae non-type B, Streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus, although it was not possible to identify a Ct-value threshold indicating causal etiology for any of these organisms.

CONCLUSIONS

Semi-quantitative measures of microbial concentration did not reliably differentiate between illness and asymptomatic colonization, suggesting that clinical symptoms may not always be directly related to microbial load for common respiratory infections.

The Emergence of Zika Virus: A Narrative Review

Zika virus (ZIKV) is yet another arbovirus that is rapidly emerging on a global scale, on the heels of a chikungunya epidemic in the Americas that began in 2013. A ZIKV epidemic that began in Brazil in 2015 has now spread rapidly to more than 30 countries in the Americas and the Caribbean, infecting more than 2 million inhabitants. This epidemic currently continues unabated. The explosive nature of recent outbreaks and concerning links to Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly are incompletely understood. Also unknown is the relative importance of sexual transmission of ZIKV and asymptomatic ZIKV infections to the overall burden of transmission. The limited understanding of ZIKV presents an enormous challenge for responses to this rapidly emerging threat to human health. This article reviews the existing literature on ZIKV and proposes critical questions for vaccine development and other areas of needed research.

Individual Differences and Attitudes Toward Rape: A Meta-Analytic Review

An overview discusses (a) the importance of rape attitudes, (b) the major rape attitude measures, and (c) the applicability of four theoretical frameworks of hostility toward women to rape attitude maintenance. Findings from 72 studies of rape attitudes and individual differences were quantitatively synthesized. The meta-analysis revealed more rape acceptance for men, older people, and people from lower socioeconomic status backgrounds. For men, cognitive predispositions toward perpetrating rape were strong predictors of rape acceptance. For women, experience as and exposure to rape victims were associated with slightly less rape acceptance. Consistent with some theoretical predictions, traditional gender role beliefs, adversarial sexual beliefs, needs for power and dominance, aggressiveness and anger, and conservative political beliefs predicted rape acceptance. Implications for rape education programs and research are discussed.

Chikungunya: acute fever, rash and debilitating arthralgias in a returning traveler from Haiti

The following case report details a case of chikungunya fever in a returning traveler from Haiti. The report highlights the clinical presentation and natural history of the disease, and emphasizes that chikungunya has become established in the western hemisphere, with a resultant need for heightened provider awareness.

Retention of Black and White Populations in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial

Background: Adequate retention of Black (African-American) participants in long-term, randomized trials is important for achieving broadly applicable results. Purpose: To determine the incidence of retention failures and the individual and study site factors associated with retention failure among White and Black participants from the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), a phase III study of selenium and vitamin E for prevention of prostate cancer. Methods: SELECT randomized 35,533 participants from 427 study sites. Age eligibility was &gt;55 years for Whites, &gt;50 years for Blacks; race was determined by self-report. The primary analysis included 28,118 (87%) White and 4,322 (13%) Black men. Time to retention failure was defined as days to the earliest of either (1) the second consecutive missed in-person or phone visit or (2) refusal of future contact with study staff. Covariates included participant demographic and clinical characteristics, reasons for participating in SELECT and study site characteristics. Results: In SELECT, Blacks had a higher age-adjusted risk of disengagement than Whites [HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.7–2.0; p-value &lt; .0001]. Younger Black participants, age 50–54, representing 32% of Black participants, were at three times the risk of disengagement than those age 65+ [HR = 3.34, 95%CI 2.24,4.94, p &lt; .0001]. Blacks age 65+ had 1.6 times the risk of disengagement than Whites age 65+ [HR = 1.58, 95%CI 1.37, 1.83, p &lt; .0001]. By six years post-randomization, 83% of Whites were still retained on the study compared to 68% of Blacks. Among Whites, participant risk factors for disengagement were Hispanic ethnicity, graduate degree, living alone or current smoking; among Blacks, younger age and current smoking were risk factors. The site characteristic associated with disengagement among both racial groups was staff missing SELECT training sessions. Sites with a low staff attendance at training sessions had a high percentage of disengaged participants of either race. Both Whites and Blacks at sites receiving SELECT retention and adherence grants had lower risks for retention failure. Conclusion: These results may be useful in identifying personal and study site characteristics to guide recruitment and enhance retention of both Black and White men in long-term prevention trials.

A shorter time interval between first and second dengue infections is associated with protection from clinical illness in a school-based cohort in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Despite the strong association between secondary dengue virus (DENV) infections and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), the majority of secondary infections are subclinical or mild. The determinants of clinical severity remain unclear, though studies indicate a titer-dependent and time-dependent role of cross-protective anti-DENV antibodies.

METHODS

Data from 2 sequential prospective cohort studies were analyzed for subclinical and symptomatic DENV infections in schoolchildren in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand (1998-2002 and 2004-2007). Children experiencing ≥ 1 DENV infection were selected as the population for analysis (contributing 2169 person-years of follow-up).

RESULTS

In total, 1696 children had ≥ 1 DENV infection detected during their enrollment; 268 experienced 2 or more infections. A shorter time interval between infections was associated with subclinical infection in children seronegative for DENV at enrollment, for whom a second-detected DENV infection is more likely to reflect a true second infection (average of 2.6 years between infections for DHF, 1.9 for DF, and 1.6 for subclinical infections).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support a pathogenesis model where cross-reactive antibodies wane from higher-titer, protective levels to lower-titer, detrimental levels. This is one of the first studies of human subjects to suggest a window of cross-protection following DENV infection since Sabin's challenge studies in the 1940s.

Preexisting Japanese encephalitis virus neutralizing antibodies and increased symptomatic dengue illness in a school-based cohort in Thailand

Background

Dengue viruses (DENVs) and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) have significant cross-reactivity in serological assays; the clinical implications of this remain undefined. An improved understanding of whether and how JEV immunity modulates the clinical outcome of DENV infection is important as large-scale DENV vaccine trials will commence in areas where JEV is co-endemic and/or JEV immunization is routine.

Methods and Findings

The association between preexisting JEV neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) and the clinical severity of DENV infection was evaluated in a prospective school-based cohort in Thailand that captured asymptomatic, non-hospitalized, and hospitalized DENV infections. Covariates considered included age, baseline DENV antibody status, school of attendance, epidemic year, and infecting DENV serotype. 942 children experienced at least one DENV infection between 1998 and 2002, out of 3,687 children who were enrolled for at least one full year. In crude analysis, the presence of JEV NAbs was associated with an increased occurrence of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.08–2.23) but not hospitalized illness or dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The association was strongest in children with negative DENV serology (DENV-naive) (OR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.12–6.72), for whom the presence of JEV NAbs was also associated with a symptomatic illness of longer duration (5.4 days for JEV NAb+ versus 2.6 days for JEV NAb-, p = 0.048). JEV NAbs were associated with increased DHF in younger children with multitypic DENV NAb profiles (OR = 4.05, 95% CI: 1.18 to 13.87). Among those with JEV NAbs, the association with symptomatic illness did not vary by antibody titer.

Interpretation

The prior existence of JEV NAbs was associated with an increased probability of symptomatic as compared to asymptomatic DENV illness. These findings are in contrast to previous studies suggesting an attenuating effect of heterologous flavivirus immunity on DENV disease severity.

Dengue viruses (DENVs) and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) have significant cross-reactivity in serological assays, but the possible clinical implications of this remain poorly understood. Interactions between these flaviviruses are potentially important for public health because wild-type JEV continues to co-circulate with DENV in Southeast Asia, the area with the highest burden of DENV illness, and JEV vaccination coverage in this region is high. In this study, we examined how preexisting JEV neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) influenced the clinical severity of subsequent DENV infection using data from a prospective school-based cohort study in Thailand that captured a wide range of clinical severities, including asymptomatic, non-hospitalized, and hospitalized DENV infections. We found that the prior existence of JEV NAbs was associated with an increased occurrence of symptomatic versus asymptomatic DENV infection. This association was most notable in DENV-naives, in whom the presence of JEV NAbs was also associated with an illness of longer duration. These findings suggest that the issue of heterologous flavivirus immunity and DENV infection merits renewed attention and interest and that DENV vaccine developers might incorporate detailed assessments of preexisting immunity to non-DENV flaviviruses and histories of vaccination against non-DENV flaviviruses in evaluating DENV vaccine safety and efficacy.

Factors influencing dengue virus isolation by C6/36 cell culture and mosquito inoculation of nested PCR-positive clinical samples

Dengue viral isolation is necessary for definitive diagnosis, pathogenesis and evolutionary research, vaccine candidates, and diagnostic materials. Using standardized techniques, we analyzed isolation rates of 1,544 randomly selected polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples, representing all four dengue serotypes, from patients with serologically confirmed dengue infections and evaluated whether clinical and laboratory results could be predictive of isolation using standard and mosquito isolation techniques. Viruses were isolated from 62.5% of the samples by direct application to C6/36 cells and increased to 79.4% when amplifying C6/36 negative samples by intrathorasic inoculation in Toxyrhynchites splendens mosquitoes. High viremia, measured by reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR, was a strong predictor for viral isolation by either method. Isolation was most successful in samples collected early in the disease, had low antibody levels, temperatures greater than 38°C, and had a final clinical diagnosis of dengue fever. Dengue serotypes also played a role in the success of viral isolation.

Dengue plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) in primary and secondary dengue virus infections: How alterations in assay conditions impact performance

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a worsening global health problem. The plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) is currently considered to be the "gold standard" to characterize and quantify circulating levels of anti-DENV neutralizing antibody (NAb). Many variations of the PRNT are currently in use and neither the assay nor its performance conditions have been standardized or harmonized between laboratories. We used a well-characterized panel of acute and late convalescent follow-up sera samples from children experiencing primary and secondary DENV infections to evaluate the performance of the dengue PRNT under a variety of testing conditions. Investigators varied cell type, control virus passage, and the use of complement across multiple assay runs of the same sample panel. Our findings indicate wide variation in PRNT titer results in response to varied testing conditions.

Men who target women: specificity of target, generality of aggressive behavior

Two studies examined the effects of individual differences identified by the Confluence Model of aggression against women [Malamuth Linz, Hevey et al., 1995] and the General Aggression Model [GAM: Anderson and Carnagey, 2004] as predictors of male-on-female aggression. Study 1, a correlational study, found that hostile masculinity predicts self-reported sexual aggression independently of nonsexual aggression against women, and is itself predicted by proneness to general hostility, masculine gender role stress, and violent attitudes toward women. Furthermore, hostility toward women independently predicted sexual and nonsexual aggression against women, above the effects of general attitudes toward violence and general levels of hostility and aggression. Study 2, an experimental study, found that under high provocation, high hostility toward women predicted increases in male nonsexual aggression against women and slight decreases in male aggression against men. This effect remained significant even after controlling for general attitudes toward violence and for general levels of hostility and aggression, indicating that males who are highly hostile toward women specifically target women and that their aggression toward women generalizes beyond sexual aggression. The findings are discussed in terms of a model that integrates the Confluence Model with GAM.

CYP17 and breast cancer risk: the polymorphism in the 5' flanking area of the gene does not influence binding to Sp-1

The ability of a motif of the CYP17 5' untranslated region, created by a polymorphic T to C substitution, to bind to the human transcription factor Sp-1 was investigated. No binding of any of the polymorphic alleles was observed in electromobility shift assay. No other sequence within +1 to +100 of each of the CYP17 alleles formed complex with the Sp-1 or enhanced binding to the polymorphic CACC box. Genotyping of 510 breast cancer patients and 201 controls revealed no difference in genotype frequencies. Age at onset, tumor grade, lymph node status and distant metastases, stage, and estrogen and progesterone receptor status were not associated with the CYP17 genotype.

Renal carcinoma and dialysis in end-stage renal disease

We describe five patients receiving long-term hemodialysis (mean duration of 6.4 years) in whom eight renal carcinomas were found. In four patients, the carcinoma was confirmed by tissue pathology, while the fifth patient had multiple (four) areas of neovascularity on selective renal arteriography. Two patients died of metastases. In four patients the diagnosis was initially made with selective renal arteriography and in the remaining one, with sonography and computerized tomography. In three of the four arteriography showed diffuse cystic degeneration; pathologic findings revealed renal carcinoma and the changes of "end-stage" disease. Two patients had brief pharmacologic immunosuppression during unsuccessful renal transplantation six years earlier. These cases demonstrate an apparently increased risk of renal carcinomas in end-stage renal disease, a risk that appears to be independent of pharmacologic immunosuppression.